TMLfans.ca

Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 10:57:37 AM

Title: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 10:57:37 AM
So... that deadline, a draft, and a free agency season have come and gone, still no trade.

Recently asked the chances JvR finishes the season with the Leafs, Mirtle offered: "I'm going to go out on a relatively thick limb here and say 95-per-cent chance... you don't dump a 30-goal guy who's been a key piece of a dangerous power play for years for futures in the middle of a season where you feel you have a chance to do something. If that means he walks for nothing in the summer, he walks."

This seems, to me, dumb, especially since he's floating the idea that they'll trade Leivo for the 4th or just let him sit out the season and leave this summer as a UFA.

Consider, even selling "low" on JvR, the possible outcomes:

1. Trade JvR, let Leivo fill in = 2nd round pick (JvR) + Leivo = 40% chance of NHLer + 1 NHLer = 1.40 NHLers.

2. Let JvR play contract out & walk, trade Leivo for 4th = nothing + 15% chance of NHLer = 0.15 NHLers

3. Let JvR play contract out & walk, let Leivo become Group 6 UFA (doesn't play 39 games) = nothing + nothing = 0.00 NHLers

Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 11:04:33 AM
Mirtle: "I'm going to go out on a relatively thick limb here and say 95-per-cent chance... you don't dump a 30-goal guy who's been a key piece of a dangerous power play for years for futures in the middle of a season where you feel you have a chance to do something. If that means he walks for nothing in the summer, he walks."

For reference: Mirtle's answer comes from
https://theathletic.com/126147/2017/10/13/mirtle-mailbag-small-sample-size-edition-why-josh-leivo-may-not-be-long-for-the-leafs/
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 11:04:42 AM
Unless they're moving him for another impact player (i.e a defenceman), I'd be pretty surprised if they dealt JVR during the season.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 11:08:31 AM
The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season*
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

* JvR and Bozak, by extension, guarantees that the Leafs have a dangerous (in both directions) third line option for a playoff drive; What is the opportunity cost in losing both of them at the deadline? How does it affect the lineup of youngsters when they see good soldiers for the team sold off for zero current impact?
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 11:09:53 AM
It seems more and more like they're just going to hold onto him. Which is either a sign that they're willing to just let him walk or that they'll trry to sign him which is then a sign that they're more or less committed to trying to win with some version of their current defense.

I don't really get the "Trade JVR/Try to win" dichotomy though. You could trade JVR and, whether it comes internally via someone like Leivo or Kapanen or via a separate deadline deal, still have most of what you want going forward.

Hanging onto JVR and letting him walk seems less like a statement about trying to win and more like a timidity to make bold, necessary moves because you're afraid of rocking the boat.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 11:09:59 AM
This seems, to me, dumb, especially since he's floating the idea that they'll trade Leivo for the 4th or just let him sit out the season and leave this summer as a UFA.

For those who don't know, Leivo needs to play 39 more NHL games this season or he becomes a Group 6 UFA after this season. Those are players 25 years or older with at least three professional seasons who haven't played 80 NHL games.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 11:11:27 AM
The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

#2 and #3 are true if you trade him or if you let him walk. Meanwhile #1 could just as easily be JVR scores 15-20 goals for the Leafs and Kapanen scores 5-10
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 11:13:01 AM
If we do look at re-signing JVR, Pierre LeBrun said the other day that Oshie's 8-year, $5.75mil AAV contract would likely be the basis:

Quote
Today on Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun of the TSN and The Athletic made some comments related to the Leafsí biggest ticket pending UFA, James Van Riemsdyk.

Here is what he said:

Quote
There havenít been any serious discussions, Iím told, on [JVRís contract], but certainly some dialogue, and what Iím hearing is that I think that JVR would be willing to do an 8 year contract if it meant that itís more cap friendly to the Toronto Maple LeafsÖ Think about TJ Oshieís deal in WashingtonÖ JVR does not want to leave Toronto, does not want to leave the good ship.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/10/11/lebrun-jvrs-contract-likely-to-be-similar-to-tj-oshies/
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 11:20:47 AM
The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

#2 and #3 are true if you trade him or if you let him walk. Meanwhile #1 could just as easily be JVR scores 15-20 goals for the Leafs and Kapanen scores 5-10

Right. It's more nuanced now than it was previously, pre-Matthews, when it would've been really easy to trade JvR for a 'better' return.

His trade value is decreasing and our return requirement is increasing.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 11:22:15 AM
It's not like the Leafs were unwilling to trade JvR either (Hamonic's nixed deal).
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 13, 2017, 11:22:21 AM
JVR for Hamonic would have been a good deal, I hope they're still working on something along those lines.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 11:25:40 AM
Right. It's more nuanced now than it was previously, pre-Matthews, when it would've been really easy to trade JvR for a 'better' return.

I don't think it's more nuanced really. If you're not planning him re-signing him you should still trade him. True, you've stupidly let his value dwindle for no real reason but, you know, selling your magic beans for a nickel is still better than nothing.

