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Messages - Bender

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1
Per the article, Dubas prefers a history of production from forwards and will not be drafting specifically for players that are projected for depth roles (a la Gauthier). The illustration used was Kasperi Kapanen, who was a 20s pick that Dubas targeted in the Kessel trade: he's projected to be a scoring top-6 winger, but if he falls short, the development team has already shifted his floor up into NHL territory by building up a penalty killing prowess. In other words, a floor can be built up, but a talent ceiling can't (or is much more difficult) to push higher.

That sort of feels like cherry picking two isolated examples more than actual evidence of a strong pattern. I don't think either position holds up universally, lots of offensively skilled junior players can't convert into useful bottom 6 types and lots of guys dinged for not having high-end offensive talent coming into the draft develop it later on.

Generally speaking I like the idea of higher ceiling guys and I certainly don't think you should be aiming low with 1st round picks(or 31st overall picks) but a lot of the late 1st/early 2nd round steals are the sorts of "Well, he's got the tools but putting them together is the question" types that Gauthier was.

I didn't feel like Gauthier really had the tools to begin with. I think that point is fair that if a player has not produced in junior there's no point taking a swing hoping that in the best case scenario he ends up being a guy you can pick up via cheap trade or waiver wire.

DeBrincat does seem like a bit of a cherry pick though. I liked him, I would've liked to have taken a flyer on him, but we've seen plenty of small, skilled junior players flame out.

2
NHL Transactions / Re: Domi to MTL for Galchenyuk
« on: Yesterday at 04:21:46 PM »
https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/max-domi-brings-canadiens-alex-galchenyuk/

Berkshire takes a look at what Domi brings over Galchenyuk in the article above.  Mostly, Domi is a better setup man and the Habs lack that outside of Drouin.  He still thinks Arizona won the trade  (Galch is still a better player overall- 30 Goal scorer!) but Domi does address a bit of a need for them.  That they mismanaged the asset and devalued him so much over the past few seasons is pretty atrocious (for a Habs fan anyways... I'm fine with it ;) )

I do think the reaction has been a bit one-sided.  I'd prefer Galchenyuk for sure, but I don't think this is as lopsided as some other recent 1for1 deals.

So they addressed a need at Centre by trading a centre for an inferior winger? Does not compute.

3
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Marlies' Playoff Games
« on: June 15, 2018, 10:39:37 AM »
One thing that sorta stood out to be in what I watched and what I read is that while Liljegren had a good playoffs, he wasn't really leaned on at all. That's somewhat because of the two righties ahead of him (Holl and LoVerde), but I'd like to see him try and take the next step and become a go-to guy with the Marlies before graduating on to the Leafs. There's no need to rush him next season.

Listening to Leafs Geeks' Podcast I didn't realize that he's the youngest D-Man in the league by 18 months. I mean I can see why LoVerde & Holl were leaned on heavier.

4
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: June 14, 2018, 10:56:23 AM »
I wouldn't go too far down this road...many wives that are caring for children are also working part/full time.

I have to think in this case that the there would be some sort of electronic signature that they can chase.

No, I get that. I just find it comical that there's catty infighting in the first place.

5
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: June 14, 2018, 10:41:11 AM »
This situation is really quite shocking.  And one would think that the organization would have handled it internally a long time ago.  I find it hard to believe that this story came out to the media the way it did.  I'm sure there are a lot of disagreements between teammates out there.  But it is very rare for the feuds to become public like this.

They were talking on Overdrive how there have been wives' spats in the past (from O'Neill and McLennan's stories) but back in the day before the internet all that stuff was gossip / face to face encounters.  Some wives would feel superior to others based on their husband's standing on the team etc.  With the Internet and cyber bullying it's taken to an entirely different level.

From what a lot of the supporters are revealing in their own comments, the Karlssons (Melinda in particular) really wanted to keep this out of the public eye, to be dealt with internally as a team (and adults) as you described, sickbeast.

Unfortunately, it crossed into criminality, and those records are public. We generally don't hear about this 'off-the-record' stuff from the beat coverage as they need to maintain relationships and access; I'm sure there is plenty around the league. This particular situation was broken by the Citizen's crime reporter.

I can't believe wealthy housewives don't have anything better to do with their time. Actually, wait a minute....

6
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: The Official TV Thread
« on: June 08, 2018, 11:35:05 AM »

Jesus, Anthony Bourdain died. What a bummer.

Tell me about it! I felt like he was one of the few guys worth watching on TV. Seemed like a stand up guy.

7
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Ontario Election 2018
« on: June 08, 2018, 11:14:53 AM »
He had no money allocated to anything, no budget, no numbers, when the voting started. It's still unfathomable to me that someone would vote for him simply on that basis alone. I mean, can anyone be mad if a promise isn't fulfilled? It's their own freaking fault.

In this election, the PCs could basically have run a wet towel on a stick and won. People were too fed up with the Liberals to elect them, and enough of the electorate either can't align with the NDP or still has trust issues from the Rae days. That's really how he won - he was put into a virtual no-lose situation.

