Author Topic: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas  (Read 5240 times)

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Offline bustaheims

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #30 on: May 25, 2017, 09:10:21 AM »
Admittedly, I don't have much use for advanced stats, which is a big part of what Dubas is known for, so that takes the lustre off of him for me.  I also prefer Hunter's talent evaluation abilities. Dubas seems like a good complementary piece to do the grunt work in terms of working the phones and laying the ground work on trades and contracts.  But when it comes to pulling the final trigger on a deal or having the final say on the draft floor, I'd rather Hunter be the one calling the shots.

For me, the talent evaluation ability is a big reason why I'd prefer to have Hunter remain head of scouting. That's where those talents will have the strongest long-term impact. Evaluating players that are already in the NHL is a much more straightforward task than evaluating whether or not teenagers will turn into quality NHLers.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #31 on: May 25, 2017, 09:15:22 AM »
Can you guys elaborate a bit further about why you value Hunter as GM over Dubas? I'm in the other camp and I'd like to know more. Thanks!

Admittedly, I don't have much use for advanced stats, which is a big part of what Dubas is known for, so that takes the lustre off of him for me.  I also prefer Hunter's talent evaluation abilities.  Dubas seems like a good complementary piece to do the grunt work in terms of working the phones and laying the ground work on trades and contracts.  But when it comes to pulling the final trigger on a deal or having the final say on the draft floor, I'd rather Hunter be the one calling the shots.

What I find interesting when it comes to Tim Hunters talent evaluation is what happened in last years draft.  It will be interesting to see how that class pans out.  I'm just not sure how much say he had in drafting the over-agers, or if it was his idea to begin with.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be. - Khalil Gibran

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #32 on: May 25, 2017, 09:45:21 AM »
Admittedly, I don't have much use for advanced stats, which is a big part of what Dubas is known for, so that takes the lustre off of him for me.  I also prefer Hunter's talent evaluation abilities. Dubas seems like a good complementary piece to do the grunt work in terms of working the phones and laying the ground work on trades and contracts.  But when it comes to pulling the final trigger on a deal or having the final say on the draft floor, I'd rather Hunter be the one calling the shots.

For me, the talent evaluation ability is a big reason why I'd prefer to have Hunter remain head of scouting. That's where those talents will have the strongest long-term impact. Evaluating players that are already in the NHL is a much more straightforward task than evaluating whether or not teenagers will turn into quality NHLers.

Yeah, I was going to say this same thing too. I'm not saying that Hunter would be as bad of a GM, but JFJ was widely know for his great "talent evaluation abilities" too prior to becoming the Leafs GM.

Offline Peter D.

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #33 on: May 25, 2017, 10:00:03 AM »
Admittedly, I don't have much use for advanced stats, which is a big part of what Dubas is known for, so that takes the lustre off of him for me.  I also prefer Hunter's talent evaluation abilities. Dubas seems like a good complementary piece to do the grunt work in terms of working the phones and laying the ground work on trades and contracts.  But when it comes to pulling the final trigger on a deal or having the final say on the draft floor, I'd rather Hunter be the one calling the shots.

For me, the talent evaluation ability is a big reason why I'd prefer to have Hunter remain head of scouting. That's where those talents will have the strongest long-term impact. Evaluating players that are already in the NHL is a much more straightforward task than evaluating whether or not teenagers will turn into quality NHLers.

Yeah, I was going to say this same thing too. I'm not saying that Hunter would be as bad of a GM, but JFJ was widely know for his great "talent evaluation abilities" too prior to becoming the Leafs GM.

These are fair points.  And maybe Hunter just may in fact prefer to keep it as is.

But on the flipside, I don't see what gives Dubas the distinct advantage either, or he'd be any better than Hunter.  I don't want to say I'm underwhelmed with him, but he hasn't really stood out.  I also get the sense that it's Shanny, Lou, Hunter...then Dubas.  Which is a main reason why I think he'd even consider leaving the Leafs.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #34 on: May 25, 2017, 10:11:59 AM »
One thing that I thought was kind of interesting throughout the season was that some of the criticism of the Leafs management team from last offseason never really seemed to get brought up again. Lets rewind about a year or so from now:

-The Leafs draft strategy seemed to target older and/or bigger players as opposed to 2015's which put a clear emphasis on skill and speed
-The Leafs dipped into free agency by signing players like Matt Martin and Roman Polak
-The Leafs dealt a 1st round draft pick for immediate help in the form of a starting goaltender

According to a segment of fans, these moves seemed to signal a shift in the managements philosophy. A shift away from the (let's call it) analytics approach that the group seemed to be using in the past couple of offseasons. This was also of course Lou's first full offseason with the club, so the shift was largely seen as being something he dictated. Of course, once the season started and things appeared to be going better than we expected (and by that I mean Matthews/Nylander/Marner were much better in their rookie seasons than most expected) that talk seemed to die down. But moves like picking up Smith and Boyle and not unloading any contracts at the deadline for picks all seemed to fall in line with this new 'Lou' philosophy.

