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Messages - Hobbes

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1
Carrick has been pretty shaky too.

2
If they're going to super stack a PP1, I think it would make sense to spin up the fourth line wingers (Johnsson, Kapanen) on PP2 as they won't be getting much 5v5 time (probably not much PP time either, given who are being rolled out first).

You're operating under the rash assumption that PP1 will fail to score, allowing PP2 to even take the ice...

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 16, 2018, 08:22:05 PM »
Anyone want to take a guess at our mystery player?

The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more than a roughly-equivalent center. Nylander might have a future at some point as a 2C but hasn't become one yet, and seems likely to be slotted as a 1a/b winger for the foreseeable future.

I'm hoping he'll settle for something like
$6.5 x 6
$7 x 7
$7.5 x 8

Would be a "team friendly" deal to me if he shaved 250k-500k off any of the above.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 15, 2018, 11:57:27 PM »
He can sign an offersheet with any team right now, the Leafs would have the option to match the offer or accept draft pick compensation.
Do the Leafs have the option of cutting bait?  $7 million per season is a lot of money.  How much does Kadri make?  It's really not far off at all from the $11 million Tavares makes.
Kadri only makes $4.5 and is on a great deal. Next season both Gardiner and Hainsey are up so that adds up to $7M. Of course you'd have to replace them with 2 guys on ELCs...if Dermott can replace Gardiner and maybe Lilegejren makes the jump next season they might be able to do it.

Hainsey will not be resigned.  The Leafs may need to let Gardiner walk too, but Nylander at 7ish is what's going to happen and it's fine. And 7 is closer to 4.5 than it is 11.
Yeah that's what I'm saying, Leafs could make a Nylander contract of $7M work, if they can somehow trade Marleau next off-season even better since that's another $6.25 off the cap. Of course you'll need allot of internal options to step up like Holl, Carrick, Rosen on D, Kapanen, Johnsson, Grundstrom and maybe even Bracco on forward to round out the cheap roster options

It definitely part of the plan to take advantage of young cheap talent. Marleau will also definitely be a topic next off season.

Doesn't Marleau have a NMC? If so, he's probably not all that eager to move unless he has a shiny new Stanley Cup ring on his finger from this year.

5
Ennis is a veteran guy though, right?  It makes more sense to me than Leivo in that spot.

He's still a guy who definitely needs sheltered minutes, like Leivo and Johnsson. Quite frankly using Kadri as the match-up centre this season wouldn't make a lick of sense. Just use Tavares and go head-to-head.

Quite frankly the Leafs have the depth and talent on their lines (especially once Nylander finally signs) that they shouldn't be the ones line matching with other teams.  I found it frustrating last year that Babcock was so worried about his matchups that ice time would sometimes vary significantly because of this.  I'm not sure why the superior talent need to sit on the bench so Babcock can have Line 3 vs. Line 1 at the expense of Lines 1 and 2.

He did say in one interview this week that he intended to do a lot less matching and just roll out the lines so I suppose he's coming along more into your way of thinking. If I had to guess, he might have been more intent on it in the past because of the struggles Bozak's line frequently had in getting trapped in their own zone for extended periods of time. I don't see that happening with any of the lines this year (even the 4th line ought to be able to survive the occasional shift against many of the league's top lines).

6
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 14, 2018, 11:53:57 AM »
Dubas was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch and made it clear that the Leafs want Nylander signed long term rather than bridge so this suggests that either they're (so far) unable to agree upon a number or else Nylander wants to bet on himself by taking a short term deal in order to get to a higher dollar contract sooner. (I suppose the third alternative is Dubas BSing in the interview, though he could easily have said "not going to talk about it, period" instead.)

Well, that or the third alternative is that "long term" is kind of a vague term that can apply to a 4 or 5 year deal if short term just means a year or two.

Sure, and perhaps that's the major sticking point...the exact number of years of term vs AAV...the longer the Leafs want that to be, the more it's likely to cost them.

7
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 14, 2018, 11:49:20 AM »
Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.

No, I'm with you on that. What I think is sort of an interesting wrinkle in this situation is the cap situation the Leafs figure to be in next year specifically. Nylander may want a 8 year deal at a high AAV but the Leafs might be thinking that they're better off getting a smaller AAV sort of however they can while still keeping Nylander happy.

So that's where the Leafs might prefer a shorter term deal. Not because they have doubts about Nylander as a player long term but because it gives them some immediate breathing room and 4 or 5 years of Nylander at a decent cap hit while punting of the problem of giving him the deal he wants.

