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Messages - cw

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 04, 2015, 08:58:18 AM »
And yet, as he's getting older, he's decided to work-out with Gary Robert's gym. It's almost like he's adapting.

or what the Penguins team does ....

Gary Roberts to oversee Penguins training at new Cranberry facility

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 04, 2015, 07:40:34 AM »
Kessel's going to be pretty good for a few years but in the latter part of his contract, I think his lack of fitness will catch up to him.

You need to be careful about how strongly you buy into media generated narratives. At training camp last season, Kessel earned some of the highest ratings in fitness testing. His perceived "lack of fitness" is entirely based on him having a rounder face and some offhand remarks he made about not skating much last summer - not "not training," just not skating.

This is a long standing issue with Kessel because, in large part, of Kessel.

His draft combine performance - no media was making that stuff up - those were test results. Kessel and his agent didn't dispute the account.
In Boston, he was praised one preseason for showing up in shape ... because previously he hadn't. Everyone happened to notice the difference.
Stupid remarks to the media like "skated 10 times maybe all summer" haven't helped his cause - that's self inflicted mismanaging perceptions.
Yes, he does look chubby and it's beyond his face. There have been a number of unflattering photos that do not demonstrate a truly lean, athletic physique
How many times have we seen him winded - or dragging his ass getting back?
Carlyle had some remarks about Bozak and Kessel not doing the work they should to recover from their injuries.
Media and others observing he's often the last on the ice and first off it at practice
Nonis remarked that some of his fitness testing was very good but other testing wasn't.
One hockey strength and conditioning coach  remarked that at some point in his life, Phil had done fitness work to develop the strength that he has ... but he didn't go on to describe Phil's maintenance of that level - his tone was like it was a thing in his past.

Ever hear of the expression "where there's smoke, there's fire" ? Kessel's been smoking for a long, long time in this area. He can't be in absolutely terrible shape or he couldn't play the game blowing past dmen. That's clear. But all you have to do is look beyond his chubby face to see that this $8 mil per year athlete isn't exactly tuckering himself out to be a fit as he can be. It will shorten his career - you have to work harder as you age to sustain a hockey career.

And that is the knock on the player: he's very talented and skilled but he's limited in how much he's willing to put out. That was identified at his draft. Identified by Boston. Identified by Wilson ("uncoachable"). And it's basically been identified by the Leafs who effectively dumped a $8 mil/yr "franchise player" for a pretty poor return.

The fact the media has reported this stuff for years cannot be merely dismissed as a media thing because of the various cities - not one media outlet, because some of it is based on test results, some of it is based on the observations of others in the sport, etc.

No, Phil earned this criticism largely by himself. The teams that got him, they're not hanging on to him like he's a precious talent like Crosby, Stamkos and the other franchise players. They're dumping him .. for a declining return.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:48:25 PM »
Google "Lucic" and "overpaid"

I did. I got 458,000 results. Then I googled "Crosby" and "overpaid". I got about 250,000 results.

"Kessel" and "overpaid" yielded 150,000 results. The internet man. It's a web of lies.

He's a power forward who has been erratic in performance. Pay him $6 mil and folks and media start carrying on about overpayment. I'd see it going back to his previous contract as some of those hits will direct you.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:40:46 PM »
On price performance, I think we could substitute the majority of the league and not pick Kessel.

Just quickly looking at some guys in his cap-hit territory and I'd take Kessel over Staal, Spezza, Krejci, Ryan, both Sedins, Stastny, Semin (I know, bought out). I'd probably take him over Parise too, especially when you factor in that Parise's cap hit is only as low as it is because of now-illegal contract tactics.

On the basis of price performance over the next 7 years - taking on that contract for 7 more years at $8 mil, I'd probably take the whole gang of players you listed over 7 years of Phil at $8 mil/yr. Many of them are scoring similarly to him last year and have deals ending much sooner. Kessel's going to be pretty good for a few years but in the latter part of his contract, I think his lack of fitness will catch up to him.

If I'm in Rutherford's position, I might take Kessel because the wick for that GM is likely short and if he fails, he won't be around to deal with the latter half of that deal anyway - it will be the next GM's problem. So other circumstances can change what one might do.

