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Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Topic started by: CarltonTheBear on September 09, 2015, 04:24:33 PM

Title: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 09, 2015, 04:24:33 PM
There's a few threads going on right now that have kind of touched on this topic. Or at least a lot of different people have talked about how long it might take for us to get back into the playoffs in different threads. Thought that we could tackle this head on here.

So: what's the Leafs rebuild plan right now? How are are we into a rebuild plan? How much longer are we going to completely suck? When can we expect to see another playoff game? When can we expect to at least challenge the top teams in the East/league?

While I think a lot of people like to say that the rebuild really only started with the Kessel trade, my thoughts are that it really started with the drafting of Rielly and the 2012 draft. In the past four drafts we've had three top-10 draft picks. Of those three two of them were top-5 picks, and the other was definitely in the conversation to go top-5. In Year 1 of let's say "Shanny's Rebuild", we're very likely to add another top-5 draft pick, maybe even the highest we've drafted yet. That'll mean we're heading into Year 2 of Shanny's rebuild with a core of Rielly, Nylander, Marner, and Player X.

The biggest question I think is, what happens in Year 2? I think a lot of people are assuming that we'll have another garbage fire season but I actually think that we'll start to show a decent amount of improvement that season. Especially since both Nylander and Marner will likely be full-time NHLers that season. They'll be far from their peaks but I still think they can have a positive impact on the team. I think that the 16/17 Leafs will look a lot like the 14/15 Panthers did, with Rielly/Marner/Nylander being our Ekblad/Barkov/Huberdeau. The Panthers jumped from 66 points to 91 points there, I don't know if we'll have that big of a jump from 15/16 to 16/17, but I could see us getting to around the mid-80s.

That brings us into Year 3. Our 2016 top-5 first round draft pick likely joins the squad at this time. So we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in. Toss in a keen signing or trade and a few more prospects like Brown/Kapanen/Johnson who could be NHL players at that point and I think you have a team that could very well be playoff-ready.

Years 4 & 5 would be a transition from just a playoff team to a team that could legitimate compete with the other teams. By Year 5 the oldest core guys are Kadri/Gardiner at 29 and JVR at 30. But we won't be counting on 29/30 years to lead the team as that'll be up to Rielly/Marner/Nylander/2016 dude by then. Obviously part of what got me to write this all up has to do with the conversation regarding whether or not keeping Kadri and Gardiner is in the teams best interest. If the rebuild plan is like I've drawn up, which obviously maybe it won't be, then I think the team is still going to really need all 3 of those players in a few years.

So basically a short version of what my projected time line would look like:

2014-15: 68 points
2015-16: 68 points
2016-17: 85 points
2017-18: 94 points
2018-19: 98 points
2019-20: 102 points


I'm not saying that we'll have the Cup by 2020, but I definitely don't think that we're in a position that we need to perpetually lose for awhile.

Anyways, going back to my original questions, what seasons do you guys think we'll a) get out of the bottom-5, b) get back into the playoffs and c) become a 100-point team in?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on September 09, 2015, 04:35:45 PM
The way I see it, is the next 2 seasons, the team will be at or near the bottom of the league. This will be the time for accumulating picks and prospects, developing young players and trading away pieces that aren't expected to be part of the long-term plan. I don't think it's a coincidence that the team didn't sign anyone for longer than 2 years this summer. I really believe 2 more seasons of bottoming out is the plan.

Year 3 is going to the when the transition starts to happen, but it'll be largely dependent on what happens with the goaltending. By then, the team will know if Bernier is the guy or not. If not, that'll extend the rebuild a little. Otherwise, I think your timeline is pretty close, CtB. You're just a year ahead of how I see it playing out.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Tigger on September 09, 2015, 05:06:24 PM
I can see a hard bottoming out for 2 years, then a milder one in year 3 ( still Marner and Nylanders sophomore year ), followed by 4 years of steady improvement and competitiveness and then the Leafs sign McDavid for the win. All kidding aside, to me that puts the Leafs around 4 years from playoffs and 6 years from any kind of contention status.

Rielly, Nylander, Marner plus two more top 4 picks, maybe even another top 10 and hopefully a little luck with the lower rounds and real patient development overall seems to be the plan.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on September 09, 2015, 06:35:51 PM
I'm on board with CtB's timeline, because I agree that the rebuild started with Rielly. Whether the Leafs were shedding core talent fast enough to draft high enough to begin assembling a core trio of top-5 picks (or whatever it takes to really be a year-in, year-out threat) doesn't mean they haven't been enjoying the benefits of a rebuild (drafting high end talent).

That said, I think the timeline is still largely a matter of choice. That is, if the team doesn't trade Kadri, Gardiner, and JvR in the next year or so, I think there could be enough NHL talent on the roster to shelter the arriving Nylander and Marner such that the team is out of the basement (though not a playoff team) in 2016-17. But if they shed Kadri &c. before next fall, then 2016-17 can be just as brutal as 2015-16 is going to be, and they'll have another top 5 pick, some more prospects/picks that'll need a lot of development, and so an extended rebuild, which lines up with what some folks are anticipating and others are advocating (getting a bit better in 2017-18).

