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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => General Rumours & Speculation => Topic started by: Frank E on June 28, 2017, 05:59:18 PM

Title: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on June 28, 2017, 05:59:18 PM
Thought it to be about time we started a thread for this coming season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: hockeyfan1 on June 29, 2017, 09:07:01 AM
Should the Leafs pursue UFA Justin Williams?  For cap space, short-term.  Has what Babcock covets in terms of leadership and experience, can still produce and would be a possible replacement for Boyle


https://editorinleaf.com/2017/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-justin-williams/ (https://editorinleaf.com/2017/06/28/toronto-maple-leafs-justin-williams/)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on June 29, 2017, 10:05:46 AM
Should the Leafs pursue UFA Justin Williams?  For cap space, short-term.  Has what Babcock covets in terms of leadership and experience, can still produce and would be a possible replacement for Boyle

Not sure how a top 6 winger is a replacement for a 3rd/4th line centre...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on June 29, 2017, 10:13:33 AM
As mentioned earlier, sign both Marleau and Thorton for 2 years before the kids get signed. Flip JVR/Bozak/picks for best available D. Win now! If it doesn't work out we have not jeopardized not signing the kids.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 10:36:38 AM
Trade JVR and Marchenko or Fehr to Florida for Demers, McCann, 2nd rounder.

Trade Bozak and Marchenko or Fehr to Colorado for whatever those dummies will give you.

Sign Keith Kinkaid. With this roster we'll need a fairly budget-conscious back-up unfortunately. Maybe even just bring back McBackup for a year.

Flex your RFA-negotiation muscles and get Brown and Hyman signed for a combined $4mil at the most.

Sign Thornton for 2 years at $6mil and Marleau for 2 years at $5mil. Limited NTCs.

Marleau-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Hyman-Thornton-Nylander
Martin-McCann-Kapanen
Soshnikov-Leivo

Rielly-Demers
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott/Swede-Carrick
Marincin

Andersen
Kinkaid
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on June 29, 2017, 10:42:14 AM
Trade JVR and Marchenko or Fehr to Florida for Demers, McCann, 2nd rounder.

Trade Bozak and Marchenko or Fehr to Colorado for whatever those dummies will give you.

Sign Keith Kinkaid. With this roster we'll need a fairly budget-conscious back-up unfortunately. Maybe even just bring back McBackup for a year.

Flex your RFA-negotiation muscles and get Brown and Hyman signed for a combined $4mil at the most.

Sign Thornton for 2 years at $6mil and Marleau for 2 years at $5mil. Limited NTCs.

Marleau-Matthews-Marner
Komarov-Kadri-Brown
Hyman-Thornton-Nylander
Martin-McCann-Kapanen
Soshnikov-Leivo

Rielly-Demers
Gardiner-Zaitsev
Dermott/Swede-Carrick
Marincin

Andersen
Kinkaid

So you'd keep uncle Leo?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 10:53:04 AM
So you'd keep uncle Leo?

I'd say I was trying to be an armchair GM while still keeping in mind what I think our management is realistically capable of. I don't expect Komarov to be traded.

Would I personally trade him? I don't know. I didn't love his contract originally but I think he's definitely provided value for it. I think he and Kadri make a very good shut-down duo. I think that he's arguably our best defensive forward/winger. He's a little redundant because of Hyman and Martin as well on the left side, but he's clearly the best of those 3. I'd maybe look at trading him but my price would be pretty high. Otherwise see if you can re-sign him at a slightly reduced rate. His drop in offence might help facilitate that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 10:54:50 AM
Oh, I forgot one thing, during one of Lou's many afternoon naps Dubas needs to take over the controls and trade Ben Smith somewhere. Anywhere. I just don't trust Babcock to not use him at some point if he's under contract with us.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 11:30:50 AM
I plugged that plan into Capfriendly to see if it works:

(http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p205/CarltonTheBear/capfriendly.jpg)

That puts us right at the cap ceiling on day 1 of the season. Which is ideal if we're going to be using LTIR anyway. Once day 1 hits we put either Horton or Lupul on LTIR, and call up an extra forward (Kapanen) and an extra defenceman (Dermott/Borgman/Rosen).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 11:42:29 AM
It's pretty crazy that with our LTIR'd guys ($10.55mil), cap overages ($5.37mil), retained salaries ($1.2mil), and buyouts ($2.08mil) this team still has over $19mil in dead cap space to deal with next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: princedpw on June 29, 2017, 11:49:18 AM
Any reasonable scenario in which we sign Marleau on a 2-year deal, trade for Demers, sign a reasonable back-up goaltender, and don't sign any of the UFA capweight will be a big win.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: princedpw on June 29, 2017, 11:52:28 AM
It's pretty crazy that with our LTIR'd guys ($10.55mil), cap overages ($5.37mil), retained salaries ($1.2mil), and buyouts ($2.08mil) this team still has over $19mil in dead cap space to deal with next season.

Yup.  I think I read that this year, in terms of useful salary, the leafs were essentially operating under the cap floor.  The ~$20 million in excess value provided by the rookies really helps out.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Zee on June 29, 2017, 12:33:30 PM
Any reasonable scenario in which we sign Marleau on a 2-year deal, trade for Demers, sign a reasonable back-up goaltender, and don't sign any of the UFA capweight will be a big win.

Problem is I've heard it said that Marleau has no interest in taking a pay cut from what he made last season -- $6.5M -- so that's a big no.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 29, 2017, 01:20:52 PM
Problem is I've heard it said that Marleau has no interest in taking a pay cut from what he made last season -- $6.5M -- so that's a big no.

I'd be pretty stunned if anybody gave him $6.5mil. Especially on a multi-year contract. That's just not happening.

I like the guy, and as I said I'd give him $5mil, but he's had declining offensive stats for 4 seasons now. He's going to have to take a pay cut.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Deebo on June 29, 2017, 01:28:09 PM
Flex your RFA-negotiation muscles and get Brown and Hyman signed for a combined $4mil at the most.

$4M for Brown and Hyman seems pretty realistic to me.
2.75 for Brown and 1.25 for Hyman.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Zee on June 29, 2017, 01:28:25 PM
Problem is I've heard it said that Marleau has no interest in taking a pay cut from what he made last season -- $6.5M -- so that's a big no.

I'd be pretty stunned if anybody gave him $6.5mil. Especially on a multi-year contract. That's just not happening.

I like the guy, and as I said I'd give him $5mil, but he's had declining offensive stats for 4 seasons now. He's going to have to take a pay cut.

He may realize that if he's not signed by August.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on June 29, 2017, 01:38:16 PM
I plugged that plan into Capfriendly to see if it works:

(http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p205/CarltonTheBear/capfriendly.jpg)

That puts us right at the cap ceiling on day 1 of the season. Which is ideal if we're going to be using LTIR anyway. Once day 1 hits we put either Horton or Lupul on LTIR, and call up an extra forward (Kapanen) and an extra defenceman (Dermott/Borgman/Rosen).
Your hired, how exciting would that roster be going into the season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: AvroArrow on June 29, 2017, 02:41:16 PM
Demers supposedly has a signing bonus due July 1st and Florida is trying to cut costs.  Come on Lou!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: AvroArrow on June 29, 2017, 02:48:49 PM
Alternatively, overload the defense at a slight hit to our offense:

Trade JvR +Carrick for Demers + picks
Sing Shattenkirk
Sign Justin Williams
Sign Boyle/other 4th line center

Kapanen - Matthews - Marner
Williams - Bozak - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Martin - Boyle/other - Hyman

Reilly - Shattenkirk
Gardiner - Demers
Dermott/Rosen/Borgman - Zaitsev
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on June 29, 2017, 03:47:45 PM
Deep in the armchair. That is, screw the “gud pros.”

UFA SIGNINGS   
Elliott as backup — 1 @ $2,000,000
Marleau and Thornton to matching “Win a Cup with Your Friend” deals — 2 yrs @ $5,000,000

RFA SIGNINGS   
Squeeze Connor Brown and Zach Hyman, massive offer sheet for Parayko.         
Brown — 2 @ $1,667,000
Hyman — 2 @ $1,333,000
Parayko — 6 @ $7,610,000
Compensation to STL: 2018 1st, 2019 1st, 2018 2nd, 2019 3rd

TRADES
Purge the pending UFAs (and Matt Martin) to recover some of those picks.
JvR to Florida for 1st & McCann
Bozak to whoever for a 1st or 2nd. Or even 3rd. Who cares?
Marchenko, Marincin, Komarov, Martin for 3rds to 7ths. Whatever.


CONTEND NOW WITH…
W. Nylander ($894,167) - A. Matthews ($925,000) - C. Brown ($1,667,000)
P. Marleau ($5,000,000) - J. Thornton ($5,000,000) - M. Marner ($894,167)
J. Leivo ($612,500) - N. Kadri ($4,500,000) - K. Kapanen ($863,333)
Z. Hyman ($1,333,000) - J. McCann ($894,167) - N. Soshnikov ($736,667)
 
M. Rielly ($5,000,000) - C. Parayko ($7,610,000)
J. Gardiner ($4,050,000) - N. Zaitsev ($4,500,000)
T. Dermott ($863,333) - C. Carrick ($750,000)
C. Rosén ($925,000)

F. Andersen ($5,000,000)
B. Elliott ($2,000,000)

AHL BURIED
E. Fehr ($975,000)

BUYOUTS
T. Gleason ($0) - J. Cowen ($0) - M. Grabovski ($0)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 21
NHL Salary Cap: $75,000,000
LTIR: $5,415,000
Bonus Overages: $5,370,000
Cap Hit: $69,061,667
Cap Space: $5,938,333
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 29, 2017, 04:01:10 PM
The Blues would match the offer sheet at that number.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2017, 04:10:12 PM

Between getting dealt in the first place, the relatively low cost paid for him and the lack of chatter around him I really don't think Shattenkirk is going to be on the open market quite in the way we think. I could be wrong but I'd bet we hear about a deal between him and the Rangers pretty quickly on the 1st.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 29, 2017, 04:18:38 PM

Between getting dealt in the first place, the relatively low cost paid for him and the lack of chatter around him I really don't think Shattenkirk is going to be on the open market quite in the way we think. I could be wrong but I'd bet we hear about a deal between him and the Rangers pretty quickly on the 1st.

That was my instinct too, but Friedman just posted a little primer that said the Rangers intend to be somewhat modest, only looking for some help up front to replace Stepan. (Bonino?)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on June 29, 2017, 04:29:15 PM

Between getting dealt in the first place, the relatively low cost paid for him and the lack of chatter around him I really don't think Shattenkirk is going to be on the open market quite in the way we think. I could be wrong but I'd bet we hear about a deal between him and the Rangers pretty quickly on the 1st.

That was my instinct too, but Friedman just posted a little primer that said the Rangers intend to be somewhat modest, only looking for some help up front to replace Stepan. (Bonino?)

Which is exactly what I'd say if I were the Rangers and looking to bolster my negotiating position.

Also, am I missing something about Parayko?  $7.6m, and they'd match that you think?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 29, 2017, 04:39:11 PM
Also, am I missing something about Parayko?  $7.6m, and they'd match that you think?

He's big, young, solid defensively, can skate, can pass, has some legit offensive production, is right handed...he's effectively what you'd design from scratch if you were looking to build a valuable defenseman in today's game. He doesn't have Norris level offence, sure, but that's about all he's missing. Teams won't let someone like that walk unless they have no other choice.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on June 29, 2017, 04:43:57 PM
Also, am I missing something about Parayko?  $7.6m, and they'd match that you think?

Dellow's idea was to get to just under the 4 x 1st rounder compensation and make it impossible for STL to match. The huge bonus overage -- plus retained salary (Phil!) and the Zaitsev overpayment -- makes it impossible to much higher than 7.6m, even if you take a chainsaw to the rest of the roster.

