Author Topic: Jays Roster Discussion  (Read 31638 times)

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Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #540 on: September 30, 2017, 09:33:48 PM »
Jays owe it to their fans to try hard to resign him.

I'm a Jays fan and if Guerrero is ready to take over mid-season next year or 2019 I'd actually rather they not sign a 32 year old Donaldson to a 20+ million dollar multi-year deal. Especially if there are options to put that money into the rotation.
I agree. They had better get a king's ransom for Donaldson though. At least four high end prospects.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #541 on: October 01, 2017, 05:40:13 AM »
I agree. They had better get a king's ransom for Donaldson though. At least four high end prospects.

So I did some thinking about this, to try and come up with a player who was similar in value to Donaldson who got dealt so as to gauge what he might fetch in a trade. I don't know that I came up with anything perfect but three deals came to mind that maybe give us a framework.

The first one was Chris Sale, probably because it's the most recent. Sale was a legit, #1 ace kind of guy traded in his prime and the White Sox got a pretty hefty return. They got one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball(Moncada), another top 100 guy(Michael Kopech) and then two lesser prospects.

That's not a great comp though. Sale is younger, has more team control and isn't actually as valuable on the field as Donaldson's been(19.5 bwar in his three best pre-trade years to Donaldson's 24.0). I also think teams tend to overpay for pitching.

So then I thought about Miguel Cabrera. That's a little more complicated though for a few reasons. Cabrera was significantly younger(25 to 31), Cabrera's value was artificially lower because he was playing out of position and the deal wasn't just for Cabrera but also had some salary throw-ins.  Anyways, the structure's not all that different. Cabrera went for a consensus top 10 prospect(Cameron Maybin), a consensus top 20 prospect(Andrew Miller) and then a couple other guys who could generously be called B or B- prospects. But again, that was a weirder, bigger trade.

So then I thought, maybe the best comp for Donaldson is Donaldson? True, Donaldson didn't have an MVP and the eye-popping stats when Oakland traded him but his value in his two best Oakland years(15 bwar) wasn't much lower than his two best Jays years(16.3 bWAR).

Anyways, when the Jays traded for Donaldson then they maybe got something closer to your idea of four high value guys although they didn't get the top end talent Chicago or the Marlins did in their deals. The Jays traded a top 100 guy in Barreto, a fringe-y top 100 guy in Nolin, a good prospect in Graveman and then whatever we want to call Brett Lawrie(a good ball player but someone who'd stalled a little and struggled with injuries).

So there's no great comps. My guess though, and this is just a guess, is that if you trade Donaldson you'll probably get something similar to what Sale and Cabrera got but with maybe less high end value. So maybe a top 20 prospect, another top 100ish guy and then a B- sort of guy.
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Offline L K

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #542 on: October 01, 2017, 08:30:40 AM »
I agree. They had better get a king's ransom for Donaldson though. At least four high end prospects.

So I did some thinking about this, to try and come up with a player who was similar in value to Donaldson who got dealt so as to gauge what he might fetch in a trade. I don't know that I came up with anything perfect but three deals came to mind that maybe give us a framework.

The first one was Chris Sale, probably because it's the most recent. Sale was a legit, #1 ace kind of guy traded in his prime and the White Sox got a pretty hefty return. They got one of the consensus top 10 prospects in baseball(Moncada), another top 100 guy(Michael Kopech) and then two lesser prospects.

That's not a great comp though. Sale is younger, has more team control and isn't actually as valuable on the field as Donaldson's been(19.5 bwar in his three best pre-trade years to Donaldson's 24.0). I also think teams tend to overpay for pitching.

So then I thought about Miguel Cabrera. That's a little more complicated though for a few reasons. Cabrera was significantly younger(25 to 31), Cabrera's value was artificially lower because he was playing out of position and the deal wasn't just for Cabrera but also had some salary throw-ins.  Anyways, the structure's not all that different. Cabrera went for a consensus top 10 prospect(Cameron Maybin), a consensus top 20 prospect(Andrew Miller) and then a couple other guys who could generously be called B or B- prospects. But again, that was a weirder, bigger trade.

So then I thought, maybe the best comp for Donaldson is Donaldson? True, Donaldson didn't have an MVP and the eye-popping stats when Oakland traded him but his value in his two best Oakland years(15 bwar) wasn't much lower than his two best Jays years(16.3 bWAR).

Anyways, when the Jays traded for Donaldson then they maybe got something closer to your idea of four high value guys although they didn't get the top end talent Chicago or the Marlins did in their deals. The Jays traded a top 100 guy in Barreto, a fringe-y top 100 guy in Nolin, a good prospect in Graveman and then whatever we want to call Brett Lawrie(a good ball player but someone who'd stalled a little and struggled with injuries).

So there's no great comps. My guess though, and this is just a guess, is that if you trade Donaldson you'll probably get something similar to what Sale and Cabrera got but with maybe less high end value. So maybe a top 20 prospect, another top 100ish guy and then a B- sort of guy.

