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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => General Rumours & Speculation => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on March 08, 2018, 10:16:32 AM

Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 08, 2018, 10:16:32 AM
Bored without games, so just for kicks here's an armchair plan for next season:

1) Trade Zaitsev for Weber. Weber's the superior player but his contract is still pretty bad even if you're looking at it optimistically. If the Habs decide to make big changes and retool/rebuild then this gives them a younger righty who is signed long-term and can fit their future window much better. If you're opinion of Zaitsev falls closer to mine then there's no way Montreal makes this deal. But if you're opinion of him falls closer to Babcock's then I think it's pretty fair. Maybe tinker a little but it's a good start.

2) Sign Thornton to a 1-year deal worth $8mil. It's the same contract he signed last summer with San Jose. The Sharks will bow out in the 1st round and decide that money is better spent elsewhere. Thornton will join his buddy Marleau. The deals an overpayment but it's better than spreading it out over 2 years. Tavares would of course be preferable here but I'm going to assume he's dumb and will re-sign with the Islanders.

3) Make a big push for Tanev. The Leafs will still need a partner for Gardiner. Offer them Brown, Carrick, and 1st rounder to get the deal done. Overpayment? Maybe. Carrick's basically a throw-in and the plan is for that 1st rounder to be 29th-31st overall in 2019 though.

4) Sign Nylander to a long-term contract extension with a $7mil AAV. Might be a little lower, might be a little higher.

5) Trade Martin... somewhere. For something. I don't care where or for what.

All of this gives us a line-up of:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Thornton-Kapanen
x-x-Leivo
x-x

Rielly-Weber
Gardiner-Tanev
Dermott-Hainsey
Borgman

Andersen
McBackup/Sparks

That 4th line/extra forwards are a mystery, and after a few years of having so many different possibilities there it's a little sad I'm coming up with blanks there. Aaltonen could be one of them I guess. For cap purposes below, I'm going to assume each of those 4 x's will have a combined cap hit of $4mil.

That above roster, PLUS Horton's contract would put us at about $75mil for the cap. We could have up to $4.5mil in bonus penalties too that carry over from this season. The last estimate was that the salary cap for 18/19 would be around $78-82mil. So we'd be right at the edge of the cap, which is fine because that allows us to get maximum benefit from LTIR'ing Horton.

For the 2019-2020 season, Hainsey and Thornton will be off the books and the plan is to clearly ditch Marleau's contract somewhere. So that'd be $17.25mil in cap space added there. That's right about enough to get Matthews and Marner re-signed. Possibly $4mil more if Dermott's play allows us to walk away from Gardiner.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 01:46:21 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Crucialness Key on March 21, 2018, 02:12:17 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 02:27:02 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?

Yes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on March 21, 2018, 05:43:12 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 21, 2018, 06:35:33 PM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while I’m explaining all this, Mascherin was Bracco’s linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on March 22, 2018, 09:40:23 AM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while I’m explaining all this, Mascherin was Bracco’s linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.

So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 22, 2018, 09:42:45 AM
I can't open Athletic links, so can you clarify what the Dubas link is to this player?

There is no direct Dubas connection to Mascherin.

There is only the similarity of circumstance (as Crucialness Key queried) to the trade that brought Zach Hyman into the Leaf fold prior to the 2015 draft, orchestrated by Dubas.

And while I’m explaining all this, Mascherin was Bracco’s linemate and close friend in junior, and the usual recipient and beneficiary of his very slick passing plays.

So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?

Mascherin-Brooks-Bracco under 5'9 4th line baby!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 22, 2018, 10:09:41 AM
So what you are advocating for is a Mascherin-Matthews-Bracco line right?

Mascherin-Brooks-Bracco under 5'9 4th line baby!

Now I don't want anything else.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on March 22, 2018, 02:31:03 PM
2) Sign Thornton to a 1-year deal worth $8mil. It's the same contract he signed last summer with San Jose. The Sharks will bow out in the 1st round and decide that money is better spent elsewhere. Thornton will join his buddy Marleau. The deals an overpayment but it's better than spreading it out over 2 years. Tavares would of course be preferable here but I'm going to assume he's dumb and will re-sign with the Islanders.

I've been wondering about overpayment one-year deals for a difference maker next season... they've got lots of money available, and then things get tight.

Thorton seems a prime candidate, given how interested they were (reportedly) last season, but maybe they make a Radulov-esque offer to Kovalchuk? Nash? Or someone else?

Now that they didn't cash him in at the deadline, would be nice if they could find a way to keep JvR for another season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on March 22, 2018, 02:38:56 PM
I've been wondering about overpayment one-year deals for a difference maker next season... they've got lots of money available, and then things get tight.

Thorton seems a prime candidate, given how interested they were (reportedly) last season, but maybe they make a Radulov-esque offer to Kovalchuk? Nash? Or someone else?

Now that they didn't cash him in at the deadline, would be nice if they could find a way to keep JvR for another season.

I doubt Kovalchuk or Nash take 1-year deals. But if the Leafs don't go for a big centre like Tavares or Thornton then I'd definitely look at Kovalchuk on a 2-3 year deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on March 22, 2018, 06:46:54 PM
https://theathletic.com/282610/2018/03/21/gms-offseason-priorities-rangers-open-to-moving-a-first-round-pick/

The Power of Dubas compels you:
Quote
BONUS ITEM: According to an NHL source, the Florida Panthers have been told that prospect Adam Mascherin won't be signing with them before the draft. If that remains the case, he would re-enter the draft where he would be an interesting prospect coming off a big season in Kitchener. He has 40 goals this season in 67 games. Mascherin was the Panthers second-round pick (No. 38 overall) in 2016, and GM Dale Tallon is now shopping him to try and get a return before the draft.

If you're not familiar with Mascherin, watch Jeremy Bracco highlight videos from his Kitchener Rangers days.

Isn't this kind of how we got Zack Hyman?

Yes.
They had to give up a Keg to get him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 10:38:59 AM
One of the reasons for Mascherin's not signing with the Panthers is their lack of communication with him.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/chicago-blackhawks-stan-bowman-stanley-cup-runs/
Quote
12. The Panthers are trying to trade 2016 second-rounder Adam Mascherin of OHL Kitchener. A 40-goal scorer for the Rangers, he informed Florida he would not sign there before he can re-enter the draft in June. It’s unfortunate, as it appears there was some broken telephone that made things worse than they needed to be. This will not be easy for the Panthers, since interested teams won’t want to give up something if they think they can just draft him in three months. Their best hope is that someone who lacks draft choices where Mascherin might be taken decides it really wants him.

From back in September:

Looking forward to Mascherin - Brooks - Bracco ripping through the AHL and onto the Leafs' 4th* line in two years.

* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on March 29, 2018, 11:44:49 AM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 01:25:59 PM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?

He's quite good. He's not quite great.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on March 29, 2018, 01:41:43 PM
* It won't be a real 4th line, but it's hard to slot Brooks over any of Matthews, Kadri, Tavares.

Is that because Brooks isn't any good?

He's quite good. He's not quite great.

He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on March 29, 2018, 01:49:05 PM
He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.

He's shaking off the mono and finding a fit higher up in the lineup with Rychel, Soshnikov, Kapanen, and Johnsson leaving or Leafing. 7 of his 14 pts have come from Pi day on (which is the day Johnsson got called up).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 02:04:05 PM
He does have 14 more points in the AHL this year than I do so, point conceded.

He's shaking off the mono and finding a fit higher up in the lineup with Rychel, Soshnikov, Kapanen, and Johnsson leaving or Leafing. 7 of his 14 pts have come from Pi day on (which is the day Johnsson got called up).

I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on March 29, 2018, 02:21:18 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 02:34:55 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on March 29, 2018, 02:43:30 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.

I agree. The chances of Brooks having much of a NHL career are pretty remote. That was my point.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on March 29, 2018, 03:10:34 PM
I mean he was only a 4th round pick, I'm not willing to throw the towel in on him just yet.  There's only 3 players from that draft year from rounds 4-7 that actually have played in the NHL so far.   3 out of 120 players taken, pretty small odds for hitting successfully.


That's because most guys in that draft year are two years younger than he is.

That's fine, it's still a low probability of success.  If you go back another 2 years to players the same age as him that were taken in rounds 4-7, there's only 13 out of 120 that have played in the NHL.

I agree. The chances of Brooks having much of a NHL career are pretty remote. That was my point.

Yup, which would make any success he does have in the NHL a huge bonus for the Leafs.  That's why I'm still hoping the kid breaks through.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 04, 2018, 04:29:24 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 04:42:38 PM
PA: Matt Martin, please come down to Kyle's office, Matt Martin to Kyle's office.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 04:43:24 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on April 04, 2018, 04:45:24 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.

We should trade them his UFA rights for the low low price of a 2nd round pick.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 04, 2018, 05:04:28 PM
There is also chatter coming out of Vancouver that they are pretty interested in making a pitch for Tyler Bozak come July.

We should trade them his UFA rights for the low low price of a 2nd round pick.

To ensure they have his faceoff skills and playoff experience for 8 years, yeah.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 04, 2018, 05:45:22 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.

Guy has 17 goals, 44 points, $5.75 cap hit for the next 3 season, so is going to be worth a boatload of a trade return. 

Would anyone consider moving Liljegren + + for him?  He's only 24.  Under the circumstances, with the forward core really showing to be ready for prime time, I think I'd do it...assuming the plus is reasonable.

Another thing, I wonder if either Sparks or Pickard are worth anything at this point?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on April 04, 2018, 10:47:35 PM

The Flames are 100% trading Hamilton in the offseason and we need to get on that.

Guy has 17 goals, 44 points, $5.75 cap hit for the next 3 season, so is going to be worth a boatload of a trade return. 

Would anyone consider moving Liljegren + + for him?  He's only 24.  Under the circumstances, with the forward core really showing to be ready for prime time, I think I'd do it...assuming the plus is reasonable.

Another thing, I wonder if either Sparks or Pickard are worth anything at this point?

I don't think that the Flames want a d-man back.  The chatter is that they will move pieces from their defence in order to get scoring depth.  In this case they are going to probably want someone who can contribute up front.  I'm not sure though that the pieces the Leafs have there are going to get it done.  Marner, Nylander, Kadri are too much to offer, and Brown, Kapanen, Johnsson are too little.  Plus I think they want help down the middle. 

Also, just to add to that, I am not sure Hamilton is the right kind of D-man to add.  The Leafs need a younger version of Hainsey.  Someone who is calm in his own end.  The Leafs already have guys who can put up points.  They need more d-men who can stifle an attack. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on April 05, 2018, 09:03:24 AM
 I think they are more likely to move Brodie and hold onto Hamilton.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 08, 2018, 04:56:26 PM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 08, 2018, 05:06:59 PM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 08, 2018, 05:14:51 PM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?

July 1st? Probably. I feel like Lou will still steer the ship through this offseason. Lots of work to do with the big-3 all eligible for new contracts, plus some big names available in free agency too. I don't think Shanny will want to put that all on Dubas/Hunter's shoulders right away. The earliest Lou steps down I think would be later in the summer after much of that work is done.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 08, 2018, 06:58:14 PM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.

Radulov came back on a one-year deal, apparently because he had to show teams he could still play at an elite level in the NHL... Although always better than Radulov, he's also older... so I wonder Kovalchuk is in a similar position.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 10:39:47 AM

Kovalchuk on only a 2-3 year deal is very, very appealing. He's not coming back to the NHL for charity but if he was just looking to get paid he'd stay in the KHL, so if he comes back for something like what Radulov got ($5.75-6.25mil) then Lou should be giving him the call.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 09, 2018, 10:43:14 AM
JVR-Tavares-Kovalchuk on the Rangers?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on April 09, 2018, 10:47:28 AM

So much for that NYR "rebuild."
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 09, 2018, 10:50:08 AM

I'm still waiting for someone from North America to chime in here. So far nobody has touched this story and it's been up all morning. The Rangers really don't make any sense here. They've publicly stated that they're rebuilding and Kovalchuk has publicly stated his intention to play for a Cup contender. They also don't even have a head coach at the moment, and a player like Kovalchuk would probably want to at least know who that's going to be before signing a deal.

There's also the fact that technically teams aren't supposed to be talking to Kovalchuk until he turns 35 years old, which doesn't happen for another week. It's possible New Jersey just said "whatever do what you want", but that's how Friedman described the situation in his last 31 Thoughts column.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 10:56:30 AM

I'm still waiting for someone from North America to chime in here. So far nobody has touched this story and it's been up all morning. The Rangers really don't make any sense here. They've publicly stated that they're rebuilding and Kovalchuk has publicly stated his intention to play for a Cup contender. They also don't even have a head coach at the moment, and a player like Kovalchuk would probably want to at least know who that's going to be before signing a deal.

There's also the fact that technically teams aren't supposed to be talking to Kovalchuk until he turns 35 years old, which doesn't happen for another week. It's possible New Jersey just said "whatever do what you want", but that's how Friedman described the situation in his last 31 Thoughts column.

I'm also side-eying that he only has a single source on this, but that didn't stop me from bumping it up here (since he was the original reporter on Kovalchuk's term preference).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 09, 2018, 11:03:02 AM
Is Lou still the GM at that time?

July 1st? Probably. I feel like Lou will still steer the ship through this offseason. Lots of work to do with the big-3 all eligible for new contracts, plus some big names available in free agency too. I don't think Shanny will want to put that all on Dubas/Hunter's shoulders right away. The earliest Lou steps down I think would be later in the summer after much of that work is done.

I'm having similar thoughts. Shanahan is looking to set Dubas (I do believe it's Dubas) up in a position to succeed, and that starts with clearing the decks of those really big contract negotiations via Lou first, or at the very least setting the table by getting Nylander's done. Matthews' is almost a foregone conclusion; there's really nothing to harangue there and it's going to be somewhere between Eichel's and McDavid's.

Does Edmonton or Buffalo take a huge run at scooping up Lou once we push him up and out?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: hockeyfan1 on April 10, 2018, 07:56:06 AM
Hmm.  Crunch time not yet but coming soon...


https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/4/8/17212612/toronto-maple-leafs-cap-space-2018-bonus-overages
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 18, 2018, 10:26:11 AM

I don't know who Jermaine Franklin or (Jason) Gregor are but boooooooyaaaahhhhhhhh!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 18, 2018, 10:36:38 AM
800 Lira, 45 Irish Punts and James Van Riemsdyk.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/2/21/Carnac.jpg/220px-Carnac.jpg)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 18, 2018, 10:37:35 AM
Hmm.  Crunch time not yet but coming soon...


https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/4/8/17212612/toronto-maple-leafs-cap-space-2018-bonus-overages
No D available to pay? Sure we could add a Thorton but our issue isn't up front. I think some pieces we don't want to move will have to move for this team to get better at D quickly. I don't think there is a "window" not with this D.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 18, 2018, 11:14:32 AM

I don't know who Jermaine Franklin or (Jason) Gregor are but boooooooyaaaahhhhhhhh!

Jermain Franklin (https://twitter.com/TSNJFranklin) is the Calgary beat reporter for TSN.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 19, 2018, 01:05:14 PM

All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 19, 2018, 01:15:33 PM

Tyler, your son loves it here in Toronto. Enough that you should probably sign a 2-year contract worth $4mil to stay and be our 4C.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 19, 2018, 01:31:20 PM

All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

3 or 4 years, 2-3M, a la Brown/Hyman, depending on whether he wants to land on RFA or UFA at the end? Staggered to be the next wave after Brown/Hyman, still not out terming the big 3. Kapanen gets similar shortly after.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 19, 2018, 01:32:39 PM
All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

I wouldn't expect he'll get that much in value or term.  I'm thinking 2 years, 3 M (1.25, 1.75)?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 19, 2018, 01:45:58 PM
All the attention right now is on the big-3's contracts (for good reason) but Johnsson's next deal could be very interesting as well. He's 23 years old, turns 24 in November... so despite being a rookie he's not exactly that young (in NHL terms). Do the Leafs feel comfortable enough in him to lock him up long-term, or do they go with a short term deal?

I wouldn't expect he'll get that much in value or term.  I'm thinking 2 years, 3 M (1.25, 1.75)?

I'm projecting same term with slightly lesser value (% of cap). It's a good stretch of time to prove himself and pull a payday before he's over the hill. And even when he gets to the end of that deal, I doubt he'll exceed 4.5M AAV in production (Kadri level) should we choose to keep him longer, and we'll have basically made bank on all of his prime.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 12:59:46 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 26, 2018, 01:34:28 PM
I'm most interested to see what they'll do with the $25m in cap space they have...

The big contracts won't be on the books for another season, so I wonder how many -- if any -- worthwhile players they can lure to play on 1yr overpayment contracts. It'll also be interesting to see if they get creative. Like... Is it a CBA violation to give Tavares a one-year $16m contract then re-sign him for 8 at 9m per? That's his $13m x 7 contract tweaked a bit.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 02:01:23 PM
I'm most interested to see what they'll do with the $25m in cap space they have...

The big contracts won't be on the books for another season, so I wonder how many -- if any -- worthwhile players they can lure to play on 1yr overpayment contracts. It'll also be interesting to see if they get creative. Like... Is it a CBA violation to give Tavares a one-year $16m contract then re-sign him for 8 at 9m per? That's his $13m x 7 contract tweaked a bit.
Trade kids/prospects for salary D man. D UFAs aren't strong. I believe a trade is necessary to improve the D in a meaningful way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 02:28:55 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 03:37:28 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 26, 2018, 03:39:45 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 03:57:05 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).
I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 04:03:19 PM
Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).

I wrote off Holl last season, but given the weakness on the right side, I can't ever say there's no chance on that side, unless we're talking about Corrado.

Rosen has been pretty good with the Marlies since he got adjusted (i.e. better than Borgman, but not as good as Dermott, Marincin). If they're willing to entertain him on the right side (after 3+ catastrophic injuries), he's got value. Unfortunately, his value is greater on a team that's not the Leafs.

Unless the Leafs drastically change in style on the backend, there is little hope for Rosen, Borgman. I hope the Marlies go on a hellacious long run here both for #TeamDubas and to give Babcock a really long look at what our player pool can look like if he lets go of a few hard-set ideas (boring 4th line, big-strong D requirement on PK, line reacting vs line dictating).

I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.

