Author Topic: Nazem Kadri  (Read 5301 times)

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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2016, 09:06:34 AM »

Something that speaks to how good Kadri's been in the early going is he's got 9 points in 12 games and his linemates, combined, have 6 points.

Yeah the kids have definitely taken a lot of the attention away from him but putting up a 60-point pace with his linemates while going up against the top competition is very impressive.

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2016, 09:28:28 AM »

Something that speaks to how good Kadri's been in the early going is he's got 9 points in 12 games and his linemates, combined, have 6 points.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say.  Yes, Kadri has been good this year, but to say his line-mates haven't is a bit misleading.  They sport an above 51 CF% in tough matchups.  I think since Michalek was replaced by Brown they've been pretty good.

Plus, how many of Kadri's points have come 5-on-5?  Not many:

4 points on the PP (he lines up with Nylander and Matthews for that)
OT goal against Edmonton (3-on-3)
4-on-4 goal against Vancouver (Komarov doing his job in front of the net, Reilly and Zaitsev with the assists)

5-on-5, only three points:
His first goal against Edmonton was nicely set up by Brown
His point against Florida he was on the ice with Marner and Bozak (middle of a line change I assume)
His goal against Winnipeg, Michalek was in on (2nd assist)

Anyways, considering the tough matchups the Kadri line faces each night, I'm not sure who I'd put on his line other than Komarov and Brown.





Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2016, 09:37:43 AM »
I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

That Kadri, who is a good offensive player, has been productive despite being on a line with guys who aren't really good offensive players. That he hasn't a ton at 5 v 5 seems to confirm that.
4 points on the PP (he lines up with Nylander and Matthews for that)
OT goal against Edmonton (3-on-3)
4-on-4 goal against Vancouver (Komarov doing his job in front of the net, Reilly and Zaitsev with the assists)

Anyways, considering the tough matchups the Kadri line faces each night, I'm not sure who I'd put on his line other than Komarov and Brown.

I'm not necessarily advocating a change, just pointing out that if Kadri stays with this line all year his point total is probably going to be a little artificially depressed.
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Online Bullfrog

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2016, 10:34:42 AM »

I'm not necessarily advocating a change, just pointing out that if Kadri stays with this line all year his point total is probably going to be a little artificially depressed.

That's ultimately why I picked Matthews over Kadri in the points prediction thread. I think Kadri may end up the MVP of the team, but will be depressed in points as you say.

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2016, 11:49:17 AM »
I wouldnt mind seeing Sosh moved up to play with Kadri.
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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #20 on: November 07, 2016, 12:19:43 PM »
That Kadri, who is a good offensive player, has been productive despite being on a line with guys who aren't really good offensive players. That he hasn't a ton at 5 v 5 seems to confirm that.

I'm not necessarily advocating a change, just pointing out that if Kadri stays with this line all year his point total is probably going to be a little artificially depressed.

I agree that Komarov is offensively challenged, despite his output last year. 

I don't agree that Brown isn't good offensively.  He's produced well at every single level he's played and he's still getting his feet wet in the NHL, on a line with the toughest defensive assignment each night. 

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #21 on: November 07, 2016, 12:34:15 PM »
I don't agree that Brown isn't good offensively.  He's produced well at every single level he's played and he's still getting his feet wet in the NHL, on a line with the toughest defensive assignment each night.

1. That statement re: Kadri includes Michalek's time.

2. It's pretty safe to say that by virtue of making the NHL you've probably produced at every single level you've ever played at. Remember Rob Schremp? Rico Fata? Lots of guys hit a brick wall in terms of scoring at the NHL level.

3. That said, while I think Brown might be a good offensive player at some point I don't think he's going to be a legit 1st liner.
3.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2016, 12:52:09 PM »
I don't agree that Brown isn't good offensively.  He's produced well at every single level he's played and he's still getting his feet wet in the NHL, on a line with the toughest defensive assignment each night.

1. That statement re: Kadri includes Michalek's time.

2. It's pretty safe to say that by virtue of making the NHL you've probably produced at every single level you've ever played at. Remember Rob Schremp? Rico Fata? Lots of guys hit a brick wall in terms of scoring at the NHL level.

3. That said, while I think Brown might be a good offensive player at some point I don't think he's going to be a legit 1st liner.
3.

1.  That time was pretty limited, so i don't see how it will impact his end-of-year totals much unless Michalek is called back up and inserted on Kadri's line.

2.  I can't argue with that.  You are absolutely correct.  His offensive skills may not translate to the NHL. 

3.  I wasn't saying Brown would be a 1st liner either.  Kadri isn't a legit 1st liner either.  His P/60 at 5 on 5 over the last 4 seasons sits below 1.5, which is also below Leo Komarov's output over that span.  So who is depressing who's stats at 5 on 5? (I say that completely tongue in cheek)

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2016, 01:03:17 PM »

Re: Michalek I just was referring to what Kadri's done so far. That wasn't so much a long term statement.

As to what Brown might be, or what Kadri is, I'm really saying that perception of Kadri might change if he had guys on his wing who were dragging his point totals up as opposed to vice-versa.

And for what it's worth I think points/60 is kind of a tricky stat that isn't as informative as we might like. Using a similar four year window Thomas Vanek is way ahead of Alex Ovechkin.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2016, 01:47:07 PM »

Re: Michalek I just was referring to what Kadri's done so far. That wasn't so much a long term statement.

