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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: herman on June 25, 2017, 03:33:02 PM

Title: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 25, 2017, 03:33:02 PM
2017
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
117Timothy Liljegren1999 (D-0)RD6'0"191 lbs
259Eemeli Rasanen1999 (D-0)RD6'7"208 lbs
4110Ian Scott1999 (D-0)G6'3"172 lbs
4124Vladislav Kara1998 (D+1)C/LW6'2"187 lbs
5141Fedor Gordeev1997 (D-0)LD6'6"211 lbs
6172Ryan McGregor1999 (D-0)C6'0"157 lbs
7203Ryan O'Connell1999 (D-0)LD6'1"208 lbs

2016
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
11Auston Matthews1997 (D-0)C6'2"216 lbs
231Yegor Korshkov1996 (D+2)RW6'3"179 lbs
257Carl Grundstrom1997 (D-0)LW6'0"194 lbs
362Joseph Woll1998 (D-0)G6'3"196 lbs
372J.D. Greenway1998 (D-0)LD6'4"205 lbs
492Adam Brooks1996 (D+2)C5'11"176 lbs
4101Keaton Middleton1998 (D-0)LD6'5"234 lbs
5122Vladimir Bobylev1997 (D+1)LW/C6'2"203 lbs
6152Jonathan "Jack" Walker1996 (D+2)LW5'11"179 lbs
6179Nicolas Mattinen1998 (D-0)RD6'4"220 lbs
7182Nikolai Chebykin1997 (D+1)LW/RW6'3"209 lbs

2015
RdPickPlayerYearPositionHeightWeight
14Mitch Marner1997 (D-0)C/RW5'11"163 lbs
234Travis Dermott1996 (D-0)LD5'11"196 lbs
261Jeremy Bracco1997 (D-0)RW/C5'9"172 lbs
365Andrew Nielsen1996 (D-0)LD6'3"207 lbs
368Martins Dzierkals1997 (D-0)LW/RW5'11"170 lbs
495Jesper Lindgren1997 (D-0)RD6'0"161 lbs
5125Dmytro Timashov1996 (D-0)LW/RW5'10"187 lbs
6155Stephen Desrocher1996 (D+1)LD6'4"198 lbs
7185Nikita Korostelev1997 (D-0)LW/RW6'1"194 lbs
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 25, 2017, 03:49:09 PM
Hot takes: Day 1 = Yay! Day 2 = set some check-in reminders for 3 years later. Not as disappointingly weird as last year's draft.

Liljegren: No-brainer pick at this slot, even with the potential red flags that cropped up from coming back too early from mono and trying too hard to impress
Rasanen: Still growing into his frame, but has skills;
Scott: Very raw, and sunk by playing on a bad, bad team, but has the right specs to excel.
Kara: Looks like a good test case of the Russian scouts on staff; his production is ramping up: 0.32 PPG to 0.65 PPG in the MHL in his 19th year.
Gordeev: Quite the story; just started playing defense full time in his draft season; definitely a project, but has wheels and wingspan and some scoring instincts.
McGregor: Held back by his physical size and strength; easy enough to fix.
O'Connell: Coming out of high school is kind of hard to project, but we have a lot of runway with him going into the defensemen factory that is BU.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Bender on June 25, 2017, 03:53:33 PM
I'm hoping Liljegren doesn't turn into a draftee that dropped and went nowhere a la Angelo Esposito or Sean Day.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 25, 2017, 04:31:49 PM
My main concern is the Hunter pattern of drafting giant defensemen with next to zero production in their draft years.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: mr grieves on June 25, 2017, 04:36:02 PM
I'm hoping Liljegren doesn't turn into a draftee that dropped and went nowhere a la Angelo Esposito or Sean Day.

Sent from my SM-G935W8 using Tapatalk

Any examples of draftees who dropped about a dozen spots but shouldn't've come to mind?
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 25, 2017, 04:40:03 PM
Thoughts from others:
https://theleafsnation.com/2017/06/25/in-the-2017-draft-the-leafs-avoided-the-bottleneck-and-amassed-an-island-of-misfit-toys/

Veilette brings up something I saw in last year's draft, but now that it's been repeated, it's definitely deliberate: the Leafs are looking for projects to work on. They're occasionally skipping over players that are already producing in Junior/whatever for prospects with potential that have been hamstrung by circumstance in some fashion. It appears to be part of an effort to round-out their scoring-forward-heavy prospect pool with different elements, leading to longer pipeline time and development attention, and giving the existing pool room to bloom.

