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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: mr grieves on October 18, 2017, 09:14:43 PM

Title: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 18, 2017, 09:14:43 PM
Looking ahead a few years, I see the Leafs current roster as including a core of players under contract for the next 3+ years or are almost certain to be signed long term, guys who'll definitely be gone, players that are replaceable and likely won't be here after their current contract is up.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Martin - Moore - Komarov

Gardiner - Zaitsev
Rielly - Hainsey
Borgman - Carrick

The last two groups -- those on the way out or who are replaceable -- will need to be, uh, replaced... and with cost-controlled players, which means looking at internal options.

Now... to see what's in the pipeline, I've broken things down a bit, into roles. Order of Options is who's on the roster, whose development is furthest along...

Secondary Scoring
OUT: JvR
Replace eventually: Marleau, Brown
Options/Prospects: Leivo, Kapanen, Johnsson, Bracco, Rychel? Trevor Moore? Timashov?

Top-9 Centers
OUT: Bozak
Replace eventually: Kadri
Options/Prospects: Aaltonen, Brooks

Muckers
OUT: Komarov
Replace eventually: Martin, Hyman
Options/Prospects: Soshnikov, Grundstrom, Korshkov

Top-4 Defensemen
OUT: None
Replace eventually: Gardiner, Hainsey
Options/Prospects: Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Liljegren, Dermott, Nielsen? Rasanen? JD Greenway?


My thoughts... two holes in the top-4 is a lot to deal with so hope they find a way to keep Gardiner, they looking thin at center...
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 10:24:09 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 10:29:07 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Of the replaceables highlighted above, I'd say Brown has a shot at another contract here, when our future RWs are Marner, Brown, Bracco, 4thline. Nylander is beautiful as 1RW, but if we're in a cap crunch situation, he makes the most sense at centre for most cap efficient line driving (i.e. we don't have to go out and get another, because Aaltonen and Brooks and T. Moore aren't going to get you overmatch capabilities).
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 11:31:37 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.


That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 11:48:19 PM
That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.

Under the old pre-cap market, these UFAs are rolling in 5+ year 5M+ deals.

Now in the cap world with 3-4 heavy contracts, you fill that roll internally or spin a trade for someone younger (Cup winning middle/bottom sixers have boosted value!).

Marleau is an exceptional situation, both his physical capabilities and the cap circumstances the Leafs are under. I dont think Kadri is going to fit. 
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 11:56:16 PM
That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.

Under the old pre-cap market, these UFAs are rolling in 5+ year 5M+ deals.

Now in the cap world with 3-4 heavy contracts, you fill that roll internally or spin a trade for someone younger (Cup winning middle/bottom sixers have boosted value!).

Marleau is an exceptional situation, both his physical capabilities and the cap circumstances the Leafs are under. I dont think Kadri is going to fit.

I'm bookmarking this, pal.  See you 2022.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 19, 2017, 12:04:13 AM
Im pretty broken up that I wrote roll instead of role and now it is immortalized in the quote.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 19, 2017, 12:21:59 AM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Yes, that's what I meant.

When this team's ten years into this version -- say, its version of the 2016-17 Blackhawks -- who's still left from the start of the build? That's how I'm defining "core."

Kadri's contract will be up before then, and, given his age and how contracts for UFAs in their late 20s/ early 30s go, he isn't likely to get another. So... not the core.

Which means an internal replacement will probably, at some point, becomes necessary.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 19, 2017, 10:01:16 AM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Of the replaceables highlighted above, I'd say Brown has a shot at another contract here, when our future RWs are Marner, Brown, Bracco, 4thline. Nylander is beautiful as 1RW, but if we're in a cap crunch situation, he makes the most sense at centre for most cap efficient line driving (i.e. we don't have to go out and get another, because Aaltonen and Brooks and T. Moore aren't going to get you overmatch capabilities).

1.  Kadri may get another contract with us, but only if its relatively short and his decline hasn't started in earnest.
2.  Future RW's- where's Kapanen???
3.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks becomes at least as good as Tyler Bozak (and he's probably already is better defensively TBH... low threshold, I know)
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 19, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
1.  Kadri may get another contract with us, but only if its relatively short and his decline hasn't started in earnest.
2.  Future RW's- where's Kapanen???
3.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks becomes at least as good as Tyler Bozak (and he's probably already is better defensively TBH... low threshold, I know)

Frick on a stick, I forgot Kappy. He and Brown offer the same utility in different ways and should definitely be there.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 19, 2017, 10:08:37 AM
Frick on a stick, I forgot Kappy.

