Author Topic: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread  (Read 28252 times)

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Offline Bill_Berg

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #15 on: January 18, 2016, 03:13:39 PM »
Available, but not necessarily "for sale"
Komarov
Leivo
Phaneuf
Hunwick
Winnik
Bozak
Holland
Marincin
Corrado
Bernier
Lupul

I've said it before on various pieces here but I just can't understand why the Leafs wouldn't be trying to sell most of these guys. Especially the ones with real term/cap hit left or the ones like Hunwick who are in roles they almost certainly won't be going forward.

Edit: Which isn't to say you'd take any offer(although getting Lupul off the books would be pretty great in and of itself) but I figure that at least you're soliciting offers.

I tend to agree. It feels like there should be three categories: get this guy off the team (for contract reasons or his value will never be higher), try to get the best return for, and blow my socks off and I'll trade him. All of these guys would be that middle category, if not the get this guy off the team category.

Online L K

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #16 on: January 18, 2016, 03:15:41 PM »
Available, but not necessarily "for sale"
Komarov
Leivo
Phaneuf
Hunwick
Winnik
Bozak
Holland
Marincin
Corrado
Bernier
Lupul

I've said it before on various pieces here but I just can't understand why the Leafs wouldn't be trying to sell most of these guys. Especially the ones with real term/cap hit left or the ones like Hunwick who are in roles they almost certainly won't be going forward.

Edit: Which isn't to say you'd take any offer(although getting Lupul off the books would be pretty great in and of itself) but I figure that at least you're soliciting offers.

I would like to see them move out at least 1 (Polak) if not two defenseman.  I liked the job Harrington was doing at the start of the year and he got bumped because of waiver eligibility.  I also wouldn't mind seeing Corrado get an extended look down the stretch where he plays regularly and not getting 8-10 minutes once every 10 games.

Offline Peter D.

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #17 on: January 18, 2016, 03:19:53 PM »
Available, but not necessarily "for sale"
Komarov
Leivo
Phaneuf
Hunwick
Winnik
Bozak
Holland
Marincin
Corrado
Bernier
Lupul

I'd classify only Komarov, Bozak and Phaneuf (to a lesser extent) in this category.  Don't mind if they are kept around, but if the right offer comes along, see ya. 

The rest I'd put in the "sale" bin.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #18 on: January 18, 2016, 03:47:18 PM »
To me, it's more that the urgency isn't there to get a deal done by the deadline. With most of these guys, their value isn't going to change all that dramatically between now and the draft. I figure, with these guys, the team has an internal minimum price that other teams will have to be approaching with their offers before the Leafs get serious on negotiations.

See, I disagree a little. Someone like Hunwick, for instance, if I'm trying to trade him at the draft then what informs the negotiations isn't just Hunwick's value, it's Hunwick's value vs. the value of the guys a team could sign in a couple weeks as UFAs. If I'm a team in need of a 5th or 6th defenseman, am I more likely to trade a 2nd rounder or decent prospect for Hunwick or am I going to keep those assets and try to do what the Leafs did and find a guy to fit that role at a bargain price?

I know what I'd choose.
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Online bustaheims

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #19 on: January 18, 2016, 04:06:34 PM »
See, I disagree a little. Someone like Hunwick, for instance, if I'm trying to trade him at the draft then what informs the negotiations isn't just Hunwick's value, it's Hunwick's value vs. the value of the guys a team could sign in a couple weeks as UFAs. If I'm a team in need of a 5th or 6th defenseman, am I more likely to trade a 2nd rounder or decent prospect for Hunwick or am I going to keep those assets and try to do what the Leafs did and find a guy to fit that role at a bargain price?

I know what I'd choose.

In the case of Hunwick and Winnik, sure. For the rest? There's not going to be much in the UFA market that will be cheaper, as reliable, etc. I'm also not sure Winnik's value at this deadline is that much higher than it would be at next year's. He's not the kind of guy teams are looking to get a full season out of. Same with Hunwick - though, if he's not being used in a similar role next year, that could be an issue.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #20 on: January 18, 2016, 04:33:29 PM »
Same with Hunwick - though, if he's not being used in a similar role next year, that could be an issue.

I think that applies to quite a few guys is all. If we figure that next year the Leafs will add Nylander and Marner, at least, how likely is it that Holland gets 2 minutes of PP time a night? Or that Bozak is the team's 2nd line center?

Like you say, there's no urgency I suppose but I'd still be working the phones trying to take advantage of the deadline mindset that does inflate values, especially in a year where so many teams are in the hunt for those last few spots.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online bustaheims

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #21 on: January 18, 2016, 04:40:26 PM »
I think that applies to quite a few guys is all. If we figure that next year the Leafs will add Nylander and Marner, at least, how likely is it that Holland gets 2 minutes of PP time a night? Or that Bozak is the team's 2nd line center?

Well, in the case of those 2 specifically, I don't think Holland has a ton of trade value any way, and I don't think Bozak's value changes much between now and the draft, as the UFA crop at centre is extremely weak after Stamkos and Staal. Komarov would be the other guy on that list I'd be concerned about, but I'm not sure there'll be much change in his usage next season - he'll probably still be a top 6 winger, with PK and PP time. His production may drop a little, but it'll still probably be good enough that it won't have much impact, and that's assuming the Leafs don't move him at the draft. I don't think his value changes all the much between now and then, either.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2016, 05:03:24 PM »
Well, in the case of those 2 specifically, I don't think Holland has a ton of trade value any way, and I don't think Bozak's value changes much between now and the draft, as the UFA crop at centre is extremely weak after Stamkos and Staal. Komarov would be the other guy on that list I'd be concerned about, but I'm not sure there'll be much change in his usage next season - he'll probably still be a top 6 winger, with PK and PP time. His production may drop a little, but it'll still probably be good enough that it won't have much impact, and that's assuming the Leafs don't move him at the draft. I don't think his value changes all the much between now and then, either.