Unless you get VGK to take Lupul's contract for a pick.

Then Dellow's 1x$9m for Parayko could work. Would have to hope you can re-sign him to something like 6x$7.5 the next season.

(http://i.imgur.com/0S7NT9n.png)

(http://i.imgur.com/UsEvEAj.png)

Now,

CONTEND WITH:

FORWARDS (14)
J. Leivo ($612,500) - A. Matthews ($925,000) - W. Nylander ($894,167)
P. Marleau ($5,250,000) - J. Thornton ($5,250,000) - M. Marner ($894,167)
L. Komarov ($2,950,000) - N. Kadri ($4,500,000) - C. Brown ($2,250,000)
M. Martin ($2,500,000)  - J. McCann ($894,167) - N. Soshnikov ($736,667)
N. Shore ($850,000) - Z. Hyman ($1,750,000)

DEFENSE (7)
M. Rielly ($5,000,000) - C. Parayko ($9,100,000)
J. Gardiner ($4,050,000) - N. Zaitsev ($4,500,000)
T. Dermott ($863,333) - C. Carrick ($750,000)
M. Hunwick ($1,250,000)

GOALTENDER (2)
F. Andersen ($5,000,000)
B. Elliott ($2,250,000)

AHL BURIED
E. Fehr ($975,000)

BUYOUTS
T. Gleason ($1,333,333) - J. Cowen ($750,000) - M. Grabovski ($0)

DETAILS
Roster Size: 23
NHL Salary Cap: $75,000,000
LTIR: $2,351,666
Bonus Overages: $5,370,000
Cap Hit: $75,000,000
Cap Space: $0
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on June 29, 2017, 07:51:30 PM
I'd be pretty stunned if anybody gave him $6.5mil. Especially on a multi-year contract. That's just not happening.

I like the guy, and as I said I'd give him $5mil, but he's had declining offensive stats for 4 seasons now. He's going to have to take a pay cut.

I also imagine he and Thornton will find the UFA market isn't as lucrative as they were hoping - which is why I'm not sure either of them make it to Saturday without re-upping in San Jose.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 29, 2017, 08:32:38 PM
Oh, I forgot one thing, during one of Lou's many afternoon naps Dubas needs to take over the controls and trade Ben Smith somewhere. Anywhere. I just don't trust Babcock to not use him at some point if he's under contract with us.

Yeah right. They squandered Clarke Wilm's talents once upon a time.  You can be damn sure they won't make THAT mistake again.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on June 30, 2017, 05:42:54 AM
https://theathletic.com/71743/2017/06/29/mirtle-where-can-the-leafs-find-value-in-an-overpriced-star-thin-free-agent-market/

Mirtle and I have similar ideas, but he is much taller. I'm a better skater though, despite not being able to stop properly. And my ideas still include Griffith.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Bender on June 30, 2017, 07:35:45 AM
Yeah I like Williams too. Appears they might be in tough everywhere else though

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2017, 08:41:23 AM
He's big, young, solid defensively, can skate, can pass, has some legit offensive production, is right handed...he's effectively what you'd design from scratch if you were looking to build a valuable defenseman in today's game. He doesn't have Norris level offence, sure, but that's about all he's missing. Teams won't let someone like that walk unless they have no other choice.

And that's at least partially because he was blocked from PP minutes by Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk. His 5-on-5 scoring rates are actually pretty good (14th in the league over the past 2 seasons in P/60). Now that Shats is gone he'll start getting consistent PP time and you'll see those point totals increase by a fair bit I'd imagine.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on June 30, 2017, 09:00:26 AM

Shats.


Ladies and gentleman, we have a new champion for worst nickname.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 30, 2017, 09:21:26 AM

Shats.


Ladies and gentleman, we have a new champion for worst nickname.

I dunno, a part of me wants the Leafs to sign him just because I love saying it.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: RedLeaf on June 30, 2017, 10:22:58 AM

Shats.


Ladies and gentleman, we have a new champion for worst nickname.

I dunno, a part of me wants the Leafs to sign him just because I love saying it.

As long as he doesn't shat the bed while he's a Leaf.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on June 30, 2017, 01:11:07 PM

Shats.


Ladies and gentleman, we have a new champion for worst nickname.

I dunno, a part of me wants the Leafs to sign him just because I love saying it.

Shats and not Shatty? Like, look at that Shatty play?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Highlander on June 30, 2017, 03:51:29 PM
Oh, I forgot one thing, during one of Lou's many afternoon naps Dubas needs to take over the controls and trade Ben Smith somewhere. Anywhere. I just don't trust Babcock to not use him at some point if he's under contract with us.
When Lou naps its upside down in a cave!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on June 30, 2017, 07:31:52 PM
via theathletic:

Quote
The Sharks are still very much in the mix to keep both him and center Joe Thornton but a couple big-market teams remain in contention for Marleau in the New York Rangers and Toronto Maple Leafs. According to an NHL source, Mike Babcock is putting the hard sell on Marleau and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s done the same for Thornton.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 01, 2017, 07:05:04 AM
Bob McKenzie believes McElhinney is likely to return to the Leafs. 5 hours until several teams take their first steps towards another future buyout.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: KadriFan on July 03, 2017, 07:47:39 AM
How about trading Lupul and JVR to Vegas for Colin Miller?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Zee on July 03, 2017, 10:40:08 AM
How about trading Lupul and JVR to Vegas for Colin Miller?
Vegas would want Lupul because...?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 03, 2017, 11:12:36 AM
How about trading Lupul and JVR to Vegas for Colin Miller?
Vegas would want Lupul because...?

JVR is significantly better/more valuable than Miller.

Vegas only drafted two right shots on D, Miller and Engelland. They've explicitly stated they won't be dealing any young damn though, so this proposal seems unrealistic.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Britishbulldog on July 03, 2017, 11:54:05 PM
Vegas would want Lupul because...?

Does Lupul cost an NHL team any real cash or is his salary covered by insurance meaning it only takes cap space?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 04, 2017, 10:28:07 AM
New Jersey's gearing up nicely this off season.

Let's help:
To NJD: JvR, Fehr (or whatever B/C forward prospect)
To Toronto: 2018 1st, Kovalchuk's rights, Ryane Clowe's contract

Clowe's contract bumps up our LTIR space by another 4.85M, which gives us a lot of money to throw at a 1 yr show-me deal to Kovalchuk.

Trade the NJD or TOR 2018 1st + Marchenko to VGK for Miller + 2019 3rd.

Trade Bozak for whatever picks.

Marleau - Matthews - Marner/Hyman
Kovalchuk - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown
Komarov - Kadri - Brown/Marner
Martin - Moore - Hyman/Kapanen
Leivo

Gardiner - Hainsey
Rielly - Zaitsev
Marincin - Miller
Rosen - Carrick
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2017, 10:42:50 AM
I'm as big of a Kovalchuk fan as anybody here, but I'm not sure there's room for both him and Marleau on the team. Especially since it sounds like he's looking for basically an identical contract (3 years, $6.5mil-ish). If I had to pick one of those two it would have been Kovy but I don't think the Leafs were ever really in on that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 04, 2017, 11:01:12 AM
I'm as big of a Kovalchuk fan as anybody here, but I'm not sure there's room for both him and Marleau on the team. Especially since it sounds like he's looking for basically an identical contract (3 years, $6.5mil-ish). If I had to pick one of those two it would have been Kovy but I don't think the Leafs were ever really in on that.

It was a longshot spitball at best, and those rarely stick anyway.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 04, 2017, 11:07:35 AM
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/07/03/mike-babcock-excited-about-leafs-additions-and-the-teams-depth.html

Quote
But Marleau’s signing, and all the other additions also raises the prospect of potential trades. Not counting injured players Joffrey Lupul and Nathan Horton, the Leafs have 15 forwards under contract, and two more — Connor Brown and Zach Hyman — needing deals. And that number doesn’t count Kasperi Kapanen, who looked like he was ready for the NHL this spring, or Aaltonen, the Finnish forward from the KHL who could play for the Marlies. That gets the Leafs to 18 or 19 NHL-calibre forwards, when they really need only 13.

Babcock brought up Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Leo Komarov.

“They’re real good players,” the coach said. “And two of them or . . . any way you look at it, we can’t all be on the team as we move ahead. It doesn’t work like that. We have to figure out a way when you have opportunities to do what you can.”

I'm glad the front office is thinking of shuffling from that part of the deck, rather than younger.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on July 04, 2017, 11:30:49 AM
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/07/03/mike-babcock-excited-about-leafs-additions-and-the-teams-depth.html

Quote
But Marleau’s signing, and all the other additions also raises the prospect of potential trades. Not counting injured players Joffrey Lupul and Nathan Horton, the Leafs have 15 forwards under contract, and two more — Connor Brown and Zach Hyman — needing deals. And that number doesn’t count Kasperi Kapanen, who looked like he was ready for the NHL this spring, or Aaltonen, the Finnish forward from the KHL who could play for the Marlies. That gets the Leafs to 18 or 19 NHL-calibre forwards, when they really need only 13.

Babcock brought up Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Leo Komarov.

“They’re real good players,” the coach said. “And two of them or . . . any way you look at it, we can’t all be on the team as we move ahead. It doesn’t work like that. We have to figure out a way when you have opportunities to do what you can.”

I'm glad the front office is thinking of shuffling from that part of the deck, rather than younger.
Don't like Kadri's name included. Feels like he has finally found his spot but for a quality Dman we would obviously have to consider it. I just haven't considered moving Kadri until now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 04, 2017, 11:37:48 AM
That Babcock quote is more revealing than we've come to expect from this group, I suspect it's a subtle attempt to force Lou's hand at least a little.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 04, 2017, 11:58:43 AM
That Babcock quote is more revealing than we've come to expect from this group, I suspect it's a subtle attempt to force Lou's hand at least a little.

Just like when he talked about their draft discussions and Hunter favouring wingers while he liked C/Ds. Or let slip that Nylander is viewed as a C, but had to walk that back at the end of the year to not tank Bozak's trade value.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: disco on July 04, 2017, 11:59:21 AM
Injuries. Several key and supporting players will be injured at some point this season. That's where the depth comes in handy.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on July 04, 2017, 12:10:27 PM
I don't think any of our vets will yield a decent dman. I cannot put together any reasonable offer of our vets for a quality dman that wouldn't have to include picks from us going the other way. We might just have to flip some of our vets for picks and use the cap space next summer? Or let them walk. 2018 potential Dman UFAs already resigned include Vlasic and Fowler. D just don't come available. I am worried the Leafs will not be able to improve their D to contender status any time soon if ever. I just don't see how it can be done.

I'll just prey that one of these Swedish signings will be a home run or that Reilly/Gardiner/Zaitstev will find another gear or two or three.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 04, 2017, 01:35:51 PM
New Jersey's gearing up nicely this off season.

Let's help:
To NJD: JvR, Fehr (or whatever B/C forward prospect)
To Toronto: 2018 1st, Kovalchuk's rights, Ryane Clowe's contract

Clowe's contract bumps up our LTIR space by another 4.85M, which gives us a lot of money to throw at a 1 yr show-me deal to Kovalchuk.

Trade the NJD or TOR 2018 1st + Marchenko to VGK for Miller + 2019 3rd.

Trade Bozak for whatever picks.

