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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: mr grieves on November 03, 2016, 12:04:30 PM

Title: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 03, 2016, 12:04:30 PM
Yes, I think, they are.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-10>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Current On PaceProj.vs. 2015-16
SF 343 (1st) 2,813 (1st) n/a 2,517 (6th)
SCF 93 (2nd)  763 (1st)n/a 498 (19th)
Sh%8.5% (20) 8.5% (24)8.8% (15) 7.6% (30)
GF29 (10th) 238 (4th)248 (3rd)198 (28th)
SA318 (25th)2,608 (28)n/a2,501 (21)
SCA78 (24th)640 (29)n/a504 (13)
Sv%.887 (26).887 (30).908 (15).904 (23rd)
GA........37 (28th)......287 (30)....... 240 (24)......246 (24th)......

Messed up the table, so one line is missing. Goal differential:
Current: -8 (25th) => Pace: -49 (29th) => Proj: +8 (16th) => 15/16: -49 (29th)

Pace assumes the percentages (shooting, saving) don't change while Projected assumes they settle at league average (15th ranked team last year). SCF and SCA are 5v5, but otherwise the stats are 'all situations.'

Think I might do this every ten games or so to see how the team's coming along.

===
UPDATED: to include games 11-20 in the pace & projections...

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
..................Current...............Pace...................Projected............vs. 2015-16........
SF679 (4th)2,651 (1st)n/a2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF183 (1st)715 (1st)n/a498 (19th)
Sh%9.7% (7th)9.7% (6th)8.8% (avg)7.6% (30th)
GF66 (T-3rd)258 (2nd)233 (7th)191 (28th)
SA698 (29th)2,726 (30th)n/a2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA165 (29th)644 (29th)n/a504 (13th)
Sv%.904 (22nd).904 (23rd).908 (avg).904 (23rd)
GA66 (27th)262 (30th)251 (29th)240 (24th)
DIFF.-1 (14th)-4 (17th)-17 (20th)-49 (29th)
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on November 03, 2016, 12:43:48 PM
I've been subtly trying to beat this drum too, I think they're going to be a bubble team this year.

The injection of talent they've had this season is unprecedented, it's unlike any other team transformation I can remember from one season to the next.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Kaberle15 on November 03, 2016, 12:58:01 PM
In other years (or GM/Coach) they would be Faithfull to the Vets like Laich, Greening, Michalek... The way they demoted than all to keep the youth playing was unprecedented.

Some few adjusts left yet, but overall on the right track... and as the Kids adapt to the pace of the NHL, a bottom 5 is expected, anything other than that would be a very good surprise.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 03, 2016, 01:12:36 PM
Except, based on how they've started, I don't think a bottom 5 is very likely.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on November 03, 2016, 01:18:23 PM

I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: No.92 on November 03, 2016, 01:20:07 PM
It's a new era!  It's exciting!
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 03, 2016, 01:34:21 PM
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on November 03, 2016, 01:50:48 PM
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Coco-puffs on November 03, 2016, 02:05:49 PM
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Wait, are you saying the rookies will hit a wall?  Has Matthews already hit the wall?  ;D
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 03, 2016, 02:09:35 PM
I tend to think that the defensive struggles they've shown are probably more legit than the high level offense so far but that's very much a wait and see sort of thing.

I think the defensive woes are real, but I'd be more suspicious of the high level offense if they were getting a lot of shooting luck. On the whole, they haven't been.

I'm not saying the offense is the result of an inordinate amount of luck. I'm saying, and I'm willing to accept I could be wrong about this, that I don't think they're going to be able to maintain this level of legitimately strong play.

Yeah, they're way out ahead -- with the best in the league and on pace for a remarkable number of shots and chances -- in terms of shots and chances for, and I'd imagine the rest of the league will soon tighten up, pushing that down. I expect they'll fall, and am curious to see how far...

I also expect they'll improve a bit at defense -- with a terrible roster, Babcock got the 15-16 team to be perfectly mediocre at limiting chances against -- so that might mitigate the decline in offense.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: McGarnagle on November 03, 2016, 02:21:12 PM
I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat. On the optimistic side, the depth of that talent on the roster is such that you can have a bunch of these players "take the night off" so to speak, and there's still talent there that can make a difference. That's definitely new since the lockout.

Defensive zone coverage and the D in general are bottom of the league weak, and I don't expect that to change much, barring a trade. There's been some serious fire drills in the leafs defensive end, and it'll take more than coaching to eliminate that this season I would think.

Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on November 03, 2016, 02:27:05 PM
I think the reason for pessimism up front, is that over the grind of the schedule, you'd expect some of the younger players to come back down to earth somewhat.

Just to clear it up though, this is only half of the story. Right now Matthews and Nylander, playing together have a CF/60 of 78.95. Alex Ovechkin, in the year where he scored 65 goals, was at 66.40. So it's not "I expect the young guys to come down a bit" but rather that I'd expect anyone to come down a bit. The idea that they're young and might hit a significant wall...that's what might explain them cooling off a lot.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on November 03, 2016, 09:45:03 PM
While it's nice that they've won the last couple games, if the way they've played in those contests becomes a trend, a lot of those positive looking numbers are going to go south in a hurry.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 07, 2016, 05:27:34 PM
Looks like they got things back on track against the Canucks.

Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: hockeyfan1 on November 08, 2016, 03:28:53 AM
While it's expected that the team may go in a slump every now and then, no one would be expecting the young Leafs to "hit a wall" significantly or even for a prolonged period of time,  Somehow with all of the talent the team carries now, to have one or two of these players In a funk for too long doesn't seem plausible, not when there's others to take up the slack.

Then again, who knows, anything can happen.  It's good to remain optimistic, as the air around the Leafs these days is nothing but that, optimism.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Tigger on November 08, 2016, 05:23:47 AM
I don't think we really know what this team is yet but I don't think it's unfair to say that hoping 7 rookies have successful 82 game seasons might be a bit out there.

Given that, I think it looks good for the big 3, all with good shot totals, 2 of 3 with good power play production and none with overwhelming toi.

Zaitsev looks fantastic early, could shoot more but has played a ton.

Hyman, probably not a lot more there, a good energy player. Sosh needs to prove he can stay healthy and Brown has had a mixed bag with linemates so it's more difficult to get a bead on him, but he's a smart player who's skating doesn't seem to be an issue anymore.

Some good reasons to remain optimistic, a great starting point for the rebuild.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: caveman on November 10, 2016, 06:24:44 PM
I would like to see Babcock do a bit more line juggling like the last game...maybe JVR on the Matthews line.... and Soshnikov up with Bozak...Uncle Leo and Hyman could do some time on the 3rd and 4th lines...
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on November 10, 2016, 07:20:57 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/whats-behind-rangers-surprisingly-exciting-style-play/

Let's do something like this. Please.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on November 10, 2016, 09:28:02 PM
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/whats-behind-rangers-surprisingly-exciting-style-play/

Let's do something like this. Please.

Mirtle agrees

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/time-to-experiment-with-the-toronto-maple-leafs-roster/article32778416/
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on November 11, 2016, 09:34:37 AM
This was interesting for me because it's another line to file under the "Leafs don't actually care about the scoreboard result this season" category.

But we've also heard that Babcock's aiming for 6 points every 5 games (~98 point pace?).

I pulled this from the Kings GDT because I forgot to reply and it actually fits better here.

Babcock's challenge of 6 pts in 5 games is just a motivational goal. I think we're easily 7 pts in 5 when the team hits its stride in the next few years.

The decision to ice Hunwick, Martin, Polak, Smith speak much louder towards angling the Leafs for development-like results. It's the exact template they applied to the Marlies last season (go young, but bring in some classy pseudo-goons).

I can't remember who noted this first, but Polak has been shadowing Matthews-Nylander since he got into the lineup (and you wonder why they're in an even strength scoring drought? See all the plays that die on the sticks of Polak and Hyman  :( ). Because Babcock needs to play Polak to 'deter' untoward behaviour towards Mattlander (thanks to UFA coup Martin turning out to be not at all good enough), he also needs to saddle Gardiner on Polak's line because Rielly's on matchup with Kadri, and Marincin/Hunwick are lolz.

Prior to the season starting, Lou also said this camp was a bit of a special one for the rookies because, and this was implied, they were taking on more rookies than they will normally consider in the future with an established core. Year 0 of the Build, so to speak. Brown and Soshnikov, who are both waiver exempt, make the team at the expense of Laich, Michalek, Greening, to show they are serious about a meritocracy (except for the muckers?). This is a long-view decision for the future, not a we're winning this season decision (to be fair, keeping Laich, Michalek, Greening would've been a more bald-faced tank move).

You can see the long-view in every Babcock post-game conference so far too. He is steamed about losing, but every word is about the process, and doing the details right the next time, and reinforcing that every player is growing. He's literally talking about Corsi/Fenwick and PDO, just without using the terms.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on November 27, 2016, 03:52:25 PM
Updated the OP to include the chart to include the next ten-game chunk.