The UFA market is only one market force though. Another, probably a more significant one, is that there are simply more teams willing to make trades where they shake things up. Regardless of an ability to actually contend, there's no signal of surrender if you trade a top 9 forward for prospects at the draft the way there is at the deadline and after a season ends and 29 teams don't win the Stanley Cup, I think a lot more teams are looking to make lateral moves as well. Teams look to cut cap obligations and begin to look forward at who internally might be able to fill a role next season.

If you look at the trades made last off-season I think what you see are some instances of very good players getting moved for futures(Dougie Hamilton, Phil Kessel, Ryan O'Reilly) and you see sort of mid-tier guys being moved laterally or for cap-friendly returns(TJ Oshie, Carl Hagelin, Patrick Sharp). What you don't see much of is mid-tier guys getting moved for good picks/prospects the way you can at the deadline.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2016, 09:19:43 AM »
I'm trying to figure out some of the most likely potential trading partners and Carolina's name popped up. They're just 2 points out of a playoff spot, but they've got 4 teams separating them and 8th place. They've missed the playoffs for 6 straight seasons, so there's probably a bit of pressure now to get in seeing how close they are. They have the 4th best possession numbers in the league, but are 24th in GF and 21st in GA.

So goaltending was the first thing I thought of. Eddie Lack has a .891 Sv% and Ward is at .905. Ward's a UFA and it doesn't sound like he's going to be sticking around, so maybe something like Reimer for Ward, a 2nd rounder, and some type of conditional pick based on if Reimer re-signs with them? We'll likely need another goalie too as I doubt the Leafs will want to go with Bernier and Sparks next season, so Ward could come back on a 1-year deal if he plays alright.

I could also see them having legit interest in Parenteau, but I'm not sure how much they'd want to spend on a scoring winger. Goaltending seems like a bigger need they would have to address one way or another.

Online bustaheims

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #24 on: January 19, 2016, 09:57:05 AM »
Reimer to Carolina does make a ton of sense. The Canes would be a very good team if they were getting quality goaltending.

Maybe Parenteau and Reimer for Ward, their 1st (lottery protected, I guess - maybe just top 5-10 protected), and a 3rd/equivalent prospect?
« Last Edit: January 19, 2016, 10:00:46 AM by bustaheims »
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Frank E

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #25 on: January 19, 2016, 10:07:02 AM »
Well, we know Edmonton is looking for a good defenseman.

I keep thinking that there's a trade in there somewhere.  I think Chiarelli is going to chase a playoff spot.

Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #26 on: January 19, 2016, 10:07:31 AM »
Reimer to Carolina does make a ton of sense. The Canes would be a very good team if they were getting quality goaltending.

Maybe Parenteau and Reimer for Ward, their 1st (lottery protected, I guess - maybe just top 5-10 protected), and a 3rd/equivalent prospect?

I don't think that they're in a spot yet where giving up their 1st for rentals is something they'll even remotely consider, that's why I hesitated to add Parenteau like that. Maybe swap out PAP for Komarov, who still has term on his deal.

Online bustaheims

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #27 on: January 19, 2016, 10:16:08 AM »
I don't think that they're in a spot yet where giving up their 1st for rentals is something they'll even remotely consider, that's why I hesitated to add Parenteau like that. Maybe swap out PAP for Komarov, who still has term on his deal.

That's why there'd be protection on it or conditions based on them making the playoffs/how far they go in the playoffs, etc. I mean, if we're giving them a starting goalie and a top 6 winger, and they do some damage in the playoff? I expect a 1st round pick in return for that, at least.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #28 on: January 19, 2016, 10:25:12 AM »
That's why there'd be protection on it or conditions based on them making the playoffs/how far they go in the playoffs, etc. I mean, if we're giving them a starting goalie and a top 6 winger, and they do some damage in the playoff? I expect a 1st round pick in return for that, at least.

That starting goalie and top-6 forward have some strings attached though. One's injury prone and inconsistent and the other could have been had for free+cheap last summer. Don't get me wrong, I've said before I think both could bring back 2nd rounders but teams are generally very protective of their 1sts. Even if you make it conditional on them making the playoffs it'll still likely be in the 15-19 range.

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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #29 on: January 19, 2016, 10:36:28 AM »
That starting goalie and top-6 forward have some strings attached though. One's injury prone and inconsistent and the other could have been had for free+cheap last summer. Don't get me wrong, I've said before I think both could bring back 2nd rounders but teams are generally very protective of their 1sts. Even if you make it conditional on them making the playoffs it'll still likely be in the 15-19 range.

True, but they also have LA's 1st round pick this year. So, there's definitely potential for something to be worked out involving a 1st round pick - it just may involve some complicated conditions and some potential for additional late round picks to be added, or something along those lines.
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Re: 2016 Lead up to the Trade Deadline thread
« Reply #29 on: January 19, 2016, 10:36:28 AM »