Marleau - Matthews - Marner/Hyman
Kovalchuk - Nylander - Kapanen/Brown
Komarov - Kadri - Brown/Marner
Martin - Moore - Hyman/Kapanen
Leivo

Gardiner - Hainsey
Rielly - Zaitsev
Marincin - Miller
Rosen - Carrick

One problem with your proposal is we can't go more than 10% above the cap during the offseason.  There is no such thing as LTIR during the offseason either, so Lupul, Horton, and Clowe's contracts would count towards that 82.5 million offseason limit.  Already, we sit at 76.7 million without Hyman and Brown signed. Basically, you'd have to wait until the season started to sign your players because you'd have no room (unless you traded another big salary away).  While all the forwards we have right now won't be on the team (traded, Marlies, or lost on waivers) come the start of the season, we won't be dropping a whole lot of salary in the latter two scenarios.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 04, 2017, 01:54:02 PM
One problem with your proposal is we can't go more than 10% above the cap during the offseason.  There is no such thing as LTIR during the offseason either, so Lupul, Horton, and Clowe's contracts would count towards that 82.5 million offseason limit.  Already, we sit at 76.7 million without Hyman and Brown signed. Basically, you'd have to wait until the season started to sign your players because you'd have no room (unless you traded another big salary away).  While all the forwards we have right now won't be on the team (traded, Marlies, or lost on waivers) come the start of the season, we won't be dropping a whole lot of salary in the latter two scenarios.

That's a good point that I completely neglected to consider.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: AvroArrow on July 04, 2017, 05:26:18 PM
One problem with your proposal is we can't go more than 10% above the cap during the offseason.  There is no such thing as LTIR during the offseason either, so Lupul, Horton, and Clowe's contracts would count towards that 82.5 million offseason limit.  Already, we sit at 76.7 million without Hyman and Brown signed. Basically, you'd have to wait until the season started to sign your players because you'd have no room (unless you traded another big salary away).  While all the forwards we have right now won't be on the team (traded, Marlies, or lost on waivers) come the start of the season, we won't be dropping a whole lot of salary in the latter two scenarios.

That's a good point that I completely neglected to consider.

Actually, there's SOIR (season opening IR).  I don't know when we're allowed to use it, but it removes the cap hit of players that didn't play a single game last year so that you can be cap compliant for opening day before you can use LTIR.  If we can use it whenever, it's a possible avenue around that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on July 04, 2017, 07:51:30 PM
https://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/2017/07/03/mike-babcock-excited-about-leafs-additions-and-the-teams-depth.html

Quote
Babcock brought up Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, James van Riemsdyk and Leo Komarov.

“They’re real good players,” the coach said. “And two of them or . . . any way you look at it, we can’t all be on the team as we move ahead. It doesn’t work like that. We have to figure out a way when you have opportunities to do what you can.”

Really interesting.

Let's go one better than Babs and trade three of the four: JvR, Bozak, and Komarov

That's $11.5m off the books and the internal replacements -- Marleau, Nylander, and Hyman, respectively -- are all already accounted for (except Hyman's, say, $1.5m extension).

Wonder what they could do with another $10m in cap space.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 04, 2017, 08:16:12 PM
Now that Marleau is here; I'd trade JvR first, as I think he has the most value. For what I think we'd get from a Bozak trade, I'd just as soon trade him just before the deadline. He still has value up the middle, especially in the face-off dot. He can score, he's decent at the shootout and he's relatively good in our end.

Komarov I think I'd like to hold onto. I think guys like him are valuable in the playoffs, not to mention the game in and out stuff he does. You need fellas like that when you go to war, no? I also don't see Hyman in the same light, so for him to take over for what Komarov does currently, I'm not seeing it yet.

I'd target defensemen in trade. Demers, Tanev, Barrie, Trouba ...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: jdh1 on July 04, 2017, 09:43:40 PM
Now that Marleau is here; I'd trade JvR first, as I think he has the most value. For what I think we'd get from a Bozak trade, I'd just as soon trade him just before the deadline. He still has value up the middle, especially in the face-off dot. He can score, he's decent at the shootout and he's relatively good in our end.

Komarov I think I'd like to hold onto. I think guys like him are valuable in the playoffs, not to mention the game in and out stuff he does. You need fellas like that when you go to war, no? I also don't see Hyman in the same light, so for him to take over for what Komarov does currently, I'm not seeing it yet.

I'd target defensemen in trade. Demers, Tanev, Barrie, Trouba ...

Speaking of the shootout,wondering if Marleau has got a descent record on the shootout,maybe he can win a game or two that way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 04, 2017, 10:02:50 PM
I'd target defensemen in trade. Demers, Tanev, Barrie, Trouba ...

He isn't my 1st choice but Barrie seems to be the next best realistic option after Demers. And I sort of feel like if a Demers trade was going to happen it would have happened by now. Trade JVR to either the Rangers or Blue Jackets for picks (both lost out in the Kovalchuk sweepstakes) and then send picks to Colorado for Barrie. Maybe try and get the Avs to eat a $1mil or so of his cap hit too.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on July 04, 2017, 10:18:00 PM
Actually, there's SOIR (season opening IR).  I don't know when we're allowed to use it, but it removes the cap hit of players that didn't play a single game last year so that you can be cap compliant for opening day before you can use LTIR.  If we can use it whenever, it's a possible avenue around that.

We went through this last summer, but, SOIR isn't really an independent thing, but, rather, the process by which players who were hurt in training camp are placed on IR to start the season. It doesn't impact the 10% summer overage limit, nor does it impact players who didn't play last season - unless they injure themselves again in training camp. (There are other factors in it, as well - it's really meant for AHLers who get hurt during camp, not NHLers with long-term injuries - it doesn't allow relief for players who didn't play any games, but, rather, for players who weren't on the NHL roster for any, and injured players are still technically on the roster.)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: KadriFan on July 05, 2017, 07:11:00 AM
I don't see the leafs trading for any older, established and expensive defensemen.  I do see them trading excess forwards for prospects with the potential to become core guys.  Or someone like Shultz when he was still in Edmonton. A guy with upside who wasn't working out and needed a fresh start.  Don't forget, they're going to need a lot of cap space in a couple years.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 05, 2017, 10:38:08 AM
I don't see the leafs trading for any older, established and expensive defensemen.  I do see them trading excess forwards for prospects with the potential to become core guys.  Or someone like Shultz when he was still in Edmonton. A guy with upside who wasn't working out and needed a fresh start.  Don't forget, they're going to need a lot of cap space in a couple years.

With the caveat that we won't know where the Cap will be in a couple years it's worth pointing out just how good the Leafs cap situation is in that regard. When the Marner and Matthews extensions figure to kick in, the Leafs only have 33 million in salary commitments With most of that 33 million going to core players on team friendly deals(Andersen, Rielly, Kadri, Zaitsev) and LTIR(Horton). Yes, between now and then they'll have to sign Gardiner and Nylander but even if they get, say, 15 million between them you're still going to have 35 million dollars or so if the cap stays stagnant, 41 if Marleau is off the books.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on July 05, 2017, 12:50:14 PM
I'd target defensemen in trade. Demers, Tanev, Barrie, Trouba ...

He isn't my 1st choice but Barrie seems to be the next best realistic option after Demers. And I sort of feel like if a Demers trade was going to happen it would have happened by now. Trade JVR to either the Rangers or Blue Jackets for picks (both lost out in the Kovalchuk sweepstakes) and then send picks to Colorado for Barrie. Maybe try and get the Avs to eat a $1mil or so of his cap hit too.

Of that bunch, Trouba would, of course, be most appealing. Then Tanev and Demers, I guess. Barrie seems to replicate a lot of what we already have, but he's a talented defenseman on a bad team -- so, they tend to look weird.

But these guys… and Hamonic, Miller, Vatanen, etc. etc. It’s hard to get excited for any of them.

I’m still in favor of trading Lupul and a pick to whoever’s collecting garbage for futures, jettisoning Komarov, Bozak, JvR, and anything else necessary for picks/prospects, and then throwing an insane amount of money at Parayko (and number of picks at St Louis), as Dellow, Mirtle, and Marek have suggested.

We missed the opportunity to grab the last top-pairing guy who was reluctant to sign. Leafs didn’t know what they had, where they were, fair enough — but now… the time’s right.

We've still a few hours anyway, I think.

EDIT: Was more like minutes. Arbitration case filed: http://www.tsn.ca/blues-d-parayko-files-for-arbitration-1.797089
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on July 05, 2017, 05:03:18 PM
He isn't my 1st choice but Barrie seems to be the next best realistic option after Demers. And I sort of feel like if a Demers trade was going to happen it would have happened by now. Trade JVR to either the Rangers or Blue Jackets for picks (both lost out in the Kovalchuk sweepstakes) and then send picks to Colorado for Barrie. Maybe try and get the Avs to eat a $1mil or so of his cap hit too.

I read an article a little bit ago that did an analysis of the guys that would fit Toronto's needs. It may have been either Mirtle or Johnson that wrote it, but a few of the names were Demers, Barrie, Tanev, Harmonic and a few others. Surprisingly, Tanev was the best fit.

To me, I think we need to really nail down a top flight youngish guy for that spot. Even if it costs us a bit more in trade, I think it is worth it to maximize on the talent leaving, in our case. I see JvR as a really good player that holds good value, even Bozak I think still holds a bit of value also. If we have to add a younger player, I have confidence in the people there to pick the right one to add, if possible. Stay tuned I guess...
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 10, 2017, 01:21:27 PM
Some chatter that the Rangers might be sniffing around Bozak to replace Stepan.

I think Bozak is still a prime candidate for teams that missed out on the Bonino-ganza, or the MoJo discount sale, or perhaps the ones that find Duchene too rich for their tastes.

Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 10, 2017, 01:46:52 PM
Some chatter that the Rangers might be sniffing around Bozak to replace Stepan.

I think Bozak is still a prime candidate for teams that missed out on the Bonino-ganza, or the MoJo discount sale, or perhaps the ones that find Duchene too rich for their tastes.

Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.

Hey, my Fabbro for JVR proposal still makes sense even with Dante's correct team involved!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on July 10, 2017, 01:55:16 PM
Just a couple of thoughts...

If the reports are true that the Leafs made a big pitch for Thornton, then I doubt they'd trade Bozak at this point unless they had a plan B for filling that 50 points of centre production.

And as far as trading Connor Brown for picks, I think this is the first of the tough decisions that are going to have to be made with young'ish guys in terms of considering cashing them in for futures after a high-production season.  I agree that Kapanen looks able to fill the position.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 10, 2017, 03:38:04 PM
Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.

I think you've got to do better in a deal for JVR than a team's #3 defensive prospect and a late 1st.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 10, 2017, 03:49:18 PM
Invalid Tweet IDwww.twitter.com/Berger_BYTES/status/884459588648669185

(http://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-MtzQspLbFdI/Vgv0UgQwgGI/AAAAAAABHPY/Q3bCvd0DFJo/monte-kali-heringen-28.jpg?imgmax=800)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 10, 2017, 03:50:06 PM
Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.

I think you've got to do better in a deal for JVR than a team's #3 defensive prospect and a late 1st.

I'll be pleased as punch if something better goes through.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 10, 2017, 03:56:47 PM
Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.

I think you've got to do better in a deal for JVR than a team's #3 defensive prospect and a late 1st.

I'll be pleased as punch if something better goes through.

Or, to put it another way, if that's what the market for him has fallen to it's a pretty solid sign of just how badly they bungled that situation.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on July 10, 2017, 04:06:49 PM
Him or JvR to Nashville for one of their top 3 defense prospects + top 50 pick would be a suitable return, in my opinion.

I think you've got to do better in a deal for JVR than a team's #3 defensive prospect and a late 1st.

I'll be pleased as punch if something better goes through.

Or, to put it another way, if that's what the market for him has fallen to it's a pretty solid sign of just how badly they bungled that situation.

I'm not sure how the Leafs have any control of the market on JVR?

Fallen from what?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 10, 2017, 04:14:23 PM
Fallen from what?

From what you should be able to get for a player of JVR's quality. If the market's so low on him that said return would get it done then it's probably a pretty good sign that the reason you can't get more is because he's determined to get to free agency and teams don't want to pay much for one year of him.