Ozhiganov is a bit worse (numbers-wise) than the free player we released to join his team in the KHL (Marchenko), but he does offer a different flavour of defense to what we've got. Not sure what his shot metrics look like, but he's less offensively gifted than Zaisev if that paints a picture. He has given commitment to the Leafs.

John Carlson is not likely the answer. He plays the semi-sheltered offensive D-man role. Unless Babcock suddenly decides that the new NHL is all about them goals and just goes hog-wild on offense-first-and-always, Carlson doesn't fit the niche we need filled. He's a points-getter too, so he'll be expensive and probably dreadful after the first 2 years of the new deal, especially if he gets pushed into the shutdown minutes he never played before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: L K on April 26, 2018, 04:11:30 PM
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?

We should probably stop thinking of Nielsen as an NHL option.

Any particular reason for writing off Nielsen?  He had a disappointing year but he's only 21.  I certainly wouldn't bank on him in the next two years but he could easily have a bounce back year next year and look like a much better option.

Liljegren strikes me as a guy who needs a full season in the minors before being ready although maybe he surprises as a Dermott kind of callup if he gets off to a strong start next year.  Regardless, I think it rules him out as a viable option for the lineup starting next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 04:15:32 PM
2nd round pick + Johnsson + Gardiner for a minute eating Dman.

Not a knee jerk reaction to Gardiner's one bad game. I group Reilly/Dermott/Gardiner as similar type of Dman. I think we can live without one for another type of Dman.
It would depend on what's in the pipeline. Is Timmy ready? Rosen? Holl? Nielsen?
We need someone today, not tomorrow. I can't see us getting better as a whole without a trade. Our D needs a massive upgrade that's not available within or via UFA, this summer anyway.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 04:20:07 PM
Any particular reason for writing off Nielsen?  He had a disappointing year but he's only 21.  I certainly wouldn't bank on him in the next two years but he could easily have a bounce back year next year and look like a much better option.

Liljegren strikes me as a guy who needs a full season in the minors before being ready although maybe he surprises as a Dermott kind of callup if he gets off to a strong start next year.  Regardless, I think it rules him out as a viable option for the lineup starting next season.

He's a defenseman who can't defend.

He sure can shoot the puck into the net, so that's a plus, but that's really all he's got going for him. Basics like skating and pivoting and decision making off the play are... adventures. The Leafs, rightly, don't rely on long bombs from the point.

Might be more worthwhile to convert him to wing, but he's not particularly fast going forwards.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 26, 2018, 05:00:14 PM
Andrei Markov meets the short term bill? He's committed to the KHL for 2 years (1 more) but maybe a few extra million could sway that?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 06:37:23 PM
Probably ditto for Rosen and Holl too to be honest (even though I liked Holl's play in his 2 games, I just don't ever see him getting an extended opportunity).

I wrote off Holl last season, but given the weakness on the right side, I can't ever say there's no chance on that side, unless we're talking about Corrado.

Rosen has been pretty good with the Marlies since he got adjusted (i.e. better than Borgman, but not as good as Dermott, Marincin). If they're willing to entertain him on the right side (after 3+ catastrophic injuries), he's got value. Unfortunately, his value is greater on a team that's not the Leafs.

Unless the Leafs drastically change in style on the backend, there is little hope for Rosen, Borgman. I hope the Marlies go on a hellacious long run here both for #TeamDubas and to give Babcock a really long look at what our player pool can look like if he lets go of a few hard-set ideas (boring 4th line, big-strong D requirement on PK, line reacting vs line dictating).

I don't watch the Marlies, that's why I asked. Is that Igor Ozhiganov an option? He's a right hand shot? I've read where Kucherov was lobbying Tampa to bring him over and Babs and Lou went over to see him last summer...Maybe we go after John Carlson? Going to be interesting. Either way I think we need a top shut down guy so that Hainsey/Zaitsev can move down the depth chart.

Ozhiganov is a bit worse (numbers-wise) than the free player we released to join his team in the KHL (Marchenko), but he does offer a different flavour of defense to what we've got. Not sure what his shot metrics look like, but he's less offensively gifted than Zaisev if that paints a picture. He has given commitment to the Leafs.

John Carlson is not likely the answer. He plays the semi-sheltered offensive D-man role. Unless Babcock suddenly decides that the new NHL is all about them goals and just goes hog-wild on offense-first-and-always, Carlson doesn't fit the niche we need filled. He's a points-getter too, so he'll be expensive and probably dreadful after the first 2 years of the new deal, especially if he gets pushed into the shutdown minutes he never played before.
Thx Herman.. Appreciate it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 07:06:31 PM
Thoughts on reconstructing the D:

Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

Reilly - Carlson
Dermott - Hamilton
Hainsey - Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

Edit:
Sign De Haan to shift Dermott down:

Reilly - Carlson
De Haan - Hamilton
Dermott - Pysyk/Severson
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 26, 2018, 07:28:54 PM
I was thinking about Da Haan. He could be an option. Hey he was a plus on the worst defensive team in the league. Hamilton could be good. Doesn't Calgary want some toughness, hello Martin
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 07:36:53 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 07:53:00 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 26, 2018, 08:02:28 PM
Sign Carlson, 7x7
Trade Gardiner for Hamilton
Trade Zaitsev for Pysyk/Severson

How far off am I on values?

You would get laughed out, unfortunately.

Which one(s) is/are laughably bad?

The Zaitsev one is the most difficult to see happening one for one. He's older (than Severson) and has more term and a higher salary than Pysyk and Severson. Severson appears to be supplanted, so it's not like they need someone on the right side. Florida is pretty happy with Pysyk as far as I can tell, so I don't see the incentive for either of them to target Zaitsev.

Gardiner for Hamilton is great for the Leafs, but I don't see why Calgary would want to do that, other than maybe short term cap reasons or just going kind of crazy.

That said, I'd be open to hearing some compelling arguments to the contrary.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on April 26, 2018, 08:33:48 PM
Hamilton isn't going anywhere unless someone comes up with a seriously crazy offer. They may take a good look at Bozak depending on what he's looking for in dollars and term.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on April 26, 2018, 08:36:53 PM
I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: sickbeast on April 26, 2018, 08:55:33 PM
Is that Hamilton the same Douggie Hamilton that we essentially traded for Phil Kessel? Man that would really burn if the Leafs lose that trade. It would be like pouring vinegar on an already open wound.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on April 26, 2018, 09:38:26 PM
First thing I'd try to do is get Ottawa's conditional 1st round pick from Colorado.

Connor Brown + prospect hopefully would have traction.

I'd then send Ottawa Liljegren + Gardiner + Ottawa's and Toronto's 1st round picks for Erik Karlsson.


I think Toronto should look at having Matthews - Kadri - Nylander as the top 3 centers next year.

Look for some quality ufa's to fill out the wings and bottom D pairings.

Maybe Hamhuis or Greg Pateryn. Slim pickings for ufa's.

Not sure what people around think about throwing big money at John Carlson.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 07:59:42 AM
I can see the Pysyk deal being a tough sell for Florida, just thought he would be a good option for the Leafs.

Re: Zaitsev for Severson:
Right now, Zaitsev is the better player, but Severson has the better potential (and contract).  So, I'd be banking on Severson turning things around.  I can see a small add or retention from TO's side, but it shouldn't be much given we give up the better player.  For the Leafs, it's about higher potential and a better contract.

Re: Gardiner for Hamilton:
The hope here is that the rumours Calgary wants to trade him are real (for whatever reason they may have).  If that were the case, and assuming Calgary wants a defender back, I think this could could be a viable option with a little evening out (2nd or prospect).

They are no doubt upgrades for the Leafs and the types of defensemen we should probably be targeting. I just don’t see any reason why the other teams would entertain those proposals.

I think it will require the involvement of other teams (who need offensive defensemen, like Edmonton and every team in the Atlantic that didn’t make the playoffs, to provide the Leafs with more trade capital to get young defensive options from places like Florida, New Jersey, Anaheim, Carolina, where they have a glut of options.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 08:11:17 AM
Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. He’s playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GM’s still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 08:14:47 AM
Our prime trade chips have probably crept into core territory (Kapanen, Johnsson), or their contracts are expired (JvR, Komarov, Bozak).

Gauthier is a viable trade option. He’s playing well lately, but there is a dearth of centres on the market, carries 1st rd pick cred (which is nonsensical but most GM’s still buy it).

Bracco is starting to heat up, but his ceiling is basically capped by Marner and Nylander on the RW. Timashov is a similar style player on the LW side, so he has a path to the NHL if he can realize his potential.

Nielsen might have suitors if they just look at his goal videos.

Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 09:22:49 AM
Yeah... I don't see any of Gauthier/Timashov/Bracco having any real trade value at this point. At least not to bring back someone who might have any kind of impact.

If we're looking for moves, Brown needs to be shopped. We all like him I know but you need to give up something to get something, and we're incredibly loaded on the right side anyway.

Brown, Zaitsev, and our 1st would be something that I'd be trying to sell around the league... with the hope that other people see Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I see him.

I was thinking of them as part of packages, but you're probably right it has to be primarily an NHL transaction.

I've read recently (or heard, but can't remember the source) that prior to the Hamonic deal, Anaheim really mulled deeply about JvR for one of their D (or was it Andersen+?), but it didn't fully materialize (or our ask was too high).

Is Anaheim going to take one more big swing while Getzlaf is still mobile and Kesler's body parts are still intact? They're not going to want to be anywhere near the cap if they're rebuilding/retooling and we have cheap parts. Same thing for Carolina.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 09:41:11 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 09:52:15 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 09:55:12 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.
I would crap myself if they somehow got Webber. I would literally pick my spot for the parade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 09:56:19 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-pairing defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 09:57:30 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-paring defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.

If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 09:58:11 AM
You want to have an impact trade for a D-man?  Make Kadri the main piece.  He's coming off a record goal-getting year, plays a 2-way game, and is signed for several more years at a very reasonable price. 

This frees Nylander to move to center, where he should be, and opens his spot on the top line for Kapanen.

Although I am not entirely sold on signing Tavares, if you use Kadri to get a top-paring defenseman then you can use all that cap space on Tavares if you want.  If he re-signs with NYI before the deadline, then try to re-sign Bozak as 3C.

Sure it's a gamble if you can't get either Tavares or Bozak or at least Bozak's equivalent, but to me Kadri is our most promising trade chip.

If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 10:05:51 AM
If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?

Not saying there's an immediate fit for all these teams, but these are the guys I'd like to have on the team, to varying degrees (and most are impossible to pry):
Lindholm, Manson, Montour
Slavin, Pesce, maybe Faulk
Ekblad (though pricey)
Hamilton
Trouba
Girard
Provorov
Werenski, Jones
Severson
Chabot
McAvoy
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 10:16:53 AM
If he brought in an under-30 top-3 RD with some term, yeah I'd consider moving him for sure.

That's precisely what I had in mind.  I'm no good at making specific trade proposals.  Any suggestions as to who would fit the bill?

Not saying there's an immediate fit for all these teams, but these are the guys I'd like to have on the team, to varying degrees (and most are impossible to pry):
Lindholm, Manson, Montour
Slavin, Pesce, maybe Faulk
Ekblad (though pricey)
Hamilton
Trouba
Girard
Provorov
Werenski, Jones
Severson
Chabot
McAvoy

It should be possible to get either Anaheim or Carolina to part with one of those guys.

I think I would target the Canes.  A new GM may wish to make his mark.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 10:46:17 AM
Our trade chips:
On D one of Gardiner/Dermott/Reilly and at W one of Kappi/Johnsson and picks.

Potential return (I tried to include only "realistic" targets, expiring contracts or teams looking for a shakeup):

Car: Faulk
Dal: Methot
Edm: Russell
LA: Doughty/Martinez/Muzzin
Min: Dumba (doubt it but maybe budget constraints?)
MTL: Petry/Weber (post firing of their GM)
NSH: Ellis (dream on)
Ott: Karlsson/Ceci
Phi: MacDonald
Pit: Oleksiak
SJ: Martin/Braun/Dillon
STL: Gunnarsson/Bouwmeester (actually think B is a fairly realistic option and the type of D Tor is lacking)
VAN: Edler/Del Zotto


Potential UFAs:
Johnson, Hamhuis, Thorton, Carlsson
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 27, 2018, 10:47:21 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 10:50:03 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 10:57:08 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.

Perhaps WIGWAL, and I, misunderstand your proposal.

Are you suggesting we trade one of Gardiner, Dermott, and Rielly, as well as Kapanen or Johnsson, in order to secure the services of Kris Russell?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 10:59:14 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

Yea, I guess one major roadblock is Bergevin and him wanting to save as much face as possible on that Subban deal. It's a shame; I think it would work well (or some variation of that deal) for both teams.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: azzurri63 on April 27, 2018, 11:08:24 AM
Gauthier was born in Laval, was a former 1st rounder, and has size. If that ain't a perfect fit for our Hab friends, I don't know what is!

Soooo......Gauthier + Zaitsev for Weber??? Maybe also throw in a decent pick for some salary retention on Weber?



I've said this before but I'd push pretty hard on Weber. I think if they canned Bergevin there could have been a decent chance of Montreal shopping him, but I can't see Bergevin trading him. It'd be humiliating, especially with Subban getting the Norris nom.

Yea, I guess one major roadblock is Bergevin and him wanting to save as much face as possible on that Subban deal. It's a shame; I think it would work well (or some variation of that deal) for both teams.

I would stay away from Weber. Not sure why people want to fork out assets, take on a ridiculous contract for a guy that is fading, slowing down and going to be hurt more often than not. He wa great defenseman but those days are long gone. I personally don't think he has that many years left. He played hard and think it's starting to catch up on him. If his contract was reasonable or Mtl retained a huge chunk then maybe but otherwise I hope management stays away.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 11:23:05 AM
I would stay away from Weber. Not sure why people want to fork out assets, take on a ridiculous contract for a guy that is fading, slowing down and going to be hurt more often than not. He wa great defenseman but those days are long gone. I personally don't think he has that many years left. He played hard and think it's starting to catch up on him. If his contract was reasonable or Mtl retained a huge chunk then maybe but otherwise I hope management stays away.

Weber's still playing at a pretty high level. There's definitely some skating issues but he can pass the puck well enough to offset those, and playing beside a guy like Rielly would take a lot of pressure off him too.

This season he put up a 54.27% CF and scored 16 points in 26 games. Last season he still put up positive possession numbers in difficult minutes while dragging Alexei Emelin around and scored 42 points. He still definitely has a few more years left as a top pairing defenceman.

Obviously, a Doughty or Karlsson would be preferred but after that he's probably the best defenceman of those "rumoured" to be available.

His contract isn't great for sure (although given the last 3 years are at $1mil it's safe to assume he won't be playing those), but desperate times would call for desperate measures.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 11:26:56 AM
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
Don't be disrespectful.
No one is giving away grade A Dman with wonderful contracts. Throw out solutions not shade.

Perhaps WIGWAL, and I, misunderstand your proposal.

Are you suggesting we trade one of Gardiner, Dermott, and Rielly, as well as Kapanen or Johnsson, in order to secure the services of Kris Russell?
I listed our valued trade chips and listed who I thought could be possibly available from other teams. For Kris I would say picks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on April 27, 2018, 11:28:11 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 11:30:00 AM
Carlton's take is the correct take.

I also agree that it's going to be tough to get him, given the habs media will directly compare the return to a return on Subban.

But having said that, the habs say they're rebuilding, so I would have to think they'd definitely listen to offers. 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 11:44:52 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 11:45:18 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
If he retires it's not on us.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on April 27, 2018, 11:52:02 AM
Put me in the acquiring Weber group if he can be had. He'd be serviceable on the Leafs even if his play is in decline.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 11:56:56 AM
Leave Weber alone, to old and injury prone.

Prior to this season he never missed more then 4 games for 9 straight seasons. Given his style of play that's actually pretty remarkable.
If he retires it's not on us.

This is another reason I don't think it's thaaaat big of a risk. You can probably get Montreal to retain a bit of that cap hit too. Obviously the "aesthetics" of the deal is the main sticking point here. If Weber had been an FA signing for them, this could have been an easy move.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 27, 2018, 12:10:36 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 12:25:50 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 12:31:10 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 12:42:58 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.

Cap space really isn't an issue next season:  https://capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

I'm looking at low asset cost options to fill the 3rd line centre job, but with some offensive upside.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 12:57:40 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 01:09:32 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick

I will take this post as an invitation to debate further in a respectful manner.

You're an absolutely bananas crazy person on the defense lineup you posted there. 

I don't think Nylander ends up at centre, especially after the past 7 games.  And really, Aaltonen might fill the 4th line spot, or maybe not.  I think he'd be a backup plan, at best.

I'm all for going after Tavares and Thornton, but I think that's a long shot.  I'm more thinking of Spezza as a 3rd line centre, assuming we strike out on those 2 guys.

Where we'll agree is that if they want a quality RHD, it'll cost us a very good roster player.  I'd be fine with that, as long as his name isn't Auston or Mitch.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 01:14:20 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.
And 7.5 million in cap hit. No thanks.

Cap space really isn't an issue next season:  https://capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

I'm looking at low asset cost options to fill the 3rd line centre job, but with some offensive upside.
I realize that but Spezza is hardly an offensive guy going by last year's stats.
78 GP   8G    18A    26PTS   -12 .... I can't see the Leafs paying 7.5 million for that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 27, 2018, 01:24:57 PM
I like the idea of getting Tavares. The best defense is a good offense sort of thing. The defense still needs improvement, but maybe the improvement they would need if they signed Tavares would actually be available.

I also like the idea of getting a top guy like Doughty, but I don't know how realistic that is. So if the options are stay the course with the current roster give or take, sign Tavares, or lament not being able to land a top 1 defenseman. My pick is easy.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on April 27, 2018, 01:25:45 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:26:58 PM
I will take this post as an invitation to debate further in a respectful manner.

You're an absolutely bananas crazy person on the defense lineup you posted there. 

I don't think Nylander ends up at centre, especially after the past 7 games.  And really, Aaltonen might fill the 4th line spot, or maybe not.  I think he'd be a backup plan, at best.

I'm all for going after Tavares and Thornton, but I think that's a long shot.  I'm more thinking of Spezza as a 3rd line centre, assuming we strike out on those 2 guys.

Where we'll agree is that if they want a quality RHD, it'll cost us a very good roster player.  I'd be fine with that, as long as his name isn't Auston or Mitch.

Thank you for accepting my invitation to debate further.

Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

I think our front office knows better than to gauge a player on the performance in 7 games vs one team. Nylander was more than adequate during the season filling in for Matthews. A right shot centre also makes it easier to put Hyman back on the right side, which has additional dividends (Babcock likes the fetch guy to be on the off-wing of the centre because he doesn't need to puck as much).

Without an outside addition:
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
? - Aaltonen - Leivo
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:27:11 PM
I realize that but Spezza is hardly an offensive guy going by last year's stats.
78 GP   8G    18A    26PTS   -12 .... I can't see the Leafs paying 7.5 million for that.

He scored at a 60-point pace last season though, so it's not like he's that removed from being an offensive threat. This season his most common linemates were Mattias Janmark, Devin Shore, Brett Ritchie, Remi Elie, who I assume are all hockey players but don't hold me to that.

His positive possession numbers and crazy low shooting/on-ice shooting percentages would lead me to believe that there was a lot of bad luck involved this season. He'd be a good bounce back candidate next season. If the Leafs strike out on Tavares and Thornton, and Babcock still prefers Nylander on the wing, and Spezza comes cheap with maybe some salary retention involved, I'd definitely go for it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:28:16 PM
Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:29:28 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).

No doubt about that. Which is why I'm hoping Babcock spends a lot of time watching the Marlies work this post-season. Granted, the Marlies' depth is a couple steps up on the rest of the AHL. One of the first things Dubas did in the Soo was play a skilled and speedy 4th line to capitalize on traditional thinking.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 01:29:55 PM
This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.

Where did your faith go, friend?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 27, 2018, 01:31:37 PM
Where did your faith go, friend?

I still think that he'd be a fine bottom pairing/PK guy, but 65-25-2 suggests that that ship has definitely sailed here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on April 27, 2018, 01:32:58 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

I think Aaltonen and Bozak may not be Babcock's cup of tea on the 4th line.  My bet is he wants a Plekanec type- strong defensively, strong in the dot (Bozak does fill this but nothing else), and good PKer.

Now, if we get a 3rd line C that can fill that PK/defensive/dot criteria, then sure I can see Aaltonen being 4C (and Nylander staying on RW).

No doubt about that. Which is why I'm hoping Babcock spends a lot of time watching the Marlies work this post-season. Granted, the Marlies' depth is a couple steps up on the rest of the AHL. One of the first things Dubas did in the Soo was play a skilled and speedy 4th line to capitalize on traditional thinking.

Speed and skill vs brawn is not my argument.  Being defensively responsible and good on the PK generally means speed in today's NHL.  Its why Gauthier is never really going to be an option- unless his skating takes another huge leap.

Now, has Aaltonen improved on the PK/defensive aspects of his game enough to fill that role?  I don't watch enough Marlies game to know. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 01:36:48 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 01:48:42 PM
I think our centre deficiency doesn't require too much creativity to deal with.
Swing for the fences for Tavares. That's an easy one. If it doesn't work, see what Thornton is looking for for 1 year. Internally, the options are: Nylander, Aaltonen. 4C is either Aaltonen or cheap UFA filler (maybe even Bozak).

Improvements to the backend are where more creativity and assessment are required, because a real-deal player will require moving a real-deal player in return (which shuffles things). Zaitsev started to round into form this season, stilted a run as it was. I am not entirely ready to cut bait there unless a better opportunity lands in our laps.

I'd love to see Martin Marincin get a fresh new chance with the Leafs. He has looked good with Zaitsev in the past.

This honestly would not bother me, but probably isn't Babcock's cup of tea:
Rielly - Gardiner
Marincin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Carrick
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.
Agree. We need a change back there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on April 27, 2018, 01:58:44 PM
Our trade chips:
On D one of Gardiner/Dermott/Reilly and at W one of Kappi/Johnsson and picks.

Potential return (I tried to include only "realistic" targets, expiring contracts or teams looking for a shakeup):

Car: Faulk
Dal: Methot
Edm: Russell
LA: Doughty/Martinez/Muzzin
Min: Dumba (doubt it but maybe budget constraints?)
MTL: Petry/Weber (post firing of their GM)
NSH: Ellis (dream on)
Ott: Karlsson/Ceci
Phi: MacDonald
Pit: Oleksiak
SJ: Martin/Braun/Dillon
STL: Gunnarsson/Bouwmeester (actually think B is a fairly realistic option and the type of D Tor is lacking)
VAN: Edler/Del Zotto

Crossed out are guys the Leafs should not be considering, as they're not an upgrade defensively on the guys already available to them - and, in some cases, would be a downgrade.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:01:55 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:04:22 PM
Where did your faith go, friend?

I still think that he'd be a fine bottom pairing/PK guy, but 65-25-2 suggests that that ship has definitely sailed here.

I've been looking at this a bit... is it your locker combination?

I know it's games played.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 27, 2018, 02:12:29 PM
God and I both love Martin Marincin.  But ... no.

He and I also don't believe in the current blueline.  (Don't question God, herman, He told me He doesn't like it.)

OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.


Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on April 27, 2018, 02:19:14 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
The answer is simple this group's play the last two years. Current Group + Carrick + Marincin - Polak - Hainsey = still suck. How do you like those advanced analytics?

I feel we lean to heavily on offensive type Dman and need to improve our  defensive type Dman. I will admit improved play by Zaitsev will go along way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 27, 2018, 02:35:24 PM
I don't believe in the current group on the blueline.

Cool. Tell me why you believe that :) that is, if you have the time and want to elaborate.
The answer is simple this group's play the last two years. Current Group + Carrick + Marincin - Polak - Hainsey = still suck. How do you like those advanced analytics?

I feel we lean to heavily on offensive type Dman and need to improve our  defensive type Dman. I will admit improved play by Zaitsev will go along way.

What sucks about them? Their results? How they look?

I'm afraid all I was able to glean from your elaboration was why you were interested in some of the defensemen you had listed earlier.

It would help me understand better if you described the player you want to see on the team.

I'll start. These are the elements I want in our defenders.
1) skating: if you can't skate, bye! forwards, backwards, lateral moves, pivots. Is the skating efficient, or are you working against your own body and having to work extra hard, thus affecting stamina?
2) puck handling: can you buy yourself and supporting forwards a bit of extra time? if not, do you have another option that can cover for that? (see 1)
3) decision making: do you see your options well? do you use the right angles and speeds to cut off plays before they begin, or extend possession?
4) good at getting the puck back: I don't particularly care how, but do you win possession for your team on a regular basis?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on April 27, 2018, 02:43:02 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 27, 2018, 03:04:20 PM
I wonder what LA does...I'm not sure that there'd be a better time to try and get out of Brown's contact.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 04:41:59 PM
I wonder what LA does...I'm not sure that there'd be a better time to try and get out of Brown's contact.
5.8 mill for 4 more years. Durable guy and had 61 points last year but the 3 previous weren't good as he averaged 30 points. Tough competitor but I think we're set on the wings tho.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 27, 2018, 04:49:54 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.

I really like the idea of that line. It would also free up Marner to play with Matthews and Nylander to centre the 3rd line, if need be. Guess it depends on the $ Nash wants. I like him but I feel he might have to be a fair bit overpaid to bring him here.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 27, 2018, 06:05:10 PM

I think people are going to have to come around to the fact that if they want the Leafs to make a major addition on the blueline they're not going to be able to be the choosiest beggars in the world. It's either going to involve paying through the nose or taking on someone with warts.

Not blueline, but speaking of warts, I bet Spezza could be had for peanuts to fill a hole at centre.

He's got 1 year to go, and he's due $7.5m real money.

I can get behind this idea. I wonder if we could somehow get a decent pick to come back with him? That fact that's he's only got one more year is perfect. I wonder what other players are in that situation that teams would like to get rid of?

Otherwise, I like getting Rick Nash and think Nash-Kadri-Kapanen could be a great shut-down line with real offensive potential.
I'd take Spezza for 1 year over Nash for anything over 1 year. I'm not a fan of Nash. He had the chance to come here before and he didn't want to. I believe it was when he was traded out of Columbus.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: gunnar36 on April 28, 2018, 09:10:54 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 28, 2018, 09:32:55 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Isn't Dotchin that dirty ass player who likes to injure Leafs? Knee on knees and stuff?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on April 28, 2018, 09:44:35 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Wasn't Coburn crap even in his Philly years?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: gunnar36 on April 28, 2018, 09:53:40 AM
I would be kicking the tires on Coburn from Lightning.
They are loaded on the back end with guys signed thru next year and you might be able to pry him away.

Otherwise a guy like Jake Dotchin may be available for little return as he currently can't get into lineup. He would add toughness in place of Polak.

Andrej Sustr is a capable dman and a Ufa. He's also 6'7", and able to defend well with his size and reach....might be another good 3rd pair option and PK guy with Hainsy.
Wasn't Coburn crap even in his Philly years?

Obviously, not in the eyes of Tampa who gave up a fair bit to aquire him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 28, 2018, 02:08:32 PM
OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.

Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares

I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

Get Tavares though and I'd be happy to send Nylander to southern California or Carolina or Nashville.

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis
Gardiner - Dermott
Hainsey - Zaitsev Liljegren
Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 28, 2018, 02:16:36 PM
If you want a current top pair dman it’ll likely cost one of the triplets or multiple picks and prospects.

The best bet is probably fishing around the fringes of NHL teams who have someone with real potential stashed in the minors/Europe due to a lack of opportunity on their big club.

There is also the option to take a RFA that a parent club can’t pay a raise.

At that point a talented winger prospect and a good pick might shake something of real value loose.

Looking at other teams bottom pairing players as a solution is probably not the answer.

Nashville’s #5 and #6 are horrific.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 28, 2018, 11:36:27 PM
OK, I'll give this lineup thing a spin, using my earlier suggestion of dealing Kadri coupled with trading Gardiner, not because "he sucks!" but because with have two other similar LHs in Rielly and Dermott.

Hyman - Matthews - Kapanen
Marleau - Tavares (or Bozak/Spezza etc.) - Marner
Johnsson - Nylander - Brown
from Kadri or Gardiner trade - Aaltonen/Moore - Leivo or new

Rielly / RHD from Kadri trade
Dermott / RHD from Gardiner trade
Hainsey / Zaitsev
spares

I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

Get Tavares though and I'd be happy to send Nylander to southern California or Carolina or Nashville.

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis
Gardiner - Dermott
Hainsey - Zaitsev Liljegren

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on April 29, 2018, 10:17:01 AM

How is everyone in Edmonton so dumb?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 29, 2018, 12:26:14 PM
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, here’s the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

That’s it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 29, 2018, 02:33:49 PM
I would marry this article if I could.

https://theathletic.com/333126/2018/04/29/maple-leafs-path-to-improvement-includes-obvious-lessons-from-bruins-series-plus-a-dose-of-perspective/

Quote
To help put things in perspective, here’s the list of NHL defencemen who led their team in Controlled Zone Exit%, put up over 50 points and had a positive impact on shots and scoring chances relative to their teammates while playing above-average competition:

Drew Doughty
Erik Karlsson
Roman Josi
Shayne Gostisbehere
Jake Gardiner

That’s it.

...

At the end of the day, Toronto was a top-10 team that ran into a top-five team in the first round and still pushed them to seven games despite missing Nazem Kadri for three games. They have an excellent young core, tons of cap flexibility this off-season and a wealth of young talent ready to step into bigger roles next year.

The future is looking bright for the Leafs, as long as they rationally address their needs this summer.

I think there's a good living to be made writing articles reassuring Leafs fans that all will be well.  Eventually.   ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 29, 2018, 03:19:49 PM
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 29, 2018, 08:10:27 PM
I'm fairly certain that there are only 3 pieces in the Leafs organization that'd land a top-pairing RHD. And Kadri ain't one of em.

[snip]

Rielly - Pesce/Faulk/Manson/Montour/Doughty/Ellis

[snip]

Kadri + another non-34/29/16 asset could very well bring a RHD that would be on our top pair.  I never said it would be Kadri alone.

I guess it depends on what we mean by "top pairing RHD."

The names I'm thinking of move the needle -- they're substantial upgrades. For them, you'd need to trade a dollar for a dollar.

That's different than "a RHD that would be on our top pair" which describes, well, Zaitsev. I'm sure you're aiming higher than that though. Folks keep mentioning Tanev as a meaningful upgrade -- a player who not only "would" be on the top pair but also maybe even should be -- and perhaps Kadri, a talented young winger, and picks gets something like that...

Yes, that's exactly my meaning. Kadri + Brown ++, perhaps.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on April 29, 2018, 08:23:57 PM
What we're trading Kadri? We better sign Tavares first
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 29, 2018, 08:28:47 PM
What we're trading Kadri?

See, the Leafs didn't trade JVR. So now, when people try to come up with credible trades to include their defense they have to do things like include Kadri( a 30 goal scorer locked into a reasonable contract) in the absence of the sort of assets they could have had at no appreciable downside to the team.

This is the sort of thing a mismanaged team does/has to do if they want to address their issues.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 29, 2018, 10:57:07 PM
Not trading JVR by all accounts is a mistake, who knows what was offered, but this team is far from mismanaged.
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 30, 2018, 12:41:39 AM
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Which is fine enough to say but then if they don't add another C then we're back to the reality of them not having much in the way of assets to move for a significant upgrade on D that wouldn't ultimately be zero-sum. And even if they do add another C Kadri is still a valuable piece they wouldn't have to move.

So, again, being as mismanaged as they were this year will put them in a lousy situation this offseason that was largely avoidable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 30, 2018, 08:37:35 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 30, 2018, 08:44:45 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on April 30, 2018, 10:37:55 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival. So keeping a 36-goal scorer for a playoff run and letting them walk in the offseason isn't exactly a crazy decision. Sure, it didn't work out, but I don't see how that's blatant mismanagement.

No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on April 30, 2018, 10:44:10 AM
Mismanaged is a strong word. Yes, it would have been better to trade JVR. I was on board with that. But they decided to take a risk instead. See if they could do something in the playoffs. One positive may be the loss of some blue and white glasses in management when evaluating this team.

There would have been backlash had they traded JVR and then lost to Boston in seven. Public, and player, perception has to be a factor. Maybe they wanted to trade him and felt handcuffed as a 105 point team that would be questioned about trading its top goal scorer as they neared the playoffs.

If you're handcuffed into a bad decision by a good season, maybe you're mismanaging public, or player, perception? We don't hear as much about building for a future of perpetual contender status anymore, which I find odd.

Maybe they're not 'mismanaged' -- save that for signing Clarkson or trading for Bolland -- but managed in a cowardly, over-cautious, unimaginative, and short-sighted fashion.

Trading JVR, even without anything that immediately improves the defense coming back, was the right move. The Leafs will need to have lots of talented depth on ELCs to be contenders, and they don't get that through poor asset management.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 30, 2018, 10:51:45 AM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

The idea that a team that had never won a playoff round was somehow this year going to bull its way past some combo of BOS or TBL was fairly magical thinking.  No doubt other factors, all of them already discussed here, went into the decision to retain JVR.  But at the root, failing to trade him was a failure to follow the supposed Plan.  And that's the same mistake we've been making since forever.

By all objective accounts, this Leafs team was not considered likely to go deep.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on April 30, 2018, 10:53:13 AM
No matter what he did in the playoffs, there would be a school of thought that says trading him was the best option. Not in a direct 'we can use JVR to improve our defense' but in a total asset management capacity. He could have been traded for something, instead, he walks for nothing. If that something was a third-round pick then, ya, better to keep him and let him walk for free.

Trading him wouldn't have been with the mindset of improving the team now, it would have been asset management. Knowing what we know now and assuming he walks in free agency, would you go back and trade him for a 1st round pick and a prospect? Maybe that deal, or a similar deal, wasn't available, that's another potential reason to not trade him for sure.

I also don't like the term mismanage in this case, but I do think they got a bit greedy with this year's playoff run. But again, that assumes there was a trade to be made. I still think the 'we give up' message that would misconstrued by fans and possibly players was a factor too.

Put me in that school. I'm disappointed they didn't trade him for the highest offer, regardless of how low it was. And I don't believe for a second there weren't interested teams.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 30, 2018, 10:59:32 AM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

It depends on what the front office considers long term value, and I think it's pretty clear they highly value playoff experience (even when, and maybe especially when, you get burned). Through their lens, it can be argued they were looking short-term on this season, but long-term for the development of their core.

They should have traded JvR two seasons ago but the injury during the tank drive derailed that opportunity and then nothing really landed in offseasons thereafter. After a certain cut-off, there was more value in keeping JvR/Bozak to 'insulate' (haha) the kids.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on April 30, 2018, 11:40:20 AM
As for Kadri leaving, not happening unless they sign another centre.

Which is fine enough to say but then if they don't add another C then we're back to the reality of them not having much in the way of assets to move for a significant upgrade on D that wouldn't ultimately be zero-sum. And even if they do add another C Kadri is still a valuable piece they wouldn't have to move.

So, again, being as mismanaged as they were this year will put them in a lousy situation this offseason that was largely avoidable.

If I could just jump in here, the Leafs are also short a 2nd round pick for Plec.

And I think it was pretty universal around here that doing that made no sense if they didn't address the D-man problem...and they didn't end up addressing the d-man problem.

Even at the trade deadline, most pundits had them as underdogs against either TB or Boston.  Understanding where the weaknesses were, they should have addressed those if they really wanted to take a run.  Keeping JVR and the other expiring contracts was only a smart option if they addressed those weaknesses. Instead, they decided to burn a high pick on a depth centreman, keep all the UFA contracts, and not address their biggest need.

I said it at the time, the deadline activity of the Leafs was mismanaged, and now they've got to act from a position of less-strength than they would have had if they'd done what most of us wanted done.  You either go for it, or you don't, but the Leafs tried to go down the middle, and the result is pretty much what I thought it would be.

Now the Leafs are left with UFA's walking for nothing, and down a 2nd round pick, and have the same weaknesses to address, plus the holes to fill of the departing UFAs.

I can't imagine this result is what was "planned" for, but it's the result that first came to mind to me when the deadline buzzer went at 3pm on Feb 26th.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on April 30, 2018, 11:54:18 AM
Lou Gone per @LeafsPR
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 30, 2018, 12:25:15 PM
The failure to trade JVR is a sign that Shanahan isn't as fully committed to the long-term plan as he says he is publicly.  Three years ago it was, "there will be pain."  And there was.  But what they should have kept emphasizing is, "there must be patience."  That mantra got reduced to lip service after we hit the AM34 jackpot.