Which path management goes down we can't really know just yet. I'm sure it involves cap calculations as Frank's said. It probably also involves their assessment of whether Gardiner, Kadri, JvR would be more valuable to a playoff team than 2-3 other prospects, 2-3 low 1st rounders (or whatever the return is), and another top-5 pick. Will they be ready to compete with Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Elite Player X, Kadri, Gardiner, JvR as the core? Or better to wait for Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Elite Player X, Elite Player Y, and whatever those three turn into (and whenever they turn into them -- probably about when Rielly and Nylander are beginning to create cap troubles?)? As for their assessment of Kadri and Gardiner, both win the fancy stats race, and that is the direction the Leafs have been headed in, so I'd give them a better chance of being thought useful on a good team and sticking than JvR. Though I suppose that adds its own complication: isn't he supposed to be salvaged by Babcock?

Guess my answer is the future is hard to predict, but status quo says (I think) this team isn't an absolute disaster in 2016-17, and they get better from there. 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on September 09, 2015, 08:25:33 PM
My (hopeful) guess:

2015-16:
Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.

2016-17:
Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.

2017-18:
Nylander starting to separate himself from the pack, and taking Kapanen and Brown along for the ride. Gauthier, Marner, Johnson make the jump and the Leafs are now possession fiends up and down the lineup, led from the backend by Rielly and Marincin. They make a good run at the playoffs but ultimately fall short by 2 spots.

2018-19:
Yeah, it starting to get lively on the bandwagon. Playoffs! A second round exit to the Lightning is nothing to be ashamed of though.

2019-20:
Those sleeper picks from the latter rounds of 2015 and 2016 wake up and hit the NHL. We swing for the fence July 1st for a 30G power forward and go to town on our division rivals.

Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner
Supporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: LuncheonMeat on September 09, 2015, 09:35:43 PM
My (hopeful) guess:

2015-16:
Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.

2016-17:
Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.

2017-18:
Nylander starting to separate himself from the pack, and taking Kapanen and Brown along for the ride. Gauthier, Marner, Johnson make the jump and the Leafs are now possession fiends up and down the lineup, led from the backend by Rielly and Marincin. They make a good run at the playoffs but ultimately fall short by 2 spots.

2018-19:
Yeah, it starting to get lively on the bandwagon. Playoffs! A second round exit to the Lightning is nothing to be ashamed of though.

2019-20:
Those sleeper picks from the latter rounds of 2015 and 2016 wake up and hit the NHL. We swing for the fence July 1st for a 30G power forward and go to town on our division rivals.

Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Matthews
Supporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown

*Edited for accuracy
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 09, 2015, 09:44:26 PM
Or, you know, Nylander, Marner, and the other prospects now on board or gotten this year and next top out at an Antropov-like level, or there is no steady improvement, or injuries derail careers, blahda blahda blahda.

I just think it's kind of premature to make predictions about where a team will be in the next X years when they largely depend on guys who have never yet played an NHL game.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: L K on September 09, 2015, 10:37:11 PM
I think I see just one or two too many guys who still have something in the tank and are looking for rebound years this year.  I'm expecting a slow start that picks up around the end of November where the Leafs go on a run into January when the first trade gets made to unload one of the one-year rentals.  The Leafs start to wane in the second half but they don't manage to come close to the 51 points put up by the Coyotes.  They finish in 3rd just ahead of Carolina.

Year 1: 72 points
Year 2: 67 points
Year 3: 72 points
Year 4: 86 points
Year 5: 95 points (playoffs)
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 07:46:18 AM

I think any predictions that start with the notion that basically all of the Leafs first rounders will turn into elite players and quickly are probably on the unrealistically optimistic side of things. Just from a strict numbers standpoint odds are that one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and whoever they draft this year won't be all that big a deal.

It's not a matter of believing in the staff or not on that one either. Most of the best teams, the teams we'll want the Leafs to end up looking like, whiffed on some top draft picks. The Blackhawks took Cam Barker at #3, the Kings took Thomas Hickey at #4, the Lightning took Brett Connolly at #6.

So expecting this team to get close to the playoffs next year, to me, is more or less expecting every single major prospect on the team to develop exactly the way we want them to as soon as we want them to and I just don't see where that's something anyone within the organization will really be planning for.

I think we're in for something similar to what LK predicts above. Three seasons or so of general lousiness followed by a "Hey, they've really got something going on" season that falls short followed by playoff contention.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 08:00:00 AM
So we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in.

Honest question. Let's say you gave a random team the 8th, 5th, 4th and, say, 2nd pick over a five year stretch. Wouldn't you say that that team drafting an elite player with all four of those draft picks would rank up there with the best stretches of drafting in NHL history?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: RedLeaf on September 10, 2015, 08:12:02 AM
So we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in.

Honest question. Let's say you gave a random team the 8th, 5th, 4th and, say, 2nd pick over a five year stretch. Wouldn't you say that that team drafting an elite player with all four of those draft picks would rank up there with the best stretches of drafting in NHL history?

Of course. That's why predicting the future is such a crapshoot. It's also why it is essential that teams get as many lottery balls in the hopper as they possibly can. It's probably also the reason Hunter tried to trade the Marner pick away for a bunch of lower picks.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 10, 2015, 09:22:12 AM
Honest question. Let's say you gave a random team the 8th, 5th, 4th and, say, 2nd pick over a five year stretch. Wouldn't you say that that team drafting an elite player with all four of those draft picks would rank up there with the best stretches of drafting in NHL history?