Or, alternately, that the time to trade him wasn't after everyone had spent on free agents and/or made alternate plans to bring in scoring wingers.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on July 10, 2017, 04:44:52 PM
Fallen from what?

From what you should be able to get for a player of JVR's quality. If the market's so low on him that said return would get it done then it's probably a pretty good sign that the reason you can't get more is because he's determined to get to free agency and teams don't want to pay much for one year of him.

I'm starting to wonder if this was the issue the whole time in trading JVR.  I was pounding the "trade JVR" drum pretty consistently all of last year, given he was healthy and performing well, and still had 1.5 years of term left.

Or, alternately, that the time to trade him wasn't after everyone had spent on free agents and/or made alternate plans to bring in scoring wingers.

Assuming that he isn't hellbent on getting to UFA, then we're obviously in agreement on this.

But if he was telling everyone that knocked on his door that he's not signing an extension, then I can see why they'd have a hard time moving him for anything that we'd be pumped about.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 10, 2017, 04:49:19 PM
But if he was telling everyone that knocked on his door that he's not signing an extension, then I can see why they'd have a hard time moving him for anything that we'd be pumped about.

But that's sort of my point. By letting it get to this stage, where he's within sight of free agency and has reduced his value accordingly, then it's really a bad calculation on their part.

Even with that said though I think a year of a 28 year old 30ish goal scorer with a bargain of a cap hit should get you more than the lower end of what Herman suggested.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 11, 2017, 09:01:05 AM
But if he was telling everyone that knocked on his door that he's not signing an extension, then I can see why they'd have a hard time moving him for anything that we'd be pumped about.

But that's sort of my point. By letting it get to this stage, where he's within sight of free agency and has reduced his value accordingly, then it's really a bad calculation on their part.

Even with that said though I think a year of a 28 year old 30ish goal scorer with a bargain of a cap hit should get you more than the lower end of what Herman suggested.

If Taylor Hall (younger, much better) only nets you Adam Larsson, I fail to see how we would have done MUCH better last year at the deadline than we may get now.  I'm not saying it wouldn't have been better- as the team acquiring him gets him for 1.3 seasons and 2 playoff runs (or that would be their thinking) instead of 1 each.  But there was also value to the Leafs:  taking JVR out of the lineup before the deadline last year also may have meant missing the playoffs.  I think the run at the end of the season and the playoffs were a great learning experience for the young core of the team and if that means diminished return on trading JvR I'm happy to accept that.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 11, 2017, 09:18:24 AM
Re: Hall/Larsson;

Many GMs have since let it be known that they would've offered more for Hall if they had known he was available.

i.e. Chiarelli is a doofus.

Source: one of the podcasts I was listening to several weeks ago. Might have been Marek, or Mirtle.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 11, 2017, 09:32:38 AM
Re: Hall/Larsson;

Many GMs have since let it be known that they would've offered more for Hall if they had known he was available.

i.e. Chiarelli is a doofus.

I completely agree Hall was worth more than Larsson and Chiarelli is a doofus.  It is definitely an example which stretches the truth on how low value scoring wingers have on the trade market.  But I still stand by my statement that scoring wingers don't have as much value as many here are hoping to get for JvR- whether it was last year or now. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 10:13:13 AM
Re: Hall/Larsson;

Many GMs have since let it be known that they would've offered more for Hall if they had known he was available.

More for Hall as in more than they originally offered or more for Hall as in more than Larsson? Because if so, "more than Larsson" is kind of a subjective concept. Edmonton was looking for a defenseman to come in and contribute right away so unless "More" really means a defenseman who's unquestionably better than Larsson it's not all that meaningful a statement.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 11, 2017, 10:19:02 AM
Re: Hall/Larsson;

Many GMs have since let it be known that they would've offered more for Hall if they had known he was available.

More for Hall as in more than they originally offered or more for Hall as in more than Larsson? Because if so, "more than Larsson" is kind of a subjective concept. Edmonton was looking for a defenseman to come in and contribute right away so unless "More" really means a defenseman who's unquestionably better than Larsson it's not all that meaningful a statement.

They would have offered more value in return for getting Hall, than Larsson. My read on the statement was even if the primary return in question was merely a serviceable NHL-ready defenseman on par with Larsson, those GMs would have been been happy to add picks or prospects on top of the deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on July 11, 2017, 10:26:01 AM
Re: Hall/Larsson;

Many GMs have since let it be known that they would've offered more for Hall if they had known he was available.

More for Hall as in more than they originally offered or more for Hall as in more than Larsson? Because if so, "more than Larsson" is kind of a subjective concept. Edmonton was looking for a defenseman to come in and contribute right away so unless "More" really means a defenseman who's unquestionably better than Larsson it's not all that meaningful a statement.

They would have offered more value in return for getting Hall, than Larsson. My read on the statement was even if the primary return in question was merely a serviceable NHL-ready defenseman on par with Larsson, those GMs would have been been happy to add picks or prospects on top of the deal.

Edmonton also said that the fact that Larsson had 5 years of affordable term on his deal was a big factor in targeting him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 10:27:12 AM
They would have offered more value in return for getting Hall, than Larsson. My read on the statement was even if the primary return in question was merely a serviceable NHL-ready defenseman on par with Larsson, those GMs would have been been happy to add picks or prospects on top of the deal.

But that sort of calls into question NHL GMs and their subjective evaluation of their players. Remember, not a lot of them are the types who are going to go look at Hero charts and decide who's equivalent with who accordingly. Some of them may think the defenseman they'd have offered was "on par" with Larsson but they may be way off on that front or Chiarelli, who's just as prone to bad readings and misgivings may just have disagreed.

Again, unless the offer in question was a defenseman who is not only unquestionably better than Larsson but of a similar style than Chiarelli very well might have still preferred the deal he made. Which doesn't make it the right call but, you know, this seems like post hoc CYA stuff.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 11, 2017, 10:37:09 AM
But that sort of calls into question NHL GMs and their subjective evaluation of their players. Remember, not a lot of them are the types who are going to go look at Hero charts and decide who's equivalent with who accordingly. Some of them may think the defenseman they'd have offered was "on par" with Larsson but they may be way off on that front or Chiarelli, who's just as prone to bad readings and misgivings may just have disagreed.

Again, unless the offer in question was a defenseman who is not only unquestionably better than Larsson but of a similar style than Chiarelli very well might have still preferred the deal he made. Which doesn't make it the right call but, you know, this seems like post hoc CYA stuff.

I think the main point from that remark that struck me was that Chiarelli did not open bidding to bring in more value. At the same time, I see the personal cost involved in putting a cornerstone player's name out on the market.

My main reason for bringing it up in the discussion was merely to suggest that Hall/Larsson shouldn't be a market suppressor for scoring wingers.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 10:57:41 AM
My main reason for bringing it up in the discussion was merely to suggest that Hall/Larsson shouldn't be a market suppressor for scoring wingers.

Well, that's true. I don't necessarily know if I'd chalk that up to Chiarelli being dumb and not opening up the bidding process but I think it's probably fair to say that Chiarelli was looking for something very specific and as a result maximizing value probably wasn't his #1 concern.

Also, when evaluating that trade, people seem to think of Hall exclusively as the 80 point scorer he was in 13-14 and not what he's been since. There really hasn't been a ton of difference in their respective scoring outputs the last three years(.75ppg for Hall to .72 for JVR). Hall was/is a more valuable player than JVR but right now I don't know that it isn't fair to say that JVR is probably a surer bet at this point and either way it's not like we're talking about two entirely different things. 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 11:02:12 AM
If Taylor Hall (younger, much better) only nets you Adam Larsson, I fail to see how we would have done MUCH better last year at the deadline than we may get now.

That's great but A) I didn't say they'd get much more for him at the deadline and B) I don't necessarily think the deadline was the right time to trade him either.

I do think, though, that the more time left on his contract the more valuable he was and that because the Leafs are, or at least should be, more flexible in what they're looking for in return that they're better situated to get more value back. Keep in mind this isn't in reference to the idea of something better than Larsson, it's something better than a team's 3rd best defensive prospect and a pick as low as the 2nd round.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 11, 2017, 11:15:44 AM
If Taylor Hall (younger, much better) only nets you Adam Larsson, I fail to see how we would have done MUCH better last year at the deadline than we may get now.

That's great but A) I didn't say they'd get much more for him at the deadline and B) I don't necessarily think the deadline was the right time to trade him either.

I do think, though, that the more time left on his contract the more valuable he was and that because the Leafs are, or at least should be, more flexible in what they're looking for in return that they're better situated to get more value back. Keep in mind this isn't in reference to the idea of something better than Larsson, it's something better than a team's 3rd best defensive prospect and a pick as low as the 2nd round.

A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

B)  On this I agree.  Last off season was probably the right time to do it.  We had the same problem we face this season- too many wingers.  Unfortunately, none are of the quality of JvR so our offense would take a hit.

C)  Completely agree. More time left on his contract, especially because his salary was below his offensive output (ie, he was a great value deal), would have yielded better return.  I also agree, I think we should be aiming to get more than that for return as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 11:20:51 AM
A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Britishbulldog on July 11, 2017, 11:51:34 AM
I am just hoping for a couple of little trades for dmen.  Figured that I would vent it here...

Winnipeg is looking for a Top 4 LH dman which we have in Gardiner.  As much as I would hate to lose Gardiner I believe that packaging him and his skill with a 2nd pick should net Trouba.

To fill that LH hole I would then take next years 1st Rd Pick, our top Dman prospect (guessing Dermott), our top forward prospect (Andreas Johnsson??), offensively gifted Leivo for Ekman-Larsson who I could see leaving Arizona when he is a UFA due to the disarray the franchise is in.

Was thinking that Soshnikov would be enough for a low Cap team to take the final year of Lupul's insured LITR contract as well.

Roster
Left Wing                            Centre                    Right Wing
Marleau, Patrick              Matthews, Auston       Nylander, William
$6,250,000                         $925,000                  $894,167

Van Riemsdyk, James       Bozak, Tyler              Marner, Mitchell
$4,250,000                          $4,200,000               $894,167

Komarov, Leo                   Kadri, Nazem             Brown, Connor
$2,950,000                          $4,500,000                 $3,000,000

Martin, Matt                    Moore, Dominic         Hyman, Zach
$2,500,000                         $1,000,000               $2,250,000

Fehr, Eric                        Smith, Ben
$2,000,000                         $650,000

Left Defense                          Right Defense            Goaltender
Ekman-Larsson, Oliver        Zaitsev, Nikita             Andersen, Frederik
$5,500,000                            $4,500,000                 $5,000,000

Rielly, Morgan                     Trouba, Jacob              McElhinney, Curtis
$5,000,000                            $2,812,500                  $850,000

Hainsey, Ron                      Carrick, Connor
$3,000,000                            $750,000

Marincin, Martin
$1,250,000

2017/18
With Buyouts, Retained salaries and Performance Bonuses that line up has a Cap Hit of $73.5 MIL.

2018/19
Let Bozak go for Kapanen, Komarov for Grundstrom, and Fehr for anyone and save $2 MIL from the buyouts being done. Re-sign JVR and Nylander to $6.0-$7 MIL home discounts if both are still dominating, and Trouba to $5-$6 MIL. All 3 for 8 years.  Yields around a $72.0 Cap Hit.

