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Messages - Significantly Insignificant

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 10:41:04 PM »
Well, I never said it would be a great idea.  I can just see a scenario where a GM thinks it would be a coup to get Matthews on his team, so he would offer sheet Matthews and see what would happen.

Well, if it eases that concern I genuinely don't think NHL GMs think that way. I think most of them know their own job and continued employment in the league has way more to do with making good decisions for their teams than
it does with scoring coups.

To that end, I just don't think the number exists for a team where it makes sense to offer it to Matthews, sacrifice the picks and then try to build a champion where it somehow doesn't make sense for the Leafs to match, keep their picks and try to build a champion. That's why offer sheets don't happen.

I think GM's can fall under the power of a narrative just the same as any one else.  I also think they can look at a situation and feel that they can control the situation and some suffer from hubris just the same as any other person in power and that can lead to mistakes.  Agreed, those aren't the signs of a great GM, but not every GM in the NHL is a great GM.

The above combined with the unique situation that Matthews presents, potentially the second best player in the league, Toronto's need to fit 3 superstars and one potential super star under the cap, a second superstar also in his RFA year, could lead to this perfect storm where someone takes a run because they feel that after they add Matthews, they'll be able to build around them because they have signed some college free agent that is good, or they have some prospects ready to make the jump, and with Matthews in the fold, the picks they are giving up won't be nearly as good as Matthews on the team.  Again, I am not saying any of this is right, or what I would do as a GM, but I could see a GM thinking along these lines.     

Offer sheets don't typically happen, but the Matthews situation may not be a typical situation, similar to what we saw with Tavares in the summer.  Superstar UFA's don't usually leave their teams either, but this summer it happened because of the situation that the Islanders are in.   

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 09:07:45 PM »
So replace Arizona with New York Rangers.  To a degree I was parroting something that Maguire said on the radio this morning, where he said "If I am Arizona, and Matthews is not signed, I offer him whatever he wants next year as an RFA to come play with us.  Sure the Leafs probably match, but take the chance.  At the very least you throw a wrench in to their plans."

Consider the source. There's a reason that despite his efforts Maguire has failed to get a GM job.

Matthews at the Max will be hard to build around for anyone but the Leafs, who'd be the only team who could do it without having to give up 4 first round picks, would be the best situated to do it. I don't think it makes any real sense, financial or competitive, to do that for any team.

Well, I never said it would be a great idea.  I can just see a scenario where a GM thinks it would be a coup to get Matthews on his team, so he would offer sheet Matthews and see what would happen.  Now, this is based on the hype that is out there right now.  If his production continues to be compared to the production of Gretzky and Lemieux, then I think that this is a scenario that could happen.  If he comes back down to earth a little, and finishes the season with 40 goals and 70 points, then it probably becomes less likely.   

(As an aside, what is so special about the first 7 games of a season?  Why is starting a season with consecutive multi-point games any different than putting up 16 points in 7 games in January?  In some ways I think that is more special, because the games to start the season are usually a little loser defensively)

Also, I should have clarified that I did not think that Matthews would seek it out.  Of the three though, I do think that the one who would be the most likely to receive an offer sheet would be Matthews, hence the term worry.  Not worry in the sense that I am losing sleep over it, more worry in the sense that if I was Dubas, and I was prioritizing who to get under contract because I just don't want the hassle of dealing with an offer sheet, The Matthews contract would be at the top of the list.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 03:23:29 PM »
Matthews to me is the one you need to worry about.  If he goes out and scores 70 goals, and has over 100 points and leads the team in scoring, then he could very well walk in to Dubas's office and say "I want 5 years and I want the max percentage of the cap." and there really isn't a whole lot you can do about it, because I imagine a team like Arizona would be willing to do that. 

I've still never understood why people thought that. Lets leave aside that Matthews has never come across as some sort of Country mouse who would rather be back home in Glendale(the profiles of him definitely present a  guy who likes the finer aspects of big city life) it doesn't really make sense for a team that's probably working with an internal cap like Arizona.

So replace Arizona with New York Rangers.  To a degree I was parroting something that Maguire said on the radio this morning, where he said "If I am Arizona, and Matthews is not signed, I offer him whatever he wants next year as an RFA to come play with us.  Sure the Leafs probably match, but take the chance.  At the very least you throw a wrench in to their plans."

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 01:55:02 PM »
James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million.   

I hear ya. I guess it depends on the parameters of the deal. Best case for the Leafs in my opinion would be 8 years at $6.5m which I thought was a fair target in the offseason.

If they can get Willy at $7m or $7.5m on an 8 year deal, I still think thatíll be better than what the number will be two years from now.

The Leafs might have to get creative in the interim.

Exactly. How is $7-8mil now worse than $10+mil long term 3yrs from now going forward? Maybe they're betting on the arbitrator not giving him that much?