Maybe elite wasn't the right word, maybe I don't define an elite player the same way others do. I don't think of course that all 4 are going to be top-10 players in their respective positions, but I do think that at this point it's reasonable to project them as good top-line/pairing players. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic but I really think that we nailed our recent picks, Nylander and Marner in particular. Some people had Nylander going significantly higher in his draft, he was as much of a steal as you can get when drafting 8th overall in my opinion. And Strome and Marner would have likely been challenging for 1st overall if it wasn't for having generational guys in their same draft year. I mean I get what your'e saying, there's a chance one or two don't pan out, Rielly's the only one whose actually played an NHL game so far, but I'm not going to sour on their upside until they give me a reason to.

As for your historic question, I guess it would be up there, yeah. But I think that if any team had that many high picks for that long they'd be saying the same thing. Pittsburgh had 5-straight top-5 picks and went Whitney, Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. I'd obviously take that group over Toronto's hypothetical group considering Crosby and Malkin tower over everyone else. Chicago went Seabrook, Barker, Skille, Toews, and Kane in a 5-year stretch. Barker and Skille were obviously busts, but Toews > Marner and Kane > Nylander so again you could argue quality over quantity there. Florida had a stretch of Gudbranson-Huberdeau-Barkov-Ekblad in 5 years. Yeah, I'd take the Leafs over them there. Edmonton had a 6-year run of Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid. Without McDavid I'd only give the Leafs a slight edge, with McDavid the Oilers take it.

So of the 5 teams that have had a draft stretch like that in the past while I'd rank Toronto's group 3rd, maybe 4th depending on the window we're looking at for Edmonton.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 09:40:04 AM
Maybe elite wasn't the right word, maybe I don't define an elite player the same way others do. I don't think of course that all 4 are going to be top-10 players in their respective positions, but I do think that at this point it's reasonable to project them as good top-line/pairing players. Maybe I'm being over-optimistic but I really think that we nailed our recent picks, Nylander and Marner in particular. Some people had Nylander going significantly higher in his draft, he was as much of a steal as you can get when drafting 8th overall in my opinion. And Strome and Marner would have likely been challenging for 1st overall if it wasn't for having generational guys in their same draft year. I mean I get what your'e saying, there's a chance one or two don't pan out, Rielly's the only one whose actually played an NHL game so far, but I'm not going to sour on their upside until they give me a reason to.

As for your historic question, I guess it would be up there, yeah. But I think that if any team had that many high picks for that long they'd be saying the same thing. Pittsburgh had 5-straight top-5 picks and went Whitney, Fleury, Malkin, Crosby, Staal. I'd obviously take that group over Toronto's hypothetical group considering Crosby and Malkin tower over everyone else. Chicago went Seabrook, Barker, Skille, Toews, and Kane in a 5-year stretch. Barker and Skille were obviously busts, but Toews > Marner and Kane > Nylander so again you could argue quality over quantity there. Florida had a stretch of Gudbranson-Huberdeau-Barkov-Ekblad in 5 years. Yeah, I'd take the Leafs over them there. Edmonton had a 6-year run of Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid. Without McDavid I'd only give the Leafs a slight edge, with McDavid the Oilers take it.

So of the 5 teams that have had a draft stretch like that in the past while I'd rank Toronto's group 3rd, maybe 4th depending on the window we're looking at for Edmonton.

But drafting McDavid or Crosby can't credibly be called "good" drafting in the sense I'm using it. Anyone would have made those picks. I'm talking about knocking out four top line sort of talents with only one top three pick. The Penguins drafting three good to great players drafting 1, 2, 1(or 2, 1, 3) isn't particularly remarkable outside of having those picks to begin with. I think if you went back in history and looked at teams who did have a run of multiple picks like the Leafs have had, the number of teams that wouldn't have blown at least one of those picks would be pretty small.

I don't think it's souring on anyone's upside to say that odds are that one of these guys won't turn out the way we hope. I mean, hell, right now we're including their hypothetical 2016 first rounder and I can't very well sour on him without knowing who he is. It's just acknowledging that everything going right for a team is probably within the realm of extreme unlikelihood. You can acknowledge a player's upside while realizing that players don't always reach their maximum potential.

But, honestly, it's not even that which presents the greatest question mark. It seems to me that your scenario not only doesn't allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks end up being significant disappointments, it doesn't really even allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks have a sort of Ryan Johansen-esque journey to being a top player where they take a couple of years to contribute in a meaningful way.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 10, 2015, 10:04:58 AM
But, honestly, it's not even that which presents the greatest question mark. It seems to me that your scenario not only doesn't allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks end up being significant disappointments, it doesn't really even allow for a situation where any of the Leafs draft picks have a sort of Ryan Johansen-esque journey to being a top player where they take a couple of years to contribute in a meaningful way.

I guess it was a little unclear with how I phrased something in my Year 3 paragraph, but I don't think it'll be until Year 4 when Marner/Nylander/2016 when they really take over the team. By then Marner and Nylander will be in the 3rd year of their ELC, 2016 guy in his 2nd. I think that having some success while these guys are on ELCs is pretty key and not completely unrealistic.