<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<GAMES 1-20>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
..................Current...............Pace...................Projected............vs. 2015-16........
SF679 (4th)2,651 (1st)n/a2,517 (6th)
5v5 SCF183 (1st)715 (1st)n/a498 (19th)
Sh%9.7% (7th)9.7% (6th)8.8% (avg)7.6% (30th)
GF66 (T-3rd)258 (2nd)233 (7th)191 (28th)
SA698 (29th)2,726 (30th)n/a2,501 (21st)
5v5 SCA165 (29th)644 (29th)n/a504 (13th)
Sv%.904 (22nd).904 (23rd).908 (avg).904 (23rd)
GA66 (27th)262 (30th)251 (29th)240 (24th)
DIFF.-1 (14th)-4 (17th)-17 (20th)-49 (29th)

Compared to the first ten games...

So... offensive play isn't quite holding up, but the better than league average shooting is compensating for now. At the same time, defensive play isn't improving, but goaltending is rebounding to where it should be.

They remain a playoff bubble team, I think.

 
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on December 29, 2016, 10:41:51 PM
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on December 29, 2016, 10:44:48 PM

Yeah, it seems more likely that the Leafs have two Calder finalists.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on December 29, 2016, 10:46:14 PM
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on December 30, 2016, 07:03:46 AM
Auston Matthews: Calder finalist
Frederik Andersen: Vezina finalist
Nazem Kadri: Selke finalist
Mike Babcock: Jack Adams finalist

... not out of the realm of possibility.
Selke conversation for Kadri is a bit aggressive.

Yeah, I just looked at goalies. There's a tonne of good ones out there. Naz is a poor man's Selke finalist then. Auston has a shot and if we make the playoffs Babs deserves a look.
Kadri isn't even the best defensive forward on the Leafs let alone the league. I know he's done well in his new shutdown role but c'mon.

With respect to Calder, like Nik said Leafs might have two finalists, but as it's going now I think it's more likely the finalists are Matthews, Laine and Werenski. There's still a lot of season to go though.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on January 04, 2017, 03:11:00 PM
Just looking at the Eastern Conference goal differentials:

1. Columbus +52
2. NY Rangers +35
3. Montreal + 28
4. Pittsburgh + 26
5. Washington +22
6. Toronto + 4
7. Tampa Bay +2
8. Boston - 2
9. Philadelphia - 4
10. Ottawa - 4

Wins and goal-differential line up a lot closer than they ever have before, now that every team spends pretty much the same $72-million in payroll. We can skate with everyone on that list, as evidenced by our competitive games against them, and I'd say only the top five are clearly better teams than us right now. Remarkable considering we're only one year removed from complete basement dwelling. That's the salary-cap era.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: freer on January 04, 2017, 07:28:15 PM
One or two small pieces to be an excellent team.. IMO they can now be a playoff team.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on February 07, 2017, 10:33:32 PM
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It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 08, 2017, 08:27:25 AM
It's my understanding that the division winners play the wild card winners and the 2/3 in each division play each other. Is that correct?

So starting tomorrow it would be:

Washington vs Philadelphia
Montreal vs NY Rangers
Columbus vs Pittsburgh
Ottawa vs Toronto

Leafs will benefit from a weak Atlantic this year. Tampa and Florida should be there by now and they're not. Finishing second wild card means you get obliterated by Washington. Metro 2 vs 3 is crazy. Either Stanley Cup Champions or Record-Setter (almost) for straight wins is out first round.

It's also funny to think that an Atlantic team is better off finishing 2nd or 3rd as opposed to 1st. Gets you an easier first round opponent.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 08, 2017, 08:32:07 AM

Crazy to think that even with a middling shootout record the Leafs would really be in the running for the #1 spot in the division.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on February 08, 2017, 08:34:10 AM
There are 30 games left, and I'm actually starting to believe this is a playoff team.  Will I be disappointed?
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on February 19, 2017, 12:41:51 PM
There are 30 games left, and I'm actually starting to believe this is a playoff team.  Will I be disappointed?

Unless Andersen heats up, I think so.

They've got the talent needed to win, but, as has become the theme on the boards this season, they don't have the defense (whether play or personnel) to close games out. Much less discussed but I think the bigger problem is their slow starts, since they're incapable of battling back and winning. They've given away way too many points before the first intermission.