Edit: Posted this pre-nap: all picks after the first two rounds are essentially projects, duh. The Leafs are targeting fixable projects.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/06/25/grading-the-toronto-maple-leafs-ohl-selections-in-the-2017-nhl-draft/

Brock Otten goes in-depth on the OHL picks: Rasanen, Gordeev, McGregor.

Gordeev is the one I'll be paying a lot of attention to down the road. He's basically a newborn hockey player considering how little time he has spent playing.

Quote
Even though Gordeev was drafted 82 spots lower than Rasanen, they are actually quite similar prospects who possess similar potential. No question, Rasanen is further along in his development at this point, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that Gordeev could be a diamond in the rough for the Maple Leafs.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 25, 2017, 05:06:40 PM
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 25, 2017, 05:53:00 PM
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

Compare Hunter to Las Vegas' picks this year. Granted our teams are in different situations and mandates.

Apart from no brainer first rounders, I'm not seeing the reasons to give him carte blanche.

Mirtle's latest article indicated that 2015 was very much a Dubas draft, while subsequent ones were more Hunter.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Frank E on June 26, 2017, 11:44:41 AM
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

Compare Hunter to Las Vegas' picks this year. Granted our teams are in different situations and mandates.

Apart from no brainer first rounders, I'm not seeing the reasons to give him carte blanche.

Mirtle's latest article indicated that 2015 was very much a Dubas draft, while subsequent ones were more Hunter.

So, yeah, the jury is still out on Hunter's drafts.

Until they start producing in the NHL and are compared to other players taken in those drafts, there really isn't much to talk about there re Hunter's effectiveness.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2017, 11:52:38 AM
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

I think you're forgetting that Mark Hunter spent a lot of time with the London Knights so he's very familiar with the OHL. That gives him a pretty comfortable leg up on scouts from other teams who may or may not know the OHL exists.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: L K on June 26, 2017, 12:48:20 PM
I certainly hope a bunch of our picks from the past drafts work out, but until we actually see that happen I'm having some trouble understanding the "super scout" label that Mark Hunter's been given. From day 1 we've basically just been told he's a super scout, despite not having any NHL drafting experience, and that we shouldn't question any of the picks he makes.

I think you're forgetting that Mark Hunter spent a lot of time with the London Knights so he's very familiar with the OHL. That gives him a pretty comfortable leg up on scouts from other teams who may or may not know the OHL exists.

And I love the Knights for obvious reasons.  They certainly game the system a bit with US college players that lets them be more cavalier with trades.  The Hunters draft well but also thrive on good forward development more so than picking dominant defensemen.

I don't think any of the Leafs drafts under him have been bad but outside of an obvious selection we haven't seen anyone stand out as a brilliant pick. 

Most of the 2015 picks failed to build on their seasons during their draft year.  The 2016 draft is full of these overage but low ceiling picks.  Nothing really stands out this far as truly great selections.  I like the Korskoff kid from the KHL and Grundstrom had a decent AHL playoff debut.  Nielsen looks like a decent pick from the 2015 draft but al of the other guys will need to step up and show more promise over the next year or two.  None of them really strike me as guys that are NHL ready before 23-24 years old.  Getting mid round picks that contribute quickly to me would be the indication of exceptional scouting.  I think we can be happy with Mark but in no way declare him great as of yet.

And before we get into it, no, he's a pro does not automatically make him a better draft selector.  Bad GMs exist everywhere so results are the only thing that defines success as a scout/draft specialist.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2017, 01:10:08 PM

Trying to grade a draft a day or two later is obviously a sucker's game but I will say that what they did this year, drafting defensemen with upside, at least makes sense to me in a way their strategy last year of drafting nondescript overage forwards didn't.

Obviously after banging the drum all year about what Nashville did last year at the draft I might have preferred an even heavier leaning into the smaller puck moving guys but that's hair splitting in a year where there weren't a ton of those options available.

