Author Topic: 2016 Offseason Review  (Read 2542 times)

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Offline Tigger

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2016, 11:23:58 PM »
The Ghat: Auston Matthews
The Great: Signing Rielly and Kadri, divesting of Phaneuf
The Gracious Good: Not signing Stamkos for tons
The Good: Carrick and Marincin signings
The Gat: Nylander, Soshnikov, Brown, Hyman
The Ghood: yeah Enroth, Komarov played well
The Gouda: Andersen
The Galleon: Hopeful draft, returns on trades
The Golem: Martin
The Gollum: Kessel cup
The Gallows: Bernier
"My father was born shortly after the Wright Brothers" Charlie Duke

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2016, 09:16:30 AM »
I know there have been some musings about the Leafs acting all "Lou" in some of their decision-making this off-season. This article from Maple Leafs Hotstove goes some way towards presenting a case that those reporting the demise of the analytics influence in Toronto, may be at least a little off base.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/09/08/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-analytics/

Quote
As we move past Labour Day and the hockey world turns its attention to the upcoming World Cup and 2016-17 season, a set of narratives have come and gone this past summer – Stammer-geddon, Vesey-gate, and the 2016 draft, to name a few.

In particular, Leafs Nation seems to have shifted its tone slightly. Although most are still quite optimistic about the team’s future, some have also started to call into question the front office’s focus on analytics, its effectiveness at ‘salesmanship’, and more.

Reflecting on some of these storylines, there were a few that I thought might be interesting to test out with some objective, data-based analysis in order to see just how accurate they really are. As a result, this article will be the first of a few in what I will call my ‘Mythbusters Series’. Let’s get into it.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2016, 09:24:03 AM »

Isn't that the same article herman posted at the beginning of the thread?
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Offline herman

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2016, 10:36:19 AM »
It is an interesting article, which helped me understand our draft strategy a bit better. Lou's Cone of Silence is both a source of frustration and intrigue.

Except they lifted the team publication ban on salary figures and went full bonus for Matthews (duh), which are all decidedly un-Lou.

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2016, 12:54:33 PM »

Isn't that the same article herman posted at the beginning of the thread?

It is, that's my bad.

I read the full thing this morning, it was part of a Leafs news roundup this morning and had yesterday as the publish date.

I didn't want to start a new thread so I dumped it in here because it looked loosely related.

I've been busy and haven't been keeping up with the threads unfortunately.

Offline Frank E

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2016, 12:57:40 PM »

Isn't that the same article herman posted at the beginning of the thread?

It is, that's my bad.

I read the full thing this morning, it was part of a Leafs news roundup this morning and had yesterday as the publish date.

I didn't want to start a new thread so I dumped it in here because it looked loosely related.

I've been busy and haven't been keeping up with the threads unfortunately.

Quit fooling around with work stuff and pay attention.

Offline herman

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2016, 01:28:56 PM »
I didn't want to start a new thread so I dumped it in here because it looked loosely related.

I didn't want to start a new thread for a single article, so I made a thread for all the similar articles (especially it's two other upcoming articles), and now I feel accomplished that you picked this thread for it.

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2016, 02:47:32 PM »
The Ghat: Auston Matthews
The Great: Signing Rielly and Kadri, divesting of Phaneuf
The Gracious Good: Not signing Stamkos for tons
The Good: Carrick and Marincin signings
The Gat: Nylander, Soshnikov, Brown, Hyman
The Ghood: yeah Enroth, Komarov played well
The Gouda: Andersen
The Galleon: Hopeful draft, returns on trades
The Golem: Martin
The Gollum: Kessel cup
The Gallows: Bernier


The poor thing.  :o  :)

Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 09:32:05 AM »
I think far more of you are really gonna appreciate the Matt Martin signing as the season gets underway.

The only real head-scratcher for me is the Andersen trade when Reimer could obviously been re-signed at much better value for what they both bring.

But it was time to end any and all Bernier/Reimer goalie controversy and usher in a new era as this team rebuilds, so I'm okay with and understand the decision. 