I don't know whether that's a result of them being deflated by a bad goal (or two), playing tentatively after some terrible defensive breakdowns, or some of strange decisions made by the coach (Smith on ice when chasing game), or a combination of those and other reasons... but they don't seem able to win if they (Matthews?) don't surprise their opponent and get a few on the board.

So, I've gone from 60-40 they make it to 60-40 they don't. 

Blown second-period leads
Games with 2P leads: 29 (51% GP; 3rd in league; peers: WSH, MIN, SJS)
Record: 21-1-7 (.724 W%; 26th in league; peers: DAL, PHI, DET)
Points "lost"* by blowing 2P leads: 9 (27th; peers: MIN, DET, CAR)
(*points lost = 2P leads x 2 - 2P W x 2 - 2P OTL)

Blown first periods
Games trailing after 1P: 18 (32% GP; 13th in league; peers: STL, EDM, PIT)
Record: 1-14-3 (.056 W%; 30th in league; peer: ANA, COL, MTL)
Points "lost"* after falling behind in 1P: 31 (26th; peers: WPG, VAN, DET)
(*points lost = 1P trailing x 2 - 1P W x 2 - 1P OTL)
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on February 19, 2017, 12:54:39 PM
Some of this blown-ness is on Babcock.  Or, more specifically, on management.  They are not managing the team in such a way as to maximize their chances of getting in this year.  Which is just as it should be.

As I noted in last night's GDT I hope they start selling off assets, at least 1 or 2 at the deadline, to send an unmistakable signal that just getting into the playoffs this year is not really the point.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on February 19, 2017, 01:19:24 PM
I'm perfectly happy to tolerate that contribution to blown-ness. But there are plenty of line-up decisions that are contributing to it and probably not helping in the cause of inflating assets either. I don't think the two things are always mutually exclusive.

For example, giving Hunwick and Polak time off on the back-to-backs would probably increase the team's chances of winning those games and keep those two fresh (I think some of their best performances have come after being scratched or injured). Along the same lines, they'd look better as penalty killers if one of the regular forwards on the PK wasn't worst in the league at suppressing shots; the team would also be more likely to win games.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: RedLeaf on February 19, 2017, 02:33:40 PM
Here were my thoughts after last nights game. I think its appropriate to repost in this thread...

If they do continue on this current tail spin leading up to the trade deadline, I wonder if it changes the whole approach for the remainder of this season? Maybe the tank toggle gets switched back on and they wind up with another decent pick from it. Next season they could possibly start out a year wiser and hopefully a gear faster. And likely with more defensive punch. That would be my takeaway from what could be another losing season, should they slip down any further in the standings and miss out on the post season again. Its really not all doom and gloom, no matter how it shakes out this year.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on February 24, 2017, 02:51:32 AM
The fight to not get obliterated by Washington in the first round :P
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on February 24, 2017, 08:53:43 AM
The fight to not get obliterated by Washington in the first round :P

Eh, Washington is a huge favorite over whomever they face, but in hockey we all know a hot goalie can steal a series no matter the odds.  I'll never forget an average Habs team beating heavy favorites Washington and Pittsburgh because Halak played out of his mind.  You still have to play the games.  Washington also has that stigma of being a fantastic regular season team and then choking in the playoffs.  Sure it's a different team, but sometimes stuff like that gets into the players heads that have been around awhile.  Ovechkin/Backstrom the two most likely.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on March 19, 2017, 08:57:55 PM
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on March 21, 2017, 12:24:12 AM
Fun fact: the Leafs are tied 6th in the League for regulation losses with 23. Trailing only Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago and Minnesota. This team is competitive and takes it deep almost every game. And O/T in the playoffs is unlimited 5-on-5...
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on March 21, 2017, 08:41:34 AM
Fun fact: the Leafs are tied 6th in the League for regulation losses with 23. Trailing only Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago and Minnesota. This team is competitive and takes it deep almost every game. And O/T in the playoffs is unlimited 5-on-5...

15 losses in OT/SO though, man if they had only managed just to win half of those, say 7, the Leafs would be sitting with 88 points, just 2 off the division lead.

Edit: that's actually the difference between Habs and Leafs.  Habs only have 8 OT/SO losses.  They would have an identical record if Leafs had won 7 of those 15.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on March 21, 2017, 09:41:49 AM
Fun fact: the Leafs are tied 6th in the League for regulation losses with 23. Trailing only Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Chicago and Minnesota. This team is competitive and takes it deep almost every game. And O/T in the playoffs is unlimited 5-on-5...