I think that they'll have good rookie seasons in Year 2, but nothing extraordinary for top rookies their age. And I think that we have good reason to think that they'll be better than a Ryan Johansen for instance. Nylander will have 2 years of professional experience where he was the top player on his team. Marner doubled Johansen's point output in their draft years and will likely crush his draft+1 season too. At the same age they were better players than Johansen.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 10:23:06 AM
I guess it was a little unclear with how I phrased something in my Year 3 paragraph, but I don't think it'll be until Year 4 when Marner/Nylander/2016 when they really take over the team. By then Marner and Nylander will be in the 3rd year of their ELC, 2016 guy in his 2nd. I think that having some success while these guys are on ELCs is pretty key and not completely unrealistic.

The disconnect is that I don't really see how the team can have the sort of improvement that you project for them in years 2 and 3 without contributions from Marner and Nylander that do have them making exceptional showings as rookies and second year players. Absent that it seems like we're talking about a 20-25 point increase from year one to year two almost entirely on the backs of Kadri, Gardiner and Rielly.

I think that they'll have good rookie seasons in Year 2, but nothing extraordinary for top rookies their age. And I think that we have good reason to think that they'll be better than a Ryan Johansen for instance. Nylander will have 2 years of professional experience where he was the top player on his team. Marner doubled Johansen's point output in their draft years and will likely crush his draft+1 season too. At the same age they were better players than Johansen.

The point there wasn't compare either player to Johansen but, rather, to the pattern of development Johansen took to get to where he did which really isn't all that uncommon. Most players are ineffective their rookie years. Some that aren't take steps back in their second years. Again, I'm not saying that none of these guys will be good as rookies, it's the likelihood of all of them being very good as rookies and second year players I doubt. Lots of very good players have hiccups in their development.

It just doesn't seem like you've allowed for any margin of error here. At all.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 10, 2015, 10:52:18 AM
The disconnect is that I don't really see how the team can have the sort of improvement that you project for them in years 2 and 3 without contributions from Marner and Nylander that do have them making exceptional showings as rookies and second year players. Absent that it seems like we're talking about a 20-25 point increase from year one to year two almost entirely on the backs of Kadri, Gardiner and Rielly.

If I wanted to get more specific I think that I could see them getting 35-40 points as rookies. I don't think that's crazy for players of their draft position and experience to score on a non-playoff team. I think that having a couple of young and energenic forwards like that replace some of the dead weight that we'll see on this years team would help result in a jump that I mentioned (I had it as 17 points). It would also partially be on the backs of those players mentioned and as a result of some more smart moves from the guys upstairs.

It just doesn't seem like you've allowed for any margin of error here. At all.

That's fair, really. It's a very optimistic plan that I wrote out. Nylander could get hurt and have his progression stunted. Marner's size might keep him out of the NHL entirely. Another losing season could effect Rielly negatively. Babcock might hate Gardiner and Kadri and force them out.

But I also don't think that this is the absolute-best-case-scenario. I don't think Chicago knew that they were getting the Jonathan Toews we know today when they drafted him 3rd overall. They got lucky Johnson and Staal went ahead of him. The next year the lottery bumped them from 5th overall to 1st overall and they picked Kane instead of Karl Alzner. Marner could blow past expectations and become a top-5 centre in the league, we could win the lottery next season and draft Auston Matthews.

But again, sure, I will admit that in terms of a worst-case and best-case scenario my plan there leans towards the latter.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on September 10, 2015, 11:48:32 AM
As has been mentioned, I'm concerned that some might automatically assume that a top 10 pick is going to be a good-great player.  As I've looked through the draft 2005-2010, there are definitely some "meh" players taken in the top 10.

I'm starting to think this thing is going to take a good 5 years if they don't start getting more multiple first round picks, or alternatively, they draft some diamonds later in the draft.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: skrackle on September 10, 2015, 01:39:25 PM
I've always figured it would take at least 5 years for the Leafs to become Cup contenders if they went for a true rebuild. And that's if they get most of it right along the way.

I would be looking to move players like JVR, Kadri and Gardiner. That just seems to be the best way to potentially acquire elite talent that will be in the desired age range. That's not to say the Leafs can't win by keeping those players, but in my armchair GM role, I'd go for a full teardown and rebuild. The first step is stocking the organization with as many high end prospects as possible, which they finally do have a good start on. It's not just drafting- the whole development system, timely trades, signings etc. all has to function at a high level. But it does start with drafting.

There are many random factors involved in such a process and no guarantees. The Oilers are usually cited as exhibit A for not going this route, but I would do it. 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on September 10, 2015, 02:40:16 PM
As has been mentioned, I'm concerned that some might automatically assume that a top 10 pick is going to be a good-great player.  As I've looked through the draft 2005-2010, there are definitely some "meh" players taken in the top 10.

I'm starting to think this thing is going to take a good 5 years if they don't start getting more multiple first round picks, or alternatively, they draft some diamonds later in the draft.

If they don't get this, there's a good chance they get stuck in Oilers' territory. If you don't hit on quality players outside the top 10, you're not going to progress significantly.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 10, 2015, 03:37:57 PM
I don't predict anything other than to say that real changes on the ice probably won't be seen until Year 3, on.

Also, a lot depends on how Kadri, Gardner, and JVR are viewed, whether they will be trade bait (to get higher returns) or whether they will be part of the rebuild.  And what of Phaneuf, Bernier, Reimer?

The Leafs have young up and coming (but green)  goaltenders in their system and it's certain they'll want to have one of them playing with the team eventually.  Goaltending is important and shouldn't be overlooked.  Even if one has the best defence on earth, and a mediocre netminder, it won't be enough.  Goaltending is going to be an issue and hopefully the Leafs will address the long-term of it.

