Author Topic: Ryan O'Reilly  (Read 19054 times)

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Offline TML fan

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #15 on: February 15, 2013, 03:09:30 PM »
Is O'Reilly really that good, or is the interest in him there simply because he's available?

Offline Zee

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #16 on: February 15, 2013, 03:25:29 PM »
Is O'Reilly really that good, or is the interest in him there simply because he's available?

People have suggested he's a solid 2nd line center on most teams and a 3rd on deep teams.  I don't see how acquiring him and giving up a Kadri or Gardiner is anything but a sideways move.  Maybe Kadri will become the 2nd center if he continues to develop?  I'm sure O'Rielly would be a nice addition, but at what cost to a team that is still finding out what they have in their own system.

Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2013, 03:28:32 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.
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Offline Sarge

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #18 on: February 15, 2013, 03:31:05 PM »
O'Reilly + Kadri could potentially set us up long term 1-2 down the middle. The stars would need to align a little but I don't think it's out of the question. I would most certainly make a play for him but I'd like to retain Kadri.   

Offline Zee

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #19 on: February 15, 2013, 03:52:38 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.

Kadri also has one of the best corsi ratings on the Leafs, if you believe in that stat unlike Don Cherry.

Offline princedpw

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #20 on: February 15, 2013, 05:11:24 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.

Kadri also has one of the best corsi ratings on the Leafs, if you believe in that stat unlike Don Cherry.

It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

Online RedLeaf

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #21 on: February 15, 2013, 05:24:07 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

Do we really know what Kadri's "ceiling" is yet?  It's the first season he's been given a full time role.  He's averaging 14 min/game and is almost on a point a game pace right now.  O'Reilly last year averaged 19 min/game and had 55 points in 81 games.

Now i'm not suggesting Kadri is a bona-fide 70-80 point player, but we just don't know that yet.  I'd be hesitant to trade him away when he's just starting to find his role.

That's the nature of the business though. I'm sure Colorado would be hesitant to trade away O'Reilly without knowing his true ceiling too. The point is O'Reilly is more than a one dimensional player, whereas Kadri really isn't. If he isn't producing points, he's taking up someone else's spot in the lineup.

If you believe O'Reilly's offensive game is even close to that of Kadri's, which at this point in time it is, than 9 times out of 10 I make that trade.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2013, 05:28:07 PM by RedLeaf »
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Online CarltonTheBear

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #22 on: February 15, 2013, 05:26:53 PM »
It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.

Online RedLeaf

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #23 on: February 15, 2013, 05:35:19 PM »
Hey Mirtle. Quit stealing ideas from this site. ;)

Mirtle's tweet...

Here's an interesting debate for Leafs fans: Would you move Kadri for O'Reilly? @jamiemclennan29 and @HayesTSN were getting into this today.
"The Maple Leafs are like a ship with a hole in the bottom, leaking water, and my job is to get the ship pointed in the right direction." --Steve Jobs for Brendan Shanahan.

Offline Bender

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #24 on: February 15, 2013, 06:37:08 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

That is a heavily biased opinion based on all the information we have. I can't fathom giving up a similar player statistically and thensome for someone who has proven very little at the NHL level. I can't understand this move - why not deal from a position of strength than a position of utter weakness? Regardless, I think this is a sideways move at best and another miscalculated move of prospects and picks at worst.
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Online bustaheims

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #25 on: February 15, 2013, 06:48:06 PM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.
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Offline Lee-bo

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #26 on: February 15, 2013, 06:50:13 PM »
I think it would be ridiculous to not pursue o'reilly. I don't think we should trade Kadri, but why not a defencemen? Having Kadri and o'reilly up the middle would set us up nicely for years to come.

Offline Hampreacher

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #27 on: February 15, 2013, 09:07:52 PM »
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

Offline princedpw

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #28 on: February 15, 2013, 10:15:00 PM »
It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.

(Yes, I'm aware of other such stats.). Count me as shocked that they have the same quality of competition.  I'd have to look in to that to find out what I think of that ... feel free to post more details. Is it really the case that opposing teams are intentionally putting up the same talent against Kadri as Kessel?  Kadri's line cant possibly be viewed around the league as the same kind of consistent offensive threat as Kessel's. ... But I'd be interested to know why the numbers show that or what is going on.

Offline Bender

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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2013, 12:21:44 AM »
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.

I'm not prepared to give up on Nazem just because O'Reilly had one hot year. Who knows if he'll be able to recreate that again. Besides, I think Mirtle is overstating the differences in metrics. I'm looking through Kadri this year vs. O'Reilly last year and I honestly cannot see a big difference between them. This is a sideways move at best.

O'Reilly: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f5=COL&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Kadri: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
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Re: Ryan O'Reilly
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2013, 12:21:44 AM »