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Messages - herman

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31
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 10, 2018, 12:27:03 PM »

Cheeky chique.

32
NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 10:04:19 AM »

33
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 10, 2018, 09:18:41 AM »
17. Jeremy Bracco

Braccooooooooo!

He got the rookie treatment, but also started the season on the wrong foot with a bout of mono over the summer (Mitchy, what you doing?). He does have a bit of a hill to climb in order to make it to the Leafs as he occupies the same niche as Marner and Nylander, and Brown and Kapanen offer complementary benefits. A reality of the cap era is that decent to good wingers will need to be shed as they climb the pay scale, so options like Bracco (and Grundstrom, Korshkov, etc.) will eventually find roster space, or be spun off for assets in niches of need.

35
NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 09, 2018, 04:26:15 PM »

Just under Kadri's deal and well under Tom Wilson's (more UFA years on those two); kind of an overpay nonetheless.

36
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: The Defensive Logjam
« on: August 09, 2018, 03:34:11 PM »
I'm kstacey.

I don't believe you. You know how to spell Auston Matthews.

37
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: The Defensive Logjam
« on: August 09, 2018, 03:21:38 PM »
https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/95w59h/daily_offseason_player_discussion_18_connor/e3w0x4h

Okay, which one of you is this...

LH
RH
Rielly
Gardiner
Dermott
Hainsey
Marincin
Rosen
Borgman
Nielsen
Zaitsev
Carrick
Holl
Ozhiganov
Liljegren
Subban
Lindgren

38
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 09, 2018, 02:33:35 PM »
I would do this:

PP1
Tavares
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Rielly

PP2
Leivo
Matthews - Johnsson - Nylander
Gardiner/Zaitsev

PK - DZ start
Tavares - Hyman
Hainsey - Zaitsev

PK - OTF
Lindholm - Kapanen
Marleau - Brown
Marincin - Holl

39
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 09, 2018, 11:33:25 AM »
...Adding Tavares instead gives the Leafs an overmatch on lines 2-4, if not also on 1 (playing less DZ hockey). Tavares also fairly recently invested in developing his own play away from the puck (to Selke levels) and you can bet those lessons will be imparted to the young forward core of the Leafs.

I temporarily forgot that we added Tavares. I just got excited again about the season! One of the reasons I was so initially excited about Tavares is my understanding that he's really a complete player. Regardless of how well known he is, I think a lot of fans are going to be surprised by just how good his overall game is.

Matthews-Tavares-Kadri

just ridiculous

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/tavares-stacks-top-centres-free-agency-suitors/

Berkshire did another article pre-Tavares Day to see how his on-ice contributions stack up to other top centres in the game. What's nice about these is you can see his relative numbers right next to Matthews'. What's also nice is you can see just what a goal-generating monster Matthews is. What's really nice is Tavares is pretty close offensively while being better defensively. What's putting this over the top is that the Leafs have both of these players and it pushes their 32-goal scoring prime veteran centre Nazem Kadri down to feast on much lower competition on the road.

40
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 09, 2018, 10:24:04 AM »
I'm sort of being facetious but as you're well aware there's really no way to avoid the sort of old school-new school divide between the Leafs' previous regime and the one that seemed to be in place when the Leafs brought in guys like Shanahan and Dubas.

Because a huge chunk of the debate in the hockey media over the last decade or so has been about these competing philosophies I think there were quite a few people who so wanted their beliefs validated that they were willing to pre-approve the new front office and give them credit before it was due. The flip side being the old schoolers wanting to take shots at it and give more credit to who they saw as their ideological horses like Lamoriello and Hunter.

Ah that.

During the Lou-Dubas transition, there was a very concerted effort in their media availabilities and subsequent interviews to stress Dubas' hockey bona fides to bridge the two factions of the fanbase. It's been quite interesting to see how each team that has been on the forefront of this 'battle' have chosen to handle it (see Florida).

41
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 09, 2018, 09:21:30 AM »
18. Sean Durzi

He's basically a rover.

His draft year was hampered by discovering he had Os Trigonum Syndrome that required surgical correction and subsequent rehab that led to him sitting at the 2017 draft through 7 rounds. Getting drafted by his hometown team the following year was his reward for the breakout season he followed up that disappointment with.