Now I'm positive you're associated with the team.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 19, 2017, 11:57:36 AM
I'm still assuming Nylander is moving to centre. I know there's a debate, but it's an option and one that Babcock wants to implement. If that does happen then there is no centre problem. Maybe a winger problem, but the depth there is pretty good.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Britishbulldog on October 20, 2017, 02:10:40 PM
Looking ahead a few years, I see the Leafs current roster as including a core of players under contract for the next 3+ years or are almost certain to be signed long term, guys who'll definitely be gone, players that are replaceable and likely won't be here after their current contract is up.

......................

My thoughts... two holes in the top-4 is a lot to deal with so hope they find a way to keep Gardiner, they looking thin at center...

This is the way I look at everything including my role at my job as marketing manager for the Canadian Maritimes, my own life, my church and of course the Maple Leafs..... many years down the road....which is a curse and a blessing.

Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

My hope is that the year that Matthews and Marner's new contracts kick in that both Marleau and Martin will be traded that summer on July 2nd as Marleau will only be owed $1.25 MIL ($6.25 MIL Cap Hit) and Martin will be only owed $0.75 MIL ($2.5 MIL Cap Hit).  They both have strong ties to the cities of the teams who drafted them so I suspect they could be traded back to the Sharks and Islanders respectively. 

That would free up money for JVR to sign a long term (7-8 years) smaller salary ($5.0-$5.5) contract like is being reported that he is willing to do.

On defense I was thinking that the Leafs might be pursuing Igor Ozhiganov which is the 6'2" hard shooting, physical RD for next season.

Not sure about Gardiner as he still makes me cringe defensively but is really above average in everything else.  If he signed a Rielly contract then I would think he will be staying, if not then he can move on.

A few years from now that would allow a line up similar to:

Hyman / Matthews / Nylander
Grundstrom / Kadri / Brown
JVR / Marner / Kapanen
VET or ELC / VET / ELC

Gardiner / Zaitsev
Rielly / Ozhiganov
Greenway-like / Liljegren
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 20, 2017, 03:15:57 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

Do you mean... Marner has looked good taking faceoffs?
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Britishbulldog on October 20, 2017, 08:22:28 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

Do you mean... Marner has looked good taking faceoffs?

Yes.  But he also has been willing to back check, etc which I would hope the center would do as well.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 27, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

I'm still assuming Nylander is moving to centre. I know there's a debate, but it's an option and one that Babcock wants to implement. If that does happen then there is no centre problem. Maybe a winger problem, but the depth there is pretty good.

My guess is that Nylander will eventually move to center and Marner will be on a separate line from both him and Matthews, driving if not centering it.

Absent the fast emergence of Liljegren or Dermott really blowing the doors off the place in his rookie year, I'd expect they'd re-sign Gardiner... and, if the current AHLers and Euros fill out the blue below, they'd be able to:

So, in 3 years or so:

Mucker - Matthews - Scorer
Mucker - Nylander - Scorer
Scorer - Center - Marner

Gardiner - Rielly
Top-4 D - Zaitsev

So... you're counting on 2 prospects from among Kapanen, Leivo, Johnsson, Bracco, Rychel, etc. being able to replace JvR and, eventually (probably), Brown... and, tougher, Brooks or Aaltonen replacing Kadri.

I think they gotta start trading stuff (wingers? expiring UFAs?) and drafting to get more centers in the system.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 27, 2017, 01:49:04 PM
Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: pnjunction on October 27, 2017, 03:01:04 PM
I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 27, 2017, 03:09:35 PM
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Grundstrom-Nylander-Kapanen
Bracco-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Goat/Brooks/Prospect-Prospect

Looks deep to me, it'll be interesting to see which prospect take steps this year, both forward and backward.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 27, 2017, 04:46:28 PM
Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.

Ach. I'm a year off. Still, if they're going to have someone who could replace him internally, he should be in the system by now -- or very soon.


I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.

