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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 05:36:12 PM

Title: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 05:36:12 PM
3x6.25

Thx Carlton
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 05:37:56 PM
Honestly, it's a year longer and more money than I would have wanted without Thornton as a package deal, but I'm glad we signed him. Especially if it means we don't have to see Hyman with Matthews again. I mean, he HAS to have been signed to play 1LW, right?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 05:39:21 PM
Also, the Thornton contract isn't actually official yet. Let's do this buddy!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 05:42:36 PM

It's heavy on years/term like CTB says but it's money that figures to be spare until the big three extensions kick in so no real downside.

Patty Marleau, baby!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 05:45:58 PM
I agree, a year too long, but I'm sure they can handle what comes next, even if it means a buyout/trade in the final year.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 05:49:27 PM
I agree, a year too long, but I'm sure they can handle what comes next, even if it means a buyout/trade in the final year.

As a 35+ contract, if he's bought out at any point there wouldn't be any cap benefit. And if he retires before his contract finishes his cap hit will still count.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 05:51:41 PM
Marleau hasn't missed a single game in 8 straight seasons.

He's missed 31 games total in his 19 year NHL career.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: sickbeast on July 02, 2017, 05:54:00 PM
Wow! Amazing news.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 05:54:58 PM
I agree, a year too long, but I'm sure they can handle what comes next, even if it means a buyout/trade in the final year.

As a 35+ contract, if he's bought out at any point there wouldn't be any cap benefit. And if he retires before his contract finishes his cap hit will still count.

Marleau island is going to be a thing isn't it?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 02, 2017, 05:55:00 PM
Marleau really seemed to want that 3rd year. I'm actually surprised he left San Jose...Should be interesting!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 05:57:53 PM
Quote
Darren Dreger‏ @DarrenDreger
Marleau:  year 1) $8.5M 2) $6 mil. 3) $4.25

Heavily front loaded, so if the contract does need to be moved in the 3rd year that will make it a little easier.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 06:00:16 PM
Quote
Darren Dreger‏ @DarrenDreger
Marleau:  year 1) $8.5M 2) $6 mil. 3) $4.25

Heavily front loaded, so if the contract does need to be moved in the 3rd year that will make it a little easier.

Yup, July 2nd of year 3 and the team acquiring him only has 1.25 million to pay.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 06:01:09 PM
Marleau really seemed to want that 3rd year. I'm actually surprised he left San Jose...Should be interesting!

I think it's pretty safe to say that the deal doesn't get done without the 3rd year. So while we may prefer a 2 year deal, it's pretty likely the choice was 3 years or no Marleau.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:01:24 PM
Quote
Darren Dreger‏ @DarrenDreger
Marleau:  year 1) $8.5M 2) $6 mil. 3) $4.25

Heavily front loaded, so if the contract does need to be moved in the 3rd year that will make it a little easier.

Yup, July 2nd of year 3 and the team acquiring him only has 1.25 million to pay.

Ah yes, I missed that:

Quote
Pierre LeBrun‏ @PierreVLeBrun
$7 M signing bonus in Year 1, $4.5 M SB in Year 2 and $3 M SB in Year 3
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:07:08 PM
www.twitter.com/TLNdc/status/881632580201840640

*although I gotta think this means JVR's a goner.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: jdh1 on July 02, 2017, 06:08:03 PM
I,m wondering how a 37 year old can keep up with the young guns?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 02, 2017, 06:08:31 PM
I think it's pretty safe to say that the deal doesn't get done without the 3rd year. So while we may prefer a 2 year deal, it's pretty likely the choice was 3 years or no Marleau.

Yeah, I'm assuming that San Jose offered close to the same deal that is rumoured for Joe T. At any rate, I love that he's an ironman and if anyone can do three years at his age, it's probably him.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 06:09:43 PM
So it's actually a pretty smart contract. It's basically giving him three years worth of money over two years with a pretty strong likelihood that he doesn't play the third year here(or anywhere).
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:10:34 PM
I,m wondering how a 37 year old can keep up with the young guns?

Even at 37 Marleau is probably one of the faster guys in the league.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: gunnar36 on July 02, 2017, 06:11:21 PM
I'm actually a little shocked, maybe puzzled by this one.  I would have to think they are shopping one or both of Bozak or JVR.  I count 16 competent forwards now that should be playing next season if you include Soshinikov, Kapanen and Leivo...seems like a bit of a log jam up front.
I'm all for some veteran presence but we really bumped up the average age with the last 3 signings. Admittedly, I haven't paid much attention to Marleau the past few seasons, but you really think he is still a $6 million guy?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:12:14 PM
I just saw this suggested on twitter... what are the odds they give Marleau the C for a couple of seasons?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 02, 2017, 06:14:26 PM
I just saw this suggested on twitter... what are the odds they give Marleau the C for a couple of seasons?

Could be a good move. Keeps the pressure off Matthews for a few years and gives him a mentor/ line-mate to learn more from.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 06:18:43 PM
I just saw this suggested on twitter... what are the odds they give Marleau the C for a couple of seasons?

I could see it, but honestly, I'm not crazy about pinning the C on a guy who just got here, unless it's someone who is going to come in and be the best player.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 06:19:43 PM
I just saw this suggested on twitter... what are the odds they give Marleau the C for a couple of seasons?

I don't think it makes a ton of sense. I think it puts a ton of pressure on a player to expect him to come into a new situation and instantly be the leader of a bunch of players he's not terribly familiar with and, as coaches and players like to say in interviews, it's not like putting a C on his chest will fundamentally alter whatever leadership qualities he brings.

I don't know if Matthews is ready, or even if Matthews is the right choice among the young players, but I wouldn't force it regardless.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Britishbulldog on July 02, 2017, 06:24:39 PM
This is a perfect signing in my books with the salary structure.  The term is probably what's needed to convince him to come to the Leafs and he is bigger, heavier and a significant offensive upgrade on Hyman.  Wow!!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 02, 2017, 06:26:57 PM
I just saw this suggested on twitter... what are the odds they give Marleau the C for a couple of seasons?

I could see it, but honestly, I'm not crazy about pinning the C on a guy who just got here, unless it's someone who is going to come in and be the best player.

Let's see what he does with the locker room stereo system first.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:28:57 PM
So, what we likely look like as of right now:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Hyman

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Hainsey
Marincin/Dermott/Swede-Carrick

Andersen
McBackup

*Hyman's always been the only winger on the team playing his off-wing. Even if JVR or Komarov get dealt, I hope this move slides him over to the right side.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: L K on July 02, 2017, 06:34:07 PM
This kind of veteran is a hell of a lot more valuable to me than Hainsey or Moore.

Three years doesn't lock the Leafs in.  Marleau isn't who he used to be but he's still fast, good defensively and provides a good veteran presence on the forward group. 

Find a top 4 defenseman and this is a great offseason.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: gunnar36 on July 02, 2017, 06:38:13 PM
So, what we likely look like as of right now:

Marleau-Matthews-Nylander
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
JVR-Bozak-Marner
Martin-Moore-Hyman

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Hainsey
Marincin/Dermott/Swede-Carrick

Andersen
McBackup

*Hyman's always been the only winger on the team playing his off-wing. Even if JVR or Komarov get dealt, I hope this move slides him over to the right side.
They need to find a way to at least get one of Kapanen or Soshinikov into lineup full time.  They are both excellent forecheckers and can play valuable pk minutes. Yes, you will argue that Moore and Marleau will do the same, but i see youthfulness as an asset in providing a more effective and relentless forecheck.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 06:39:37 PM
I'm actually a little shocked, maybe puzzled by this one.  I would have to think they are shopping one or both of Bozak or JVR.  I count 16 competent forwards now that should be playing next season if you include Soshinikov, Kapanen and Leivo...seems like a bit of a log jam up front.
I'm all for some veteran presence but we really bumped up the average age with the last 3 signings. Admittedly, I haven't paid much attention to Marleau the past few seasons, but you really think he is still a $6 million guy?

6 million as a number is a pretty flexible concept. Is he worth 6 million the same way a RFA is? No. Is he worth 6 million the way a 29 year old UFA getting 7 years is? Again, probably not.

My expectations for him are that he can be a 45-50 point guy with at least 20-25 of those being goals while being solid defensively and a good locker room presence. What would I ideally pay for someone like that? Less than 6 million, sure, but realistically that doesn't happen in this case. You are paying a premium for making this happen and it's not a bad one or likely to hurt the team in any meaningful way.

What this also does is let the leafs have some movable assets when trying to shore up the D. Trading JVR or Brown with Marleau already in the fold lets them do it from a position of strength where they don't have to worry about how they can fill a top 6 spot. How they shape the 4th line beyond that is, you know, kind of champagne problems.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 02, 2017, 06:42:06 PM
Soshnikov also played his off wing while he was in the lineup, but I think he's Leivo's new buddy.

Hyman moving back to the right side would only make him more effective.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: riff raff on July 02, 2017, 06:46:44 PM
I'm shocked, really. I thought he was using the Leafs as a bargaining manoeuver with San Jose.

I guess he really enjoyed playing for Mike Babcock. Wasn't there someone who said veterans wouldn't want to play for him?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: mr grieves on July 02, 2017, 06:54:18 PM
I'm not sure whether this means Hyman's pushed down the line-up or JVR's been freed up to be traded for some defense, but either way the team's improved. And they seem to be going for it. Good.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 02, 2017, 06:54:42 PM
They need to find a way to at least get one of Kapanen or Soshinikov into lineup full time.  They are both excellent forecheckers and can play valuable pk minutes. Yes, you will argue that Moore and Marleau will do the same, but i see youthfulness as an asset in providing a more effective and relentless forecheck.

Kapanen is going to have to be patient. He'll either get his chance when JVR is traded, or maybe next season when JVR and Bozak potentially walk (which would open up 1 top-9 wing spot, or potentially 2 wing spots if Nylander slides to centre). He's also still exempt from waivers so him playing another season in the AHL wouldn't be the end of the world.

As far as Soshnikov goes, I don't see him being more than a 4th liner. Albeit, a 4th liner that I like. But with Martin taking up 1 spot, there's a lot of competition for the other spot so he's in a very tough situation. Any one of Hyman or Soshnikov or Kapanen or Leivo would be fine there.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 02, 2017, 06:59:42 PM
Marleau - Matthews - Marner/Kapanen
Komarov - Kadri - Brown/Marner
JvR - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown
Leivo - Moore - Hyman
Martin

Gardiner - Hainsey
Rielly - Zaitsev
Marincin - Carrick
Dermott - Marchenko

This assumes Bozak is the move out (for whoever lost out on Bonino).

We really have to play Marner with one of our LCs to get more out of him.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: L K on July 02, 2017, 07:07:16 PM
That Matthews-Marner-Marleau line.  Mmm
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Joe S. on July 02, 2017, 07:07:40 PM
Why does this automatically mean jvr is gone? Are trams only allowed to have 1 talented lw at a time?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 07:16:36 PM
Why does this automatically mean jvr is gone? Are trams only allowed to have 1 talented lw at a time?

This move put the team over the cap without LTIR, considering JVR is in the last year of a contract that is paying him significantly less than he is worth, it's not a giant leap to suggest he needs to be traded before being lost for nothing.

