Author Topic: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev  (Read 1089 times)

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Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #15 on: June 15, 2017, 06:15:37 PM »
I'd love that kinda of deal for our triplets post ELC.
Except our triplets all put up more points in their first full season than Drouin has. It's gonna get ugly with those contracts

And that's why I'd love it. ;D

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #16 on: June 15, 2017, 06:34:46 PM »
But still at the end of the day I think Montreal just gets the best player, both now and in the future.

That's probably true - definitely now, and Drouin's ceiling is definitely higher than Sergachev's, so quite likely in the future, as well. The currently unanswerable question is obviously how much better with Drouin be in the future?

Also, looking at the make up of the respective teams, I feel like the Habs might have had more use for Sergachev than Drouin (though, that's pretty dependant on them re-signing Radulov - if he re-signs, they become a reasonable offensive threat, and maybe need to rely on Price to steal them points a little less); while the Lightning could afford to move Drouin without really losing much on offence.

Ultimately, I think, while the Habs got the better player, if Radulov doesn't re-sign with Montreal and Stamkos can have a relatively healthy season, I think Tampa may have done more to potentially improve their team.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #17 on: June 15, 2017, 06:50:49 PM »

This trade kind of hammers home an intriguing what if scenario. In 2013 the Lightning had Palat, Johnson and Killorn all in the AHL and producing like gangbusters. They also had Kucherov in the system. Their strength, at the NHL level, was unquestionably a forward group with Stamkos, St. Louis and Lecavalier.

Despite this with the 3rd pick they pass on Seth Jones and pick Drouin. If Yzerman had simply had a better read of his prospects that team could be scary good right now.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline jdh1

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #18 on: June 15, 2017, 08:50:51 PM »

This trade kind of hammers home an intriguing what if scenario. In 2013 the Lightning had Palat, Johnson and Killorn all in the AHL and producing like gangbusters. They also had Kucherov in the system. Their strength, at the NHL level, was unquestionably a forward group with Stamkos, St. Louis and Lecavalier.

Despite this with the 3rd pick they pass on Seth Jones and pick Drouin. If Yzerman had simply had a better read of his prospects that team could be scary good right now.
  True,but they would be in the same surplus to protect in the expansion if they drafted Jones.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #19 on: June 15, 2017, 11:21:09 PM »
  True,but they would be in the same surplus to protect in the expansion if they drafted Jones.

Well, not exactly the same. They'd be at risk of losing someone like Garrison but even then that's a hell of a core group going forward.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #20 on: June 16, 2017, 08:32:44 AM »
I'd love that kinda of deal for our triplets post ELC.
Except our triplets all put up more points in their first full season than Drouin has. It's gonna get ugly with those contracts

I don't think Nylander and Marner would get that much more than that. Yes, they both outproduced him in their rookie seasons but we all know Drouin didn't get nearly the same opportunities he did. Drouin's P/60 was actually a fair bit higher than Nylander's and comparable to Marner's. I think if you're looking ahead they all project to be fairly similar players, and that's what you're paying for post-ELC.

With that said, I hope they try to get Nylander's extension done this summer. Try to do $5.5-6mil for 6 years. That'd be great because you could probably convince Marner to sign an identical contract next summer regardless of what happens during the season. Then add some dough to Matthews' deal.

Offline Zee

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #21 on: June 16, 2017, 08:47:33 AM »
I'd love that kinda of deal for our triplets post ELC.
Except our triplets all put up more points in their first full season than Drouin has. It's gonna get ugly with those contracts

I don't think Nylander and Marner would get that much more than that. Yes, they both outproduced him in their rookie seasons but we all know Drouin didn't get nearly the same opportunities he did. Drouin's P/60 was actually a fair bit higher than Nylander's and comparable to Marner's. I think if you're looking ahead they all project to be fairly similar players, and that's what you're paying for post-ELC.

With that said, I hope they try to get Nylander's extension done this summer. Try to do $5.5-6mil for 6 years. That'd be great because you could probably convince Marner to sign an identical contract next summer regardless of what happens during the season. Then add some dough to Matthews' deal.

According to this, Drouin's P/60 is 2.46, Nylander is 2.82 and Marner is 2.83

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-points-per-60-min-leaders/2016/

Just looking at points per game, Drouin has 95 in 164 games played. Nylander and Marner are better than that too (given less games though)
« Last Edit: June 16, 2017, 08:49:37 AM by Zee »

Offline herman

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #22 on: June 16, 2017, 09:32:15 AM »
From HockeyAnalysis at 5v5:
Player NameTeamG/60Points/60PrimaryPts/60Shots/60
MATTHEWS, AUSTONToronto1.52.121.9111.17
MARNER, MITCHToronto0.862.131.617.13
NYLANDER, WILLIAMToronto0.631.711.147.93
DROUIN, JONATHANTampa Bay0.541.441.088.06

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #23 on: June 16, 2017, 09:33:54 AM »
According to this, Drouin's P/60 is 2.46, Nylander is 2.82 and Marner is 2.83

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-points-per-60-min-leaders/2016/

Just looking at points per game, Drouin has 95 in 164 games played. Nylander and Marner are better than that too (given less games though)

Sorry, I specifically meant their P/60's in their respective rookie seasons. Nylander: 1.71, Drouin 1.95, Marner 2.13. All numbers even-strength, which is generally how P/60 is viewed. I just wanted to show that even though Nylander and Marner almost doubled Drouin's rookie season point total, their rookie seasons were closer than it seemed.

