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Messages - bustaheims

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 03:16:03 PM »
Well, I guess I disagree.  Trading JVR, Bozak, and Komarov, at last year's deadline would have helped solve some of the problems we have today.

I don't think you can let high value assets walk with no return anymore.  If he's intent on going to market, and won't sign a deal, I deal him at the deadline.

EDIT: Or right now, if we know he likely won't re-sign.

While I was all aboard trading JvR, Bozak, etc., at this past deadline, I disagree about Gardiner. For the guys we let walk this summer, it didn't appear as though the intention was to ever really attempt to retain them. I don't think that will be true with Gardiner. Unless he makes it crystal clear he has zero intention of even considering extending his time as a Leaf (which seems unlikely), you hold on to him as long as you can to get as much time to negotiate a new contract. If you can't come to an agreement, so be it - but, you're not holding on to a player you don't see is part of the future, like the team did with JvR, Bozak, etc. You're giving yourself the best opportunity to retain a player you want as part of your team long-term.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 01:04:19 PM »
The subject here is Gardiner and PPP's attempt to just cut off discussion of trading him.  Articles like that are at best disingenuous if the author thinks that a flood of analytics is going to simply override the fact that the player had his worst game of the season at the worst possible time.

If you're looking to build the best possible team, they're right. You have to ignore the one game sample instead of ignoring everything else he brings to the table.

3
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:55:40 PM »
I think Gardiner's skill set is important to the team's fortunes this year, and he certainly isn't easily replaceable.

He had a bad game 7, really bad, and may have been a big reason they lost that game, but I don't think he's the reason they lost the series. 

I'm very curious to see how Dubas handles the situation of Gardiner coming up on UFA.

He was probably the team's best defenceman in games 1-6, so, you're absolutely right that he's not the reason they lost the series. In fact, he's a big part of the reason they even made it to game 7.

4
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Jake Gardiner
« on: July 17, 2018, 12:46:45 PM »
That is a wonderful article and whatnot, but the fact is that he was all-caps AWFUL in the one game where it counted most.  So no, PPP, people aren't going to seriously stop criticizing him and wanting to trade him until he is not awful in a G7-type situation.

The whole team was awful in that game. They all basically disappeared after the first period. Only Gardiner gets singled out for it. Yes, he was bad, and he was victimized (by the Bruins and by some shaky goaltending), but, the amount of blame he gets for that game is disproportionate to his actual impact.

5
Gudas. Pysyk. Petry. Tulloch had a column with a several options.

Hard pass on Gudas - too high a risk of suspension to be relied upon day-in, day-out. Also, spends too much time in the penalty box (though, a good chunk of those minutes are fighting majors - so, not putting his team on the PK, but still putting his team down a defenceman for 5 minutes at a time). Would prefer to avoid Petry's contract, and what it would cost for Montreal to send him here.

Pysyk is intriguing, depending on the cost of acquisition.

6
Gardiner and Carrick were really good together in 16/17, and with Babcock's preference to pair LHD with RHD, I expect him to get more ice-time this season (especially since, looking at the value of the contract he signed, management appears to believe in him). Gardiner and Zaitsev, meanwhile, were not so good together. They need to be split up.

What I expect for to start the season is something like:

Rielly-Hainsey
Gardiner-Carrick/Marincin
Dermott-Zaitsev
Marincin/Carrick

I agree with Frank on Holl - I think he's getting a little overvalued around here. To me, he seems to be more of a 6/7 at the NHL level, but a good top 4 guy for the Marlies, and I think management will prioritize his help in developing other pieces than having him play an inconsequential role on the big team. They may do the same for Marincin, but I can see Babcock wanting to keep him around as a sort of Polak replacement.

7
NHL Transactions / Re: Hellebuyck signs 6-year extension
« on: July 12, 2018, 11:48:07 AM »
My exact thought, that’s a huge commitment with only one real year of results.

