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Messages - Nik the Trik

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1
NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 02:01:40 PM »
I used to be in the "sign them all for 8 years!" camp, but I've come down to 6 probably being the sweet spot. Especially now that it's clear Nylander will be staying a winger. Just not sure it'll be worth it to pay a premium to get those extra 2 years. If you can save say $1.5mil on both Nylander and Marner by going 6 instead of 8 I probably do that and invest the money into the D. I'd consider going down to even 5 but it'd have to be one heck of a team-friendly contract.

6 years is still a long time for a contract. Who knows what the cap landscape is going to look like in 2024/2025.

We're getting a little off topic here but I still think you're assuming way more team control than exists in this situation.

2
NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 01:03:57 PM »
I'd be comfortable going 6 years. These are his peers now from his draft year:

Larkin $6.1mil AAV x 5
Ehlers $6mil AAV x 7
Pastrnak $6.66mil AAV x 6

To me the Larkin contract also shows that the $6mil-ish mark set by guys like Forsberg, Barkov, Scheifele, Monahan hasn't really changed much in the past few years despite the cap going up.

Comfortable as in you wouldn't want to go lower or comfortable as in you wouldn't want to go higher?

I've said this before but I really think the question for Nylander will be to what extent he wants to let Babcock's decisions re: his play influence his pay.

3
NHL Transactions / Re: Minor Transactions - 2018 Offseason
« on: August 10, 2018, 11:59:33 AM »
Could help keep Nylander's cap hit below $7mil as well, since even though he's done it 2 years in a row his career high in points is a shade lower (61).

If they want to sign him for a similar term, sure.

Although at this point I'm sort of warming to that idea.

4
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 10, 2018, 10:50:58 AM »

FWIW, I thought Bracco might have been the answer to that question WIGWAL put out in the armchair GM thread.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 09, 2018, 10:10:33 AM »
Quote from: herman link=topic=514.msg333100#msg3331het00 date=1533749742
Would you be able to share some examples?

I'm sort of being facetious but as you're well aware there's really no way to avoid the sort of old school-new school divide between the Leafs' previous regime and the one that seemed to be in place when the Leafs brought in guys like Shanahan and Dubas.

Because a huge chunk of the debate in the hockey media over the last decade or so has been about these competing philosophies I think there were quite a few people who so wanted their beliefs validated that they were willing to pre-approve the new front office and give them credit before it was due. The flip side being the old schoolers wanting to take shots at it and give more credit to who they saw as their ideological horses like Lamoriello and Hunter.

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 08, 2018, 11:09:40 AM »
Is it Shanahan related, or is it more Bell/Rogers owning the team related? I'm not saying there's a nefarious conspiracy, but it would make sense for a media conglomerate to curate their message about a business property. It definitely appeared to 'stabilize' around Shanahan.

I don't really think it's either. I think that what happened was that certain things the new management team did, whether cynically or not, appealed to a lot of the new breed of media and there isn't anyone in the world who doesn't like being told they're pretty.

7
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:37:09 AM »
I don't disagree here; at the same time, who is in charge of what you read and listen to?

I think that's a more complicated question than you think, especially now that there's massive overlap between people who are ostensibly the critical media and game coverage. Someone out there may not like a Damian Cox or Elliotte Friedman or whoever but if they're just consuming the games themselves or watching Sportsnet generally they're bound to hear from all manner of people that they may not personally hold in high regard. It's one of the many thorny issues in wrapping up rights-holders and analysis in one(or two) conglomerates.

But even in the pre-internet age I think that being a savvy media consumer in a local market meant paying attention to things even if they weren't necessarily in your wheel house. Reading Cox or Strachan might not have been your cup of tea but being a Leafs-focused columnist at one of the city's dailies was a big deal and their opinions informed and often created the discussion around the team. Besides, if you were reading the paper you may as well read the whole damn paper.

I realize that the modern trend is to be selective in the media you consume to the point that you only see/read/hear the people you like or who do their jobs the way you approve of but I think that sort of devalues the communal nature of being a sports fan.

Again, I don't disagree. Are we still talking about Hofford's hyperbole here, or more of a general zeitgeist thing?

I was making sort of a separate point about something I've seen a lot of since Shanahan took over that I don't really think we saw before.

8
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 10:16:03 AM »
Which is why discussion boards like these (and twitter/reddit/facebook moreso) exist, right? It's not just media though: some of our best discussions here unfortunately spawned from really bad takes that were doubled down on for months.

