Author Topic: A couple of prospects rankings  (Read 4975 times)

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Offline CarltonTheBear

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A couple of prospects rankings
« on: August 27, 2011, 01:41:06 PM »
A couple of sites have recently ranked our top prospects in the last week or so.

First, Corey Pronman of Hockey Prospectus ranked our top-10 prospects:

1. Joe Colborne, Center
2. Jake Gardiner, Defense
3. Jesse Blacker, Defense
4. Greg McKegg, Center
5. Stuart Percy, Defense*
6. Marcel Mueller, Left Wing
7. Jerry D'Amigo, Left Wing
8. Matt Frattin, Right Wing
9. Brad Ross, Left Wing
10. Sondre Olden, Left Wing

And today HockeysFuture ranked our top-20 prospects:

1)    Nazem Kadri, C
2)    James Reimer, G
3)    Joe Colborne, C
4)    Jake Gardiner, D
5)    Keith Aulie, D
6)   Jesse Blacker, D
7)    Matt Frattin, RW
8)    Greg McKegg, LW
9)    Tyler Biggs, RW
10)    Stuart Percy, D
11)    Ben Scrivens, G
12)    Brad Ross, LW
13)    Jussi Rynnas, G
14)    Korbinian Holzer, D
15)    Jerry D'Amigo, LW
16)    Luca Caputi, LW
17)    Juraj Mikus, D
18)    Simon Gysbers, D
19)    Josh Nicholls, RW
20)    Josh Leivo, LW

It's interesting where the rankings differ. Obviously, Kadri, Aulie, and Reimer aren't considered prospects anymore at HP which explains their absence. Both Mueller and Olden cracked Corey's top-10 but didn't make it into HF's top-20. Tyler Biggs is notably absent in Corey's top-10, and explains why he isn't crazy about him as a prospect in his top-100 prospects rankings.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2011, 01:43:13 PM by CarltonTheBear »

Offline Fletch

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2011, 02:13:21 PM »
The top two prospects in either list (excluding Kadri and Reimer), Colborne and Gardiner, were both acquired by Burke in trades.

Offline WAYNEINIONA

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2011, 06:16:59 PM »
Glad to see Kadri is still our number 1 prospect. I really hope he shows that in the preseason.

Offline Fletch

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2011, 07:55:21 PM »
Glad to see Kadri is still our number 1 prospect. I really hope he shows that in the preseason.

I hope he shows it in the regular season.  It seems to me Caputi showed he was a topprospect in the preseason last year, and Stalberg/Hanson before that.

Offline Jacques Strap

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2011, 08:19:32 PM »
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.

Offline WAYNEINIONA

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2011, 09:30:36 PM »
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Offline donkeyy0

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2011, 09:34:07 PM »
I don't get some of these ratings...Colborne's rating has changed 3 times since the trade (so in about ~6 months)...

Aulie is ranked behind Gardiner and Colborne (7.5C) but above Blacker (7.5C)

Also...Blacker is rated the same as Gardiner...I dunno, that just doesn't seem correct...

Also, I have my own issues with Gardiner's rating dropping. As when I saw him the couple times I did at Ricoh...the guy was by far the best athlete on the ice. Don't see why he'd have his potential drop. But whatever, that's just my own personal views. The other stuff just seems wrong/confusing.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2011, 11:24:42 PM »

Interesting, in the mildest and least committed sense of the word, that neither guy is especially high on Biggs given the price paid.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2011, 12:53:23 AM »
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Furthermore, couldn't you essentially say the same thing about a guy like Darren Dreger or Bob McKenzie? If they are such great hockey analysts why aren't they working for a NHL team? Or for a comparison closer to the one you made, why isn't Kyle Woodlief of the Red Line Report a NHL scout?