Overall, I don't think the team will show any significant signs of improvement (of challenging or even making the playoffs) until Year 3 onward.  To improve in the standings and points totals will be indicative enough that the team will have been going in the proper direction.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 10, 2015, 03:47:23 PM
Captain Phaneuf can't wait to start season:

http://espn.go.com/blog/nhl/post/_/id/39468/dion-phaneuf-wants-to-be-part-of-maple-leafs-rebuild
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on September 11, 2015, 09:43:27 AM
I get a kick out the tsn.ca link title:  Who Is Going to Replace Kessel's Goals?

Umm..no one?  That's kind of the idea here guys.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on April 27, 2016, 11:43:47 AM
My (hopeful) guess:

2015-16:
Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back. Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks. Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender. Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +). Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump. Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline. Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats. MSM crows about how Corsi is flawed.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.

Prediction review. Mostly not right :)

Lupul hits the IR in January and doesn't come back.
He IRed in early Feb. Close!

Older expiring UFAs moved out by the deadline for 2-4th rd picks.
This one was a gimme.

Reimer is flipped for a 3rd and an older backup to a contender.
If the Sharks make the final, then this one becomes true.

Kadri and JvR are shopped, but Leafs will only move if the deal knocks our socks off (1st rd pick +).
JvR injury put a damper on this, but draft/offseason trade was more likely anyway. Kadri played himself into re-signing.

Hopefully we can package one of our remaining forwards (Holland, Frattin, Panik) with Robidas or Bozak for a 3rd + prospect + salary dump.
Frattin and Panik were moved in packages (sort of... Panik --> Morin --> Stalock + pick), but Robidas and Bozak remain in the mix. We did get salary dump back for the Phanuef package.

Soshnikov, Bailey, Hyman, Leivo, Carrick, Loov, and Percy fill out the roster post deadline.
I missed on Nylander coming up, Bailey being moved, and Percy being bad, but mostly right!

Finish 3rd last despite the good bump in possession stats.
Happy to be wrong on this one. We'll see how happy come April 30th.

Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.
We do have 12 picks! Kadri won't be traded. JvR is worth way more on the market. There should be some sour teams coming out of these playoffs who would move D/picks for premiere scoring.

Quote
2016-17:
Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.

This will need adjustment. For one thing, Marner can't play for the Marlies unless he's with the Knights and they end their season early.
Rielly did re-up for 6 years! Even cheaper than $6M!
I don't think we'll trade Gardiner with Phaneuf out of the picture.
Bozak is definitely out once we find a taker.
If we play the heck out of our youth, we can still have a promising bottom-5 season and another good kick at the lottery.
I believe Kapanen marinates for another year on the Marlies, and Percy gets packaged (what with all our promising but waiver-eligible defencemen). Leipsic and Loov we can probably keep down longer due to the expiring contracts still on the roster. I'm hoping for a lot of movement on that front prior to the season starting to free up space.

Nylander is in. Marner should be in. Brown, Soshnikov, and Hyman push for roles (and probably get them).
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Highlander on April 27, 2016, 12:06:07 PM
well done Herman, I think you are spot on
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on April 27, 2016, 12:15:14 PM
well done Herman, I think you are spot on

Didn't you see how wrong I was before, Highlander?  ;D
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Highlander on April 27, 2016, 12:34:45 PM
Your were not that far off and you may be Herman but you are not the Amazing Kreskin
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: LuncheonMeat on April 27, 2016, 12:44:38 PM
Your were not that far off and you may be Herman but you are not the Amazing Kreskin

You don't know that. Wait 'til he reaches for that slip of paper in his pocket... and it says Highlander!!   :P
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Highlander on April 27, 2016, 01:54:41 PM
I is ready to serve, but not protect!
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on April 30, 2016, 09:13:14 PM
Quote from: herman
Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Matthews
Supporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown

*Edited for accuracy

Prescient.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: LuncheonMeat on May 01, 2016, 07:06:53 PM
Core: Nylander, Rielly, Marner, Matthews
Supporting: Marincin, Dermott, Timashov, Gauthier, Brown

*Edited for accuracy

Prescient.
[/quote]

If only you'd unearthed my Superpower prior to last year's draft.  :(
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2016, 08:04:58 PM
I think any predictions that start with the notion that basically all of the Leafs first rounders will turn into elite players and quickly are probably on the unrealistically optimistic side of things. Just from a strict numbers standpoint odds are that one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and whoever they draft this year won't be all that big a deal.

Question for any interested to answer it. Has anyone looked closely at Marner's D+1 OHL season and Nylander's D+2 AHL season and updated their comparables? Have we seen anything that would indicate we should start tempering our optimism? Asking with full knowledge that a full NHL season can slow their progress.

Also, looking at page 1, I noted that my prediction was, if they didn't trade JvR, Kadri, and (probably) Gardiner, they'd have too much talent in 2016-17 to really have great odds for the 2017 draft lottery. With the addition of Matthews, 2014-15 Panthers season is my optimistic prediction (25-point increase to 94 points). 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: sneakyray on May 01, 2016, 08:20:30 PM
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Zee on May 01, 2016, 08:26:43 PM
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.
Bernier was terrible during the first half of the season but played quite a bit better after that. If he play at or slightly better than his career .915% next season the Leafs should be OK, but yeah they need to have someone up and coming real soon.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 01, 2016, 09:31:40 PM
My biggest question mark on this team going forward is goaltending.  I think they'll need to target someone via trade.  Maybe one of the blues or ducks goalies. And they need to draft at least one this year to start some depth at the position.

