Author Topic: 2016 Offseason Review  (Read 2540 times)

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Online herman

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #30 on: September 12, 2016, 11:38:41 AM »
3 of those 8 have been in the 6th round, a place where you're lucky to get a spare NHL part. Being as I think the Leafs are pretty set for bottom pairing/press box defensemen I don't know how relevant that is.
I don't know how true that is(if it is, I would suspect it has a great deal to do with how one defines "effective"). In terms of potential top pairing guys I would doubt that very much. Off the top of my head once you get outside the 3rd round in terms of impact defensemen you have Stralman, Klingberg, Muzzin, Brodie, Giordano...I'm sure I'm missing someone but that's not a great bunch.

Fair points. I'd be curious to know how many impact defensemen come out of rd 3+ too. Honestly, I really agree we should spend some higher picks on prime defense picks. Just spitballing why the Hunter drafts haven't really focused on them to the degree we'd like to see. L K might have some additional insight here as the Knights appear to have drafted similarly under Hunter's watch.


I don't think there's any sort of definitive statement on when to draft for organizational need as opposed to just taking the best player available(which is itself a subjective matter). I think drafting for NHL need is always a bad idea but prospect need? I don't think that's a bad thing at any stage of the process. Especially when you're never dealing with a situation where anyone could definitively say whether or not one prospect is better than the other.

I like this comment a lot.

Whatever happened to the best defense being a good offense? I thought that was the strategy you were pushing? Now the Leafs draft some lumbering goons on the backend and we're back to recognizing the value of crease clearers?

The Leafs aren't "loaded" on offensive defensemen. The single season high of anyone the Leafs have is 36 points and Rielly ever becoming a #1 calibre guy is far from a sure thing. Taking the sort of "offensive" defenseman that can become the sort of guy who puts points on the board and keeps the puck generally in the opposing zone is a good thing regardless of who they have on the roster.

I still definitely advocate for good offense driving good defense, largely derived from a mobile backend and supportive forwards. What I meant in reference to our young offsensive defensemen stable was that a lot of them were of the small and fast variety. I wouldn't consider the ones we drafted most recently to be goonish "crease-clearers" only other than Middleton.

I had lots of misgivings about the Neilsen and Desrocher picks last year, but at least one of them has shown he has developed beyond his pre-draft scouting report. I see them as trying to round out their backend with guys that can bull through a forecheck and reclaim the puck and move it back in the right direction. JD Greenway is an exciting prospect to keep an eye out for me, in that regard. It's not like there's no value in adding big and mean to fast, as long as it doesn't come at the expense of skill.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2016, 12:01:19 PM »

Fair points. I'd be curious to know how many impact defensemen come out of rd 3+ too. Honestly, I really agree we should spend some higher picks on prime defense picks. Just spitballing why the Hunter drafts haven't really focused on them to the degree we'd like to see.

"Sometimes, this organization may make bad decisions" is also an attempt to figure out why they might do something.



I had lots of misgivings about the Neilsen and Desrocher picks last year, but at least one of them has shown he has developed beyond his pre-draft scouting report. I see them as trying to round out their backend with guys that can bull through a forecheck and reclaim the puck and move it back in the right direction. JD Greenway is an exciting prospect to keep an eye out for me, in that regard. It's not like there's no value in adding big and mean to fast, as long as it doesn't come at the expense of skill.

But that's largely meaningless in this context. If you're drafting in the 2nd and 3rd rounds for defensemen you're not going to be getting someone who's big, fast and just as skilled as the smaller guys. Those guys are high first round picks. When you're floating mid round picks you're going to be sacrificing one thing for another.

Nielsen having a good Draft +1 year in junior is great and everything but there's a long way between that and becoming the sort of defenseman the team is looking for.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online herman

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #32 on: September 12, 2016, 12:20:15 PM »
"Sometimes, this organization may make bad decisions" is also an attempt to figure out why they might do something.

"Bad" is the potential result, not exactly the reason why they're doing something. I think we're in agreement that the Leafs should spend picks on high potential defensemen earlier in the draft. Just because Hunter did something different than what we wanted/value doesn't automatically make it a bad decision, does it?

Our recently drafted defensemen:
James "JD" Greenway: Pros: big, mean, good cruising speed, good hands; Cons: not good under pressure
Keaton Middleton: Pros: big, mean; Cons: skating is improving but not great, no offense
Jonathan "Jack" Walker: Pros: faaaaast, agile, puck handling at speed, played forward too; Cons: smaller, D+2 pick
Nicolas Mattinen: Pros: big, RHD, can play forward, NHL-level slapshot; Cons: slow, still getting used to his size, mostly unknown due to sitting much of last season

The only baffling one right now is Middleton. The others have trade-offs, but they look quite projectable.

I think the defensemen I really want are in the top 5, and sort of within the top 15. Anything after feels largely meaningless to ascribe value to the draft round/pick number the pick ends up coming in at.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #33 on: September 12, 2016, 12:59:56 PM »

Fair points. I'd be curious to know how many impact defensemen come out of rd 3+ too. Honestly, I really agree we should spend some higher picks on prime defense picks. Just spitballing why the Hunter drafts haven't really focused on them to the degree we'd like to see.

"Sometimes, this organization may make bad decisions" is also an attempt to figure out why they might do something.



They must have had some reasoning behind it, poor reasoning or not.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #34 on: September 12, 2016, 01:52:14 PM »

"Bad" is the potential result, not exactly the reason why they're doing something.

No, but I'm not overly interested in their reasoning. I'm sure their reasoning is roughly the same as the reasoning behind every draft pick in history whether it be spectacular find or damaging bust. Of the various players available, they chose the ones that they thought would help them the most. The unknown is their competence. That they thought it was the right thing to do is neither interesting nor validating.

So when they do something that seems counter-intuitive, them potentially being just flat-out wrong is as good a reason as any. Especially when it's in a summer full of pretty baffling decisions outside of the automatic ones.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #35 on: October 13, 2016, 06:38:30 PM »
Now that it's on season, it might actually be a decent time to take a look at our offseason again.

The Draft (excepting Matthews) and Free Agency was a head turner for the wrong reasons, although new light is helping the Draft look way rosier than our initial hot takes.

What has changed the most since this thread was started were the lineup decisions. Like a refreshing spray of snowplowed ice chips, management actually cut the vets we thought would bog down the progress of the youth (at least on the forward side).

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2016, 07:51:38 PM »

I stand by each and everyone of my hot takes.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2016, 07:51:38 PM »