Author Topic: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews  (Read 41709 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #195 on: September 13, 2016, 05:34:36 PM »

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not that Matthews and Nylander crack 50 points. If JvR is healthy and Kadri's playing with a reasonably talented player, good chance they're both over 50. How much of an improvement do you really think it'll take for them to be drafting 5-10?

The Leafs last year were at -48 goal differential. The #5 team, Calgary, was at -33. The #10 team was at -24. So....they probably have to improve differential by 10-15 to get to #5, 20-25 to get to #10.

A 50 point rookie season is a pretty big deal. Some pretty high profile young players haven't hit that total and the ones who have were mainly thrust into the sorts of roles that the Leafs rookies very well might not be in. I wouldn't assume it's likely for any of them.
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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #196 on: September 13, 2016, 06:32:50 PM »

I'm not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's more likely than not that Matthews and Nylander crack 50 points. If JvR is healthy and Kadri's playing with a reasonably talented player, good chance they're both over 50. How much of an improvement do you really think it'll take for them to be drafting 5-10?

The Leafs last year were at -48 goal differential. The #5 team, Calgary, was at -33. The #10 team was at -24. So....they probably have to improve differential by 10-15 to get to #5, 20-25 to get to #10.

A 50 point rookie season is a pretty big deal. Some pretty high profile young players haven't hit that total and the ones who have were mainly thrust into the sorts of roles that the Leafs rookies very well might not be in. I wouldn't assume it's likely for any of them.

For an eighteen or nineteen year old coming out of junior, sure. But Nylander's 20 and Matthews is as old as Eichel, has been playing in men's leagues. Not saying it's an easy or sure thing, but the projections I've seen put them over 50, so would say it's more likely they hit it than they don't.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #197 on: September 13, 2016, 06:53:19 PM »
For an eighteen or nineteen year old coming out of junior, sure. But Nylander's 20 and Matthews is as old as Eichel, has been playing in men's leagues. Not saying it's an easy or sure thing, but the projections I've seen put them over 50, so would say it's more likely they hit it than they don't.

50 point rookie seasons are rare for any rookie. Mark Scheifele was in his draft +3 year as a rookie and had 34 points in 63 games and not, I think we'd agree, because he was a bad player without potential. Barkov was in the league two years before he cracked the mark. Sam Reinhart didn't get there, etc.

Score 50 points and you're effectively in Calder nomination territory. It seems pretty unlikely the Leafs will get three guys there. Obviously I can't speak to the projections you're talking about without seeing them but considering that Matthews is going to start as the team's #3 C and the other guys aren't guaranteed to start any higher it's going to be a tall order for any of them.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #198 on: September 13, 2016, 08:27:00 PM »

Also, on subject of the team improving and leaving the bottom 5 I think sometimes we look at these things just in isolation. Like the Leafs improvements can be figured just be looking at last year's roster.

But the league is designed to push teams towards the middle. So all teams on the bottom will get better. Paradoxically, that's what makes it hard for teams to climb out of the gutter.

Whether the rookies score 50 points or not aside we have to acknowledge the way other teams have also improved. The Leafs' rivals for the bottom last year will all be adding big pieces and will see their key pieces mature. I don't want to say that the Leafs, of the bottom feeders, improved the least but I don't think there's another team in the bottom 10 where you can't make a case for them improving just as much as the Leafs might.
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Offline sneakyray

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #199 on: September 15, 2016, 01:33:04 PM »

Also, on subject of the team improving and leaving the bottom 5 I think sometimes we look at these things just in isolation. Like the Leafs improvements can be figured just be looking at last year's roster.

But the league is designed to push teams towards the middle. So all teams on the bottom will get better. Paradoxically, that's what makes it hard for teams to climb out of the gutter.

Whether the rookies score 50 points or not aside we have to acknowledge the way other teams have also improved. The Leafs' rivals for the bottom last year will all be adding big pieces and will see their key pieces mature. I don't want to say that the Leafs, of the bottom feeders, improved the least but I don't think there's another team in the bottom 10 where you can't make a case for them improving just as much as the Leafs might.

but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #200 on: September 16, 2016, 11:54:35 PM »
but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.

Just to start with, I think you're wrong about the issues in Philly. Steve Mason, in his time there, has a .922 save percentage and Neuvirth is an excellent backup. Last year the Flyers were 8th in the league in Save Percentage and were middle of the pack in goals against. Their offense was a bigger problem(22nd in goals for).

As to the general bulk of your point, I think there's some merit there. Yes, some teams that are good will be less good and some teams that were bad will be less bad. That's what I mean about everyone being pushed to the middle. So, sure, it's easy to see Detroit potentially dropping out of a playoff spot but will they be markedly worse than the Leafs? There's no real reason to think that. Same with Boston. Teams don't tend to go from pretty good to completely terrible in the course of one year. Remember, the Leafs are looking to dig themselves out from the very bottom of the league.

I mean, look at your Kings example. Yes, the Kings missed the playoffs that one year but it's not because they fell off a cliff. Their record in the year they missed the playoffs was identical, even the exact same goal differential, as it was the year they won the cup in 11-12. They were only five points worse than the other year they'd won the cup. This year, they were only 7 points better. Those aren't wild swings. We're talking about the difference of a few games a year. Teams tend to find an equilibrium.

I'm sure there are some outliers where teams have gone from pretty good to terrible in a year or the other way around but I don't think that really changes what I was saying which is that you can't look at a team's improvements in isolation. Detroit has some reasons to be optimistic too(Larkin, Mrazek).

