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Messages - Frank E

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Today at 06:10:04 PM »
Don't disagree. I'm just saying this hopefully uncontroversial thing: the longer the Leafs look like the 2007-9 Penguins or the 2013-15 Hawks, the better.

My only objection is just that I don't think a team can look like those Hawks teams anymore. We're not going to have Keith/Hossa equivalents.

I meant more in terms of having a mix of elite talent and good depth.

I get that, but I don't even think you can have that if your elite want market $, and you want to keep 4 elite guys.

This whole team building thing has taken a turn here in the past 2 months.  Dubas can't get any of them signed for a team friendly deal, and I think he's going to have to make a decision on one of them...or maybe he signs Nylander to a bridge, but gives Matthews and Marner the big $, and trades Nylander down the road.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: Today at 02:21:39 PM »
James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million.   

I agree. Bridging Nylander gets them through the worst of it (Marleau, but also Andersen) and gives them the flexibility to extend Gardiner, unless he wants an open-market deal (5.5-6 vs 7).

Only becomes a (potential) problem if Marner and Matthews also want bridges.

Is bridging all three really a problem though?  Given it seems they all want market long-term contracts, I'm not sure it's really an issue.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 15, 2018, 07:36:43 PM »
I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

I think the fact that none of them have signed is a better indication that Dubas is going to try his best to negotiate with all three of them for as best as he can do, rather than there being some sort of conspiracy afoot.

I don't think conspiracy is the right word there, unionizing is what I was describing. 

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 15, 2018, 06:26:27 PM »
Just to add to the conversation earlier in one of these threads, I do think Nylander is the one to play chicken with here.  You can't not play chicken with Nylander, then try to with the other 2. The Leafs are setting the bar with Nylander, and if they give in, Matthews and Marner will know to just stick to their high-bar.

I don't personally think that's true. I think that if there was one of the three to play hardball with, it's Marner. First off, I think that if you have Nylander and Matthews signed long term the "Don't you want to play with these guys for the next 7 or 8 years" thing works better if the deals are already worked out. Secondly, by doing it with the guy you sign third, presumably next off-season you increase your chances of being able to use the team success card.

Lastly, and maybe most significantly, Marner figures to have the strongest connection the one unique thing Dubas can really offer which is playing in Toronto.

We'll disagree here because I'm not sure that you can give Nylander a market deal, then give Matthews a market deal, and then try it on with Marner with any reasonable expectations of success, even given the Toronto thing.

I think they're going to play their hand as long as they can with Nylander, but maybe plan B is your way...but I don't think your strategy is plan A.

I think it's obvious the 3 of them are sticking together here, given none of them have signed a deal yet.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 15, 2018, 05:58:20 PM »
And another option that Nik was talking about is just gathering some picks and prospects for Nylander, and maybe then using those when the "good defenseman" market opens up a little more down the road.

This is all under the assumption that Nylander's reported ask of $8m is palatable to some team, and that the return they're willing to give for an $8m Nylander is palatable to Dubas & co.  And I think that's a dubious assumption at best.

Just to add to the conversation earlier in one of these threads, I do think Nylander is the one to play chicken with here.  You can't not play chicken with Nylander, then try to with the other 2. The Leafs are setting the bar with Nylander, and if they give in, Matthews and Marner will know to just stick to their high-bar.

What would be interesting is if Dubas can get Matthews signed shortly here, then Marner.  If the Matthews and Marner camps collude and tell Dubas to get Nylander signed first, then they'll deal afterwards, Dubas is in a bit of a pickle.

I'm hopeful that the Leafs have gamed out these scenarios carefully, because goodness knows these 3 guys' agents sure as hell have spoken to each other about it.  If they all agree that they're sticking together with their "market price" asks, and at this point it looks like this is the case, then the Leafs are probably going to have to make a decision on one of them. 

At this point, it looks like Matthews, Marner, and Nylander, are putting the screws to Dubas, and Dubas hasn't decided what he's going to do yet. 

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 15, 2018, 05:26:09 PM »
I'm not sure why most articles/discussions are trying to find Nylander's equal on defense to come back one-for-one.

I think because it's a pretty fair assumption that the bigger you make a trade the more limited you'll be in terms of trading partners.

I guess that's what I'm saying...why are we/they focused on a one-for-one when really I think a 2 for 1, or 1 for 2, is a much more likely scenario, and especially given the cap implications.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 15, 2018, 04:38:08 PM »
I read that PPP article that herman posted in one of the 46 threads discussing Nylander...anyways, as usual with good players, finding a one-for-one trade would be very difficult.  So, not really surprising.

On that, If they decide that trading Nylander is a thing they need to look into, I'm not adverse to the idea of throwing more at a deal to get a couple of players back.  I'm not sure why most articles/discussions are trying to find Nylander's equal on defense to come back one-for-one.  Maybe Nylander + ?, for a LW and a RHD?