Especially if he's the centrepiece of a deal that nets you a youngish RD.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 07:16:54 PM
Why does this automatically mean jvr is gone? Are trams only allowed to have 1 talented lw at a time?

It doesn't but as has been pointed out it creates a surplus of forwards who deserve roster spots and the guy with a lot of trade value who they really can't re-sign has always been the most logical trade option. The one real argument for not trading JVR was the team's lack of depth at LW and this addresses that.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Joe S. on July 02, 2017, 07:20:32 PM
I guess I just like jvr and I'm not as high in Leivo,  soshnikov or kapanen as top line forwards.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 07:23:45 PM
I guess I just like jvr and I'm not as high in Leivo,  soshnikov or kapanen as top line forwards.

I like JVR too but the realities of the cap are what they are. He's an expiring deal that can be turned into assets.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on July 02, 2017, 07:25:46 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 02, 2017, 07:28:00 PM
I guess I just like jvr and I'm not as high in Leivo,  soshnikov or kapanen as top line forwards.

I like JVR too but the realities of the cap are what they are. He's an expiring deal that can be turned into assets.

Yeah, JVR probably comes in at 7AAV on a long term deal... Besides, I agree with above, if he can bring a youngish 1-2 defenseman, it's a no brainer.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 07:30:38 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...

If the wink-wink, nudge-nudge of the deal is he plays two years and then retires then I don't see the NTC as a big problem.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: KadriFan on July 02, 2017, 07:36:52 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...

If the wink-wink, nudge-nudge of the deal is he plays two years and then retires then I don't see the NTC as a big problem.

If he retires after two, won't his 6.25M still go against the cap?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 07:39:37 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...

If the wink-wink, nudge-nudge of the deal is he plays two years and then retires then I don't see the NTC as a big problem.

If he retires after two, won't his 6.25M still go against the cap?

Hw won't retire, he'll go to a special island for a year before retiring or he'll be traded.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: KadriFan on July 02, 2017, 07:43:50 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...

If the wink-wink, nudge-nudge of the deal is he plays two years and then retires then I don't see the NTC as a big problem.

If he retires after two, won't his 6.25M still go against the cap?

Hw won't retire, he'll go to a special island for a year before retiring or he'll be traded.

Oh ok.  I thought that if you sign a player over35, you're on the hook for the whole contract.  I guess they could trade him
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: cabber24 on July 02, 2017, 07:45:49 PM
Oooooooohoohooooooho! I approve! Use that cap space, shouldn't impact the kids resigning. Makes it more difficult signing Doughty next summer...
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 07:47:41 PM
I havent seen this mentioned but he has a full no-trade clause. That means that despite the salary structure, it may be undumpable... although the salary has to be like that for a reason ...

If the wink-wink, nudge-nudge of the deal is he plays two years and then retires then I don't see the NTC as a big problem.

If he retires after two, won't his 6.25M still go against the cap?

Sure but just like Pronger or Datsyuk you can trade the deal and if Marleau is effectively retired he won't care what team isn't paying him.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: cabber24 on July 02, 2017, 08:31:26 PM
Playing with Matthews and Nylander is probably a pretty compelling reason to sign. Could get 200 points out of that trio.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 09:02:24 PM
hahaha this is awesome! Like Lou says, this is the only time we could pull a move like this and not have it hinder the big picture in any way shape or form. Dude's gettin' paid, who cares... Marleau is that solid vet with something left to give for the next phase. Great signing! Welcome to Terranna Patrick!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 09:09:53 PM

Dangle's analysis:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76mN0Zl5mEg
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 09:12:58 PM

Doesn't really seem like Lamoriello addressed the question at all. The question wasn't about whether or not it fit in with the cap or how they build the team it was about Marleau's age and the term of the deal.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Arn on July 02, 2017, 09:18:45 PM
I like this move. I'm excited. It fits. And it says Toronto is a destination for players with ambition again.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 02, 2017, 09:25:25 PM
Not sure about this signing as I don't know how good Marleau is anymore. Hope he's rejuvenated playing with the kids
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 09:28:11 PM

Oh my...
Like, how do you handle it? Three lines that can hurt you and a high-energy fourth line. And Auston gets a left-winger that can finish!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 09:30:36 PM

Oh my...
Like, how do you handle it? Three lines that can hurt you and a high-energy fourth line.

Well, for starters, those won't be the lines. Or, if they are, someone is going to have to explain the thought process in losing Leipsic by protecting Martin and then not have Martin playing.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 02, 2017, 09:30:52 PM
Not sure about this signing as I don't know how good Marleau is anymore. Hope he's rejuvenated playing with the kids

27 goals last year, he can still skate very well. I lived in San Jose for 5 years and follow the team fairly closely, still have a lot of Sharks fan friends and they love him.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: AvroArrow on July 02, 2017, 09:43:42 PM
Woohoo!  Yeah!!! Jackpot!  If we can somehow swing JvR for Demers, the cup is practically ours!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Big Daddy on July 02, 2017, 09:44:05 PM
Next big question is will Conner Brown give up his #12.  Haha  I know!!
Wonder which number he switches to.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 10:08:30 PM
"I think it's going to be a fountain of youth for him..."
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 10:13:09 PM
Two generations... one mission.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 02, 2017, 10:15:54 PM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 02, 2017, 10:19:54 PM
Well, I get the arguments but he's 37.  I understand why they made this bet, but it could go south in a hurry if he can't keep up.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: jdh1 on July 02, 2017, 10:39:48 PM
I,m wondering how a 37 year old can keep up with the young guns?

Even at 37 Marleau is probably one of the faster guys in the league.

Well that,s good to know,I didn,t know much about him being out west.If he,s still got the wheels,hopefully he still got the hands to get 25 or 30 goals.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 02, 2017, 11:00:33 PM
Cullen of TSN:


He’s a 14-time 20-goal scorer, including last season when he buried 27, but there are some reasons to be wary about his production moving forward. Over the past three seasons, he has 1.35 points/60 during 5-on-5 play, the same as Alex Burrows and Nikolai Kulemin.

Another concern is that Marleau shot 14.2% last season, his best rate since 2009-2010. This matters because he generated 2.32 shots per game last season, his lowest since 2002-2003. If his shooting percentage comes down, that shot rate had better bounce back if he’s going to maintain this level of production.

Even if his game is declining, he’s not exactly limping towards the finish of his career. Marleau is still a very strong skater, has good size and hasn’t missed a game since 2008-2009....

Verdict: Adding Marleau does make the Maple Leafs better, but it’s really difficult to foresee his production from ages 38 to 40 being enough to justify the terms of this contract. The signing does indicate that Toronto sees that their window to be a contender is open, and they’re right, but there is a fair chance that the return does not match the investment. But, if the Maple Leafs end up going further in the playoffs with Marleau in the lineup, criticism will be muted.

So, some cautionary notes along with the upside.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 11:20:45 PM

That seems like the sort of criticism that thinks of value in a production/dollars paid sense as a static concept that exists free of context.

Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 02, 2017, 11:26:50 PM

That seems like the sort of criticism that thinks of value in a production/dollars paid sense as a static concept that exists free of context.

Honestly, I'd guess that the odds that Marleau plays a shift for the Leafs in the 3rd year of that contract as 75/25 against with the 25 only happening if the first two years are really successful. Looking at it with a real concern for what his production might be at 40 seems to be sort of willfully ignoring the reality of the circumstances.

Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?  Who presumably set him up a lot.  I just hope that isn't the beginning of a downward trend that, at his age, is almost inevitable.  If he's not getting lots of shots on goal, then he becomes less of an upgrade on Hyman.

The indisputably good thing, I hasten to add, is that this surely pushes Hyman down the depth chart, where he belongs. 

I also should add I'm not so worried about his 5/5 points avg -- if he plays with AM and Willie then that will go up I'd bet.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 02, 2017, 11:57:07 PM
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 03, 2017, 12:02:06 AM
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.

OK, thanks for correcting me on that point.  I don't watch the Sharks much (obviously) and just assumed he played with Thornton.  That eases my concern somewhat.  But I still am leery of term going to a guy who'll be 38 when he first suits up for us. 

I just hope Lou is not Burke-ing the Shanaplan to kingdom come.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 12:19:09 AM
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?

Not primarily. He played 1100 ES minutes last year(1104 to be exact) and he played with Thornton for 369 of them. He played more with Pavelski, who's a shooter, and he played even more with Burns who was taking a ton of shots.

But again, worrying about his production maybe dropping is reasonable. Doing so in the context of worrying about whether his production will match his cap hit, especially in the third year seems better suited to some sort of salary capped fantasy league than the particulars of this actual contract.

OK, thanks for correcting me on that point.  I don't watch the Sharks much (obviously) and just assumed he played with Thornton.  That eases my concern somewhat.  But I still am leery of term going to a guy who'll be 38 when he first suits up for us. 

The absolute worst case scenario is that Marleau is old and plays terrible and a team that doesn't really need cap space has some of it tied up in a AHL player who is old and terrible.

There were no options to improve the team that weren't going to have a risk or downside of any sort. If Patrick Marleau were 34 he'd be looking for 6 years, not 3 and he'd be looking for 7-8 million per, not 6.

There's a potential downside to this deal, as there is all deals, but the actual chances of that downside really negatively affecting the team are very, very low.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2017, 07:28:23 AM
I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes.  Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

But I believe somebody said you don't always get what you want ...

It does seem reasonable to take some risk for no asset cost rather than no risk at all.  It is a brief contention window.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2017, 07:42:55 AM
I might also have preferred this kind of trade for Marcus Johansson:

https://www.sbnation.com/2017/7/2/15911934/marcus-johansson-trade-capitals-devils-nhl

It's a steal by the Devils. Minimal assets given up.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2017, 08:15:53 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bullfrog on July 03, 2017, 08:22:13 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 03, 2017, 08:23:07 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 03, 2017, 08:23:53 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.

Ya the problem with Nolan was injury related. There is no indication Marleau will have the problem. Nolan had a history of injuries prior to that trade if I recall correctly.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 08:40:30 AM
I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes. 

That's operating under the assumption that what Williams signed for is the absolute maximum the Canes would have offered. If Williams was open to offers from the highest bidder there's every chance that what it would have taken to sign him wasn't outbidding what he got by a nominal amount by increasing the term as well.

Quote
Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

Again, the "risk of the third year" is effectively saying that you're worried that this front office can't pull off what pretty much every other front office seems to be able to when they've got a contract like this. A 6 million dollar cap hit with only 1.5 million in salary isn't going to be terribly hard to move.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 08:51:25 AM
Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

Again, the "risk of the third year" is effectively saying that you're worried that this front office can't pull off what pretty much every other front office seems to be able to when they've got a contract like this. A 6 million dollar cap hit with only 1.5 million in salary isn't going to be terribly hard to move.

It's also assuming that Williams wouldn't have demanded a 3rd year from the Leafs just like Marleau did. Williams spent 5 years in Carolina. He and is family already have a lot of familiarity there. But if he was uprooting his entire family to a new city for the first time then he might have needed the extra year for stability just like Marleau did.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 08:57:58 AM
What I really like about this deal (and the pursuit of Thornton) is that it shows management recognizes that there's a clear window to win a Stanley Cup in the next 2 years. That's not to say that the window closes after Matthews and Marner get their next contracts of course, but it changes a little bit. I wasn't sure if they would kind of sit on their hands a little bit and just be happy with whatever success comes their way during that time, and I'm glad that doesn't seem to be the case. They gotta go for it.