I think Ryan's a better all around player - more than points. Staal and Spezza help as centers. etc. Sedins should be similar for a couple of more years. etc.

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:27:58 PM »
Straight up, who do you think most would take?:
Crosby $8.7 for 10 years
Kessel  $8.0 for 7 years

Crosby. I'm glad we've been able to establish this twice now.

Wow, a lot of people in this thread would take the best player in the world at well below market rate over Kessel at market rate or slightly below market rate!

As I said above "On price performance, I think we could substitute the majority of the league and not pick Kessel."

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:25:50 PM »
If we don't like Crosby as an example, this really applies to all good top NHLers who are are paid what is perceived as market value and not widely regarded as overpaid. if the player is paid reasonably, there's no need to bring % of salary as a variable in the trade haggling.

Wrong again. Lucic wasn't widely regarded as being overpaid. But Boston still retained salary on him.

Google "Lucic" and "overpaid"  - that's hung some with him for a while. Not as notable as some but it's been a subject that has tailed him for some time - more than many others. Squeaked into top 300 in scoring but about top 50 in pay.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:13:52 PM »
Straight up, who do you think most would take?:
Crosby $8.7 for 10 years
Kessel  $8.0 for 7 years

Crosby. I'm glad we've been able to establish this twice now.

On price performance, I think we could substitute the majority of the league and not pick Kessel.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:02:33 PM »
It was predicted this would take place with Kessel and Phanuef in a trade and now, with Kessel it has.

Man, it sure is a shame you were coincidentally absent for weeks after the Babcock hiring. Didn't really feel up to talking about predictions then, huh?

Nope. Didn't seem too important at the time. Two funerals.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 04:00:55 PM »
If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

I'd have virtually no interest in Crosby right now if it meant giving up a boatload of assets to get him. I think there's actually a lot of teams in the league that wouldn't be interested.

Does that say anything about Crosby's value?

It might.

Straight up, who do you think most would take?:
Crosby $8.7 for 10 years
Kessel  $8.0 for 7 years

Me? I think Rutherford was stupid in this deal but he knows he isn't going to get many kicks at the can so ....

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:52:25 PM »
If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

Except that's actually not how trades work. For the Pens to offer the Leafs Crosby in a trade they would want assets back. So the question would become if the Leafs had the chance to add Crosby at 11 million per and had to throw in the sort of assets that would make it worth it for Pittsburgh...would they do it?

That's a trickier question. Would the Leafs want to go forward with Crosby, who's 28, and a significantly depleted group of prospects? You might lean yes but it's not an automatic answer.

And for a team like Chicago or Tampa Bay it's a significantly harder question. How would Chicago fit Crosby under their cap? By dealing Keith? Crawford? Kane? Would they want to blow up a team that's won 3 cups in 6 years to put together a team that would end up looking more like the Pittsburgh team Crosby's been unable to win with?

More teams would move things around for Crosby than Kessel because Crosby's better. But that's not a matter of debate.

That's not really the point.

The point is no team would be asking the Pens to eat 15% of Crosby's salary unless there was some extraordinary offset beyond Crobsy's talent return.

If we don't like Crosby as an example, this really applies to all good top NHLers who are are paid what is perceived as market value and not widely regarded as overpaid. if the player is paid reasonably, there's no need to bring % of salary as a variable in the trade haggling.

It was predicted this would take place with Kessel and Phanuef in a trade and now, with Kessel it has. But we still face denial of Kessel's contract being a problem. That's all I see this is: denial that Kessel was overpaid.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:42:01 PM »
If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

They'd require the Pens to take a contract back in order to facilitate the deal, as Pittsburgh tried to do with the Leafs before NTCs got in the way. That's just the reality of the cap system.

They might to make the cap math work easier but they wouldn't make them eat a contract. They'd get Kadri or something of good and fair value - not a dud. Kessel's contract, if the Leafs were not going to eat a %, was going to require eating a bad contract (like Weiss in Detroit was reported for example in the rumored Phaneuf deal)

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:36:57 PM »
We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, what's been established is what the Pens were willing to trade for Kessel, nothing more.