8
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: October 12, 2018, 05:28:18 PM »
We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

If you're looking to trade a forward for a defenseman I don't think you're ever really in a position of strength. Especially not mid-season and dealing an unsigned player who wants a deal that might be hard to swallow(or at least one people assume will have to grow into his deal).

I don't really understand this statement.  Are $8m forwards worth less than $8m defenseman?  I get the unsigned part, but I'm assuming any deal includes the team agreeing to terms with Nylander.

9
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: October 12, 2018, 05:04:30 PM »

If the Leafs were to make a trade of Nylander, I'd really think they'd be better off getting prospects and picks back and then having cap space to add a defenseman.

But they shouldn't trade Nylander, especially not notw.

We always talk about dealing from a position of strength, so do you not think the Leafs are in a position of strength in the forward positions?

I'm not advocating trading Nylander, I'm a little undecided here in October...but I see the following options here to deal with the apparent defense issue:

1.  They need a good defenseman, so they'll need to trade a good forward to get one.
2.  They need a good defenseman,  but they can trade other assets besides a top forward like Nylander to get one.
3.  They don't need another good defenseman at the current prices and cap space available, and besides that, there are some good options coming up internally.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Morgan Rielly
« on: October 10, 2018, 09:36:20 PM »
Morgan had 1 point in the first game, 2 points in the second game, 3 points in the third game, and 4 points in the fourth.

Quick, figure out how many points he finishes with.

I put it at 3403 points.  So Gretzky career plus Wendel Clark career, give or take.

Sounds sustainable.  I'm in. 

11
Babs pointed out that at 5-on-5 they had 19 face-offs in the defensive end as opposed to just 10 in Montreal's

oof...I didn't know it was that lopsided.

12
I hope they do use the better outlet pass this year but I saw an awful lot of those bad stretch passes most of the night against Montreal.

The centerman needs to be in the right position and not being covered to well to use that option.  If those aren't there, then yes, you'll probably continue to see "bad" stretch passes.  But that is what they are being asked to do.

I think that when teams play good proper defense, like the habs did the other night, there isn't any avenue to complete these passes, so we see defenders going to plan B a bit, and carrying it up further than they normally would be comfortable, and that's also when you see them dump it in, once they've gone as far as the blue line.

Then some people complain that they're playing dump and chase.  Unfortunately, that can be the only way to spread out the opposing players when they're jamming up the neutral zone...get the puck past them.

The breakout plays make sense when your forwards get open, but when other teams effectively jam up the neutral zone, and the Leaf forwards don't fight to get open enough, there'll always be issues in completing those neat little neutral zone passing plays.

13
Traditions like never capitalizing the s and the h for sens and habs, these sorts of things are very important.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: October 03, 2018, 06:49:16 PM »
I'd like to chime in here, I'm not sure that Shanahan is necessarily being hypocritical.  I think he might be daring the Nylander camp...calling their bluff.  He's not saying that signing an offer sheet is bad, he's actually saying that maybe Nylander doesn't want to be a TML.  That's not hypocritical, Shanahan obviously didn't care for being a Devil at the time he signed his offer sheet, given the current state of his negotiation.

Shanahan has a lot more information about this negotiation than we do, so I still think that he's responding to some specific statement/position/stance of Nylander's representation.

Yeah, guy. I heard you the first time. Shanahan's responding to something secret and sinister Nylander's camp did, Dubas is responding to Nylander's broken promise of taking a haircut so they can sign Tavares...I'm sure there are all manner of nefarious things Nylander's agents are doing in the dark. I, on the other hand, can only react to what I've got in front of me and Shanahan weighing in on this referencing his supposed selflessness in Detroit and not what he did in New Jersey rings that bell for me no matter what his objective or what Nylander may or may not have done.

I won't refer to you as "guy", because I'll be more respectful today, given the season opener and all, and we've been playing here for years.

But really Shanahan does have a lot of the information that we don't have, so I'm comfortable saying that Shanahan has a lot more to go off on...nothing nefarious, just more information.

Whatever your Dubas statement has to do with what I'm saying, I'm not sure.

And whatever was going on with the Devils and Shanahan's ability to get a deal done with them really may not have anything to do with what's going on today, no matter how many times you want to bring it up.  Maybe we can make comparisons later, if we get more information.

15
Probably more veering towards stupid but dammit one of these days it'll all be worthwhile and pay off

I was up at 5:30 this morning with our 12 month old, which 5 mins later woke up our 3 year old who then wanted breakfast, like, right now.  So I'm likely to fall asleep with a beer in my lap halfway through the second...so you and I, we're good...I've got your back.

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