The Leafs aren't under any pressure to win this year and the likelihood that JVR makes the difference there is pretty small regardless. Which isn't even to say that the Leafs could be both a buyer and a seller in that capacity. You could trade JVR for assets and then use those or other assets to acquire something that would be a JVR-replacement of sorts but who wouldn't have an almost immediate expiry date.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 11:43:32 AM
I don't think it's more nuanced really. If you're not planning him re-signing him you should still trade him. True, you've stupidly let his value dwindle for no real reason but, you know, selling your magic beans for a nickel is still better than nothing.

The Leafs aren't under any pressure to win this year and the likelihood that JVR makes the difference there is pretty small regardless. Which isn't even to say that the Leafs could be both a buyer and a seller in that capacity. You could trade JVR for assets and then use those or other assets to acquire something that would be a JVR-replacement of sorts but who wouldn't have an almost immediate expiry date.

In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though. He's the bird in hand and they genuinely like what he (and Bozak and Komarov) currently offers (hence the asking price). Management also seems to value the experience of having their actual core go through extended playoff drives and letting them know they have the Front Office's trust and belief.

To me, that all means they won't let JvR go mid-season unless the return coming back yields the same or better impact to the current roster + future benefits. He's a very well liked member of the team, is a great influence for players learning how to take care of their bodies for the long grind, blah blah blah.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 11:47:18 AM
His trade value is decreasing and our return requirement is increasing.

How do you figure that?

The "return requirement" on the team's best players at the start of the rebuild (summer 2015?) was "something that gets them a chance at a core piece" -- a top prospect, a relatively high pick, whatever.

Well, two years on the Leafs have all the core forwards they need (JvR is not one of them), a decent group of defensemen (though not a 1D -- which JvR would never get you anyway), and a goalie.

The "return requirement" now, on all the expiring contracts, should be picks and prospects that might fill out the team's depth. 2021-22's Conner Brown or Carrick -- a cheap, good NHLer to replace the good NHLers you'e got who are no longer cheap.

To get those, you need to keep replenishing the pipeline.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 11:57:06 AM
In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though.

I wasn't really working under the assumption that the front office and I saw things the same way. My contention here is they're wrong.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 12:36:07 PM
* JvR and Bozak, by extension, guarantees that the Leafs have a dangerous (in both directions) third line option for a playoff drive; What is the opportunity cost in losing both of them at the deadline? How does it affect the lineup of youngsters when they see good soldiers for the team sold off for zero current impact?

I wouldn't discount the goals they'd lose, though I wouldn't worry much about them (say, JvR's 25-30 becomes Kap/Leivo's 15-20, so we're down 10 or so? Dump Komarov and might gain a few). But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.


I don't really get the "Trade JVR/Try to win" dichotomy though. You could trade JVR and, whether it comes internally via someone like Leivo or Kapanen or via a separate deadline deal, still have most of what you want going forward.

Hanging onto JVR and letting him walk seems less like a statement about trying to win and more like a timidity to make bold, necessary moves because you're afraid of rocking the boat.

I think this is it. Absolutely.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Bill_Berg on October 13, 2017, 12:37:36 PM
I like to think there is a chance they can resign him on a reasonable deal, by reasonable I mean not what he can get on the open market. He's been with the team for so long and they're finally getting good there may be some incentive to stay to win. Assuming there's no steal of a deal out there, I would expect him to stay and walk in the off season if there is a contender that offers him something big. If there isn't, then maybe the door swings open for him staying for less than he could get on the open market. Of course there may be a line up of teams willing to offer huge contracts that JVR may think can win now, New Jersey maybe with the home town ties for example.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 12:44:05 PM
How do you figure that?

The "return requirement" on the team's best players at the start of the rebuild (summer 2015?) was "something that gets them a chance at a core piece" -- a top prospect, a relatively high pick, whatever.

Well, two years on the Leafs have all the core forwards they need (JvR is not one of them), a decent group of defensemen (though not a 1D -- which JvR would never get you anyway), and a goalie.

The "return requirement" now, on all the expiring contracts, should be picks and prospects that might fill out the team's depth. 2021-22's Conner Brown or Carrick -- a cheap, good NHLer to replace the good NHLers you'e got who are no longer cheap.

To get those, you need to keep replenishing the pipeline.

I think where I was going with that was:
Earlier: young potential core piece + picks
Now: established defenseman

I don't dispute that we could trade JvR to a contender for assets and turn those assets (or other assets) around for what we want. I will say that is easier said than done
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 13, 2017, 12:48:34 PM
If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

* I'm sure most of you will scoff at that idea outright.  I personally don't buy it entirely (mostly because I'd hate if that came true), but the only way we can extend it beyond the next two years is players taking discounts and great performances from guys on ELC filling out the roster.  When Darren Dreger is saying Matthews agent should be commanding a contract MORE than McDavid's come negotiation time ( I'm not kidding you, he said it http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/will-matthews-get-more-money-than-mcdavid~1231014 ) and Nylander has a season that puts him in Draisatal territory instead of Pastrnak/Ehlers it becomes a worst case scenario where the window actually was pretty short because we can't afford the depth you want to win.

Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: AvroArrow on October 13, 2017, 12:49:00 PM
Unless they're moving him for another impact player (i.e a defenceman), I'd be pretty surprised if they dealt JVR during the season.

This.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 12:54:47 PM
But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.