As to what Brown might be, or what Kadri is, I'm really saying that perception of Kadri might change if he had guys on his wing who were dragging his point totals up as opposed to vice-versa.

And for what it's worth I think points/60 is kind of a tricky stat that isn't as informative as we might like. Using a similar four year window Thomas Vanek is way ahead of Alex Ovechkin.

You think if Kadri had better wingers the perception might be that he'd be a legit 1st liner?  I don't buy it. 

I think P/60 isn't a good stat in a small sample size.  Just look at the standings for the player with the best P/60 5-on-5 over the last four seasons, minimum 100 minutes:

Mitch Marner:  3.42  ;D
Matthew Tkachuk:  2.94
Anthony Beauvillier:  2.67
Jimmy Vesey:  2.65
Joel Hanley:  2.62
Tyler Motte:  2.62
Paul Bissonnette:  2.60   :o
Jamie Benn:  2.58
Sidney Crosby:  2.54
Oliver Bjorkstrand:  2.54
Connor McDavid:  2.50
Vladimir Tarasenko:  2.46
Tyler Seguin:  2.45
Patrick Kane:  2.43
Ryan Getzlaf:  2.43
Travis Konecny:  2.42

However, in a much larger sample size, I don't think looking at P/60 over a longer sample size (say 1000 minutes minimum, over 4 years) gives us a poor indication of the best players in the NHL 5 on 5.  And I'm not surprised Ovechkin is down at 83rd on that list, below Vanek and a number of others you'd be surprised to hear.  Ovechkin doesn't get alot of assists (below 350th in the NHL over the past 4 years, 1000 minutes min).  Vanek was a very productive player up until last year, when age caught up to him and he no longer looked quick anymore.

Where Ovechkin goes from 1st line player to absolutely elite is on the Power-play.  He's got 71 PP goals since '13-'14  (72 goals 5-on-5 in that same time-span). Pavelski is 2nd over that span with 47 PP goals- that's a huge drop!  It helps that only Erik Karlsson has played more PP minutes than Ovechkin over that span.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2016, 01:52:00 PM »
I just realized that when you say "4 years" what you actually mean is 3 years and the start of this year.

Anyways, I don't think points/60 is completely valueless. I just think it's got some flaws and one of them is, for instance, a slight bias against players who get tough defensive matchups. So over the last 4 full(or sort of full as that includes 12-13) Kadri is right around where guys like Giroux, Johansen or O'Reilly are in terms of points/60
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2016, 02:10:11 PM »
I just realized that when you say "4 years" what you actually mean is 3 years and the start of this year.

Anyways, I don't think points/60 is completely valueless. I just think it's got some flaws and one of them is, for instance, a slight bias against players who get tough defensive matchups. So over the last 4 full(or sort of full as that includes 12-13) Kadri is right around where guys like Giroux, Johansen or O'Reilly are in terms of points/60

Sorry, yes I should have been more clear.  Kadri gets a HUGE boost from '12-'13, when he played on the third line and feasted against weak opposition- Grabovski (in particular) and Bozak always lined up against top opposition.

'12-'16 (not including this year, they don't have that option):  1.76 P/60
'13-'17 (not including his big year):  1.47 P/60

Since Babcock took over and asked Kadri to play the heavy minutes:  1.11 P/60
(The reason I didn't just show that number is because its mostly from last season, when he was saddled with Komarov and Grabner pretty much all year, and had a terrible time scoring despite generating a lot of shots.  Komarov is by his side again, so yeah, not much help.)

I don't think he's as effective as the guys you mentioned at generating offense 5-on-5 while having a heavy load of defensive assignments.  I do think he's very effective in his role though, as is the whole line really, as they sport a positive Corsi under tough assignments.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #27 on: November 07, 2016, 02:15:56 PM »

It's a mixed bag I think. If you include 12-13, yeah, he does get a big boost from some things he did last year that weren't sustainable but as you point out the same is true with last year. I think including one but not the other gives something of a distorted shot of who he is.

Anyways, I largely agree that Kadri isn't quite on the level of those guys but I think that if, in general, he played with better linemates then the perception wouldn't be that he's on another planet either.

To boil it down to its essence, I think he's a little underrated.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #28 on: November 07, 2016, 02:26:31 PM »
To boil it down to its essence, I think he's a little underrated.

Around the league, I'd agree he's a little underrated.  Among Leaf fans, its a mixed bag as there are a number of opinions on him. 

I think he's a good 2nd line center that can handle the opposition's top line night in and night out.  As he matures, he may become "very good" in that role.  Then again, if Matthews AND Nylander end up as centermen, then Kadri may end up being one of the best third line checking centers in the NHL, one who can move up the lineup and not hurt you.

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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2016, 02:41:58 PM »
I don't agree that Brown isn't good offensively.  He's produced well at every single level he's played and he's still getting his feet wet in the NHL, on a line with the toughest defensive assignment each night.

1. That statement re: Kadri includes Michalek's time.

2. It's pretty safe to say that by virtue of making the NHL you've probably produced at every single level you've ever played at. Remember Rob Schremp? Rico Fata? Lots of guys hit a brick wall in terms of scoring at the NHL level.



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Re: Nazem Kadri
« Reply #29 on: November 07, 2016, 02:41:58 PM »