This team right now, especially in the current era that doesn't see a juggernaut like Chicago or LA or Boston exist anymore, is good enough to win the Cup with some tweaks. Marleau was one of those. Getting another defencemen now, or maybe waiting until the deadline if need to, is the next step.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 09:12:59 AM
Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?  Who presumably set him up a lot.

This season, San Jose's lines were pretty fluid. Marleau often bounced around everywhere in the top-9. It should be noted though that of his 27 goals this past season, just 5 were assisted by Thornton. And just 2 of those were at even-strength.

edit: And in the 2015-16 season they actually barely played together at 5-on-5. Just 36 of Marleau's 1000+ even strength minutes were spent with Thornton. They did play on the same PP unit though.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: L K on July 03, 2017, 09:15:48 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: KadriFan on July 03, 2017, 09:20:58 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: L K on July 03, 2017, 09:27:42 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well

Lupul and Horton immediately go on LTIR and clear 10.5M off the cap that puts the Leafs at 64M.  A chunk of that goes away with the bonus overages but the Leafs are fine financially right now.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bullfrog on July 03, 2017, 09:28:46 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

Plus, and this is most important to me, they haven't given away any valuable future assets (picks or prospects) to get here, aside from the Andersen trade and losing Leipsic.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: KadriFan on July 03, 2017, 09:30:23 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well

Lupul and Horton immediately go on LTIR and clear 10.5M off the cap that puts the Leafs at 64M.  A chunk of that goes away with the bonus overages but the Leafs are fine financially right now.

Oh ok.  I thought they had to be under the cap before the season starts.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Highlander on July 03, 2017, 09:31:26 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.
Ya but the we didnt give up any assests to get him, no #1's
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 03, 2017, 10:32:50 AM
What I really like about this deal (and the pursuit of Thornton) is that it shows management recognizes that there's a clear window to win a Stanley Cup in the next 2 years. That's not to say that the window closes after Matthews and Marner get their next contracts of course, but it changes a little bit. I wasn't sure if they would kind of sit on their hands a little bit and just be happy with whatever success comes their way during that time, and I'm glad that doesn't seem to be the case. They gotta go for it.

This team right now, especially in the current era that doesn't see a juggernaut like Chicago or LA or Boston exist anymore, is good enough to win the Cup with some tweaks. Marleau was one of those. Getting another defencemen now, or maybe waiting until the deadline if need to, is the next step.

This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2017, 10:33:33 AM
I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.
Ya but the we didnt give up any assests to get him, no #1's
The Nolan comparison is just the fact that he's a big name player whose best years were behind him by the time he got to the Leafs.  There's no comparison in terms of losing assets cause Marleau is just money. Hope he's good.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 10:43:52 AM

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 10:45:32 AM
This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

Demers is still my dream target (in that he's the best available RH defenceman). But the report of him nixing a trade to Vancouver worried me. I think it's possible he wouldn't really want to play up north. He's spent his entire career in some pretty nice climates (San Jose, Dallas, and now Florida). Hopefully it had more to do with Vancouver not being any good.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2017, 11:28:04 AM
This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

Demers is still my dream target (in that he's the best available RH defenceman). But the report of him nixing a trade to Vancouver worried me. I think it's possible he wouldn't really want to play up north. He's spent his entire career in some pretty nice climates (San Jose, Dallas, and now Florida). Hopefully it had more to do with Vancouver not being any good.
That would be awesome if he nixed a trade to the Canucks cause they stink but accepted a trade to the Leafs. That would annoy Canucks fans.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: RedLeaf on July 03, 2017, 11:35:55 AM

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on July 03, 2017, 11:36:37 AM
I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes. 

That's operating under the assumption that what Williams signed for is the absolute maximum the Canes would have offered. If Williams was open to offers from the highest bidder there's every chance that what it would have taken to sign him wasn't outbidding what he got by a nominal amount by increasing the term as well.

Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau).  But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances.  He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know.  Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.

Quote
Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

Again, the "risk of the third year" is effectively saying that you're worried that this front office can't pull off what pretty much every other front office seems to be able to when they've got a contract like this. A 6 million dollar cap hit with only 1.5 million in salary isn't going to be terribly hard to move.
[/quote]

I read your argument before and I get it.  If Marleau wants to retire, I'm certain the deal is moveable at the cost of some draft pick (you can factor in that draft pick to Marleau's current cost if you would like).  There is a some risk he doesn't want to retire and wants to stay with the leafs. I'm not sure how to quantify that risk because I haven't chatted with him personally.  😉

Edit: my markup skills leave something to be desired.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 12:11:24 PM

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

Well, except the direct comparison is worrying about age vs worrying about injury. Lindros was only 32 when he signed here but hadn't been played a full season in years. Nieuwendyk was 37 and relatively healthy.

So, yeah, Nieuwendyk.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 03, 2017, 12:20:58 PM

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

Well, except the direct comparison is worrying about age vs worrying about injury. Lindros was only 32 when he signed here but hadn't been played a full season in years. Nieuwendyk was 37 and relatively healthy.

So, yeah, Nieuwendyk.

Wait a sec, Nolan came from SJ, Marleau came from SJ. They must be the same!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: mr grieves on July 03, 2017, 12:41:09 PM
This is an obvious point but [if] they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

I'm not sure they are "ditching" the Shanaplan, and I'm certain I wouldn't've have misgivings about the Burkeplan if we already a 1C, 1W, 2C, 4F, 3 top-4 defensemen, and a decent starter. Getting Marleau seems pretty consistent with, or the logical next step from, making a move for Andersen last season. Was that not the "Shanaplan"? 

But I agree it's important to make another move to upgrade the defense. If there's the recognition that the Leafs' first window is open, gotta get what you need to climb through.

Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 03, 2017, 12:43:42 PM
Agreed, this is a complimentary piece for basically zero asset cost (cap space) and it's structured in a way to give them team plenty of flexibility.

I'm not sure I understand some people's need to overreact to this.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 12:48:27 PM
Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau).  But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances.  He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know.  Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.

Except that's why it's probably not a great idea to compare real deals to ones that may or may not have ever been possibilities. I'd prefer Shattenkirk at 3 years, 22.5 million to Hainsey at 2/6 but that doesn't factor too much into how I look at the Hainsey deal.

But also, like I said, the Marleau deal should be proof positive that if we're going to start with the reasonable assumption that if a well regarded UFA signs on the first day that the team he signs with is where he wants to be then "outbidding" that deal can easily mean in term as well as just dollars.

Quote
I read your argument before and I get it.  If Marleau wants to retire, I'm certain the deal is moveable at the cost of some draft pick (you can factor in that draft pick to Marleau's current cost if you would like).  There is a some risk he doesn't want to retire and wants to stay with the leafs. I'm not sure how to quantify that risk because I haven't chatted with him personally.  😉

Edit: my markup skills leave something to be desired.

I'm not trying to repeat myself but, with all due respect, I'm not sure you do get my argument. Saying that the "risk" can be ameliorated by trading away a draft pick in the final year isn't my argument. My argument is that trading his final year contract might not "cost" anything.

Look at the Datsyuk and Pronger deals. This was the Datsyuk deal:

To Arizona: pick #16, Pavel Datsyuk

To Detroit: picks #20 and #53, Joe Vitale

Then, for Pronger:

To Arizona: Chris Pronger, Nicklaus Grossman

To Philadelphia: Sam Gagner, Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick

In both cases, the teams that traded the dead money deals gained picks. I won't necessarily go so far as to say they were assets but the teams that had them got rid of them without really sacrificing a thing.

As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 12:52:02 PM
As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.

His NMC would mean he's not going to the AHL, but yeah I'm becoming more and more convinced that Marleau has no intention whatsoever of playing that third year given what his actual in-season pay-cheques are going to amount to.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 12:53:18 PM
As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.

His NMC would mean he's not going to the AHL, but yeah I'm becoming more and more convinced that Marleau has no intention whatsoever of playing that third year given what his actual in-season pay-cheques are going to amount to.

Ah, I hadn't heard that he'd gotten a NMC in addition to the NTC but even then, replace the AHL with the press box.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 03, 2017, 01:00:17 PM
Even if they don't trade the third year, I'm near certain he'll be LTIR.

The only way I can even imagine otherwise is if he and Matthews destroy the league together for the next two seasons and it'd be unthinkable for him not to play.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 03, 2017, 01:21:53 PM
Capfriendly is listing Marleau's contract only as an NMC, so it's only trade by permission. I don't think it'll be a problem though.

Hainsey has a modified NTC.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: RedLeaf on July 03, 2017, 01:44:34 PM

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

Well, except the direct comparison is worrying about age vs worrying about injury. Lindros was only 32 when he signed here but hadn't been played a full season in years. Nieuwendyk was 37 and relatively healthy.

So, yeah, Nieuwendyk.

Thanks for doing my homework for me Nik.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 01:50:17 PM
Thanks for doing my homework for me Nik.

Hey, some people need the help. No shame in it.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: RedLeaf on July 03, 2017, 01:52:17 PM
Thanks for doing my homework for me Nik.

Hey, some people need the help. No shame in it.

Nope. Just pure unadulterated laziness today. No excuse whatsoever.  ;)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Rebel_1812 on July 03, 2017, 02:41:53 PM
I don't like this signing.  For that kind of money, they could have got Phaneuf back.  They needed a defenseman not another forward.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: AvroArrow on July 03, 2017, 03:25:54 PM
I don't like this signing.  For that kind of money, they could have got Phaneuf back.  They needed a defenseman not another forward.

1) This doesn't prevent or preclude us from getting another defenseman.
2) If needed, we can trade JvR and/or Bozak for cap space and/or assets required.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 03, 2017, 03:53:49 PM

Good article about the signing

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html (https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html)

Seems like Thornton was never a real possibility.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 03, 2017, 04:15:59 PM
Cons:
- Age and Mileage: Yes he hasn't missed a game since 2009, plus extra-curricular tournaments/Olympics, but that doesn't mean he won't ever miss a game
- Term: the third year overlaps with the season we're paying all 3 of the Kids; but the contract is very tradeable should Marleau choose to 'retire'.
- Value: That's a lot of dollars for declining performance; paying for the name, essentially.

Pros:
- Speed and skill style of play; still very speedy relative to the increasingly younger and faster league
- He's basically JvR+: former 2OA pick, LH shot, big, fast, scores from net front in a variety of ways, doesn't play hard on the body, but more defensively responsible, can take draws well.
- Pushes better wingers lower on the lineup; we're still insisting on Martin eating up a spot, so it can only get so much better
- He has all the intangibles Martin can't cover: how to be a skilled star in the league, preparation for longevity and durability with a skill game, on-ice leadership, team loyalty
- Might be exactly the right type of leader to match Matthews' personality:
Quote
Roenick has criticized Marleau in the past – mostly for a lack of heart and emotion. The two were teammates for two seasons before Roenick retired in 2009.

I talked with Marleau today about his relationship with Roenick, now a TV analyst in addition to author.

“He’s got his own agenda,” the 33-year-old former Sharks captain said. “He’s saying stuff so people watch. I understand that. I don’t have to like it or agree with it, but he’s trying to get viewers like you’re trying to get people to read the paper. I don’t take it personally or anything like that.”