I've never really thought of the purpose of a place like this to be to fact check the media, even if media criticism is a part of what we inevitably discuss. We can still expect more from the people paid to write and talk about this stuff.

But again, there's a wide range of difference between a bad or wrong take and what I'm talking about. Saying in February that the Leafs wouldn't sign Tavares or whatever was wrong, sure, and saying that they would or might was more correct. Saying that they should already get the credit for having done it though is bordering on the insane.

9
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 08, 2018, 09:58:35 AM »
Isn't sports media incentivized to take a stand one way or another? Wait and see doesn't generate attention/clicks the way being right (or being super wrong) does.

To the extent that all media is incentivized towards hot takes and sensationalism, sure. It's still, you know, dumb.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 10:38:38 PM »
These are standard Sydney (AU) prices. Not cheap but nothing unusual.

I don't know if things have changed since my time there but as I recall tipping wasn't as customary in Australia as it is here. So those prices are going to be in addition to a 15-20% gratuity at least.

But in general, I agree. If this is a good bar then those prices are pretty standard for good bars in downtown Toronto. That said I have some pretty strong suspicions that in addition to being fairly expensive, this place is also going to be pretty generic.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 11:58:05 AM »

I think my favourite thing might be the wine list having Wayne Gretzky's, Mike Weir's and Bob McCown's vineyards represented. Clearly making choices in service of the food.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 11:32:21 AM »
Admittedly I don't eat in Toronto very often but those prices seem nuts. $26 for a chicken caesar salad?! An $18 grilled cheese!?

edit: actually, a $27 plate of nachos is my favourite, only because guac is an extra $11! It's a share plate so I'd imagine it's an ok size but still.

Yeah, those are pretty sketchy even by the grossly overpriced standards of eating in that part of town. It's pricier in parts than Real Sports.

Which would be one thing if it were, you know, good.

13
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 07, 2018, 11:21:21 AM »
So so far, neither Hunter or Dubas have shown to be draft gurus exactly. The problem is the media won't shut up about calling one of them that and it's completely unfounded at this point.

One of the constant realities of the Shanahan era has been some media types, and resultingly a lot of fans, wanting to give people credit for things that had yet to happen.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: August 07, 2018, 10:58:39 AM »

Hey gang, have you watched Sportsnet's reasonably competent NHL coverage and thought to yourself "I think they probably would make a good burger", well, do I have the restaurant who'll charge you eight bucks for a pint of Bud Light for you!

http://www.sportsnetgrill.ca/

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 07, 2018, 07:05:34 AM »
There are a few reasons. One is the difference between the MLB soft cap and the NHL hard cap system. In the MLB system any team is allowed to spend over the established annual cap but they are required to pay a luxury tax on the overage. Imagine if the leafs could go out and pick up the two best defencemen in the league and just pay a tax on the amount they are over the cap.
 Secondly the nature of the game itself. In game seven of the World Series a player goes out with a broken ankle you replace him with one of the relief players on the bench. In game seven in the NHL playoffs a player is injured you finish the game one player short.

But none of those things exist in a vacuum. They're as true for a team's opponents as they are for that team. The lack of a salary cap means there are functional super-teams in MLB that have to be faced in the playoffs as opposed to the enforced parity of the NHL. Likewise the physical rigors of hockey affect the teams the Leafs have to play just as much as the Leafs.

The truth is that the idea of one championship being "harder" to win than another is just a nonsense cliche that even then is being misapplied here. Even in your own examples you're jumping back and forth between whether it's harder for players(getting hit) or, I guess, management(the roster limitations the salary cap imposes) to coaching(having to deal with injuries on the fly).

But the reality is that all sports have things that make them uniquely tricky. Right now people are effectively saying the basketball season is over because nobody can beat the Warriors. Likewise, star Basketball players play way more minutes than most hockey players do.

Soccer? No salary cap means every team is effectively competing on a global stage for players and against owners who may or may not care about being profitable. Lower tier clubs also don't have a draft just handing them the equivalent of Auston Matthews for being bad. It's why the same teams win their league every year. How easy is that?

Want to talk about physical impact on players? NFL players are basically giving themselves brain damage week to week, under a hard and byzantine cap that makes roster construction a virtual guessing game from year to year.

Or what about Olympic sports? How much easier is it for millionaire hockey players to train to win their sports' championship than it is for guys who have to work day jobs and get in their reps whenever they can?

The truth is that all of this is just a matter of perspective and a hoary old maxim like the Cup being harder to win than anything else is just being misused here to justify a bit of overhyping of the state the Leafs are in.

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