Author Topic: The Leo Komarov Question  (Read 11504 times)

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Offline LuncheonMeat

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #15 on: December 22, 2015, 01:38:56 PM »
He's having his Klein season.

He's having his Kulemin 2010-2011 season.

Which is exactly why the Leafs should think about trading him. He could fetch and first this season, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if he turned around and scored 10 next year. I never expected Komarov to be so good this year, and I think you need to leverage that for assets toward the rebuild, if you're the Leafs.
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Offline Tigger

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #16 on: December 22, 2015, 01:58:04 PM »
IIRC, before the Ovechkin hit Leo was having a pretty good year too, he wasn't the same for quite a while after that.

I think Leo is a bit of a late bloomer as far as the NHL is concerned, but he plays a pretty complete game now and that should count for something should another team come calling, his price point certainly helps.

I'm not sure where the value line starts to change for the Leafs, is a late first good enough now? Is that more valuable to the team for the next two years? I don't think so, not enough, not yet, but something more and yeah, it's starting to cross that line.

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #17 on: December 22, 2015, 02:06:44 PM »
He's having his Klein season.

He's having his Kulemin 2010-2011 season.

The difference being that Kulemin had that season on the team's second line, a position it was reasonable to assume the Leafs would let him stay in over the next few years. His shooting percentage may have been high but his opportunities were likely to remain constant.

Conversely, does anyone expect Komarov to be a constant presence on the PP? Or the top line? His value is almost certain to decrease when he's put back on the 3rd line.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #18 on: December 22, 2015, 02:09:11 PM »
Conversely, does anyone expect Komarov to be a constant presence on the PP? Or the top line? His value is almost certain to decrease when he's put back on the 3rd line.

I've compared him to Justin Abdelkader before. His most frequent linemate in each of his past 4 seasons has either been Zetterberg or Datsyuk. Wings fans have said that Babcock loves having that grinder-type presence on his top line. So I actually don't think that's completely out of the question.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #19 on: December 22, 2015, 02:16:51 PM »
I've compared him to Justin Abdelkader before. His most frequent linemate in each of his past 4 seasons has either been Zetterberg or Datsyuk. Wings fans have said that Babcock loves having that grinder-type presence on his top line. So I actually don't think that's completely out of the question.

Maybe but with the exception of last year Babcock never gave Abdelkader anything much in the way of PP time and, probably not coincidentally, last year is the only year he produced anything offensively in all of that time.
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Offline Frank E

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #20 on: December 22, 2015, 02:24:26 PM »
Interestingly enough, they'll turn Komarov into a 2016 1st round pick.  That guy will be developed over the next few years and turn into a top liner for the Marlies with some second line NHL potential.  In 2019, the Leafs will trade him for a gritty 40 point player like Komarov for a playoff run.   

Offline Tigger

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #21 on: December 22, 2015, 02:49:57 PM »
Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #22 on: December 22, 2015, 03:03:23 PM »
Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Well:

A) Boyes and Parenteau will be gone but (hopefully), Nylander, Marner and another high value prospect will be here.

B) At some point it stands to reason that Babcock will shift away from the 4 forwards/1 defenseman PP model. Right now the Leafs have 8 forwards averaging 1:49 or more PP time per night. That's not typical.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

He's also not likely to keep shooting 22% so he's almost certain to drop down to a 25-35 point range just based on those numbers.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #23 on: December 22, 2015, 03:09:02 PM »
Maybe but with the exception of last year Babcock never gave Abdelkader anything much in the way of PP time and, probably not coincidentally, last year is the only year he produced anything offensively in all of that time.

Sure but that just shows how much Babcock values a grit guy on the top line: he'll keep one there even in lieu of points. Anyway, I've never said that we should expect Komarov to be a perennial-30 goal scorer or that we should sign him to a Clarkson-like contract when his is up. All I'm saying is that Babcock loves players like Komarov. Babcock loves Komarov. Babcock will likely fight to keep Komarov.

If anything what happens with Leo will likely be a good sign of how the power structure within our management group is defined. I could very well see Dubas drooling at the thought of what Komarov could bring back in a trade this deadline. Can/will Babcock put his foot down on this?

Online bustaheims

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #24 on: December 22, 2015, 03:11:06 PM »
Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

I agree, though, I can see Babcock (or any other coach) seeing him as a useful 3rd piece on a line with 2 skilled offensive players and using him in a Holmstrom type role on the PP, so, even though he wouldn't have the same level of effectiveness in terms of shooting percentage and such, I can see him still being a good position to put up points.