When Nylander, Matthews, and Marner aren't on ELCs, I don't think it'll be possible to match what we have now in Marleau/ JvR. But there are a lot of wingers in the system, and, among them, I'm pretty confident you can find a couple capable of scoring 20 goals playing with Matthews and Nylander.

An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: pnjunction on October 27, 2017, 06:46:53 PM
An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.

Kadri's tough, but when Bozak and JVR as playing like they do sometimes (last night) they look replaceable with Leivo/Marlies today...which is good news for the future I guess.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: RedLeaf on October 27, 2017, 09:02:19 PM
However this lineup shakes out in the next 3-5 years, I don't see it looking as strong is it does now with all the cap flexibility we have this year and next. We have an advantage right now that we will lose soon. Hopefully we can make hay while the sun is shines.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on January 13, 2018, 11:37:28 AM
Very good article in the Athletic today about Gordeev and Mattinen. 

Seems their coaches and  G.M's are very high on both of them. Gordeev gets kudos with: "you can't find a 6'7" D man who can skate the way he skates, makes his way into the offensive zone in 3 stride instead of 5-6 most players take". Lots of poise with the puck and great offensive instincts.

Mattinen; 'man, this guys got the potential to be an elite level defenseman if everything kind of comes together.'

Lets hope one of Gordeev, Mattinen or Rasanen make the leap to the big leagues or even better two of them. Imagine two 6'7" guys who can defend and also make offensive contributions. I know this is still 3 years down the road but they have lots of time to develop.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on January 13, 2018, 01:35:47 PM
Very good article in the Athletic today about Gordeev and Mattinen. 

Seems their coaches and  G.M's are very high on both of them. Gordeev gets kudos with: "you can't find a 6'7" D man who can skate the way he skates, makes his way into the offensive zone in 3 stride instead of 5-6 most players take". Lots of poise with the puck and great offensive instincts.

Mattinen; 'man, this guys got the potential to be an elite level defenseman if everything kind of comes together.'

Lets hope one of Gordeev, Mattinen or Rasanen make the leap to the big leagues or even better two of them. Imagine two 6'7" guys who can defend and also make offensive contributions. I know this is still 3 years down the road but they have lots of time to develop.

They didn't seem like 'homerun swings' when drafted, e.g. not sneaky analytics picks of high production at low stature, but the super tall defensemen that we've been drafting can be considered 'market inefficiency' picks, in that they are low production, high stature. The low production part bugs us spreadsheet trawlers, but the scouting department was deliberately looking for players underperforming due to circumstance rather than ability. Targeting pillars that can skate and are puck smart is the key, and we're not necessarily looking for them to product directly anyway.

Whether or not these picks work out that way or not is up to those players and our dev staff. Getting even one of the picks from these past three seasons to be a pseudo-Parayko would be huge.

Edit: that said, it still would've been really nice to see a Samuel Girard-like pick or three in there too. The Liljegren pick was a gift and stroke of luck.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on January 14, 2018, 11:13:33 AM
I know how down we are on our D but when Dermott and Lilgegren take their place with Reilly, Gardiner, Zaitzev and Hainsey it looks a lot more promising.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 15, 2018, 10:57:36 AM
I know how down we are on our D but when Dermott and Lilgegren take their place with Reilly, Gardiner, Zaitzev and Hainsey it looks a lot more promising.

Well, I'm not sure I'd pencil in Liljegren in our lineup next year.  I wouldn't be surprised if he requires another year of development.  For the rest of this year and next year we should be able to trot out:

Rielly - Hainsey/Dermott
Gardiner - Zaitsev
Borgman - Dermott/Hainsey

Hainsey and Gardiner have only 1 more season left.  Hainsey is a very long shot to still be a useful defender at 38 yrs old.  Gardiner may be a cap casualty.  Assuming both of them aren't here:

Rielly - Liljegren
Dermott - Zaitsev
Borgman - X

is where we sit two years from now.  We don't really have any other D-men I think are more than long-shots to make it to the show.  That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.


Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: CarltonTheBear on January 15, 2018, 11:01:09 AM
That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

(http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/nhl/players/full/5592.png&w=350&h=254)
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on January 15, 2018, 11:09:00 AM
That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

I think Dermott is the new modern defensive defenseman. He checks all your boxes here except for handedness, plus he can chip in offense (it's a pretty heavy wrist/snap shot he fires very quickly). He is pretty crazy strong for his size (the Marlies dev staff had to get him to lean back down for mobility, according to Bourne), but lacks natural wingspan. He makes up for it in his skating and uncomfortably tight gap control, i.e. breaking up plays early before box out strength is required. Borgman is similar in specifications but is far more raw than Dermott in defensive instincts, and not as elusive on his skates (Borgman prefers to go through, rather than around).