I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 26, 2017, 01:18:41 PM
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 26, 2017, 01:26:49 PM
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

But, that said, it seems like the late 4th round is the time to take those sorts of gambles as opposed to, say, the first pick of the 2nd round.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 26, 2017, 01:34:41 PM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2017/6/26/15869178/mark-hunters-large-adult-sons-toronto-maple-leafs-big-defenders-rasanen-middleton-nielsen-gordeev

PPP tries to make some sense of the questions I have about our 2-7 Rd picking strategy. If even one of them pans out into a Character or Parayko it's probably worth it, but I don't know how likely that will be, if it outweighs having a DeBrincat or Kylington, or Girard in the long run. Right now, with our top heavy and very young offence, it won't hurt anytime soon. Would be nice to have trade bait though.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 26, 2017, 01:37:22 PM
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=322627

It's not terrible. A pretty substantial jump up from his draft season. Probably could've saved this pick for the 7th though.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 26, 2017, 02:00:28 PM
Chayka remarked about his draft that he was aiming for market needs, rather than team needs outside the first two rounds, deliberately going for the best C or RHD on the board to hoard value down the line.

If I'm giving Hunter the benefit of the doubt here, I'd say he was cornering a market for (really) big defensive defensemen. If he can get them to skate and hold gaps, that's pretty expensive to trade for.

I do like that Hunter is giving his scouts some spotlight picks: Gordeev from Hofford, Kara from Vuori/Ladygin/Namestnikov...
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 26, 2017, 02:11:30 PM
I do like that Hunter is giving his scouts some spotlight picks: Gordeev from Hofford, Kara from Vuori/Ladygin/Namestnikov...

Pretty boss move there. Now he can blame them when they don't pan out.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 26, 2017, 02:32:07 PM
I do like that Hunter is giving his scouts some spotlight picks: Gordeev from Hofford, Kara from Vuori/Ladygin/Namestnikov...

Pretty boss move there. Now he can blame them when they don't pan out.

That's the plan.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 26, 2017, 03:00:14 PM
http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2017/06/26/2017-draft-notebook-trends-analysis-thoughts-toronto-maple-leafs-strategy/
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Highlander on June 26, 2017, 09:12:11 PM

Trying to grade a draft a day or two later is obviously a sucker's game but I will say that what they did this year, drafting defensemen with upside, at least makes sense to me in a way their strategy last year of drafting nondescript overage forwards didn't.

Obviously after banging the drum all year about what Nashville did last year at the draft I might have preferred an even heavier leaning into the smaller puck moving guys but that's hair splitting in a year where there weren't a ton of those options available.

I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.
That may be a bit of over inflated self indulgence, don't ya think Nik?
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 27, 2017, 09:22:55 PM
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=322627

It's not terrible. A pretty substantial jump up from his draft season. Probably could've saved this pick for the 7th though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6bzvuBnJWY

These are just his offensive plays, but the skills and drive and opportunistic streak are clear. If he plays defense even half as well, he'd be the player I hoped Soshnikov (and Komarov) would become (grind, pass, and shoot). The slot play, tips, and garbage cleanup looks like it can carry over. Blind wristers from the blue line probably won't. Good snapper, strong wrister (but will need to speed up or make more deceptive the release), moves around the ice pretty easily.

Similar profile to Korshkov, Grundstrom, with a slightly different flavour. Reminds me of a 1/3 skilled Matthews actually.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: KadriFan on June 28, 2017, 06:19:22 AM
I feel like the overage Russian drafted in the 4th round was specifically targeted to troll me.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=205476

Never a good sign.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=322627

It's not terrible. A pretty substantial jump up from his draft season. Probably could've saved this pick for the 7th though.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j6bzvuBnJWY

These are just his offensive plays, but the skills and drive and opportunistic streak are clear. If he plays defense even half as well, he'd be the player I hoped Soshnikov (and Komarov) would become (grind, pass, and shoot). The slot play, tips, and garbage cleanup looks like it can carry over. Blind wristers from the blue line probably won't. Good snapper, strong wrister (but will need to speed up or make more deceptive the release), moves around the ice pretty easily.

Similar profile to Korshkov, Grundstrom, with a slightly different flavour. Reminds me of a 1/3 skilled Matthews actually.

Looks good.  Wow, the stands look pretty empty. 
Title: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 28, 2017, 07:34:35 AM
I dunno. It's hard tell much when he's loping around such big ice with all kinds of time and space that he won't get over here. But that's what low picks are for , to take a bit of a chance.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 28, 2017, 07:48:15 AM
Wow is that ever a bad league.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 29, 2017, 11:54:47 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/6/29/15872622/toronto-maple-leafs-draft-pick-prospect-a-deeper-look-at-eemeli-rasanen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dc7ryu_3S00 - a penalty and fight he took for being big.

