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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: mr grieves on October 18, 2017, 09:14:43 PM

Title: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 18, 2017, 09:14:43 PM
Looking ahead a few years, I see the Leafs current roster as including a core of players under contract for the next 3+ years or are almost certain to be signed long term, guys who'll definitely be gone, players that are replaceable and likely won't be here after their current contract is up.

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Brown
JvR - Bozak - Marner
Martin - Moore - Komarov

Gardiner - Zaitsev
Rielly - Hainsey
Borgman - Carrick

The last two groups -- those on the way out or who are replaceable -- will need to be, uh, replaced... and with cost-controlled players, which means looking at internal options.

Now... to see what's in the pipeline, I've broken things down a bit, into roles. Order of Options is who's on the roster, whose development is furthest along...

Secondary Scoring
OUT: JvR
Replace eventually: Marleau, Brown
Options/Prospects: Leivo, Kapanen, Johnsson, Bracco, Rychel? Trevor Moore? Timashov?

Top-9 Centers
OUT: Bozak
Replace eventually: Kadri
Options/Prospects: Aaltonen, Brooks

Muckers
OUT: Komarov
Replace eventually: Martin, Hyman
Options/Prospects: Soshnikov, Grundstrom, Korshkov

Top-4 Defensemen
OUT: None
Replace eventually: Gardiner, Hainsey
Options/Prospects: Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Liljegren, Dermott, Nielsen? Rasanen? JD Greenway?


My thoughts... two holes in the top-4 is a lot to deal with so hope they find a way to keep Gardiner, they looking thin at center...
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 10:24:09 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 10:29:07 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Of the replaceables highlighted above, I'd say Brown has a shot at another contract here, when our future RWs are Marner, Brown, Bracco, 4thline. Nylander is beautiful as 1RW, but if we're in a cap crunch situation, he makes the most sense at centre for most cap efficient line driving (i.e. we don't have to go out and get another, because Aaltonen and Brooks and T. Moore aren't going to get you overmatch capabilities).
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 11:31:37 PM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.


That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 18, 2017, 11:48:19 PM
That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.

Under the old pre-cap market, these UFAs are rolling in 5+ year 5M+ deals.

Now in the cap world with 3-4 heavy contracts, you fill that roll internally or spin a trade for someone younger (Cup winning middle/bottom sixers have boosted value!).

Marleau is an exceptional situation, both his physical capabilities and the cap circumstances the Leafs are under. I donít think Kadri is going to fit. 
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 11:56:16 PM
That's how I understood it too.  If Marleau can get a contract from us at his age, I don't think I'd be so sure Kadri can't at 32.

Under the old pre-cap market, these UFAs are rolling in 5+ year 5M+ deals.

Now in the cap world with 3-4 heavy contracts, you fill that roll internally or spin a trade for someone younger (Cup winning middle/bottom sixers have boosted value!).

Marleau is an exceptional situation, both his physical capabilities and the cap circumstances the Leafs are under. I donít think Kadri is going to fit.

I'm bookmarking this, pal.  See you 2022.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 19, 2017, 12:04:13 AM
Iím pretty broken up that I wrote roll instead of role and now it is immortalized in the quote.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 19, 2017, 12:21:59 AM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Yes, that's what I meant.

When this team's ten years into this version -- say, its version of the 2016-17 Blackhawks -- who's still left from the start of the build? That's how I'm defining "core."

Kadri's contract will be up before then, and, given his age and how contracts for UFAs in their late 20s/ early 30s go, he isn't likely to get another. So... not the core.

Which means an internal replacement will probably, at some point, becomes necessary.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 19, 2017, 10:01:16 AM
Kadri replaceable?  Not if he keeps playing the way he has last year and this.

I think mr grieves means after this contract. Kadri will be 32 by the end of his contract. He's not getting another one with us.

Of the replaceables highlighted above, I'd say Brown has a shot at another contract here, when our future RWs are Marner, Brown, Bracco, 4thline. Nylander is beautiful as 1RW, but if we're in a cap crunch situation, he makes the most sense at centre for most cap efficient line driving (i.e. we don't have to go out and get another, because Aaltonen and Brooks and T. Moore aren't going to get you overmatch capabilities).

1.  Kadri may get another contract with us, but only if its relatively short and his decline hasn't started in earnest.
2.  Future RW's- where's Kapanen???
3.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks becomes at least as good as Tyler Bozak (and he's probably already is better defensively TBH... low threshold, I know)
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 19, 2017, 10:06:47 AM
1.  Kadri may get another contract with us, but only if its relatively short and his decline hasn't started in earnest.
2.  Future RW's- where's Kapanen???
3.  I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks becomes at least as good as Tyler Bozak (and he's probably already is better defensively TBH... low threshold, I know)

Frick on a stick, I forgot Kappy. He and Brown offer the same utility in different ways and should definitely be there.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 19, 2017, 10:08:37 AM
Frick on a stick, I forgot Kappy.

Now I'm positive you're associated with the team.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 19, 2017, 11:57:36 AM
I'm still assuming Nylander is moving to centre. I know there's a debate, but it's an option and one that Babcock wants to implement. If that does happen then there is no centre problem. Maybe a winger problem, but the depth there is pretty good.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Britishbulldog on October 20, 2017, 02:10:40 PM
Looking ahead a few years, I see the Leafs current roster as including a core of players under contract for the next 3+ years or are almost certain to be signed long term, guys who'll definitely be gone, players that are replaceable and likely won't be here after their current contract is up.