The thing about this discussion is that it does tend to boil down to the tangible benefits of trading JVR vs. the perceived intangible benefits of keeping him and the resulting success it brings. As someone who doesn't like dismissing the idea that intangible things have real value when it comes to roster decisions(a position I have more company in when talking about questionable decisions this management group makes vs. any other funnily enough) I worry that this doesn't, as you say here, acknowledge that there are potentially intangible benefits to moving JVR as well.

Yes, maybe some players see it as "Wait, JVR was my buddy. Do they not care about that?" and that's a legitimate concern. But they also might see it as "Wow, this team is cutthroat in their desire to win a cup. That's good, because so am I".

Maybe Jonathan Toews got on great with Tuomo Ruutu. Maybe Sid Crosby loathed Ryan Whitney. Either way, I don't think that can drive decision making too much.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 12:59:07 PM
If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 13, 2017, 12:59:35 PM
In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though.

I wasn't really working under the assumption that the front office and I saw things the same way. My contention here is they're wrong.

Haha that's pretty well established.

I'm trying to see this problem from the team's perspective to get a better sense of their valuation process, and currently I see they would prefer to let JvR/Bozak walk at the end of this season, rather than trade for what is currently available to them on the market (nickels). Which is not to say that keeping them this long hasn't already been a mistake, or that it really speaks to their desire to win in this brief window.

They're not locker room bad guys, so there's no inherent value in subtraction, and the team is more conservative about the filler that takes their place.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 13, 2017, 01:09:41 PM
I think you have to consider too what trading JVR would mean for Bozak's performance.  They have been a tandem for a good while and (notwithstanding whatever friendship issues might be underlying) it could well be that a JVR departure would negatively affect Bozak's performance too. 

I'm ambivalent about trading JVR at this point, but if they do I think they should also deal Bozak.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 13, 2017, 01:12:55 PM
I think he could still fetch a kings ransom if you can find the right dance partner.

Retain 50% of his salary and JVR with a cap hit of 2 million is by far the most attractive name out there on the market.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 01:18:48 PM

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 13, 2017, 01:36:47 PM

Yeah, something else to keep in mind is the "nickels" analogy was just meant to highlight a dwindling in value. We have no real way of knowing what the actual market out there is for JVR beyond knowing that the Leafs don't like it more than JVR.

But something to keep in mind, and this goes back to the Hamonic stuff, is that while it's probably true that JVR can't fetch the sorts of defenseman that the team really needs, the assets he'd return are far more fungible than he is. I don't think a 1st round pick and two 2nd round picks are more valuable than JVR but I do buy that the Islanders didn't really see a need for JVR.

Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

They may have felt there was a need for JVR, but not at any cost.

I have a feeling they are going to sign both Bozak and JVR to deals, perhaps even long term deals, and then see what assets they have to move.  I'm not sure this is the right approach though.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 01:41:37 PM
Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 13, 2017, 01:52:55 PM
As for why the Islanders went the other way, I've heard multiple Leafs beat guys mention it was because JVR would not answer his phone and confirm he was open to a long-term deal with the Islanders, take that for what it's worth, but Mirtle, Siegel and CJ all seem fairly reliable.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 13, 2017, 01:56:12 PM
Depends on who initiated the talks and what all was involved.  If the Islanders contacted the Leafs and said that they wanted a package of JVR plus for Hamonic, but they wanted the Leafs to take back salary, it's possible the Islanders decided to go the other route and unload Strome to the Oilers to get a comparable player.

I maybe should have said "can buy" rather than "do buy". I can't say for sure why the Islanders went the other way but I am comfortable in saying that, generally speaking, picks are more fungible than any individual player.

Do you have a fungible quota for the day?

I know you don't like looking at deals this way, but if you take what the Islanders moved out on draft day, they moved out Hamonic, Strome, and a 4th rounder in either 2019 or 2020.  They got back Eberle, a 1st in 2018, a 2nd in 2018, and a 2nd in either 2019 or 2020. 

I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle.  He seems more consistent, and he has a lower salaray.  On the con side, he could walk at the end of the year, and that might be a real big deal for a team like the Islanders.  Based on that premise and looking at the moves that the Islanders did make, I could see a scenario where the Islanders were working on a similar deal with the Leafs, but it fell through because the Leafs didn't want to offer up all of the draft picks or similar draft picks that Calgary did.  Or maybe they didn't want to take back Strome, because ultimately they were trying to open up a roster spot for someone and if that were the case, then it's possible they wanted to stay with the devil they do know, rather than the one they don't.  There could have been a couple reasons why the deal fell through which don't have anything to do with the way teams value JvR.

I do think though that part of the problem is that the Leafs do appear to be a bit gun shy about going all in and handing the reigns of the team over to their young players, because I think there is a way that you could move a player like JvR, because we have seen Hall and Eberle move off the Oilers, so it is possible to deal wingers and get something back.  Also it wasn't too long ago that Kane was moved out of Winnipeg.   
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 02:00:32 PM
Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

Quote
I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 13, 2017, 02:15:35 PM
Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 02:18:34 PM
One of Cox or Simmons said that they didn't think the Islanders had much interest in JVR, so I'm assuming it was Toronto who brought his name up. That does make sense since they already have Anders Lee, who was coming off a 30 goal/50 point season and Andrew Ladd, who despite a disappointing season still managed to score 23 goals and obviously has a hefty contract, on the left-side.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 02:24:10 PM
Galchenyuk is on the 4th line in Montreal, would anyone take him for JVR plus a wing prospect and pick not in the 1st/2nd round?