It depends on what the front office considers long term value, and I think it's pretty clear they highly value playoff experience (even when, and maybe especially when, you get burned). Through their lens, it can be argued they were looking short-term on this season, but long-term for the development of their core.

They should have traded JvR two seasons ago but the injury during the tank drive derailed that opportunity and then nothing really landed in offseasons thereafter. After a certain cut-off, there was more value in keeping JvR/Bozak to 'insulate' (haha) the kids.

If this is the reality then all I can say is that I hope the Dubas Era® means the end of this kind of Fancy Dan psychologizing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 30, 2018, 01:48:10 PM
I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset

For the record, they had a long time to trade JVR. I don't think the criticism here is just "they didn't trade him at the deadline" but rather that they never traded him despite having two whole years where it would have made sense to.

to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR

Not really. Unless you're going to make the argument that for some reason the return on JVR would have been, effectively, the lowest return in history for a 30 goal scorer as opposed a reasonable median return then it's still better than nothing.

, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

At the deadline? Sure. But, again, A) I'm not saying the only time they should have dealt him was at the deadline and B) I'm not saying they needed to make a direct "JVR for a defenseman" trade. They could trade JVR for picks/prospects and then hang onto those valuable picks/prospects until a suitable defenseman became available. There wasn't a limited window of time here.

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival.

And what? If, say, JVR had been dealt to a Western conference team then the downside is...that somehow people would regret it if the team that was already a longshot to make it out of the first round somehow made it to the Stanley Cup finals and just happened to play the team they traded him to? Or to a Metro team they made it to the ECF against?

I'm pretty critical of the Leafs management here but I think presenting that as a serious issue that they considered and let influence their "Should we get anything for JVR" decision makes them look worse than anything i'm accusing them of.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: A Weekend at Bernier's on April 30, 2018, 02:38:14 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 30, 2018, 02:47:55 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: A Weekend at Bernier's on April 30, 2018, 02:56:06 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

Thanks, Nik.  Your assessment of the Leafs mishandling of their pending UFAs, to me, is bang on and relevant here.  And while I suppose there is somewhat of an argument to be made in the Leafs' case - ie. playoff run and all - the same can't be said for the current incarnation of the Coyotes.  My limited experience of watching OEL notwithstanding, I do like the player and left-handed shot aside I think would fit in just about perfectly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 30, 2018, 03:02:28 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.
Hainsey is a left shot and was our top RD this season....And yeah it wasn't ideal being a lefty but it did force Babs to use him there. Gord Miller, on Leafs Lunch, said a similar thing today regarding his favourites like Komarov, Polak. The GM can somewhat dictate who he wants to play by taking away his options by removing the favs from the team.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 30, 2018, 03:08:20 PM

Fair point re: Hainsey but the way I recall it was that he was fairly used to playing his offside. I'm sure you could acquire any LHD and ask them to do that but I'm not sure all of them would be equally proficient there.

Also, I think you'd agree, that whoever eventually is the GM making those decisions here it would be a pretty bold move to force that sort of thing on Babcock as one of their opening gambits.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on April 30, 2018, 03:32:34 PM

Fair point re: Hainsey but the way I recall it was that he was fairly used to playing his offside. I'm sure you could acquire any LHD and ask them to do that but I'm not sure all of them would be equally proficient there.

Also, I think you'd agree, that whoever eventually is the GM making those decisions here it would be a pretty bold move to force that sort of thing on Babcock as one of their opening gambits.
Definitely agree it would be bold but ultimately it has to be his choice. Would make for some interesting board meetings tho! I do get what Miller was saying tho. I think it's easier now that some of Babs' favs are UFAs. If Dubas doesn't like Leo, he simply doesn't bring him back. I think the best thing is Dubas knows the Marlies inside and out and probably the ECHL guys to, as he's been watching them all year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on April 30, 2018, 06:09:48 PM
I mean, if JVR torched the Bruins and/or was an integral piece of a long playoff run would it still be considered a mismanagement? I don't know, I can certainly understand wanting to use JVR as a deadline asset

For the record, they had a long time to trade JVR. I don't think the criticism here is just "they didn't trade him at the deadline" but rather that they never traded him despite having two whole years where it would have made sense to.

to ultimately improve the defense but that assumes a lot of things about a) what the return specifically is for JVR

Not really. Unless you're going to make the argument that for some reason the return on JVR would have been, effectively, the lowest return in history for a 30 goal scorer as opposed a reasonable median return then it's still better than nothing.

, and b) what defender is available and at what cost? Is it not possible that a deal for a significant d upgrade just wasn't available/feasible?

At the deadline? Sure. But, again, A) I'm not saying the only time they should have dealt him was at the deadline and B) I'm not saying they needed to make a direct "JVR for a defenseman" trade. They could trade JVR for picks/prospects and then hang onto those valuable picks/prospects until a suitable defenseman became available. There wasn't a limited window of time here.

And then you add in the fact that you'd be shipping out JVR to strengthen a potential opponent/rival.

And what? If, say, JVR had been dealt to a Western conference team then the downside is...that somehow people would regret it if the team that was already a longshot to make it out of the first round somehow made it to the Stanley Cup finals and just happened to play the team they traded him to? Or to a Metro team they made it to the ECF against?

I'm pretty critical of the Leafs management here but I think presenting that as a serious issue that they considered and let influence their "Should we get anything for JVR" decision makes them look worse than anything i'm accusing them of.

Sorry about this large post but I actually don't know how to break up the quotes and reply to them individually  :-\

Just to clarify, I was not only in the 'move JVR this deadline' camp but also in the 'move him two years ago' one. Maybe it's just when I hear the use of mismanagement I begin to think of the Komisarek, Liles, Lupul, Phaneuf and Clarkson deals of recent years, and the crazy amount of bungling the years preceding those. Anyway I guess until these misfires or missed opportunities begin to pile up, I'm a bit wary of throwing out too much criticism on a situation that though ultimately mishandled, wasn't too egregious imo. It's not like they missed they playoffs by a long shot and still kept the Sedins  :-X
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on April 30, 2018, 06:32:30 PM
You can break up the quote however you want using the quote tags
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 30, 2018, 07:27:45 PM
Just to clarify, I was not only in the 'move JVR this deadline' camp but also in the 'move him two years ago' one. Maybe it's just when I hear the use of mismanagement I begin to think of the Komisarek, Liles, Lupul, Phaneuf and Clarkson deals of recent years, and the crazy amount of bungling the years preceding those.

There's no right or wrong, really, with how one might individually categorize how the team's being run but personally I feel ok with saying they weren't very well run last year while leaving the possibility open that they may be well run again in the future. I don't think we need to lock ourselves into binaries of good or bad management. Like I said, I think last year the team got ahead of itself and thought they could start skipping important steps on the road to competing seriously. Hopefully getting knocked out of the first round(and certain people not being there anymore) will take the team back to more of the smart/creative thinking we've seen in the past.

Anyway I guess until these misfires or missed opportunities begin to pile up, I'm a bit wary of throwing out too much criticism on a situation that though ultimately mishandled, wasn't too egregious imo. It's not like they missed they playoffs by a long shot and still kept the Sedins  :-X

I very much understand looking at what a reasonable return might have been for JVR, say a mid-late 1st and prospect, and saying that not having either of those things isn't a catastrophe but I do think that's a little bit like not really caring about your credit card bill until payment's due.

The reason I brought it up in this thread is that with a few looming questions for the team in terms of improvement from where they are to where they want to be and internal options looking limited to say the least the Leafs are in sort of a tricky position. In looking at how to add a top tier D or improvements up the middle we're not saying "Look at all of these surplus assets from dealing pending UFA's" but rather "Maybe they'd take Kadri and some draft picks".

It's only when some of those moves actually get made(or not) and we see the resulting holes on the roster they leave that the real opportunity cost of not moving JVR and his pals will really become apparent.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2018, 02:59:23 AM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 01, 2018, 11:43:44 AM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Dubas can do this by simply not signing the plug in the first place.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2018, 12:52:31 PM
Wondering if OEL might be a reasonable option for the Leafs to pursue this summer.  Seems to tick a lot of boxes, can likely fill 1'st pairing, eats minutes, relatively young (27 in July), and acquisition cost might not be the over-the-moon variety.  I would think a deal would revolve around a non-16/29/34 piece sprinkled liberally with draft picks and non-Liljegren Marlies.

He's a LHD so unless Babcock has a big change of heart about these things his being a 1st pairing guy would depend on him being better than Rielly and Gardiner which might be true but doesn't seem like a sure thing.

Also, I think if he could be had for that sort of return I don't think he'd still be in Arizona. Just about everything I'd read when sporadic rumours of his availability came up was that the Coyotes wanted a pretty heavy price for him.

I hope GM Dubas starts every Babcock meeting with an hour long presentation from the stat nerd department that demonstrates Rielly or Dermott on his 'wrong' side better than any of Zaitsev, Hainsey, Polak, or whatever other plug the coach has fall in love with next year.
Dubas can do this by simply not signing the plug in the first place.

I wonder if Babcock can hand out "personal service contracts" at his own discretion.  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 01, 2018, 01:15:53 PM
I wonder if Babcock can hand out "personal service contracts" at his own discretion.  ;D

Only if he pays for them out of his own pocket... which I mean he could probably afford to do.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 05, 2018, 12:14:07 PM
Anybody keep up on Stastny?
Would it be worthwhile to sign him and turn around and use Kadri as a trade chip?

Example:
Sign Stastny, say 4 yrs at 5M
Trade Kadri to Nashville for Ellis
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 05, 2018, 12:26:23 PM
Anybody keep up on Stastny?
Would it be worthwhile to sign him and turn around and use Kadri as a trade chip?

Example:
Sign Stastny, say 4 yrs at 5M
Trade Kadri to Nashville for Ellis

I'm not saying he's worth it but I'd be pretty surprised if his AAV doesn't start with a 6.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 05, 2018, 12:52:21 PM

Hmmm. It's funny if Carlson wasn't coming off a crazy career high season I might have been more interested. The money he's going to get off this one year though will be insane.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 05, 2018, 03:59:31 PM
I'm not saying he's worth it but I'd be pretty surprised if his AAV doesn't start with a 6.

That's why I put a 4 year term.  He's 32, so I was hoping the term could get his AAV down.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 08:53:14 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 09:47:26 AM
So here's a trade idea... with John Carlson being so instrumental in Washington's success this year, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, I wonder if it forces them to re-sign him. In which case, they would need to clear salary to make room. With that in mind...

Zaitsev+ for Niskanen and Orpik

Niskanen has 3 years left on his contract at $5.75mil and Orpik has 1 year left at $5.5mil. Orpik is a clear salary dump, while Niskanen is pretty valuable to the team (he plays on their shutdown pairing with Orlov). But in this situation they'd basically be picking Carlson over Niskanen.

So Washington opens up $6.75mil in cap space here and gets a cheaper/younger replacement for Niskanen. Zaitsev also fits into the whole Russian-vibe that Washington has going on. Like I've said every time I bring up trading Zaitsev... this obviously relies on the Caps viewing Zaitsev more like Babcock does as opposed to how I do, which is probably a fair assumption.

Not sure what the "+" would be in this case, but I don't think it would be something significant (i.e. not a 1st/Kapanen/Johnsson/Brown).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Dappleganger on May 08, 2018, 10:17:12 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?

I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.
 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 08, 2018, 11:24:08 AM
If Lou goes to the Island, how long do you think it will be until Josh Ho-Sang is freed up? Would you acquire him?

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 02:53:46 PM

He had the exact same knee injuries two years in a row? Ok... maybe I'm not that interested anymore.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 08, 2018, 02:58:47 PM

He had the exact same knee injuries two years in a row? Ok... maybe I'm not that interested anymore.
Sharks smarks... you're as good as signed in T dot O dot.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 03:13:17 PM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 08, 2018, 03:23:59 PM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 08, 2018, 03:27:30 PM
Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Same. Not interested in giving up any of the better prospects for him. I'd even be leery about a 2nd round pick, as his numbers in the AHL and his brief NHL stints don't exactly jump out as impressive. But 3rd round pick or later? Absolutely.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 08, 2018, 03:30:23 PM
Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.

(http://www.paraserbella.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/happy-cry-gif-16.gif)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 08, 2018, 05:35:04 PM
Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Same. Not interested in giving up any of the better prospects for him. I'd even be leery about a 2nd round pick, as his numbers in the AHL and his brief NHL stints don't exactly jump out as impressive. But 3rd round pick or later? Absolutely.

I'm staying far away from this topic...so far away.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 09:09:28 AM
I'd pass. Has talent but too many question marks there.

Worth the risk if you can get him cheap.

Depends on the price for me. 2nd or 3rd rd pick? No brainer. If they take him for a cast off prospect (or freebie) like Nielsen/Marchment/Moore, easy peasy.

Scoring skill and automatic carry entries doesn't grow on trees.

Martin for Ho-Sang. Boom.

Ho-Sang definitely wouldn't fit into the new Isles culture with Lou as the helm.  Martin has proven to be a real gud Lou soldier.  I like this deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: PCB on May 09, 2018, 09:18:30 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 10:17:57 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Kadri would take him under his wing.  He's learned in the school of hard knocks.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 10:24:01 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Young, highly skilled players (many from the GTA)? Shepherded by a quiet lead-by-example team dad, driven by a high pick yo-yo who previously had a run-in or two with the front office (for being late to practice) and is also a player of colour (https://www.mcgilldaily.com/2018/01/media-coverage-of-black-players-reveals-hockeys-race-problem/) from one of the most multi-cultural neighbourhoods in the NHL? All steered by a coach with an even bigger ego with the credentials and work-ethic to back it up?

I kind of want to see that here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 09, 2018, 10:50:26 AM
But would Ho-sang fit into the Leafs current culture?

Young, highly skilled players (many from the GTA)? Shepherded by a quiet lead-by-example team dad, driven by a high pick yo-yo who previously had a run-in or two with the front office (for being late to practice) and is also a player of colour (https://www.mcgilldaily.com/2018/01/media-coverage-of-black-players-reveals-hockeys-race-problem/) from one of the most multi-cultural neighbourhoods in the NHL? All steered by a coach with an even bigger ego with the credentials and work-ethic to back it up?

I kind of want to see that here.

Also, the whole "culture is over-rated" thing that leads us to poke fun at Lou's rules and such.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:05:36 AM
Also, the whole "culture is over-rated" thing that leads us to poke fun at Lou's rules and such.

A lot of it is silly, but there were a few things I appreciated from Lou, especially coming from the way things were going before: baseline stability, unified messaging. I think they're in a much better shape to add players without their perceived personalities tipping anything over.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 11:09:03 AM
Or, to move this away from the over-used and often coded concept of "culture", even the more innocuous hypothetical of whether or not Ho-sang is the worst version of what he's been painted as seems to not be a big deal.

If he bristles at constructive coaching or sleeps in or parties or whatever then I genuinely think that it's not an issue if the team you already have has a good make-up and is well-coached. Either that group works to rehabilitate someone or they isolate them and don't let the bad habits spread. The downside ultimately being no more than just a risk not paying off.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 11:14:38 AM
A lot of it is silly, but there were a few things I appreciated from Lou, especially coming from the way things were going before: baseline stability, unified messaging. I think they're in a much better shape to add players without their perceived personalities tipping anything over.

What are some examples of disparate messaging from previous GMs?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:24:09 AM
What are some examples of disparate messaging from previous GMs?

Rampant trade rumours (clearly originating from the front office), publicly airing out disagreements between players and coaches (which are normal), a bit of throwing each other under the bus (Burke/Wilson), all on top of having a bad on-ice product.

I didn't like losing direct access to people like Dubas and Hunter and the assistant coaches because I enjoy the tactical and managerial side of the game, but I am okay with them clamping things down for this period of time after what came before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 11:27:20 AM
Rampant trade rumours (clearly originating from the front office), publicly airing out disagreements between players and coaches (which are normal), a bit of throwing each other under the bus (Burke/Wilson), all on top of having a bad on-ice product.

I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 09, 2018, 11:38:37 AM
I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.

Mixed messaging might just be me phrasing my idea incorrectly. Maybe 'messy' is the better term.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 11:54:30 AM
I can see why someone might choose to not like some of those things(trade rumours though?) and how they might imply a discordant front office but I suppose I never really saw that as mixed messaging. If anything, I always thought Burke was very straightforward and certain in his policies, even if they were the wrong ones.

Mixed messaging might just be me phrasing my idea incorrectly. Maybe 'messy' is the better term.

Maybe, but I'm not sure how you could completely separate that from the larger issue with the team and it's direction. Things were messy with Burke because things weren't going well. Likewise, I think things currently would be a bit messier if the Leafs had drafted Puljujarvi instead of Matthews.

I get the idea that, you know, if you're working in an office and your last boss was a disorganized mess that when a new hire starts coming up with rules about what angle your pen should be at if you leave it on a desk it can give the impression of an attention to detail or whatever but it's still fundamentally crazy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 12:53:06 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 09, 2018, 12:57:33 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 01:05:10 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

For all the GMing that needs doing?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 09, 2018, 01:22:53 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.

What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

For all the GMing that needs doing?

I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.  If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward.  It's always best to have your power structure well defined well ahead of any important dates.  I know that Shanahan is the top of the power chain, but unless he's carrying out the GM duties currently, things will slip.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 01:32:28 PM
I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Both of those plans can be set up as contingencies for if and when they need to be actually implemented.

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.

I doubt there's much in the way of specific talk going on while hockey is still being played. Especially as lots of teams are conducting their own internal reviews/hiring processes. I don't think trades are such complicated beasts that you need a month's lead time to get them done pre-draft.

If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward. 

That seems like a beyond easy problem to solve. Preliminary discussions can go through Shanahan just like they'd have gone through Lamoriello before. All throughout Lamoriello's tenure we heard how much of what went on was a collaborative process. That still goes on just without Hunter or Dubas in the role of final decision maker because there aren't final decisions to be made.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 09, 2018, 05:41:13 PM
I think there's a lot that has to be done before the draft especially in sorting out the roles and the fallout coming from the decision of who becomes GM.  If the rumors are true and Hunter looks to leave if Dubas gets the job (or vice versa), then a succession plan will have to be put in place to replace one of those 2 as assistant GM (and GM of the Marlies).

Both of those plans can be set up as contingencies for if and when they need to be actually implemented.

