Author Topic: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take  (Read 4480 times)

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Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2017, 09:48:36 AM »
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.

I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.  What I'm saying is there's a difference between a guy that can take the reigns and become a #1 goalie and can't who can't.  I think Andersen has done enough this season in transitioning from a backup / "1a" in Anaheim to a true #1 in Toronto. Sure he had his struggles too, but he performed well for long stretches, and performed well in the playoffs.  It remains to be seen if he can become an upper-echelon #1 goalie, but right now he's trending in the right direction.

Bernier on the other hand also had a good season, but the expectations on him weren't the same as what Andersen had in Toronto.  Bernier knew he'd be sitting more often than playing, and in the games he played he'd often get weaker opponents on the schedule, your Arizona's and NJ's of the world.  I realize that Bernier had a stretch where he had to play a bunch of consecutive game when Gibson was unavailable, but it was for a short stint, and he wasn't expected to become the #1 goalie for the team.

So all in all I think the Andersen trade was worth it.  I think the Leafs have a goalie that can handle the pressure of playing as a #1, and also his body can handle the workload that comes with being a #1 goalie.  I don't believe that previous Leafs goalies like Bernier or Reimer had this ability, and the fact that both are now backups in the league undesrcores that. 

You can argue that a short playoff run wasn't beneficial to the Leafs development, but I think winning is always better than losing, and the fact that the team got a small taste of it this year will benefit them going forward in my opinion.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2017, 10:01:50 AM »
I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2017, 10:03:55 AM by Nik the Trik »
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Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2017, 10:25:16 AM »
I'm responding to the general narrative that the Andersen trade wasn't needed by the Leafs.  In your original post you pointed out that Bernier was capable of providing good goaltending with a better team in front of him and you pointed out he had a good season this year.... 

No. You are misunderstanding me despite the fact that I've explicitly and repeatedly said that my point about Bernier is not limited to his play this year but rather that Bernier's play this year is indicative of the fact that he's a significantly better goalie than he was last year which is evidenced not simply by his year in Anaheim but his ENTIRE CAREER excepting last year.

We saw Bernier as a #1 or, #1a if we want to be split hairs, on worse Leafs teams that gave up more shots. Both years he faced roughly 1800 shots. This year Andersen faced 2052. Again, this is not a night and day difference in durability. The idea that we can't possibly imagine how Bernier would respond to being expected to play most nights only really works if we have goldfish-like memories.

To make it as simple as I possibly can my argument  re: Bernier is that he's capable of providing good goaltending as a #1 BECAUSE I SAW HIM DO IT AS A MAPLE LEAF.

He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload. 

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2017, 10:41:58 AM »
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2017, 10:48:26 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Save percentage is a good indicator of goalie performance but it isn't the only factor that determines a goalie's ability.
 

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2017, 10:56:48 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2017, 11:18:50 AM »
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2017, 11:22:20 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.
 

Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2017, 11:24:03 AM »
He got worse each year with the Leafs.  First season .923, second season .912, third season .908  Again you can argue how bad the teams were, but nothing in Bernier's play the final 2 season gave any confidence that he could handle the workload.

I don't have to argue how bad the teams are, it's plain fact. But to pretend like putting up a .912 SV% is nothing and the .918 Andersen did this year is a massive gap that renders one of them capable of playing the position and the other one mentally or physically incapable of it holds absolutely no water.

Additionally, there's no evidence or reason to believe that the save percentage declining like that is a distinguishable pattern as opposed to just random chance. Bernier is capable of playing at the levels we saw him play at, most of which were pretty good. Saying he's incapable of repeating that based on one bad year is exactly as solid as someone saying after the end of last season that Nazem Kadri was incapable of scoring 20 goals because of three years of declining goal totals.

All of which is a fairly minor point. You are perfectly free to continue to try and tell me that Bernier isn't capable of something I saw him doing for two seasons but Bernier's ability to provide competent goaltending is a pretty small part of the argument.
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

Maybe Nik needs his eyes checked.  :-\

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #39 on: April 25, 2017, 11:27:40 AM »
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

I don't think league average divides between competency and incompetency or good and bad. Especially not with such small margins.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Andy

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #40 on: April 25, 2017, 11:32:38 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..

Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #41 on: April 25, 2017, 11:33:24 AM »
I'm not sure which two seasons you saw Bernier do it in considering that in 2 of his 3 seasons with the Leafs his save% was below the league average.

I don't think league average divides between competency and incompetency or good and bad. Especially not with such small margins.
At the very least you want a starting goalie who is at or better than the league average. For two years Bernier wasn't. Whatever factors led to that I have no idea, blame it on Nelson Mandela if you have to, but Bernier wasn't cutting it in the last 2 seasons. The fact that he bounced back this year is good for him, but he still played 40% fewer games than Andersen this season and faced fewer shots in those games played.  I think the Leafs are in good shape going forward with Andersen in net.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #42 on: April 25, 2017, 11:34:44 AM »
Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Jake Guentzel has a higher career PPG in the playoffs than Jonathan Toews.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #43 on: April 25, 2017, 11:36:56 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..

Andersen has 34 career playoff games and Price has 60.


Offline Andy

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #44 on: April 25, 2017, 11:38:31 AM »
Carey Price has a career save percentage of .920. Just .002 better than Andersen and .005 better than Bernier.

Strictly speaking I'm not sure what point you're making here. We all know that Price had an inconsistent start to his career but we should look askew at SV% because he "only" has managed to put up the 5th best career SV% of all time?

Frederik Andersen has a better save percentage than Carey Price in the playoffs.

Yea those 5 games where Andersen put up a .947 SV% really make sample size irrelevant..

Andersen has 34 career playoff games and Price has 60.

No, no, there is one year of playoffs where Andersen played a total of 5 games for a .947 SV%. That skews his numbers a whole lot. Nevermind though, Nik's retort was way better.

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #44 on: April 25, 2017, 11:38:31 AM »