I have to imagine that this is a big part of the problem. The NDP platform budgeted for over a billion less spending annually than the Liberals (over a shorter period of time too, if I'm not mistaken) but there were still Liberal voters who felt the NPD was too extreme. I guess I can understand Conservative voters who essentially didn't have a legitimate alternative in this election but I can't understand Liberal voters who would rather vote Liberal than NDP here.

Just thinking out loud here,

Would the PC party be that much different if Christine Elliott or Caroline Mulroney were the figurehead? I don't know enough about them or if they had costed platforms going into their leadership races, but it sounds like people wanted to get the Libs out, were afraid of the NDP vote, liked their local PC candidate but don't like the Premier.

8
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: Ontario Election 2018
« on: June 05, 2018, 01:21:45 PM »
Thanks Folks.  Personally I like the ranked ballot system better as it keeps my Riding the choice of people in my area.  I know the other suggestion also does that but it increases Govt and we don't need more Govt.
STV all the way, baby!  8)

9
Non-Hockey Chatter / Re: The Donald
« on: May 31, 2018, 11:11:08 AM »
Speaking of pardoning people though...


D’Souza is a right-wing whack who pleaded guilty to violating federal campaign finance laws.

Everything is unfair unless I say it isn't.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: May 31, 2018, 11:09:52 AM »
That's basically what I expected. Still pretty odd that they didn't at least inform Shanny about it.

How is this not a conflict of interest?

11
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Marlies' Playoff Games
« on: May 24, 2018, 04:42:03 PM »
The more I watch Johnsson the more excited I get about his potential, he was an absolute force on the Grundstrom goal and then his wraparound was fantastic.  His passes to Aaltonen in the first games of this series were sublime.

As mentioned before 4th line on Leafs next season Johnsson-Aaltonen-Grundstrom

With JvR gone Johnsson is already looking like our 3rd line LW.  Heck, if I was drawing up a lineup, I think he'd be on the 1st line:

Johnsson - Matthews - Marner
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen
Hyman - Nylander - Brown
Moore - Lindholm - Aaltonen
Leivo
That first line would kill

I would put Grundstrom in there somewhere. I do think we need an upgrade somewhere on the forwards though.... Come on Dubas with some out of the box thinking!

12
I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.
The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

It's a matter of scoring more by committee.  Instead of one player getting 36 goals (JVR), let's say Matthews and Nylander each get more PP time and they score 7-8 goals each more than they would have otherwise. 

Matthews +8
Nylander +7
--------------
15 extra goals

Then you hope that guys like Johnsson and Kapanen can get 10-15 each?
Johnsson + 13
Kapanen + 12
------------------
25 extra goals

Martin and Komarov only combined for 10 goals on the season, replace them with guys that might score 8-10 each, and you have an additional 16-20 goals.

The math can add up with better players on each line.

AM probably scores more by virtue of being healthy and on top PP. I wouldn't be surprised to see him hit close to 50.

13
I honestly think the whole thing with Dubas is either going to go really well or else really badly. It's a real trial by fire for him. He's either going to sink or swim. We'll see. I am cautiously optimistic personally. His stat knowledge is impressive. But there is something to be said for Lou's years of experience running a team. Things like trades and negotiations worry me somewhat with Dubas. We'll see. I was not happy with what Lou did at the end of this season. He should have stocked assets.

It's got to be either one or the other.  Unless the Leafs are just mediocre, which I suppose will be viewed as "really bad".  The problem is, especially with the draft strategy, you need a bit of time and distance to appreciate picks made outside the first round.  You can see that from people tying to evaluate Hunter's draft record.  Outside of the first round picks (and Dermott in round 2), we haven't seen any breakthroughs on the players that Hunter decided on.  Does that mean he did a piss poor job in drafting?  For now it appears that way, but  maybe a few of the players picked later make contributions next season or the year after and we look back and realize Hunter actually did a fairly good job.  The same will apply to Dubas.  People will want to see changes right away, but often times it doesn't work that fast. 

I guess the immediate changes he could make to improve the team for next season is the subtraction of guys like Martin, Komarov, Polak and the Leafs promote from within to give some speedy Marlies a shot.  It'll be interesting to see if he pulls off any signing or trades for players we might not expect who are currently undervalued by the NHL.

The market is going to want to see results fast.  This team had 105 points this season, but lost in round 1.  That's not going to cut it for this upcoming season.  If the team doesn't progress past round 1 again, it'll be viewed as a huge failure and the stories will begin that Dubas didn't do enough to improve the Leafs.  Man he's got a tough job.
The big question is, how are they going to replace JVR's 40 goals? Not to mention Bozak.

Bozak ain't getting any younger and he was a bit of a defensive liability. Not really worried about him. You replace JVR by committee, hopefully through Andreas Johnsson and Carl Grundstrom (I mean, he's got to get more than Komarov). Give Kapanen more minutes higher up in the lineup, a full year of AM with more PP time. Spread the dough that would go to JVR to grab a big fish in free agency.

It won't be easy but I don't think JVR is really all that important. Yeah, lots of goals, but he had a lot of warts to his game. I think if you get a few players who have some pop but are better defensively you're better off.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: May 23, 2018, 10:16:57 AM »
So that Lou Lamoriello guy eh? What a guy!

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: May 22, 2018, 09:50:51 PM »
Can we not have infighting in every other thread? I was in the useless thread and it reads basically the same.

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