Not to discount goaltending, but the sorta reliable superstar goalies that you'd want to lock up and call 'core' are few and far between. Most that are under long-term, big-dollar contracts aren't worth it. A lot of those bad contracts were given to goaltenders who had a couple great years (including Cup wins), but turned out not to be as essential as the Cup would make them seem. There's a lesson in that about what sort of goaltending you need to win a Cup (and about what to do with goaltenders, how to keep your skating core intact, etc.). So, depth, yes, by all means. And assembling a group of quality options shouldn't be that hard, given how cheaply goaltenders can be acquired.

What about defense? That's the weakness that's a lot harder to address, I think. The Leafs' core is full of high-end forwards, and still no Doughty/Karlsson/Subban/Letang/Weber/Keith/Chara/30m-man in sight.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Jolly good show chaps on May 02, 2016, 03:15:10 AM
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: sneakyray on May 02, 2016, 07:54:08 AM
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there. 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Al14 on May 03, 2016, 01:44:36 PM
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: sneakyray on May 03, 2016, 08:20:18 PM
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)

same reason that others want to trade jvr...you have to give to get.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: harps64 on May 03, 2016, 08:41:53 PM
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 03, 2016, 08:50:35 PM
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 03, 2016, 09:21:55 PM

When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: RedLeaf on May 03, 2016, 09:36:57 PM
What would we have to give up to get a D-man (say Vatanen) and goalie (Andersson) from Anaheim?

Pittsburgh's 1st, JVR, two good prospects not named Marner or Nylander and a lower pick(s)?
I was wondering if there was a deal to be made at the draft for a top 15 pick if sergachev is still sitting there.

for instance could bozak or gardiner and pitts first plus one of the seconds be enough to get a top 10 or 15 pick?  I'm not sure.  or maybe along the same lines as you are suggesting to get shattenkirk and allen out of st louis maybe a similar package?

I don't know if it would do it but I'm sure the leafs will try to be active.  Last year they just decided to move down out of the first round and could do the same this year, or they could probably move up a bit if someone they targeted was sitting there.

I can see trading Bozak, even Kadri for a top 2 D, however, why does some fans want to trade Gardiner?   :-\  Now that he's out from under the Carlyle blanket, he's been improving steadily, thanks to Babcock.   ;)

same reason that others want to trade jvr...you have to give to get.

There's another saying, the more you give the more you get. With that line of thinking why not trade Marner Nylander or Rielly?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: harps64 on May 03, 2016, 09:38:12 PM
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 03, 2016, 10:01:12 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: harps64 on May 03, 2016, 10:07:10 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

 Joe Thornton....maybe?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 03, 2016, 10:09:04 PM
Just thinking what the chances are of Matthews playing for the Marlies and Marner playing in Europe next year are?

Same as McDavid in Europe or Eichel playing for Buffalo's AHL team.

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.

If they leave the goalie situation status quo, there's a pretty good chance of that happening anyway.

But I don't think they'll put their thumb on the scale by stashing players like that. We've heard management say, and seen them follow through on saying, that prospects will be in the NHL when they're NHL-ready.

Are there many players with Marner's D+1 OHL season who didn't make the jump to the NHL the next season? 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 03, 2016, 10:09:32 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

Has it ever happened with a forward? Ovechkin aside.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 03, 2016, 10:13:22 PM

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.

Well, for starters, you wouldn't be asking a 19 year old kid to go live in Europe for a year and spend a crucial year of his development under a coach and team that are likely to put their own interests over his.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: harps64 on May 03, 2016, 10:24:50 PM

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.

Well, for starters, you wouldn't be asking a 19 year old kid to go live in Europe for a year and spend a crucial year of his development under a coach and team that are likely to put their own interests over his.

It seemed to work for Matthews...No?
Its Europe, not Mongolia or North Korea. Last time I checked, Europe had developed 1 or 2 decent players.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 03, 2016, 10:31:28 PM

It seemed to work for Matthews...No?

Matthews didn't go over there to develop. If he'd been draft eligible last year he'd have gone in the top 3. He went there to make money.


Its Europe, not Mongolia or North Korea. Last time I checked, Europe had developed 1 or 2 decent players.

Yeah. Typically Europeans who are from the countries they're playing in, who speak the language and don't have to adjust to the culture.

The Leafs would have no say in how Marner would be used. You want the coach of HC Frolunda deciding if Marner is getting PP time or not? There's absolutely nothing wrong with the Leafs doing with Marner what Edmonton did with Draisaitl.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 03, 2016, 10:33:02 PM

Not that I disagree with you, but whats the advantage of them playing in the NHL next year? Whats the rush? Why not let Marner play in Europe and develop, get stronger and get used to playing against men? Why not give Matthews half a season in the AHL?
If the plan is to grab another top prospect next year, maybe another #1, or at least a top 3, maybe it could be an option.

Well, for starters, you wouldn't be asking a 19 year old kid to go live in Europe for a year and spend a crucial year of his development under a coach and team that are likely to put their own interests over his.

