Author Topic: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap  (Read 11297 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline KadriFan

  • Marlie
  • **
  • Posts: 141
  • TMLfans Rocks!
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2016, 07:55:23 AM »
If Mark Hunter says they have upside and he's happy, then so am I.  Go Leafs Go.   Can't wait to see what's next. I'm guessing a trade for a young dman.   Someone with potential who has not worked out yet. 

Offline herman

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 7809
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2016, 08:21:52 AM »
Thanks, guys. It's just a guess really, based on what they've been saying publicly and some of the analyses other fans have dug up.

Hard to say how well these guys play, and hard to say if this tactic pays off until 2-3 years from now. This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though.

My key point though is that they didn't do anything differently this draft from the last (philosophically). The result is just how the market shook out.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2016, 08:24:22 AM by herman »

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 21718
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2016, 09:44:17 AM »

I think some people are generally confusing the idea of a player being a lower ceiling type with a player being a "ready soon" type. I think the difference can be highlighted with a guy like Gauthier who, when drafted, was sort of billed as the ultimate "low ceiling but safe bet" kind of guy and while there's some evidence to suggest that still might be the case I don't think too many of us are really expecting him to be a NHL regular until at least draft+4.

A lot of the things being cited as positives with the draft class(the ability for europeans to come to AHL immediately, european prospects playing against "grown men", different players having different development curves) aren't exactly new so it would stand to reason that there should at least be something in the way of evidence supporting this as a draft theory. I think the reason we're not seeing that is that a lot of what they did is actually bucking the information we have. As an immediate example, there's not a strong history of undrafted CHL players making big impacts in the NHL but there is a pretty extensive history of undrafted 20 year olds in the CHL putting up big numbers as overagers.

Bucking the evidence we have isn't always a recipe for disaster or even a bad decision but I do think it should at least be acknowledged.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 21718
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2016, 09:48:06 AM »
This management team hasn't been deliberately stupid before so I'm willing to wait and see. Hard to pass up on Dineen and Girard though. 

I think if you're inclined to put everything this management team does in the best possible light it's probably misleading to then use those reads as support for continuing to do so. They have done stupid things before.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Highlander

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4269
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2016, 10:10:48 AM »
Interesting draft to say the least, lets hope at least 3 of these guys after Matthews pan out. I can see a lot of package deals coming up in the next week.
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
                                           Navaho Proverb

Offline KadriFan

  • Marlie
  • **
  • Posts: 141
  • TMLfans Rocks!
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #20 on: June 26, 2016, 10:15:43 AM »
Interesting draft to say the least, lets hope at least 3 of these guys after Matthews pan out. I can see a lot of package deals coming up in the next week.

Three would be awesome!!!

Offline Bullfrog

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4090
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #21 on: June 26, 2016, 10:28:54 AM »

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 21718
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #22 on: June 26, 2016, 10:47:00 AM »

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 6475
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2016, 10:54:29 AM »

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?

Offline Bullfrog

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 4090
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2016, 11:04:18 AM »
I feel as though I should have said "uncommon."

Offline Nik the Trik

  • Sittler Status
  • ******
  • Posts: 21718
  • Some Guy On a Message Board
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #25 on: June 26, 2016, 11:06:12 AM »

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?

The '04 Blackhawks had 19.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline Dappleganger

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 1313
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #26 on: June 26, 2016, 02:50:13 PM »

Three would be awesome!!!

And more or less unheard of.

It's not entirely unheard of, you can find cases of a team drafting 3 or so players after the first round who went on to have NHL careers(the Blackhawks in '04, Kings in '07, Bruins in '04, Sens in '09, Leafs in '06).

But it does represent the upper limit. You're also almost certainly talking about one or so marginal contributors or guys who only find their NHL game after multiple spots.

Did those teams have 11 picks?

The '04 Blackhawks had 19.

*17 picks in 9 rounds for the hawks in '04.

Offline Heroic Shrimp

  • Veteran
  • ****
  • Posts: 2664
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2016, 03:54:08 PM »
A nice Scott Wheeler article about Joseph Woll:  Leafs draftee Joseph Woll a student of the game, budding young star
Supersize my Freedom Fries

Offline CarltonTheBear

  • Global Moderator
  • Sittler Status
  • *****
  • Posts: 18670
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #28 on: June 26, 2016, 05:24:23 PM »
Yeah I really like the Woll pick. He was someone that really stood out among the potential goalies to go mid-round.

Offline herman

  • All Star
  • *****
  • Posts: 7809
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #29 on: June 26, 2016, 08:38:47 PM »
More to munch on: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/06/26/what-the-numbers-say-overage-players-vs-first-time-eligibles/

Quote
After Round 1 - Draft Year vs. Overage

Forwards   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   667   92   13.79%
Overage   311   52   16.72%

Defense   Selected   Successful   Success Rate
Draft Year   392   50   12.76%
Overage   204   35   17.16%

Here we see that there is a higher success rate for overage players selected after the first round for both forwards and defenders. Its not an incredible difference, but it definitely seems that looking to overage players after the first round will yield NHL players more often than targeting draft-year players will.

Still a pretty raw look at the overage advantages, if there even is any. The Success criteria is 200 games played.

TMLfans.ca

Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #29 on: June 26, 2016, 08:38:47 PM »