Especially considering his only other season as a starting goalie, he posted below average results. The Jets are banking a lot of money on him having hit upon something he hasn't shown an ability to repeat yet.

8
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: The Matthews Extension
« on: July 12, 2018, 09:47:13 AM »
I'd be pretty surprised if any kind of offer sheet talk or RFAs talking to other teams was common in any way. If it was we'd have heard of instances where it happened at least a few times. That stuff gets out.

There may not be much in terms of serious negotiations or agreements being close, but I'd be very surprised if conversations didn't happen. Any agent doing his job properly would talk to other teams about what they might be willing to offer, should the situation arise where they'd be open to seriously negotiating with someone else.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: The Matthews Extension
« on: July 12, 2018, 08:47:38 AM »
I meant unsigned offer sheets. Teams can still spitball dollars. I wonder if rfas use those numbers in negotiations.

I'd be surprised if agents didn't talk to other teams to get a sense of what they might be willing to offer if things with the the team that owns their rights doesn't go well - and, that serves Nik's points. Even if there's never going to be an actual offer sheet, the fact that RFAs are free to negotiate with other teams drives up the value of their contracts - the threat of an offer sheet, no matter how unlikely, is leverage for the player.

10
NHL Transactions / Re: Kucherov Re-Signs 9.5M/8 years
« on: July 10, 2018, 11:47:42 AM »
Karlsson will only cost 6.5M for 2018-19, Callahan will cover most of that if they can move him.

To cover his raise for 2019-20.. Girardi (3.0) and Coburn (3.7) come off the books and are likely replaced by younger cheaper players.

Point will need a raise in 2019-20 and Vasilevksy the following year but by then Killorn's full NTC expires.

It will take some maneuvering and it may cost them some assets to move out contracts, but it looks doable to keep Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Karlsson and McDonagh.

They'll have to make some uncomfortable decisions, and their depth will definitely take a blow. They'll be a very top heavy team - but that seems to be the way the league is trending.

11
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: July 09, 2018, 06:12:06 PM »
Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

I imagine there's some evidence that happier fans spend more on concessions, merchandise, etc., but there's probably a similar drop off from teams that are underperforming. I'm willing to believe the league makes more money when the marquee teams are doing well, but I don't think it moves the needle all that much.

12
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: July 09, 2018, 04:56:04 PM »
The Leafs will raise the cap themselves by being awesome.

As ridiculous as that may sound there's truth to it. No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive. If the cap is $80M and the cap is determined by 57% of league revenues then league revenues equals $80M / 57% x 31 teams = $4.35B? Can anyone confirm the league revenue figure?

So if the Leafs want to move the cap themselves by $6M to pay for a Nylander it would require $326M more in revenues [(6M x 31 teams)/57%].

The league and the players split revenues evenly now.

13
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2017-2018 NHL Thread
« on: July 06, 2018, 04:08:22 PM »
Daigle played over 600 games? Damn!

*Edit: And his numbers aren't really super atrocious.

Yeah, if he wasn't hyped up to be a superstar and got picked in the 2nd round (and didn't spout off about no one remember who gets taken 2nd when being drafted ahead of a future HHOF defenceman), he'd probably be considered a reasonable success.

14
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Leafs sign Tyler Ennis
« on: July 06, 2018, 12:03:26 PM »
Interesting value opportunity. If he can recover at all, he'll be a huge bargain.

15
General NHL News & Views / Re: Official Ottawa Senators Thread
« on: July 06, 2018, 11:01:01 AM »
It doesn't make a huge world of difference but I think the assumption there re: Karlsson's new deal is a pretty big one. With Stamkos getting 8.5 and his buddy Hedman getting 7.875 or whatever it is, I'd imagine there'd be a ton of pressure for the new guy in the room not to blow up the team's existing salary structure.

Even if he comes in at around $8.25M, with Kucherov and Point needing contracts, that's still a tight squeeze. They'd basically have to blow up their existing depth.

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