Potential Expansion Draft Rules

[CarltonTheBear]

It does mean that Brown and Leipsic would have to be protected, though - but, Horton will almost certainly be willing to waive his NMC.

I don't think that was ever really in doubt, but yeah they'd need protection. Leipsic I wouldn't really care about. Brown's play this season will determine whether he's worth protecting or not.

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm struggling to name 7 Leafs forwards who would even deserve protection...

Kadri, JVR, Komarov... and I'm stuck. Two of Holland, Lupul, and Bozak would have to be exposed to meet the GP requirement. So protecting someone like Brown and even Leipsic shouldn't be a problem.

[Coco-puffs]

Chris Johnson had an update on the expansion draft rules last week, doesn't seem like it was posted here yet: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/nhl-teams-receiving-information-potential-expansion-draft/

A minimum of two forwards and one defenceman must be exposed who have played 40 games the previous season, or a total of 70 over the previous two.

There is also a requirement that the 40/70 players are under contract for the first expansion season.

...

Players holding no-movement clauses – including those modified by limited no-trades, such as Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Marc-Andre Fleury – count against the protection limit, provided that those contracts and clauses extend through the 2017-18 season.

However, players with no-movement clauses on deals that expire June 30, 2017 like Calgary Flames defenceman Dennis Wideman or Minnesota Wild forward Thomas Vanek wouldn't have to be protected for a draft that is likely to be held a week or two beforehand.

Teams will also be permitted to ask players to waive their no-movement clauses for inclusion in the expansion draft.

...

Players with two years of professional experience or less will be exempt from the process. Determining who that covers is based on the definition included in the collective bargaining agreement – meaning that 10 games played in the NHL at age 18 or 19 counts as a season, as does any American Hockey League or NHL season for players older than that.

Earlier it was said that Nylander would have to be protected, but this reading of the rule would suggest that he'll be exempt. It's basically the same way they decide if a contract slides or not. Nylander's first season in the AHL as a 19-year old wouldn't count.

Let's hope!  It seemed that Bill Daly's comment to Darren Dreger contradicts that, but in both cases (his comments, and the above) the details are not finalized.  I think it makes sense for it to match the ELC rules for players.  If you are still on your ELC entering the 2017-2018 season, you are exempt.  Furthermore, if you were a college or european player, two or less seasons also makes you exempt (ie Hyman, Soshnikov, Zaitsev).  That would be the best case scenario for the Leafs.

[CarltonTheBear]

Horton will almost certainly be willing to waive his NMC.

I didn't realize this until now but Horton's NMC actually expires at the end of the 16/17 season, and turns into a limited NTC after that. So we can expose him no problem.

[bustaheims]

I'm struggling to name 7 Leafs forwards who would even deserve protection...

Kadri, JVR, Komarov... and I'm stuck. Two of Holland, Lupul, and Bozak would have to be exposed to meet the GP requirement. So protecting someone like Brown and even Leipsic shouldn't be a problem.

Yeah. As things stand now, there's room. It's more interesting on D - as things stand now, the protected D are likely Rielly, Gardiner, and Carrick. Corrado, Marincin, and some older prospects would be exposed. Likely where the Leafs will lose a man. Also, may impact any moves made to add a defenceman.

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah. As things stand now, there's room. It's more interesting on D - as things stand now, the protected D are likely Rielly, Gardiner, and Carrick. Corrado, Marincin, and some older prospects would be exposed. Likely where the Leafs will lose a man. Also, may impact any moves made to add a defenceman.

I'd probably protect Marincin over Carrick, although there's still a season of play to decide that. Or we could go the 2nd route and protect 4 defencemen. It's only 8 skaters + a goalie if you do that but that could still work.

Protect Kadri, JVR, Komarov, Brown, Rielly, Gardiner, Marincin, Carrick, Bernier. Horton, Lupul, and Bozak would be exposed on forward. Holland and Corrado don't currently have contracts for then but assuming they do they would help get to the GP requirement.

[bustaheims]

I didn't realize this until now but Horton's NMC actually expires at the end of the 16/17 season, and turns into a limited NTC after that. So we can expose him no problem.

Even better.

[bustaheims]

I'd probably protect Marincin over Carrick, although there's still a season of play to decide that. Or we could go the 2nd route and protect 4 defencemen. It's only 8 skaters + a goalie if you do that but that could still work. Protect Kadri, JVR, Komarov, Brown, Rielly, Gardiner, Marincin, Carrick, Bernier.