Not having to deal with the shootout is definitely a bonus. Not sure about the 5-on-5 OT - the Leafs are 6-7 in OT in this year, and haven't been great late in games (the 3rd period has been their worst in terms of both goals for and against). They have a better chance in the playoff format, but - and this feels like stating the obvious, as well as something that applies to all teams - they're much better off avoiding OT altogether.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on April 18, 2017, 12:20:37 PM
There'll be time to step back from the thrill of the playoffs later, but I wanted to leave this here, before I forget where I found it.

Quote
"I think Toronto right now is the third-most talented team in the East," the coach said Sunday over the phone. "Now, they're young, but who cares? That was a tough draw for Washington. Outside of Pittsburgh and Washington, to me the Leafs are the third-most talented group in the East. Their D aren't great, but they're all good skaters and they can gap well the way [coach Mike Babcock] likes to gap. As a forward group, boy, I would put them up with anybody. They can go depth for depth up front with Washington. They're one of the few teams that can go line for line with Washington.

"I know when we played them, I thought Toronto was a matchup nightmare because you couldn't match them line for line," added the Eastern coach. "So, to me, what's happened so far in that series of how representative of how close they are. I expect the Leafs to be an Eastern Conference final team a year from now."
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on April 18, 2017, 12:24:28 PM
There'll be time to step back from the thrill of the playoffs later, but I wanted to leave this here, before I forget where I found it.

Quote
"I think Toronto right now is the third-most talented team in the East," the coach said Sunday over the phone. "Now, they're young, but who cares? That was a tough draw for Washington. Outside of Pittsburgh and Washington, to me the Leafs are the third-most talented group in the East. Their D aren't great, but they're all good skaters and they can gap well the way [coach Mike Babcock] likes to gap. As a forward group, boy, I would put them up with anybody. They can go depth for depth up front with Washington. They're one of the few teams that can go line for line with Washington.

"I know when we played them, I thought Toronto was a matchup nightmare because you couldn't match them line for line," added the Eastern coach. "So, to me, what's happened so far in that series of how representative of how close they are. I expect the Leafs to be an Eastern Conference final team a year from now."

From here: http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/19172226/2017-stanley-cup-playoffs-secret-toronto-maple-leafs-success
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 18, 2017, 12:35:01 PM
That clanging sound you hear is the sound of sophomore slump alarm bells going off....
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: mr grieves on April 18, 2017, 01:53:35 PM
That clanging sound you hear is the sound of sophomore slump alarm bells going off....

I'd guess most are the result of playing against tougher competition in the second year or a season of shooting luck regressing to the mean. Brown probably doesn't score 20 next season, but a lot of the rest looks pretty solid.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Highlander on April 18, 2017, 05:52:42 PM
There'll be time to step back from the thrill of the playoffs later, but I wanted to leave this here, before I forget where I found it.

Quote
"I think Toronto right now is the third-most talented team in the East," the coach said Sunday over the phone. "Now, they're young, but who cares? That was a tough draw for Washington. Outside of Pittsburgh and Washington, to me the Leafs are the third-most talented group in the East. Their D aren't great, but they're all good skaters and they can gap well the way [coach Mike Babcock] likes to gap. As a forward group, boy, I would put them up with anybody. They can go depth for depth up front with Washington. They're one of the few teams that can go line for line with Washington.

"I know when we played them, I thought Toronto was a matchup nightmare because you couldn't match them line for line," added the Eastern coach. "So, to me, what's happened so far in that series of how representative of how close they are. I expect the Leafs to be an Eastern Conference final team a year from now."

From here: http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/19172226/2017-stanley-cup-playoffs-secret-toronto-maple-leafs-success
Thanks Herman, that is a great and exciting read.  Speed Kills!!
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on April 19, 2017, 08:48:49 AM
Thanks Herman, that is a great and exciting read.  Speed Kills!!

We're heading in a great direction, but there are still many steps to take, and we must continue to adjust course as the game changes. We haven't won anything just yet, but I'm very glad to be watching this unfold with you and everyone here.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on April 19, 2017, 08:49:35 AM
IF the Leafs win tonight....oh man....
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: AvroArrow on April 22, 2017, 12:16:45 PM
Small sample size, but Matthews, Nylander and Marner all with 4 points in 5 playoff games.  Bodes very well for us.

Edit: add Reilly to that same list.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on April 22, 2017, 01:35:41 PM
They've been our most dangerous line as the series has gone on. And Trotz knows it.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 22, 2017, 04:03:40 PM
Small sample size, but Matthews, Nylander and Marner all with 4 points in 5 playoff games.  Bodes very well for us.