Even though playoffs are ongoing, I believe other teams can still talk to each other about frameworks for trades going forward, you'd probably want to start discussions earlier on that, like way before the draft if you're thinking of making any deals during the draft weekend.

I doubt there's much in the way of specific talk going on while hockey is still being played. Especially as lots of teams are conducting their own internal reviews/hiring processes. I don't think trades are such complicated beasts that you need a month's lead time to get them done pre-draft.

If other GMs have no idea who the Leafs GM is, they don't know who they should be talking to, and nothing will move forward. 

That seems like a beyond easy problem to solve. Preliminary discussions can go through Shanahan just like they'd have gone through Lamoriello before. All throughout Lamoriello's tenure we heard how much of what went on was a collaborative process. That still goes on just without Hunter or Dubas in the role of final decision maker because there aren't final decisions to be made.

I'm not convinced that there isn't a fair bit of General Managing to do.  The draft is only a week before July 1st...I would imagine that there would have to be a plan on who they're letting walk, and who they're going to try and sign to fill some of the bigger holes.  I'd figure a guy taking over that role would want, at least, a discussion on whether or not Bozak and JVR get deals.

Nylander is also a guy that needs a deal, and I can't imagine that would be something they want to drag out.

I don't for a second believe that there aren't discussions going on between teams, even if things don't get finalized until after the Cup is handed over.

The incoming GM has some decisions to make on the defense situation, I hope.  And if this is the case, it'd be nice if he had a feel for what the market is like for some of his players before he has to decide on what to do July 1st...and given that, teams get to speak with these guys a week beforehand, right?  So you'd need to decide on who you want to get in line with likely before the draft.



Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 06:00:29 PM

Yeah, again, I really don't see how any of that stuff isn't A) something they can be doing without anyone in the big chair or B) something that can be managed if they only name their GM in late May or early June.

Seriously, why does there need to be someone with the GM title for there to be an internal discussion on JVR or Bozak? Or in what way is the Nylander stuff complicated? They're going to re-sign him, they probably have a number relatively sketched out...why would the negotiations be something Shanahan couldn't delegate?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 09, 2018, 06:14:25 PM

Yeah, again, I really don't see how any of that stuff isn't A) something they can be doing without anyone in the big chair or B) something that can be managed if they only name their GM in late May or early June.

Seriously, why does there need to be someone with the GM title for there to be an internal discussion on JVR or Bozak? Or in what way is the Nylander stuff complicated? They're going to re-sign him, they probably have a number relatively sketched out...why would the negotiations be something Shanahan couldn't delegate?

Who has the internal discussion?  The 2 guys wanting the job?  Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong? What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence? 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 09, 2018, 06:23:17 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bender on May 09, 2018, 06:36:24 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
And in In Bruges!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on May 09, 2018, 06:43:04 PM
Who has the internal discussion?

I assume the usual group that would discuss these things only minus Lamoriello. So Shanahan, Dubas, Hunter, maybe Pridham, Babcock, etc...

Who's responsible for the result, or really, who would want to be if it goes wrong?

If what goes wrong? A discussion? Again, you're confusing the need for a discussion with the need for a decision.

What if the discussion leads to wanting to retain JVR, then who deals with the term and number?  Does the next guy even agree with that?

Well, to answer the first question...Shanahan could assign that to anyone if a decision desperately needed to be made...but it doesn't. They can, however, still have an internal discussion so opinions are made and an attempt at a consensus formed. They did stuff like this pre-Lamoriello, they can do it now that he's gone.

This is kind of a silly conversation, but really, in the position the Leafs are in, you don't go long without somebody calling the shots, and being responsible for the result.

Right? The Leafs need someone in charge who can make decisions if they absolutely need to be made. I thought they had someone like that. Brendan...something Irish? I typed that into google and all I got was this guy:

(https://www.biography.com/.image/ar_1:1%2Cc_fill%2Ccs_srgb%2Cg_face%2Cq_auto:good%2Cw_300/MTE5NDg0MDU0NzQwNzY0MTc1/brendan-gleeson-215220-1-402.jpg)

So maybe it's him? True, his wikipedia entry doesn't say much about hockey but he was great in Garda.

If there really wasn't much to be done in the off-season, then really, what has Lou done since September that's of consequence?

"The offseason" ≠ May.
And in In Bruges!

Damn, I was just about to post that!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 11, 2018, 11:04:01 AM
Thorton quotes: “I bleed teal and I want to come back and I know I'm going to be healthy when I come back. I'm sure we can figure something out, but I want to come back.”

I was hopefully the Leafs could lure him for a year but I am sure the Sharks and Jumbo Joe will figure it out.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 11, 2018, 11:11:27 AM
Thorton quotes: “I bleed teal and I want to come back and I know I'm going to be healthy when I come back. I'm sure we can figure something out, but I want to come back.”

I was hopefully the Leafs could lure him for a year but I am sure the Sharks and Jumbo Joe will figure it out.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work (http://www.thehockeynews.com/news/article/thornton-willing-to-take-pay-cut-but-sharks-might-need-deep-discount-to-make-it-work)

I was always a big Thornton-guy, but his injury history the past 2 seasons make it a hard pass for me now. Knee issues for a guy his age are a big red-flag. Just look at Robidas.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: bustaheims on May 11, 2018, 11:53:12 AM
I was always a big Thornton-guy, but his injury history the past 2 seasons make it a hard pass for me now. Knee issues for a guy his age are a big red-flag. Just look at Robidas.

Yeah. Especially since it's both knees, not just the one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on May 12, 2018, 02:48:23 PM
What the hell is Shanahan waiting for? Are we getting a GM announced this week?

Probably not, no. Honestly, don't expect anything until much closer to the draft.
Wrong again busta! ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 12, 2018, 04:02:12 PM
Yeah, I stand by my initial assessment...there's a lot of work to do well before the draft and the beginning of free agency...especially if Dubas wants to make some immediate changes in personnel.  And they may be without Hunter soon, so that'll be another hole they need to fill, and bring that guy up to speed. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 12, 2018, 06:24:25 PM

I have to imagine that the majority of their amateur scouting work will be done by now so whoever replaces Hunter will likely not have much to do pre-draft outside of being another voice in the room.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: pmrules on May 12, 2018, 11:48:17 PM

I have to imagine that the majority of their amateur scouting work will be done by now so whoever replaces Hunter will likely not have much to do pre-draft outside of being another voice in the room.

Agreed that the amateur scouting is done, however, I think a Kyle & Mark/XXX draft strategy will look slightly different than a Lou & Mark draft strategy (See: 2015 vs. the 2016/2017 drafts).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 13, 2018, 08:05:53 AM
Agreed that the amateur scouting is done, however, I think a Kyle & Mark/XXX draft strategy will look slightly different than a Lou & Mark draft strategy (See: 2015 vs. the 2016/2017 drafts).

I have to be honest, I'm looking at the 2015 and 2016 drafts and they strike me as being stunningly similar so I'm not entirely sure what you're going for there.

That said, I do agree that Dubas at the helm might very well result in a different outlook and strategy than Lamoriello. I think the issue, although it's sort of moot now that Dubas has been announced, is how much of that can really be planned in advanced and what time is required to get that down.

My guess is that most teams will look at their picks, come up with a list of players they think will be available at each of those picks, do extra research/analysis on that short list of players and come up with a general sense of what they might do at each pick.

Of course, every team will also know that they need to have a certain degree of flexibility too. They don't know what players might unexpectedly drop to them or be off the board when they pick. They don't know what teams will call with a last minute offer to move up or down the draft or to shop a player in exchange for picks. So whatever their "strategy" might be, they can't be married to it. Especially not when you're drafting 25th as opposed to, say, 1st.

So, yeah, I think teams will have general outlines of a strategy and good teams will dot their i's and cross the t's on their prospects but at issue is whether or not that needs to be GM specific(and, if it does, how long does it really take to come up with that).

Because we knew that the Leafs were likely going to promote one of their AGMs to the big chair I think any pre-draft prep work could probably have gone on without a GM. You're still coming up with that shortlist with input from both Hunter and Dubas and decisions still don't need to be made on anything until the end of June. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on May 13, 2018, 08:38:33 AM
Anyone heard what the mandate is supposed to be in Minnesota with the new GM?

That Parise deal is looking pretty awesome right now.  Really though, who would have thought that there would be an issue with a 13 year commitment. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 13, 2018, 08:47:29 AM
That Parise deal is looking pretty awesome right now.  Really though, who would have thought that there would be an issue with a 13 year commitment.

That's why I'm really cautious about guys like Weber. I know that the whole "Why would he play those last few years if he's only making 1 million" thing has some real logic to it but my answer to that is always that a lot of these guys really like playing hockey and hang on with their fingernails.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 14, 2018, 09:52:26 AM
Saw an interesting trade idea floating on twitter today:

Adam Mascherin (Panthers prospect who decided not to sign with the club) for Frederik Gauthier (RFA who the Leafs might decide not to bring back)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 14, 2018, 09:56:46 AM
Saw an interesting trade idea floating on twitter today:

Adam Mascherin (Panthers prospect who decided not to sign with the club) for Frederik Gauthier (RFA who the Leafs might decide not to bring back)

Any Mascherin* to the Leafs for that tier of prospect talk is A+ in my books.

Also, what's up with Florida's prospect retention issues?

* Adam Mascherin (https://www.habseyesontheprize.com/2018/3/26/17154488/montreal-canadiens-trade-target-adam-mascherin-florida-panthers-draft-pick-kitchener-rangers) has the same agency as Zach Hyman, who also gave Florida the same news a couple of years ago. He was also the linemate of Jeremy Bracco's on the Kitchener Rangers when they paired up to dummy the OHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 14, 2018, 10:13:54 PM
Bob McKenzie thinks anyone who is not Sebastian Aho can be available from Dundon’s Hurricanes.

We could conceivably buy Slavin-Pesce if we are feeling crazy, or pick up Faulk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2018, 12:33:57 AM
Bob McKenzie thinks anyone who is not Sebastian Aho can be available from Dundon’s Hurricanes.

We could conceivably buy Slavin-Pesce if we are feeling crazy, or pick up Faulk.

I'd be pretty surprised if they move Slavin or Pesce... but Faulk I could see even if it's just to shake up the locker room. And while he's not exactly the type of defenceman I think we need he'd be by far our best option on the right side so I'd check in there for sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 15, 2018, 12:43:54 AM
Skinner's name has also been mentioned a lot. He'd be a guy I might target if we want to balance out our lefty/righty's on the wing. He's a local guy with tons of speed and can score. Brown for Skinner. Maybe Zaitsev+ for Faulk. Throw in Martin too after his bonus as well since Carolina's openly talked about wanting to get tougher. Assuming we don't land Tavares that could give us:

Skinner-Matthews-Kapanen
Marleau-Kadri-Marner
Johnsson-Nylander-Hyman

Could swap Hyman and Kapanen if you/Babs want to.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 15, 2018, 12:48:25 AM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 15, 2018, 11:45:06 AM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 15, 2018, 12:53:52 PM
Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 15, 2018, 02:43:26 PM

As a side note, I think Marner-Dermott vs. Hanifin-Aho is going to be an interesting conversation in the years to come.

You probably aren't going to read this Nik, but it's a re-draft with today's info of 2015
https://theathletic.com/353504/2018/05/15/wheeler-a-2015-nhl-draft-re-draft-and-retrospective-look-back-at-my-ranking/

Marner goes from 4th to 5th
Dermott goes from 34th to 21st

Hanifin goes from 5th to 8th
Aho goes from 35th to 12th

It's just one person's rankings, however, and a fluid situation at that.
Travis Konecny, whom we could have drafted at 24 as an aside, is re-ranked 15th.

Wheeler has Werenski at 4 and Provorov at 7.  I'd take Provorov all day everyday ahead of Werenski. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 15, 2018, 02:47:19 PM
Here's another site that redoes drafts....hindsight...
https://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2015/

Their 2013 re-draft has Rasmus Ristolainen ahead of Seth Jones?!?!?!?! 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on May 16, 2018, 01:41:23 PM
Just read an article about the Canes players for sale.  Looks like Justin Faulk  is available.  Is he any good as I have not watched the Canes in years and what would we have to give up for him?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on May 16, 2018, 04:07:28 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 16, 2018, 04:11:30 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.

Question: what is defensively stronger than putting the puck into the opposing net?

I'm being a biiiit facetious. I know we need some better options for players that can withstand extended DZ pressure (Polak strong) that hopefully don't invite it in the course of their play (Polak slow and backing off play).

Barring a delicious trade to a stupid GM, I still hold out some hope for Zaitsev learning how to skate out of pressure and seeing/hitting outlets, because he has got the tools to push up ice as well as the tools to break cycles. It was starting to come together at times last season, but punctuated by injury and some stand out mistakes.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Highlander on May 16, 2018, 04:23:46 PM
He's not known to be strong in his own end. Although a right shot, I would group in with similar style of d man as Gardiner/Reilly/Dermott. We need someone with a very strong defensive game.
Agreed, I just wish one of our towering draft picks was ready to step in, would be nice to see one or two 6'5" guys on the ice with mobility.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 16, 2018, 08:18:00 PM
I think people are going to have to disabuse themselves of the idea that the Leafs are going to be able to really solve their defensive issues externally. That's not to say they can't improve things to a degree but significant external improvement is either going to have to come from a free agent signing, which tends to be a limited and inefficient market, or via trade which necessitates paying a price in direct relation to the player being traded for.

Personally, I dont think the Leafs have enough of a surplus in either forward talent or non-NHL assets that any sort of significant trade for blue line help would be an easy decision. Take the Hamonic deal as an example; does Hamonic but no JVR make the team better? Sure, it makes the team more balanced but I don't think that means better automatically.

(Excepting of course that they'd have Hamonic for next year)

That's why I think it's important to keep in mind that Carolina's big "announcement" about player availability doesn't amount to much. There's a big difference between for sale and on sale.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 06:34:53 AM
I think that’s the right read, Nik. They’re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it’s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it’s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander’s respective deficiencies accordingly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 17, 2018, 08:17:18 AM
Best defense is a good offense!

I'm sure we'll see incremental improvement on defense. No big splash opportunities, but they can improve without adding top pairing guys.

Splash where you can, i.e. Tavares.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 17, 2018, 10:09:40 AM
I think that’s the right read, Nik. They’re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it’s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it’s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander’s respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 10:36:51 AM
So, I'm a big proponent of offense = effective defense.

That being said, I also feel there is a huge belief among hockey management groups that 50+ pt defenders are ones who need 7M+ and they are highly valuable and sought after (sup, Dion Phaneuf?).

I also believe that trying to score from the point regularly (a la Brent Burns, Shea Weber) is basically the NHL version of the long two-pointer in basketball: it is depressingly inefficient. On a team like the Leafs, that's taking the puck away from your actual firepower (Matthews, Nylander, Kadri), so they really only use the point shot for deliberate high tips, rebounds, and to keep goaltenders occasionally honest by bringing their shot down to the top of the circle.

What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

It also means I'm willing to ship out one of Rielly/Gardiner for a king's ransom because Dermott could make them surplus to needs for a fraction of the cost. I kind of want to keep Gardiner over Rielly too, because of the CA60 difference, but salary considerations and age might flip that around.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 17, 2018, 11:00:12 AM
Gardiner is a UFA after next season. Count me in on the trade Gardiner bandwagon.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 17, 2018, 11:29:27 AM
What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 11:40:14 AM
What that means is, I'm looking for a 20-24 year old 3rd pairing defender that can skate out of trouble, make an accurate pass, and aggressively break up plays on a carrier, but who doesn't necessarily put up points. In stats terms, that means high relative CF%, low CA60, don't care about iCF but where the iFF is a higher proportion of the overall iCF (which means he can get shots through).

So a good skating, smart decision making, good passing and reasonably good shooting defenseman who can't put up points?

Haha hasn’t had the opportunity to put up points yet due to opportunity or playing only with garbage forwards.

I.e. doesn’t need to score it himself
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 12:27:16 PM
I think that’s the right read, Nik. They’re only going to make a big fish trade if the piece coming back is as much (if not more) of a needle mover. Otherwise, it’s all about nipping at the fringes of other rosters for underutilized talent.

This is why I lean towards trying your darndest to land Tavares if he is even a bit open to coming here. Pile all the cap allotment in him, the big 3 and the next layer of high value commitments at moderate hits, and use the remainder for filling the wings and depth defense with cheap Marlies that will eventually be traded for assets.

If Tavares goes somewhere else, and no shutdowny centre comes in, then it’s Willy time, and you flesh out the wings to support Matthews and Nylander’s respective deficiencies accordingly.

I think where we agree is that I think that may very well be their best plan to improve the team immediately.  Where we disagree is I don't think that's a very good plan for building a team that can become one of the clubs that separates themselves from the pack.

Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Forward depth is the area we can really stand out with.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 17, 2018, 12:31:06 PM
Given where we already are and the lack of patience in the fan base for building further from within via top-5 picks, what would be a better plan going forward for greater separation?

Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 01:07:47 PM
Well, I think the obvious point there is that an impatient fan base shouldn't be a key factor in team building.

I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 17, 2018, 01:43:37 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 17, 2018, 03:05:48 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on May 17, 2018, 03:20:09 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

My opinion regarding the Freddie trade was that they saw an opportunity to get a reliable starter and they took it for two reasons:
1.  You never know when you'll be able to acquire one. 
2.  You don't want your very young team to play without trusting their goalie

I don't think they were in a win now mode when that trade happened.  They were in a "we can't have a sieve back there while trying to develop so many young guys" mode.

Then the team showed they were better than expected a couple of months into 2016-2017 and that's when they moved into win now mode. 

I think going into 2016-2017, their plan was probably to trade JvR and Bozak at some point in the next 12 months.  Team was better than expected so they figured lets keep them and push.

Was it a bit too soon?  Probably.  They could have acquired more assets for their UFA's which would help down the line- but I don't think those would be high-end players coming back either. 

(JvR would have brought back the best return- and even there, you're probably looking at a late 1st round pick.  You can get a good middle roster player there as long as you don't draft for size (see Biggs, Gauthier), but have to get really lucky to get high-end talent.)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 17, 2018, 03:21:52 PM
I agree in principle, but that's kind of the situation we've been put into with the lottery win and Lamoriello's build philosophy. Internal expectations are also part of that picture. Are we not nearly at critical mass for high end talent?