As far as the perception that he lacks emotion, Marleau addressed that, too.

“I can see how people would think that because I’m very stoic,” he said. “I tried to keep it controlled, but believe me, the emotions are running. Sometimes I think if you just show emotion to show it, you’re draining yourself and it’s not really for anybody’s benefit.”

More (http://blogs.mercurynews.com/sharks/2012/11/12/roenicks-new-book-takes-shots-at-marleau-hes-got-his-own-agenda-the-ex-captain-responds/?doing_wp_cron=1499103679.4963130950927734375000)

Responses to the Cons:
- Age and Mileage: The Leafs as a group were unusually durable, and I suspect their focus on rest and recovery via their sports science department had a lot to do with that -- e.g. Hunwick was able to rehab up to speed, seeing what Rielly did in the playoffs on a high ankle sprain
- Term: the Cap hit / (actual salary - signing bonus) ratio is heavily stacked to help another team reach the floor for a minimal spend.
- Value: We have a lot of LTIR space that went unused; if you have it, might as well leverage it while your primary core is cheap

Ultimately, Marleau is not a core player on the Leafs, and while he's expensive, we have money lying around. It brings more balance to the scoring side of the equation, by either pushing top-9 players into the bottom-3, or giving more of a safety net to turning JvR/Bozak into depth elsewhere. I think Lou is accurate in saying this was a unique opportunity to hire a contributing on-ice mentor for the core. Performance bonus overages will get pushed to next season, but that's something that can push into our open cap space the following season when Lupul, whatever is left of the 3 UFAers, and Gleason, etc. come off the books.

If the move pays off, it could pay off handsomely; if it doesn't work out, the only real possible reason would be injury and that in itself has a built-in solution.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 03, 2017, 04:29:38 PM

Good article about the signing

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html (https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html)

Seems like Thornton was never a real possibility.

Reading Thornton's comments about it always being San Jose makes me even more surprised we landed Marleau. Yes, we're paying him very handsomely, but still this is like Sundin leaving Toronto to play for Vancouver if the Leafs were actually still good at that time.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 03, 2017, 04:30:30 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/patrick-marleau-bring-toronto-maple-leafs/

This is good chart.
(http://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Marleau.png)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Deebo on July 03, 2017, 04:37:32 PM
Herman, your ability to find ways to mention Martin in unrelated topics is pretty impressive.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 03, 2017, 05:54:08 PM
Herman, your ability to find ways to mention Martin in unrelated topics is pretty impressive.

:)

I see them as similar moves, except one is for skill while the other is for toughness. Both are for veteran experience and mentorship, whatever that is worth (it's not worth nothing, but it's also not worth a lineup slot without some scoring). 
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bill_Berg on July 03, 2017, 06:02:08 PM

Good article about the signing

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html (https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/sports/courtship-joe-thornton-patrick-marleau-183610401.html)

Seems like Thornton was never a real possibility.

Reading Thornton's comments about it always being San Jose makes me even more surprised we landed Marleau. Yes, we're paying him very handsomely, but still this is like Sundin leaving Toronto to play for Vancouver if the Leafs were actually still good at that time.

So Joe was willing to take a little less to have Marleau resign? That's interesting.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 03, 2017, 07:43:27 PM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 03, 2017, 09:09:11 PM
"I’m still full of piss and vinegar and I know the kids they have here are full of it"

T.O. media lesson #1, Patty: Never, ever say anything that can be taken out of context.  In other words, never say anything remotely interesting.

PS: Saying "I'm going to feed off it" in the next line is ... er, odd.  Unless you're Gandhi.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Britishbulldog on July 04, 2017, 12:06:33 AM
They need to find a way to at least get one of Kapanen or Soshinikov into lineup full time.  They are both excellent forecheckers and can play valuable pk minutes. Yes, you will argue that Moore and Marleau will do the same, but i see youthfulness as an asset in providing a more effective and relentless forecheck.

Kapanen is going to have to be patient. He'll either get his chance when JVR is traded, or maybe next season when JVR and Bozak potentially walk (which would open up 1 top-9 wing spot, or potentially 2 wing spots if Nylander slides to centre). He's also still exempt from waivers so him playing another season in the AHL wouldn't be the end of the world.

As far as Soshnikov goes, I don't see him being more than a 4th liner. Albeit, a 4th liner that I like. But with Martin taking up 1 spot, there's a lot of competition for the other spot so he's in a very tough situation. Any one of Hyman or Soshnikov or Kapanen or Leivo would be fine there.

I agree 100% CtB.  Kapanen has 2 years or 137 NHL games to go before he has to clear waivers.  The Leafs need to maximize that.

Soshnikov is also waiver exempt to so I think he won't be on the big club and could be trade bait with his useful role.

I expect the lineup to look like:
Marleau / Matthews / Nylander
JVR  / Bozak / Marner
Komarov / Kadri / Brown
Martin / Moore / Hyman
Fehr + Smith in the press box
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: hockeyfan1 on July 04, 2017, 03:05:06 AM
Marleau calls the Leafs youngsters a "special group", and talks of what really sold him on signing with the team:

Quote
“They just kept talking to me about the excitement in and around the team, talking to me about the group of guys that they have there right now and how they eat, sleep and breathe hockey,” said Marleau, the Sharks’ all-time goals and points leader.

“That sold me. I want to be part of that. They say they have a special group. I want to be one of those guys that plays there. Hopefully, we can build on that and have some success.”

“He brings that excitement to the game. I watched him this year out here on the west coast,” Marleau said of Matthews.

“You see these guys love the game. They’re ready to go. They’re tons and tons of energy. It’s exciting to watch. I want to be a part of it.”

The cherry on top of being a Maple Leaf for Marleau is getting to play for coach Mike Babcock again.

“It definitely played a huge factor in it,” Marleau said of Babcock’s impact on his decision. “I look forward to having that pressure on me and having him want things out of me and pushing me. I expect a lot out of myself and I know he does, too. I’m ready for the work.”



http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/patrick-marleau-excited-maple-leafs-special-group/ (http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/patrick-marleau-excited-maple-leafs-special-group/)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 04, 2017, 11:18:03 AM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: slapshot on July 04, 2017, 03:22:40 PM
The media is sure going to town on the Marleau contract's 3rd year. I'm not too worried about. I have confidence, the Shanaplan can make it go away if they need to. Meanwhile, the Leafs certainly have a plethora of forwards. Assuming these are the top 12. They have at least 3 leftovers plenty capable of playing.

Top 12
Marleau Matthews Nylander
JVR    Bozak    Marner
Komo Kadri Brown
Martin Moore Hyman

Leftover: Kapanen, Sosh and Leivo

It seems a pretty sure bet that at some point, they move some of their inventory up front for the top 4 RD man. Hard to say when that will be or even who that will be? JVR might seem like the obvious option, but it just depending on what RD men become available and what the other teams want in return. What JVR, Bozak and Komo are going to want to re-up and whether any of them are open to hometown discounts?

Maybe the trading partner is more interested in stocking up with young players than a JVR. Who knows what value may be attached to a guy like Jeremy Bracco by trade deadline next year or anyone else by then. I think the Leafs are going to be patient and see how what they have fits in, but then again I could be wrong.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on July 04, 2017, 04:38:13 PM
Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau).  But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances.  He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know.  Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.

Except that's why it's probably not a great idea to compare real deals to ones that may or may not have ever been possibilities. I'd prefer Shattenkirk at 3 years, 22.5 million to Hainsey at 2/6 but that doesn't factor too much into how I look at the Hainsey deal.

These example contracts seem less plausible to me than what I was discussing. But anyway, I don't really care about how plausible it is for Williams to have signed.  I'd be more interested if you wanted to argue simply that you'd prefer Marleau and his contract on the leafs vs Williams and his contract, under the assumption you simply had your choice.


Quote
I'm not trying to repeat myself but, with all due respect, I'm not sure you do get my argument. Saying that the "risk" can be ameliorated by trading away a draft pick in the final year isn't my argument. My argument is that trading his final year contract might not "cost" anything.

Look at the Datsyuk and Pronger deals. This was the Datsyuk deal:

To Arizona: pick #16, Pavel Datsyuk

To Detroit: picks #20 and #53, Joe Vitale

Then, for Pronger:

To Arizona: Chris Pronger, Nicklaus Grossman

To Philadelphia: Sam Gagner, Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick

In both cases, the teams that traded the dead money deals gained picks. I won't necessarily go so far as to say they were assets but the teams that had them got rid of them without really sacrificing a thing.

Sure.  These are good examples.  There is still some risk until the deal has actually been made.

Quote
As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.

This is a good point.  Would Lou threaten to use that if the consensus is that Marleau is still able to score 20 goals (or Marleau thinks he can)?

The risk is not large enough for me to have nixed the signing, but I still believe it is there. I do think the leafs should "go for it" and if it causes an issue in year 3, so be it.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bullfrog on July 04, 2017, 05:36:05 PM
I'm definitely happy about this signing. I'm surprised by the value of the contract, but I'm not overly worried about it.

It's nice to be in a spot where these types of players are being signed as complementary players to the young core.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 04, 2017, 11:11:18 PM
These example contracts seem less plausible to me than what I was discussing. But anyway, I don't really care about how plausible it is for Williams to have signed.  I'd be more interested if you wanted to argue simply that you'd prefer Marleau and his contract on the leafs vs Williams and his contract, under the assumption you simply had your choice.

Right, again, I don't think comparing deals a team signed to deals they may or may not have been able to is a particularly fair avenue of criticism but never let it be said I'm not accommodating. I do prefer Marleau and his deal to Williams and his and here are the reasons why:

- Marleau is, I think, a better player. His 27 goals last year were more than Justin Williams has scored in a season since 2006-2007. Over the course of his career, he's averaged 28 goals per 82 games. This is a full 33% higher than Williams averaging 21 over 82.

- Marleau fits the Maple Leafs better and is more versatile. Marleau primarily plays left wing, as he is a left handed shot, which is the team's weakest position. Williams plays RW, the team's strongest position. Marleau also has experience at C and can fill in there at a pinch, with pretty solid face off numbers. Williams, to my knowledge, has never played C in the NHL.

- While neither guy was a regular PK contributor last year, Marleau has been as recently as 2015-2016. Williams hasn't been a regular PK contributor since 2006-2007. Marleau has twice been a top 10 Selke finisher while I can't find evidence Williams ever received a vote. If Marleau is a better defensive player, he also does it while taking significantly fewer penalties than Williams.

-  I think the financials are irrelevant for reasons we've discussed. The Leafs aren't going to be a team in desperate need of cap space in the next two years and I don't think Marleau will be here for the 3rd.

- I think your various intangibles, leadership and experience and size(which I suppose is tangible but its value isn't) favour Marleau almost universally.

Quote
Sure.  These are good examples.  There is still some risk until the deal has actually been made.

I suppose that's true in the abstract but let's keep in mind what these deals are. A dead cap hit of 6 million for a retired player is basically a way for a team like Arizona or Vegas(or whatever other team might be at the floor) to save millions of dollars.

So while I acknowledge there's a nominal risk that the deal might be hard to move if, say, no teams are in that situation I'm pretty confident that hockey in Arizona isn't going to be super profitable in two years time. In which case I'm not terribly worried about this management group's ability to give away money. If I were, I'd probably have bigger doubts about their abilities that worried me more than the potential downside of this deal.