I'm not saying that the Leafs will for sure finish one place or another, just that the sorts of improvements we're talking about usually aren't immediate things. The Leafs have been sinking for a few years now, digging out of the hole will probably be a slow process. The Leafs will, just like last year, have some company at the bottom but it will take some time before they're clearly better than other teams.
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Offline sneakyray

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #201 on: September 17, 2016, 08:43:34 AM »
but what about some of the teams in the upper half of the league falling?

For instance...is this the year that detroit falls off a cliff?  what if chara is more awful this year and backes shows his age,  what if lundquist finally starts slowing down, what if montreal doesn't make the improvements that most people think they will this year, although it seems like philadelphia has figured things out they still have no goalie, is ottawa any better than last year?

anyways, my point being it might not have to be the bottom dwellers that the leafs leave in the dust but if 2 or three of the bottom dwellers climb at the expense of falling middling teams thats how they move up.

I mean, 2 years ago the kings missed the playoffs, that allowed winnipeg to make it.

is it that crazy to see detroit fallin out and having toronto make it instead?  Alot would have to right for toronto but its not comlpetely unthinkable.

Just to start with, I think you're wrong about the issues in Philly. Steve Mason, in his time there, has a .922 save percentage and Neuvirth is an excellent backup. Last year the Flyers were 8th in the league in Save Percentage and were middle of the pack in goals against. Their offense was a bigger problem(22nd in goals for).

As to the general bulk of your point, I think there's some merit there. Yes, some teams that are good will be less good and some teams that were bad will be less bad. That's what I mean about everyone being pushed to the middle. So, sure, it's easy to see Detroit potentially dropping out of a playoff spot but will they be markedly worse than the Leafs? There's no real reason to think that. Same with Boston. Teams don't tend to go from pretty good to completely terrible in the course of one year. Remember, the Leafs are looking to dig themselves out from the very bottom of the league.

I mean, look at your Kings example. Yes, the Kings missed the playoffs that one year but it's not because they fell off a cliff. Their record in the year they missed the playoffs was identical, even the exact same goal differential, as it was the year they won the cup in 11-12. They were only five points worse than the other year they'd won the cup. This year, they were only 7 points better. Those aren't wild swings. We're talking about the difference of a few games a year. Teams tend to find an equilibrium.

I'm sure there are some outliers where teams have gone from pretty good to terrible in a year or the other way around but I don't think that really changes what I was saying which is that you can't look at a team's improvements in isolation. Detroit has some reasons to be optimistic too(Larkin, Mrazek).

I'm not saying that the Leafs will for sure finish one place or another, just that the sorts of improvements we're talking about usually aren't immediate things. The Leafs have been sinking for a few years now, digging out of the hole will probably be a slow process. The Leafs will, just like last year, have some company at the bottom but it will take some time before they're clearly better than other teams.

I think we're on the same page.  I do think they will be better than last year and if they are in the bottom 3-5 teams I will be dissapointed but likewise if they challenge for a playoff spot I will be thrilled with their improvement.  I expect they will be somewhere in the 7-10 range from the bottom.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #202 on: September 17, 2016, 10:42:52 AM »

Speaking of Dylan Larkin, I wasn't aware just how much his scoring fell off in the second half. Remember all the talk about his all-star nod proving something vis a vis the selection of Nylander? Post All-Star break Larkin had 12 points in 32 games and Nylander had 13 points in 22 games.

I'm sure someone has pointed that out before but it struck me as noteworthy.
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Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #203 on: October 01, 2016, 07:38:18 PM »
The forgotten Nikita had himself a good night.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/10/01/watch-nikita-korostelevs-hat-trick-leads-sarnia-sting-7-4-win-ottawa/
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g9prjYTfNNw[/youtube]
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 10:49:30 AM by herman »

Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #204 on: October 06, 2016, 09:21:45 AM »
Jack Walker got some new hats.

http://vancouversun.com/sports/hockey/walkers-hat-trick-helps-royals-rule-giants-in-3-2-triumph
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQNU3VDOC8o[/youtube]

I wonder if there is any interest in converting him back to playing defense.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 10:47:56 AM by herman »

Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #205 on: October 06, 2016, 04:23:15 PM »
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/10/06/lou-lamoriello-talking-leafs-prospects-j-d-greenway-travis-dermott-jeremy-bracco/

I imagine this conversation to have taken place during a sleepover, them asking Lou to dish on the latest Leaf gossip, and which player he likes best... possibly playing MASH.

TL:DR; Lou called Dermott fat.

Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #206 on: October 07, 2016, 12:22:50 PM »
A good article about the one pick in 2015 that I had the most questions about:
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2016/10/7/13200268/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-desrocher-in-charge-of-inexperienced-frontenacs-team

Beyond this write up, Desrocher also notes how much the Leafs system changes year over year. Apparently we trend track and adjust as the league shifts.

Online herman

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #207 on: October 08, 2016, 01:06:51 AM »
Nikita Korostelev at it again: https://streamable.com/dul7
You may need a moment after this.

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/video-channels/highlights/oct-716-sar-6-kit-5-so
He and Bracco both had 3-point nights.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 01:08:45 AM by herman »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #208 on: October 08, 2016, 09:46:56 AM »
That's very much an OHL goal but dang if it isn't a pretty one.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #209 on: October 08, 2016, 10:13:50 AM »
I'm not sure that there's been a 7th round pick that made us as excited as Nikita Korostelev did when he was drafted. Unfortunately his D+1 season was a pretty big disappointment. He's a pretty massive long-shot at this point but hopefully he has a big D+2 year.

edit: Hey, apparently Stralman, Gunnarsson, and Johnsson were all 7th round picks.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 10:15:54 AM by CarltonTheBear »
Frank was right

#ButMartyIsANHLer

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Re: Ranking Prospects Post-Matthews
« Reply #209 on: October 08, 2016, 10:13:50 AM »