I too see Liljegren staying in the AHL next season and getting the same development diet Dermott and Rielly received (matchup defense + PK1), a) to see if he has 1D capability, b) to sneakily show Babcock/DJ Smith that PK can be done with skill too, rather than just brute strength.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Coco-puffs on January 15, 2018, 11:17:57 AM
That lineup above is really stacked with offensive d-men and probably requires someone who's strong defensively, mobile, can make the right play quickly, and is preferably a right shot.

I think Dermott is the new modern defensive defenseman. He checks all your boxes here except for handedness, plus he can chip in offense (it's a pretty heavy wrist/snap shot he fires very quickly). He is pretty crazy strong for his size (the Marlies dev staff had to get him to lean back down for mobility, according to Bourne), but lacks natural wingspan. He makes up for it in his skating and uncomfortably tight gap control, i.e. breaking up plays early before box out strength is required. Borgman is similar in specifications but is far more raw than Dermott in defensive instincts, and not as elusive on his skates (Borgman prefers to go through, rather than around).

I too see Liljegren staying in the AHL next season and getting the same development diet Dermott and Rielly received (matchup defense + PK1), a) to see if he has 1D capability, b) to sneakily show Babcock/DJ Smith that PK can be done with skill too, rather than just brute strength.

I agree that Dermott is likely going to be one of our better defensive defensemen.  Still need more in that lineup.  I'm not expecting Liljegren to become more than decent defensively while probably being one of our two PP d-men (with Rielly) and essentially replacing Gardiner's play (hopefully last year's version).
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 19, 2018, 11:17:20 AM
Just looking at an article in the Athletic about what prospects teams can offer up in possible trades.  Of course when it came to the Leafs the names that came up could be expected like Johnsen and Lindgren  but what interests me is that "a lot of scouts are buzzing about Fedor Gordeev"
Nice to hear, one would expect it to be Rasanen
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on February 19, 2018, 12:57:50 PM
Gordeev moves much better than Rasanen.

Gordeev is exciting because he is a huge dman that is quick, if he can round out his defensive game, he will be a top prospect.

He's still learning about gap control and other defensive fundamentals for now though.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 19, 2018, 01:26:23 PM
Gordeev moves much better than Rasanen.

Gordeev is exciting because he is a huge dman that is quick, if he can round out his defensive game, he will be a top prospect.

He's still learning about gap control and other defensive fundamentals for now though.
pretty exciting to think of having one huge great skating defensemen in a few years.  Even better if one of the others develops into anything.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on February 19, 2018, 03:15:48 PM
Yeah, remember Jake Gardiner is a success story of a forward transitioning to D and yet he is an absolute bomb scare in his own end.

Gordeev has a long way to go to even be half as good as Gardiner, but the raw skills he possesses are exciting when you consider his size.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 19, 2018, 07:29:43 PM
Yeah, remember Jake Gardiner is a success story of a forward transitioning to D and yet he is an absolute bomb scare in his own end.

Gordeev has a long way to go to even be half as good as Gardiner, but the raw skills he possesses are exciting when you consider his size.
Exactly, this is all potential which the Leaf organization seems to excel at developing. We are now #1 in the development field no doubt.  I remember seeing Gardiner 6 years ago already in Tampa scoring a couple and feeding Lombardi for a beaut and thinking this is the next great one. But you are right on the defensive blunders, seems to be like a mice in maze (for the first time) in his own end behind the dots. Puzzling player
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 19, 2018, 07:42:39 PM
I think some people are just naturals, look at that African American girl who just started  speed skating two years ago at 16 and is an Olympian at 18.

