Author Topic: Bozak: Number one centre?  (Read 1123 times)

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2014, 05:48:28 PM »
But Kessel has put up points/goals at pretty much the same rate no matter who his C has been.

Sure. Sort of like how Crosby has produced at a pretty consistent rate over the course of his career regardless of who his wingers were while his wingers themselves have varied wildly in terms of what they've been able to produce while on Crosby's line.
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Offline Potvin29

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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2014, 05:50:30 PM »
But Kessel has put up points/goals at pretty much the same rate no matter who his C has been.

Sure. Sort of like how Crosby has produced at a pretty consistent rate over the course of his career regardless of who his wingers were while his wingers themselves have varied wildly in terms of what they've been able to produce while on Crosby's line.

I'm not super familiar with them, what are the wild variations in production by Crosby's wingers?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2014, 05:59:26 PM »
I'm not super familiar with them, what are the wild variations in production by Crosby's wingers?

Crosby's played entire seasons of putting up 100+ points with no wingers on the team even scoring 50 points. He's also had seasons of 100+ points with guys scoring 60-70 on his wing. 

The next goal Chris Kunitz scores will mark the first time Crosby's had a winger score 30 goals in a season, yet Crosby is on pace for 109 points, the same total he did in the year where there weren't any 50 point wingers on his team.
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Offline Potvin29

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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2014, 06:37:06 PM »
But they have been top 7 at least in scoring every season Crosby has been healthy.  So if we're talking about it being necessary to maximize the team's offensive production it hasn't seemed to matter who is playing with Crosby - the goals have still come regardless.

I'd say that's because of how Crosby makes everyone better.  In 2009-10 for instance, Crosby had 109 points and played mostly with Guerin/Kunitz (but Kunitz was injured part of the year) but at even strength Crosby put up more points with Letang/Goligoski than any of his wingers.

Kunitz getting 30 is really just a function of him being the first winger to play so much in a season with Crosby.  Of Crosby's ~979 5 on 5 minutes this season, Kunitz has played 808 of them.

From 2008-2013 these are the 5 forwards Crosby has played the most with, and the Penguins goals per 20:00 with them on the ice together:

Kunitz: 1.45
Dupuis: 1.36
Malkin: 1.76
Guerin: 1.23
Satan: 1.1

The numbers are similar with the D - when Crosby and one of Letang, Orpik, Goligoski, Martin, Gonchar are on the ice the GF/20 are all 1.3 or higher.

If the original point was that not just anyone could be Brendan Morrison, or in this case, Chris Kunitz, shouldn't there be some very clear benefit to the Penguins overall to having them together?  A significant uptick in the team's offensive production when they play together?

I'm not seeing a significant difference when it is Kunitz/Crosby, other than in Kunitz' individual production.  The Pens seem to put up a ton of goals regardless of who Crosby is on the ice with - so why does it matter WHO it is with, other than their individual stats?

No, not everyone can score with Kunitz' SH%, just like not everyone can with Bozak's, but in both cases the stats tend to show that you could put anyone in Kunitz' or Bozak's position and the goals would still come - maybe not necessarily from whoever you put in that position, but the net effect for the team should still be similar.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2014, 07:00:24 PM »
But they have been top 7 at least in scoring every season Crosby has been healthy.  So if we're talking about it being necessary to maximize the team's offensive production it hasn't seemed to matter who is playing with Crosby - the goals have still come regardless.

Well, I think the pretty readily apparent logical problem with your argument here is assuming that there's no difference in "maximizing the team's offensive production" between finishing 7th in goals for and finishing 1st. Crosby and Malkin are good enough that, yes, you can put them with nobodies and their individual talents will lead to a lot of goals being scored. That doesn't mean that there aren't benefits to having the right guys with him. Look at your own list. The difference between the high and the low end is two thirds of a goal per game. That's a very significant difference. The difference between Kunitz and Satan, as expressed on that list, works out to roughly 30 goals a year, which, coincidentally enough would be the difference between finishing first in goals for as they did in 2011-2012 and finishing 7th that same year.

So the idea that it's not a significant difference in production doesn't really seem to wash. Yes, whoever Crosby is paired with will lead to good production but I assume that "good" isn't what anyone is aiming for.
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Re: Bozak: Number one centre?
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2014, 07:00:24 PM »