Author Topic: Your TML Rebuild Plan  (Read 10785 times)

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Offline mr grieves

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #30 on: May 01, 2016, 08:04:58 PM »
I think any predictions that start with the notion that basically all of the Leafs first rounders will turn into elite players and quickly are probably on the unrealistically optimistic side of things. Just from a strict numbers standpoint odds are that one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and whoever they draft this year won't be all that big a deal.

Question for any interested to answer it. Has anyone looked closely at Marner's D+1 OHL season and Nylander's D+2 AHL season and updated their comparables? Have we seen anything that would indicate we should start tempering our optimism? Asking with full knowledge that a full NHL season can slow their progress.

Also, looking at page 1, I noted that my prediction was, if they didn't trade JvR, Kadri, and (probably) Gardiner, they'd have too much talent in 2016-17 to really have great odds for the 2017 draft lottery. With the addition of Matthews, 2014-15 Panthers season is my optimistic prediction (25-point increase to 94 points). 

Offline sneakyray

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #31 on: May 01, 2016, 08:20:30 PM »
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.

Offline Zee

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #32 on: May 01, 2016, 08:26:43 PM »
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
Bernier was terrible during the first half of the season but played quite a bit better after that. If he play at or slightly better than his career .915% next season the Leafs should be OK, but yeah they need to have someone up and coming real soon.

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #33 on: May 01, 2016, 09:31:40 PM »
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.

Not to discount goaltending, but the sorta reliable superstar goalies that you'd want to lock up and call 'core' are few and far between. Most that are under long-term, big-dollar contracts aren't worth it. A lot of those bad contracts were given to goaltenders who had a couple great years (including Cup wins), but turned out not to be as essential as the Cup would make them seem. There's a lesson in that about what sort of goaltending you need to win a Cup (and about what to do with goaltenders, how to keep your skating core intact, etc.). So, depth, yes, by all means. And assembling a group of quality options shouldn't be that hard, given how cheaply goaltenders can be acquired.

What about defense? That's the weakness that's a lot harder to address, I think. The Leafs' core is full of high-end forwards, and still no Doughty/Karlsson/Subban/Letang/Weber/Keith/Chara/30m-man in sight.

Offline Jolly good show chaps

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #34 on: May 02, 2016, 03:15:10 AM »
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?

Offline sneakyray

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #35 on: May 02, 2016, 07:54:08 AM »
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there. 

Offline Al14

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #36 on: May 03, 2016, 01:44:36 PM »
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)

Offline sneakyray

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #37 on: May 03, 2016, 08:20:18 PM »
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)

same reason that others want to trade jvr...you have to give to get.

Offline harps64

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #38 on: May 03, 2016, 08:41:53 PM »
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Offline mr grieves

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #39 on: May 03, 2016, 08:50:35 PM »
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #40 on: May 03, 2016, 09:21:55 PM »

When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #41 on: May 03, 2016, 09:36:57 PM »
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)

same reason that others want to trade jvr...you have to give to get.

There's another saying, the more you give the more you get. With that line of thinking why not trade Marner Nylander or Rielly?
« Last Edit: May 03, 2016, 09:38:44 PM by RedLeaf »
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Offline harps64

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #42 on: May 03, 2016, 09:38:12 PM »
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2016, 10:03:31 PM by harps64 »

Offline bustaheims

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #43 on: May 03, 2016, 10:01:12 PM »
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.
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Offline harps64

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #44 on: May 03, 2016, 10:07:10 PM »
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

 Joe Thornton....maybe?

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Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
« Reply #44 on: May 03, 2016, 10:07:10 PM »