Author Topic: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap  (Read 11296 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #60 on: June 29, 2016, 01:45:47 PM »
Players who have low ceilings aren't in NHL CS's Top 10 European Skaters.

And players who are "low risk, high reward" get drafted in the top 3.

 ::)  Yup, because there are less than four players in every draft who are low risk, high reward.

No, there are dozens of players guaranteed to have good NHL careers in every draft. GMs just pass on them because they're trying to get fired.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online Britishbulldog

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #61 on: June 29, 2016, 01:57:02 PM »
Just to see this all in one place:

2016
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
11Auston Matthews1997 (D-0)C6'2"216 lbs
231Yegor Korshkov1996 (D+2)RW6'3"179 lbs
257Carl Grundstrom1997 (D-0)LW6'0"194 lbs
362Joseph Woll1998 (D-0)G6'3"196 lbs
372J.D. Greenway1998 (D-0)LD6'4"205 lbs
492Adam Brooks1996 (D+2)C5'11"176 lbs
4101Keaton Middleton1998 (D-0)LD6'5"234 lbs
5122Vladimir Bobylev1997 (D+1)LW/C6'2"203 lbs
6152Jonathan "Jack" Walker1996 (D+2)LW5'11"179 lbs
6179Nicolas Mattinen1998 (D-0)RD6'4"220 lbs
7182Nikolai Chebykin1997 (D+1)LW/RW6'3"209 lbs

2015
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
14Mitch Marner1997 (D-0)C/RW5'11"163 lbs
234Travis Dermott1996 (D-0)LD5'11"196 lbs
261Jeremy Bracco1997 (D-0)RW/C5'9"172 lbs
365Andrew Nielsen1996 (D-0)LD6'3"207 lbs
368Martins Dzierkals1997 (D-0)LW/RW5'11"170 lbs
495Jesper Lindgren1997 (D-0)RD6'0"161 lbs
5125Dmytro Timashov1996 (D-0)LW/RW5'10"187 lbs
6155Stephen Desrocher1996 (D+1)LD6'4"198 lbs
7185Nikita Korostelev1997 (D-0)LW/RW6'1"194 lbs

Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.
All The Best
Dan

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #62 on: June 29, 2016, 02:12:56 PM »
Thanks for all the work to post this.  I was looking for something like this.

You're most welcome!

It's not that fun making tables by code*, but it was fun grabbing the data and seeing it all laid out to look for patterns. I considered adding scoring stats, but there isn't much valid comparison there (and I'd go blind keeping the table tags sorted out).

* yes, I could have used Excel and just posted a screenshot, but that'd be tedious to edit in the event of necessary corrections.

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #63 on: June 29, 2016, 02:21:11 PM »
When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought


And then I saw his size and age and thought:


This must be a:


With more info now:

Offline TBLeafer

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #64 on: June 30, 2016, 08:37:53 AM »
When I heard we picked Korshkov, I admit I thought


And then I saw his size and age and thought:


This must be a:


With more info now:


Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #65 on: June 30, 2016, 09:29:45 AM »
Pretty much.  Great job on that 2015/16 draft table too!

I thought this for pretty much every pick we made this year. Intrigue rising!
Thanks! Feel free to do whatever you want with it.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #66 on: June 30, 2016, 10:16:03 AM »
Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.
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Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #67 on: June 30, 2016, 10:28:25 AM »
Perhaps this is pure speculation but I really feel outside of skill and size the Leafs are looking for the most important intangible of grit and determination, the real fire in the belly stuff.  I guess we could say that about most of the guys available in the draft would have this to certain degrees but perhaps the Leaf picks where scouted with this intangible in mind. One would hope so.

They should do gut checks and take tummy temps at the combines.

I think they scouted for the following:
- Skill projected potential
- Character: do they exhibit self-improvement, coachability, etc.?
- Development curve momentum: which part of the curve are they on? which direction are they headed? how quickly are they moving through that curve?

In addition, for goalies:
- Size
- Mobility/athleticism

A lot of the intangibles you mentioned, Highlander, are going to be captured in their character assessments. Are they good at the game because they love it and work at it? or are they just physically gifted and play it to make hay? I would call this the 'art' side of scouting which can't be done just by looking at the numbers.