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2011, 01:06:37 PM »

Clearly none of these guys have done the hard legwork and years of study that would enable them to be hired by a NHL team solely on the basis of their talent evaluation the way John Ferguson Jr. and Patrick Burke did.
Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon
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Offline bustaheims

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2011, 01:46:33 PM »
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

The other guy and his site, I've never heard of, but, if looks like it could be a similar situation. It's pretty much just a blog - whether or not it's run by people who actually know how to scout or have scouting experience and other such stuff that will lend credence to their opinions, I don't know, though, their affiliation with Baseball Prospectus at least makes it appear as though they're a little more connected than the average set of fan bloggers.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline CarltonTheBear

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2011, 02:48:44 PM »
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

The other guy and his site, I've never heard of, but, if looks like it could be a similar situation. It's pretty much just a blog - whether or not it's run by people who actually know how to scout or have scouting experience and other such stuff that will lend credence to their opinions, I don't know, though, their affiliation with Baseball Prospectus at least makes it appear as though they're a little more connected than the average set of fan bloggers.

If you don't want to take these rankings as the Bible, or you want to disagree with how the prospects were ranked, that's fine by me. But to completely disregard them just because the person who did them doesn't work for a CHL/AHL/NHL team seems silly.

Offline Newbury

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2011, 03:29:51 PM »
It's not necessarily an unfair question. I mean, most of the guys that write for hockeysfuture are fans that volunteer their time, have obvious biases and so on - they don't necessarily have a background in hockey or scouting - even enough knowledge of the intricacies of scouting to really give weight to their opinions.

I write for HF, and while none of the writers are "professional" many of them are actually quite connected and do more than just sit at their computer and write what they see/hear about prospects. I'm not sure about the Leafs writer, but from everything I've seen him post on the Staff board he seems to be pretty knowledgeable. It's also somewhat of a collaborative process. While he is the Leafs writer, there's also NCAA, QMJHL, OHL, etc. specific writers who are often given passes to attend games, conduct interviews and what not. Those people will often chime in on prospect rankings and what not. Sure, nobody there is a professional scout, but there's enough collaboration and time put into these rankings to assure that it's about as accurate as they can get it.

There's also no real biases or anything - you likely won't get selected to write for your favourite team, and any prospect ranking has to be approved by the rest of the staff.

Offline Jacques Strap

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2011, 08:00:42 PM »
So these guys that rank prospects, they must be good enough at it that one of the 120 NHL, AHL or CHL teams would pay them to scout, right?

No?

Ok, that's about all I need to know.


So I guess this means their opinion is pointless.

Furthermore, couldn't you essentially say the same thing about a guy like Darren Dreger or Bob McKenzie? If they are such great hockey analysts why aren't they working for a NHL team? Or for a comparison closer to the one you made, why isn't Kyle Woodlief of the Red Line Report a NHL scout?

I could, and would. Dreger and McKenzie are not paid to be player evaluators, they are paid to report sports news. If one of them says a trade is about to be made, I can take that to the bank, because being on the inside of front office stuff is what they do best. As far as evaluation.... well, they make pre-season picks every year, how often are they right, or even close?

These types of amateur player and team rankings are merely conversation starters for the dog days of summer. To be honest, I'd be far more interested in hearing what you had to say about specific players you've gone and seen play, than hearing debates about what one random amateur "ranked" them at vs. another.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2011, 08:03:18 PM by Jacques Strap »

Offline cw

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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2011, 09:36:58 PM »
If one person could really do it "all", NHL teams would only need one scout. Like everyone else, all one can do is collect a bunch of info/opinions & insert what they've seen of the various prospects into factoring their rankings.

I give McKenzie's opinion some weight because he does watch junior hockey, the WJCs and helps to prepare TSN's draft projections so he follows prospects year round and talks with a bunch of folks in-the-know.

Biggs not doing well with either ranking isn't the end of his NHL aspirations and doesn't guarantee the Leafs were wrong to draft him. But it's something that's notable in the back of my mind on how I might project his NHL future as he develops. Not having seen him play much, what else do we have except things like this, his scouting report, etc. Regardless, for me, the jury is out as I haven't seen him play enough to conclude one way or the other.


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Re: A couple of prospects rankings
« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2011, 09:36:58 PM »