Greg Norman started golfing when he was 18, which is unbelievable for us that know that game intimately.  Lets hope switching Gordeev to D was someones Svengali move.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Frank E on February 20, 2018, 05:53:46 PM
As long as we're "looking down the pipeline", this is not super encouraging...right?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2018/2/20/17025978/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-report-fedor-gordeev-dakota-joshua-injury-keaton-middleton
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on February 20, 2018, 06:11:48 PM
It's part of why I am a big proponent of moving the pending UFA's, if they can get another 1st somehow they'd have 4 picks in the top 60 and that's not to mention the rest of the potential return.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Strangelove on February 20, 2018, 06:12:57 PM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on February 20, 2018, 06:26:59 PM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on February 20, 2018, 06:30:17 PM
As long as we're "looking down the pipeline", this is not super encouraging...right?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2018/2/20/17025978/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-report-fedor-gordeev-dakota-joshua-injury-keaton-middleton

That's one perspective.

The other is that we've hit on some recent first rounders and they've largely bypassed the CHL and made the jump to pros.

Liljegren: AHL
Matthews: NHL
Marner: Junior --> NHL
Nylander: SHL --> AHL x2 --> NHL

Our key middle draft picks from the CHL have mostly graduated (Timashov, Dzierkals, Dermott, Bracco, Brooks), or are still slow developing big D-men (Middleton, Mattinen, Desrocher (bye), Gordeev, Rasanen).

Our other depth picks are NCAA or Euro-league players who are developing slightly out of sight/out of mind and have a good deal more run-way before we have to make any contractual decisions. So yeah, the pipeline isn't sexy right now, but that's mostly because a lot of that sex appeal is already in Toronto.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on February 20, 2018, 06:32:15 PM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

I think our right side in general appears to be instructed to 'keep it safe/simple' and to try to get the puck to the left. Varying degrees of success thus far.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: bustaheims on February 20, 2018, 07:20:09 PM
However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

Honestly, I'm not sure if that's true anymore. I think a lot of what gives that impression that people really harp on his mistakes, because he made a lot of them back when Carlyle was trying to make him something he's not. He definitely made more mistakes back then. I'm not convinced he does now. I strongly feel like there's some confirmation bias going on these days.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Strangelove on February 20, 2018, 07:20:31 PM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 20, 2018, 08:02:16 PM
As long as we're "looking down the pipeline", this is not super encouraging...right?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2018/2/20/17025978/toronto-maple-leafs-prospect-report-fedor-gordeev-dakota-joshua-injury-keaton-middleton

That's one perspective.

The other is that we've hit on some recent first rounders and they've largely bypassed the CHL and made the jump to pros.

Liljegren: AHL
Matthews: NHL
Marner: Junior --> NHL
Nylander: SHL --> AHL x2 --> NHL

Our key middle draft picks from the CHL have mostly graduated (Timashov, Dzierkals, Dermott, Bracco, Brooks), or are still slow developing big D-men (Middleton, Mattinen, Desrocher (bye), Gordeev, Rasanen).

Our other depth picks are NCAA or Euro-league players who are developing slightly out of sight/out of mind and have a good deal more run-way before we have to make any contractual decisions. So yeah, the pipeline isn't sexy right now, but that's mostly because a lot of that sex appeal is already in Toronto.
Some people see negativity in a report that to me was neutral and in the case of Gordeev  (1 goal as per report) with the comments the scouts are making about him, actually make him intriguing and someone on our radar screen.
We must remember that the Leafs/Marlies have developed the best training systems in our known universe for development.  Even a guy like Marchment is having making some really impressive strides under Keefe.  I guess what I am saying is that they are trying to max everyones potential.   Not many organizations do this.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on February 20, 2018, 09:45:50 PM
Good point Highlander. We are getting pretty good value on the players weve added outside the draft.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on February 21, 2018, 01:43:19 PM

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'd say outside of the back half of last season and the stretch since Reilly got hurt this season, he still was really prone to launching grenades in his own end.

When he is on though, he is a legit top three offensive dman and even on his worst day he is no worse than a #4.



Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Frank E on February 22, 2018, 08:57:42 AM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'm with WIGWAL.

I think BustaStrange is nuts.  Gardiner has always had trouble in his own zone, maybe less so this season, and less last year than the year previous, but he still has more than his fair share of brain farts.  People jump all over Polak for every bumble in his zone, then forgive Gardiner because of what he does in the NZ and OZ. 