Character can augment or be a detriment to the skills development. Ultimately, skills are what you draft for, and character determines the longevity and growth of how those skills project.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #68 on: July 01, 2016, 09:28:41 AM »
better way to put it Herman as Character Assesment: Does this guy do the extra lap around the rink, 10 more pushups, does he always on every shift try to beat the other guy to the puck, never let up, always working at 100% and driving for more, kind of stuff.
As mentioned 99% of those drafted probably were the most competative guy on their bantam and midget teams.

I remember with they drafted Komorav and they said he was all grit and sandpaper with some scoring touch, they compared him to Kenny Linsman, "The Rat"… took him a while to get over the pond but that assesment was right on. Komorav is our Kenny The Rat.  LOL
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Online WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #69 on: July 02, 2016, 03:55:17 PM »
This reddit thread followed a decent article about the value of Carl Grundstrom, I thought it had some good arguments.

https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/4qx6z0/achariya_is_carl_grundstr%C3%B6m_better_than_57th/

They talk about the idea that the Leafs drafted role players versus drafting BPA.

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #70 on: July 02, 2016, 06:28:28 PM »
They've certainly given us a lot to discuss. A forward-thinking organization by definition should go against the grain. Last year was easier to read because this year looks like Burke-redux on the surface.

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #71 on: July 04, 2016, 10:42:39 AM »
McKeen's Draft Review: Toronto
http://www.mckeenshockey.com/nhl-blog/nhl-draft-review-grades-toronto-maple-leafs/

Quote
Grade:
A+: Landing the prospect considered by many to be the best in the draft, and eight in total who were in McKeen’s rankings gives the Leafs the top grade in this draft. This should one day be looked back on as the pivotal weekend in Toronto’s rebuilding process.

The grade is largely meaningless as well, thanks to Auston Matthews' value overshadowing anything that happened after.

Like all Draft-day scouting reports, it is a bit too effusive, but take a look at the draft list table that compares the pick slot vs McKeen's projected ranking. We were definitely working off a non-traditional book.

Online herman

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #72 on: July 04, 2016, 04:24:48 PM »
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2016/07/04/toronto-maple-leaf-fans-got-bloo-bloo-blue/

and here's a good look at that non-traditional book.

Quote
Unsurprising Surprise #3: Oh my God, the Bloo Bloo I heard this summer around the Leafs taking these over-age kids.

Now, it wasn’t like people had a great deal of analytical or empirical evidence to back up their preference for picking 18 year olds, as it turns out.

In fact, we laid out a few times that European kids and European leagues aren’t wired to produce “peak product” at that age. Which means that you’re likely to find some Euopean gems turning up after age 18.

Now, guess who else understood that, and before us?

Right. Leaf super-scout Thommie Bergman.

Which is how he managed to gather such an extraordinary list of talent for the Leafs as over-agers, such as: Nik Kulemin, Leo Komarov, Anton Stralman, Carl Gunnarsson and Viktor Stalberg, and more recently Rinat Valiev and Viktor Loov. Plus Nikita Soshnikov and Nikita Zaitsev, of course, who were never drafted at all. And before that, the older names, such as Danny Markov, Fredrik Modin, Sergey Berezin, Nikolai Borschevsky and Boris Mironov.

Oh wait, guess who else understood that European talent often doesn’t show itself until after the age of 18?

I’ll bet you can guess. Let’s play, “What do the following names have in common?”

  • Nik Lidstrom
  • Sergei Fedorov
  • Vladimir Konstantinov
  • Pavel Datsyuk
  • Tomas Holmstrom
  • Johan Franzen
  • Nik Kronwall
  • Gustav Nyquist
  • Alexey Marchenko [Detroit rookie defenceman]
  • Mattias Janmark [15 goals as a rookie for Dallas this year]
That’s right, folks. The majority of Detroit’s amazing European talent haul has come from over-age picks. Year over year, they quietly pick the talent from Europe’s overagers.

Only now Shanny and the Leafs have joined in.

Offline Highlander

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #73 on: July 04, 2016, 05:22:19 PM »
I think outside of Matthews we may see 3 others on the Leafs one day and that is not a bad draft at all.
"We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children"
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Online Bullfrog

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2016, 09:44:42 AM »
I hope you're right, but I think that might be a tad optimistic. It's happened before, of course, but I don't have high hopes. Which is fine, because it'd be ok if Matthews alone makes it.

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Re: Maple Leafs 2016 Draft Recap
« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2016, 09:44:42 AM »