Edit: add Reilly to that same list.

Including Marner on that list seems like less of an issue of sample size and more of a case of taking the wrong lessons from an assist or two. Two of Marner's points came from assists in game 4 where he was generally not good at all for the game and, broadly, he hasn't been good in the series.

Matthews and Nylander though, I agree, have looked good.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 22, 2017, 08:23:25 PM
Marner hasn't been great but 4 points in 5 games is all right. I do agree with the proposition that he's hit a wall. His lack of size is finally being exposed against this particular team.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 22, 2017, 08:41:06 PM
Marner hasn't been great but 4 points in 5 games is all right.

Well, except if those points aren't indicative of play it's a meaningless measurement. He got an assist in game four because he passed it back to the point before Gardiner passed it to JVR who put it in off a skate.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 22, 2017, 11:25:00 PM
Marner hasn't been great but 4 points in 5 games is all right.

Well, except if those points aren't indicative of play it's a meaningless measurement. He got an assist in game four because he passed it back to the point before Gardiner passed it to JVR who put it in off a skate.

No, not entirely meaningless.  It's way better than his having no points at all, for example.  Even a cheap 2nd means he's involved in a scoring play.  But yes, if someone were to just put it up against Nylander and Matthews' point totals and use that to say he's played as well as they have, then of course that's false.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 22, 2017, 11:33:33 PM
No, not entirely meaningless.  It's way better than his having no points at all, for example.

Right, but it's not as good as if he had less points but had played well. Being the third last guy to touch the puck before it goes in the net doesn't have inherent value.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on April 22, 2017, 11:55:41 PM
No, not entirely meaningless.  It's way better than his having no points at all, for example.

Right, but it's not as good as if he had less points but had played well. Being the third last guy to touch the puck before it goes in the net doesn't have inherent value.

I mean, we are agreeing here, I think: points as a metric have obvious value because they are the name of the game, but where they fall short is in measuring the not-so-obvious factors that influence the game's outcome.

Anyway, I predict Marner busts out in Game 6 and helps send it to 7.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Nik the Trik on April 23, 2017, 01:03:21 AM
I mean, we are agreeing here, I think: points as a metric have obvious value because they are the name of the game, but where they fall short is in measuring the not-so-obvious factors that influence the game's outcome.

Well, no. Points have a sort of value in the aggregate because you can't realistically fluke your way to a 60 or 70 point season. Individually, though, points or even goals can mean nothing. In the most extreme example a player can be credited with a goal for losing a faceoff and never touching the puck.

A player can have a multiple point game and have contributed nothing of real value or even have played poorly. In that sort of scenario I don't think scoring those points is better than not scoring them because I think the contribution to the outcome of the game is the same.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on April 23, 2017, 11:50:31 PM
Class. Caps are battle-hardened, could be their year.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: hockeyfan1 on April 24, 2017, 03:23:52 AM
I've always liked the Washington Capitals from their inception.  Still remember those Mike Gartner slapshots back in those days.

If there is one team that I choose to win this year's Cup, it's Washington.  That of course is a big if...they beat Crosby's Penguins first.

Classy coach.  Classy organization.  The Maple Leafs should be standing with their heads held high for having taken the NHL's #1 team nearly to the brink.

We as Leafs fans are so proud of our team for showcasing the best the game has to offer against one of the game's best.

Wow, what a ride!  :) :)

THE MAPLE LEAFS FOREVER!!
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on June 05, 2017, 01:47:09 PM
Great comparison here from when the Hawks, Pens and Kings went from rags to riches.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on June 05, 2017, 01:58:28 PM
Great comparison here from when the Hawks, Pens and Kings went from rags to riches.

I drank the Burkean koolaid once.  But I'm no longer thirsty.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zee on June 05, 2017, 02:50:03 PM
Great comparison here from when the Hawks, Pens and Kings went from rags to riches.

I drank the Burkean koolaid once.  But I'm no longer thirsty.

I sure hope he's right.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Frank E on June 05, 2017, 05:03:28 PM
A year ago, we were advocating having a bunch of cap space to take on overpaid garbage to get the accompanying picks...why isn't that the plan anymore?
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 05, 2017, 05:36:43 PM
A year ago, we were advocating having a bunch of cap space to take on overpaid garbage to get the accompanying picks...why isn't that the plan anymore?