I'd still trade high on him, though. I like him a lot, and if he was ~5 years younger, I'd be arguing in favour of hanging on to him, but, I don't think the long-term value in holding on to him is there. Guys with his style tend not to last well into their 30s. He might have a little more gas in the tank because he played mostly in the KHL, but it's not like he suddenly picked up the physical game when he came to the NHL.
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Offline Tigger

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #25 on: December 22, 2015, 03:17:53 PM »
Looking at the top 10 Leafs PP toi, Komarov is seventh, just ahead of Holland, while Parenteau is fourth ahead by almost 20 mins and Boyes is ninth behind by about 8 mins. If he keeps producing, and keeping in mind the likelihood of Brad and PA being gone at least by next year, I can't see why Leo wouldn't remain a presence on the PP.

Well:

A) Boyes and Parenteau will be gone but (hopefully), Nylander, Marner and another high value prospect will be here.

B) At some point it stands to reason that Babcock will shift away from the 4 forwards/1 defenseman PP model. Right now the Leafs have 8 forwards averaging 1:49 or more PP time per night. That's not typical.

Having said that, he also has 17 ES points, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if his PP time dropped a bit.

He's also not likely to keep shooting 22% so he's almost certain to drop down to a 25-35 point range just based on those numbers.

If the argument is that Leo might be dropped from the PP and to third line ES minutes, speaking to his trade value at least, I'd have to ask why a coach would do that if he's still effective.

Well, like I said above it would be to incorporate better players and because he's not likely to remain this "effective" regardless of ice time/linemates.

Yup, Nylander and Marner, pretty much why I outlined Boyes and Parenteau. I can't speak to the likelihood of the Leafs continuing to deploy their PP the way they are.

His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

We'll have to see how he carries it, when I look back to last year before the Ovie hit he had 4g 12a in 23 games, I think all at ES, so that's a .7 ppg rate ( not a great sample size, still )

Like I said, it's not about not trading him but what is more useful to the Leafs for me, if he continues to be effective overall, he might be more useful in a deal down the line ( maybe as part of a package ). I guess the question is what you could likely get for him, and I really don't know the answer to that at this point given his situation ( playing well, 2 years left at a reasonable price point ).
"My father was born shortly after the Wright Brothers" Charlie Duke

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #26 on: December 22, 2015, 03:27:14 PM »
Sure but that just shows how much Babcock values a grit guy on the top line: he'll keep one there even in lieu of points. Anyway, I've never said that we should expect Komarov to be a perennial-30 goal scorer or that we should sign him to a Clarkson-like contract when his is up. All I'm saying is that Babcock loves players like Komarov. Babcock loves Komarov. Babcock will likely fight to keep Komarov.

If anything what happens with Leo will likely be a good sign of how the power structure within our management group is defined. I could very well see Dubas drooling at the thought of what Komarov could bring back in a trade this deadline. Can/will Babcock put his foot down on this?

I just don't buy that Babcock is that shortsighted. He very well might prefer to have a grinder on a top line(although I'd point out that he actually won his cup using a top line of Zetterberg-Datsyuk-Franzen so that might just be borne out of necessity rather than preference) but that's an argument for having a grinder in that position when the team is ready to compete, it's not really an argument for holding onto a specific player years before that with a likely inflated value.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #27 on: December 22, 2015, 03:34:33 PM »
His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

A significant increase in his shot totals, which he'd need to offset his shooting percentage normalizing, would typically be seen as a significant improvement in his play overall. Given his age and style of play, that happening over the next few years strikes me roughly as likely as his shooting percentage staying where it is.
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Offline Bullfrog

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #28 on: December 22, 2015, 03:48:10 PM »
If someone offered a 1st rounder, I wouldn't be able to hit the trade button fast enough.

Offline Tigger

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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2015, 03:49:52 PM »
His shooting percentage is going to drop, yes, perhaps his shot totals increase to offset that.

A significant increase in his shot totals, which he'd need to offset his shooting percentage normalizing, would typically be seen as a significant improvement in his play overall. Given his age and style of play, that happening over the next few years strikes me roughly as likely as his shooting percentage staying where it is.

Well, his shot totals are increasing year by year in the NHL on a per game basis, and, he had 3 shots a game 2 years in the KHL, his two best years, roughly a third more than now. It's not the NHL I know, still, he's shown that when opportunity arises he makes the most of it and his game still seems to be improving.

I also don't think his shooting percentage is the make or break note of whether to trade him or not, there's a lot more on the table than that.
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Re: The Leo Komarov Question
« Reply #29 on: December 22, 2015, 03:49:52 PM »