Dubas was just interviewed on Leafs Lunch and made it clear that the Leafs want Nylander signed long term rather than bridge so this suggests that either they're (so far) unable to agree upon a number or else Nylander wants to bet on himself by taking a short term deal in order to get to a higher dollar contract sooner. (I suppose the third alternative is Dubas BSing in the interview, though he could easily have said "not going to talk about it, period" instead.)


8
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: September 13, 2018, 03:33:59 PM »
There are going to be some epic battles in the West this season...trotting out Karlsson, Burns and Vlassic on your back end ought to strike fear into a lot of opponents.

Their blueline is excellent, no doubt. Probably the best in the league now. I just don't think they have the firepower up front to make it out of the 2nd round.

It's sure going to test the theory that defence wins championships.

9
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: September 13, 2018, 03:26:51 PM »
Yeah, if the Sharks make the playoffs then Buffalo gets their 2019 pick. Pretty sure they're making the playoffs.

Yeah. That seems pretty likely. Just an excellent trade all around.

There are going to be some epic battles in the West this season...trotting out Karlsson, Burns and Vlassic on your back end ought to strike fear into a lot of opponents.

10
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 13, 2018, 12:21:31 PM »
Except none of his comparables are getting 8% average over the 8-year term of their contracts (except perhaps for Draisaitl). For him to fall in line with them he'd have to be looking at more like 6% average over that term.

But I think that's sort of the point. The rest of those guys probably won't make the annual 8% but that's probably a factor in why all of them except Draisaitl signed for less than 8 years.

Sure, as a player you'd want to sign for 4 years for as much as you possibly could. Your agent is going to have a tough time with that, though, and if you have NHL aspirations you're a bit behind the 8-ball at this juncture in your career. He could bet on himself, sign a bridge deal at around 5-5.5 and have somewhat more leverage next time around when he's arbitration eligible; or he can get the term and stability of a longer term contract in the 6-8 year range and be paid for giving up some UFA years, but not at the earning potential he *could* get *if* he's as good as he thinks he is.

The whole bridge/term equation is a bet by the player vs a bet by the team as to how good that player will be.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Contracts for the Big-3
« on: September 13, 2018, 12:04:47 PM »
The term has to play a big role. Say they're agreed to 8 years, both sides. Nylander might argue that in 7 years 8 million will be 5% of the cap space. He may want an average of 8% cap space for the next 8 years. If the cap goes up at x % per year that means a yearly average of x million to hit that 8%.

Basically, pay me 11% this year, 10% next year....5 % in year 8, so that the average cap hit over 8 years is 8%.

Otherwise he'll say okay pay me 8% now, but only for 4 years so I can resign at 8% again in 8 years. It's great for the team to have guys with low cap hits later in contracts, but the players have to be getting wise.

Just throwing example numbers out there.

Except none of his comparables are getting 8% average over the 8-year term of their contracts (except perhaps for Draisaitl). For him to fall in line with them he'd have to be looking at more like 6% average over that term.

The Leafs would also never consider signing him to a deal that ends at his first available UFA year so 4 would be out. A bridge would be 2 or at most 3 years...anything else would have to be taking up at least a year or two of UFA eligibility to make it worth their while agreeing to.

Add to that the potential for a CBA lockout in a few years...


12
General NHL News & Views / Re: Yzerman stepping down in Tampa
« on: September 11, 2018, 01:31:32 PM »
Perhaps there's soon to be a vacancy for the GM job in Detroit and this is Part A of Stevie Y making himself available for it.


*finger guns*

Holland just re-upped for 2 years so I could see Stevie saying to the Bolts ownership that he'd like the job, will spend this year grooming/aiding his replacement, then move to Detroit the following season to take over the helm, perhaps with Holland staying on as an advisor for that second year.

13
General NHL News & Views / Re: Yzerman stepping down in Tampa
« on: September 11, 2018, 01:25:17 PM »
Perhaps there's soon to be a vacancy for the GM job in Detroit and this is Part A of Stevie Y making himself available for it.

14

More Kapanen quotes please.

We lost a Finn, and then I think we got a couple more Swedes, so I dont really like this setup right now. Its very bad. Very bad. (said with a big grin and completely in jest)

15
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Media Thread
« on: September 05, 2018, 12:00:19 PM »
Wow...Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown) joins The Athletic.

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