Is he the new Yakupov?

Galchenyuk is an interesting proposition.  He's 5 years younger than JVR, but at this point with his confidence at an all time low he would be a reclamation project for any team.  Maybe he's one of those guys where a change of scenery is best and he finds his game again?  He's under contract for 2 more seasons after this at a slightly higher cap hit than JVR currently has, so he could fit into the Leafs salary structure in the short term.   Whether or not he gets back to scoring 20+ goals is anyone's guess.

Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 13, 2017, 02:27:24 PM
Yeah, again, I really wasn't making a point about the Islanders and the potential trade for JVR. Just making a point about how picks have a more universal value than a player would.

A point which, by the way, you sort of make yourself:

Quote
I can see a possibility where a team would value JvR more than Eberle. 

Sure. One example being if a team had lots of strength on the right side but less on the left. Again, this is my point that really doesn't require a deep meditation on the JVR for Hamonic talks. A player's value will heavily depend on how much a certain team wants that specific player. This is less true for draft picks.

Sorry, I misunderstood.  I thought that you meant that JvR was considered by most teams to be a low valued player around the league and that was why the Islanders didn't want to make the move, and not specifically that team in the Islanders situation may consider JvR to be of low value. 

If we aren't here for deep meditation, then what does all this really mean?   
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 02:31:14 PM
The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 13, 2017, 02:47:18 PM
The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

Which is a similar situation that Ottawa is finding themselves in concerning Kyle Turris.  He's 28, and he's pretty good, but he wants 8 years and Ottawa is afraid to put in that kind of commitment.  So the rumour is that they will play him for the year, potentially let him walk, and deal with the situation in the summer time.

So in Ottawa, I get it, because they really want to make the playoffs, and seem to be in win now mode.  That's really got to point to the Leafs feeling the same way, but they really shouldn't.  I don't think letting JvR walk would hurt the team in any significant way.  It's just an example of poor asset management at that point.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 03:05:56 PM
The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 03:10:34 PM
If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

I don't think anyone has made the case that you should only trade JVR for prospects or that you shouldn't make any other moves to improve the team immediately while still realizing the rewards of trading your UFA's on expiring deals.

Well, I have.

If, in 2 years, there's going to be a 7-8 player core taking over 50% of the cap, you need to keep finding cheap, talented depth to fill out the roster. Picking 11 times vs. 8 times in upcoming draft improves the team's chances of having depth good enough to contend over the next decade.

I just don't buy that "win now/trade JvR" dichotomy and doubt the team will be significantly hurt moving him out. They'll lose a few goals, probably, but they'll also give up fewer goals.

Keeping him feels like splurging a decent pick on a rental, which is something a team whose window is closing maybe ought to do -- but not the Leafs.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 13, 2017, 03:11:38 PM
Darren Dreger had this to say on TSN Wednesday night: "I expect that he'll be traded. [Teams] expect that JvR will be traded at some point between now and February 26th. It's just the reality of the situation around the NHL, and specific to here in Toronto. The Leafs would need a cap explosion. They'd need another 10-15 million for all of these players. He's a valuable asset to move out."


https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/your-call-should-the-leafs-sign-or-trade-jvr (https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/your-call-should-the-leafs-sign-or-trade-jvr)


I would personally like JVR to stay a Leaf.  However, considering  the cap situation and the upcoming contracts of Matthews & Nylander, (and others), depending on what transpires this year with the roster & players they currently have/retain, it'll all come down to the mathematics and probabilities of how the Leafs perform not just for this year but what the foreseeable future will look like down the road.

Lamoriello & co., have their work cut out for them and the decisions they make will have an impact on the Leafs for better and/or for worse, more the former than the latter, considering the vast amount of skill that the team already showcases.  As long the Leafs continue to draft shrewdly and accrue assets wisely, in Lou & co., we trust.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 03:28:01 PM
Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 03:31:09 PM
The problem with JVR is his age.  He's turning 29 in May, and as it's been pointed before, players peak in their early 20s, so his best days are already behind him.  I wouldn't want to commit anymore than 4 years to a player like that.

That sort of feeds into my puzzlement. Like obviously if it were up to me I'd trade him but with that said, I at least understand re-signing him from the POV of the Leafs thinking that the forward group they have right now is so uniquely suited to each other that they need to keep the group together and simply make do on the back end. I mean, I'd disagree with it but I understand the POV.

The "he's far too important to trade but we'll let him walk for nothing" bit is where I'm at a loss.

Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Letting him walk for nothing is a bit puzzling except the nothing is cap space so it's something.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 03:33:18 PM
Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 03:34:20 PM
Well, I have.

I like to think you're reasonable enough to be open to trading JVR if the return was a good young NHL player on a reasonable medium term deal.

Ah misplaced the modifier while reading.

Yes, a good deal, they should definitely take.

Absent that, a typical deal -- prospect or a pick or two -- they should definitely take.

There's no circumstance other than a Cup in the spring that would make JvR's value on the team outweigh what they'd get trading him for prospects or even picks.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 03:36:09 PM
Edit: actually looking at this stats he was on pace for 22 goals last year but missed due to injury.  So maybe he's still a 20 goal guy?

