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Messages - Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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1
I find it hard to believe that there isn't more relevant mainstream individual stats for goalies than Save% and GAA. So much help is given to goalies on teams that have defense that can limit true chances, keep shots visible and to the outside, etc... those metrics could almost be considered a team defensive stat than for a goaltender.

My eye test last year was that Anderson was probably the team's MVP last season. He won them games they had no business winning, and the defense regularly gave up grade A scoring chances at critical times in the games. Yes, they probably overplayed him a bit. But the games they lost in the playoffs were a team losses, not gifts from Freddie, unless the expectation is that he stands on his head every single night.

Yeah, he was pretty bad in Games 1 and 2 against BOS but the whole team was beyond awful.  For all my caterwauling about Gardiner in G7 the other day you can probably throw that one in the same pile.

Those were 3 horriblehorriblehorrible road playoff games.  In a word, they were horriblow.

2
I think Andersen is a very good goalie but he suffererd a bit from fatigue down the stretch and into the playoffs. If Leafs can get a backup to play 25-30 games it'll go a long way to having Andersen fresh when the games count.

I just had a quick glance at NHL.com stats, and according to them, Andersen played the 3rd most games of any goalie in the league at 66.  This was third only to a tie between Hellebuyck and Talbot at 67 a piece.

Also, Andersen's save % took a pretty steep nosedive into .88 territory in March, which was well below the .91-.92 he was maintaining for most of the season, save a garbage October. 

So there might be some evidence of fatigue there, and most of the starters in the league (the good ones anyway) were 50+ games.  Having said that, 12 goalies played 60 or more.

So maybe there is some value in resting Andersen an extra 5-10 games over last season, given his drop off in March.  What kind of surprises me is that Babcock didn't play McElhinney more often, because he was actually pretty damn good.  Maybe he was injured, and they didn't want to aggravate something, I don't know.  It just didn't make much sense to ride Andersen so hard, they were in a comfortable playoff position.

More than a few of Babcock's lineup choices were inscrutable.

If McElhinney doesn't have his trust, then they need to get someone who does, because I agree, Andersen needs more time off.  I would even venture to say, in the league as it is now, it is more tiring to play goal than it was when Brodeur was playing essentially every game.  The pace is much faster, I'm guessing there is more over-the-royal-road passing, there's more puck-tracking (or whatever that techniques is called) etc.

Would Babs trust Sparks?  Who knows.

3
General NHL News & Views / Re: Russians in the NHL
« on: July 18, 2018, 11:14:08 PM »
I don't not know what you aren't talking about.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 07:29:47 PM »
Which it is -- except in an artificial world where particular one-game samples, in this case elimination games, are the keys to the whole reason you compete in the first place.  In that artificial world, those particular one-games do have an importance that no amount of  statistical counterargument can completely nullify.

Only if there's a reason to think that it's an inherent issue rather than a one-game sample which can swing wildly. But that notion is completely undercut by what we actually saw. Gardiner has played in elimination games before and played well in elimination games before. The idea that he can't, that playing badly in that game is indicative of some sort of deficiency to be concerned with going forward, simply has no legitimate case.

And absent that case to be made, this is "We should be open to trading him because he played badly in that one game" regardless of when that game was.

Has he in fact played well in elimination games before?  Can't recall G6 against Washington.  In any event, since we haven't won the Cup he by definition hasn't played spectacularly well enough in elimination games to offset the recency bias of his spectacularly bad game against Boston.

I'm not defending people who say he should be traded solely because of that one game.  I am defending the idea that people are not being irrational when they use that game as part of a larger argument to trade him, which is what PPP wants to squelch.  Whether such arguments are persuasive overall, or not, is a whole other debate that's separate from the what I'm talking about here.

Game 7 wasn’t the only elimination game in the series.

Good point.  The "last game of series"?

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 01:35:59 PM »
Which it is -- except in an artificial world where particular one-game samples, in this case elimination games, are the keys to the whole reason you compete in the first place.  In that artificial world, those particular one-games do have an importance that no amount of  statistical counterargument can completely nullify.

Only if there's a reason to think that it's an inherent issue rather than a one-game sample which can swing wildly. But that notion is completely undercut by what we actually saw. Gardiner has played in elimination games before and played well in elimination games before. The idea that he can't, that playing badly in that game is indicative of some sort of deficiency to be concerned with going forward, simply has no legitimate case.

And absent that case to be made, this is "We should be open to trading him because he played badly in that one game" regardless of when that game was.

Has he in fact played well in elimination games before?  Can't recall G6 against Washington.  In any event, since we haven't won the Cup he by definition hasn't played spectacularly well enough in elimination games to offset the recency bias of his spectacularly bad game against Boston.