The other NHL teams were banned from making offers for Kessel? I don't think so.

What's been established is the Pens made the best offer for Kessel - at the very least, from teams on Kessel's list (roughly 10). The Leafs might have talked with a few others not on his list (probably did when few showed interest).

The reported interest in an $8 mil/yr hockey player (around 12th highest cap hit in the league) was close to pitiful. That also says something about the player and his contract.

13
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:29:23 PM »
We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

No, that's an assumption on your part. The reality is that team needed the Leafs to either take back a significant contract or eat some salary in order to fit Kessel into their cap structure. The teams that would have been looking at acquiring Kessel are all teams that are near the cap ceiling. If the Leafs were to have traded him to a team that wasn't up against the ceiling already, they almost certainly would not have had to retain cap or take money back (depending on the financial realities - or internal cap - of those teams, of course). The fact that the Leafs retained money on Kessel is not at all a reflection on his value. It's a reflection of the cap realities around the league, the Leafs' wish to get a deal done, and the unfortunate reality that most of the contracts other teams would have like to send back contain NTCs that wouldn't be waived to send players to a rebuilding franchise.

If the Pens offered the Leafs Sidney Crosby at $11/yr (he's currently at $8.7?/yr) would the Leafs tell the Pens to eat 15% of his deal in order to fit him under the Leafs cap? That's absurd. They'd jump all over it and pay full pop because Crosby is worth it.

Phil isn't worth it. Plain, pure and simple.

Sure teams have cap limitations. But they'll move a mountain of cap space for the right players. They wouldn't do so for Phil because he ain't worth it. Just like few teams bid for Phil for similar reasons. The whole league would be in on Crosby sweepstakes if he were available.

Oh, shame on me for comparing to the best or near best player in the league. How unfair! Yet that's the point. Phil at $8 mil/yr for 7 years  should be pretty close to the best player in the league because there's only a handful earning more. But as the trade demonstrated, he really isn't.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:17:40 PM »
If it's Crosby or Stamkos @ $10 mil for 7 years, I don't think there's a math problem for most teams - or it's a math problem they're happy to solve. Therefore, with Kessel, it is more of a problem with Kessel's worth and $8 mil/yr for Kessel over 7 years scared a lot of teams away.

There's no way either of those guys are getting less than $11M on the open market. And there's very few teams that would be able to afford that or fit it under their cap. Happy to solve and able to solve are significantly different.

Kessel's one of the top 5-10 scorers in the league over the last few years. If teams were scared away from him, it probably has more to do with the cost it would take to get him. On the free market, he easily gets $8M for 7 years.

The top cap hits currently are $10.5 mil. I don't think there's a team in the league who wouldn't make room for either Crosby or Stamkos at $11 mil/yr. Other bodies would go.

That's the thing about this Kessel deal. The Leafs ate 15% of his contract and still got a rather unexciting return. Imagine what a team might get in a trade for Corey Perry ($8.6 /yr) to pick a winger somewhat close in cap hit or Shea Weber 7.86 /yr - close in cap hit.

Wouldn't they get more than Kapanen and something less than a 1st (2nd for 3rd) ? I think they would and I don't think their teams would have to eat 15% of their contract to move them.

Now if Phil was at $4 mil/yr x 7 years, I'll bet the Leafs wouldn't have to eat a dime and the talent return would be a lot better than Kapanen and something less than a 1st.

The point is: the size and the length of the contract was a problem for moving Kessel that it would not be for other established NHL stars because Kessel is overpaid/not a good value for that amount and term.

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kessel traded to Penguins
« on: July 02, 2015, 03:00:29 PM »
Secondly, and more importantly, was Toronto's agreeing to retain some of Kessel's salary, an idea that the Leafs had fought for a long time. Toronto retained 15 percent of Kesselís annual salary, and the perennial 35-goal scorer looks a lot better on your roster at $6.75 million per year than $8 million, thatís for sure.

So, we've established saving money is desirable?

We've established the top bidding team for Phil  (of the few teams reportedly interested) wouldn't go along with the deal unless the Leafs paid 15% of Phil's salary. In other words, the Leafs and Pens effectively agreed he wasn't worth $8 mil/yr for 7 years.

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