Author Topic: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch  (Read 9578 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2017, 12:18:33 PM »

So a team that's desperate to win now will trade their best defenseman for a group consisting mainly of prospects and a draft pick?
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2017, 12:21:15 PM »
I guess my thinking on Hunlak ATM is that they're more valuable to the team right now, than the draft picks they'd return as rentals.


Wanting to keep JVR in lieu of a trade can be rationalized, I guess, but not wanting to trade Polak or Hunwick for picks because they're too valuable to this team for this season? I really don't get it.

Typically, you need 8 NHL defensemen (at least replacement level) for the playoff push and into the playoffs due to injuries being expected.  Usually, you have one or two in your farm system that could step in plus your 7th defenseman who on your roster.

At this point, other than maybe Valiev, our Marlies D are either too weak or too green (young) to rely on.  They are below NHL replacement level.  If you move either one of Polak, Hunwick, or both, you are down to either 6 or 7 NHL defensemen, one who's played 1 game to this point in the season, and you are really hoping for good luck when it comes to injuries

The above is based on the premise you are actually trying to compete for a playoff spot.  For some in Leafs nation the playoffs shouldn't even be a goal this year and getting as many future assets as possible is more important.  I personally disagree with that, but to each their own.  Of course, it all depends on the return.  If these two garner 4th round picks I don't think its worth hurting the chance of making the playoffs.  I think even just one round of playoff experience for this young group will be extremely helpful to their development. 


Online herman

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2017, 12:27:57 PM »

Admittedly it's still 6 or so weeks out and a lot can change in the standings between now and then but I think it'd be a real mistake by the Leafs to not make some hay out of Polak/Hunwick while they can, especially when they have internal options to replace them.

If Rielly's out for awhile and Hunwick looks even half-decent it could go a long way to making him a somewhat valuable chip.

Just send out that clip of Hunwick diving nearly head first on the puck in the last seconds at the net-side of last night's one-goal game and there'll be at least 6 playoff teams calling to inquire with 3rd or up picks.

Offline AvroArrow

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2017, 12:58:05 PM »
I'd like to see TO acquire Columbus's 2018 1st rounder for a vet to boost their playoff drive.  I expect them to fall back to earth next year, giving the chance for that first to be pretty high.

Offline Zee

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2017, 01:03:24 PM »
I'm hoping Shanahan calls "desperate to win now"  Florida and steals Ekblad away from them.  Would have never believed there to be a chance until Weber and Subban got traded.  So what would that take
Bozak Kapanen Nielson and our 1st 2017.  I would do it

Two flaws I see here.
1) Shanahan isn't the GM
2) They're not trading Ekblad.

Offline louisstamos

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2017, 01:26:30 PM »
The above is based on the premise you are actually trying to compete for a playoff spot.  For some in Leafs nation the playoffs shouldn't even be a goal this year and getting as many future assets as possible is more important.  I personally disagree with that, but to each their own.  Of course, it all depends on the return.  If these two garner 4th round picks I don't think its worth hurting the chance of making the playoffs.  I think even just one round of playoff experience for this young group will be extremely helpful to their development.

The thing is, the goal this year was to let the kids play, see how they do, and build around that.  Barring a few boldest of the bold predictors, I don't think any of us thought that the likes of Matthews and Marner would be *this* good out of the gate at 19.  If the team is competing for a playoff spot, like Nik said in another thread, I think you just roll back the idea of trading valuable players that still have some term (Bozak, JVR).

My thing in the Armchair GM thread was, if you trade Polak and Hunwick at the deadline because you don't want lose them for absolutely nothing as UFAs (one of them bound to be replaced by Marincin), then maybe you take those same assets and bring in a guy who could be an improvement for a #5 or #6 guy.  My only thing is this isn't the year you go for broke.  The team is VERY good, and now I'm starting to feel like they could potentially even win a playoff round or two, but there's still too many holes in the lineup to be considered a true contender that you can plug at the deadline.

Basically, we're not at the point where you're trading 1st round picks and top prospects for veteran help at the deadline.  We're closer to that than I originally thought - depending on how the off-season goes, that could be as early as next year.  But for now - go with the young horses that brought you to the race in the first place, and see how they fare in a playoff battle.

Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2017, 01:27:00 PM »
Do you see either going for a 2nd rounder on their own? 

For the record, yes. Both of them. Polak got two 2nd's a year ago and it's not like he's massively fallen off.

Not Polak by himself.  Spaling went in the deal too and we had to take back Torres (which we could afford). Its also a very late 2nd, nearly 3rd last summer and probably will be again next Summer.

But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2017, 01:31:04 PM »
But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

I think we need to move on from the binary concept of buyers and sellers. I think smart teams should move on from contracts(and add to a prospect base) they can afford to shed regardless of where they are in the standings if they can replace them with no real downside and likewise teams near the bottom should still be looking to make good long term moves by bringing players on board if it's possible.
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Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2017, 01:56:08 PM »
But as of right now (we'll see how the next few weeks shakes out), the Leafs aren't sellers. With just 47 contracts currently and well under cap, they're equipped to be buyers.

