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Messages - Hobbes

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: July 10, 2018, 04:06:41 PM »
One has to wonder if it matters much at all for a team like the Leafs or Habs. They're sold out every home game already so there's no revenue increase there. I suppose they're more likely to draw a few extra tickets for away games, but they already do that to a fair degree so it would only be the net increase in sales.

A competitive team would allow the team to jack up the price of tickets, though, so I suppose that could increase revenue a bit. Merchandise sales probably isn't all that significant a fraction of total revenue.

TV contracts are already signed for the next x years. It's Sportsnet/TSN/US stations that will pocket the benefits of higher advertising revenue due to higher TV ratings.

I would tend to think it would be a small market teams who would help the most if their team was successful since a few thousand (or tens of thousands) of extra seat sales would significantly boost league revenue.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Matt Martin traded to the Islanders
« on: July 04, 2018, 11:52:40 AM »
I appreciate your perspective boss, I know you coach and can see these things, but he’s had several years of Barb Underhill tutelage since then. Having watched him on the Marlies a fair bit, I think he skates as well or better than most NHL fourth liners.

Yeah, and even if he still doesn't look fast, the few times we saw him last year he was able to close in quickly, to retrieve pucks pretty well, and, as I recall, to make a play.

He also had some nights/shifts where he looked utterly disengaged and listless...what Babcock would call "inconsistent compete." It seemed to me that he got beaten out in the line-up by not being as consistently relentless and hungry as some of the other guys he had to beat out for his spot. For the spot he was vying for in the lineup his hands/scoring were almost secondary...he had to spend most of his time in the O-zone. In his admittedly small sample size in 2017-18 he took a big step back in this department.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: The Matthews Extension
« on: July 03, 2018, 07:03:32 AM »
A real message to the team would be if he'd agree to 8 @ $88m to make himself equal with JT and leave the team that little bit extra for others. The ripple-down effect of both of the team's top guys taking a bit less cash to play on a winner would likely help in Marner and Nylander's negotiations, too.

Whether it would be in Matthews' best interests to sign that deal is a trickier one; but if he's really driven by winning it would be a pretty emphatic way to put an exclamation point on it.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: John Tavares is a Maple Leaf
« on: July 02, 2018, 08:41:29 PM »
So, yeah, the Islanders being a mess is pretty clearly an issue here and again...I think if a team is going to be bad enough to draft #1 overall they're probably going to have some other high picks and I just think it's tough to imagine messing up the way the Islanders did. Again, just about everything had to break wrong for them for Tavares to be in the situation he was in.

All things considered the Oilers aren't covering themselves with glory. Another 5 years of their futility might see another big name looking for a legitimate opportunity to win a cup.

5
I know you've all been waiting for my opinion, so wait no more:

1.  You play your best players when the game is on the line.  They're the ones that have earned it all year, and you count on them to get up.  DeBrusk is one of Boston's best forwards, he's a second line player that plays those minutes.  The Leafs also have players his age, and younger, that played a lot more the DeBrusk did/does.

2.  I think the Kadri suspension is where this series got decided.  That suspension really hurt the lineup.

3.  The Leafs counted on Andersen far too many times this year, and their luck ran out there.

4.  Gardiner had a bad game, oh well.  He's a 50 point defenseman this year, and one of the key guys that got this team into the playoffs.  If the Leafs could replay that period, I'm pretty sure they'd play Gardiner again in those minutes.

5.  I don't consider last night's game to be indicative of anything in particular, I'm more trying to look at the series overall.  The 7 game series did show me that Matthews and Nylander have a fair bit of work to do to earn $10-$11 mil and $6-$7 mil on my Leafs team.  Marner and Marleau played well. The newer kids played pretty darn well, all things considered.

6.  Young team, didn't get it done, not really surprised.  I'm looking forward to an interesting off-season.

It pains me to say it but I agree with everything that Frank wrote.

To me the series also reinforced the importance of winning draws, or at very least prevent clean opposition wins. Maybe the advanced stats say it doesn't matter, but to these eyes it sure seemed like we spent a lot of extra time in our zone and a lot less in theirs purely by our inability to start with control of the puck. I can think of 3 or 4 Boston goals that came immediately off a won draw, and far too many occasions where we had to withstand sustained pressure in our own zone after a faceoff. We paid after a number of our icings...the Bruins, rarely.

6
He's making a good case for having expended a 2nd round pick and a couple non-NHLers on him...good insurance for losing one of our other centers.

I would assume if Leafs didn't have Plekanec that this series would be 3-0 right now.
Tough to predict Kadri getting suspended but based off last game... Chances are high. We'd def be in bad shape without him.
I think it's more a case of "if we go deep chances are we'll lose at least a body or two along the way" and ensuring there's as much affordable depth in place as possible to cover that. You could think of Kadri as having a 3-game upper body injury (painful brain cramp)...

7
He's making a good case for having expended a 2nd round pick and a couple non-NHLers on him...good insurance for losing one of our other centers.

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Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kadri suspended 3 games
« on: April 14, 2018, 01:55:46 PM »
Please don't start screaming that the NHL is biased against the Leafs. That's hab fan territory.

Kadri got exactly what he deserved. I would of been fine with 5 games as well. It was an extremely selfish play.

No one is screaming. We have a season's worth of penalty statistics that suggest that the Leafs are more likely to be penalized than the other team. The penalty disparity continued into the first game of the playoffs. And now we have a suspension that appears to be disproportionate to other playoff suspensions.

I don't tend towards being conspiratorial but when the statistics suggest something is up, it's not much of a leap to suggest that some decision-makers historically do not like the team and allow that to colour their decisions.

The problem is the Leafs are actually one of the least penalized teams.

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?report=penalties&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=penaltiesMinor

They sit very near the bottom for PIM/game, total PIM, minors, etc.

If there's a conspiracy perhaps it's in the lack of penalties called against our opposition since we're also in the 28th range on that

http://www.nhl.com/stats/team?report=powerplay&reportType=season&seasonFrom=20172018&seasonTo=20172018&gameType=2&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=ppOpportunities

9
We've talked about Damon Severson before as a potential trade target. He's been a healthy scratch for 2 games in a row before tonight, which is of course pretty telling since the Devils are fighting for their playoff lives still. I wonder if there's a Severson-for-Zaitsev swap to be had in the offseason.

I was suggesting a JvR for Severson trade before the deadline, but I like your suggestion now that JvR will walk.

There's always the chance of selling the "early rights to talk to JVR" once the playoffs are done. Maybe a deal can be worked out.

10
Marner
Nylander

11
Could JVR had planned his UFA year any better? His agent must be salivating
Some team is going to throw something like 7x$7m at him (and regret it)

12
Almost every shift he's on the ice Kapanen does something that makes you sit up and go "wow." I can easily see him taking JVR's spot. He won't score as many goals but he's more responsible defensively and his speed will make space for his linemates. Put a decent center between he and Marner and it could be pretty darn fun to watch.

13
Marner...such magic
Johnsson...puck seemed to follow him all night too

14
Kadri
Andersen

15
Something’s not working on that unit as they’re just trying outside shots. It’s not just Matthews and Nylander playing their shooting sides instead. And we are probably losing a key part of the first unit next season.

Since December 1st Matthews and Nylander have just 1 PP point each. That's 30 games for Matthews, 37 for Nylander. It's baffling.

Brown has 1 PP point and Marleau has 2 in that same span.

Ian Tullock had a theory about the lack of PP scoring by those two. Loosely he suggests it's because for most of that time they're playing on switched sides which doesn't favour their particular strengths. Full details in his Athletic article

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