Author Topic: Your TML Rebuild Plan  (Read 10754 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #135 on: October 12, 2017, 04:11:18 PM »
If I were told, 2 years back, that, yes, one of those four top-ten picks will disappoint: the guy we'd hope would end up a #1D is probably going to top out as a #2... well, that's still getting really lucky, as these things go, no?

I don't entirely agree with that reading of Rielly(in at least as much as I think the #1, #2, etc thing is a terrible way to rate players) but yes. I don't want to ascribe too much to luck but there's no getting around that things in that sense have generally gone pretty well. Winning the Lottery, for instance, is certainly a huge bit of good fortune.

But even here, back to marveling at our good fortune: if I were told the Leafs would make the playoffs and still be able to draft a guy who'd been scouted the year prior as having top-3 skill...

I mean, you're going to try and make me say Angelo Esposito again but I...dangit.
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #136 on: October 12, 2017, 04:18:16 PM »

Just as a for instance, I think a lot of what people didn't foresee was Andersen coming in and providing the team with immediately above-average goaltending. Now, you can chalk that up in part to luck but it's also a credit of sorts to management and a result of a designed strategy to be good sooner rather than later.

Will that prove to ultimately be a good decision? We sort of have to wait and see on that one. You don't want to read too much into early results but I have some doubts that Andersen is going to be in that fairly elite modern group of Goalies who are going to be above average every year.
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Offline Bender

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #137 on: October 12, 2017, 10:06:35 PM »
One thing Andersen has consistently shown is inconsistency.

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Online Zee

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #138 on: October 13, 2017, 08:53:00 AM »
One thing Andersen has consistently shown is inconsistency.

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It's a bit infuriating.  I mean last season he had months where he played under .900 save% and then months where he was crazy good .930% or something, and it all evens out to something like .918...would be nice if he just played .918-.920 all the time so you know what you're getting every start.  I guess that's not realistic.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #139 on: October 13, 2017, 11:38:16 AM »
If I were told, 2 years back, that, yes, one of those four top-ten picks will disappoint: the guy we'd hope would end up a #1D is probably going to top out as a #2... well, that's still getting really lucky, as these things go, no?
I don't entirely agree with that reading of Rielly(in at least as much as I think the #1, #2, etc thing is a terrible way to rate players) but yes. I don't want to ascribe too much to luck but there's no getting around that things in that sense have generally gone pretty well. Winning the Lottery, for instance, is certainly a huge bit of good fortune.

I enjoy how even when you don't disagree with someone you can find some semantics to quibble over (whatever Rielly is, it's a pretty good "bust" to have).

1. Matthews was a huge bit of good fortune.

2. Drafting Nylander, Marner, Rielly and having all turn into good NHLers is either being good or (cos injuries, whatever) lucky. Sometimes guys just don't turn out as expected (as you noted with Hawks' top picks)

3. Keeping Kadri and Gardiner was smart.

4. Keeping Bozak and JvR inflated their performance to some degree, to be sure. Over the long term, I think not a smart move.

5. Getting the goalie seemed premature, has worked out so far. Over the long term... I dunno.

The Leafs probably don't make the playoffs without 4 and 5, which none of us really expected or really like(d) as moves.

But 1-3 are key parts of the rebuild, I think, and, with them going as they have, the Leafs might not be a playoff team yet without 4 & 5, but they'd be looking a lot better than any of us expected.


But even here, back to marveling at our good fortune: if I were told the Leafs would make the playoffs and still be able to draft a guy who'd been scouted the year prior as having top-3 skill...
I mean, you're going to try and make me say Angelo Esposito again but I...dangit.
[/quote]

Sure. That could happen. I wondered back around draft time what the history was on guys who fell out of the top three/five over the course of their draft year. How many are Espositos? How many are Nylanders? How many are somewhere in between?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #140 on: October 13, 2017, 11:54:43 AM »
I enjoy how even when you don't disagree with someone you can find some semantics to quibble over (whatever Rielly is, it's a pretty good "bust" to have).

To be clear, I do disagree re: Rielly. I was just moving past it because I didn't want to get bogged down in "Where do we see Morgan Rielly in 5 years?".

Also, semantics is typically about the meaning of words. Saying a rating system is misleading or overly simplistic isn't really a semantic discussion. What I just wrote, however, is.

But 1-3 are key parts of the rebuild, I think, and, with them going as they have, the Leafs might not be a playoff team yet without 4 & 5, but they'd be looking a lot better than any of us expected.

Sure. I don't think we can overstate the importance to a rebuild of winning a lottery and drafting someone like Matthews. Not just because of how good he is but because of the ripple effects it would have on the roster. 

Sure. That could happen. I wondered back around draft time what the history was on guys who fell out of the top three/five over the course of their draft year. How many are Espositos? How many are Nylanders? How many are somewhere in between?

To be fair, I think there's less "could" and more "did" there. That's not to say that Liljegren can't still develop into a really good player, he can. But that's true of anyone drafted in the first round, one time projected top 5 pick or not.

Which is to say that if you'd told me that the Leafs would make the playoffs but they'd still draft Liljegren with their pick I'd probably wonder why he was available as opposed to chalking it up to divine favour.
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Offline disco

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #141 on: October 19, 2017, 12:39:35 PM »
Nick just made a good point just now on Hockey Central about how much the Leafs spend outside the cap now on things like scouting, sports-sciences, farm-team, coaching... etc. Speculating it's tops in the League and good on them. For sure, when you're as rich as MLSE it seems reasonable that all you divisions are well funded, but it's not a guarantee.
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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #141 on: October 19, 2017, 12:39:35 PM »