I think we need to move on from the binary concept of buyers and sellers. I think smart teams should move on from contracts(and add to a prospect base) they can afford to shed regardless of where they are in the standings if they can replace them with no real downside and likewise teams near the bottom should still be looking to make good long term moves by bringing players on board if it's possible.

I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

That's why the UFA market remains strong in the summer.

Marincin and Corrado still need to prove they're capable of Hunlak's minutes in the NHL and if that proves to be the case in the coming weeks, then I'm on board with you about Polak and Hunwick.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #24 on: January 18, 2017, 02:06:05 PM »
I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

Maybe but a team that's "comfortably" in a playoff spot is effectively a legitimate cup contender. If a team would be out of a playoff spot because of a brief stumble you really shouldn't think of them in that same sense.

I still appreciate there will be teams thinking exclusively short-term right at the top and teams at the bottom who want to blow it up but for teams in the middle, which composes the vast majority of the league, thinking in those sorts of absolutes just doesn't make sense.



Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #25 on: January 18, 2017, 02:15:25 PM »
I hear ya and its an interesting concept. But a winning mix for a team at the deadline, comfortably in a playoff spot generally won't disturb that mix through the trading of roster players for futures during that season.  They look for the piece to push that team over the top.

Maybe but a team that's "comfortably" in a playoff spot is effectively a legitimate cup contender. If a team would be out of a playoff spot because of a brief stumble you really shouldn't think of them in that same sense.

I still appreciate there will be teams thinking exclusively short-term right at the top and teams at the bottom who want to blow it up but for teams in the middle, which composes the vast majority of the league, thinking in those sorts of absolutes just doesn't make sense.

That's why I said I want to see how the next few games shake out for the Leafs.  They could very well be exiting the "mushy middle".

And I generally agree that the mushy middle aren't legit contenders. Do you just consider each division leader a contender, or does it go beyond that?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #26 on: January 18, 2017, 02:22:40 PM »
That's why I said I want to see how the next few games shake out for the Leafs.  They could very well be exiting the "mushy middle".

And I generally agree that the mushy middle aren't legit contenders. Do you just consider each division leader a contender, or does it go beyond that?

Well, there are some pretty weak divisions so no. Right now none of Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington are leading their divisions but all of them are legitimately in the mix for a title. I'm having questions about NYR right now but I'd take Pittsburgh and Washington in a 7 game series over Montreal.

I don't know if there's a single solitary metric I'd use to say whether someone has separated themselves from the pack but I would say, and this is what I think about the Leafs right now, that if you really need to wait and see how a few games play out they're probably not there. The Blackhawks or Penguins could lose their next five games by a combined score of 25-0 and I think we'd all know they were still of a certain quality.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #27 on: January 18, 2017, 02:46:54 PM »

Well, there are some pretty weak divisions so no. Right now none of Chicago, Pittsburgh and Washington are leading their divisions but all of them are legitimately in the mix for a title. I'm having questions about NYR right now but I'd take Pittsburgh and Washington in a 7 game series over Montreal.

I don't know if there's a single solitary metric I'd use to say whether someone has separated themselves from the pack but I would say, and this is what I think about the Leafs right now, that if you really need to wait and see how a few games play out they're probably not there. The Blackhawks or Penguins could lose their next five games by a combined score of 25-0 and I think we'd all know they were still of a certain quality.

Yeah, I think that has to do with the this version of the Leafs not being time tested and battle hardened. Just too early to tell. But in a few games of the second half, if they look like are in a good position to pin down home ice advantage, rather than fight for a post-season spot, it becomes a lot less muddied, agreed?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2017, 02:53:30 PM »
Yeah, I think that has to do with the this version of the Leafs not being time tested and battle hardened. Just too early to tell. But in a few games of the second half, if they look like are in a good position to pin down home ice advantage, rather than fight for a post-season spot, it becomes a lot less muddied, agreed?

Well no because like I said I don't think teams should think in binary terms. There is no good reason, regardless of where the Leafs are in the standings, to not take advantage of the opportunities that expiring contracts present or to seriously flirt with losing JVR for nothing in a year.

So along those lines, even if the Leafs win their next 7 games or whatever if you still are of the opinion that trading Hunwick or Polak would seriously damage what they're capable of accomplishing I'd say you're effectively making the argument that the Leafs aren't good enough to be thinking short term.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline bustaheims

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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2017, 03:12:15 PM »
As Lou said a little while ago, where they are in the standings isn't really going to have an impact on the way they operate. They have a plan, and they'll be sticking to it. So, I think we can pretty safely rule out any major additions that require paying trade deadline type prices. Polak and Hunwick are almost certainly going to be considered available - pending Rielly's health. I think they'll be looking for a quality, cheap 6/7 defenceman for cheap - like, if they move Polak for a 3rd, they try pick up a vet 6/7 for dman for a 5th. It won't have much impact on their overall ability, but it's an upgrade to future assets.
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Re: 2017 Trade Deadline Watch
« Reply #29 on: January 18, 2017, 03:12:15 PM »