Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - princedpw

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 118
2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 23, 2018, 10:05:35 PM »
Quote from: mr grieves
But we all agree fair compensation for Nylander is in that $7.5-8m range.

Im not sure we all agree on that one. For an 8 year contract ... maybe.

3
Oh my Matthews.


Anything less than an a hat trick could be viewed as embarrassing.

4
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

I can live with that as a 4th line.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I love Leivo-Kadri-Brown as the 3rd line though.  Especially if Babcock is going to use them in the defensive zone a ton.  Would rather swap all the wingers:

Johnsson - Kadri - Kapanen
Leivo - Lindholm - Brown

I'd like to see

Matthews - Tavares - Marner

as our 4th line.  They can handle a little extra ice.

If we do that then we can run with 4 first-line centers.  One for each line.

5
Johnsson-Lindholm-Kapanen

I can live with that as a 4th line.

Unfortunately, I'm not sure I love Leivo-Kadri-Brown as the 3rd line though.  Especially if Babcock is going to use them in the defensive zone a ton.  Would rather swap all the wingers:

Johnsson - Kadri - Kapanen
Leivo - Lindholm - Brown

I'd like to see

Matthews - Tavares - Marner

as our 4th line.  They can handle a little extra ice.

6
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/matthews-reveals-how-underhill-made-him-a-more-explosive-skater~1491841

A lot of people have noted that Matthews' skating has 'sploded.
I just hope Matthews is 100% healthy all season.

I hate that all tsn “articles” are now videos and they they wont play in the IS

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 16, 2018, 08:58:14 PM »
But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up one’s own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylander’s first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

Or, conversely, it's giving Nylander credit for some of the experience he missed out on because the team held him out of the NHL despite him being ready as they tanked.

Look, I'm not going to read the article but I'm sure Mirtle knows his stuff. He's a professional nerd while I'm just a dedicated amateur. My point has always been that the idea of a "reasonable" ask is pretty varied as there's a lot of data and lots of ways to interpret it. I think you can make a reasonable case for all manner of numbers here. Nylander's making his, which I'm sure he's got a decent argument for, and Dubas is making his. Hopefully they meet somewhere amicably.

I think we agree.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 16, 2018, 07:45:28 PM »

The contracts I keep coming back to as comps are the Scheifele, Mackinnon and Monahan deals and I think when you dig at them they actually support some of what we're hearing about Nylander's ask if a 7-8 year deal is really on the table.

Scheifele signed his 8 year extension at 8.39% of the cap. In today's dollars that's about 6.67 per. Mackinnon(7 years) at 8.63% which is 6.86 per.  Monahan(also 7 years) signed his at 8.73%, or 6.94 per. Sort of interestingly, I think it sorts out nicely as by production over their first three years it's the same order:

Scheifele: 144 points
Mackinnon: 153 points
Monahan: 159 points

Nylander, if you pro-rate his first year out, would have clocked 170 points over his first three seasons.

Anyways, so that means that, per point Monahan got roughly .055% of the cap on his extension, Mackinnon got .056% and Scheifele, who was the only one who signed an 8 as opposed to a 7 year deal, did the best at .058. 

So by using these comps what would Nylander figure to get? Well, at the Monahan rate it's 9.26% of the cap or 7.26 million, use Mackinnon's rate it's 7.52 million and use Scheifele's and it's 7.84 million.


This is a simplification of things but I really think that if Dubas is pushing an 8 year deal than just going by that Scheifele comp the 8 million dollar a year ask probably came from this kind of thinking as opposed to just trying to pin it to the Draisaitl deal. Either way, I think it's tough to look at his first three years and not see that 7-8 million is at the very least a justifiable ask when really looking at the comps.

I think it’s been mentioned, but the Mirtle has an analysis that is backed by a bit more data:

https://theathletic.com/371189/2018/05/29/mirtle-breaking-down-what-william-nylanders-second-contract-should-look-like-for-the-leafs/

It doesn’t include Schiefele but it does have Monahan and MacKinnon.

Mirtle comes out at an average of 7.07 million/year and an average length of 6.6 years with respect to the comparables.

There do seem to be a lot of dimensions to these comparables and no doubt that is a major factor when it comes to the leafs and Nylander settling on a number.  I can’t say I agree completely with Mirtle’s analysis as he includes salaries of different lengths and too many different players.

But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up one’s own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylander’s first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

And of course there are line mates and power play time.

$7 x 6
$8 x 8 ... this feels high


9
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: September 13, 2018, 07:28:31 PM »
Wow. So, let's just sum up. The Sens:

- Didn't get a definite 1st round pick in 2019

- Didn't get a prospect taken in the top 15 or a pick that's likely to be

- Didn't dump the Ryan deal

- Probably won't get two 1sts

I mean, on the one hand, that's not very good. On the other hand I think we all predicted that Ottawa wouldn't do very well here. But on the third hand...if you're a Dallas fan aren't you a bit upset you couldn't beat that?

not to open old wounds, but on the 4th hand, the leafs side of the kessel trade was terrible

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 13, 2018, 12:01:12 AM »
It seems clear that both parties have “some” leverage. If the players had none then they all sign for the minimum salary; if the teams had none, the players would sign for the max available.

In this case, I’d say the leafs have a little more than usual because they have a lot of great forwards, seem like a desirable place for willie to play, and wont actually miss him that much due to their RW depth.  Most analyses Ive sen suggest ~7 is fair for a long term deal, based on comparables. I expect slightly less.

11
Getting Marincin in the lineup makes a lot of sense to me.  Playing Hainsey for the full pk seems like a poor idea.  We need another penalty killer.  Babcock has said that Marincin might be the team's best penalty killer.

How many skaters can a team dress?  Can one dress 7D and 12F?  Playing 7D with Marincin being the designated PK guy + player when the team is ahead would be interesting.

What are people's predictions for the D?  I have no idea what is going to happen on the right side.

12
Ya I don't get it.  Only thing I can think of is Leafs want a bridge deal, Nylander is looking for more term. 

I wouldn't be that surprised if it was the other way around.

Yeah.

13
NHL Transactions / Re: Pacioretty Traded to Vegas
« on: September 10, 2018, 10:23:30 AM »
I'm wondering what this means for Vegas and Karlsson.  Anything to keep Karlsson out of Tampa's hands, especially on a soft deal.

14
General NHL News & Views / Re: 5 Favourite Goals
« on: September 09, 2018, 11:35:55 AM »
Sundin scored a beautiful goal from Alfredson vs Canada where he curls at canada’s blue line, receives the pass, splits the D and goes in alone to score. It’s always in my head.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 07, 2018, 07:19:22 PM »
If the Nylander camp digs in their heels, and they're starting the season, what's the plan "B"...do you trade him or pay him?  Of course, I'm assuming that they're a fair distance apart here. 

I ask because I think that the Nylander deal is really setting the tone for negotiations with a few other pretty important pieces over the next year.

I think the leafs have so much firepower amongst their forwards that they can afford to be very patient and simply wait him out.

Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 118