Author Topic: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery  (Read 19773 times)

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Offline McGarnagle

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2016, 09:10:51 PM »
I didn't know that. But I'm secure enough in my ignorance to admit it.

Online Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #16 on: April 12, 2016, 09:28:12 PM »
It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.


Who didn't know that...?

You?

I figured it has been common knowledge for at least the past year.

What I didn't know was that they rejigger the odds the 2nd & 3rd go-rounds.  I thought they just kept pulling balls out of the basket based on the round 1 odds.

Online herman

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2016, 10:18:19 PM »
The odds adjust by virtue of there being one less team in the pool per lottery. Each team's ball count stays the same, but the total number of balls is reduced as the lottery winner's balls are removed.

Offline Heroic Shrimp

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2016, 10:24:19 PM »
I didn't know that. But I'm secure enough in my ignorance to admit it.

I guess I was wrong about it, sorry.

As an aside, for the past year, it's really got under my skin every time I've heard and read people talking about the Leafs or any team for that matter getting or hoping for "a lottery pick", which generally used to mean finishing bottom 5 and having a chance at the #1 overall pick.  With the present lottery system, it's now a virtually meaningless term, as any non-playoff team has "a lottery pick", and in fact has 3 of them for shots at picks #1, #2 and #3.  It's just a sliding scale of odds of winning those picks in the multiple lotteries.
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Offline Heroic Shrimp

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #19 on: April 12, 2016, 10:27:51 PM »
Supersize my Freedom Fries

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #20 on: April 12, 2016, 10:52:11 PM »
The odds adjust by virtue of there being one less team in the pool per lottery. Each team's ball count stays the same, but the total number of balls is reduced as the lottery winner's balls are removed.

OK, thanks for that herman, and thanks HS for the chart.  I thought there was some other kind of weighting going on.

Offline Jolly good show chaps

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #21 on: April 13, 2016, 02:17:38 AM »
The odds adjust by virtue of there being one less team in the pool per lottery. Each team's ball count stays the same, but the total number of balls is reduced as the lottery winner's balls are removed.

So really this lottery is just a load of balls.

Online herman

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #22 on: April 13, 2016, 07:07:37 AM »
The odds adjust by virtue of there being one less team in the pool per lottery. Each team's ball count stays the same, but the total number of balls is reduced as the lottery winner's balls are removed.

OK, thanks for that herman, and thanks HS for the chart.  I thought there was some other kind of weighting going on.

My explanation is an oversimplification of the process. The NHL doesn't use balls with team logos on them, seeded in inverse proportion to their final point standings -- that would make it rather easy to cheat by secretly adding or removing balls.

Instead, they have 14 balls numbered 1-14. Each team is assigned a list of 4# combinations (e.g. 1-3-9-14); the 30th place team has the most Bingo cards to work with, so to speak (~200 combinations, out of a total 1001). The ball tumbler spits out 1 ball every ten seconds until 4 balls are picked. In the next round of the lottery, the lottery winner's proportion of combinations is removed, so everyone else's is adjusted accordingly to account for the new pool size. I don't know the exact procedure for the adjustment, but I'd guess they'd redistribute new combinations per team (it's all software anyway).

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #23 on: April 13, 2016, 07:46:40 AM »
Wouldn't they just simply remove all the combinations from the winning team(s)? That's why the 29th place team has only a 13.5% chance in the first round, but then up to 20% or so in the second round (if the 30th place wins the first).

Online herman

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #24 on: April 13, 2016, 07:54:22 AM »
Wouldn't they just simply remove all the combinations from the winning team(s)? That's why the 29th place team has only a 13.5% chance in the first round, but then up to 20% or so in the second round (if the 30th place wins the first).

That's kind of what I'd expect, but then you get increasing chances to draw one of the removed numbers. So is it faster to draw again (40 seconds) or spit out new combos per team totalling their new probability (theoretically 1-3 seconds)? I don't know.

Offline Boston Leaf

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #25 on: April 13, 2016, 08:24:00 AM »
Sorry if this was answered but didn't see it. So in round two. do the Leafs get the first pick in round 2? Or do they go to where they landed in lottery. Ie. if we pick 4th do we then pick 34th?

Offline Bullfrog

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #26 on: April 13, 2016, 08:35:39 AM »
Only the first round is affected by the lottery. So if the Edmonton wins the lottery, they pick 1st overall, but their 2nd and 3rd round picks remain at 32 and 62.

If Toronto drops all the way to 4th, they still retain 31st and 61st, etc.

Online herman

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #27 on: April 13, 2016, 08:41:29 AM »
Sorry if this was answered but didn't see it. So in round two. do the Leafs get the first pick in round 2? Or do they go to where they landed in lottery. Ie. if we pick 4th do we then pick 34th?

Rounds after the first are not subject to the lottery results, and go by the expected order based on regular season points/playoff results.

Online bustaheims

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #28 on: April 13, 2016, 09:22:12 AM »
Okay, so, using the charts, and what I remember from one of the math classes I took in high school, best case scenario puts the odds of the Leafs winning one of the lotteries at ~55%, while worst case has them at ~49%. Not terrible odds, all things considered.
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Offline Boston Leaf

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2016, 09:25:15 AM »
Sorry if this was answered but didn't see it. So in round two. do the Leafs get the first pick in round 2? Or do they go to where they landed in lottery. Ie. if we pick 4th do we then pick 34th?

Rounds after the first are not subject to the lottery results, and go by the expected order based on regular season points/playoff results.

Ok great thanks

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Re: 2016 NHL Draft Lottery
« Reply #29 on: April 13, 2016, 09:25:15 AM »