2019/2020
Re-signing Matthews, Marner, Ekman-Larsson and Kapanen would be incredibly helped by:
- trading Horton and the last year of his contract which is $3.6 MIL cash but a $5.3 MIL Cap Hit. Would lose a top prospect and/or draft pick.
- trading Marleau on July 2nd and the last year of his contract which is only $1.25 MIL cash after the July 1st $3 MIL signing bonus to save the $6.25 MIL Cap Hit

That would free up an additional $11.55 MIL to help sign the young guns meaning Matthews could be signed between $8 - $11 MIL and Marner to a 'Nylander' contract of $6-7 MIL if Marner continues to excel.  Yields around a $79.0 Cap Hit.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Britishbulldog on July 11, 2017, 12:03:54 PM
Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.

JVR's value is the key for me.  He can skate, has some of the softest hands around the net of any 6'3" forward in the league and has been consistent in his output.

If he doesn't yield a top player in a trade then the Leafs should sign him to a long term deal.

I went through the exercise on Capfriendly (as you can see above) to add a couple of decent defense men to see if the Leafs added a top pair that would be making $8 MIL (Ekman-Larsson) and $6 MIL (Trouba) when Matthews ($10 MIL), Marner ($7 MIL), etc needed to be re-signed could the Leafs keep the core together for the next 8 years and it could be done. 

Of all the 'trade chips' the Leafs have at the forward position I feel that JVR is by far the most valuable and hardest to replace.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 11, 2017, 12:22:31 PM
A)  You didn't say they'd get more for him, but you beat the trade him before the deadline drum pretty loudly IIRC.  On that, I disagreed because I thought he was more valuable to the team in their drive to the playoffs than what futures he may bring back (nobody was going to give us an NHL roster defenseman for him near the deadline).

Sure, so the main crux of our disagreement on that front wouldn't be JVR's return, it would be the general value of making the playoffs vs. other considerations. Or, I guess, the real extent to which trading JVR would cost the team in the playoff chase.

Well, I did point out that I believe his return is going to be lower than most are hoping/expecting at which point, yes, the impact of losing him might be bigger than the value we get back.

For instance, I think the biggest drop in his value to other teams came after the season started last year.  He definitely had the most value with 2 full years of his deal left.  I don't think his value has actually dropped that much between the trade deadline last year and this offseason- at least not as much as it did between last offseason and last trade deadline.  So, with the Leafs in a position to make the playoffs come last season's trade deadline, I think they did the right thing keeping him. 

Now we approach this offseason with some other considerations:

1.  We've signed Marleau, so trading JvR is more paltable as we have replaced SOME of his scoring (JvR is a better scorer than Marleau right now)
2.  We are in a cap and roster crunch.  Somebody, or preferably two veteran forwards need to be traded to create room.  ie Komarov probably needs to be traded with one of Bozak or JvR

On this last point, I actually lean towards trading Bozak before JvR, but an injury to a centerman would be pretty tough to handle with our C depth.  Right now, if one of them gets injured, Nylander can shift over.  With Bozak gone, Nylander is one of our top 3 centers and then Marleau is the next in line to shift over- his results at C haven't been great.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 03:39:31 PM
I went through the exercise on Capfriendly (as you can see above) to add a couple of decent defense men to see if the Leafs added a top pair that would be making $8 MIL (Ekman-Larsson) and $6 MIL (Trouba) when Matthews ($10 MIL), Marner ($7 MIL), etc needed to be re-signed could the Leafs keep the core together for the next 8 years and it could be done.

Yeah, so long as every single player on the team decides to take team-friendly deals and Arizona decides to trade OEL for a plate full of hot garbage we're set.   


Of all the 'trade chips' the Leafs have at the forward position I feel that JVR is by far the most valuable and hardest to replace.

Yes, he is our most valuable chip. As in, he's the most likely to fetch us a solid return.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 03:42:25 PM
Well, I did point out that I believe his return is going to be lower than most are hoping/expecting at which point, yes, the impact of losing him might be bigger than the value we get back.

Well, again, this is all predicated on the pretty solid likelihood that the team is losing him after this year anyway. So the "impact of losing him" is an eventual inevitability, whether or not you get something for him isn't.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Dappleganger on July 11, 2017, 04:23:02 PM
Is JVR, Bozak, Brown, Dermott, and a 2018 1st, enough to get Duchene and Barrie from Colorado?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 11, 2017, 04:44:16 PM
Is JVR, Bozak, Brown, Dermott, and a 2018 1st, enough to get Duchene and Barrie from Colorado?

I think it's anybody's guess as to what Sakic will do but I would say that, conventionally speaking, JVR would be of the least value to a team like Colorado who has no immediate aspirations and has no cap issues and who he's unlikely to sign with.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Dappleganger on July 12, 2017, 02:23:32 PM
I think it's anybody's guess as to what Sakic will do but I would say that, conventionally speaking, JVR would be of the least value to a team like Colorado who has no immediate aspirations and has no cap issues and who he's unlikely to sign with.

My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on July 12, 2017, 03:00:10 PM
My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.

But, then he runs the risk of injury completely torpedoing JvR's value, or a bad season, or any number of factors. He'd be taking on additional risk instead of assets with guaranteed future potential (and by that, I obviously don't mean they're guaranteed to become good players or anything, just that they're guaranteed to be assets the team will have past this coming season).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 12, 2017, 03:35:36 PM
My thought from Sakic's POV, JVR's value would be the possibility of trading him at next years trade deadline for a potential 1st round pick.

Right but that possibility would theoretically exist for whoever traded for him, with a team like Colorado he just wouldn't provide the extra value of contributing to any particular hopes for the coming season or be a realistic target for re-signing.

Either way, the rumours re: Sakic and Duchene is that the reason he hasn't been moved is that they're asking an awful lot for him and 2 late firsts, Bozak, Brown and Dermott for him and Barrie strikes me as maybe not being what would break that barrier. Realistically there's not a single blue-chipper in that bunch.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Big Daddy on July 13, 2017, 12:08:40 AM
If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: princedpw on July 13, 2017, 06:36:21 AM
If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5

I think that is some extreme wishful thinking there.  Bozak and JVR are of no use to a rebuilding team.  The other guys are mid level players and do not make enough money to offset the 5.5 million coming back our way.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 13, 2017, 08:55:21 AM
If we are dealing with Colorado.  We need to get Barrie and Landeskog.  We can give them any 4 of 2018 1st rounder, 2019 1st rounder, Conner Brown, Bozak, JVR, Gauthier, Carrick, Leivo.  Heck they can have any 5

I think that is some extreme wishful thinking there.  Bozak and JVR are of no use to a rebuilding team.  The other guys are mid level players and do not make enough money to offset the 5.5 million coming back our way.

Yeah, as mentioned earlier you could flip JVR or Bozak but that deal would be impossible to sell to a Colorado fanbase that's already looking at a long road ahead. You're selling on two of their biggest pieces and not getting anything close to an A level prospect or young player back.

Which, by all accounts, is the reason Sakic hasn't made any of these trades. He's asking a lot and he's asking for guys who are going to step in and play a major role. If a four nickels for a quarter deal was going to make things happen in Colorado, those deals would have been made already.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 13, 2017, 09:43:17 AM
Mr. Sakic,

I can offer you no better option for your rebuilding franchise than stalwart centreman Ben Smith. I believe he is familiar with your organization, and vice versa.

In Ben Smith, you will receive a top flight good professional hockey person who will be invaluable to a young team looking to find their way in the greatest hockey league in the world. Your coach will love his work ethic in the gym, his ability to win faceoffs out of sheer will, and just the sheer amount of time he hones his craft in the defensive zone.

When our team was facing a situation similar to the one you are currently enduring, Ben Smith was a difference maker after the trade deadline, protecting and ensuring our franchise's future. He can guarantee your legacy in this league with a steady, dependable hand.

We offer him to you for we want you to see you succeed.

Warmest regards,
Mr. Shanahan
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 25, 2017, 08:29:13 AM
Saw an interesting question get raised today on twitter: would anyone here trade Rielly or Gardiner (would probably need to be Rielly) for Dougie Hamilton? The Flames currently have him, Brodie, Hamonic, and Stone (making $3.5mil) as right-handed defencemen. Giordano is their only signed NHL defenceman who is left handed. So there might be some shuffling around there to be done.

Hero charts, for those into that kind of thing:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFlIXBrVoAIjGrX.jpg)

Hamilton was drafted 9th overall in 2011. He has 4 years left on his contract at $5.75mil.

Rielly was drafted 5th overall in 2012. He has 5 years left on his contract at $5mil.

Our top-4 essentially goes from this:

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Hainsey

to this:

Gardiner-Hamilton
Hainsey-Zaitsev

I think that it's somewhat a sideways move at worst. Hamilton's chart obviously is more flattering but there's also the fact that Rielly plays more minutes and probably tougher minutes. Although last season Hamilton did play mostly with Giordano so I'm guessing he was getting the tough assignments too.

In the short term, it makes out top-4 defence a little easier to upgrade since acquiring a left-handed defenceman to replace Hainsey in the new group will probably be easier than finding someone who can bump him out of the RD2 spot in the old group.

In the future, it possibly creates a log jam on the right side of Liljegren becomes the defenceman we hope he'll be, but in that case Zaitsev becomes a nice trade chip.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 25, 2017, 09:03:06 AM
Saw an interesting question get raised today on twitter: would anyone here trade Rielly or Gardiner (would probably need to be Rielly) for Dougie Hamilton? The Flames currently have him, Brodie, Hamonic, and Stone (making $3.5mil) as right-handed defencemen. Giordano is their only signed NHL defenceman who is left handed. So there might be some shuffling around there to be done.

Hero charts, for those into that kind of thing:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DFlIXBrVoAIjGrX.jpg)

Hamilton was drafted 9th overall in 2011. He has 4 years left on his contract at $5.75mil.

Rielly was drafted 5th overall in 2012. He has 5 years left on his contract at $5mil.

Our top-4 essentially goes from this:

Rielly-Zaitsev
Gardiner-Hainsey

to this:

Gardiner-Hamilton
Hainsey-Zaitsev

I think that it's somewhat a sideways move at worst. Hamilton's chart obviously is more flattering but there's also the fact that Rielly plays more minutes and probably tougher minutes. Although last season Hamilton did play mostly with Giordano so I'm guessing he was getting the tough assignments too.

In the short term, it makes out top-4 defence a little easier to upgrade since acquiring a left-handed defenceman to replace Hainsey in the new group will probably be easier than finding someone who can bump him out of the RD2 spot in the old group.

In the future, it possibly creates a log jam on the right side of Liljegren becomes the defenceman we hope he'll be, but in that case Zaitsev becomes a nice trade chip.

TJ Brodie is left-handed.  He will most likely pair with Hamonic.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 25, 2017, 09:11:16 AM
TJ Brodie is left-handed.  He will most likely pair with Hamonic.

Ah, I felt something seemed off about that. Capfriendly has Brodie listed as right defence for some reason.

Still, I wonder if Hamilton might be available regardless, and this just means defence wouldn't be what they'd be shopping him for which is beneficial to us. They brought in Hamonic and Stone and still have Bartkowski on the right side (edit: Bart also shoots left, goddamnit Capfriendly). If they gave Stone $3.5mil and a M-NTC then they might be banking on him playing a top-4 role.

Basically, I just really want Dougie Hamilton.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 25, 2017, 09:21:13 AM
More grist for the mill:
2016-2017: Hamilton | Rielly
(http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/CGY/hamildo93) (http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/wowy/1617/TOR/riellmo94)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 25, 2017, 09:41:49 AM
TJ Brodie is left-handed.  He will most likely pair with Hamonic.

Ah, I felt something seemed off about that. Capfriendly has Brodie listed as right defence for some reason.

Still, I wonder if Hamilton might be available regardless, and this just means defence wouldn't be what they'd be shopping him for which is beneficial to us. They brought in Hamonic and Stone and still have Bartkowski on the right side (edit: Bart also shoots left, goddamnit Capfriendly). If they gave Stone $3.5mil and a M-NTC then they might be banking on him playing a top-4 role.