The Kadri/Rielly signings were a spot of pure genius.

The draft is the draft.  Its a crap shoot at best after the top ten OA so I have no problem with them going off the radar.  Our re-vamped scouting department saw something and we needed some size and grit to go with the plethora of speed/skill acquired in 2015.  A good team needs balance.

The last two summers overall have been the best I've experienced as a Leafs fan as far back as I can remember.

Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2016, 08:37:48 PM »
I think far more of you are really gonna appreciate the Matt Martin signing as the season gets underway.

The only real head-scratcher for me is the Andersen trade when Reimer could obviously been re-signed at much better value for what they both bring.

But it was time to end any and all Bernier/Reimer goalie controversy and usher in a new era as this team rebuilds, so I'm okay with and understand the decision. 

The Kadri/Rielly signings were a spot of pure genius.

The draft is the draft.  Its a crap shoot at best after the top ten OA so I have no problem with them going off the radar.  Our re-vamped scouting department saw something and we needed some size and grit to go with the plethora of speed/skill acquired in 2015.  A good team needs balance.

The last two summers overall have been the best I've experienced as a Leafs fan as far back as I can remember.

It's sad when the best two summers are the two that surround a last place finish. Not to say these having been encouraging summers, just that you know the team has hit a low when that's a common sentiment. They're turning a corner for sure, but still.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2016, 08:56:41 AM »

While I think there's an interesting discussion to be had about what the drafting of big forwards means re: the influence of analytics within the Leafs braintrust and, to some extent, the game itself I think it's probably best not to look at that as the more common criticism of the Leafs' draft which is that a team that already had a lot of forward talent in it's prospect pool used it's first three picks on forwards and didn't take a defenseman until #72 despite a bunch of opportunities to add a bunch of interesting high upside defensemen(Girard, Dineen, Allard, etc). Also their most panned pick was going big over small on defense(Middleton).

Typically I don't like post-draft "Why didn't you take Player X over Player Y" criticisms because I think we're just as hopeless as NHL GMs are in telling who'll be the right pick but I think general strategy in terms of position and the types of players are ripe for criticism. For the life of me, I just can't understand the reluctance to roll the dice on high risk, high reward defensemen.
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Offline RedLeaf

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2016, 12:23:31 PM »

While I think there's an interesting discussion to be had about what the drafting of big forwards means re: the influence of analytics within the Leafs braintrust and, to some extent, the game itself I think it's probably best not to look at that as the more common criticism of the Leafs' draft which is that a team that already had a lot of forward talent in it's prospect pool used it's first three picks on forwards and didn't take a defenseman until #72 despite a bunch of opportunities to add a bunch of interesting high upside defensemen(Girard, Dineen, Allard, etc). Also their most panned pick was going big over small on defense(Middleton).

Typically I don't like post-draft "Why didn't you take Player X over Player Y" criticisms because I think we're just as hopeless as NHL GMs are in telling who'll be the right pick but I think general strategy in terms of position and the types of players are ripe for criticism. For the life of me, I just can't understand the reluctance to roll the dice on high risk, high reward defensemen.

I can't help but wonder if that will be the strategy for next years draft. They seem to be attacking draft day from different angles the past 2 years.
"The Maple Leafs are like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water, and my job is to get the ship pointed in the right direction." --Steve Jobs for Brendan Shanahan.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2016, 01:12:07 PM »

While I think there's an interesting discussion to be had about what the drafting of big forwards means re: the influence of analytics within the Leafs braintrust and, to some extent, the game itself I think it's probably best not to look at that as the more common criticism of the Leafs' draft which is that a team that already had a lot of forward talent in it's prospect pool used it's first three picks on forwards and didn't take a defenseman until #72 despite a bunch of opportunities to add a bunch of interesting high upside defensemen(Girard, Dineen, Allard, etc). Also their most panned pick was going big over small on defense(Middleton).

