Author Topic: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take  (Read 4479 times)

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Offline Frank E

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #15 on: April 24, 2017, 02:28:33 PM »
I think a goaltending change was inevitable, but I'm not sure they needed to go as far as the Andersen trade/contract.

The problem is that they're kind of on a path now, and I doubt that going backwards, in terms of the team's record, is an option.

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.

So I guess the Andersen trade doesn't help them get that piece or 2, but it might have helped them get into the playoffs this year...I know which I'd have preferred.   

Offline Bonsixx

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #16 on: April 24, 2017, 03:05:25 PM »
I was just sick of watching Reimer and Bernier, and was a fan of Andersen's work in Anaheim, so I liked the trade then and still like it now. Not a very scientific method to base my approval on, I know, but hey.

Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #17 on: April 24, 2017, 03:39:27 PM »
I thought Freddie was great this series, a few he'd love to have back, but he definitely held strong when called upon the majority of the time.

I wonder what impact the style of play the Leafs play has to be factored in, they seem to play an exceptionally high-risk form of hockey that generates a lot of opportunities in attack, but when it breaks down it often does so spectacularly so.

Just from memory, Andersen seemed to be able to bail them out of those breakdowns a lot more than any goalie we've had recently.


Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #18 on: April 24, 2017, 05:09:04 PM »
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?

I don't get this reasoning at all.  Solid goaltenders are hard to find and Andersen has proven to be that.  When one's available, you take him.  I had doubts about the trade when it went down, but none now.  Unlike Bernier/Reimer, I can actually picture the Leafs winning a Cup someday with Andersen in net.

Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #19 on: April 24, 2017, 05:58:35 PM »
Making that move once the team had some clearer picture of how to put together their defense still seems like the better decision to me.

This, I wholeheartedly agree with.

I do think there's value in a young team playing playoff hockey (especially in being competitive with the leagues best team), and I think that, as the blueline is shored-up, Andersen will see his numbers improve - but I can't help but wonder if doing things in reverse - getting the blueline that you want/need, then building out the goaltending from there would have resulted in spending less assets overall?

I don't get this reasoning at all.  Solid goaltenders are hard to find and Andersen has proven to be that.  When one's available, you take him.  I had doubts about the trade when it went down, but none now.  Unlike Bernier/Reimer, I can actually picture the Leafs winning a Cup someday with Andersen in net.
The fact that Andersen played in 66 games and was still really good come playoff time really raised his worth to me.  He took a big step forward this season in becoming a starting goalie, and hopefully he starts well in October with no injuries. It's a hard grind for goalies , and he's shown he's capable of handling the workload.

Offline Guilt Trip

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #20 on: April 24, 2017, 07:15:12 PM »
You don't want to subject the kids to a losing environment and you don't want them punished every time they make a mistake. Having Bernie as the number one was just that. He was brutal last year. That's why we needed a goalie Andersen and when one of his caliber comes up, you grab him. Subjecting all of these kids to losing isn't an option. Without Freddie, we don't make the playoffs and this series would have been done quick. Great move when they did it and now looks even better

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #21 on: April 24, 2017, 08:32:03 PM »
My guess is that the team wanted a safety net that the young defense could grow under without fear of every. single. mistake. ending up in the back of their net, like it seemed to with Bernier and the first two weeks of Andersen. Hence the jettisoning of Enroth too.

I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online herman

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #22 on: April 24, 2017, 08:47:12 PM »
a) *swoon
b) I did say it was my guess at their motive, based on their comments and moves, not necessarily that it was something I agreed with. This is also not to say that I can't be swayed by a great story though!

My preference would've been to run the string out on Bernier to see if his percentages did bounce back, then we trade him at the deadline for the additional benefit of a higher draft pick, more picks, and more information about our goaltender pipeline. Gear up for a heavy playoff drive next year with the freed up cap space.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 09:59:33 PM by herman »

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #23 on: April 24, 2017, 08:57:59 PM »
Bernier didn't let in a goal with every single mistake. He'd played well with similarly crappy defenses in the past. You know I love you deeply Herman but this seems like a textbook case of a "Just the facts, Ma'am" sort of person throwing them out the second they contradict the story he wants to believe in.
I think you're letting narrative drive fact here. I didn't like the way Bernier played last year but I also didn't like the way Kadri played. Rebounding to some semblance of their career averages in save and shooting percentage was, I think, a pretty safe bet regardless of the intangibles you want to ascribe to their seasons.