Basically, I just really want Dougie Hamilton.

Yeah, the Flames D is pretty much set:

Gio - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
Bartkowski - Stone

Not sure if they will give a youngster a shot at the 6/7 D or sign a cheap vet but not much will change there.

I would really like Dougie Hamilton as well, but I don't see him shaking loose for anyone outside our big 3.  I don't think Rielly or Jake get it done (maybe with a 1st round pick?).  And I'm not paying any of those prices. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 25, 2017, 09:52:12 AM
Yeah, the Flames D is pretty much set:

Gio - Hamilton
Brodie - Hamonic
Bartkowski - Stone

Not sure if they will give a youngster a shot at the 6/7 D or sign a cheap vet but not much will change there.

I would really like Dougie Hamilton as well, but I don't see him shaking loose for anyone outside our big 3.  I don't think Rielly or Jake get it done (maybe with a 1st round pick?).  And I'm not paying any of those prices. 

Yeah like I said when they acquired Hamonic, that's one of the best defences in the league now. I just hoped Hamilton might have came loose in those moves. But it's pretty pipe-dreamy. And even if he was available they'd have Gaudreau and Tkachuk already on the left side so our biggest trade piece (JVR) would be of little interest to them (would have taken much more than that but still).  They need right wingers and our big-2 obviously aren't going anywhere. So unless Burke REALLY likes Brown there's nothing to be done.

It's still crazy to me Calgary got Hamilton for just a (mid) 1st and two 2nds.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 25, 2017, 10:28:16 AM
Saw an interesting question get raised today on twitter: would anyone here trade Rielly or Gardiner (would probably need to be Rielly) for Dougie Hamilton? The Flames currently have him, Brodie, Hamonic, and Stone (making $3.5mil) as right-handed defencemen. Giordano is their only signed NHL defenceman who is left handed. So there might be some shuffling around there to be done.

I'd trade Gardiner, probably not Rielly.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on July 25, 2017, 11:00:12 AM
I'm trying to appreciate why Calgary would want to do this?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Bates on July 25, 2017, 11:15:41 AM
Burke just doesn't like or want Hamilton!!!!😇
I'm trying to appreciate why Calgary would want to do this?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 25, 2017, 11:41:14 AM
I'm trying to appreciate why Calgary would want to do this?

Like I said, it really makes sense if you think some of Calgary's defencemen at right handed instead of left handed.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: princedpw on July 25, 2017, 01:18:42 PM
As leafs GM, I would trade Marner for Hamilton tomorrow ...

(I mean, I'd have to do a check on this year's and next year's cap situation to be sure there was a way I could make Hamilton's salary fit, but I'll bet someone creative can make it happen.  We still have a bit more LTR room, but I'm not sure it is quite enough.  If I had to trade Komorov or Brown to some random team for draft picks, because I couldn't fit both Brown/Komorov and Hamilton, I'd do that too.) 

Subbing in Kapanen in place of Marner and adding Hamilton gives us a better overall team, in my opinion. 

Marner is at peak value the next two years due to his contract situation, but after that, if he gets an 7, 8 million contract like some are suggesting then suddenly Hamilton has a significantly more efficient contract (until he gets a raise). 

I don't know Calgary's team very well, but if I were their GM, I doubt I do a straight up Marner for Hamilton swap.  Defensemen seem to be worth significantly more than wingers. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Bender on July 25, 2017, 01:28:12 PM
As leafs GM, I would trade Marner for Hamilton tomorrow ...

(I mean, I'd have to do a check on this year's and next year's cap situation to be sure there was a way I could make Hamilton's salary fit, but I'll bet someone creative can make it happen.  We still have a bit more LTR room, but I'm not sure it is quite enough.  If I had to trade Komorov or Brown to some random team for draft picks, because I couldn't fit both Brown/Komorov and Hamilton, I'd do that too.) 

Subbing in Kapanen in place of Marner and adding Hamilton gives us a better overall team, in my opinion. 

Marner is at peak value the next two years due to his contract situation, but after that, if he gets an 7, 8 million contract like some are suggesting then suddenly Hamilton has a significantly more efficient contract (until he gets a raise). 

I don't know Calgary's team very well, but if I were their GM, I doubt I do a straight up Marner for Hamilton swap.  Defensemen seem to be worth significantly more than wingers.

The crazy thing is both Billy Ny and Marner are convertable C/W
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 25, 2017, 01:41:24 PM
The crazy thing is both Billy Ny and Marner are convertable C/W

Convince me, please.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on July 25, 2017, 06:01:43 PM
As leafs GM, I would trade Marner for Hamilton tomorrow ...

(I mean, I'd have to do a check on this year's and next year's cap situation to be sure there was a way I could make Hamilton's salary fit, but I'll bet someone creative can make it happen.  We still have a bit more LTR room, but I'm not sure it is quite enough.  If I had to trade Komorov or Brown to some random team for draft picks, because I couldn't fit both Brown/Komorov and Hamilton, I'd do that too.) 

Subbing in Kapanen in place of Marner and adding Hamilton gives us a better overall team, in my opinion. 

Marner is at peak value the next two years due to his contract situation, but after that, if he gets an 7, 8 million contract like some are suggesting then suddenly Hamilton has a significantly more efficient contract (until he gets a raise). 

I don't know Calgary's team very well, but if I were their GM, I doubt I do a straight up Marner for Hamilton swap.  Defensemen seem to be worth significantly more than wingers.

No way I would make that trade. Hamilton is a third pairing D man at best.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 25, 2017, 06:04:12 PM
No way I would make that trade. Hamilton is a third pairing D man at best.

Okay, your turn to convince me of this assertion.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WAYNEINIONA on July 25, 2017, 09:55:06 PM
I watched at least 30 Flames games last year and was not impressed. I also have read the comments concerning Hamilton's play on the Calgary fan site. My statement was my opinion only. You have the right to yours as well.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 25, 2017, 09:59:39 PM
I watched at least 30 Flames games last year and was not impressed. I also have read the comments concerning Hamilton's play on the Calgary fan site. My statement was my opinion only. You have the right to yours as well.

I'd like to know more about what you saw in Hamilton (flaws and all), especially now that I know you had eyeballs on him. Something more substantial than asserting opinions would be nice, being the off-season and all.

For example, how is he on break outs? Is he merely a passenger to Giordano? Does he handle the puck patiently or like Polak? Shot: dangerous? or dangerous to teammates?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Bender on July 25, 2017, 11:47:21 PM
The crazy thing is both Billy Ny and Marner are convertable C/W

Convince me, please.
They both played both positions in their careers. Marner iirc believed he would be deployed at centre as well when in training camp. Kadri also started on wing for Leafs.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 25, 2017, 11:51:07 PM
They both played both positions in their careers. Marner iirc believed he would be deployed at centre as well when in training camp. Kadri also started on wing for Leafs.

Was Marner ever primarily used as a C in London even?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 26, 2017, 07:36:14 AM
They both played both positions in their careers. Marner iirc believed he would be deployed at centre as well when in training camp. Kadri also started on wing for Leafs.

Was Marner ever primarily used as a C in London even?

Bender is absolutely right that Marner and the Leafs intended him to play centre. He played wing that development camp to Trevor Moore, if memory serves. Then they drafted Matthews.

He was used in that spot for about a week in his D+1, if I recall correctly (L K?), and they promptly formed the Tkachuk - Dvorak - Marner line and tore up the league.

Edit: more like two months off and on. Prior to WJs, Canada's coach commented that he liked how Marner had played Centre this year, giving him some flexibility, even though he earmarked him for RW to Strome. Praise for Marner was oddly couched: Hunter said he was winning more than 50% of his faceoffs, and teammate Victor Mete said, yeah he'll be good if he has a few more years playing centre. http://www.lfpress.com/2015/10/21/london-knight-mitch-marner-likely-to-play-wing-during-canada-russia-series

Asked midway through this past season if Nylander and Marner were slated for Centre, Babcock emphatically said yes for Nylander, and tersely said no for Marner. He later walked the Nylander comment back in the offseason so as not to tank Bozak's trade value. http://www.toronto24hours.ca/2017/02/02/maple-leafs-coach-babock-sees-nylander-as-centre

Having watched them both play all season, Marner is better on the wing. He's the better playmaker and more defensively responsible player than others on his line, but he's too aggressive and crafty on the boards to play him down the middle. Especially when the options for top-9 are Matthews, Kadri, Bozak, and Nylander.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 27, 2017, 10:44:03 AM
With Orlov and Niskanen locked up long term, and being under cap hell, is it worth making a play for Carlson (with a stack of cheapo filler) a la the Grabner deal?

They have a lot of contract room (43/50), and currently only have 4M in cap space to fill out 2D and 4F positions.

Taking Carlson gives them 7M - the 4-5 <1M filler we send back: Lindberg, Rychel, Valiev, Ben Smith, Marchenko (they can waive if they want to).

Gardiner - Carlson
Rielly - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Carrick
Marincin - Rosen/whoever
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on July 27, 2017, 11:11:43 AM
With Orlov and Niskanen locked up long term, and being under cap hell, is it worth making a play for Carlson (with a stack of cheapo filler) a la the Grabner deal?

They have a lot of contract room (43/50), and currently only have 4M in cap space to fill out 2D and 4F positions.

Taking Carlson gives them 7M - the 4-5 <1M filler we send back: Lindberg, Rychel, Valiev, Ben Smith, Marchenko (they can waive if they want to).

Gardiner - Carlson
Rielly - Zaitsev
Hainsey - Carrick
Marincin - Rosen/whoever

Well, I don't doubt that Washington is feeling pressure to clear some cap space and Toronto is feeling the pressure to clear some contracts- but you aren't getting Carlson ($1) for a handful of nickels.  You have to at least include some quarters (1st round pick, Kapanen, Dermott etc) and I bet Washington STILL wants better than that considering their window is now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 27, 2017, 11:13:34 AM
I don't think the Caps are at a point where they'd trade Carlson, arguably their best defenseman, without getting much of anything in return. I think they're much more likely to just fill out their roster with minimum salary deals/rookies.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 27, 2017, 11:35:20 AM
Yeah, at the risk of sounding harsh there's no way in hell that trade happens. John Carlson (top pairing defenceman) is no Michael Grabner (good 4th liner).

Washington isn't even really in cap hell. The Johansson trade took care of that. They probably won't even have that much trouble re-signing Carlson next season. Worst case scenario for them is they'll have to buyout Orpik's final year to make it happen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 27, 2017, 12:45:46 PM
Ah, bummer. I guess they're not ready to push Orlov into the top 4 after giving him a 5M long term deal?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 27, 2017, 12:56:47 PM
Ah, bummer. I guess they're not ready to push Orlov into the top 4 after giving him a 5M long term deal?

Orlov's a top-3 defencemen for them, and arguably was last season too (led them in even-strength ice time, was primarily paired with Niskanen). The plan is for them to go with Orlov-Niskanen / x-Carlson / Orpik-x next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 27, 2017, 12:59:59 PM
Ah, bummer. I guess they're not ready to push Orlov into the top 4 after giving him a 5M long term deal?

1. I don't see how you get there. Orlov played mainly with other RHD last year(750 minutes with Niskanen, almost 400 with Carlson).

2. Even if Niskanen and Orlov on the right side made Carlson superfluous, they're still going to want good value for him.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 27, 2017, 01:24:48 PM
Not sure if this is another case of capfriendly causing some confusion since they have him listed as "RD", but Orlov is a leftie.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on July 27, 2017, 01:39:05 PM
Not sure if this is another case of capfriendly causing some confusion since they have him listed as "RD", but Orlov is a leftie.

That's what it was in my case.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on July 27, 2017, 01:39:37 PM
Not sure if this is another case of capfriendly causing some confusion since they have him listed as "RD", but Orlov is a leftie.