......................

My thoughts... two holes in the top-4 is a lot to deal with so hope they find a way to keep Gardiner, they looking thin at center...

This is the way I look at everything including my role at my job as marketing manager for the Canadian Maritimes, my own life, my church and of course the Maple Leafs..... many years down the road....which is a curse and a blessing.

Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

My hope is that the year that Matthews and Marner's new contracts kick in that both Marleau and Martin will be traded that summer on July 2nd as Marleau will only be owed $1.25 MIL ($6.25 MIL Cap Hit) and Martin will be only owed $0.75 MIL ($2.5 MIL Cap Hit).  They both have strong ties to the cities of the teams who drafted them so I suspect they could be traded back to the Sharks and Islanders respectively. 

That would free up money for JVR to sign a long term (7-8 years) smaller salary ($5.0-$5.5) contract like is being reported that he is willing to do.

On defense I was thinking that the Leafs might be pursuing Igor Ozhiganov which is the 6'2" hard shooting, physical RD for next season.

Not sure about Gardiner as he still makes me cringe defensively but is really above average in everything else.  If he signed a Rielly contract then I would think he will be staying, if not then he can move on.

A few years from now that would allow a line up similar to:

Hyman / Matthews / Nylander
Grundstrom / Kadri / Brown
JVR / Marner / Kapanen
VET or ELC / VET / ELC

Gardiner / Zaitsev
Rielly / Ozhiganov
Greenway-like / Liljegren
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 20, 2017, 03:15:57 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

Do you mean... Marner has looked good taking faceoffs?
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: Britishbulldog on October 20, 2017, 08:22:28 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

Do you mean... Marner has looked good taking faceoffs?

Yes.  But he also has been willing to back check, etc which I would hope the center would do as well.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 27, 2017, 01:33:40 PM
Marner has done well at center this year in a small sample size and although all indications and predictions had Nylander moving to center next season I can see Nylander staying on the top line taking the occasional RH faceoff like this year with Marner moving to 3rd line center by next season to replace Bozak who was simply a NCAA UFA signing and could theoretically be replaced by a similar one.

I'm still assuming Nylander is moving to centre. I know there's a debate, but it's an option and one that Babcock wants to implement. If that does happen then there is no centre problem. Maybe a winger problem, but the depth there is pretty good.

My guess is that Nylander will eventually move to center and Marner will be on a separate line from both him and Matthews, driving if not centering it.

Absent the fast emergence of Liljegren or Dermott really blowing the doors off the place in his rookie year, I'd expect they'd re-sign Gardiner... and, if the current AHLers and Euros fill out the blue below, they'd be able to:

So, in 3 years or so:

Mucker - Matthews - Scorer
Mucker - Nylander - Scorer
Scorer - Center - Marner

Gardiner - Rielly
Top-4 D - Zaitsev

So... you're counting on 2 prospects from among Kapanen, Leivo, Johnsson, Bracco, Rychel, etc. being able to replace JvR and, eventually (probably), Brown... and, tougher, Brooks or Aaltonen replacing Kadri.

I think they gotta start trading stuff (wingers? expiring UFAs?) and drafting to get more centers in the system.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: herman on October 27, 2017, 01:49:04 PM
Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: pnjunction on October 27, 2017, 03:01:04 PM
I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 27, 2017, 03:09:35 PM
Hyman-Matthews-Marner
Grundstrom-Nylander-Kapanen
Bracco-Kadri-Brown
Johnsson-Goat/Brooks/Prospect-Prospect

Looks deep to me, it'll be interesting to see which prospect take steps this year, both forward and backward.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: mr grieves on October 27, 2017, 04:46:28 PM
Pretty weird that you're projecting a centre-shortage in 3 years and assume Kadri (whose contract expires 2022) will be gone.

Ach. I'm a year off. Still, if they're going to have someone who could replace him internally, he should be in the system by now -- or very soon.


I'm also finding primary concern on centre a bit odd when if you put Matthew and Nylander at the top-2 centre spots and Marner on the 3rd line all 4 top-6 winger spots need filling.  I guess the 'mucker' spots are easier to fill but you still need 2 high-quality wingers, they'd need to be Nylander/Marleau level to match what we have now which sounds expensive/hard to obtain.

When Nylander, Matthews, and Marner aren't on ELCs, I don't think it'll be possible to match what we have now in Marleau/ JvR. But there are a lot of wingers in the system, and, among them, I'm pretty confident you can find a couple capable of scoring 20 goals playing with Matthews and Nylander.

An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: pnjunction on October 27, 2017, 06:46:53 PM
An upgrade on Bozak and replacement for Kadri seem harder to me.

Kadri's tough, but when Bozak and JVR as playing like they do sometimes (last night) they look replaceable with Leivo/Marlies today...which is good news for the future I guess.
Title: Re: Looking down the pipeline
Post by: RedLeaf on October 27, 2017, 09:02:19 PM
However this lineup shakes out in the next 3-5 years, I don't see it looking as strong is it does now with all the cap flexibility we have this year and next. We have an advantage right now that we will lose soon. Hopefully we can make hay while the sun is shines.