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Messages - Nik the Trik

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1
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: October 17. 2018. Legalized Pot Day
« on: Yesterday at 10:20:56 PM »

Shockingly, a government that sees its own incompetence as a selling point seems to have bungled this whole roll out.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Yesterday at 10:20:06 PM »

I'm fairly sure I never blamed Nylander's father or Agent.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Yesterday at 09:48:09 PM »

So is Nylander good now? I'm not sure how this works.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Yesterday at 03:06:06 PM »
KHL isn't going to pay Nylander anywhere close to what he's asking.

I thought the whole scam there was that it's not as high a number but it's effectively tax free so the take home is ultimately the same or higher. Of course I think that's for Russians, I'm not sure how it would work if Nylander still lives in Sweden.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Yesterday at 03:01:39 PM »
Nylander:  Sure, I'll consider a bridge...$8mX3.

I think that might be closer to the truth than we think. A lot of people have assumed that a bridge deal would just automatically come with a deep discount but I'm not so sure that's the case.

6
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2018-2019 NHL Thread
« on: October 17, 2018, 11:06:26 PM »
Nick Ritchie has signed a 3 yr deal at 1.533M AAV.

Good, team friendly rate. Clearly cares about winning, being a good dressing room presence. Definitely should have picked him over Nylander.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 11:03:03 PM »
I think GM's can fall under the power of a narrative just the same as any one else.

Yeah, I genuinely don't. I think that NHL GMs are pretty self-interested as a rule and don't do things unless they think it'll be good for their team and, resultingly, themselves. I don't think they'd be where they are if they were the kind of people who got carried up in stories over actual results. That's not to suggest that they're always right but rather that when they're wrong, they're wrong as a result of either genuine lapses of judgement or acting out of self-preservation.   

I also think they can look at a situation and feel that they can control the situation and some suffer from hubris just the same as any other person in power and that can lead to mistakes.  Agreed, those aren't the signs of a great GM, but not every GM in the NHL is a great GM.

Again, GMs can make bad decisions, sometimes in the heat of things and sometimes carefully considered but just like when someone presents a trade where the rationale is "Well, the other team might agree to it because some GMs are stupid" I tend not to be overly concerned with something like that happening until there's anything lending weight to it beyond just it being theoretically possible.
   
Offer sheets don't typically happen, but the Matthews situation may not be a typical situation, similar to what we saw with Tavares in the summer.  Superstar UFA's don't usually leave their teams either, but this summer it happened because of the situation that the Islanders are in.   

Leaving aside that "one unlikely thing happened, therefore another entirely unrelated unlikely thing is somehow more plausible" is not a super-solid argument I think this is a misreading of the situation. The difference between Tavares leaving his team and the guys who leave their teams every year, and good UFAs leave their teams every year, is one of degree. Is Tavares the best free agent to ever leave his team? Eh, probably not. He's somewhere in the top 5. "Superstar" isn't an actual term with tangible meaning and absent that good free agents leave their teams. Parise, Niedermayer, Chara, Hossa, Richards...it happens. 6-7 times at least since the cap, which basically means every other year. It's not Halley's comet.

Conversely there is no list of guys beyond a handful of pretty minor players who've been offer-sheeted without their teams matching because the terms offered weren't enough of a poison pill. It didn't happen with Kessel, it didn't happen with O'Reilly, it didn't happen with Weber...if it happened with Matthews it would effectively be unprecedented.

Again, and again and again, year after year after year. GMs, some good and some bad and all with agendas come to pretty much the same conclusion on RFA's. The same just isn't true with really good UFA's.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 10:19:53 PM »

That sort of thing has been said about Matthews since basically the day he was drafted and, honestly, I've responded to it enough.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 10:03:42 PM »
Well, I never said it would be a great idea.  I can just see a scenario where a GM thinks it would be a coup to get Matthews on his team, so he would offer sheet Matthews and see what would happen.

Well, if it eases that concern I genuinely don't think NHL GMs think that way. I think most of them know their own job and continued employment in the league has way more to do with making good decisions for their teams than
it does with scoring coups.

To that end, I just don't think the number exists for a team where it makes sense to offer it to Matthews, sacrifice the picks and then try to build a champion where it somehow doesn't make sense for the Leafs to match, keep their picks and try to build a champion. That's why offer sheets don't happen.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 06:00:12 PM »
Don't disagree. I'm just saying this hopefully uncontroversial thing: the longer the Leafs look like the 2007-9 Penguins or the 2013-15 Hawks, the better.

My only objection is just that I don't think a team can look like those Hawks teams anymore. We're not going to have Keith/Hossa equivalents.

I meant more in terms of having a mix of elite talent and good depth.

Right and I'm saying that a big part of that being possible was having Keith and Hossa signed to contracts you can no longer sign players to.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 03:28:50 PM »
So replace Arizona with New York Rangers.  To a degree I was parroting something that Maguire said on the radio this morning, where he said "If I am Arizona, and Matthews is not signed, I offer him whatever he wants next year as an RFA to come play with us.  Sure the Leafs probably match, but take the chance.  At the very least you throw a wrench in to their plans."

Consider the source. There's a reason that despite his efforts Maguire has failed to get a GM job.

Matthews at the Max will be hard to build around for anyone but the Leafs, who'd be the only team who could do it without having to give up 4 first round picks, would be the best situated to do it. I don't think it makes any real sense, financial or competitive, to do that for any team.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 03:22:07 PM »
Don't disagree. I'm just saying this hopefully uncontroversial thing: the longer the Leafs look like the 2007-9 Penguins or the 2013-15 Hawks, the better.

My only objection is just that I don't think a team can look like those Hawks teams anymore. We're not going to have Keith/Hossa equivalents.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 03:03:22 PM »
I agree. Bridging Nylander gets them through the worst of it (Marleau, but also Andersen) and gives them the flexibility to extend Gardiner, unless he wants an open-market deal (5.5-6 vs 7).

Only becomes a (potential) problem if Marner and Matthews also want bridges.

I don't agree on the Andersen part. I don't see how they get an equivalent starting goalie for less than $5M.

I don't necessarily disagree but I don't know if we have any strong comparisons to establish what the cost would be for a starting goalie who'd never hit .920 SV% in that role.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 02:45:58 PM »
Can't say I've ever heard anyone suggest Scottsdale and Phoenix don't have the finer aspects of Big City Life??  Assume you know none of the Coyotes live in Glendale.

With apologies to Herman:

Lol

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 02:35:25 PM »
What's market for Matthews after a 4/5 year bridge? $16m? Nylander at $12, Marner at the same... I mean, long-term market value contracts for stars ended up being a problem for the Hawks, didn't it? At the very least, their margin for error gets a lot tighter, and they'll have to keep turning over complementary players and replacing them with later and later picks.

That all may be but sometimes I sort of think that absent a few possibilities here or there, I think the idea that any team can sign their big talent and still be a serious, top of the league contender for more than a few years is probably unlikely.

Or, conversely, "contending" is going to be about teams ether built on the Pittsburgh model of elite talent but so-so depth or the Nashville model of solid depth but not so much in the way of elite talent.

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