In Tyler Seguin's first 3 seasons with the Bruins he scored 121 points in 203 games for a PPG rate of .60. In Galchenyuk's first 5 seasons with the Habs he scored 336 points in 204 games for a PPG rate of... 0.60.

Galchenyuk isn't Tyler Seguin, but there's a lot of similarities in that they both faced a lot of questions like is he a centre or a winger, should we play him on the top line, can he play defensive hockey, does he rely solely on his talent, can he work hard enough. I think if he went to a team that just let him be himself I'm certain he'd see a bump in points just like Seguin did. He wouldn't become point-per-game good like Seguin did, but a bump nonetheless.

Also somewhat interesting that the same guy who coached Tyler Seguin out of Boston is currently in the process of probably doing the same thing to Galch.

Whatever ends up hurting the Habs is OK in my books.  If he goes to another team and puts up more points while his replacement in Montreal stinks and they fall to the bottom of the standings -- good.  In an ideal world I want to see the Habs make a panic trade where they give up their first round pick, not lottery protected, in an effort to make the playoffs this year.  Then they miss the playoffs, and the unprotected lottery pick wins the lottery.  Maximum pain for Montreal.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 03:38:27 PM
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 03:46:36 PM
Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

With Connor Brown currently on the 4th line, you could argue that we ALREADY have JVR's 20-goal replacement on the team. If JVR went the lines would just likely go to:

Hyman-Matthews-Nylander
Marleau-Kadri-Brown
Komarov-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Leivo

1st line stays the same quality wise. 2nd line stays about the same, maybe even gets a little better to be honest. I think Brown should be there anyway. 3rd line loses offence but adds a pretty massive defensive improvement. And Bozak and Marner should still be able to create plenty of scoring on their own in sheltered minutes. 4th line gets worse but still a better-than-average 4th line.

The biggest loss that a JVR trade would cause in this line-up right now is on the powerplay. But generally the Leafs have run their two units basically evenly. If they just started playing the Matthews unit more in the 3-4 minutes per game area that other elite forwards play our PP rate probably wouldn't even drop.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 03:48:06 PM
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 13, 2017, 04:00:52 PM
Unless they feel they can't get equal value right now for him, so you're taking a 20+ goal scorer out of your lineup without a replacement coming in a trade so the thought process is keep him for the playoffs this year.  Going forward you hope that next season you can plug in a younger guy to take that spot, either through promotion from the Marlies or trade/free agent signing? 

Again, I appreciate that may be their thought process but I still don't get how you'd make the argument that it's so all-fire important to have another 20 goal scorer in the lineup this year that it outweighs the potentially legitimate return you get(including, keep in mind, the cap space to replace him next year still).

Absent thinking we're about to be in a nuclear war with North Korea, I don't see the urgency there.

What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.  Teams lose players for nothing all the time, and they can gain players for nothing as well such as a waiver pickup/free agent signing.  Having an experienced player like JVR on the playoff roster might bode well for this season as opposed to trading him for a pick.

Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Also, the Leafs can allow other teams to talk to JVR about the parameters of an extension also, that could increase his trade value too.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 04:04:35 PM
Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 04:05:55 PM
What legitimate return could they get for JVR right now though?  He's going to be a UFA so other teams aren't going to give you equal value.  A draft pick sure, but that's years down the road.

I really don't understand the cognitive dissonance that in one sentence says you can trade draft picks for a player like JVR and then in the next say that a draft pick can't help you for years.
Title: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 05:08:40 PM
Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 05:17:28 PM
Kevin Shattenkirk fetched a 1st, a 2nd and two players just last year as a rental.

I know dman are more valuable, but a 30 goal scorer, elite on the PP, at a cap hit of potentially only 2 million still has significant trade value.

Martin Hanzal got something similar too. Two years ago Ladd got a 1st, a conditional 3rd, and a top prospect. So a 1st round pick + _____ would almost certainly be the return.
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 05:23:50 PM
Unless you mean taking the draft pick you get for JVR and using it as a chip in another trade down the line.

Pretty much. Picks are assets. Alternately you can take the picks you'd get in a JVR trade and, secure in the knowledge that those picks will keep the prospect cupboard stocked, use other picks/prospects to make a deal.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 13, 2017, 05:37:47 PM
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 14, 2017, 12:52:02 PM
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: disco on October 14, 2017, 01:23:19 PM
On power-play and in the playoffs, that big body is in front of the net and durability along the boards is great to have. But this is the salary-cap era. After the Big-Three, defensemen, goaltending and depth at center, wingers unfortunately are the last thing precious cap-dollars should go towards. Especially with the wealth of young forwards the Leafs have that can come up.

Because of the reasons stated, if I could only make one offer to either JVR, Bozak or Komorov, I would actually make the offer to Bozak for depth down the middle.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 01:25:35 PM
Maybe the plan is to trade him and get something like that in return? Why are we of the belief the Leafs won't deal him? Cause Mirtle says so?