This past season was really the first where he was actually given a legit top-6 role, and because of Tampa's injury struggles he often had to carry his own line by himself. He scored 53 points while his three most common 5-on-5 linemates were Killorn, Filppula, and Boyle. That's pretty impressive.

I admit if you just look at the stats and see what Nylander and Marner did in their rookie seasons and put it up against what Drouin has done in his first 3 years, it looks very positive for our guys. But I still think all three of their upsides are pretty similar. Montreal isn't paying Drouin to be a 50-point player for the next 6 years.

Offline Zee

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #24 on: June 16, 2017, 09:42:17 AM »
According to this, Drouin's P/60 is 2.46, Nylander is 2.82 and Marner is 2.83

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/stats/player-points-per-60-min-leaders/2016/

Just looking at points per game, Drouin has 95 in 164 games played. Nylander and Marner are better than that too (given less games though)

Sorry, I specifically meant their P/60's in their respective rookie seasons. Nylander: 1.71, Drouin 1.95, Marner 2.13. All numbers even-strength, which is generally how P/60 is viewed. I just wanted to show that even though Nylander and Marner almost doubled Drouin's rookie season point total, their rookie seasons were closer than it seemed.

This past season was really the first where he was actually given a legit top-6 role, and because of Tampa's injury struggles he often had to carry his own line by himself. He scored 53 points while his three most common 5-on-5 linemates were Killorn, Filppula, and Boyle. That's pretty impressive.

I admit if you just look at the stats and see what Nylander and Marner did in their rookie seasons and put it up against what Drouin has done in his first 3 years, it looks very positive for our guys. But I still think all three of their upsides are pretty similar. Montreal isn't paying Drouin to be a 50-point player for the next 6 years.

It's hardly fair to compare Drouin's 70 rookie games to Nylander who only got into 22.  Sure 1.71 in 22 games is lower than 1.95 in 70, but c'mon, Nylander barely got a chance to get going in only 22 games.

Also I'm not going to debate whether 5 on 5 points mean more than PP points, but to me points are points whether you get them even strength or on the PP.

So while they may be comparable, I still think Nylander and Marner will get a higher salary than Drouin, especially if they continue to build  upon the seasons they just had.  It would be in the Leafs best interest to work out Nylander's deal this summer before he potentially has another great season.

Offline herman

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #25 on: June 16, 2017, 09:48:16 AM »
I think Pastrnak's upcoming contract will be more telling of Nylander and Marner's (even though he broke into the lineup D+0). I think Nylander and Marner's will both be north of Drouin's. I'd be very happy with 6x6.

What's the downside of going 8 years right away though?

Offline Zee

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #26 on: June 16, 2017, 09:52:16 AM »
I think Pastrnak's upcoming contract will be more telling of Nylander and Marner's (even though he broke into the lineup D+0). I think Nylander and Marner's will both be north of Drouin's. I'd be very happy with 6x6.

What's the downside of going 8 years right away though?

Not sure about all the decisions that would go into 8 years or not.  Buying some of the UFA years and skipping the RFAs altogether..what's that worth?  Only risk on the Leafs side would be if the players aren't as good as we think they are.

For me, they're cornerstones of the club going forward, so I'm 100% behind locking up all 3.

Offline herman

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #27 on: June 16, 2017, 09:58:25 AM »
Not sure about all the decisions that would go into 8 years or not.  Buying some of the UFA years and skipping the RFAs altogether..what's that worth?  Only risk on the Leafs side would be if the players aren't as good as we think they are.

For me, they're cornerstones of the club going forward, so I'm 100% behind locking up all 3.

The agents might not want to go 8 right away, but for the Leafs, why wouldn't we take them right to 29-30 and then let them make hay elsewhere in their declining years?

or is it better to 6x6-8(Matthews) them to 26-27 and then extend at max term at a higher hit?

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #28 on: June 16, 2017, 09:59:59 AM »
It's hardly fair to compare Drouin's 70 rookie games to Nylander who only got into 22.  Sure 1.71 in 22 games is lower than 1.95 in 70, but c'mon, Nylander barely got a chance to get going in only 22 games.

Sorry, again, more confusion. It was 1.71 this past season. He was still considered a rookie in it so I consider it his rookie season.

Also I'm not going to debate whether 5 on 5 points mean more than PP points, but to me points are points whether you get them even strength or on the PP.

I don't necessarily disagree, I just wanted to point out that 9 times out of 10 when people discuss P/60 it's using 5-on-5 numbers only. And the 1 other time it happens it often just causes this confusion.

Since PP points were brought up, all 3 of them were among the league leaders in powerplay points this past season. Nylander had 27, Drouin 25, Marner 21.

So while they may be comparable, I still think Nylander and Marner will get a higher salary than Drouin, especially if they continue to build  upon the seasons they just had.  It would be in the Leafs best interest to work out Nylander's deal this summer before he potentially has another great season.

Again, I don't disagree. But I think Montreal got pretty lucky with this contract, much like how we got lucky with Kadri when he had his contract year. If Stamkos stays healthy and Drouin got to play with an actually good centre at 5-on-5 then he's probably close to 70 points this season. I think if Nylander signs now then 6x6 is a pretty good guess.

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #29 on: June 16, 2017, 10:16:48 AM »
How Shananan/Lamoriello/Dubas can be just sitting there this morning while Bergevin is essentially handing them their lunch in the Team Improvement Race is simply beyond belief.  Do something, for God's sake -- anything!!!

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Re: Drouin to Montreal for Sergachev
« Reply #29 on: June 16, 2017, 10:16:48 AM »