Rasanen's growth outpaced his strength, but I think he'll catch back up in the next two years. Skating has already improved from the previous season, and will only improve with added strength.

Highlights video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAboQukUWQE
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 29, 2017, 12:09:00 PM
Fedor Gordeev highlights:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-DqxTdJvEs

This is a very very mobile 6'6", and he's actually got the hands to pull off the moves that Gauthier dreams of.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: Highlander on June 30, 2017, 02:42:49 PM
Funny but I have a better feeling of this dude than the 2nd round pick.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 30, 2017, 02:57:45 PM
Funny but I have a better feeling of this dude than the 2nd round pick.

Very different players, Gordeev is a pretty good skating winger who is learning to play defense. Rasanen is a limited skater who is a tank defensively if you could combine the two you'd have an all world prospect.

It'll come down to who can fill out their game, but I get the sense both are infinitely more promising that Middleton and Mattinen from the year before.

Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on June 30, 2017, 03:28:32 PM
Funny but I have a better feeling of this dude than the 2nd round pick.

Very different players, Gordeev is a pretty good skating winger who is learning to play defense. Rasanen is a limited skater who is a tank defensively if you could combine the two you'd have an all world prospect.

It'll come down to who can fill out their game, but I get the sense both are infinitely more promising that Middleton and Mattinen from the year before.

Absolutely better bets than Middleton/Mattinen (who both improved, but that's not a high hurdle).

As WIGWAL pointed out, they're both projects approaching a similar target from different ends, but they have nearly the same physical profile.

They're both super tall with huge wingspans, which is what Hunter appears to be going for with picks like Nielsen, Desrocher, JD Greenway, and the aforementioned Middleton and Mattinen.

Rasanen sprouted up rather quickly and is still adjusting to his new size. His strength, especially lower half, hasn't caught up yet, but eventually it will. His skating technique will need improvement and adjustment as a result (he falls a lot), but his defensive instincts and skills are there. The Finnish hockey style is probably the closest of the European hockey styles to North America's.

Gordeev is pretty much a newb to playing full time defense, also sorting out new size issues and figuring out his limits. Fortunately, he already skates very well and with added strength could be really hard to deal with. He has the offensive instincts from his time as a forward (a la Gardiner), but needs to work on his defense reads, gap control, pivots, positioning, etc.

If they both max out their potential, we could be looking at players bordering on Parayko, or Franson with speed/physicality. They'll be given pretty long leashes to develop alongside Nielsen (who also needs skating and defensive instinct coaching).
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on July 03, 2017, 09:52:44 PM
Who dis?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/3/15892606/toronto-maple-leafs-2017-nhl-entry-draft-fourth-round-pick-goalie-prospect-ian-scott

Quote
Scott has the same wingspan as Eemeli Räsänen, except he’s four inches shorter. He also scored very well in the vertical jump and the standing long jump, both events that goalies often do well in. The wingspan is key, however. There were at least eight goalies in the top 25 at this year’s combine. Reach matters, and most of the drafted goalies were disproportionately long-limbed compared to the skaters.

Lol whut?
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: AvroArrow on July 03, 2017, 10:05:46 PM
Who dis?

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/3/15892606/toronto-maple-leafs-2017-nhl-entry-draft-fourth-round-pick-goalie-prospect-ian-scott

Quote
Scott has the same wingspan as Eemeli Räsänen, except he’s four inches shorter. He also scored very well in the vertical jump and the standing long jump, both events that goalies often do well in. The wingspan is key, however. There were at least eight goalies in the top 25 at this year’s combine. Reach matters, and most of the drafted goalies were disproportionately long-limbed compared to the skaters.

Lol whut?

Some people simply have longer arms than others.  I knew a guy in university who was like that.
Title: Re: 2017 Draft Review
Post by: herman on July 24, 2017, 10:48:11 AM
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2017/7/24/16019302/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects-summer-is-too-long-but-there-is-still-hockey-to-watch

Eemeli Rasanen has a couple of WJSS games with Finland. One starts today at 11:30 EDT, with another one tomorrow. Stream (https://livestream.com/leijonat/u20fincze2017)!