I don't think anybody can say with any certainty whether the Leafs plan on trading him at the deadline or not. Lou probably can't even say that without knowing where the Leafs are in the standings. But I think a lot of his moves have shown that he does have a pretty big eye on the present. The Andersen trade. The Boyle trade and the lack of Hunwick/Polak trades at the deadline last year. The Marleau contract. If he thinks that keeping JVR makes the Leafs a serious Cup contender this year then I absolutely think he'll take the risk and keep him past the deadline.

I think this is likely what'll happen.

But I'd underline -- just to point up what bad management it is to keep him -- that, in one important way, there's really no "risk" in keeping JvR past the deadline. It's a decision to burn an asset. You're not "risking" not getting anything out of him beyond what he can produce between February and April, you've decided that's enough.

It's bad management, imo, if the Leafs miss the playoffs and keep JVR. If the Leafs look like a team capable of winning a round or two at the trade deadline I think it'd be bad management to trade JVR, unless he'll bring in a roster player that'll be an upgrade somewhere, which is highly unlikely.

Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued. If that means not getting a return for trading JVR, that's the 'cost of doing business' as they say.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 14, 2017, 02:57:01 PM
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 04:03:13 PM
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.

I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.


Here's the last 10 Stanley Cup winners and how they fared the year before winning the cup:

2016: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: Stanley Cup winner.

2015: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2014: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2013: Los Angeles - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2012: Chicago - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2011: Los Angeles - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2010: Boston - Previous Season: 2nd Round.

2009: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2008: Pittsburgh - Stanley Cup Finals.

2007: Detroit - Conference Finals.

2006: Anaheim - Conference Finals.


The last team to miss the playoffs and win the cup were the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes, coming off the lockout year.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 14, 2017, 04:23:59 PM
I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.

That's a correlation, not causation. The Kings didn't have any playoff success before winning their cup and on the opposite side of the spectrum the Capitals have won lots of playoff rounds without steadily marching upwards.

Young teams with a lot of talent gradually improve. That typically means they'll make the playoffs before they put it all together and win a cup.

Remember, you didn't say "it's important that the Leafs make the playoffs this year" but rather that the experience of playoff success will make a cup more likely in the future.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 14, 2017, 05:25:10 PM

That's a correlation, not causation. The Kings didn't have any playoff success before winning their cup and on the opposite side of the spectrum the Capitals have won lots of playoff rounds without steadily marching upwards.

Young teams with a lot of talent gradually improve. That typically means they'll make the playoffs before they put it all together and win a cup.

Remember, you didn't say "it's important that the Leafs make the playoffs this year" but rather that the experience of playoff success will make a cup more likely in the future.

It's simple math Nik. Making it to the conference finals or farther exponentially increases a teams chance of securing a cup than not making it past the 2nd round.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: disco on October 14, 2017, 05:55:39 PM
Going deep into this year's playoffs will be huge for the development of this team. That shouldn't be undervalued.

It also shouldn't be overvalued. Or valued, really. It's an oft-repeated contention but I don't think there's enough evidence behind it to drive decision making to a significant degree. 

Although, again, trading JVR doesn't mean you can't also add pieces.

I think there's value in playoff experience, but yes, probably shouldn't overvalue anything. I look at young Pittsburgh and Chicago teams in the last 10 years who had some playoff success before winning their first cup. I guess that's what I'd want the Leafs to emulate.


Here's the last 10 Stanley Cup winners and how they fared the year before winning the cup:

2016: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: Stanley Cup winner.

2015: Pittsburgh - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2014: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2013: Los Angeles - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2012: Chicago - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2011: Los Angeles - Previous Season: 1st Round.

2010: Boston - Previous Season: 2nd Round.

2009: Chicago - Previous Season: Conference Finals.

2008: Pittsburgh - Stanley Cup Finals.

2007: Detroit - Conference Finals.

2006: Anaheim - Conference Finals.


The last team to miss the playoffs and win the cup were the 2005 Carolina Hurricanes, coming off the lockout year.

I agree, there is definite value in playing games in the post-season for a YOUNG club on the RISE. The caliber of competition increases, time and space decreases... all of which hardens one mentally and physically for both the next season and the future playoff runs. You're playing against the best, and everyone is going full-tilt every shift. However, the value of the playoffs for a middling team constantly on the bubble, in and out of the first round, is negligible.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 14, 2017, 10:05:27 PM
It's simple math Nik. Making it to the conference finals or farther exponentially increases a teams chance of securing a cup than not making it past the 2nd round.

I freely admit that math was never my best subject but even I know that's not true(and also, that's not how exponents work).
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 10:47:23 AM
It's simple math Nik. Making it to the conference finals or farther exponentially increases a teams chance of securing a cup than not making it past the 2nd round.

I freely admit that math was never my best subject but even I know that's not true(and also, that's not how exponents work).


Sorry for the confusion, Nik. Check out definition 1. I was using the word in the superlative sense.

ex∑po∑nen∑tial∑ly
ˌekspəˈnen(t)SHəlē/Submit
adverb

1.(with reference to an increase) more and more rapidly.
"our business has been growing exponentially"

2.MATHEMATICS
by means of or as expressed by a mathematical exponent.
"values distributed exponentially according to a given time constant"

I gave reasons for my opinion on why keeping JVR might be worth it even though he could walk next year for nothing. None of this is conclusive.