Typically I don't like post-draft "Why didn't you take Player X over Player Y" criticisms because I think we're just as hopeless as NHL GMs are in telling who'll be the right pick but I think general strategy in terms of position and the types of players are ripe for criticism. For the life of me, I just can't understand the reluctance to roll the dice on high risk, high reward defensemen.

I can't help but wonder if that will be the strategy for next years draft. They seem to be attacking draft day from different angles the past 2 years.

It's certainly possible but even if so I think you'd be in a tough situation because of the typical development curves of defensemen. Sure, maybe they get lucky and get someone near the top of the draft who can step in right away but with late 1sts and 2nd round picks you're usually talking about 4-5 years post draft until those guys are at their peak.

So if we're hoping on uncovering the next Weber/Keith you want to get a start on those development years now.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline herman

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2016, 10:35:35 PM »
I agree with a lot of what Nik is saying, re: why not pick some high upside d-men with those late rd 1/rd 2 picks, particularly with their longer development lead times.

On the flip side, the Leafs have been picking 4 defensemen in each of the past two drafts, out of 9 picks and 11 picks, which is still a pretty substantial number of defensemen if you consider the ratio of forwards to defense to goaltenders per team (and thus your team prospect pipeline). Effective defensemen have also been found south of the 2nd round with more apparent frequency than forwards, right? And aren't we still a bit early in the rebuild to be drafting for specific need rather than BPA?

As for why we haven't bitten on Kylington, Girard, Dineen, Allard... I wonder if it's because we're pretty loaded up on young offensive defensemen at the top already. As long as the Leafs keep picking BPA players with good to great skating and smarts, I think it'll even out nicely. Some of our panned defense picks from 2015 have surprised nicely (Neilsen, esp.).

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2016, 10:51:12 AM »
On the flip side, the Leafs have been picking 4 defensemen in each of the past two drafts, out of 9 picks and 11 picks, which is still a pretty substantial number of defensemen if you consider the ratio of forwards to defense to goaltenders per team (and thus your team prospect pipeline).

3 of those 8 have been in the 6th round, a place where you're lucky to get a spare NHL part. Being as I think the Leafs are pretty set for bottom pairing/press box defensemen I don't know how relevant that is.

Effective defensemen have also been found south of the 2nd round with more apparent frequency than forwards, right?

I don't know how true that is(if it is, I would suspect it has a great deal to do with how one defines "effective"). In terms of potential top pairing guys I would doubt that very much. Off the top of my head once you get outside the 3rd round in terms of impact defensemen you have Stralman, Klingberg, Muzzin, Brodie, Giordano...I'm sure I'm missing someone but that's not a great bunch.

And aren't we still a bit early in the rebuild to be drafting for specific need rather than BPA?

I don't think there's any sort of definitive statement on when to draft for organizational need as opposed to just taking the best player available(which is itself a subjective matter). I think drafting for NHL need is always a bad idea but prospect need? I don't think that's a bad thing at any stage of the process. Especially when you're never dealing with a situation where anyone could definitively say whether or not one prospect is better than the other.

As for why we haven't bitten on Kylington, Girard, Dineen, Allard... I wonder if it's because we're pretty loaded up on young offensive defensemen at the top already. As long as the Leafs keep picking BPA players with good to great skating and smarts, I think it'll even out nicely. Some of our panned defense picks from 2015 have surprised nicely (Neilsen, esp.).

Whatever happened to the best defense being a good offense? I thought that was the strategy you were pushing? Now the Leafs draft some lumbering goons on the backend and we're back to recognizing the value of crease clearers?

The Leafs aren't "loaded" on offensive defensemen. The single season high of anyone the Leafs have is 36 points and Rielly ever becoming a #1 calibre guy is far from a sure thing. Taking the sort of "offensive" defenseman that can become the sort of guy who puts points on the board and keeps the puck generally in the opposing zone is a good thing regardless of who they have on the roster.
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Re: 2016 Offseason Review
« Reply #29 on: September 12, 2016, 10:51:12 AM »