That's my confusion exactly. I thought I zoomed in to check his handedness, but that must've been Carlson and Niskanen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on August 15, 2017, 03:40:15 PM
Marleau  Matthews Nylander
JVR    Bozak   Marner   
Brown  Kadri   Kapanen
Martin/Moore/Uncle Leo/Hyman

Dynamite upfront, that D though.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: RedLeaf on August 15, 2017, 06:54:40 PM
Marleau  Matthews Nylander
JVR    Bozak   Marner   
Brown  Kadri   Kapanen
Martin/Moore/Uncle Leo/Hyman

Dynamite upfront, that D though.

Yeah. I wish we could say, the D will look after itself,  but we all know they need some help back there if they want to climb further up the standings.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 17, 2017, 05:06:44 PM

Hmmm, maybe Lou's old team gives him a ring about Bozak?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on August 23, 2017, 08:33:58 AM
A report from Russia indicates that Babcock and Lamoriello met with CSKA RH defenseman Igor Ozhiganov (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=77242) recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDaktr3S1g4

Per a redditor (https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/6vhn3b/babcock_and_lamoriello_were_in_moscow_recently_to/) who has followed him closely, this is the defenseman that Kucherov has been trying to sell Tampa on. He has one year left on his contract in the KHL.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 23, 2017, 08:46:33 AM
A report from Russia indicates that Babcock and Lamoriello met with CSKA RH defenseman Igor Ozhiganov (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=77242) recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CDaktr3S1g4

Per a redditor (https://www.reddit.com/r/hockey/comments/6vhn3b/babcock_and_lamoriello_were_in_moscow_recently_to/) who has followed him closely, this is the defenseman that Kucherov has been trying to sell Tampa on. He has one year left on his contract in the KHL.

This article here, from about a year ago, has a pretty big write-up on him: http://pucksandrecreation.com/across-the-pond-european-ufas-with-nhl-future-part-2/

Certainly sounds like an intriguing player. Wonder if there's any way around that final year of his KHL deal.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on August 23, 2017, 09:24:28 AM
This article here, from about a year ago, has a pretty big write-up on him: http://pucksandrecreation.com/across-the-pond-european-ufas-with-nhl-future-part-2/

Certainly sounds like an intriguing player. Wonder if there's any way around that final year of his KHL deal.

If he wanted to, he could buy out his final year, a la Petri Kontiola.
I like the sound of his profile, as he has the tools and gumption to be a big blueline meanie but has decided to use his skating and hands for goal scoring instead.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 15, 2017, 09:59:50 AM

Hmmmmmmmmm. A right fit eh? If only there was a centre around who had experience with their big-time winger who hasn't exactly seemed to click 100% with their big-2 centres.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 15, 2017, 10:18:15 AM

Hmmmmmmmmm. A right fit eh? If only there was a centre around who had experience with their big-time winger who hasn't exactly seemed to click 100% with their big-2 centres.

I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 15, 2017, 10:23:48 AM
I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

Yeah, that's about it. Pronman ranked them as the worst prospect pool in the league this summer. Which is incredibly fair. After Daniel Sprong, who isn't going anywhere, they've basically got nothing.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2017, 10:27:20 AM
I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

By not trading Bozak by now, the idea that you're going to get substantially more for him than a late first round pick is pretty tenuous.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 12:03:59 PM
I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

By not trading Bozak by now, the idea that you're going to get substantially more for him than a late first round pick is pretty tenuous.

Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2017, 12:14:04 PM
Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)

I think the team has more options there. You could bump Moore up to 3rd and use Fehr as the 4th line C in a pinch. Likewise you could use a first round pick to potentially shop around for a 3rd line C who might be around a little longer.

Or, you know, alternately Mike Babcock could maybe consider the idea of using a temporarily sub-optimal lineup that would help the team's prospect base instead of one that matches exactly what he wants now now now.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 15, 2017, 12:19:27 PM
I think you can make the argument he's a better option on the wing, but Marleau can also play centre.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2017, 12:27:53 PM
I think you can make the argument he's a better option on the wing, but Marleau can also play centre.

I think if push came to shove there are a number of guys you could get away with there. Marleau and Nylander being two, Komarov being a third...

Honestly, find a guy who can skate with Marner and JVR and isn't Stonehands McGee and what's the low end point total? 40? 45?
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on September 15, 2017, 01:03:00 PM
Marner's line isn't all that centre dependent anyway. Hyman is also a centre, btw  8)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 01:09:12 PM
Or, you know, the value of having him in our lineup all year might just outweigh that late first round pick?  Especially if your options for 3rd line center are Brooks or Aaltonen  (if Babcock doesn't think Nylander is ready to play C)

I think the team has more options there. You could bump Moore up to 3rd and use Fehr as the 4th line C in a pinch. Likewise you could use a first round pick to potentially shop around for a 3rd line C who might be around a little longer.

Or, you know, alternately Mike Babcock could maybe consider the idea of using a temporarily sub-optimal lineup that would help the team's prospect base instead of one that matches exactly what he wants now now now.

a)  Dominic Moore is not someone you want playing above the 4th line. 
b)  Sure, you could try and flip that 1st rounder back to someone else for someone who will be here longer-term.  But, if your long term plan is to play Nylander there then why?  Also, I think that type of move is much easier said than done.
c)  Someone mentioned Marleau... someone in the analytics community pointed out his results in the middle have not been good for a couple of years now and should only be considered a winger going forward.
c)  Sub-optimal lineup- I don't think the Leafs have that large a margin for getting into the playoffs that they should go sub-optimal.  Especially if we aren't as lucky on the injury front.

With all that said- I do like the idea of Nylander moving to center now and gaining that asset.  Also opens a spot on wing for one our our younger players who deserve it (Leivo, Kapanen).  The problem is, what happens if we have an injury to Kadri or Matthews.  You've already moved Nylander there, who probably needs sheltered minutes down the middle, and now you are going into Aaltonen and Brooks territory.  Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on September 15, 2017, 01:22:33 PM
Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

Maybe, but that's some pretty short-term thinking. Bozak is extremely unlikely to be re-signed, the team already needs to be working towards resolving the scenarios you've laid out. As others have pointed out, there are plenty short-term injury fill-ins already in the organization; and, should Kadri or Matthews suffer a more significant injury, they're in a bad spot, regardless of whether or not Bozak is on-board. All Bozak does is mitigate some of the damage - and likely not enough to keep them in a position in the standings that's desirable, which really makes the value of keeping him as insurance virtually nil. Basically, from the looks of things, all scenarios point to getting a quality asset like a 1st round pick now being the better option for the team.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Bullfrog on September 15, 2017, 01:34:17 PM
I've grown to really appreciate Bozak. But if someone's offering a late first, I'll go pack his bags for him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 15, 2017, 01:34:50 PM
I was thinking that too, but what does Pittsburgh have at this point to offer up other than late first round picks?

By not trading Bozak by now, the idea that you're going to get substantially more for him than a late first round pick is pretty tenuous.

I get that Bozak isn't going to bring in a truckload.  Ideally, he would be dealt for a close to ready prospect rather than a pick, which is where my previous statement is coming from.  In that case dealing with a team like Nashville would make more sense.  However, I get the whole it takes two scenario when it comes to trades. 

It would be nice for management to make a statement with Bozak and JVR, rather than just leaving the future sort of twisting in the wind.  My fear is that they sign JVR to a long term 6-7 million dollar deal for next season.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 01:43:21 PM
Bozak provides insurance there that might be worth not trading him for a late first round pick.

Maybe, but that's some pretty short-term thinking. Bozak is extremely unlikely to be re-signed, the team already needs to be working towards resolving the scenarios you've laid out. As others have pointed out, there are plenty short-term injury fill-ins already in the organization; and, should Kadri or Matthews suffer a more significant injury, they're in a bad spot, regardless of whether or not Bozak is on-board. All Bozak does is mitigate some of the damage - and likely not enough to keep them in a position in the standings that's desirable, which really makes the value of keeping him as insurance virtually nil. Basically, from the looks of things, all scenarios point to getting a quality asset like a 1st round pick now being the better option for the team.

Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

I think there is too much belief that losing players to UFA is a terrible thing and you should always extract value when you can.   That is entirely true for a team that isn't expected to make the playoffs.  Even for some bubble teams, it probably makes sense.  But, Top-10 team?  Most top-10 teams try and bolster their lineups at the trade deadline- guess what they do- they trade late 1st round picks for players who's deals are about to expire.

The Leafs will NEVER have the depth they have this year.  The big 3, once their entry-level deals expire, are going to command too much cap space and unless UFA's are taking big discounts to come here for a shot at the cup.  Jake Gardiner only has 2 years left on his current deal.  Might as well go for it these next two years.  They aren't mortgaging their future to do so.  I'm not advocating for them to trade their 1st round picks to bolster the lineup at this stage- that would definitely be too short term in thinking. 

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on September 15, 2017, 02:06:52 PM
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 02:39:12 PM
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Crucialness Key on September 15, 2017, 03:20:10 PM
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Zee on September 15, 2017, 03:25:12 PM
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

There you go, every single player on the Leafs is better than Marner. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 03:33:02 PM
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on September 15, 2017, 03:38:22 PM
Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

Honestly, a lot of those numbers really make me question the validity and value of that chart. Gardiner's WAR is like 0.2; Rielly's is somewhere between -0.5 and 0.5 and virtually the same as Marincin's; Marner's is negative, as is Zaitsev's; Hyman's is almost as high as Matthews'. There's too many things that are so obviously not a reflection of reality for it to be used as reasonable support for an argument.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Crucialness Key on September 15, 2017, 03:38:53 PM


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.

Ah, that rascally sample size, mucking things up again.  Thanks for looking into that.  :-)
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on September 15, 2017, 03:45:11 PM
Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 15, 2017, 03:55:46 PM
Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.

Did you just tell me that {Matthews, Nylander, Moore} > {Matthews - Nylander - Bozak}? 
 
In both scenario's Nylander is replacing Kadri when he's injured.  Its a discussion of whether Bozak is replaceable by Moore and I still think you are nuts if you say so.

Also, nevermind the downgrade happening on the right side prior to the injury.  Nobody that would come in and replace Nylander on the right side is up to his level.  Moving Marner into his spot just creates a hole where Marner was.


Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2017, 04:45:57 PM
a)  Dominic Moore is not someone you want playing above the 4th line.

It's not ideal, sure. But I don't think it's a catastrophe.   

b)  Sure, you could try and flip that 1st rounder back to someone else for someone who will be here longer-term.  But, if your long term plan is to play Nylander there then why?  Also, I think that type of move is much easier said than done.

Because you're asset-building. If and when Nylander does eventually transition over to Centre you'd then have a superfluous asset, whether it's Kadri or this hypothetical new #3 C.

c)  Sub-optimal lineup- I don't think the Leafs have that large a margin for getting into the playoffs that they should go sub-optimal.  Especially if we aren't as lucky on the injury front.

I feel like there's sort of an inherent contradiction here. On the one hand, the Leafs are so good they should be doing some short term "How do we maximize our chances at the cup immediately" thinking. On the other, they're so fragile that trading Bozak(an ok #3 C) seriously jeopardizes those plans.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 15, 2017, 04:50:42 PM
I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.

Yeah, so Vegas Odds-makers make odds based not on what they think is likely to happen but based on where they think they can set the line to encourage the most betting without it being a bad investment for sports books. Top 10 worst odds for gamblers does not necessarily equal top 10 team in the league.

In particular a team like the Leafs, with a large and passionate fan base, is more likely to have artificially bad odds in case of a win and then a large payout.

Not to knock anyone's socks off but guys who run Vegas sports books aren't actually, like, the world's biggest authorities on what teams are good at sports.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on September 15, 2017, 06:54:29 PM
Did you just tell me that {Matthews, Nylander, Moore} > {Matthews - Nylander - Bozak}? 
 