I'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: KadriFan on October 15, 2017, 11:00:34 AM
I don't think they will be trading for any top dman.  How will they pay one.  They're gonna be broke after the triplets get their contracts.  More likely he will go for pick or maybe a young center prospect.  Of course one of their young Left wingers Will fave to take his spot away from him first or nothing happens
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Zee on October 15, 2017, 11:05:10 AM
The cap hits of JVR + Bozak + Komarov add up to   $11.4 million. I think 2 of those 3 aren't on the Leafs next season. They can find a way to make the numbers work by plugging in younger players on cheap contracts.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: AvroArrow on October 15, 2017, 11:15:50 AM
I'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.

I'd trade him for a good top 4 dman.  I still think JvR for Vatanen still makes sense for the basis of a deal.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 11:24:27 AM
I'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.

I'd trade him for a good top 4 dman.  I still think JvR for Vatanen still makes sense for the basis of a deal.

JVR would be a great fit on Anaheim.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: KadriFan on October 15, 2017, 11:42:31 AM
The cap hits of JVR + Bozak + Komarov add up to   $11.4 million. I think 2 of those 3 aren't on the Leafs next season. They can find a way to make the numbers work by plugging in younger players on cheap contracts.

I doubt that will cover Matthews deal.  Plus they have the other two plus replacements plus Gardner in the not to distant future. 
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: princedpw on October 15, 2017, 11:57:40 AM
I'd keep JVR unless he's part of a deal to bring in a number 1 d-man, which would be unlikely.

I'd trade him for a good top 4 dman.  I still think JvR for Vatanen still makes sense for the basis of a deal.

What about Josh Manson?  When Anaheim's other defenders get back from the IR.  We need the guy who can kill penalties, clear the zone, and deny zone entries more than the offensive player.  Of course the difference status (UFA vs under contract makes a huge difference.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 15, 2017, 12:33:52 PM
I gave reasons for my opinion on why keeping JVR might be worth it even though he could walk next year for nothing. None of this is conclusive.

Right. It's not math, simple or otherwise.

But, again, your opinion seems based on the false dichotomy that the Leafs, by trading JVR, will necessary have a worse team for the playoffs than they do now and so trading him will automatically assume a worse chance of success in this year's playoffs.

Even ignoring my point about the hard to pin down value of experience or what I've said about there not necessarily being a causal relationship between prior playoff success and a cup...that's still not true.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 01:12:37 PM
I gave reasons for my opinion on why keeping JVR might be worth it even though he could walk next year for nothing. None of this is conclusive.

Right. It's not math, simple or otherwise.

But, again, your opinion seems based on the false dichotomy that the Leafs, by trading JVR, will necessary have a worse team for the playoffs than they do now and so trading him will automatically assume a worse chance of success in this year's playoffs.

Even ignoring my point about the hard to pin down value of experience or what I've said about there not necessarily being a causal relationship between prior playoff success and a cup...that's still not true.

7 of the last 11 Stanley Cups were secured by teams who at least made it to the Conference Finals in the previous season.

4 of the last 11 Stanley Cups were secured by teams who made the playoffs but didn't make it past the 2nd round in the previous season.

4 is less than 7. Simple math.

I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 15, 2017, 01:40:57 PM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR.  You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem.  If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Dappleganger on October 15, 2017, 01:48:51 PM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR.  You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem.  If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.

I did say in an earlier post that I would trade JVR for an upgrade on defence, but I just think that it is unlikely.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 15, 2017, 01:49:11 PM
7 of the last 11 Stanley Cups were secured by teams who at least made it to the Conference Finals in the previous season.

4 of the last 11 Stanley Cups were secured by teams who made the playoffs but didn't make it past the 2nd round in the previous season.

4 is less than 7. Simple math.

5 of the last 11 Cups were won by teams with Red as their primary jersey colour.

0 of the last 11 Stanley Cup winners did so with Blue as their primary colour.

5 is greater than 0. Therefore the Leafs cannot win the Stanley Cup with blue uniforms. Similarly simple math, similar complete absence of logic.

Correlation is not Causation.

I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

What the Leafs are without JVR depends on what else they have in their lineup. The dilemma is you not acknowledging that.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 15, 2017, 01:54:03 PM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR.  You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem.  If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.

I did say in an earlier post that I would trade JVR for an upgrade on defence, but I just think that it is unlikely.

Trading JVR earlier than this year may have yielded a d-man.  His price seems to be dropping.  He may walk away for nothing at the end of the year, which in that case means the Leafs get worse next, and get nothing for him.  If they move him for picks, even if they get worse for the time being which is debatable, at least they can recoup some of that in potentially future pieces. 
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: AvroArrow on October 15, 2017, 02:52:08 PM
What about Josh Manson?  When Anaheim's other defenders get back from the IR.  We need the guy who can kill penalties, clear the zone, and deny zone entries more than the offensive player.  Of course the difference status (UFA vs under contract makes a huge difference.

Would love him but I suspect Anaheim wants him for the same reasons.  With all their offensive guys, they likely also want that kind of presence.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: sickbeast on October 15, 2017, 03:20:29 PM
The Leafs are in a great position with JVR.  It reminds me of the Blue Jays with Donaldson.  They can simply wait until the trade deadline and see where they're at.  If they're a playoff team, keep him.  If they're not, trade him for picks and prospects.  It's that simple.  While the Leafs are flush with skilled forwards, JVR is a big guy to lose, even if they can parlay him into a decent defenseman.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: mr grieves on October 15, 2017, 04:21:08 PM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.
What the Leafs are without JVR depends on what else they have in their lineup. The dilemma is you not acknowledging that.