I think you have to look at it.  I don't think there is a reasonable package that gets Donaldson signed before the offseason next year.  You trade Donaldson and quite frankly could hope that he ends up going to free agency and considers returning as a free agent if you want him back that badly.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #543 on: October 01, 2017, 12:01:39 PM »
Well, Donaldson is definitely going to be the player to watch during the off season.  Everything else for the Jays is going to be kind of "meh".  They need a starting pitcher, an outfielder, and maybe a utility player.  I don't expect them to make a flashy move, particularly if they're not signing Donaldson to an extension.  I really think the Jays need to take the opportunity to trade Donaldson for multiple prospects and do a mini rebuild.  Who knows, they might still be able to compete for a wild card slot next season that way, and then in 2019 they will hopefully be stacked with young controllable talent.  For the Jays to actually go for it next season they would have to commit close to $100M/year on multiple high end free agents.  I really don't think they would ever go that route.  I would be shocked.  The risk management runs with any type of rebuild is that Rogers Centre will be a ghost town.  We will see what happens.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #544 on: October 01, 2017, 05:57:16 PM »
Wow, it's a real shocker, but Donaldson actually *wants* to remain a Blue Jay:

http://slam.canoe.com/Slam/Baseball/MLB/Toronto/2017/10/01/22756040.html

This is the first time I have ever heard him actually say that.  It's probably posturing to try to get himself a better contract.  If he really likes it here so much he would have said something about it long ago.

We'll see what happens.  There are pros and cons to either option (signing him or trading him).  Trading him is risky in that you will probably never get a prospect in return that would develop into any type of comparable player.  However it saves a lot of money and it gives the Jays more options seeing as they have guys like Guerrero coming up in their system.  I would be shocked to see management commit long term to a player at this point.  The Jays' window will close after 2018.  I think they are going to keep Donaldson until at least the midpoint of the season to see where they are at in the standings.  If they are below .500 I think they will move him.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #545 on: October 01, 2017, 07:31:51 PM »

So I did a little digging into Bautista's splits to see if there's any evidence at all that he could still be a productive hitter in a reduced role. I came away with a few things:

1) He was significantly better in the first half(.749 OPS) vs the second half(.577). That does at least hint at an older player who wore down over the course of the season.

2) He hit significantly better at night (.734) than he did in day games(.563)

3) It's a very small sample size but he hit well as a DH(.869)

4) He hit best when hitting 3rd in the lineup(.766)

So my guess is that on a one year deal, on a team with a good lineup, he'd probably be ok as a utility LF/1B/DH being used in the middle of the lineup. I don't think he can play every day though.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #546 on: October 02, 2017, 03:27:11 AM »
Re: Bautista

His xwOBA (on-base-weighted average) described as a stat that measures a hitter's "launch angle and exit velocity" (instead of the boxscore stat results), - - - and one in which many GMs including the Jays' own Ross Atkins, believe it's a more accurate stat measurement - - show Bautista's decline.


(via theathletic)
Per breaking balls:


Per fastballs:
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 03:42:37 AM by hockeyfan1 »

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #547 on: October 02, 2017, 07:33:13 AM »

Josh H. Christmas, stop posting the Athletic's stuff here.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #548 on: October 02, 2017, 07:52:36 AM »
Alright, for Just' N Sake, I shall.

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #549 on: October 02, 2017, 08:03:18 AM »




What are these showing?  Basically Bautista's swings & misses from 2015 (first heatmap photo) to 2017 (last heatmap photo).
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 08:12:25 AM by hockeyfan1 »

Offline Arn

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #550 on: October 02, 2017, 10:57:16 AM »
11 minutes  ;D



(I Know this is a publicly available tweet, but still, amusing)
I Saw Jay McClement Score.

Offline Deebo

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #551 on: October 02, 2017, 06:14:16 PM »
Talk from the Yankee TV announcers  (I had to watch the YES feed ugh) that Donaldson was potentially being traded to Cardinals over the winter.

It's not the worst idea in the world if, and this are two big ifs, you think Vlad Guerrero is a 3B long-term and you think he'll be ready sooner rather than later.

From what I've heard, which is mostly hearsay, we shouldn't count on him ability to play 3B at the major league level.

Also, if he does end up at 3B in a few years, JD might be able to take over SS from after Tulo's contract expires.

Or if JD's defense regresses, he could move to 1st/DH.

There could be ways to have both Vlad and JD in the lineup, which could be very good especially if Bichette's bat plays at this level too.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #552 on: October 03, 2017, 09:05:50 PM »
From what I've heard, which is mostly hearsay, we shouldn't count on him ability to play 3B at the major league level.

Also, if he does end up at 3B in a few years, JD might be able to take over SS from after Tulo's contract expires.

Or if JD's defense regresses, he could move to 1st/DH.

There could be ways to have both Vlad and JD in the lineup, which could be very good especially if Bichette's bat plays at this level too.

Outside of being very skeptical that a 34 year old Donaldson would handle a move to SS well, I don't disagree with anything here. The Jays certainly don't have to trade Donaldson and keeping him around would be good strictly in terms of how good a ball player he is.

But the question then becomes can you sign him to the reported 5 year/150 million deal that's rumoured to be the starting point? Does that significantly hinder your ability to add elsewhere?

Maybe more to the point, if you sign that deal and benefit from the first few years of it how moveable is it if you eventually think you need to reset?
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
-Mark Twain

Offline disco

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #553 on: October 04, 2017, 05:31:50 AM »
"I'm here for (6) more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

Offline hockeyfan1

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Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #554 on: October 05, 2017, 08:20:42 AM »
That definitely has to rank alongside Joe Carter's  World Series winning home run.

Vintage Jose.  Encapsulated everything the haters 'hated' him for and the fans 'loved' him for. 

Exactly right...never forget.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 08:24:34 AM by hockeyfan1 »

TMLfans.ca

Re: Jays Roster Discussion
« Reply #554 on: October 05, 2017, 08:20:42 AM »