In both scenario's Nylander is replacing Kadri when he's injured.  Its a discussion of whether Bozak is replaceable by Moore and I still think you are nuts if you say so.

It's awful fun to completely ignore variables like usage and line mates when comparing players, isn't? And to reframe your argument - which was seemed to be pretty clearly based on having Bozak move into the spot vacated by Matthews or Kadri, not Nylander.

That being said, let's look at Moore vs Bozak for a moment here.

Based on the numbers at hockey-reference.com, last season, Moore put up an even-strength p/60 of 1.45, with an OZS% of 39.5. According to dobberhockey, his most common line mates (in no particular order) at even strength were Riley Nash, Noel Acciari, Jimmy Hayes, and Tim Schiller. Combined, these 4 players put up 38 even-strength points all season.

Meanwhile, Bozak put up an even-strength p/60 of 2.03, with an OZS% of 52.5. According to dobberhockey, his most common line mates - by an extremely wide margin - were JvR and Marner, each of whom had at least 40 even-strength points.

So, yeah, with better zone starts and better line mates - even if it's just one of Marner or JvR - I do think that Moore could equal or surpass the contributions that would Bozak make in the same scenario. He's a better defensive player with a similar face-off proficiency. Boak's offensive numbers are inflated significantly from the PP time that he shouldn't be getting when the Leafs are healthy, and probably shouldn't get in any significant amount even if one of Matthews or Kadri were injured when the team would still have Nylander, Marner, JvR, Marleau, whichever of Matthews/Kadri is healthy in this scenario, plus Kapanen, Brown, and other young guys the Leafs need to use more effectively - and that's assuming they stick to the 4 forward, 1 D PP formation.

Also, nevermind the downgrade happening on the right side prior to the injury.  Nobody that would come in and replace Nylander on the right side is up to his level.  Moving Marner into his spot just creates a hole where Marner was.

I think we'd see pretty quickly that putting Kapanen in that spot would make up a fair bit of that gap - obviously, he's not at Marner's level, but I'm confident he's closer than you seem to be giving him credit for. I actually think the defensive improvements from a JvR-Moore-Kapanen line could mitigate most of - if not all - the offensive drop off from Marner to Kapanen.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Dappleganger on September 15, 2017, 07:45:43 PM
Why not trade Bozak to Montreal where he'd be their number 1 centre?  ;D
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on September 17, 2017, 12:28:28 AM
Why not trade Bozak to Montreal where he'd be their number 1 centre?  ;D

No, they probably should get Moore. 
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: hockeyfan1 on October 27, 2017, 02:26:31 AM
Analytics and analysis:  Breaking down the Leafs' players' penalties both taken & drawn: 

(article a bit dated but still merits a look): http://faceoffcircle.ca/2017/10/17/toronto-maple-leafs-take-draw-penalties-matters/
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: mr grieves on October 27, 2017, 01:18:36 PM
Sort of a follow up on the "how damaging was making the playoffs?" discussion on the GDT, and related to the issue of what to do with the expiring deals (Komarov, JvR, Bozak)....

I think the crucial elements, the core, are in place. The Leafs have got the 4 forwards, 3 defensemen (rather than one stud, alas), and starting goaltender they'll try to contend with. And, compared to the last time the team sniffed the playoffs, I'm pretty confident this core has a lot less wrong with it than that one. The Leafs' ultimate success will hinge on all sorts of stuff -- injuries, luck, etc. -- but, among them, something the management can control: good supporting players and depth.

So the biggest question I've got, from the armchair, is whether the NHL-ready prospects in the system -- let's call em Leivo, Kapanen, Soshnikov, and Johnsson -- can be serviceable, under-$3m/year options in the top-9 for the next 3 or 4 years. If they can be that, the team's good to go (i.e. start contending), even with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and maybe Gardiner set for big raises in the next few years. If they can't, the Leafs are probably looking at Option B:  bring back one or more of the expiring UFAs or filling the hole on the UFA market -- in either case, devoting more dollars to the position than they'd otherwise have to. Option C, of course, is to be a top-heavy, middling team.

Making the playoffs last year and thinking they're close (or winning the draft lottery in '16 and going into win-now mode) has meant we're not getting the chance to see whether any of the RFAs can really excel in a NHL top-9 role. Separate from the asset-management issue of whether it'd be nice to have picks and prospects for JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, by keeping them in the line-up night in and night out to win now, the Leafs going into the crucial "how do you build a deep, talented roster in a cost-effective way with lots of cap committed to a core" phase blind...

Or maybe they're not, and what they're seeing in AHL games and at practice is sufficient for them to know that there are internal replacements for the expiring UFAs, and, even if they don't recoup assets on JvR & c., there's at least going to be cost-controlled top-9 players on the team going forward.

Still, as a fan, I'd like to see that for myself. Unfortunately, Babcock's win-now static lineup means, barring an injury, we won't be able to...

The armchair concern: I worry that the most likely outcome is a bad one -- to wit, either they get attached to/ worry they can't compete without some of the expiring UFAs and sign them to deals that'll make the team less competitive than it ought to be over the long term (option B above) or they end up surprised to find what's in the system can't quite hack it and scramble to fill roster holes, now without the assets they'd've got if they had moved JvR, Bozak, Komarov (option C).

All of which comes down to something folks around here have been saying for a while: (1) trade the soon-to-be UFAs yesterday, (2) see where you get with something like...

Hyman - Matthews - Brown
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Leivo - Kadri -Marner
Martin - Moore - Soshnikov

(I'd wager playoffs, early exit)

And (3) use the assets from Bozak, JvR, and Komarov to (a) keep the prospect pool full or (b) plug the holes that become apparent as the above lineup plays a bunch of games.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: AvroArrow on October 27, 2017, 07:52:05 PM
Given how the defense hasn't gotten any better than last year, I'd look at performing a minor overhaul.  Move Bozak and JvR for futures, demote Borgman and Polak, and target:

Brenden Smith
Alex Petrovic
Brayden McNabb

These guys have been healthy scratches this year, so there's a chance we could pick them up:
http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-a-look-at-early-season-scratches-1.896892

While we're at it, see if the Ilses are interested in moving DeHann for JvR.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: AvroArrow on November 05, 2017, 07:23:41 PM
Gardiner + 1st for Trouba
JvR for DeHann
2nd + Carrick for Petrovic

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
De Hann - Petrovic

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Leivo - Marleau - Marner
Martin - Bozak - Kapanen


I'm thinking the first two deals are overpayments, but I'm trying to overpay instead of underpay (to be realistic instead of a homer).
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Britishbulldog on November 06, 2017, 01:07:47 PM
Gardiner + 1st for Trouba
JvR for DeHann
2nd + Carrick for Petrovic

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
De Hann - Petrovic

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
Leivo - Marleau - Marner
Martin - Bozak - Kapanen


I'm thinking the first two deals are overpayments, but I'm trying to overpay instead of underpay (to be realistic instead of a homer).

I was hoping that we could get Trouba and McNabb.

3 things I feel WPG needs:

SJS 2nd Pick,              Gardiner,                      Soshnikov             for    Trouba
High draft pick, arguably Leafs top Dman and a solid bottom 6 winger for a RHD

Bozak ($2 MIL retained) + Marincin for McNabb

Hyman - Matthews - Nylander
Komarov - Kadri - Brown
JVR - Marleau - Kapanen
Martin - Marner - Leivo

Reilly - Trouba
Hainsey - Zaitsev
McNabb - Carrick

Carrick is fiesty but 5" and 25 lbs lighter than Petrovic.  Not sure how good Petrovic is in comparison to Carrick.   

I was wondering if McNabb could be partnered with Liljegren in the future and Carrick would be traded then.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 07, 2017, 06:31:50 PM

Just trade them JVR already!
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: cabber24 on November 07, 2017, 11:47:48 PM
Jack Johnson for JVR, both on expiring contracts.

Potential targets: Dumba, Bouwmeester,
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: sneakyray on November 13, 2017, 02:22:15 PM
Jack Johnson for JVR, both on expiring contracts.

Potential targets: Dumba, Bouwmeester,

same kind of deal...jvr for green.  not sure how babcock feels about green though
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 13, 2017, 02:27:20 PM
I suspect if they trade JVR for a dman, it'll be someone who can play the PK.

Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on November 13, 2017, 02:37:48 PM
There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 14, 2017, 09:22:46 PM
http://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-forwards-in-high-demand-as-trade-talks-heat-up-1.915674

The market is opening up as teams look to acquire forwards.   Surely there would be a fit there with the Leafs.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 14, 2017, 09:31:37 PM
There have been some suggestions that the Blue Jackets might be open to moving Ryan Murray. While he hasn't quite lived up to his pre-draft hype, he could still be a quality pick up, depending on the price. He coudl definitely work as a part of the 2nd PK unit, and, in the right situation, could show still show some of that potential. At the very least, he's an upgrade on Borgman/Polak/etc.

Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly.  Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 09:36:50 PM
http://www.tsn.ca/insider-trading-forwards-in-high-demand-as-trade-talks-heat-up-1.915674

The market is opening up as teams look to acquire forwards.   Surely there would be a fit there with the Leafs.

(http://www.tsn.ca/polopoly_fs/1.915681!/fileimage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/default/teams-in-the-market-for-forwards.JPG)

Yeah, I was looking at this earlier. Funny thing, a couple of these teams are on this list of their own doing (Edmonton, Florida).

Only Edmonton, St. Louis, and Anaheim are in the West for easier trading. And only Anaheim sort of has defensemen to give, but they're Cap-strapped and also facing a lot of injuries.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: herman on November 14, 2017, 09:47:51 PM
I don't mind throwing a bone to Montreal, who are playing Victor Mete at forward tonight. Gauthier for Mete 1 for 1 should do the trick.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: bustaheims on November 14, 2017, 10:05:37 PM
Looking at his hero charts for the last couple of years, it looks like Polak actually outperforms him slightly.  Depends on what would have to be given up to get him.

It's things like this that make me question the value of those hero charts. Not that Murray has been outstanding or anything, but I just don't buy that he was outperformed by Polak in the real world. I'm all for analytics and all, but I feel like situations like this show the limitations of the current stats in terms of judging and comparing individual players.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 14, 2017, 11:08:48 PM
Here's their charts, for the record:

(http://i129.photobucket.com/albums/p205/CarltonTheBear/Story%201_1.png)

It shows that they're pretty much both bad. I'll take a pass on him. If we wanted to bring Murray back next season he'd need a qualifying offer close to $3mil and you can find better value than that elsewhere.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: CarltonTheBear on November 14, 2017, 11:13:28 PM
Quite frankly if we wanted to improve our 3LD spot the answer is really staring us in the face...


Twitter knew to pop this to the very top of my feed when I opened it even though it was posted 6 hours ago. They really get me.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 15, 2017, 03:10:45 PM
Quite frankly if we wanted to improve our 3LD spot the answer is really staring us in the face...


Twitter knew to pop this to the very top of my feed when I opened it even though it was posted 6 hours ago. They really get me.

Yeah.  Borgman seems to have hit a wall and is starting to struggle.  I hope Marincin comes back up with his confidence back.  We could really use him on the PK- Hainsey and Zaitsev are seeing way too much ice there.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Frank E on November 15, 2017, 04:04:50 PM
You guys are nuts.  Marincin struggles at the NHL level...bad feet.

Ben Smith is another superior AHL player that has big trouble against NHL players.
Title: Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on November 15, 2017, 04:17:28 PM
You guys are nuts.  Marincin struggles at the NHL level...bad feet.

Ben Smith is another superior AHL player that has big trouble against NHL players.

Maybe he meant Travis Dermott?