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Messages - herman

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: Yesterday at 01:59:10 PM »

Brain health!

2
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: Yesterday at 11:03:56 AM »
PPP: 13. Carl Grundstrom

Grundstrom - Tavares - Marner 2020

Bigger/heavier Soshnikov is probably the most apt description of his style of play.

3
61 points, 49 points, and 53 points, the past 3 seasons.  5th, 11th, and 7th in Norris voting those 3 years, and is the team's captain...all while carrying a cap hit of $4m.

How is he overrated?

He's not at all bad. I just don't want defensemen shooting from the point as often as he does, because that takes away puck touches from your more potent shooters. People don't seem to know how to gauge good defense other than by how much they score, and to a degree that is very valuable, but it doesn't tell us much about how they play without the puck (which is their primary function).

4
Something might be up:

https://www.bardown.com/a-leafs-prospect-s-social-media-activity-has-fans-jumping-to-conclusions-1.1157984

This is why sites like PPP and TLN post their summer rankings day by day.

I'm ranking Nielsen higher now for this masterful troll job.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: John Tavares is a Maple Leaf
« on: August 15, 2018, 12:49:22 PM »
There is a downside to signing Tavares that I did not consider. 

At some point throughout the season I will be torn between whether I want Babcock to put Nylander, Matthews and Marner together for multiple shifts to see what happens or to put Nylander, Tavares, and Marner together for multiple shifts to see what happens.

We might see a more skewed version of last season, where certain lines were leaned on for certain roles. In particular I'm talking about score effects on TOI (and thus production).

When we were leading: Kadri and 4th line got lots of minutes (woo! another empty for Marleau). When we were chasing, Matthews and Bozak lines got all the shifts. Last season, we led a lot.

This season, I think we will be leading very often. Without Babcock's usual stalwarts of gudness to deploy, we'll see a lot of Kadri and Tavares I think (or Tavares and Lindholm/4C).

6
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: August 15, 2018, 12:38:22 PM »
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

No. Sorry.

7
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 15, 2018, 09:18:30 AM »

8
EDIT: Wait, am I thinking of Roman Josi?

Funny, the first thing I thought when I read your post initially was that Josi is more overrated than Ellis.

I poked through some data, and yeah, I was thinking of Josi this whole time.

They're like boy band members: Subban's the famous one, Eckholm is the actually good one, Ellis is the (really) short one, and Josi is the overrated one.

Nashville's defense as a whole does tend to shoot a lot.

9
Their scoring numbers prior to this season were very close, and Ellis actually scored at a higher pace this past season too despite not hitting the 50 mark (32 points in 44 games). Add in the fact that he's a righty and he kills penalties, it's pretty easy to make the case that Ellis is the more valuable player.

And while I've talk about how important it was for Gardiner to hit the 50 point mark myself, if I was Dubas I'd point out that he did it in a season where more defenceman than usual did it. 19 defencemen scored 50 or more points last season, usually that number hovers around 10.

That's a fair point. I do think Ellis is the most overrated of the 4 Nashville defenders though. He's Brent Burnsian in his propensity for shooting from a distance. Other than his shot metrics, his passing and entry stats are not Gardiner level.

If Dubas and co. can convince Gardiner that 6M is fair value for him, then I'm all for it.

EDIT: Wait, am I thinking of Roman Josi?

10
This contract makes me slightly more optimistic that we can get Gardiner re-signed at $6mil.

Ellis hasn't crested 50 pts. And he's a unicorn RHD. Playing for a team with minimal state income tax.

11
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 14, 2018, 12:18:45 PM »
TLN's top 20 kicked off yesterday, so I'm back filling here:
20. Andrew Nielsen
19. Mac Hollowell

Note, TLN does its rankings by Calder Trophy eligibility.

12
6.25! Wow, he must like Nashville.

No NTC/NMC... he'll be a hell of a trade chip at this cap hit.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 14, 2018, 11:09:38 AM »
Im sure Im not alone in saying this, but I can't remember a time when I actually wished a beautiful summer was over. Lets get to start of the NHL season and the 1st Leaf game already!!!
I'm very curious to see how these pieces are going to fit together. 

If nothing else, it's going to be a very interesting October.

Longest feeling off-season ever. If the Jays weren't so clearly accidentally tanking, this might be easier, but Dubas getting the reins and adding Tavares to the big Three is a lot of hype to wait on.

14
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 14, 2018, 10:44:50 AM »
I am very surprised the Leafs ended up this high on the list considering all our top eggs are in the NHL, but at the same time, I am very insulted that they are rated lower than Montreal and Chicago.

The fact that he still considers Johnsson a prospect is a big boost. He alone probably bumped us up 5-ish spots.

For non-subscribers, this is the requirement:
Quote
A player is no longer considered an NHL prospect if he has played more than 25 NHL games in any single season, 50 career NHL games or is older than age 27 as of Sept. 15, 2018. All other players are considered eligible.

Johnsson has 9 regular season games and 6 playoff games.

15
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 14, 2018, 10:23:34 AM »

I am very surprised the Leafs ended up this high on the list considering all our top eggs are in the NHL, but at the same time, I am very insulted that they are rated lower than Montreal and Chicago.

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