It seemed to work for Matthews...No?
Its Europe, not Mongolia or North Korea. Last time I checked, Europe had developed 1 or 2 decent players.

Matthews wasn't eligible to play in the NHL. If had been born 2 days earlier, he likely would've been drafted by Buffalo and played for them last year. In the NHL.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Potvin29 on May 03, 2016, 10:55:02 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

Has it ever happened with a forward? Ovechkin aside.

Going back to 1990 I haven't seen one.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 03, 2016, 10:59:14 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

Has it ever happened with a forward? Ovechkin aside.

Going back to 1990 I haven't seen one.

Couldn't have gone back another year or two man? Happened to Modano and Sundin in 1988 and 89. Looks like they're the only cases since expansion in 67.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Potvin29 on May 03, 2016, 11:04:13 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

Has it ever happened with a forward? Ovechkin aside.

Going back to 1990 I haven't seen one.

Couldn't have gone back another year or two man? Happened to Modano and Sundin in 1988 and 89. Looks like they're the only cases since expansion in 67.

Come on man, I'm trying to keep it relevant.  I went back to 1990 but it would be ridiculous to try to say 1989 or 1988 is relevant to today.  1990 is the last relevant year. It is just a coincidence that it is a nice even number.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 03, 2016, 11:13:57 PM
When's the last time a player was drafted #1 overall and didn't make the NHL in his first season?

Erik Johnson, about a decade ago.

Has it ever happened with a forward? Ovechkin aside.

Going back to 1990 I haven't seen one.

Couldn't have gone back another year or two man? Happened to Modano and Sundin in 1988 and 89. Looks like they're the only cases since expansion in 67.

Come on man, I'm trying to keep it relevant.  I went back to 1990 but it would be ridiculous to try to say 1989 or 1988 is relevant to today.  1990 is the last relevant year. It is just a coincidence that it is a nice even number.

I apparently needed to up my E/P on that one.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: harps64 on May 03, 2016, 11:20:49 PM

It seemed to work for Matthews...No?

Matthews didn't go over there to develop. If he'd been draft eligible last year he'd have gone in the top 3. He went there to make money.

I somehow doubt it was the money that lured him there.
He went there to develop and experience a different style of game. He's not the first and only North American player to ever do this, lots of former NHL players play in the Swiss league, even current drafted players from Florida and Washington play there.


Its Europe, not Mongolia or North Korea. Last time I checked, Europe had developed 1 or 2 decent players.

Yeah. Typically Europeans who are from the countries they're playing in, who speak the language and don't have to adjust to the culture.

The Leafs would have no say in how Marner would be used. You want the coach of HC Frolunda deciding if Marner is getting PP time or not? There's absolutely nothing wrong with the Leafs doing with Marner what Edmonton did with Draisaitl.


Whats wrong with learning different cultures? it could be a positive, not a negative. You make it sound like an unenjoyable chore when it could be the opposite.
I assume the Leafs would be able to find the right setup if they think it would add to the players development.
Anyways....like I said......options.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 03, 2016, 11:34:50 PM

Whats wrong with learning different cultures? 

Nothing. It's a lovely thing to do. It can, however, be an additional challenge for a young person who is already knee deep in the challenge of trying to be one of the top hockey players in the world. 

I think the fact that no team has ever done this with one of their top prospects should tell you something.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: McGarnagle on May 04, 2016, 01:22:36 PM
I could be wrong, but I thought I heard something on the radio about how Marner couldn't be shipped off to Europe anyway, due to the nature of the Knights owning his rights. It's either the NHL, or the OHL - as is my understanding.

I'm thinking they'll give him every chance to make the club, and then loan him out to the WJC regardless.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: McGarnagle on May 04, 2016, 01:51:27 PM
Anyways, my likely unpopular rebuild would be the following:

1) Stopgap UFA goalie signing. Reimer would be fine, or an Enroth/Gustavsson. Barring that, a deal for a younger goalie with some potential. No Stamkos. Possibly a veteran D on a short deal for depth.

2) Trade JVR, Bozak, possibly Komorov at the draft for picks or prospects. 

3) Look to exploit another team with a cap problem. Take on a brian bickell or the like for a return.

Field a young team and start coaching them as if they will be part of the future. They'll still be a lottery team due to lack of experience and elite goaltending. Figure out which players are fitting the roles, draft another good prospect, and then take a bigger step next off-season.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 04, 2016, 02:22:27 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender, as cap space allows
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on May 04, 2016, 02:31:59 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender, as cap space allows
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft

This is mine.  Everything stated here, even the $10m on Stamkos.

I'd really like a couple of strong d-man prospects that are 20-24 years old, and that's where JVR comes into play for Vatanen. 

I really wanted Chychrun, so I'd be elated if they found their way to get him too.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 04, 2016, 02:41:20 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender in Cowen deal, as cap space allows, buyout Cowen, if no reasoanble trade available
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation gaining experience/development with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on May 04, 2016, 03:09:12 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender in Cowen deal, as cap space allows, buyout Cowen, if no reasoanble trade available
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation gaining experience/development with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft

Yah, well, you're wrong.

Why do you want to keep the UFAs?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 04, 2016, 03:11:33 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender in Cowen deal, as cap space allows, buyout Cowen, if no reasoanble trade available
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation gaining experience/development with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft

Yah, well, you're wrong.

Why do you want to keep the UFAs?