Quote
This is a good point.  Would Lou threaten to use that if the consensus is that Marleau is still able to score 20 goals (or Marleau thinks he can)?

Well, keep in mind that I think that it's a moot point as I think the structure of this deal does everything but print PATRICK MARLEAU WILL NOT PLAY IN 2019-2020 in big bright neon letters.

I think this is a case of the Leafs using their financial means to effectively pay Patrick Marleau 8.5 million per year for two years of hockey while spreading out the cap hit at a time when the cap concerns are so small that it's one of the rare times when I can say, as I did in the pre-cap days, that it's not my money so I don't really care how the Leafs spend it because it won't have a negative impact elsewhere.

But even if I'm wrong, even if the structure of this deal doesn't reveal a single thing about its intentions, I think Lamoriello(if it's even him in charge at that time) has proven to be pretty unsentimental about these things and, quite frankly, if Marleau has degenerated to the point where he's no longer a useful enough forward to keep around then I don't even think it's all that drastic a tactic. I think any UFA knows that despite whatever deal they sign, they still have to earn their place in the lineup.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 04, 2017, 11:30:37 PM
Not a fan of the deal, too much term. Marleau is almost certain to significantly decline between now and the end of year two, let alone year three.

Something to consider that I haven't seen mentioned much; if we are not able to dump Marleau by July 1 2019 (i.e. before the majority of his last year's salary is paid), and we are in a cap crunch, we will not be able to extend Matthews and Marner ahead of free agency and they will be ripe for offer sheets. I imagine we would match almost any sheet, but it might put us in cap hell.

This could have been avoided with a shorter term. I can't get over how optimistic some people are that a 37 year-old player will match his recent performance going forward.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Rebel_1812 on July 04, 2017, 11:40:20 PM
I don't like this signing.  For that kind of money, they could have got Phaneuf back.  They needed a defenseman not another forward.

1) This doesn't prevent or preclude us from getting another defenseman.
2) If needed, we can trade JvR and/or Bozak for cap space and/or assets required.

1) Yes it does stop moves for a defenseman due to cap space.
2) JVR will put up better numbers than Marleau in each year of that contract.  Keeping JVR would be better than singing Marleau and trading JVR.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2017, 02:18:04 AM
Not a fan of the deal, too much term. Marleau is almost certain to significantly decline between now and the end of year two, let alone year three.

What is that based on? Is it a carefully considered and measured statistical knowledge of the aging patterns of hockey players? Or is it just assuming as a given that once players reach a certain age it's a long and unbroken downward slope?

Is being an effective hockey player unusual at 39? Sure, but it's also unusual at 37. Being effective at 37 is an exception and, quite frankly, I'm not sure it's any smaller of an exception than being a good player at 39 is.

Look at guys like Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Iginla, Doan, Jagr, Recchi, Shanahan, Andreychuk...HOF or near HOF level players, which Marleau is, seem like reasonable bets at being able to produce at 38 or 39 if they're still able to produce at 37.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 05, 2017, 07:49:10 AM
What is that based on? Is it a carefully considered and measured statistical knowledge of the aging patterns of hockey players?

Yes.

Is being an effective hockey player unusual at 39? Sure, but it's also unusual at 37. Being effective at 37 is an exception and, quite frankly, I'm not sure it's any smaller of an exception than being a good player at 39 is.

I think if you check the record books you'll find the average 37 year-old performs better than the average 39 year-old. I'm surprised this is in dispute. 

Look at guys like Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Iginla, Doan, Jagr, Recchi, Shanahan, Andreychuk...HOF or near HOF level players, which Marleau is, seem like reasonable bets at being able to produce at 38 or 39 if they're still able to produce at 37.

'Still able to produce' is somewhat of a truism; of course they can still skate and shoot, but I will bet you $5 that the average production of the above group at 37 was much better at 37 than at 39. I will also bet that their production at 35 was better than their production at 37.

When do you think Marleau's production will significantly decline? 40 as opposed to 39?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2017, 08:08:58 AM
Something to consider that I haven't seen mentioned much; if we are not able to dump Marleau by July 1 2019 (i.e. before the majority of his last year's salary is paid), and we are in a cap crunch, we will not be able to extend Matthews and Marner ahead of free agency and they will be ripe for offer sheets. I imagine we would match almost any sheet, but it might put us in cap hell.

Nylander and Marner become RFAs on July 1st 2019, but they become eligible to sign an extension on July 1st 2018, and that's almost certainly when it will happen, regardless of Marleau's contract. IF, and I do think it is a big if, Marleau's contract stays with us during the entire term and we can't LTIR him then the problems it will create cap wise will effect our teams bottom-6 forwards by making us go cheap on depth players. It won't create any problems for Matthews/Nylander/Marner.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 05, 2017, 09:19:26 AM
Something to consider that I haven't seen mentioned much; if we are not able to dump Marleau by July 1 2019 (i.e. before the majority of his last year's salary is paid), and we are in a cap crunch, we will not be able to extend Matthews and Marner ahead of free agency and they will be ripe for offer sheets. I imagine we would match almost any sheet, but it might put us in cap hell.

Nylander and Marner become RFAs on July 1st 2019, but they become eligible to sign an extension on July 1st 2018, and that's almost certainly when it will happen, regardless of Marleau's contract. IF, and I do think it is a big if, Marleau's contract stays with us during the entire term and we can't LTIR him then the problems it will create cap wise will effect our teams bottom-6 forwards by making us go cheap on depth players. It won't create any problems for Matthews/Nylander/Marner.

You mean Matthews and Marner right?  Nylander becomes an RFA a year earlier (next season) so they can extend him now.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2017, 09:21:43 AM
Nylander and Marner become RFAs on July 1st 2019, but they become eligible to sign an extension on July 1st 2018, and that's almost certainly when it will happen, regardless of Marleau's contract. IF, and I do think it is a big if, Marleau's contract stays with us during the entire term and we can't LTIR him then the problems it will create cap wise will effect our teams bottom-6 forwards by making us go cheap on depth players. It won't create any problems for Matthews/Nylander/Marner.

You mean Matthews and Marner right?  Nylander becomes an RFA a year earlier (next season) so they can extend him now.

Yep, thanks just mis-typed for whatever reason.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 05, 2017, 09:24:15 AM
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/07/04/leafs-ufa-review-an-inefficiently-efficient-week/

I find a lot to agree with in this take on the Leafs' off season so far.

Quote
On the Leafs’ end of things, their goal is to win hockey games, not win the best bang-for-buck award. While I’m probably one of the bigger proponents of “just get the best 20 players on the ice” you’ll find, an environment like that also has its fair share of diminishing returns; particularly when you have to change your system and play style to fit four lines and three pairs that are nothing alike.

Being realistic, you want the most talented players that fit your system, so long as your system is modern enough. Toronto’s up-tempo, slot-heavy, cycle-heavy game that seems to often involve racing between the two offensive zones and putting the puck in threatening areas is one that is likely to pay dividends, so long as your entire team can play it, and doesn’t fall apart against meaningful competition.

[...]

Well, it’s a good thing that Patrick Marleau can still flip over to centre in a pinch, can still kill penalties, can still put 20 pucks in the net, and can still fly like the kids can.

It’s a good thing that while Ron Hainsey isn’t ever going to be confused for Bobby Orr and isn’t going to drive play at a top level, he’s still floating around even on good teams while playing against all forms of compeition, and can play on both the left and right sides. Oh, and while he’s not an elite skater, he can still move a little too.

Dominic Moore’s relative shot attempt numbers were horrific, but so were his regular linemates (Riley Nash and Tim Schaller), and relative is relative to the second best possession team in the league. Yet, he was still a league above Smith, still wins those pesky Babcock-requested faceoffs, has an extra gear that Boyle simply didn’t, and can still put points on the board.

Sorry Franson.

We paid more than I wanted to, but we had LTIR cap space to use, and if it wasn't used, we could only pay off a nominal amount of the performance bonuses going forward anyway, so we might as well use it. I'm glad we stuck with players would could still skate and have a history of skilled play. I'm also glad we didn't get all those defensive defensemen that our conference rivals went for with 4M+ deals.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 05, 2017, 09:31:58 AM
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/07/04/leafs-ufa-review-an-inefficiently-efficient-week/

I find a lot to agree with in this take on the Leafs' off season so far.

Quote
On the Leafs’ end of things, their goal is to win hockey games, not win the best bang-for-buck award. While I’m probably one of the bigger proponents of “just get the best 20 players on the ice” you’ll find, an environment like that also has its fair share of diminishing returns; particularly when you have to change your system and play style to fit four lines and three pairs that are nothing alike.

Being realistic, you want the most talented players that fit your system, so long as your system is modern enough. Toronto’s up-tempo, slot-heavy, cycle-heavy game that seems to often involve racing between the two offensive zones and putting the puck in threatening areas is one that is likely to pay dividends, so long as your entire team can play it, and doesn’t fall apart against meaningful competition.

[...]

Well, it’s a good thing that Patrick Marleau can still flip over to centre in a pinch, can still kill penalties, can still put 20 pucks in the net, and can still fly like the kids can.

It’s a good thing that while Ron Hainsey isn’t ever going to be confused for Bobby Orr and isn’t going to drive play at a top level, he’s still floating around even on good teams while playing against all forms of compeition, and can play on both the left and right sides. Oh, and while he’s not an elite skater, he can still move a little too.

Dominic Moore’s relative shot attempt numbers were horrific, but so were his regular linemates (Riley Nash and Tim Schaller), and relative is relative to the second best possession team in the league. Yet, he was still a league above Smith, still wins those pesky Babcock-requested faceoffs, has an extra gear that Boyle simply didn’t, and can still put points on the board.

Sorry Franson.

We paid more than I wanted to, but we had LTIR cap space to use, and if it wasn't used, we could only pay off a nominal amount of the performance bonuses going forward anyway, so we might as well use it. I'm glad we stuck with players would could still skate and have a history of skilled play. I'm also glad we didn't get all those defensive defensemen that our conference rivals went for with 4M+ deals.

That's the common thing I've seen through the Leafs signings for far, all the guys they got can still skate well and play with some hustle.  I always liked Moore, I think he's a perfect 4th line guy cause he gives you honest minutes, is always hard after the puck and is still pretty quick. Marleau has always been a good skater, and Hainsey can get around as well.  Look forward to seeing how this team competes in the fall.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bullfrog on July 05, 2017, 10:03:52 AM
Is being an effective hockey player unusual at 39? Sure, but it's also unusual at 37. Being effective at 37 is an exception and, quite frankly, I'm not sure it's any smaller of an exception than being a good player at 39 is.

I think if you check the record books you'll find the average 37 year-old performs better than the average 39 year-old. I'm surprised this is in dispute. 

Look at guys like Nieuwendyk, Roberts, Iginla, Doan, Jagr, Recchi, Shanahan, Andreychuk...HOF or near HOF level players, which Marleau is, seem like reasonable bets at being able to produce at 38 or 39 if they're still able to produce at 37.

'Still able to produce' is somewhat of a truism; of course they can still skate and shoot, but I will bet you $5 that the average production of the above group at 37 was much better at 37 than at 39. I will also bet that their production at 35 was better than their production at 37.

