Author Topic: Ryan O'Reilly  (Read 19052 times)

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Offline Bender

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2013, 03:15:15 AM »
Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2013, 03:37:38 AM by Bender »
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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2013, 10:19:36 AM »
Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Not to get off into too much of a tangent regarding the use of advanced metrics in hockey but I think that the ones that are out there aren't anywhere near good enough or definitive enough to draw solid conclusions from them. For the most part none of them do the one thing that is problematic about hockey numbers to begin with, and that's try to identify individual play in a game with so many moving parts and outside factors. Things like Corsi measure results and then assume there's a sort of truth in the aggregate when applying them to individuals. That may be true in cases but ultimately that's the same argument that's made by people who rely heavily on +/- to determine defense.

I appreciate the instinct to try and pin down contributions in hockey better with numbers but I don't think that we're anywhere close to having anything that should be taken seriously in a meaningful discussion about the relative worths of players.
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Offline Leafaholic99

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #32 on: February 16, 2013, 11:25:37 AM »
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.

Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #33 on: February 16, 2013, 11:46:18 AM »
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.

I agree too. I'd trade MacCarthur straight up for O'Reilly if I could. Thing is, I very much doubt Colorado would make either of those trades. If you follow/believe the reports, they want Kadri or Gardiner.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2013, 11:48:18 AM by RedLeaf »
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Offline Peter D.

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #34 on: February 16, 2013, 01:48:48 PM »
I'd be very leery in dealing Kadri or Gardiner (especially the latter) for O'Reilly.

He had a very good season as a 21-year old, but when I think of future #1 centers, he doesn't jump to mind.

Offline moon111

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #35 on: February 16, 2013, 02:02:33 PM »
A team with John Mitchell being 3rd in points is going to be giving ice-time to anyone without them actually having earned it. 
R.I.P. Maureen.  You'll always be with us.

Offline Britishbulldog

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #36 on: February 16, 2013, 02:15:25 PM »
O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!
All The Best
Dan

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #37 on: February 16, 2013, 04:14:23 PM »
O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!

+1


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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #38 on: February 17, 2013, 06:34:51 PM »
I wonder if this whole issue isn't actually completely a money thing but rather his way of forcing a trade out of Colorado.

It might be that he sees himself stuck behind Duchene/Stastny, or it could be that he's ticked off that he got passed over for promotion to a younger guy and a rookie. I don't know if those are valid reasons but it's a strange situation.

Just seems as if there's something out of sight that went on between his side and management.

Offline Potvin29

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #39 on: February 18, 2013, 09:24:02 PM »
Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Anything I write will just be repeating what others have written, but this makes a pretty good case for O'Reilly's worth (especially the PPG comparables at his age):

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

I also find the WOWY stat interesting:

Quote
The one forward in the past two years whose Corsi % was actually better away from O'Reilly was, as you may have guessed, Gabriel Landeskog. Only one defenceman in two years had a worse Corsi % with O'Reilly than away from him, and that was Scott Hannan, who only just barely made the cut-off for this list at 105 minutes. It's pretty clear that O'Reilly is a player who drives play and makes those around him better. A play-making centre who can put up points while driving play and locking down the defensive side of the game? Sounds like exactly what the Leafs need on the Phil Kessel line.

Offline Kessel Run

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #40 on: February 18, 2013, 09:30:45 PM »
Do the Avs need any defensemen?

Offline RedLeaf

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2013, 08:31:45 AM »
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.
"The Maple Leafs are like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water, and my job is to get the ship pointed in the right direction." --Steve Jobs for Brendan Shanahan.

Offline Zee

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2013, 08:53:33 AM »
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

The days of the Leafs giving away first round draft picks are over (at least for now)

Offline Corn Flake

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #43 on: February 19, 2013, 09:27:54 AM »
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

Offline Corn Flake

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #44 on: February 19, 2013, 09:28:54 AM »
Do the Avs need any defensemen?

Yes.  They need a mobile guy in a big way.  I doubt they would go for Liles coming back, but you never know.  they will want Gardiner for ROR, almost guaranteed.

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #44 on: February 19, 2013, 09:28:54 AM »