Yeah, Dap thinks they're better with him than without, but hasn't explained how that works. If you drop Marleau, Leivo, Kapanen, Johnsson onto a line with Marner, the team's probably scoring fewer goals, has a less potent PP (so that unit plays less), but isn't giving up as much 5v5.

Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: RedLeaf on October 15, 2017, 09:53:53 PM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR.  You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem.  If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.

I did say in an earlier post that I would trade JVR for an upgrade on defence, but I just think that it is unlikely.

Trading JVR earlier than this year may have yielded a d-man.  His price seems to be dropping.  He may walk away for nothing at the end of the year, which in that case means the Leafs get worse next, and get nothing for him.  If they move him for picks, even if they get worse for the time being which is debatable, at least they can recoup some of that in potentially future pieces.

What makes you think his price is dropping? If anything Iíd say itís going up. Heís been scoring goals this season at a pretty decent clip.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 16, 2017, 05:46:36 AM
Lamoriello will take his time and make a decision to his strategic advantage.  He's been known to use time as a commodity rather than a weapon, so to speak.  So, whether JVR is traded, re-signed or is let go, will depend largely on Lou & management's view of where the team stands.

Also, as was the case with Connor Brown who signed at a 'discounted' or what's called a 'hometown discount', it's so possible that JVR will lower his contract (re-signing less for long-term), thus making it less difficult for the Leafs as per their salary cap.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Arn on October 16, 2017, 08:40:14 AM
Lamoriello will take his time and make a decision to his strategic advantage.  He's been known to use time as a commodity rather than a weapon, so to speak.  So, whether JVR is traded, re-signed or is let go, will depend largely on Lou & management's view of where the team stands.

Also, as was the case with Connor Brown who signed at a 'discounted' or what's called a 'hometown discount', it's so possible that JVR will lower his contract (re-signing less for long-term), thus making it less difficult for the Leafs as per their salary cap.

Why's that? Brown is from Ontario, JVR is from New Jersey?
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on October 16, 2017, 08:45:48 AM
Lamoriello will take his time and make a decision to his strategic advantage.  He's been known to use time as a commodity rather than a weapon, so to speak.  So, whether JVR is traded, re-signed or is let go, will depend largely on Lou & management's view of where the team stands.

Also, as was the case with Connor Brown who signed at a 'discounted' or what's called a 'hometown discount', it's so possible that JVR will lower his contract (re-signing less for long-term), thus making it less difficult for the Leafs as per their salary cap.

Why's that? Brown is from Ontario, JVR is from New Jersey?

It would be because he made his name here, no?

He's had the most successful time of his career in Toronto, so re-signing at a discount would be a 'hometown' discount, even though he's not literally from here.

There have also been numerous reports from the Leafs beat guys that JVR has openly acknowledged a willingness to take less $$$ for more term, ala Oshie.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: herman on October 16, 2017, 09:29:03 AM
It would be because he made his name here, no?

He's had the most successful time of his career in Toronto, so re-signing at a discount would be a 'hometown' discount, even though he's not literally from here.

There have also been numerous reports from the Leafs beat guys that JVR has openly acknowledged a willingness to take less $$$ for more term, ala Oshie.

Unfortunately for JvR, the number that we are more concerned about is the term.

Maybe he's an upper echelon athlete like Marleau appears to be, so 28+8 isn't going to give him much of a dip, but I'd rather another team figure that out. There isn't enough in JvR's game to suggest he can develop any new facets to round out his contributions if his speed declines.
Title: Re: What to do with JVR
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 16, 2017, 09:33:18 AM
I do think the Leafs are better with JVR than without, hence the dilemma.

I don't think that's a statement that can made without knowing what is coming back for JVR.  You said in another post that JVR would do well in Anahiem.  If the deal was JVR for Vatanen, then on paper it would seem that they would actually get stronger.

I did say in an earlier post that I would trade JVR for an upgrade on defence, but I just think that it is unlikely.

Trading JVR earlier than this year may have yielded a d-man.  His price seems to be dropping.  He may walk away for nothing at the end of the year, which in that case means the Leafs get worse next, and get nothing for him.  If they move him for picks, even if they get worse for the time being which is debatable, at least they can recoup some of that in potentially future pieces.

What makes you think his price is dropping? If anything Iíd say itís going up. Heís been scoring goals this season at a pretty decent clip.

The fact that he is a free agent at the end of the year probably affects the price.  Shattenkirk bolting from the Caps last year has probably soured some teams on high priced rentals.  It could be mitigated by allowing teams to talk to JvR before a trade, but that puts a little more power in to JvR's camp than it does the Leafs.  It also seems that the overall price of wingers is dropping.  Ever since the Hall for Larsson deal it seems that teams would rather spend assets to acquire players at other positions rather than on the wings.  These things don't mean that you won't get absolutely nothing for JvR, but if the Leafs had traded him during last season, or when they made the Kessel deal, they probably would have gotten more then they are if the move him this season.