Now with this talk about Dubas potentially leaving we can add another aspect of this shift. When Lou first came on board he publicly stated that Dubas was essentially the GM-in-waiting for the club. The whispers are that over time Lou became more impressed with Hunter than Dubas and Kyle started to fall out of favour. We can potentially draw parallels between how Lou viewed those two and that shift in the teams philosophy that I outlined above.

And that's kind of what worries me the most about all of this. All of this really makes it seem like we've gone from a team that was championing the analytical approach and a new, forward thinking way of building hockey teams to a more traditional philosophy. I fell in love with the vision that Shanahan brought forth in 2014 that largely included Dubas and his way of looking at the game. I'm not saying that a more traditional philosophy can't make this group a Stanley Cup winning team, and I'm not saying that Lou/Hunter are completely abandoning analytics. But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #35 on: May 25, 2017, 10:18:42 AM »
-The Leafs draft strategy seemed to target older and/or bigger players as opposed to 2015's which put a clear emphasis on skill and speed
-The Leafs dipped into free agency by signing players like Matt Martin and Roman Polak
-The Leafs dealt a 1st round draft pick for immediate help in the form of a starting goaltender

I would just like to point out that I mention the first one there all the time. Also, as soon as the season ended I started a whole thread about the third. Also, the stupid facial hair stuff.

I was never on board with the Lou hiring. It always smacked of overreacting to criticisms of a lack of experience and the "Don't worry, Dubas will just wait around until Lou decides to leave" stuff never made sense.
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #36 on: May 25, 2017, 10:59:24 AM »
And that's kind of what worries me the most about all of this. All of this really makes it seem like we've gone from a team that was championing the analytical approach and a new, forward thinking way of building hockey teams to a more traditional philosophy. I fell in love with the vision that Shanahan brought forth in 2014 that largely included Dubas and his way of looking at the game. I'm not saying that a more traditional philosophy can't make this group a Stanley Cup winning team, and I'm not saying that Lou/Hunter are completely abandoning analytics. But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.

I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach is a surefire way to win either.  Florida by and large did this, and it seemed to crater their team.  Injuries played a part in their demise for sure, but it seemed that they didn't have the same mojo as the year before.

Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves.  I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.

When they start talking about adding more "intangibles" to the team, that's where I think the problems will start.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #37 on: May 25, 2017, 11:02:18 AM »
I would just like to point out that I mention the first one there all the time. Also, as soon as the season ended I started a whole thread about the third. Also, the stupid facial hair stuff.

Fair enough. I shouldn't have said "never really seemed to get brought up". Heck, I myself brought up the draft thing in regards to Girard at least a dozen times throughout the season. The talk just seemed to die down quite a bit.

I was never on board with the Lou hiring. It always smacked of overreacting to criticisms of a lack of experience and the "Don't worry, Dubas will just wait around until Lou decides to leave" stuff never made sense.

I was actually pretty optimistic about Lou at first, so I hope people don't think I've been against him since the beginning. But I (naively, I guess) felt like he wouldn't be able to change the direction of the team as much as I think he has. I also remember saying that he absolutely shouldn't be sticking around for more than 2 seasons. That's all that would have been needed from him. Although I guess even if he did step down right now it still appears as though his influence would mean Hunter would be the one getting promoted.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #38 on: May 25, 2017, 11:15:54 AM »
I was actually pretty optimistic about Lou at first, so I hope people don't think I've been against him since the beginning. But I (naively, I guess) felt like he wouldn't be able to change the direction of the team as much as I think he has. I also remember saying that he absolutely shouldn't be sticking around for more than 2 seasons. That's all that would have been needed from him. Although I guess even if he did step down right now it still appears as though his influence would mean Hunter would be the one getting promoted.

For me it was never about being "against" him so much as it was that when he got hired we went from having Dubas saying really smart and insightful things in the media to hearing a lot of the old-timey "conventional wisdom" and Vince Lombardi-esque rah-rah nonsense that probably makes columnists happy but doesn't really reflect well on what had seemed to be a really forward thinking group.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #39 on: May 25, 2017, 11:56:33 AM »
I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach is a surefire way to win either.  Florida by and large did this, and it seemed to crater their team.  Injuries played a part in their demise for sure, but it seemed that they didn't have the same mojo as the year before.

Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves.  I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.

When they start talking about adding more "intangibles" to the team, that's where I think the problems will start.

Lots of managers have "cratered" their teams using the traditional approach too. It all depends on having the right person guiding the team. In the case of Florida, they decided to pick Tom Rowe to fill that role. I never really knew that much about him, but he has a long background as a NHL player and minor league coach, but seemed to have little-to-no front office experience at any level. So that was definitely a strange move by their part. Although like you alluded to as well, a combination of injuries and their 15/16 success being partially percentage-driven played a role in that groups failure as well.

But for years, going back to his OHL days, Dubas has shown that he could very likely be the right person to lead an analytical approach. Which yes, while I call it that, of course is not a team that makes every decision based solely on numbers from a spreadsheet. Traditional scouting methods and getting to know a player personally will always play a role too. And it's also about a new way of viewing how the game is playing and being the first to spot new trends that can help ultimately win hockey games. That's what Dubas did in the Soo. And prior to Lou putting his stamp on the team that's what he appeared to be doing with the Leafs.

Online herman

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #40 on: May 25, 2017, 12:05:14 PM »
I don't know if taking a strictly analytical approach is a surefire way to win either.  Florida by and large did this, and it seemed to crater their team.  Injuries played a part in their demise for sure, but it seemed that they didn't have the same mojo as the year before.

Ultimately it's probably best to have someone in place who uses these things as a tool to perform the evaluation of the team, but doesn't fall in love with them to the point where it's dictating moves.  I think that for the most part that describes what Dubas did in Sault Ste. Marie.

When they start talking about adding more "intangibles" to the team, that's where I think the problems will start.

Florida's 'approach' was unfortunately exceedingly tone-deaf and they clearly did not have up-and-down buy-in, which would crater any enterprise. The jump they had last year peaks in that nebulous 1st/2nd round exit region and will likely persist until something more drastic happens.

Like you said, I think Dubas has the ability to help both traditionalists and analytics-inclined people see a unified path. He has literally walked both paths in his career in both scouting and GMing and found going down either one to the extreme to be detrimental to success.

At least with all three candidates, Dubas, Lou, Hunter, they're very process and relationship driven. Lou's got some blindspots (presumably from the bling off his rings) and anachronistic preferences; Hunter has an obvious pattern that eventually manifests as a weakness (top-heavy build, no defense); Dubas is super young but seems very open to shoring up advantages at every controllable layer. He did fumble a team sexual assault scandal that I think he was in way over his head on back in 2012 -- probably not something a sports management degree adequately deals with.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #41 on: May 25, 2017, 12:15:10 PM »

Just so we're clear, what exactly is the analytical method or statistical model that Florida used that led to Ekblad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Bjugstad and Luongo all getting hurt?
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Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #42 on: May 25, 2017, 12:30:57 PM »

Just so we're clear, what exactly is the analytical method or statistical model that Florida used that led to Ekblad, Huberdeau, Barkov, Bjugstad and Luongo all getting hurt?

Again, injuries definitely played a part in their season, but the moves to get rid of Gudbranson and Kulikov as well as the decision not to sign Campbell were largely driven from a analytical place, and that played a part in not having the depth on defense to absorb a loss of Ekblad.  Also the decision to fire Gallant was rumored to have been made because his coaching style didn't align with an analytical approach.

I'm not saying that there is a problem with using analytics as a tool.  But when you move three of your top 6 d-men, when you know a 4th isn't coming back based largely on the data that you are getting from advanced stats, that would seem like poor decision making.   
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Offline Peter D.

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #43 on: May 25, 2017, 12:42:45 PM »
But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.

If this is indeed the case, why would Shanahan allow for this as opposed to putting his foot down?

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #44 on: May 25, 2017, 12:44:21 PM »
But I can't help but think the original 'Shanaplan' has been hijacked a little bit.

If this is indeed the case, why would Shanahan allow for this as opposed to putting his foot down?

Because he doesn't want the Leafs to be known as an organization that will block your personal growth? 

We don't know what is being said behind closed doors.  Shanahan could very well be saying to Dubas "I understand the desire to run your own team, but I think taking that job would be a mistake."
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Re: Colorado granted permission to talk to Dubas
« Reply #44 on: May 25, 2017, 12:44:21 PM »