When do you think Marleau's production will significantly decline? 40 as opposed to 39?

Challenge: accepted!

Performance at Various Ages
Age3739
PlayerPointsGamesPoints/GamePointsGamesPoints/Game
Roberts48720.6640580.69
Nieuwendyk50640.7856650.86
Doan47690.6847720.65
Jagr4251 (KHL)0.8254
35 (age 41)
73
45 (age 41)
0.74
0.78 (age 41)
Recchi64830.7748720.67
Shanahan62670.9214340.41
Andreychuk33740.4534720.47

The only person on that list that had markedly better production at 37 was Shanahan, but his 0.92 ppg is a bit of an anomaly. I guess you're out $5.

But to the point, your claim was for the average player. In that case, you're more likely to be correct because the average player is out of the league before 39. Marleau is still considered one of the better skaters in the league, so I don't foresee his production dropping off a cliff unless he gets injured. That could happen to a younger player too.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 05, 2017, 10:10:10 AM
Not a huge fan of picking up players that old, but if they're that age and still trucking at that pace in this soul-sucking league, they've gotta be doing something fantastically right (and possibly fanatically so). That's some extra semi-intangible value, right there. It's not a huge concern for our kids yet (go metabolism!), but I think that message comes across stronger from vets who've done the grind, than nutritionists hired by the team.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2017, 10:26:01 AM
Yes.

Seems unlikely. Usually people with facts tend to bring them to the party, not ask if they can borrow some.

Quote
When do you think Marleau's production will significantly decline? 40 as opposed to 39?

That seems like a safer assumption. Like I said though, I don't think there's such thing as a "typical" player in the NHL who's productive at 37 so I wouldn't say anything definitively.

Regardless I sort of reject the initial premise. I don't think the positive reaction to this deal is based on the idea that Marleau is, through the life of the deal, the exact same player he was last year. Rather that for the length of the deal that he's probably going to actually play for he stays a productive player. As I said and as the frogman indicated, I think the odds of that are fairly good when you look at the history of players like him.

Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2017, 10:44:59 AM
I'm predicting it now: as long as Marleau isn't used in a shutdown role (i.e. plays with either Matthews or Bozak instead of Kadri) he'll put up more points than he did last season. His high shooting percentage likely goes back to his career norm but that'll be more than balanced out by the fact that he'll earn a lot more assists.

Getting ice-time with a guy like Thornton this season likely helped boost his goal totals but they also crushed his assist numbers. If I remember correctly Thornton only scored like 3 or 4 goals on an actual goalie this past season. And he also played a lot with guys like Joel Ward and Michael Boedker, neither of whom are known for putting the puck in the net. I think you can definitely make the case that Marleau's quality of teammates might actually go up this season. He's also going from the 25th ranked PP last season to the 2nd best one.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 05, 2017, 11:23:51 AM
I'm predicting it now: as long as Marleau isn't used in a shutdown role (i.e. plays with either Matthews or Bozak instead of Kadri) he'll put up more points than he did last season. His high shooting percentage likely goes back to his career norm but that'll be more than balanced out by the fact that he'll earn a lot more assists.

Getting ice-time with a guy like Thornton this season likely helped boost his goal totals but they also crushed his assist numbers. If I remember correctly Thornton only scored like 3 or 4 goals on an actual goalie this past season. And he also played a lot with guys like Joel Ward and Michael Boedker, neither of whom are known for putting the puck in the net. I think you can definitely make the case that Marleau's quality of teammates might actually go up this season. He's also going from the 25th ranked PP last season to the 2nd best one.

I'll second that. Matthews/Nylander or Marner/Bozak. That's some high skill right there. If he plays on Auston's left he get's at least the ten goals Hyman should have buried.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Frank E on July 05, 2017, 11:33:04 AM
I'm predicting it now: as long as Marleau isn't used in a shutdown role (i.e. plays with either Matthews or Bozak instead of Kadri) he'll put up more points than he did last season. His high shooting percentage likely goes back to his career norm but that'll be more than balanced out by the fact that he'll earn a lot more assists.

Getting ice-time with a guy like Thornton this season likely helped boost his goal totals but they also crushed his assist numbers. If I remember correctly Thornton only scored like 3 or 4 goals on an actual goalie this past season. And he also played a lot with guys like Joel Ward and Michael Boedker, neither of whom are known for putting the puck in the net. I think you can definitely make the case that Marleau's quality of teammates might actually go up this season. He's also going from the 25th ranked PP last season to the 2nd best one.

Has there been a forward like Thornton who came off of scoring 7 goals signing for anywhere near $8m, ever.

Don't get me wrong, he's a helluva player, but that $ per goal ratio has got to be a record.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 05, 2017, 11:47:16 AM
Has there been a forward like Thornton who came off of scoring 7 goals signing for anywhere near $8m, ever.

Don't get me wrong, he's a helluva player, but that $ per goal ratio has got to be a record.

Yeah, that's probably a safe assumption. The only other time in the past 10 seasons that a forward has scored less than 10 goals but 50 or more points was in 2015-16 when Mike Ribeiro did it.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 05, 2017, 12:00:57 PM
Has there been a forward like Thornton who came off of scoring 7 goals signing for anywhere near $8m, ever.

Don't get me wrong, he's a helluva player, but that $ per goal ratio has got to be a record.

Yeah, that's probably a safe assumption. The only other time in the past 10 seasons that a forward has scored less than 10 goals but 50 or more points was in 2015-16 when Mike Ribeiro did it.

Joe Thornton is listed as having taken 146 (!!!) attempts at the net in 1429 min of ice time last season, to the tune of 6.13 per 60 min, which translated to 82 shots on goal in 79 games -- just over 1 SoG per game. | link (http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201617&sit=all&pos=forwards&minutes=1250&teamid=0&type=individual&sort=icorsi60&sortdir=ASC)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 05, 2017, 09:55:48 PM

Seems unlikely. Usually people with facts tend to bring them to the party, not ask if they can borrow some.

Your petulance speaks volumes.



That seems like a safer assumption. Like I said though, I don't think there's such thing as a "typical" player in the NHL who's productive at 37 so I wouldn't say anything definitively.

Regardless I sort of reject the initial premise. I don't think the positive reaction to this deal is based on the idea that Marleau is, through the life of the deal, the exact same player he was last year.

I reject your characterization of my premise. I was surprised at people who thought his recent production (about 47 points per year) would be representative of his production during the contract.


Rather that for the length of the deal that he's probably going to actually play for he stays a productive player.


Ah, the old unassailably vague assertion. I suspect 'productive' will mean whatever you want it to mean at a later date. This is not a point of view, this is a tactic. Conversation doesn't need to have a winner.


Long story short, I think that based on the normal decline for human athletes between 37 and 39, Marleau is likely to decline between now and the second year of his deal. I think the third year is risky and may cost us will cost us, whether it be a pick to move him or a undeserved spot on the roster. The Datsyuk deal has been referenced, but let's not forget the hockey world was stunned by the return Holland received. Teams like Arizona don't need to overpay in a trade to reach the cap floor, they can just overpay a free agent instead. Marleau's NMC means we won't be able to put him in the minors even if he's unplayable.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 05, 2017, 10:13:44 PM

Challenge: accepted!

Performance at Various Ages
Age3739
PlayerPointsGamesPoints/GamePointsGamesPoints/Game
Roberts48720.6640580.69
Nieuwendyk50640.7856650.86
Doan47690.6847720.65
Jagr4251 (KHL)0.8254
35 (age 41)
73
45 (age 41)
0.74
0.78 (age 41)
Recchi64830.7748720.67
Shanahan62670.9214340.41
Andreychuk33740.4534720.47

The only person on that list that had markedly better production at 37 was Shanahan, but his 0.92 ppg is a bit of an anomaly. I guess you're out $5.

Well played for putting this together, thanks.

The ppg is meaningful, but I suspect that the significantly reduced amount of games these all-time greats played is not a coincidence. Given the impact of age on physical health, I find the total points scored between the age groups, 346 vs 293, to be representative of what you can expect from other players who age similarly. In fact, given the level of hockey talent this group had, I think most other players, including ones as good as Marleau, will be lucky to decline as slowly.


But to the point, your claim was for the average player. In that case, you're more likely to be correct because the average player is out of the league before 39. Marleau is still considered one of the better skaters in the league, so I don't foresee his production dropping off a cliff unless he gets injured. That could happen to a younger player too.


He certainly is one of the fastest, but I personally find that speed is one of those abilities which declines steeply when it finally starts to go. Unlike Marleau, most of the best older players I recall (Lemieux, Orr, Jagr, Macinnis, Chelios) didn't rely on speed. For the record I will be cheering for every goal he scores and want to be proved wrong.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2017, 10:14:37 PM
Your petulance speaks volumes.

Hey, the moment you want to bring actual facts to the discussion the way Bullfrog did I'm all ears.

Quote

Ah, the old unassailably vague assertion.

Sure, much like "this signing was good" or "this player is bad" are vague assertions without defined statistical parameters. Most people seem relatively capable of powering through such vagaries though.

Quote
The Datsyuk deal has been referenced, but let's not forget the hockey world was stunned by the return Holland received. Teams like Arizona don't need to overpay in a trade to reach the cap floor, they can just overpay a free agent instead.

No, the hockey world wasn't "stunned"(a vague term that I'm sure will mean whatever you want it to mean in your next post) by that deal because the hockey world generally understood what you don't seem to about those deals. Overpaying a free agent isn't a solution for a team like Arizona because that involves actually paying the player the sum of their cap hit. Acquiring deals like the Datsyuk deal allows them to reach the cap floor without actually spending real money.

Acquiring deals like this is a way for those teams to save money. Overspending on free agents doesn't do that. That's why these dead money deals have value.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2017, 10:30:24 PM
He certainly is one of the fastest, but I personally find that speed is one of those abilities which declines steeply when it finally starts to go. Unlike Marleau, most of the best older players I recall (Lemieux, Orr, Jagr, Macinnis, Chelios) didn't rely on speed. For the record I will be cheering for every goal he scores and want to be proved wrong.

Selanne, Gartner, Coffey, Niedermayer...

And which Orr is this referring to? Because Bobby was effectively finished at 28.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2017, 09:13:26 AM
He certainly is one of the fastest, but I personally find that speed is one of those abilities which declines steeply when it finally starts to go. Unlike Marleau, most of the best older players I recall (Lemieux, Orr, Jagr, Macinnis, Chelios) didn't rely on speed. For the record I will be cheering for every goal he scores and want to be proved wrong.

Selanne, Gartner, Coffey, Niedermayer...

And which Orr is this referring to? Because Bobby was effectively finished at 28.

Niedermayer retired at 36.  Not a good example.... the rest are fine though; and Orr's name being mentioned made me laugh out loud a little too loudly for the office.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Bender on July 06, 2017, 09:15:53 AM
He certainly is one of the fastest, but I personally find that speed is one of those abilities which declines steeply when it finally starts to go. Unlike Marleau, most of the best older players I recall (Lemieux, Orr, Jagr, Macinnis, Chelios) didn't rely on speed. For the record I will be cheering for every goal he scores and want to be proved wrong.

Selanne, Gartner, Coffey, Niedermayer...

And which Orr is this referring to? Because Bobby was effectively finished at 28.