I'd say it's a combination of the performance of the team, not having that cap space - partly due to the cap not growing and partly to the team not having moved many contracts - and, not wanting to saddle the team with a significant bonus overage penalty moving forward.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: herman on June 05, 2017, 05:45:34 PM
Three rookies hitting Jack Eichel+ numbers all at once, first tier vets having career years is a lot to process.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Frank E on June 05, 2017, 05:52:39 PM
A year ago, we were advocating having a bunch of cap space to take on overpaid garbage to get the accompanying picks...why isn't that the plan anymore?

I'd say it's a combination of the performance of the team, not having that cap space - partly due to the cap not growing and partly to the team not having moved many contracts - and, not wanting to saddle the team with a significant bonus overage penalty moving forward.

OK, but they've got the room this year for the bonus cushion, and then some, even given a flat cap. 

Would we (tmlfans "we") be adverse to some heavy short term acquisitions (assuming nothing or hardly nothing going the other way, plus UFA signings) to try and make some noise over the next couple of years...or should be play the patience card and take on some more "garbage" contracts just keep drafting and developing higher end talent with no appreciable change in overall team performance over the next couple of seasons? 

I say this because they should want to make some use of that cap space, given they should have the budget for it.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 05, 2017, 07:55:28 PM
OK, but they've got the room this year for the bonus cushion, and then some, even given a flat cap. 

Actually, they don't if they start adding contracts without moving any. As things stand right now, they have ~$12M in cap space before they come up against the projected ceiling - and that's before last season's bonus overage is counted, and it's coming in somewhere in the neighbourhood of $5M. Marchenko potential heading back to KHL as rumoured frees up $1.45M (though, with the league minimum now at $650K, that's basically negated by the Leafs needing to add a 6th defenceman and a backup goalie), and they might free up some in the expansion draft, but, unless they make a deal with Vegas beforehand, that's not guaranteed (for instance, if Vegas takes whichever of Rychel and Leipsic the Leafs need toe expose, there's no cap savings).

That leaves the team with ~$7M in space before the hit the cap ceiling. They potentially have another $5M in bonuses that could be reached this season with the rookies currently on the roster. They really only have at most $2M-$2.5M to play with if they want to eliminate any possibility of a bonus overage.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 05, 2017, 09:45:02 PM
Let's not forget that the Leafs were a NTC-away from acquiring Filppula and his $5mil cap hit for another season from Tampa when they made the Boyle trade. That would have likely came with a pick or two coming our way as well. So that idea hasn't entirely been scrapped by the Leafs management. Something like that could still happen.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 05, 2017, 09:57:50 PM
Let's not forget that the Leafs were a NTC-away from acquiring Filppula and his $5mil cap hit for another season from Tampa when they made the Boyle trade. That would have likely came with a pick or two coming our way as well. So that idea hasn't entirely been scrapped by the Leafs management. Something like that could still happen.

For players the team thinks will be useful, yeah. They'll likely be willing to go into overage if they feel the move improves the team and brings some quality futures. I don't see them just taking on a garbage contract for picks, though. If they're going to risk another overage penalty, they're going to need the contract they pick up to belong to a player who will contribute on the ice.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 05, 2017, 10:17:27 PM
For players the team thinks will be useful, yeah. They'll likely be willing to go into overage if they feel the move improves the team and brings some quality futures. I don't see them just taking on a garbage contract for picks, though. If they're going to risk another overage penalty, they're going to need the contract they pick up to belong to a player who will contribute on the ice.

Think back to our team at the deadline, does that apply to Filppula? I don't think he's a bad player at all, but seriously think back to our line-up. He's a lefty who usually plays centre. He absolutely wasn't playing centre on our team. Especially not since Boyle would have been the initial piece of that trade, so 1 through 4 we were set. Does he play left wing anywhere? I doubt Babcock would have disturbed any of those guys after keeping them set in stone all season long, and that includes Martin on the 4th line. He wasn't going to get playing time on his off-wing over Nylander, Marner, or Brown. So at best, he's our 4RW or a healthy scratch. I wouldn't be surprised if looking over the roster or maybe even talking to Babcock about his potential role caused him to veto the trade.