Dubas invited him to the 2017-18 dev camp and wanted to sign him, but didn't have the contract space at the time.

42
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 09, 2018, 09:18:53 AM »
Just coming back to this on the verge of thing for a minute.

What's this based on? I vaguely recall someone giving the Leafs 1st place odds at winning a cup next year. Is that it?

Yes, the Leafs added Tavares. And, full marks for that. I didn't think they would pull that off. It will help greatly. Well done. I'm not saying otherwise...but that defense! It's barely playoff calibre, let alone championship quality.

I'm not saying Dubas can't or won't improve that part of the Leafs. I'm sure he sees the need to do so, but it's not a given that he will be able to.

"On the verge of a Stanley Cup" is Lindsay Hofford hyperbole for "Mark Hunter is a hockey wizard" as he's stumping for his long-time boss/friend. I think his statement is accurate insofar as he was reflecting what most of the front office and team probably felt about themselves at the time. Judging by their deadline moves (or lackthereof), that was pretty clearly their read. It's not that accurate per reality, but our perception is generally the reality we interact with.

As for the defense, most hockey systems analysts of the team have pointed to systems and tactics being more culpable than personnel. Defense is a team measure, not just the 2 dudes who play closest to the goalie. To build on what we have further would require a significant asset investment (cap space and players), i.e. we need a 1RD. Adding Tavares instead gives the Leafs an overmatch on lines 2-4, if not also on 1 (playing less DZ hockey). Tavares also fairly recently invested in developing his own play away from the puck (to Selke levels) and you can bet those lessons will be imparted to the young forward core of the Leafs.

43
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 08, 2018, 01:35:42 PM »
Is it Shanahan related, or is it more Bell/Rogers owning the team related? I'm not saying there's a nefarious conspiracy, but it would make sense for a media conglomerate to curate their message about a business property. It definitely appeared to 'stabilize' around Shanahan.

I don't really think it's either. I think that what happened was that certain things the new management team did, whether cynically or not, appealed to a lot of the new breed of media and there isn't anyone in the world who doesn't like being told they're pretty.

Would you be able to share some examples?

(Basically, I don't know what you mean exactly)

44
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:53:58 AM »
This story sounds unbelievable but oh so sickeningly true.  According to reports, human trafficking is a "$99M industry".   Perhaps you're wondering what does this have to do with sporting events?  Everything, from PGA tournaments to World Cup to HOF inductions, etc., etc.

The Olympics is a HUGE factor in this.

Another intersection of sports events and the real world, but in the opposite direction is an apparent decrease in crime during games.

https://www.newyorker.com/science/elements/how-to-fight-crime-with-your-television

Quote
Their data set was rich, spanning the period from January of 2001 through December of 2013, a stretch in which they analyzed twelve Super Bowls, two hundred and four Bears games (a hundred and eighty-six on Sundays, eighteen on Monday nights), ninety-four N.B.A. Finals games, sixty-eight Bulls playoff games, seventy World Series games, and thirty-four Cubs and White Sox playoff games. The authors, Hannah Laqueur and Ryan Copus, examined Chicago crime reports by the half hour while those games were in progress and compared them to reports from the same time, day, and month when the teams weren’t playing.

The effects were hard to miss. On Monday nights when the Bears were playing, crime in Chicago was down thirteen per cent—property crimes by three per cent, violent crimes by eleven per cent, and drug crimes by nearly thirty per cent—compared to the same Monday-night time slot when the Bears were off. Crime was consistently lower, though to a smaller degree, during N.B.A. finals games, Bulls playoff games, and Cubs and White Sox playoff games, regardless of whether the games were played at home or away. The Super Bowl had the biggest impact. During the three-plus hours of the game, crime fell by an average of twenty-five per cent—property and violent crimes by roughly fifteen per cent and drug crimes by more than sixty per cent—which amounts to about sixty fewer crimes.

They also note an uptick in domestic violence after an upset home team loss.

A lot of people really don't know how to process their feelings. I think it's a safe bet all this largely applies to the male demographic.

45
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:47:28 AM »
I hope you don't mind, Nik, that I've pushed the response to the above into the media thread; I think it's a very interesting discussion but lacking in prospect rankings.

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