Because they will have the space to absorb that 10 million.  You have to accept the premise though that the Leafs are going to be top heavy.  If that is the approach they are taking, and they are building this team around those 4, then the reality of the situation is that those 4 are going to take up a sizeable chunk of the cap.  If that is the reality, then you need to get out from under the Marleau contract so that you can make that happen.  I'm looking at it from a perspective of having Marner, Nylander, Matthews, and Tavares each, signed for more than 10 million going forward. 

Matthews to me is the one you need to worry about.  If he goes out and scores 70 goals, and has over 100 points and leads the team in scoring, then he could very well walk in to Dubas's office and say "I want 5 years and I want the max percentage of the cap." and there really isn't a whole lot you can do about it, because I imagine a team like Arizona would be willing to do that. 

Also, I wonder in there are future ideas about what the players are going to bargain for in the next CBA.  For example, what if the players put forth the notion of escalator clauses in their contracts.  In such a case, the deal is negotiated out as a percentage of the teams cap space moving forward year to year, with a base amount so that if the cap declines, the salary never gets below a certain point.  It would mean that rather than reporting salaries as a flat rate, you would report them as a percentage.  This would get around the tag up rule. 

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 17, 2018, 12:44:55 PM »
James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million.   

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs 2018/2019 Schedule in 10 game chunks
« on: October 14, 2018, 09:55:02 PM »
Weird.  Their goals against was almost 6,5,4,3,2.  Let's see what happens against the Kings.
I ain't making any predictions at all, I am so passed those days

In the words of Jeff Goldblum "It's a countdown."

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Auston Matthews
« on: October 14, 2018, 09:08:03 PM »
I don't mind any interview where the player takes the time to thank the interviewer by their name at the end of it.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs 2018/2019 Schedule in 10 game chunks
« on: October 14, 2018, 09:01:34 PM »
Weird.  Their goals against was almost 6,5,4,3,2.  Let's see what happens against the Kings.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Auston Matthews
« on: October 13, 2018, 03:07:12 PM »
Given your druthers, would you rather have Matthews score 60 - 70 goals but end up with less than 100 points, or would you rather have him score around 40 goals but end up over 100 points?

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Morgan Rielly
« on: October 10, 2018, 07:52:23 PM »
Morgan had 1 point in the first game, 2 points in the second game, 3 points in the third game, and 4 points in the fourth.

Quick, figure out how many points he finishes with.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs 2018/2019 Schedule in 10 game chunks
« on: October 10, 2018, 05:37:48 PM »


The Leafs are 3 - 0 in games where you don't predict a win  :D.
I really have to refrain from that Detroit game tomorrow cause I have thoughts about it

We are all thinking it.  Matthews shot versus Berniers glove hand.  We all know how we hope that plays out.  We just aren't saying it.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs 2018/2019 Schedule in 10 game chunks
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:41:54 PM »


The Leafs are 3 - 0 in games where you don't predict a win  :D.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: 2018/2019 Goal Predictions
« on: October 10, 2018, 03:40:58 PM »
So, I did a quick calculation. The averages of the predictions were:

Matthews 50
Tavares 39

At current pace players are on course for:

Matthews 144
Tavares 123

Marner only on course for a medicore 41

Though I'm not sure that's sustainable.

Yeah, no way Marner hits that.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 08, 2018, 08:57:55 PM »
Lol
Nice rebuttal.  I feel overwhelmed by facts right now.

The truth of the matter is that you are a slightly more knowledgable and somewhat less obnoxious version of Nik the Trik.  You like to toot your own horn.  You rarely if ever post in agreement with *anyone* on here.  I can also see how someone like you would not see the importance of team chemistry.  You're probably the type of person that would disrupt it.

Itís amusing reading your constant posts attacking others and acting holier than thou over and over again.  It really is.
Of course, complain about my complaining about the bull**** instead of the bull**** itself.  Nice.  That would be like telling someone not to complain after you punch them in the face.

You can call it holier-than-thou if you want.  I personally believe in treating others with respect.  That goes for them as a person and also their opinions and POV.  I have no issue with herman and nik the trik disagreeing with me.  I expect it quite frankly.  It's just how they roll.  They don't just do it with me.  Other people also.  My issue is with the whole "LOL" comment.  The mockery.  Want to disagree with me?  Fine.  But that kind of bull**** is completely stupid, yet it's not only condoned on here but your little gang of trolls works together to perpetuate it.  It's like you guys are giving each other virtual high fives and talking down to anyone you don't agree with.  Pathetic.

What we've got here is failure to communicate. Some people you just can't reach. So you get what we had here last week, which is the way he wants it. Well, he gets it. I don't like it any more than you people.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 08, 2018, 11:06:19 AM »
1st, 2nd, 3rd round picks would be the compensation.

Not a bad return.  :-\

That's what Tomas Tatar got. 

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