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Messages - Nik the Trik

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Always remember that odds are set to encourage betting, not reflect reality.

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General NHL News & Views / Re: 2017-2018 NHL Thread
« on: Today at 08:28:55 AM »
Goalies are playing longer now though, right?  Not Bower old, but still.

Lundqvist is 36, Rinne 35...Luongo is 39, but he's hitting a wall.

Can you believe that Tuukka Rask is 31 !?!

Is that actually a new development? Seems to me like top level goalies have always hung on around that long. Hasek, Brodeur, Cujo, Belfour, Vernon...

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General NHL News & Views / Re: 2017-2018 NHL Thread
« on: Yesterday at 12:00:07 PM »
I actually forgot his new AAV was $10.5mil. It's not even really a front-loaded contract either, he'll still be making $7.5mil at the age of 38.

Thing is, I really do think he has the potential to be the most impactful player in the entire NHL in a given year. But between injuries and age there's a real question as to whether or not he'll even play one year at that level. 

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General NHL News & Views / Re: 2017-2018 NHL Thread
« on: Yesterday at 11:48:45 AM »

Yoiks.

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NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 02:01:40 PM »
I used to be in the "sign them all for 8 years!" camp, but I've come down to 6 probably being the sweet spot. Especially now that it's clear Nylander will be staying a winger. Just not sure it'll be worth it to pay a premium to get those extra 2 years. If you can save say $1.5mil on both Nylander and Marner by going 6 instead of 8 I probably do that and invest the money into the D. I'd consider going down to even 5 but it'd have to be one heck of a team-friendly contract.

6 years is still a long time for a contract. Who knows what the cap landscape is going to look like in 2024/2025.

We're getting a little off topic here but I still think you're assuming way more team control than exists in this situation.

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NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 01:03:57 PM »
I'd be comfortable going 6 years. These are his peers now from his draft year:

Larkin $6.1mil AAV x 5
Ehlers $6mil AAV x 7
Pastrnak $6.66mil AAV x 6

To me the Larkin contract also shows that the $6mil-ish mark set by guys like Forsberg, Barkov, Scheifele, Monahan hasn't really changed much in the past few years despite the cap going up.

Comfortable as in you wouldn't want to go lower or comfortable as in you wouldn't want to go higher?

I've said this before but I really think the question for Nylander will be to what extent he wants to let Babcock's decisions re: his play influence his pay.

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NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 11:59:33 AM »
Could help keep Nylander's cap hit below $7mil as well, since even though he's done it 2 years in a row his career high in points is a shade lower (61).

If they want to sign him for a similar term, sure.

Although at this point I'm sort of warming to that idea.

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Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 10, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »

FWIW, I thought Bracco might have been the answer to that question WIGWAL put out in the armchair GM thread.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 09, 2018, 10:10:33 AM »
Quote from: herman link=topic=514.msg333100#msg3331het00 date=1533749742
Would you be able to share some examples?

I'm sort of being facetious but as you're well aware there's really no way to avoid the sort of old school-new school divide between the Leafs' previous regime and the one that seemed to be in place when the Leafs brought in guys like Shanahan and Dubas.

Because a huge chunk of the debate in the hockey media over the last decade or so has been about these competing philosophies I think there were quite a few people who so wanted their beliefs validated that they were willing to pre-approve the new front office and give them credit before it was due. The flip side being the old schoolers wanting to take shots at it and give more credit to who they saw as their ideological horses like Lamoriello and Hunter.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 08, 2018, 11:09:40 AM »
Is it Shanahan related, or is it more Bell/Rogers owning the team related? I'm not saying there's a nefarious conspiracy, but it would make sense for a media conglomerate to curate their message about a business property. It definitely appeared to 'stabilize' around Shanahan.

I don't really think it's either. I think that what happened was that certain things the new management team did, whether cynically or not, appealed to a lot of the new breed of media and there isn't anyone in the world who doesn't like being told they're pretty.

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Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:37:09 AM »
I don't disagree here; at the same time, who is in charge of what you read and listen to?

I think that's a more complicated question than you think, especially now that there's massive overlap between people who are ostensibly the critical media and game coverage. Someone out there may not like a Damian Cox or Elliotte Friedman or whoever but if they're just consuming the games themselves or watching Sportsnet generally they're bound to hear from all manner of people that they may not personally hold in high regard. It's one of the many thorny issues in wrapping up rights-holders and analysis in one(or two) conglomerates.

But even in the pre-internet age I think that being a savvy media consumer in a local market meant paying attention to things even if they weren't necessarily in your wheel house. Reading Cox or Strachan might not have been your cup of tea but being a Leafs-focused columnist at one of the city's dailies was a big deal and their opinions informed and often created the discussion around the team. Besides, if you were reading the paper you may as well read the whole damn paper.

I realize that the modern trend is to be selective in the media you consume to the point that you only see/read/hear the people you like or who do their jobs the way you approve of but I think that sort of devalues the communal nature of being a sports fan.

Again, I don't disagree. Are we still talking about Hofford's hyperbole here, or more of a general zeitgeist thing?

I was making sort of a separate point about something I've seen a lot of since Shanahan took over that I don't really think we saw before.

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Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:16:03 AM »
Which is why discussion boards like these (and twitter/reddit/facebook moreso) exist, right? It's not just media though: some of our best discussions here unfortunately spawned from really bad takes that were doubled down on for months.

I've never really thought of the purpose of a place like this to be to fact check the media, even if media criticism is a part of what we inevitably discuss. We can still expect more from the people paid to write and talk about this stuff.

But again, there's a wide range of difference between a bad or wrong take and what I'm talking about. Saying in February that the Leafs wouldn't sign Tavares or whatever was wrong, sure, and saying that they would or might was more correct. Saying that they should already get the credit for having done it though is bordering on the insane.

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Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 09:58:35 AM »
Isn't sports media incentivized to take a stand one way or another? Wait and see doesn't generate attention/clicks the way being right (or being super wrong) does.

To the extent that all media is incentivized towards hot takes and sensationalism, sure. It's still, you know, dumb.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 10:38:38 PM »
These are standard Sydney (AU) prices. Not cheap but nothing unusual.

I don't know if things have changed since my time there but as I recall tipping wasn't as customary in Australia as it is here. So those prices are going to be in addition to a 15-20% gratuity at least.

But in general, I agree. If this is a good bar then those prices are pretty standard for good bars in downtown Toronto. That said I have some pretty strong suspicions that in addition to being fairly expensive, this place is also going to be pretty generic.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 11:58:05 AM »

I think my favourite thing might be the wine list having Wayne Gretzky's, Mike Weir's and Bob McCown's vineyards represented. Clearly making choices in service of the food.

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