Author Topic: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?  (Read 5713 times)

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Offline mr grieves

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#TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« on: November 03, 2016, 12:04:30 PM »
Yes, I think, they are.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-10>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Current On PaceProj.vs. 2015-16
SF 343 (1st) 2,813 (1st) n/a 2,517 (6th)
SCF 93 (2nd)  763 (1st)n/a 498 (19th)
Sh%8.5% (20) 8.5% (24)8.8% (15) 7.6% (30)
GF29 (10th) 238 (4th)248 (3rd)198 (28th)
SA318 (25th)2,608 (28)n/a2,501 (21)
SCA78 (24th)640 (29)n/a504 (13)
Sv%.887 (26).887 (30).908 (15).904 (23rd)
GA........37 (28th)......287 (30)....... 240 (24)......246 (24th)......

Messed up the table, so one line is missing. Goal differential:
Current: -8 (25th) => Pace: -49 (29th) => Proj: +8 (16th) => 15/16: -49 (29th)

Pace assumes the percentages (shooting, saving) don't change while Projected assumes they settle at league average (15th ranked team last year). SCF and SCA are 5v5, but otherwise the stats are 'all situations.'

Think I might do this every ten games or so to see how the team's coming along.

===
UPDATED: to include games 11-20 in the pace & projections...

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
..................Current...............Pace...................Projected............vs. 2015-16........
SF679 (4th)2,651 (1st)n/a2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF183 (1st)715 (1st)n/a498 (19th)
Sh%9.7% (7th)9.7% (6th)8.8% (avg)7.6% (30th)
GF66 (T-3rd)258 (2nd)233 (7th)191 (28th)
SA698 (29th)2,726 (30th)n/a2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA165 (29th)644 (29th)n/a504 (13th)
Sv%.904 (22nd).904 (23rd).908 (avg).904 (23rd)
GA66 (27th)262 (30th)251 (29th)240 (24th)
DIFF.-1 (14th)-4 (17th)-17 (20th)-49 (29th)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2016, 03:30:23 PM by mr grieves »

Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2016, 12:43:48 PM »
I've been subtly trying to beat this drum too, I think they're going to be a bubble team this year.

The injection of talent they've had this season is unprecedented, it's unlike any other team transformation I can remember from one season to the next.

Online Kaberle15

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2016, 12:58:01 PM »
In other years (or GM/Coach) they would be Faithfull to the Vets like Laich, Greening, Michalek... The way they demoted than all to keep the youth playing was unprecedented.

Some few adjusts left yet, but overall on the right track... and as the Kids adapt to the pace of the NHL, a bottom 5 is expected, anything other than that would be a very good surprise.
A.K.A Gardiner51, Changed back to Kaberle15 now that he is retired.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2016, 01:12:36 PM »
Except, based on how they've started, I don't think a bottom 5 is very likely.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2016, 01:18:23 PM »

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline No.92

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2016, 01:20:07 PM »
It's a new era!  It's exciting!

Offline mr grieves

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2016, 01:34:21 PM »
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2016, 01:50:48 PM »
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.
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Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2016, 02:05:49 PM »
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Wait, are you saying the rookies will hit a wall?  Has Matthews already hit the wall?  ;D

Offline mr grieves

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2016, 02:09:35 PM »
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Yeah, they're way out ahead -- with the best in the league and on pace for a remarkable number of shots and chances -- in terms of shots and chances for, and I'd imagine the rest of the league will soon tighten up, pushing that down. I expect they'll fall, and am curious to see how far...

I also expect they'll improve a bit at defense -- with a terrible roster, Babcock got the 15-16 team to be perfectly mediocre at limiting chances against -- so that might mitigate the decline in offense.

Offline McGarnagle

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2016, 02:21:12 PM »
I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat. On the optimistic side, the depth of that talent on the roster is such that you can have a bunch of these players "take the night off" so to speak, and there's still talent there that can make a difference. That's definitely new since the lockout.

Defensive zone coverage and the D in general are bottom of the league weak, and I don't expect that to change much, barring a trade. There's been some serious fire drills in the leafs defensive end, and it'll take more than coaching to eliminate that this season I would think.


Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2016, 02:27:05 PM »
I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat.

Just to clear it up though, this is only half of the story. Right now Matthews and Nylander, playing together have a CF/60 of 78.95. Alex Ovechkin, in the year where he scored 65 goals, was at 66.40. So it's not "I expect the young guys to come down a bit" but rather that I'd expect anyone to come down a bit. The idea that they're young and might hit a significant wall...that's what might explain them cooling off a lot.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online bustaheims

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2016, 09:45:03 PM »
While it's nice that they've won the last couple games, if the way they've played in those contests becomes a trend, a lot of those positive looking numbers are going to go south in a hurry.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline mr grieves

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #13 on: November 07, 2016, 05:27:34 PM »
Looks like they got things back on track against the Canucks.


Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2016, 03:28:53 AM »
While it's expected that the team may go in a slump every now and then, no one would be expecting the young Leafs to "hit a wall" significantly or even for a prolonged period of time,  Somehow with all of the talent the team carries now, to have one or two of these players In a funk for too long doesn't seem plausible, not when there's others to take up the slack.

Then again, who knows, anything can happen.  It's good to remain optimistic, as the air around the Leafs these days is nothing but that, optimism.

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Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2016, 03:28:53 AM »