Anyway, I don't know what this all exactly means. Even at the time the news about him was a little odd. Looking back I'm glad the trade didn't go. Especially since the kickers Tampa sent with him to Philly weren't anything I'm upset we missed out on. To be honest I'd rather we would have gone after a worse player to get a better draft pick out of it.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 06, 2017, 02:08:40 PM
Think back to our team at the deadline, does that apply to Filppula? I don't think he's a bad player at all, but seriously think back to our line-up. He's a lefty who usually plays centre. He absolutely wasn't playing centre on our team. Especially not since Boyle would have been the initial piece of that trade, so 1 through 4 we were set. Does he play left wing anywhere? I doubt Babcock would have disturbed any of those guys after keeping them set in stone all season long, and that includes Martin on the 4th line. He wasn't going to get playing time on his off-wing over Nylander, Marner, or Brown. So at best, he's our 4RW or a healthy scratch. I wouldn't be surprised if looking over the roster or maybe even talking to Babcock about his potential role caused him to veto the trade.

Anyway, I don't know what this all exactly means. Even at the time the news about him was a little odd. Looking back I'm glad the trade didn't go. Especially since the kickers Tampa sent with him to Philly weren't anything I'm upset we missed out on. To be honest I'd rather we would have gone after a worse player to get a better draft pick out of it.

I think that's hard to say without knowing all the details of the trade. There was some speculation Bozak was going to be part of that trade - which would have improved the return for the Leafs, and provided Filppula with a spot in the lineup (as dumb a move as that would have been).
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Frank E on June 08, 2017, 03:36:53 PM
OK, but they've got the room this year for the bonus cushion, and then some, even given a flat cap. 

Actually, they don't if they start adding contracts without moving any. As things stand right now, they have ~$12M in cap space before they come up against the projected ceiling - and that's before last season's bonus overage is counted, and it's coming in somewhere in the neighbourhood of $5M. Marchenko potential heading back to KHL as rumoured frees up $1.45M (though, with the league minimum now at $650K, that's basically negated by the Leafs needing to add a 6th defenceman and a backup goalie), and they might free up some in the expansion draft, but, unless they make a deal with Vegas beforehand, that's not guaranteed (for instance, if Vegas takes whichever of Rychel and Leipsic the Leafs need toe expose, there's no cap savings).

That leaves the team with ~$7M in space before the hit the cap ceiling. They potentially have another $5M in bonuses that could be reached this season with the rookies currently on the roster. They really only have at most $2M-$2.5M to play with if they want to eliminate any possibility of a bonus overage.

But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 08, 2017, 04:02:31 PM
But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?

Sure, but you can't use LTIR space for bonuses. If the Leafs are in the position where they have to use LTIR space - which they can only do if their roster, including the injured players, hits the cap ceiling during the season (before bonuses are awarded). If the Leafs use even one penny of LTIR space, all bonuses get pushed to the next season.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Frank E on June 08, 2017, 04:16:24 PM
But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?

Sure, but you can't use LTIR space for bonuses. If the Leafs are in the position where they have to use LTIR space - which they can only do if their roster, including the injured players, hits the cap ceiling during the season (before bonuses are awarded). If the Leafs use even one penny of LTIR space, all bonuses get pushed to the next season.

I don't like you.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on June 08, 2017, 04:37:19 PM
But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?

Sure, but you can't use LTIR space for bonuses. If the Leafs are in the position where they have to use LTIR space - which they can only do if their roster, including the injured players, hits the cap ceiling during the season (before bonuses are awarded). If the Leafs use even one penny of LTIR space, all bonuses get pushed to the next season.

I don't like you.

You just don't like truth.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on October 04, 2017, 12:26:40 PM
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Newfoundlandleaf on October 04, 2017, 01:02:55 PM
I just hope the kids live up to the hype....talent? Barrels of it....hopefully the work ethic stays!!! :)
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 04, 2017, 01:36:04 PM
But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?

Sure, but you can't use LTIR space for bonuses. If the Leafs are in the position where they have to use LTIR space - which they can only do if their roster, including the injured players, hits the cap ceiling during the season (before bonuses are awarded). If the Leafs use even one penny of LTIR space, all bonuses get pushed to the next season.

I don't like you.

You just don't like truth.

So by extension busta = the truth.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: bustaheims on October 04, 2017, 01:36:57 PM
But they've got $10mil in LTIR space too, right?

Sure, but you can't use LTIR space for bonuses. If the Leafs are in the position where they have to use LTIR space - which they can only do if their roster, including the injured players, hits the cap ceiling during the season (before bonuses are awarded). If the Leafs use even one penny of LTIR space, all bonuses get pushed to the next season.

I don't like you.

You just don't like truth.

So by extension busta = the truth.

That's what they call me.
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: disco on October 18, 2017, 11:20:38 PM
Nice view :)
Title: Re: #TheLeafsAreActuallyGood...?
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on October 18, 2017, 11:33:32 PM
Vegas and NJ am simple crazy.