Unless Bernier earns a new contract, he won't have to be protected. The Leafs probably don't have a goalie in the system right now they'll feel the need to protect.

[herman]

I'm struggling to name 7 Leafs forwards who would even deserve protection...

Kadri, JVR, Komarov... and I'm stuck. Two of Holland, Lupul, and Bozak would have to be exposed to meet the GP requirement. So protecting someone like Brown and even Leipsic shouldn't be a problem.

Yeah. As things stand now, there's room. It's more interesting on D - as things stand now, the protected D are likely Rielly, Gardiner, and Carrick. Corrado, Marincin, and some older prospects would be exposed. Likely where the Leafs will lose a man. Also, may impact any moves made to add a defenceman.

Hence this season being the perfect time to not do anything drastic and play out what we have to see what we really have.

I'd still trade JvR but maybe for a high pick and prospect, rather than an established player.

[CarltonTheBear]

Unless Bernier earns a new contract, he won't have to be protected. The Leafs probably don't have a goalie in the system right now they'll feel the need to protect.

Sure, but whether a goalie is protected or not doesn't make a difference to the rest, so I just threw him in there as a placeholder at least.

[bustaheims]

Unless Bernier earns a new contract, he won't have to be protected. The Leafs probably don't have a goalie in the system right now they'll feel the need to protect.

Sure, but whether a goalie is protected or not doesn't make a difference to the rest, so I just threw him in there as a placeholder at least.

Fair enough.

[bustaheims]

Hence this season being the perfect time to not do anything drastic and play out what we have to see what we really have.

That's what I was thinking, too. Unless a crystal clear, must make this move kind of deal comes along, the team should stay patient, and pick up futures/players that are exempt from the expansion draft.

[herman]

Hence this season being the perfect time to not do anything drastic and play out what we have to see what we really have.

That's what I was thinking, too. Unless a crystal clear, must make this move kind of deal comes along, the team should stay patient, and pick up futures/players that are exempt from the expansion draft.

And have a full wallet and contract space open to take advantage of anything tasty that might shake free because another team did not plan ahead properly.

[Coco-puffs]

Based on my review of the current roster, I don't think we have a concern of losing someone we care a heck of a lot about.

However, we may have a problem with the 40/70 rule (two forwards and one defenseman must be exposed that played either 40 NHL games in 2016-2017 or 70 NHL games between the previous two seasons... and that player must be under contract for 2017-2018).

As of right now I only see a few forwards we have under contract who could fullfil that requirement (assuming we want to protect Kadri, JvR, Komarov, and Brown, plus Stamkos should he sign here):

Lupul - but he needs to play in 24 games this season and he needs to waive his NTC
Bozak - but I'd much rather trade him- I think he can net a 2nd round pick

The following players aren't under contract in '17-'18, so signing them to an extension just to expose them might be the best course of action:

Laich 
Froese (needs 14 gp to qualify for 70 in 2 as well)
Michalek (needs 25 gp to qualify for 70 in 2 as well)
Greening (needs 39 gp to qualify for 70 in 2 as well)
Holland (assuming we keep him... might as well sign him to a 2 year deal now)

I don't see Leipsic playing enough NHL games to qualify- and he'd need a contract extension to boot.

On defense:

Protect:  Rielly, Gardiner
Expires, so not eligible (unless we sign him to an extension):  Hunwick

I see us most likely protecting Carrick, who is an RFA at the end of next season- so even if we choose not to protect him, we need him extended to qualify

That means, between Marincin, Corrado, and Harrington, who are all RFA's this offseason, at least one of them needs to be under contract for '17-'18 and play the required number of NHL games this upcoming season.  (Marincin needs 5 NHL games to hit 70 in 2, Corrado needs 31 NHL games to hit 70 in 2, and Harrington would need 40 NHL games this season)

Anyways, I bring this up because there will be a lot of consideration management needs to do with their assets.  Selling off players at the deadline might make it tougher to reach this requirement.  They may need to make trades just to acquire players to meet the requirement.  It will be an interesting to see what juggling happens in preparation for the expansion draft (and not just for the Leafs).

[CarltonTheBear]

GeneralFanager just released a pretty neat feature, their mock expansion draft tool: http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/expansion

Obviously, with it being so far away and with so many potential players not having contracts, it's not perfect. But still seems like a fun tool to play around with.