I'd also argue the game has changed since  a lot of those slower players retired. You could get away with being Darian Hatcher before, not anymore.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 06, 2017, 12:18:18 PM

Hey, the moment you want to bring actual facts to the discussion the way Bullfrog did I'm all ears.


You belittle yourself with this tone. Athletes notably decline in their late 30's, if you don't agree with this established fact that's fine.
 


Sure, much like "this signing was good" or "this player is bad" are vague assertions without defined statistical parameters. Most people seem relatively capable of powering through such vagaries though.


The thing is, your vagaries seem less like genuine expressions of belief and more like calculated strategies.  You rarely commit to a point of view while simultaneously demanding specifics from others, all in the name of oneupsmanship. It can be exhausting to read.


No, the hockey world wasn't "stunned"

https://www.nhl.com/news/red-wings-gm-holland-pulls-off-magical-datsyuk-trade/c-281048512

Semantics?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Gilmour the Great on July 06, 2017, 12:20:36 PM

Niedermayer retired at 36.  Not a good example.... the rest are fine though; and Orr's name being mentioned made me laugh out loud a little too loudly for the office.

Yeah my bad. Based on footage Orr had an old-man game near the end. My point is that smart players usually hold up better than athletic specimens, which makes future reliance on Marleau's speed risky.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 06, 2017, 12:47:50 PM

Niedermayer retired at 36.  Not a good example.... the rest are fine though; and Orr's name being mentioned made me laugh out loud a little too loudly for the office.

Yeah my bad. Based on footage Orr had an old-man game near the end. My point is that smart players usually hold up better than athletic specimens, which makes future reliance on Marleau's speed risky.

I think you are underestimating Marleau's smarts here then.  As much as his speed stands out, the guy scores lots of goals because he knows where to be in the offensive zone to capitalize- whether its tap ins, rebounds, slot shots etc.   He didn't get to over 500 career goals only on his speed.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 06, 2017, 01:21:49 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/07/04/lou-lamoriello-toronto-maple-leafs-offseason-additions-want-reassure-everybody-core-young-players/

Quote
Let’s talk a little bit about this deal. Obviously, you went after him. I assume this was not entirely a Lou Lamoriello initiative, and that you had conversations with your cohorts there at MLSE. Was there a consensus that this was a guy that you felt you wanted to get?

Lamoriello: I feel very comfortable answering that. It was a unanimous consensus on the player. He had a lot of teams that were interested in him for a lot of different reasons.

First of all, the player he is and the way he plays, and what his abilities are, and also the type of individual he is — that played a role into the decision. With the young players, we saw them last year and what they did and what they’re capable of doing, but they need the education, the professionalism and the support staff to help them grow in every way.

When you’re able to get a player like Patrick Marleau who, in our opinion, still has a lot of hockey left… put age aside, his skating abilities are what makes it very, very attractive. He’s an elite skater. Skaters who sort of labour in the latter part of the career, they have a difficult time. And with the way he is taking care of himself throughout his whole career, he’s played just about every game he could play, including the whole season the last three years.

Yes, there is always a risk in any decision that you make, but with where the team is at, what he can bring to the players that we have and the education process, it was really a [unanimous] decision. It was unanimous amongst our whole group with what he can do. Yes, it’s a pricey contract. We feel that this is probably the only time in the careers of the young players that we have that we could take this type of a chance. When I say chance — getting a player like this to help, not only on the ice but off the ice and in the locker room, with the growth. You can’t emphasize enough how important that is.

I know it's appealing to authority, but it's so relieving to know that Dubas signed off on this too.

Unless he didn't because he wasn't included in the discussion *hyperventilates
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on July 06, 2017, 01:34:27 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/07/04/lou-lamoriello-toronto-maple-leafs-offseason-additions-want-reassure-everybody-core-young-players/

Quote
Let’s talk a little bit about this deal. Obviously, you went after him. I assume this was not entirely a Lou Lamoriello initiative, and that you had conversations with your cohorts there at MLSE. Was there a consensus that this was a guy that you felt you wanted to get?

Lamoriello: I feel very comfortable answering that. It was a unanimous consensus on the player. He had a lot of teams that were interested in him for a lot of different reasons.

First of all, the player he is and the way he plays, and what his abilities are, and also the type of individual he is — that played a role into the decision. With the young players, we saw them last year and what they did and what they’re capable of doing, but they need the education, the professionalism and the support staff to help them grow in every way.

When you’re able to get a player like Patrick Marleau who, in our opinion, still has a lot of hockey left… put age aside, his skating abilities are what makes it very, very attractive. He’s an elite skater. Skaters who sort of labour in the latter part of the career, they have a difficult time. And with the way he is taking care of himself throughout his whole career, he’s played just about every game he could play, including the whole season the last three years.

Yes, there is always a risk in any decision that you make, but with where the team is at, what he can bring to the players that we have and the education process, it was really a [unanimous] decision. It was unanimous amongst our whole group with what he can do. Yes, it’s a pricey contract. We feel that this is probably the only time in the careers of the young players that we have that we could take this type of a chance. When I say chance — getting a player like this to help, not only on the ice but off the ice and in the locker room, with the growth. You can’t emphasize enough how important that is.

I know it's appealing to authority, but it's so relieving to know that Dubas signed off on this too.

Unless he didn't because he wasn't included in the discussion *hyperventilates

"It was a unanimous consensus on the player." says Lamoriello "myself, Brendan, Mark, we all loved him"
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: slapshot on July 06, 2017, 02:07:48 PM
These example contracts seem less plausible to me than what I was discussing. But anyway, I don't really care about how plausible it is for Williams to have signed.  I'd be more interested if you wanted to argue simply that you'd prefer Marleau and his contract on the leafs vs Williams and his contract, under the assumption you simply had your choice.

Right, again, I don't think comparing deals a team signed to deals they may or may not have been able to is a particularly fair avenue of criticism but never let it be said I'm not accommodating. I do prefer Marleau and his deal to Williams and his and here are the reasons why:

- Marleau is, I think, a better player. His 27 goals last year were more than Justin Williams has scored in a season since 2006-2007. Over the course of his career, he's averaged 28 goals per 82 games. This is a full 33% higher than Williams averaging 21 over 82.

- Marleau fits the Maple Leafs better and is more versatile. Marleau primarily plays left wing, as he is a left handed shot, which is the team's weakest position. Williams plays RW, the team's strongest position. Marleau also has experience at C and can fill in there at a pinch, with pretty solid face off numbers. Williams, to my knowledge, has never played C in the NHL.

- While neither guy was a regular PK contributor last year, Marleau has been as recently as 2015-2016. Williams hasn't been a regular PK contributor since 2006-2007. Marleau has twice been a top 10 Selke finisher while I can't find evidence Williams ever received a vote. If Marleau is a better defensive player, he also does it while taking significantly fewer penalties than Williams.

-  I think the financials are irrelevant for reasons we've discussed. The Leafs aren't going to be a team in desperate need of cap space in the next two years and I don't think Marleau will be here for the 3rd.

- I think your various intangibles, leadership and experience and size(which I suppose is tangible but its value isn't) favour Marleau almost universally.

Quote
Sure.  These are good examples.  There is still some risk until the deal has actually been made.

I suppose that's true in the abstract but let's keep in mind what these deals are. A dead cap hit of 6 million for a retired player is basically a way for a team like Arizona or Vegas(or whatever other team might be at the floor) to save millions of dollars.

So while I acknowledge there's a nominal risk that the deal might be hard to move if, say, no teams are in that situation I'm pretty confident that hockey in Arizona isn't going to be super profitable in two years time. In which case I'm not terribly worried about this management group's ability to give away money. If I were, I'd probably have bigger doubts about their abilities that worried me more than the potential downside of this deal.

Quote
This is a good point.  Would Lou threaten to use that if the consensus is that Marleau is still able to score 20 goals (or Marleau thinks he can)?

Well, keep in mind that I think that it's a moot point as I think the structure of this deal does everything but print PATRICK MARLEAU WILL NOT PLAY IN 2019-2020 in big bright neon letters.

I think this is a case of the Leafs using their financial means to effectively pay Patrick Marleau 8.5 million per year for two years of hockey while spreading out the cap hit at a time when the cap concerns are so small that it's one of the rare times when I can say, as I did in the pre-cap days, that it's not my money so I don't really care how the Leafs spend it because it won't have a negative impact elsewhere.

But even if I'm wrong, even if the structure of this deal doesn't reveal a single thing about its intentions, I think Lamoriello(if it's even him in charge at that time) has proven to be pretty unsentimental about these things and, quite frankly, if Marleau has degenerated to the point where he's no longer a useful enough forward to keep around then I don't even think it's all that drastic a tactic. I think any UFA knows that despite whatever deal they sign, they still have to earn their place in the lineup.

I would tend to agree with your assessment Nick. I think we still get two decent years out of Marleau and he's not around for the third. I don't think this deal is so much about either Marleau or JVR about getting more first class leadership in the dressing from someone who actually has a great skill set as well. JVR probably has more in the offensive tank simply because he's younger, but I've never seen him as a particularly effective defensive player, and occasionally quite the opposite. With Marleau your getting a guy with a lot of skill but that also pays attention to the fine details of the 200-foot game. I think Babcock also really likes his demeanor, so I think the Leafs are weigh a part of the price they paid, not only to what Marleau brings on the ice, but to the dressing room in general, and because they could afford to.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 06, 2017, 02:43:51 PM
I know it's appealing to authority, but it's so relieving to know that Dubas signed off on this too.

Unless he didn't because he wasn't included in the discussion *hyperventilates

Not that it matters a great deal but the idea of an appeal to authority as a logical fallacy really only applies when you're talking about a level of authority granting a certain omnipotence rather than, say, a specific area of expertise.

"He's the President, so he probably knows what he's doing when it comes to science" is, for instance, a fallacious appeal to authority. "He's the head of the Physics department at CalTech, so he probably knows what he's talking about when it comes to physics" isn't.

So I don't think "he's a GM, so he knows a lot about hockey, so his making this move is good evidence that it will be a successful one" is an appeal to authority so much as it just is a general falsehood.

I'd probably be more concerned with the fact that you think that if there was dissension regarding this move, Lamoriello would say so.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on July 06, 2017, 03:00:29 PM
I'd probably be more concerned with the fact that you think that if there was dissension regarding this move, Lamoriello would say so.

There are greater things to be concerned about me. I just spent the day defending Hyman's value.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 06, 2017, 04:24:05 PM
"It was a unanimous consensus on the player." says Lamoriello "myself, Brendan, Mark, we all loved him"

:D
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Guru Tugginmypuddah on July 06, 2017, 04:31:47 PM
"It was a unanimous consensus on the player." says Lamoriello "myself, Brendan, Mark, we all loved him"

:D

3 years is a long time.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 07, 2017, 08:20:11 PM
I think it's noteworthy that a guy drafted second overall 20 years ago is willing to leave the only team he's ever known and move across the continent with his wife and four kids to begin again at age 37. I heard that the Leafs went after him the moment free-agency began. They probably weren't the only club willing to give that third year. A sweetheart deal sure, but still a huge move for a guy nearing the end of his career. I think it speaks to the way Toronto is being perceived now. There's not only a real opportunity to win here now and play with skilled players, but the club seems competently run from the top down.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 07, 2017, 10:52:40 PM
Someone should tap Lou and the shoulder and whisper in his ear that "a unanimous consensus" is self-contradictory.