I think it's likely Bernier would've bounced back too, but I think we've got a pretty decent sense of Babcock's weird roster preferences. He like's his goalies 6'6" every game or whatever.

From an asset management perspective, I'd have much preferred to do what herman suggests above. But if we agree that Bernier likely would've bounced back this season, we can rule this out:

They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of [or?] 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.   

Happily, I think the last quarter of the season and the playoffs suggest that our defense is, at least at the top of the depth chart, in better shape than we'd thought.

The core's in very good shape, and a lot of what's missing will come through internal improvements (Nylander taking over at center giving us 3 play-controlling lines, Marner developing such that he doesn't disappear in the playoffs, etc.). What makes the Andersen move frustrating is that we'll have less cost-controlled depth to move in as we move out non-core players.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 10:07:33 PM by mr grieves »

Offline gunnar36

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #24 on: April 24, 2017, 09:14:43 PM »
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #25 on: April 24, 2017, 09:39:20 PM »
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Andy

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #26 on: April 25, 2017, 07:59:33 AM »
Good (and maybe on the cusp of very good) but definitely not great is exactly how I'd classify Andersen.

Though I must admit, the huge amount of praise lavished upon him by the announcers/media for average-good saves is quite impressive.

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #27 on: April 25, 2017, 09:04:56 AM »
They probably needed another solid bottom 5 finish this past year to draft a final piece of 2 of the core.  I doubt they find that guy at 18th, and he doesn't seem to be anywhere in the system right now.

I wonder if, maybe, they took a look at the draft class this year and determined the guy they need just wasn't there, and that they didn't want two more seasons at the bottom of the league, and being in a situation where they have to wait until after the 17/18 season to start plugging other holes in the lineup. As the year went on, it started to become more clear that the kind of defenceman they need to step into the lineup in the next couple seasons wasn't likely to be available in this draft class - or, at least, there's no obvious choice for that.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Zee

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #28 on: April 25, 2017, 09:15:39 AM »
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season.  In Bernier's 39 games played, he faced an average of 25 shots/game whereas in the 66 games that Andersen played he faced 31 shots/game.  That extra 6 shots a game over an additional 27 games that Andersen played over Bernier adds up on the wear and tear of a goalie.  Could Bernier have survived that type of workload?  We'll never know.   Last season, when Bernier faced 29 shots/game while playing on the Leafs, he posted a .908 save%.  We can look at goalie stats until we're blue in the face, but perhaps Bernier is one of those guys that can't last 60+ games in a season while facing 30+ shots a night.  Maybe it's a combination of workload + expectation and it's a mental thing with Bernier?  Maybe he's not cut out to be a #1 goalie because of what's between his ears?  It's all speculation on our part, but based on the numbers, I think Andersen has proven he can handle a harder workload than Bernier can.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2017, 09:29:26 AM »
Comparing save percentages is such a subjective thing since it doesn't account for the quality of the scoring chances.  Let's face it, we don't have an air tight d-core and they consistently give up a high number of quality chances, I would safely guess far more then the Ducks do.

SV% is the best mainstream goaltender stat there is. That it has some outside factors and isn't perfect doesn't render it "subjective" any more than the same being true about goals and assists. It's not a coincidence that the Vezina finalists finished 1st, 2nd and 4th in the league in SV%.

But even then, that's not the entirety of what I'm saying. I watched Andersen pretty closely all year and while I can't say the same re: Bernier, I also watched him over three seasons with the Leafs and read what people said about his play in Anaheim.

Is Andersen better and did he have the better season? Probably. But it's not a night and day difference.

You can't compare Andersen on the Leafs this season against Bernier on the Ducks this season. *clip*

Honestly, man, it's like you're not even reading what you're responding to. Take another look at my second paragraph.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

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Re: Nik's Blazing Hot Morning After Goaltending Take
« Reply #29 on: April 25, 2017, 09:29:26 AM »