Setting all of that aside, what moves could Dubas be making to funnel more high end talent into the fold? Even stripping out all of our spare parts, this core is, at its baseline of play, pretty comfortably at the edge or in the playoffs.

Sure and if you want to say that they should go with the best or least-bad option I don't necessarily disagree. I wouldn't even argue that it's doomed or anything. A good trade or two, some real development from Dermott and Liljegren(or others within the system) and Freddy getting hot at the right time and who knows? They won't be the Blackhawks or Penguins but they can probably be the 2011 Bruins or 2006 Canes. They absolutely can build a team with a puncher's chance.

Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

I would characterize it more as, let's see how far this group goes (i.e. JvR), rather than an outright win-now. Win-now would've been spinning Nylander off for Tanev or something equally stupid. They really only made short-term gambles of generally doing not much other than delaying the rise of the (other) children.

Anyway, my question is less what we should've have done, and more what can we do now.

I don't think we're up the creek without Tavares, but I also don't think getting him would significantly derail our future either.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 17, 2018, 03:29:30 PM
Which is what some of us wanted to avoid.  I would argue that trading for Freddy is when the writing was on the wall that the plan had been accelerated.  Maybe though they didn't think they would be this good this soon.  Hard to say, but if you look at the moves after that, I think they went in to a win now mode, and that it was a bit too soon to do so.

I more or less agree although I think "win now'' is a bit confusing as it mixes it up with short term moves made in the service of actually winning something. I think they did, however, want to make an immediate push for, if not winning, then at least respectability and it effectively jump started the process.

C'est la vie and everything and, who knows, as the league continues to enforce parity above all else it may be that the best a team can hope for is a fair roll of the dice but just like it was with previous administrations I think it's worth while to keep a running tab of where things got fudged up.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 21, 2018, 12:02:07 PM
This guy has a computer model to predict deals this offseason:
No idea what kind of accuracy there might be, but thought it might bring about some discussion.

Some highlights:

Tavares 8yrs @ 10.734M <-- would stretch there for the Leafs
Carlson 8yrs @ 8.6M <-- that's really pushing it, I think... would be fine at <= 7.5
Nylander 5yrs @ 7M <-- for 7M, it should be 7yrs, not 5
Stastny 3yrs @ 5.41M <-- yes please - I'd turn around and trade Kadri for a Dman
Green 5yrs @ 5.639M <-- no thanks
JvR 3yrs @ 5.35M <-- still no
Maroon 4yrs @ 5.288M <-- maybe.. don't know enough about him
Rick Nash 1yr @ 4.6M <-- maybe... he's not what he used to be...
Bozak 3yrs @ 4.378M <-- nope
James Neal 1yr @ 4.3M <-- yes
Grabner 4yrs @ 3.825M <-- not with that term
Komarov 3yrs @ 2.85M <-- no thanks
Jack Johnson 1yr @ 2.59M <-- maybe...
Plekanec 3yrs @ 2.5M <-- nah
Riley Nash 3yrs @ 2.277M <-- I'd take that for 3rd line C
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bill_Berg on May 21, 2018, 12:13:17 PM
He's got Jagr signing a contract worth more money than de Haan. Both one-year deals. Not sold on his projections.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 21, 2018, 12:19:51 PM
He's got Jagr signing a contract worth more money than de Haan. Both one-year deals. Not sold on his projections.

There's always going to be some weird ones, but IIRC he got pretty close to a lot of deals last offseason. His projections also show that if de Haan signs a 4+ year deal it'd be for a $3.5mil-ish AAV which I think is probably about right.

On a related note though I think Calvin de Haan is going to be a very smart signing for somebody this offseason. Too bad he's a lefty.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: princedpw on May 21, 2018, 12:55:53 PM
A lot of these numbers look lower than I'd expect (as opposed to lower than I'd want if I were signing the guy to my team).  My rule of thumb on UFA contracts is to ask what the upper limit on "good" contract is and then add 50% or a couple of million, whichever is more. 

Also, why would people pay Maroon more than JVR?  Maroon has 42 and 43 points the 2 years, some of it playing with McDavid?

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 21, 2018, 01:23:45 PM
On a related note though I think Calvin de Haan is going to be a very smart signing for somebody this offseason. Too bad he's a lefty.

Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 21, 2018, 01:32:38 PM
Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.

Given the way that RHD are valued I'm going to guess that a deal of that nature would be harder than we might think. I don't think it'd be enough that Gardiner would be a marginal upgrade talent wise but rather it'd have to be someone whose team wasn't very happy with them for whatever reason. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 21, 2018, 01:41:05 PM
Trade Gardiner for a comparable righty and sign De Hann to take his spot on the left.  As long as the righty is good enough, we might come out ahead in that scenario.

Given the way that RHD are valued I'm going to guess that a deal of that nature would be harder than we might think. I don't think it'd be enough that Gardiner would be a marginal upgrade talent wise but rather it'd have to be someone whose team wasn't very happy with them for whatever reason. 

I was looking at some names for this. Faulk was one that I thought of, but with Slavin and Hanifin already on the left side that probably doesn't work. The other one was Damon Severson, which I think could actually make a little sense. Severson seems to have fallen out of favour a little bit in New Jersey, and they could use an upgrade on the left side especially with Andy Greene not getting any younger.

Gardiner is, quite frankly, a better player: Severson will never score 50 points, and defensively-speaking I think they get flak for similar reasons. But, Severson is 4 years younger and signed to a long-term deal at an affordable rate, while Gardiner is a year away from being an UFA where he could command $6mil+ if he gets to 50 points again.

As a big Jake fan it's tough for me to say, but if the Leafs don't feel like they can afford to bring Gardiner back in 2019 this would definitely be an appealing trade. Or at least the basis of one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 21, 2018, 03:55:43 PM
I’ve been wanting to see us try this, especially now sans JvR and larger forwards in general but most with good shots.

https://thecoachessite.com/2018/05/20/behind-net-powerplay-formation-driven-analytics/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 22, 2018, 09:02:41 AM
Also, why would people pay Maroon more than JVR?  Maroon has 42 and 43 points the 2 years, some of it playing with McDavid?

A bit of an explanation on why JVR's contract numbers are a little low:

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 22, 2018, 11:05:38 AM
I think people in general struggle with evaluating these sorts of hockey models because it's really easy to fixate on the outliers.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 26, 2018, 12:06:16 AM
Thank you as well for noticing that I'm absolutely crazy bananas. I think Zaitsev is at his best when he's the go option, rather than the stop option. This season, the entire right side was assigned the 'stop' role. I know Zaitsev prides himself for defensive acumen, but he's really a good deal more effective when he's not playing as 'safe', whereas Marincin is the exact opposite and is very effective at denying zone entries (which is what Zaitsev gives away like Halloween candy 2 weeks after). This group has 5 PK options (MM, NZ, MR, TD) and 5 PP options (MR, JG, TD, CC, NZ).

This is coming from somebody who used to be probably his biggest fan here... stop trying to make Marincin happen.

It has been about a month and the landscape has changed significantly. I think it’s time to revive the Martin Marincin (the only Martin I’d like to be on this team next year) appreciation pipe dream.

Title: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 26, 2018, 09:39:38 AM
If Marincin were a righty there'd be some compellingness here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 26, 2018, 09:59:33 AM
If Marincin were a righty there'd be some compellingness here.

Yeah, I think he'd have a solid chance if that were the case. But for lefties we already have Rielly-Gardiner-Dermott locked in. So Marincin is battling for the #7 spot with Borgman, Rosen, and any righty who doesn't make the cut (Carrick, Holl, Russian guy whose name I haven't learned to spell yet).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 26, 2018, 10:41:00 AM
It wouldn’t bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on May 26, 2018, 12:17:49 PM
It wouldn’t bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl

It would bother me.  I don't think that's good enough.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Guilt Trip on May 26, 2018, 12:33:55 PM
It wouldn’t bother me in the least to see

Rielly - Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Marincin - Holl

It would bother me.  I don't think that's good enough.
Looking at this combo, I wouldn't think they're good enough either. I think your goalie has to be outstanding and the Team needs to play a solid defensive game.
Brayden McNabb....Nate Schmidt
Shea Theodore...Deryk Engelland
Luca Sbisa...Colin Miller
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Andy on May 26, 2018, 07:58:48 PM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 26, 2018, 10:35:30 PM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...

I really would rather them hang onto the 3, and I especially want to see William N. given a shot at center.  Ristolainen is good, but I don't think good enough as the centerpiece in a deal for William.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on May 27, 2018, 09:25:07 AM
So I was wondering, with the Sabres set to draft Dahlin and with a Nylander already on their team, does anyone think Ristolainen could be a potential target in, say, a Willie Nylander trade? Maybe we can pry Reinhart away too, assuming they'd be strongly in favour of uniting the two Nylanders. 

Would W. Nylander + Carrick/Borgman/Rosen + Brooks (or something to that effect) get that deal done or am I way undervaluing Reinhart here?

That would really solve that pesky top-pairing RD position though and give us a decent replacement for Nylander...

If Ristolainen were a top pairing shutdown RD, I might think about it. Seeing as he is very much the opposite of shutdown, I’d only consider trading for Ristolainen if we need a PP specialist. Even then, our PP is run through the forwards and works better with an LD as our RW is the playmaker.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 01, 2018, 12:36:29 PM

Just an article on Kovalchuk and what he might be looking for in a return to the NHL:

https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940 (https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940)

I'd definitely be kicking those tires.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 01, 2018, 12:47:41 PM

Just an article on Kovalchuk and what he might be looking for in a return to the NHL:

https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940 (https://www.tsn.ca/dreger-report-kovalchuk-says-winning-the-priority-in-nhl-return-1.1100940)

I'd definitely be kicking those tires.

Anyone know if he can play LW?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 01, 2018, 01:17:45 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 01, 2018, 01:24:26 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 01, 2018, 01:25:06 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen

Pretty sure we'd have to have Holl on every defence pairing in that case, but ok I'm game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 01, 2018, 02:31:20 PM
Getting Tavares and seeing Kadri on the 3rd line makes me laugh.  Best third line center in the game.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 01, 2018, 08:37:48 PM
Getting Tavares and seeing Kadri on the 3rd line makes me laugh.  Best third line center in the game.

Also, that fourth line centre is a 'can't miss' type of player.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 02, 2018, 10:36:14 AM
Rumours have Hanifin being available:

http://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/ben-kuzma-the-tricky-trickle-down-effect-of-that-hanifin-trade-rumour

He's been linked to Vancouver.  I'm pretty sure that if the Leafs were to call, it would take Nylander. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: AvroArrow on June 02, 2018, 11:52:51 AM
This is just too much (it is absolutly not mine):
https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/715592
 :o
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 02, 2018, 12:25:14 PM
Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals -- Friedman's speculated it might be both of them.

Dubas beating Lou to both would be hilarious.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 02, 2018, 12:36:03 PM
I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals....

I'm sure Lamoriello was brought in with the hope of the team being able to re-sign Tavares but I don't think you really need to look for reasons as to why NYI would want to bring in more front office people. Fans were literally paying for billboards calling for Garth Snow to be fired.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 02, 2018, 01:47:56 PM
I wonder why Lou was brought to the Island if not to do at least one of those deals....

I'm sure Lamoriello was brought in with the hope of the team being able to re-sign Tavares but I don't think you really need to look for reasons as to why NYI would want to bring in more front office people. Fans were literally paying for billboards calling for Garth Snow to be fired.

Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires. Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 02, 2018, 02:02:41 PM
Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires.

What explains Lamoriello instead of other possible front office hires is that they would want someone with cachet but, given that they haven't fired Snow, not someone who would supplant Snow or seriously look to do so. An AGM or a DPP sort isn't going to satisfy people who think Snow should be fired out of a cannon so they specifically needed a senior adviser type.

Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.

Insider consensus was that his magical deal making abilities and hockey knowledge would see the Leafs fleecing other teams while he was here too. Instead we got a lot of "Well, he can't possibly talk Garth Snow out of Travis Hamonic".
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 03, 2018, 10:19:08 PM
Right... but that doesn't explain why Lou instead of other possible front office hires.

What explains Lamoriello instead of other possible front office hires is that they would want someone with cachet but, given that they haven't fired Snow, not someone who would supplant Snow or seriously look to do so. An AGM or a DPP sort isn't going to satisfy people who think Snow should be fired out of a cannon so they specifically needed a senior adviser type.

Is Lou a senior adviser? I thought he was the President of Hockey Ops and left a senior adviser role here.


Insider consensus is that he brings some sort of cachet or gravitas that'll convince Tavares the Islanders are team where you can win.
Insider consensus was that his magical deal making abilities and hockey knowledge would see the Leafs fleecing other teams while he was here too. Instead we got a lot of "Well, he can't possibly talk Garth Snow out of Travis Hamonic".

I'm not saying it's right or it'll work. But I don't see any reason to doubt Friedman reporting his first duty was to begin pitching Tavares, so I think it might be (part of) what the owner had in mins.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 07:23:33 AM
Is Lou a senior adviser? I thought he was the President of Hockey Ops and left a senior adviser role here.

I don't know what his actual title is but I don't think he's above Snow in the food chain.

I'm not saying it's right or it'll work. But I don't see any reason to doubt Friedman reporting his first duty was to begin pitching Tavares, so I think it might be (part of) what the owner had in mins.

Like I said earlier, I'm sure anyone the Islanders would have hired would be expected to help with the Tavares situation. My point was more that there would be ample reason to hire Lamoriello even if the Tavares/Kovalchuk situations didn't exist as a PR move.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on June 04, 2018, 08:29:07 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 09:12:47 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

He's essentially in Shanahan's equivalent seat there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 09:31:14 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

Yeah, I'm not sold. Like I said, there's lots of reasons for them to throw fans a bone like that without actually making structural changes and I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to hire him in that capacity without firing Snow. Unless, as herman says, he's effectively in Shanahan's role which amounts to not really running the club on a day to day basis.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2018, 09:36:23 AM
"President of hockey operations" can mean different things to different teams. Some teams it's basically the GM. Some teams is an overseerer like Shanny. Some team it's just a glorified "senior adviser" position.

In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 09:40:08 AM
Lamoriello is the president of hockey operations and is definitely above Snow. Per the Islanders: "He will have full authority over all hockey matters with the organization." (https://www.nhl.com/islanders/team/coaching-staff)

Yeah, I'm not sold. Like I said, there's lots of reasons for them to throw fans a bone like that without actually making structural changes and I'm not sure it makes a lot of sense to hire him in that capacity without firing Snow. Unless, as herman says, he's effectively in Shanahan's role which amounts to not really running the club on a day to day basis.

I'm trying to recall where I heard/read it, but Shanahan said he was happy for Lou getting what appears to be his job but on the Island. Lou, relative to Shanahan, is not known for being hands off managerially.

In any case, Snow is reportedly very difficult to fire because of his contract stipulations, often described as a 'poison-pill' for the new ownership group. Snow deeply admires and emulates Lamoriello though, so this could be a Sith Lord situation.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 09:42:23 AM
In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.

If he didn't want to retire and no GM jobs were available? I can. It's a face saving move after getting pushed out by Doogie Howser.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 04, 2018, 09:45:23 AM
In Lou's case though, I can't imagine he'd take a job like this if it didn't come with full control and where he was essentially the GM as well.

If he didn't want to retire and no GM jobs were available? I can. It's a face saving move after getting pushed out by Doogie Howser.

Dubie Howser.  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 09:51:26 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 10:03:08 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

That being said, the Leafs at the time and the Islanders now have an appetite for the mystique of Lou and whatever that brings to instilling a 'winning culture'.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 04, 2018, 10:07:34 AM
My takeaway from this discussion is that from now on I can refer to our GM as Doogie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 10:07:59 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

Yes, the "here" in question was Toronto. Apologies if that was unclear.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 04, 2018, 10:13:08 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

Yes, the "here" in question was Toronto. Apologies if that was unclear.

Oh, I see it now. I thought it was more directly related to the Doogie Howser comment, and I probably would've understood it properly with non-textual emphasis. Thank you for clarifying!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 04, 2018, 10:31:25 AM
I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

We of course really don't have any way of actually knowing this, but I think Lou more or less had about as much control as any other GM around the league would. He had a "boss" above him in Shanny but every GM technically does. I remember when he was first hired some of us were like "it's not as if Dubas' voice will be completely drowned out now", but I mean I think it kinda was (at least in some instances).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 04, 2018, 10:37:47 AM
We of course really don't have any way of actually knowing this, but I think Lou more or less had about as much control as any other GM around the league would. He had a "boss" above him in Shanny but every GM technically does. I remember when he was first hired some of us were like "it's not as if Dubas' voice will be completely drowned out now", but I mean I think it kinda was (at least in some instances).

My read on it, which like you say isn't hard fact or anything, was that Lamoriello was sort of like Quinn or Ferguson in as much as they had a fairly broad latitude to make decisions but within a framework they had very little say in controlling. That may be pretty common, I'm guessing most Owners control the general direction of a club through a President or themselves, but I don't think, for example, Lamoriello could have decided to trade Nylander for a more established scorer.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 04, 2018, 11:51:53 AM

I mean, taking a job where he doesn't have absolute control in part to save a little face after getting forced out of his previous job in kind of an embarrassing fashion seems to me to be more or less what Lamoriello did here.

Which is also what happened when he signed with Toronto after getting punted upstairs in New Jersey.

That being said, the Leafs at the time and the Islanders now have an appetite for the mystique of Lou and whatever that brings to instilling a 'winning culture'.

With the important difference that the Leafs wanted to instill that culture as they rebuilt, while it seems the Islanders are hoping that mystique will make it more likely that they can keep their star player, perhaps draw the supporting cast he needs to think they've got a winning team (Kovalchuk?), and avoid the tear down/ rebuild that Lou oversaw in Toronto. It looks like the Islanders ownership didn't trust that Snow could get this done, so layered over him a President of Hockey Ops who they think can.

So, settling back into the armchair, it'd be fun if Dubas swoops in and signs both Tavares and Kovalchuk. A real Darth Vader striking down Obi Wan scene.

Getting either Tavares or Kovalchuk would be absolutely huge for the Leafs this summer.

Both.

