Author Topic: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread  (Read 23048 times)

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Online Frank E

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #300 on: October 04, 2016, 11:13:55 AM »

In what I'm sure is just the first in many, many season predictions, USA Today has theirs and it has the Leafs with 71 points, ahead of only the Canucks:

USA Today Point Predictions

This is going to be a weird season. I keep trying to figure out projected standings and the only teams that I see that I'm comfortable saying will be 70-ish point teams are Vancouver and Columbus. I look at teams like the Leafs, Devils, Sabres, and even Ottawa and Colorado after their coaching changes and think that they should be better than those USA projections. But somebody's gotta finish 24th-28th, and I'm not really sure which teams those guys would get replaced by.

It's getting pretty tough predicting this stuff with the NHL...that same article has Calgary at 99 points.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #301 on: October 04, 2016, 11:15:34 AM »
It's getting pretty tough predicting this stuff with the NHL...that same article has Calgary at 99 points.

Yeah I think that Brian Elliott and a real coaching staff is going to make for a big improvement there, but 22 points? That's nuts.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #302 on: October 04, 2016, 11:20:54 AM »

In what I'm sure is just the first in many, many season predictions, USA Today has theirs and it has the Leafs with 71 points, ahead of only the Canucks:

USA Today Point Predictions

This is going to be a weird season. I keep trying to figure out projected standings and the only teams that I see that I'm comfortable saying will be 70-ish point teams are Vancouver and Columbus. I look at teams like the Leafs, Devils, Sabres, and even Ottawa and Colorado after their coaching changes and think that they should be better than those USA projections. But somebody's gotta finish 24th-28th, and I'm not really sure which teams those guys would get replaced by.

I think we might see a bit of a push towards the middle this year, with the bottom teams being points wise a little better than usual but I agree those are the teams that figure to be in the mix for the bottom.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #303 on: October 04, 2016, 11:21:41 AM »
I believe Vegas released over/under odds for the Leafs at 80.5 points. Quite a different projection from what USA Today has them at.

Vegas odds aren't projections, they're to encourage betting.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline TBLeafer

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #304 on: October 04, 2016, 11:26:10 AM »
I believe Vegas released over/under odds for the Leafs at 80.5 points. Quite a different projection from what USA Today has them at.

Vegas odds aren't projections, they're to encourage betting.

Oddsmakers don't like to lose last time I checked.  Odds are set based on projections.  Like the Leafs being 85/1 to win the Stanley, tied with Jersey.  4 teams are lower than those two.  Worst being Carolina at 200/1.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #305 on: October 04, 2016, 11:34:28 AM »
Odds are set based on projections.

That's one factor of many. Including, like I said, encouraging people to gamble and minimizing the exposure a book will take.

The Leafs have a lot of fans who might down put money on them at a lark. So you don't need outlandishly high odds on them to encourage those bets. The same isn't true with a team like the Hurricanes.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #306 on: October 04, 2016, 11:51:08 AM »
It's getting pretty tough predicting this stuff with the NHL...that same article has Calgary at 99 points.

Which seems like a huge jump but if you dig into the numbers a little...

The Flames were 11th in the league in goals for, 10th in the league in shots against. They were dead last in the league in save percentage. But not just that, they were dead last by a comfortable margin. They were at .898, the next lowest was .906. There's almost the same gap between the Flames at 30 and the Hurricanes at 29 as there is between the Hurricanes and league average.

If the Flames had gotten a league average .915 SV% it would have saved them, if my math is right, 59 goals against. If you look at at a Pythagorean W-L chart a team with 230 goals, as Calgary had, and 201 allowed as they would have with that league average save percentage it's an expectation of 103 points.

So it's not like it's pulled out of nowhere.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline RedLeaf

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #307 on: October 04, 2016, 12:56:46 PM »

In what I'm sure is just the first in many, many season predictions, USA Today has theirs and it has the Leafs with 71 points, ahead of only the Canucks:

USA Today Point Predictions

This is going to be a weird season. I keep trying to figure out projected standings and the only teams that I see that I'm comfortable saying will be 70-ish point teams are Vancouver and Columbus. I look at teams like the Leafs, Devils, Sabres, and even Ottawa and Colorado after their coaching changes and think that they should be better than those USA projections. But somebody's gotta finish 24th-28th, and I'm not really sure which teams those guys would get replaced by.

It's getting pretty tough predicting this stuff with the NHL...that same article has Calgary at 99 points.

I'd take their prediction, and run as fast as I could all the way to the bank with that. For one thing, I know it's going to be a way more exciting team to watch this season than last, and to be able to once again get a shot at winning the draft lottery would be such an incredible opportunity to have again. I just don't see that happening myself. I don't think Babcock sees it turning out like that either.
"The Maple Leafs are like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water, and my job is to get the ship pointed in the right direction." --Steve Jobs for Brendan Shanahan.

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Re: 2016 Summer Housekeeping Thread
« Reply #308 on: October 04, 2016, 01:02:52 PM »