Author Topic: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?  (Read 5711 times)

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Offline Tigger

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2016, 05:23:47 AM »
I don't think we really know what this team is yet but I don't think it's unfair to say that hoping 7 rookies have successful 82 game seasons might be a bit out there.

Given that, I think it looks good for the big 3, all with good shot totals, 2 of 3 with good power play production and none with overwhelming toi.

Zaitsev looks fantastic early, could shoot more but has played a ton.

Hyman, probably not a lot more there, a good energy player. Sosh needs to prove he can stay healthy and Brown has had a mixed bag with linemates so it's more difficult to get a bead on him, but he's a smart player who's skating doesn't seem to be an issue anymore.

Some good reasons to remain optimistic, a great starting point for the rebuild.
"My father was born shortly after the Wright Brothers" Charlie Duke

Offline caveman

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #16 on: November 10, 2016, 06:24:44 PM »
I would like to see Babcock do a bit more line juggling like the last game...maybe JVR on the Matthews line.... and Soshnikov up with Bozak...Uncle Leo and Hyman could do some time on the 3rd and 4th lines...

Offline herman

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #17 on: November 10, 2016, 07:20:57 PM »


Offline herman

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #19 on: November 11, 2016, 09:34:37 AM »
This was interesting for me because it's another line to file under the "Leafs don't actually care about the scoreboard result this season" category.

But we've also heard that Babcock's aiming for 6 points every 5 games (~98 point pace?).

I pulled this from the Kings GDT because I forgot to reply and it actually fits better here.

Babcock's challenge of 6 pts in 5 games is just a motivational goal. I think we're easily 7 pts in 5 when the team hits its stride in the next few years.

The decision to ice Hunwick, Martin, Polak, Smith speak much louder towards angling the Leafs for development-like results. It's the exact template they applied to the Marlies last season (go young, but bring in some classy pseudo-goons).

I can't remember who noted this first, but Polak has been shadowing Matthews-Nylander since he got into the lineup (and you wonder why they're in an even strength scoring drought? See all the plays that die on the sticks of Polak and Hyman  :( ). Because Babcock needs to play Polak to 'deter' untoward behaviour towards Mattlander (thanks to UFA coup Martin turning out to be not at all good enough), he also needs to saddle Gardiner on Polak's line because Rielly's on matchup with Kadri, and Marincin/Hunwick are lolz.

Prior to the season starting, Lou also said this camp was a bit of a special one for the rookies because, and this was implied, they were taking on more rookies than they will normally consider in the future with an established core. Year 0 of the Build, so to speak. Brown and Soshnikov, who are both waiver exempt, make the team at the expense of Laich, Michalek, Greening, to show they are serious about a meritocracy (except for the muckers?). This is a long-view decision for the future, not a we're winning this season decision (to be fair, keeping Laich, Michalek, Greening would've been a more bald-faced tank move).

You can see the long-view in every Babcock post-game conference so far too. He is steamed about losing, but every word is about the process, and doing the details right the next time, and reinforcing that every player is growing. He's literally talking about Corsi/Fenwick and PDO, just without using the terms.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #20 on: November 27, 2016, 03:52:25 PM »
Updated the OP to include the chart to include the next ten-game chunk.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
..................Current...............Pace...................Projected............vs. 2015-16........
SF679 (4th)2,651 (1st)n/a2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF183 (1st)715 (1st)n/a498 (19th)
Sh%9.7% (7th)9.7% (6th)8.8% (avg)7.6% (30th)
GF66 (T-3rd)258 (2nd)233 (7th)191 (28th)
SA698 (29th)2,726 (30th)n/a2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA165 (29th)644 (29th)n/a504 (13th)
Sv%.904 (22nd).904 (23rd).908 (avg).904 (23rd)
GA66 (27th)262 (30th)251 (29th)240 (24th)
DIFF.-1 (14th)-4 (17th)-17 (20th)-49 (29th)

Compared to the first ten games...
  • Leafs aren't generating as many shots as they were, but they're still coming out ahead in scoring chances (using Corsica.hockey's). Even at the reduced rate, their pace would put them at the top of the league in 2015-16.
  • They're giving up more shots than they were in the opening set, but the scoring chances against aren't much worse. Which is good, because they were already at the bottom of the league.
  • Their percentages have bounced back. Goaltending has been good enough [.916 in gm. 11-20] that this season's back in line with last season's (which isn't good, but isn't godawful), and their shooting has rebounded [11% in last ten] that they're in they'd been in top-tier of the league.

So... offensive play isn't quite holding up, but the better than league average shooting is compensating for now. At the same time, defensive play isn't improving, but goaltending is rebounding to where it should be.

They remain a playoff bubble team, I think.

 

Online Zee

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #21 on: December 29, 2016, 10:41:51 PM »
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #22 on: December 29, 2016, 10:44:48 PM »

Yeah, it seems more likely that the Leafs have two Calder finalists.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline disco

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #23 on: December 29, 2016, 10:46:14 PM »
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Online Zee

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #24 on: December 30, 2016, 07:03:46 AM »
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.
Kadri isn't even the best defensive forward on the Leafs let alone the league. I know he's done well in his new shutdown role but c'mon.

With respect to Calder, like Nik said Leafs might have two finalists, but as it's going now I think it's more likely the finalists are Matthews, Laine and Werenski. There's still a lot of season to go though.

Offline disco

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #25 on: January 04, 2017, 03:11:00 PM »
Just looking at the Eastern Conference goal differentials:

1. Columbus +52
2. NY Rangers +35
3. Montreal + 28
4. Pittsburgh + 26
5. Washington +22
6. Toronto + 4
7. Tampa Bay +2
8. Boston - 2
9. Philadelphia - 4
10. Ottawa - 4

Wins and goal-differential line up a lot closer than they ever have before, now that every team spends pretty much the same $72-million in payroll. We can skate with everyone on that list, as evidenced by our competitive games against them, and I'd say only the top five are clearly better teams than us right now. Remarkable considering we're only one year removed from complete basement dwelling. That's the salary-cap era.
« Last Edit: January 04, 2017, 03:22:17 PM by disco »
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline freer

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #26 on: January 04, 2017, 07:28:15 PM »
One or two small pieces to be an excellent team.. IMO they can now be a playoff team.

Offline disco

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #27 on: February 07, 2017, 10:33:32 PM »
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It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2017, 02:02:54 AM by disco »
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #28 on: February 08, 2017, 08:27:25 AM »
It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.

It's also funny to think that an Atlantic team is better off finishing 2nd or 3rd as opposed to 1st. Gets you an easier first round opponent.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2017, 08:32:07 AM »

Crazy to think that even with a middling shootout record the Leafs would really be in the running for the #1 spot in the division.
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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #29 on: February 08, 2017, 08:32:07 AM »