Let's do lines:

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Brown
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Johnsson - who cares - Kapanen

Gimme gimme gimme:

Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Kovalchuk - Tavares - Kapanen
Marleau - Kadri - Marner
Hyman - whatever - Brown

... or just execute Operation No Third Contracts for Non-Core Pieces a year or so early and trade Hyman and Brown, let graduated Marlies and whatever else Dubas finds make up a slightly more skilled fourth line.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 05, 2018, 01:36:24 PM
I feel like I say this every offseason... but Nino Niederreiter's name is back in trade rumours with Minnesota apparently looking to shake things up. I think he'd be a perfect fit for Matthews on the left side.

They're apparently desperate for a right-shot forward. Of their top-12 scoring forwards this season, only Charlie Coyle shot right and I believe he switches from centre to right wing (that's an absurd stat that I would have never guessed). Could start with a guy like Brown and see how much we need to add to get it done? They also need to cut salary so Brown's pretty appealing in that regard too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 05, 2018, 01:37:17 PM
I feel like I say this every offseason... but Nino Niederreiter's name is back in trade rumours with Minnesota apparently looking to shake things up. I think he'd be a perfect fit for Matthews on the left side.

He was my centrepiece return from a potential Kessel trade way back when we were trading Kessel.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 05, 2018, 01:45:52 PM
Alex Petrovic (FLA, 26 yr old RHD) is available, according to Bob McKenzie's podcast.

You might remember him as one of the players that Florida protected by going 8 skaters, and trading Vegas Marchessault to steer them into picking Smith.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 08:46:38 AM
Wait now Ryan O’Rielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 09:01:41 AM
Wait now Ryan O’Rielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 06, 2018, 09:10:19 AM

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Zee on June 06, 2018, 09:14:11 AM
Wait now Ryan O’Rielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.

I'm with this.  I'd rather go the Tavares route since it involves nothing but money rather than trying to trade with a team in your own division who will do you no favors.

(I don't think we're getting either player)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 09:29:59 AM
RO'R was destined to be traded once he told the media he lost his love for the game because of the Sabres' situation, not after he drunkenly rammed his car into a donut shop and walked away from the scene.

Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 09:36:56 AM
Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.

Something revolving around Hanifin for ROR would probably suit both teams pretty well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 10:34:19 AM
Carolina might take a big swing on him, as they're not going to be able to afford Tavares dollars, but have lots of pieces they apparently want to get rid of because of all that pent up trade-rage from years of Francis' inactivity.

Something revolving around Hanifin for ROR would probably suit both teams pretty well.

https://www.diebytheblade.com/2018/6/5/17428356/examining-carolina-hurricanes-as-a-potential-trade-partner-for-ryan-oreilly-buffalo-sabres

So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 10:40:47 AM
So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.

I just read the bit in that article about how they wrote Hanifin probably wouldn't be on the table because of ROR's cap hit. I don't think Sabres fans understand how good O'Reilly is.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 06, 2018, 10:50:58 AM
So they've already fired up the articles about this, aside from picking the wrong players to target.

I just read the bit in that article about how they wrote Hanifin probably wouldn't be on the table because of ROR's cap hit. I don't think Sabres fans understand how good O'Reilly is.

Semi-hoping their management group also doesn't understand.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 06, 2018, 10:54:26 AM
Wait now Ryan O’Rielly is being shopped by the Sabres? Tavares consolation prize!

For other teams after we sign Tavares, sure.

Yeah, Buffalo would almost certainly give the Leafs a really sweet deal on that one.

I'm with this.  I'd rather go the Tavares route since it involves nothing but money rather than trying to trade with a team in your own division who will do you no favors.

(I don't think we're getting either player)
I wouldn't be giving up non-cash assets for forward help. I would for defensive help though.

I think Buf should do everything in their power to make this guy happy and keep him. He plays a tonne and takes more faceoffs then anyone.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: louisstamos on June 06, 2018, 01:27:43 PM

Who is it for Leafs fans?  Kapanen?  Brown?  Nylander?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 06, 2018, 01:32:00 PM
Who is it for Leafs fans?  Kapanen?  Brown?  Nylander?

One of Brown or Kapanen, yeah. I think a lot of people would balk at trading Nylander unless something huge was coming back.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 06, 2018, 01:37:40 PM
He expands on what he means by "line" a little more here:


So I think for us Kapanen and Johnsson would be above the "Hagg line" (i.e. they're available players but we don't want to trade them even if it could help our team) while Brown is below it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 11, 2018, 02:59:52 PM
Elliotte Friedman noted that the Leafs are searching for a 3C in his latest 31 Thoughts (https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/31-thoughts-vegas-thinking-re-visiting-erik-karlsson-deal/).

Nic Petan's agent all but said his client needs a change of scenery. He's a LW/C on the smaller side, but a very skilled and creative playmaker, mired for the past two seasons either to the 4th line with Chris Thorburn (their lesser Matt Martin) and Brandon Tanev (stonier hands than Hyman), or the press box.

(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/WPG/petanni95)

Honestly, I'm not even sure what Matthews could've done with those two.

https://jetsnation.ca/2017/10/02/time-for-the-jets-to-do-right-by-nic-petan/

Jets are looking for LD, of which we have plenty. If they're looking for a defensive 4th line centre, Frederic Gauthier fits the bill.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Bullfrog on June 11, 2018, 06:33:30 PM
So, no Bozak?


 ;)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 12, 2018, 10:57:02 AM
Both LeBrun and Dreger don't have Toronto on the list of teams that are currently in on Kovalchuk.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Boston Leaf on June 12, 2018, 11:10:23 AM
Both LeBrun and Dreger don't have Toronto on the list of teams that are currently in on Kovalchuk.

Good
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 12, 2018, 12:44:29 PM
PPP is suggesting the Leafs chase Skinner from the 'Canes.

The suggestion is a first and a decent prospect...for one year of Skinner at $5.75m.

I'm not sure how I feel about this, but that seems like a lot, given his contract status, given he's a UFA after this coming season.

The stated rationale is that the Leafs likely won't be able to land a strong centre or defenseman with that kind of package, and therefore they should be in on Skinner.  I'm kind of thinking that if the Leafs don't really need help at the wing, then just keep the pick and prospect until they can find a deal for a d-man or C that they need.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 14, 2018, 03:39:12 PM
So, no Bozak?


 ;)
Jason Spezza could be a decent C assuming he gets bought out?

Apparently, DUBINSKY is a buyout candidate as well.

I think either would be a decent replacement of Bozak and the term and dollars should be manageable.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 10:05:23 AM

I'm not Gus, but I'm pretty sure I've said this thread before.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 12:22:38 PM

I'm not Gus, but I'm pretty sure I've said this thread before.

I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 01:22:10 PM
I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.

Good defensemen that aren't Hedman/Doughty/Karlsson-money can be drafted and developed quite readily without lottery picks. Dermott and Liljegren are projected for that range of potential and Liljegren has the ceiling to exceed it. Honestly, Zaitsev qualifies too (#4) and is only derided for the contract he was signed to. We're already sitting on Rielly and Gardiner who are on the upper end of that 2nd tier offensively.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 01:52:06 PM
I don't mean to be too critical here, but define "#3"...and then tell me how you accumulate 6 of them.

Good defensemen that aren't Hedman/Doughty/Karlsson-money can be drafted and developed quite readily without lottery picks. Dermott and Liljegren are projected for that range of potential and Liljegren has the ceiling to exceed it. Honestly, Zaitsev qualifies too (#4) and is only derided for the contract he was signed to. We're already sitting on Rielly and Gardiner who are on the upper end of that 2nd tier offensively.

I think there's a cap allocation program there though, right?

I mean, you can put $10m into a guy that plays 25 mins a night, and skimp on your bottom pairing.  But icing a corps of 6 X $4m-$5m puts you in ~$27m tied up in defense.

And this is exacerbated by the fact that this strategy has to include "putting your resources into high skill forwards", which then will mean more $$ tied up in forwards.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 02:44:09 PM

When has having a real Norris contender type ever been required to build a competitive team? The Leafs of the late 90's, early 2000's didn't have anyone like that and they were plenty competitive. Heck, all sorts of teams have had one-off deep playoff runs with downright mediocre defenses.

Competition, here we come.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 02:51:08 PM
I think there's a cap allocation program there though, right?

I mean, you can put $10m into a guy that plays 25 mins a night, and skimp on your bottom pairing.  But icing a corps of 6 X $4m-$5m puts you in ~$27m tied up in defense.

And this is exacerbated by the fact that this strategy has to include "putting your resources into high skill forwards", which then will mean more $$ tied up in forwards.

That's not untrue, but it's not like all 6 of them will be on their second/third contracts at the same time. It's most likely you'll be paying UFA level money for 1 or 2 (keepers), RFA contract money for 3-4, and ELC money for 1-2.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 03:01:01 PM

There are even some notable cup winners. The '90 Oilers, '93 Canadiens, '04 Lightning, '06 Canes...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 15, 2018, 03:30:54 PM

There are even some notable cup winners. The '90 Oilers, '93 Canadiens, '04 Lightning, '06 Canes...

So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 03:43:40 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.

Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

So it's not that it's not true, it's that it's true of everything. The idea behind targeting a #1C or #1D or whatever has never been that they were fundamental necessities for a certain level of success, but that you wanted to do whatever you could to increase your chances. Those are good things to have. Not having them requires something exceptional elsewhere.

The problem then becomes that we might remember the '06 Canes or '90 Oilers but we don't remember the 9 or 10 teams every year that were similarly flawed who didn't win the Cup. If you build a flawed team the odds are tremendously against having huge success but possible? Sure.

Especially nowadays. The only thing required to win a cup is a pretty good team and some timely goalkeeping. It's not much of a target but that's what it is. It's not best practices or anything but, heck, anyone can roll a hard 8.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: herman on June 15, 2018, 03:51:28 PM
So basically, it's good to have a 1D, but no need to blow up the prospect cupboards or splurge for one on the free market unless you're in a position to do so, and better to just draft your darndest and develop them in house?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 03:53:18 PM
So basically, it's good to have a 1D, but no need to blow up the prospect cupboards or splurge for one on the free market unless you're in a position to do so, and better to just draft your darndest and develop them in house?

Heck man, there's no need at all. True happiness comes from within, not shiny metal trophies.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Frank E on June 15, 2018, 04:15:18 PM
Nik's drunk again guys.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 04:21:16 PM
Nik's drunk again guys.

Oh Frank, you know as well as I do it was Lao Tzu who said that we should be content with what we have and rejoice in the way things are. Once we realize that there is nothing lacking, the whole world is ours.

All this time, the true Stanley Cup was in our hearts.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 15, 2018, 04:27:09 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.

Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

So it's not that it's not true, it's that it's true of everything. The idea behind targeting a #1C or #1D or whatever has never been that they were fundamental necessities for a certain level of success, but that you wanted to do whatever you could to increase your chances. Those are good things to have. Not having them requires something exceptional elsewhere.

The problem then becomes that we might remember the '06 Canes or '90 Oilers but we don't remember the 9 or 10 teams every year that were similarly flawed who didn't win the Cup. If you build a flawed team the odds are tremendously against having huge success but possible? Sure.

Especially nowadays. The only thing required to win a cup is a pretty good team and some timely goalkeeping. It's not much of a target but that's what it is. It's not best practices or anything but, heck, anyone can roll a hard 8.

I'll always remember the San Jose Sharks.   

Also great quote by Alexander Daigle after being drafted first overall.  "I'm glad I got drafted first, because no one remembers number two."

It was Chris Pronger.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 15, 2018, 10:43:21 PM
So once every 14 years or so.  Leafs are almost guaranteed to win it.
Nah, there are other examples. The '96 Avs and '99 Stars depending on how you see Sandis Ozolinsh and Sergei Zubov. Then there's the '95 Devils where Niedermayer wasn't yet in his prime and Stevens was into the "World's Greatest #2D" phase of his career. Then you've got the first and third Crosby/Malkin cups.

Pens '17 (or was it '16), Caps '18... although maybe I'm behind on how we rate Carlson?


Thing is you could probably make similar lists about any one thing in isolation. #1C or a superstar goalie...there have been a bunch of teams winning the Stanley Cup without them either. Teams can win a Stanley Cup with weaknesses but they usually have some crazy edge elsewhere to compensate whether it's multiple HOF level C's or all-time great goalies or what have you.

I think that's probably the main thing. Compensate for your weakness by having some ridiculous strength elsewhere to compensate. Once it was clear the Leafs were done drafting in the superstar spot (top 5 or so?) and didn't really knock it out of the park with Rielly, I think we all realized their edge would have to be at forward -- if they, in fact, have an edge. Time will tell.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 15, 2018, 10:49:45 PM
Pens '17 (or was it '16), Caps '18... although maybe I'm behind on how we rate Carlson?

Yeah, I mentioned the third Crosby/Malkin cup.


I think that's probably the main thing. Compensate for your weakness by having some ridiculous strength elsewhere to compensate. Once it was clear the Leafs were done drafting in the superstar spot (top 5 or so?) and didn't really knock it out of the park with Rielly, I think we all realized their edge would have to be at forward -- if they, in fact, have an edge. Time will tell.

Well, you say that but unless you're counting on Matthews/Marner to be Crosby/Malkin(who established themselves as Crosby/Malkin pretty early in their careers) then by "edge" at forward you're probably talking about depth and I'm not sure there's an example of a really successful team without stars in net or on the blueline and who won because of a lot of forward depth.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 16, 2018, 02:56:31 AM
Well, you say that but unless you're counting on Matthews/Marner to be Crosby/Malkin(who established themselves as Crosby/Malkin pretty early in their careers) then by "edge" at forward you're probably talking about depth and I'm not sure there's an example of a really successful team without stars in net or on the blueline and who won because of a lot of forward depth.

Well, I'm not "counting on" anything and think it's as likely as not that they end up like the Sharks... but, if not, a combo of the two, maybe? The Leafs won't be the VGK. They'll have stars at forward, but maybe not generational talents... Matthews + Marner won't be Crosby + Malkin, but what if you throw in a Nylander? -- and maybe you've got stars but not HoFers and depth. Plus a blue line that isn't "weak" (like Pittsburgh last year) but generally fine in the way Gus described (platoon of great to ok #3s). 

I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it. There's probably a path forward for the Leafs. It won't involve having Drew Doughty or Sidney Crosby or anyone in their ballpark. But it's not a bad thing -- thinking as a fan who likes watching teams get built -- that they have a core with some very good pieces -- great, even, if we allow the term for folks who don't reach Crosby/Malkin heights -- and now a GM who seems focused on optimizing everything you don't just luck into by sucking hard enough and winning the ping pong balls at the right time.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 16, 2018, 03:01:45 PM
I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it.

I suppose so except one thing I think you'd be hard pressed to find would be an example of winning where the team didn't have anything particularly exceptional about them. Again, those Penguins won with that defense but with guys like Crosby/Malkin, not just stars. The late 90's Red Wings won with Chris Osgood, but also with one of the best rosters ever assembled. '93 Habs didn't really have any superstars...except the guy in net. Remember that "ridiculous strength" you mentioned. That seems like a requirement and some stars and depth isn't a ridiculous strength. That's something that, like I said, has been had by lots and lots and lots of teams that haven't won and very, very few who have, if any.

Really the only example I can think of a team winning without any sort of generational talents is the '06 Hurricanes(and maybe the '04 Lightning). Which is kind of a flukey win in a flukey year. Even still it's aiming pretty low.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 17, 2018, 11:24:10 PM
I think your initial post made the point that you can find examples of plenty of ways of winning, if you pick one thing and isolate it.

I suppose so except one thing I think you'd be hard pressed to find would be an example of winning where the team didn't have anything particularly exceptional about them. Again, those Penguins won with that defense but with guys like Crosby/Malkin, not just stars. The late 90's Red Wings won with Chris Osgood, but also with one of the best rosters ever assembled. '93 Habs didn't really have any superstars...except the guy in net. Remember that "ridiculous strength" you mentioned. That seems like a requirement and some stars and depth isn't a ridiculous strength. That's something that, like I said, has been had by lots and lots and lots of teams that haven't won and very, very few who have, if any.

Really the only example I can think of a team winning without any sort of generational talents is the '06 Hurricanes(and maybe the '04 Lightning). Which is kind of a flukey win in a flukey year. Even still it's aiming pretty low.

In those years, the Lightning and Carolina had players that elevated to the point where they were in the conversation for being among the best at their position.  Staal in the case of the Hurricanes and Martin St. Louis in Tampa.

The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

However, that's a pretty big if, and far from a certainty, and it could also go the other way where Matthews has a good year, but Marner and Nylander don't, or Nylander and Marner have a good year, and Matthews doesn't.  This is what happened to them during that last two playoffs.  Marner was pretty good, but Nylander and Matthews had a bad series against the Bruins.  Last year, Matthews was pretty good against the Caps, but Marner looked pretty invisible.   

When you have stars like Crosby and Malkin, where you can pencil them in as being among the most dominate players in the game, then you increase your chances of winning a cup.  It really takes the strength of a team to power them through in the playoffs.  For example, the years where Crosby was hurt, or where Malking wasn't at the dominate level he is at now, the Penguins didn't have great playoffs. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 18, 2018, 04:10:40 PM
From:
https://www.tsn.ca/talent/draft-week-countdown-top-3-priorities-for-canada-s-7-1.1115928

3. Save Smitty: A bona-fide backup is critical for 36-year-old . It’s not a stretch to the say that Calgary’s playoff hopes were extinguished with a quarter season of  between the pipes with a .904 save percentage.

McBackup would look good in Red.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 18, 2018, 06:54:32 PM
The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

But that makes it sound as if you're reading this "edge" we're talking about as just anything that a team might have that will help them win. But in this scenario, where Nylander, Marner and Matthews all have big seasons at once...is that significantly different than what Boston got this year from their big 3 forwards? Or Washington from theirs? Or Tampa? Or Winnipeg? We agreed it's probably not what Pittsburgh got from theirs so it's an edge on what? It seems like having three good forwards having big years is effectively the minimum requirement for a team being in the league's top 8, not something that gives you a leg-up on everyone else.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 10:25:53 AM
The case for the Leafs could be that while they don't have consistent generational talents like Malkin and Crosby, it could be that if Nylander, Matthews, and Marner all have their best years over the same time period, then that might give the Leafs an edge.  If Rielly and Andersen also have their best years in that time frame as well, then it would only increase their chances.