I'm not defending people who say he should be traded solely because of that one game.  I am defending the idea that people are not being irrational when they use that game as part of a larger argument to trade him, which is what PPP wants to squelch.  Whether such arguments are persuasive overall, or not, is a whole other debate that's separate from the what I'm talking about here.

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 01:14:30 PM »
The subject here is Gardiner and PPP's attempt to just cut off discussion of trading him.  Articles like that are at best disingenuous if the author thinks that a flood of analytics is going to simply override the fact that the player had his worst game of the season at the worst possible time.

Andersen was just as bad as Gardiner in that game (and had a worse playoffs on the whole) and nobody has even remotely talked about moving him.

PPP could write the same kind of article about him and my argument would still apply.  And yes, Andersen was worse than Gardiner in that series.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 01:11:40 PM »
Would you?

No. I want the team to get as deep in the playoffs as they can. That's why I generally think it's good to have 50 point defensemen kicking around.

So long as they don't blow it in G7s.  Which he may well never do again, in which case, as I said, there's no more reason at all to call for trading him.

All players have the capacity to have bad games. As busta has pointed out though Gardiner was A) not as bad as you're making it out and B) instrumental in the team getting there in the first place.

Gardiner is absolutely a guy who will help a ton in some games and much less in others. But the trade-off is that someone else might be steadier from game to game but less likely to be a major contributor to a win.

Unless you're arguing that Gardiner has something inherent in him that makes him bad in big games, which has no basis in fact, then you're arguing that you'd rather go with someone who is less likely to help the Leafs get to that game 7. Which, you know, your call but it's pretty reasonable for people like PPP to not see it that way.

The point of my comment is not to debate Gardiner's value.  It was to criticize the PPP article, and others like it, that say it's completely irrational to latch onto the one-game sample.  Which it is -- except in an artificial world where particular one-game samples, in this case elimination games, are the keys to the whole reason you compete in the first place.  In that artificial world, those particular one-games do have an importance that no amount of  statistical counterargument can completely nullify.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:57:44 PM »
Would you?

No. I want the team to get as deep in the playoffs as they can. That's why I generally think it's good to have 50 point defensemen kicking around.

So long as they don't blow it in G7s.  Which he may well never do again, in which case, as I said, there's no more reason at all to call for trading him.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:55:28 PM »
That is a wonderful article and whatnot, but the fact is that he was all-caps AWFUL in the one game where it counted most.  So no, PPP, people aren't going to seriously stop criticizing him and wanting to trade him until he is not awful in a G7-type situation.

The whole team was awful in that game. They all basically disappeared after the first period. Only Gardiner gets singled out for it. Yes, he was bad, and he was victimized (by the Bruins and by some shaky goaltending), but, the amount of blame he gets for that game is disproportionate to his actual impact.

The subject here is Gardiner and PPP's attempt to just cut off discussion of trading him.  Articles like that are at best disingenuous if the author thinks that a flood of analytics is going to simply override the fact that the player had his worst game of the season at the worst possible time.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:52:15 PM »
OK, right, Gardiner is irreplaceable, the linchpin to ... getting to G7 and then getting beat?

Would you be happier if they'd been knocked out in 6?

Would you?

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:42:47 PM »
That is a wonderful article and whatnot, but the fact is that he was all-caps AWFUL in the one game where it counted most.  So no, PPP, people aren't going to seriously stop criticizing him and wanting to trade him until he is not awful in a G7-type situation.

And when he gets traded, they will wonder why we can't even make it to Game 7 in Round 1.

OK, right, Gardiner is irreplaceable, the linchpin to ... getting to G7 and then getting beat?

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:37:36 PM »
That is a wonderful article and whatnot, but the fact is that he was all-caps AWFUL in the one game where it counted most.  So no, PPP, people aren't going to seriously stop criticizing him and wanting to trade him until he is not awful in a G7-type situation.

13
Well done. Now you'll have another reason to be up in the middle of the night besides watching the Leafs play.

Give little Wendel a hug from all of us.

14
General NHL News & Views / Re: Ray Emery Passes Away
« on: July 15, 2018, 11:35:11 PM »
Police are still confirming the cause of death, but reports surfaced that it was presumed drowning.

Rather unfortunate choice of words there.

Ian Mendes on tsn has an interesting retrospective on Emery's time in Ottawa.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: John Tavares is a Maple Leaf
« on: July 15, 2018, 10:38:33 PM »
Islanders really not happy about Tavares leaving.  One of them penned a letter, messy break up style.

https://www.bardown.com/isles-fan-pens-letter-to-tavares-in-the-form-of-a-breakup-and-isles-nation-is-praising-the-accuracy-1.1139202

Those games in New York could get tense.

That was quite the self-contradictory ramble.

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