Rielly doesn't seem to make those brutal plays nearly as often, neither does Hainsey.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 22, 2018, 09:10:19 AM

I really don't see how anyone could possibly be watching enough non-Leafs hockey to have a really good idea of how Gardiner rates in the league at a fairly subjective thing like a "big" mistake.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 22, 2018, 09:15:11 AM
This conversation reminded me of this tweet that I enjoyed from last week:

Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 22, 2018, 09:44:04 AM
To me, Gardiner's biggest problem defensively problem isn't the giveaways when he's trying to execute high-risk plays that most players couldn't even dream of doing. It when he's actually trying to slow the game down that he makes the most mistakes. Especially along the boards in the defensive end. You often see him with the puck and he thinks he has a lot more time so he holds onto it a little longer than he should and a forechecker comes in and plays the body and takes the puck off him.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Strangelove on February 22, 2018, 09:47:38 AM
I really don't understand the criticism of Gardiner in his own end. He gives it away periodically (as all defenceman do) but his gap control and positioning are strong, which is probably why the Leafs get a lot more shots than the other team while he is on the ice.

The real defensive problems are the likes of Zaitsev and Polak, who are positionally wonky and often blindly fire it away when they do manage to get control.

You're right that Gardiner is a net positive and is of huge value to the team.

However, if you don't see that Gardiner is prone to the "big mistake" more than most other dman of his caliber/lineup slot, you are either lying, blind or not watching enough hockey aside from the Leafs.

I love Gardiner, but it's a love-hate relationship at times.

The "big mistake" phenomenon is mostly a matter of certain fans looking for it, it seems to me (i.e. confirmation bias). There's no real evidence to suggest that he's more prone to big mistakes than other defenceman. At the same time, there are plenty of analytic statistics to show that he's a strong defender.

I'm with WIGWAL.

I think BustaStrange is nuts.  Gardiner has always had trouble in his own zone, maybe less so this season, and less last year than the year previous, but he still has more than his fair share of brain farts.  People jump all over Polak for every bumble in his zone, then forgive Gardiner because of what he does in the NZ and OZ. 

Rielly doesn't seem to make those brutal plays nearly as often, neither does Hainsey.

Again, the "brutal play" perception is confirmation bias. Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

Gardiner routinely makes exceptional breakout plays but gets called out when the odd one goes wrong because certain fans anticipate things going wrong (even when they generally don't).

As I said before, there's a reason Gardiner's Corsi (and other possession stats) are always strong. it's because he's a good defender (and certainly no more prone to "brutal" giveaways than other good defenders). Gardiner's possession numbers are much stronger than Hainsey, Zaitsev and Polak, and are even stronger than Rielly's (though not by a whole lot).
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 22, 2018, 09:50:10 AM
Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

If the NHL historically tracked those sort of plays as "giveaways" like they should I guarantee you more fans would see those types of players in a different light.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on February 22, 2018, 10:05:27 AM
https://mapleleafsnation.com/2018/02/13/leafs-geeks-podcast-microstats-with-andrew-berkshire/

LGP had a god sit down with Andrew Berkshire of Sportslogiq/Sportsnet recently about how microstats are tracked by their code and how they are categorized (i.e. successful plays) and how the Leafs grade out relative to one another. They talk specifically about Gardiner's turnovers around the 14 min mark.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Highlander on February 22, 2018, 10:55:04 AM
How did a prospect thread get hijacked by a discussion on Jake G. Perhaps time to start his own thread somewhere else. 8)
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on February 23, 2018, 10:44:55 AM
Here's a deeper dive into:
(http://images.mentalfloss.com/sites/default/files/styles/insert_main_wide_image/public/wla_lacma_monet_nympheas.jpg) (https://theathletic.com/249083/2018/02/22/breaking-down-the-game-of-maple-leafs-top-prospect-timothy-liljegren-frame-by-frame/)
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: L K on February 23, 2018, 10:51:38 AM
Hainsey and Polak routinely blindly fire it up the boards and give it away but this kind of play doesn't register on anyone's radar because no one is expecting any more from these guys.

If the NHL historically tracked those sort of plays as "giveaways" like they should I guarantee you more fans would see those types of players in a different light.

I don't understand why they aren't.   Sometimes dumping it out of the zone might actually be the best play (no-one really open after getting hemmed in for a long time and you have the short change) but Giveaways and Takeaways are already poorly tracked so I'm not sure why they couldn't throw that in as a stat.  Especially those clearly unforced ones.