Yeah, I get that nobody's paying him for his grammar. But I bet Dubas wouldn't have said that.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on July 28, 2017, 04:17:57 PM

Welcome to the 6ix Patrick.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: freer on July 28, 2017, 10:17:26 PM

Welcome to the 6ix Patrick.

That is awesome!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 28, 2017, 10:19:37 PM

It's fun that some of his kids got the eyebrow gene and some missed it.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Big Daddy on July 28, 2017, 10:53:57 PM
Why is he wearing Connor Brown number in this picture
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on July 29, 2017, 12:14:08 AM

It's fun that some of his kids got the eyebrow gene and some missed it.

But every one of them has two-toned hair.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 29, 2017, 12:15:15 AM

It's fun that some of his kids got the eyebrow gene and some missed it.

But every one of them has two-toned hair.

I typically figure that's true of all Californians.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Frank E on July 29, 2017, 10:11:27 AM
Kids look super pumped to be moving from SoCal to Ontario.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 29, 2017, 10:15:18 AM
Why's he holding Marner like that?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 11:10:24 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/08/03/patrick-marleau-group-guys-im-extremely-excited-making-long-playoff-run/

Because we're literally grasping at straws for content:
Marleau wears 12, and Connor Brown knows it. They haven't gone into negotiations yet, at the time of this interview, but I hope Brown gets a nice watch or something fun out of it.

Newmeros:
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Coco-puffs on August 04, 2017, 12:48:50 PM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/08/03/patrick-marleau-group-guys-im-extremely-excited-making-long-playoff-run/

Because we're literally grasping at straws for content:
Marleau wears 12, and Connor Brown knows it. They haven't gone into negotiations yet, at the time of this interview, but I hope Brown gets a nice watch or something fun out of it.

Newmeros:
  • Marleau taking 12 is a foregone conclusion
  • Brown (if/when he is signed) takes 28
  • Kapanen (if he makes the team out of camp) used to wear 42 in Liiga, but since Bozak is still there (maybe), he'll likely take the vacated 24.
  • If Calle Rosen makes the team out of camp, his usual 39 is available.
  • If Travis Dermott makes the team, he's not getting his junior 44 from Rielly, and he's not getting his Marlies 8 from Carrick, so I'm going to suggest he take 23, which is 2^3 = 8 (or 4+4) because we know he's totally all about that sort of thing.

Dominic Moore has worn 28 in a lot of places.  I think he takes that number.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 12:56:51 PM
Dominic Moore has worn 28 in a lot of places.  I think he takes that number.

I truly forgot about him. He wore 19 when he was last a Leaf. If Kapanen is smart, he will auction 28 off to the best offer.

I'm a bit surprised Kadri hasn't gone to 19, but maybe it's because he's now super committed to his social media handles (and being Matthews' complement).
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 04, 2017, 01:03:00 PM
I'm a bit surprised Kadri hasn't gone to 19, but maybe it's because he's now super committed to his social media handles (and being Matthews' complement).

Sometime after his first year he said something about wanting to make #43 HIS number, which seems like a very Kadri-thing to do.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: louisstamos on August 04, 2017, 01:22:23 PM
I think Lupul is *technically* still on the roster, and thus, still has the rights to #19. :P
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 02:21:18 PM
Sometime after his first year he said something about wanting to make #43 HIS number, which seems like a very Kadri-thing to do.

That's a weird hill to stake a claim on, but I'm down with that.

I think Lupul is *technically* still on the roster, and thus, still has the rights to #19. :P

Make that yet another player I've forgotten.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Frank E on August 04, 2017, 02:24:13 PM
This is a very "summer" conversation going on here...
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 04, 2017, 02:25:01 PM
This is a very "summer" conversation going on here...

 8) dive in, buddy.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 05, 2017, 06:18:19 AM

Welcome to the 6ix Patrick.

That is awesome!


Very nice.  Those Leaf jerseys sure look good on them.  :)

Way to go, Patrick!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Fletch on August 06, 2017, 01:44:48 PM

Welcome to the 6ix Patrick.

That is awesome!


Very nice.  Those Leaf jerseys sure look good on them.  :)

Way to go, Patrick!

Does anyone know the story behind the different number on the one kid's jersey?

It is, or starts with, 9.  It could be a Gilmour jersey, but he's too young to have seen Dougie play.  I doubt it's a Charlie Conacher jersey.  Glenn Anderson? 

Was it just his jersey number?  That's the likely answer.  I just find it odd that he isn't wearing dad's number like the rest of the family.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 23, 2017, 11:04:26 AM
https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/08/03/patrick-marleau-group-guys-im-extremely-excited-making-long-playoff-run/

Because we're literally grasping at straws for content:
Marleau wears 12, and Connor Brown knows it. They haven't gone into negotiations yet, at the time of this interview, but I hope Brown gets a nice watch or something fun out of it.

Newmeros:
  • Marleau taking 12 is a foregone conclusion
  • Brown (if/when he is signed) takes 28
  • Kapanen (if he makes the team out of camp) used to wear 42 in Liiga, but since Bozak is still there (maybe), he'll likely take the vacated 24.
  • If Calle Rosen makes the team out of camp, his usual 39 is available.
  • If Travis Dermott makes the team, he's not getting his junior 44 from Rielly, and he's not getting his Marlies 8 from Carrick, so I'm going to suggest he take 23, which is 2^3 = 8 (or 4+4) because we know he's totally all about that sort of thing.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/08/22/the-kids-are-still-alright-says-leafs-gm-lamoriello.html

Quote
Lamoriello said he was happy that Connor Brown would surrender No. 12 to Marleau while taking on No. 28, Brown’s number from his junior days in Erie. Kasperi Kapanen, who had No. 28, will take No. 24 if he makes the Leafs, the same number his father, Sami, wore during his 13 seasons in the NHL. Brian Boyle wore 24 last for the Leafs.

Pow!

Also this load of BS:
Quote
“We have a group of talented individuals,” he said. “Our training camp will be very competitive because we have depth. Depth creates competition. The best players will play. The best team players will play. No matter how talented you are, success doesn’t come from individual play, it comes from the group.”
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 23, 2017, 01:52:50 PM

Also this load of BS:
Quote
“We have a group of talented individuals,” he said. “Our training camp will be very competitive because we have depth. Depth creates competition. The best players will play. The best team players will play. No matter how talented you are, success doesn’t come from individual play, it comes from the group.”

I beg to differ. What we have here is a man of his word.  If Matthews shows up out of shape to camp, I have no doubt that Mr. Lamoriello will simply waive his sun-bronzed ass.  MESSAGE SENT!  "It's not about the name on the back of the sweater; it's about the worldwide trusted brand on the front."
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on August 23, 2017, 02:43:38 PM
Nah man, that was a shot at Martin.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on August 23, 2017, 11:40:39 PM

Also this load of BS:
Quote
“We have a group of talented individuals,” he said. “Our training camp will be very competitive because we have depth. Depth creates competition. The best players will play. The best team players will play. No matter how talented you are, success doesn’t come from individual play, it comes from the group.”

I beg to differ. What we have here is a man of his word.  If Matthews shows up out of shape to camp, I have no doubt that Mr. Lamoriello will simply waive his sun-bronzed ass.  MESSAGE SENT!  "It's not about the name on the back of the sweater; it's about the worldwide trusted brand on the front."

I see your point but I'm not sure that's the best example.  An out-of-shape Matthews with a broken leg would still be one of the best 4 centers at camp.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on August 30, 2017, 07:05:20 PM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 31, 2017, 02:38:10 AM


Welcome to Toronto, Mr. Marleau!

We Leafs fans can hardly wait!  :)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on September 06, 2017, 11:10:53 AM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on September 06, 2017, 01:46:50 PM

He didn't do much on that shift.  >:(
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Arn on September 06, 2017, 05:13:38 PM

He didn't do much on that shift.  >:(

Bust!
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Frank E on September 06, 2017, 05:43:20 PM
I'm not even sure which one was Marleau, but if it was the guy that just stepped on the ice, then I think he was pretty late getting on the ice...like they had to wait for him to have the huddle.

That's not the work ethic I was sold for $6.25m.  If this clown thinks that everyone is just going to skate around and wait for him, then he'd better look forward to bus rides with the Marlies with Eric fk'n Fehr and Swedish defensemen.

Let's see what his kids' not-smiley pictures look like on instagram with their Dad skating around the Ricoh at practice with Dubas smoking butts in the stands, coughing and yelling "I TRIED TO TELL THEM...NO ONE LISTENS TO ME!!!..."
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on September 06, 2017, 06:30:09 PM

I'm feeling eventually it'll be Matthews with the 'C', Reilly with an 'A' and either Naz or Mitch with the other 'A'.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 07, 2017, 08:07:40 AM

I'm feeling eventually it'll be Matthews with the 'C', Reilly with an 'A' and either Naz or Mitch with the other 'A'.


Hmm. Not so sure.  I envision it as Reilly with the "c", Matthews and Kadri with the "A".  Why?  Reilly being a young 'vet' -- young but experienced -- and Matthews and Kadri for the characteristics they bring with them.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on September 14, 2017, 01:34:47 PM
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: Zee on September 14, 2017, 01:54:59 PM
At the very least, Marleau's name fits in perfectly if you want to re-do the lyrics to Mr. Crowley from Ozzy.  Mr. Marleau......what went on in your head?
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: princedpw on September 14, 2017, 02:32:48 PM
The more I look at the leafs lineups, the more I seem to sour on this signing because of the opportunity cost -- if a defensive upgrade did become available, it may be hard to fit him in.  The advanced stats seem to say Marleau is roughly a 3rd liner or a tweener 2-3 and that his defense has declined substantially.  What the team loses by playing a Leivo/Kapanen in Marleau's place isn't quite enough to make up for that opportunity cost. 

On the other hand, if 2 of Bozak, Kadri, Matthews get injured simultaneously midseason, I'm sure I'll change my tune.

So, yeah, another wishy-washy post from me.  :-)
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on September 14, 2017, 02:59:51 PM
If you're talking opportunity cost to the signing because Marleau is clogging up the roster, I have a different player to refer you to, if you're interested.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: bustaheims on September 14, 2017, 04:04:51 PM
If the kind of defensive upgrade you're hoping for becomes available, a decent sized forward contract will be heading the other way, and the cap concerns past this season aren't overly significant at this point.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: disco on September 15, 2017, 03:21:26 PM
It's not clogging, left winger depth before Marleau was JVR/Komorov/Hyman/Whomever. Patty's here to bury the goals on Auston's left.  And he's not a defensive liability, a big Babcock plus. I love Hyman as a digger/passer but he doesn't convert. The log-jam is on the right, Kappy and Sosh probably start the season with the Marlies. Injuries will come, and then the playoffs where everyone is DESPERATE for depth.
Title: Re: Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]
Post by: herman on October 10, 2017, 09:39:00 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/leafs-patrick-marleau-sticks-dated-two-piece-stick/

No game tonight. So time for some local news type articles!

And to add to the fun:
Eberle, Gardiner, and Rielly trying a wood stick:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeF6kvbKDeY

Ryan Smyth explaining why he uses a two-piece, and how he sets his curves:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSIEreCoB7A