But that makes it sound as if you're reading this "edge" we're talking about as just anything that a team might have that will help them win. But in this scenario, where Nylander, Marner and Matthews all have big seasons at once...is that significantly different than what Boston got this year from their big 3 forwards? Or Washington from theirs? Or Tampa? Or Winnipeg? We agreed it's probably not what Pittsburgh got from theirs so it's an edge on what? It seems like having three good forwards having big years is effectively the minimum requirement for a team being in the league's top 8, not something that gives you a leg-up on everyone else.

I guess I can't quantify what is needed to put a team over the top.  Take the Leafs from this year for example.   How are the standings different, and where do the Leafs end up if the following is true:

Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

These are just random numbers that I am throwing out there, but having three players on a team that are dominate like that is something that doesn't happen very often.  That's Pittsburgh territory.  So if it all of that happens this past year, and the rest of the team stayed at the levels that they did ( forgetting that there is probably an impact elsewhere on the team to JVR and Kadri ), how far do you envision this team making it.  When I say big years, that's what I am thinking from Marner, Nylander, and Matthews.  I think they have the talent to hit those numbers at least once in their careers.  I just don't think that they can do it consistently year after year.   

Other things do com in to play here.  For example Boston's perceived shortcoming was that their offence was on one line, that the big three had to play together in order to produce.  That's different than Pittsburgh's big three that can produce on different lines. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 19, 2018, 10:29:08 AM
Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

Again, I think that's a situation that would have them among the teams with the best three forwards in the league, not a step or two above that.

But also, and this is where just raw point totals aren't a ton of help, is that one year of producing like Malkin-Crosby-Kessel isn't necessarily the same of one year of that level of play.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 11:01:49 AM
Matthews plays 82 games, has 50 goals and gets 95 points
Nylander plays 82 games and gets 90 points
Marner plays 82 games and gets 88 points

Again, I think that's a situation that would have them among the teams with the best three forwards in the league, not a step or two above that.

I agree with you that this is the sort of best case scenario that the Leafs can hope for.  Unless the luck out and get a bonafide #1 dman from somewhere, then they have to hope that this sort of thing happens in a year or for a couple of years, and in that one of those years the chips sort of fall in the Leafs favor and they get to the cup final.  I'm just saying that a case could be made that if Marner, Nylander, Matthews all have one or two seasons where they are considered among the most dominate forwards in the League, than in those one or two seasons then the Leafs could probably be considered a cup contender. 

Is that better than building a team that has strength throughout the roster and a league wide top end player at every position.  Not in my mind, no.  I agree with what you have said in the past, which is to paraphrase a bit, it's about maximizing your chances and having the largest possible window to win a cup year in and year out over an extended period.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 19, 2018, 11:35:04 AM
I'm just saying that a case could be made that if Marner, Nylander, Matthews all have one or two seasons where they are considered among the most dominate forwards in the League, than in those one or two seasons then the Leafs could probably be considered a cup contender. 

Right but what I'm saying is that a year where Matthews/Nylander/Marner combine to score 260-270 points or so is almost certainly going to be the result of one of two things:

1) Those three have progressed to the point where those point totals are genuine reflections of who they are as players

2) It's kind of flukey and they're playing above their heads(or their shooting percentages are abnormally high or what have you)

If it's the former, then they basically are the Penguins. And I don't think it's the sort of thing that would fade out or not be a threat to happen again and again. That would be good.

If it's the latter though, I don't think that really makes them contenders in any meaningful sense. The team might have a lot of points and have a high seed but I still think they'd be weaker in most areas, significantly so in some case, than most cup winners are.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 12:21:32 PM
2) It's kind of flukey and they're playing above their heads(or their shooting percentages are abnormally high or what have you)

If it's the latter though, I don't think that really makes them contenders in any meaningful sense. The team might have a lot of points and have a high seed but I still think they'd be weaker in most areas, significantly so in some case, than most cup winners are.

I guess where I have a difference of opinion on this is that I don't know if it's really all that flukey.  I think players can progress, and have career years for a variety of reasons, and then maintain that level for a couple of years, and then fall back to the pack.  Players like Modano, Gilmour, Messier in my mind fall in to this category.  They had a couple of years where they were right at the top of the heap, and their teams benefited from it.  In the Modano and Messier cases, their teams won cups, and in the Gilmour case, well not so much.  To me this is the difference between the very good, and the all time great sort of players.  The all time greats do it year after year after year.  I expect Matthews, Marner and Nylander to have a couple dominate years in the league, where they are considered among the best in the league at their positions.  I just don't know if they will all be at the same time.   

I also don't think that just because Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have great years, that it means that the team is probably weaker in other areas.  As I pointed out earlier, the Leafs this year had a pretty good year, and the big three were no where near a Crosby, Malkin, Kessel level.  So if they had bumped their performance levels up to those levels, and they were insulated by the likes of a Kadri, JVR, Bozak, Rielly, Gardiner, and  Andersen, then I could see that team going far.  Even in that first round, if Matthews, Nylander and Andersen show up for the complete series, they probably make it through to the next round.

Would I say they are definite cup winners?  No probably not, but I also wouldn't be completely shocked if they made it all the way.  I would agree though, that it will be harder to have the kind of scoring depth that the Leafs have right now moving forward because of the cap, and if Marner, Matthews and Nylander have a couple of years like a Crosby, Malkin, and Kessel, then they are going to want to get paid like it.  Really, they haven't at all at this point in their careers, and there is talk that they want to be paid like it anyways.     
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 19, 2018, 05:47:11 PM
I guess where I have a difference of opinion on this is that I don't know if it's really all that flukey.  I think players can progress, and have career years for a variety of reasons, and then maintain that level for a couple of years, and then fall back to the pack.  Players like Modano, Gilmour, Messier in my mind fall in to this category.  They had a couple of years where they were right at the top of the heap, and their teams benefited from it.  In the Modano and Messier cases, their teams won cups, and in the Gilmour case, well not so much.  To me this is the difference between the very good, and the all time great sort of players.  The all time greats do it year after year after year.  I expect Matthews, Marner and Nylander to have a couple dominate years in the league, where they are considered among the best in the league at their positions.  I just don't know if they will all be at the same time.

I think you're kind of misinterpreting what I'm saying there. It's not that any upswing in production is necessarily a fluke but rather that if those three have years like that it's either the result of something flukey(which is why point totals aren't a great metric) or a genuine reflection of their play(which is good but would be the Crosby/Malkin model, if only for a short time). You seem to be saying that if those three all have years at the same time where they're legitimately among the best players in the league that would put the Leafs into contender-hood. I don't necessarily disagree but I think that the odds of all of that lining up(all three being guys who have a few years where they legitimately play over their heads and all of those years lining up exactly) seem like we're doing that "So you're saying there's a chance" thing from Dumb and Dumber.

I'm not entirely with you on the examples though. Here's my take on them:

1) Modano makes the least sense to me. There's nothing about his 98-99 season that's unusual at all production-wise. In fact, in the 8 years from 95-96 to 02-03 Modano never had a full season under 77 points or above 85. In the year Dallas won the Cup, he was smack dab in the middle of that with 81 points. It seems to me that Dallas' cup has less to do with Modano elevating his game than it does with things like bringing in a couple of big deal additions in Hull and particularly Belfour.

2) The '90 Oilers really strike me as more of an example about how flukey things can happen more than anything else. It was a really weird year. 3 of the final 4 teams had 90 points or less(including Washington with 78 points). I also kind of wonder if Messier's big year is really a question of him having the best year of his life vs. just a difference in opportunities from being the #1 guy instead of the the #2. I'm not sure, in context, his year that year is really a big step up from the rest of his time in Edmonton.

3) I guess Gilmour fits the best into that but I can't help but feel like we remember that season a little rosier than is maybe warranted. Gilmour certainly was great that year but I'm not sure anyone would really think he was nudging up against Lemieux and Gretzky. He finished 2nd in Hart voting, sure, but a lot of that was narrative driven. He wasn't a 1st or 2nd team all-star.

I also don't think that just because Marner, Matthews, and Nylander have great years, that it means that the team is probably weaker in other areas. 

To use your example, if Marner/Matthews/Nylander were so superhumanly great this year that the Leafs won the cup then I don't think there's any real question that the defense would still be considered one of the worst defenses to have won a cup and Andersen one of the more mediocre goalies to do so.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 19, 2018, 10:17:11 PM
I think you're kind of misinterpreting what I'm saying there. It's not that any upswing in production is necessarily a fluke but rather that if those three have years like that it's either the result of something flukey(which is why point totals aren't a great metric) or a genuine reflection of their play(which is good but would be the Crosby/Malkin model, if only for a short time). You seem to be saying that if those three all have years at the same time where they're legitimately among the best players in the league that would put the Leafs into contender-hood. I don't necessarily disagree but I think that the odds of all of that lining up(all three being guys who have a few years where they legitimately play over their heads and all of those years lining up exactly) seem like we're doing that "So you're saying there's a chance" thing from Dumb and Dumber.

Yep, totally misunderstood you.  I thought you were saying that if Matthews, Marner and Nylander elevated to that point that it was probably due to a fluke.  Sorry about that.

Although, all I am taking from that above paragraph is that you are saying that there's a chance.

I'm not entirely with you on the examples though. Here's my take on them:

1) Modano makes the least sense to me. There's nothing about his 98-99 season that's unusual at all production-wise. In fact, in the 8 years from 95-96 to 02-03 Modano never had a full season under 77 points or above 85. In the year Dallas won the Cup, he was smack dab in the middle of that with 81 points. It seems to me that Dallas' cup has less to do with Modano elevating his game than it does with things like bringing in a couple of big deal additions in Hull and particularly Belfour.

I'm probably just getting caught up in what the major story lines were at the time of Dallas's cup win.  Belfour was definitely a big part of that, and my examples are a little simplistic because no one player wins a cup.  You need other pieces on the team.  I just remember when they won the cup reporters talking about how much Modano had elevated, and that he was the reason they were there.  When they went back to the cup final and lost to the Devils, it was all on the back of Ed Belfour, at least according to the reporting at the time.

2) The '90 Oilers really strike me as more of an example about how flukey things can happen more than anything else. It was a really weird year. 3 of the final 4 teams had 90 points or less(including Washington with 78 points). I also kind of wonder if Messier's big year is really a question of him having the best year of his life vs. just a difference in opportunities from being the #1 guy instead of the the #2. I'm not sure, in context, his year that year is really a big step up from the rest of his time in Edmonton.

So for this one, I actually meant the Oilers one, and the Rangers one.  I know that the Oilers one is the more flukey of the two, but the Rangers one, I really feel that they win that cup on the backs of Messier, Leetch and Richter.  I guess a young Zubov, who had his best season that year, was also there.  Still I don't think that was the deepest team.  Again I was maybe a little too simplistic in this example, as it was more than Messier.   

3) I guess Gilmour fits the best into that but I can't help but feel like we remember that season a little rosier than is maybe warranted. Gilmour certainly was great that year but I'm not sure anyone would really think he was nudging up against Lemieux and Gretzky. He finished 2nd in Hart voting, sure, but a lot of that was narrative driven. He wasn't a 1st or 2nd team all-star.

Yeah, and I didn't really quantify it well when I was marking the argument, but I was thinking more of the example as "is in the conversation of being one of the best players at their position".  That should have been a caveat though that during the late 80's and early 90's that meant that you were in the conversation with the group of players immediately after Gretzky and Lemieux. 

To use your example, if Marner/Matthews/Nylander were so superhumanly great this year that the Leafs won the cup then I don't think there's any real question that the defense would still be considered one of the worst defenses to have won a cup and Andersen one of the more mediocre goalies to do so.

True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 19, 2018, 10:36:48 PM
True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs.

Which, you know, isn't the worst thing in the world. The modern NHL doesn't have the super teams it used to. There are no Avs or Red Wings that are multiple HOFers deep at the key positions any more. If the 2003 Leafs were dropped into the modern NHL they'd have a puncher's chance.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 08:38:25 AM
True, if the Leafs won the Cup, you would probably have to lump them in with Carolina, Pittsburgh, Tampa defence/goalie groupings that won the cup in years past.   You know the more we discuss this, the more I am sure that we are just watching a reboot of the 1999 - 2004 Toronto Maple Leafs.

Which, you know, isn't the worst thing in the world. The modern NHL doesn't have the super teams it used to. There are no Avs or Red Wings that are multiple HOFers deep at the key positions any more. If the 2003 Leafs were dropped into the modern NHL they'd have a puncher's chance.

When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 11:21:24 AM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 20, 2018, 12:14:27 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0 (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 12:20:12 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

You only thought that because you've been influenced by the greatest thinkers of our time:

http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0 (http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4450.0)

And all this time I was trying not to be a sheeple.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 20, 2018, 12:28:04 PM
When this rebuild started though, I was hoping for more than a punchers chance.  I wanted the Leafs to be built in to a team that was considered a favorite year after year for an extended period of time.  I think I said it at the time of the Andersen trade, or sometime around there, but when we look back on this 10 or 15 years from now, if the Leafs haven't won a cup, I think we can point to that trade as to where things went off the rails.

I sort of came to worry about this as well, but I can't say the Leafs really paid the price I thought they would. Get a proven goalie to keep you out of the basement, and you'll miss out on the high pick needed to get a defenseman with a really high ceiling... and then they landed Liljegren, who had been ranked in the top 5 and seems to have all the skill level to be what we need. So, I don't know.

Maybe without Andersen they wouldn't've held on to the UFAs, and so had another 2 or 3 picks in the 20-60 range. But those guys wouldn't be ready for a years, and no one assessing whether they were year-in, year-out favorites would be looking at them. That judgment would be made on the core assembled with those high picks: Matthews, Marner, Rielly, Nylander, Kadri, Liljegren.

I think the issue is that when you have multiple top five picks, chances are you can get a surefire, top end player at a position.  You remove the whole "seems to be" from the equation.  The minute you start saying "if" is where the problems start.  That when you have to hope that things pan out, and if they don't pan out, that's when you are in trouble.  You want to give yourself the highest chance that you can get the things that you need to be competitive. 

It's like the Phil Kessel years, where people would say that the way the Leafs were going to address their first line center problems were by drafting Pavel Datsyuk in the 6th round.  That just doesn't happen with a high frequency, so you can't really count on it.  Did the Leafs draft a bonafide first line center in those years in the later rounds?  No.  Do you know where the Leafs got a legitimate first line center from?  The 1st overall pick.

So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?     
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: skrackle on June 20, 2018, 01:23:27 PM
When the Leafs hired Lou Lamoriello, they started diverting from Shanahan's talk of patience, rebuilding properly etc. Yes, Lamoriello did get rid of Dion Phaneuf and thank you Lou for that. But that's when the "we found ourselves further ahead than we thought we'd be" talk started.

Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

I can't see Frederic Andersen as the long term answer in goal. He's inconsistent; wildly so at times, but he's often hung out to dry by poor defensive play. The defense-roster and team play- needs so much work. Beyond that, the Leafs just don't seem like a team that's built for the playoffs.

They do seem like a team that was fortunate to draft a few highly skilled offensive players. You need a few of those to win, so that's good. I do still have optimism that this team can do something, but Dubas has his work cut out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 01:28:45 PM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

I'm just not convinced rushing things really cost them that player who has greater odds of panning out to fill a need. Would the Leafs be much closer if they'd tanked in 2017 and got Cale Makar or Miro Heiskanen instead of Liljegren?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: mr grieves on June 20, 2018, 01:44:49 PM
Are the Leafs further ahead than pre-Lamoriello? Well, you'd have to say yes, considering they went from last overall to a franchise record regular season points total in a couple of seasons. In too many ways though, they jumped the gun on finishing the rebuild. They will no longer get high draft picks by being a bad team. UFAs? Tavares would be nice, but I wouldn't be betting on him signing with the Leafs. They haven't built enough depth to make a big trade without weakening the team in another area.

Andersen contributed to their emerging from the basement sooner than you'd like, but so did the decade or so getting pretty high picks. I've said this elsewhere, but there really aren't many teams that drafted as high and for as long as the Leafs did -- and with relatively few busts (none if you consider we turned a bust into a 30-goal winger). It's possible that all those high picks just meant that they weren't bad enough to pick top 5 again after they got Matthews. Of course, that might doom us to be being the Caps (until last week) or San Jose.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: cabber24 on June 20, 2018, 02:03:20 PM
What's a realistic package for Karlsson? Nylander, a first and second round pick? I would flip a lot of assets for a Doughty or a Karlsson.

I would prefer signing them as UFA but these guys will likely be resigned or traded before it comes to that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 20, 2018, 06:53:00 PM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 21, 2018, 06:37:02 AM
So yeah, it's possible to draft an impact, bonafide #1 dman outside the first 5 picks.  In fact it seems to be easier than getting a center.  Still though, you would have a better chance if the pick was in that first 5.  So why rush the process when you have already committed to the rebuild?   

And even then, I think it's important to recognize what building up assets can mean for a club. So instead on focusing if the team would be any closer if they had a handful of extra 1sts and 2nds or the difference between Liljegren and Heiskanen, the difference is between being asset-rich and being asset-poor as they sort of are now.

I've made the point before but if a genuine bonafide #1 defenseman decided he wanted to be traded tomorrow, I don't think the Leafs have the asset to be in on that chase if they had to be the highest bidder(presuming they didn't want to subtract from their current roster). If they had a bunch of surplus high ceiling 1sts and 2nds to go along with a recent #3 pick though...?

I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 21, 2018, 07:44:06 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: OldTimeHockey on June 21, 2018, 09:23:30 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

I just don't think #1's get moved too often. I mean a number one on any team could be moved if they're say, Dion Phaneuf, but in reality he's not a #1.

I just don't know that prospects or draft picks get it done. I've been wrong before. Ask my wife.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 21, 2018, 09:41:05 AM
I don't think any team out there gets a bonafide #1 defensemen without subtracting something of high value from their current roster.

Without wanting to get too caught up in what constitutes a genuine #1 defenseman or "high value" and understanding that there haven't been too many trades that we can look at as comparables I will say that I think some pretty high value defensemen have been moved for what amounts to mainly future assetss.

Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 21, 2018, 07:15:30 PM
Most of the trades you are referencing might be trade deadline deals for guys with little term left though.  Not often do really high-end defensemen get traded for futures in the off-season.  The Dougie Hamilton trade is probably the only recent example you could pull out.

High-end defensemen don't get traded much full-stop. So I'm not saying it's necessarily an inevitable but even if we downgrade the requirements I think the point still stands. If a high value defenseman becomes available and a team is looking for futures, it's better to be asset-rich.