Expiring UFAs get traded at the deadline (step 14) usually, rather than the draft. Our existing Expiring UFAs are of the expensive variety (Greening, Laich, Michalek), so the deadline is a more palatable time for recipients.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on May 04, 2016, 03:20:49 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender in Cowen deal, as cap space allows, buyout Cowen, if no reasoanble trade available
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation gaining experience/development with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft

Yah, well, you're wrong.

Why do you want to keep the UFAs?

Expiring UFAs get traded at the deadline (step 14) usually, rather than the draft. Our existing Expiring UFAs are of the expensive variety (Greening, Laich, Michalek), so the deadline is a more palatable time for recipients.

OF COURSE I KNOW THAT!!! 

I actually thought that's what grieves meant, just used the wrong term.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 04, 2016, 03:56:02 PM
My plan:
1. Trade whatever you can of Bozak, Komarov, the expiring UFAs at the draft for picks
2. Take Matthews
3. Trade JvR, picks, B prospect to upgrade defense, either moving into middle of first round or targeting an RFA defenseman (Vatanen?)
5. Use later picks to add to defense, goalie prospect pool
6. Try to sign Stamkos, walk away if it's going over $10m
7. Trade for promising, cheap young goalie or sign stopgap vet
8. Bargain bin UFAs!
9. Take on bad contract for picks from contender in Cowen deal, as cap space allows, buyout Cowen, if no reasoanble trade available
10. More PTOs! Competition at camp, option of keeping Marlies down if they aren't ready
11. Year of experimentation gaining experience/development with core of Stamkos, Matthews, Nylander, Marner, Kadri, Rielly, Gardiner, Zaitsev, and new D (if RFA in trade).
12. Ice young team, see what happens.
13. Let whoever go to the World Juniors.
14. Move out whichever of the expiring UFAs you can at the deadline. Work in some Marlies.
15. Enjoy 9+ picks in 2017 draft

Yah, well, you're wrong.

Why do you want to keep the UFAs?

Expiring UFAs get traded at the deadline (step 14) usually, rather than the draft. Our existing Expiring UFAs are of the expensive variety (Greening, Laich, Michalek), so the deadline is a more palatable time for recipients.

OF COURSE I KNOW THAT!!! 

I actually thought that's what grieves meant, just used the wrong term.

I can't speak for mr grieves, but if I wrote that, my reason would be to open up room for the graduating Marlies/waiver eligibles/salary dumps.

I probably wouldn't bother with UFA signings, unless it's for a goalie, or unless the cheapo is a significant upgrade over what our pending RFAs/waiver eligibles can provide.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 04, 2016, 04:34:23 PM
Expiring UFAs get traded at the deadline (step 14) usually, rather than the draft. Our existing Expiring UFAs are of the expensive variety (Greening, Laich, Michalek), so the deadline is a more palatable time for recipients.
OF COURSE I KNOW THAT!!! 

I actually thought that's what grieves meant, just used the wrong term.

<ring, ring... ring, ring>
Lou: Hello?
GM: Hello?
Lou: Hello?
GM: Hello?
Lou: ..... Hel--
GM: -- I really liked what I saw of Colin Greening last spring, so I was wondering if--
Lou: FEBRUARY!
<click>

Move em whenever there are takers. I know those guys tend not to move until the trade deadline, but, if you can get a low pick sooner, sooner you can add another cheap UFA to maybe move for a pick. Unlikely though it might be. That was only point of that there.

As for cheap UFAs vs. waiver eligibles, hadn't thought of that. Hold the RFAs if they're cheaper/better. In general, I'm happy to have a team where the bottom of the line-up is a rotation of cheap players replaced by young players when the former are moved out for picks. When the young cheap becomes tradable, trade for whatever and replace with something from the system, or if he looks like a contributor higher up the depth chart, move someone more established/expensive for a higher pick. Keep the pipeline pumping.

As for Stamkos, will Leafs be a stronger contender in 3 years with or without him?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: McGarnagle on May 04, 2016, 04:54:35 PM
I probably wouldn't bother with UFA signings, unless it's for a goalie, or unless the cheapo is a significant upgrade over what our pending RFAs/waiver eligibles can provide.

I'm pretty much in this camp as well regarding UFAs. I remember there was a quote from Shanahan saying that winning the draft wouldn't change his UFA plans - I'm hoping that was because he doesn't have any.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 04, 2016, 04:57:15 PM
Move em whenever there are takers. I know those guys tend not to move until the trade deadline, but, if you can get a low pick sooner, sooner you can add another cheap UFA to maybe move for a pick. Unlikely though it might be. That was only point of that there.

I mean, if there's a reasonable offer put forward, sure, but, unlike the others you mention in that point, I wouldn't be shopping them. I also wouldn't just ship them out for wahtever later pick gets offered this summer. Quality over quantity.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: McGarnagle on May 04, 2016, 05:10:03 PM
Move em whenever there are takers. I know those guys tend not to move until the trade deadline, but, if you can get a low pick sooner, sooner you can add another cheap UFA to maybe move for a pick. Unlikely though it might be. That was only point of that there.

I think we'll have to see a different philosophy this year, simply due to the icetime required to assess the younger players. Boyes, Spaling, Winnik, Parenteau, Grabner, etc - ate icetime, but also kept younger players with the Marlies. Backfilling them with more trade deadline bait in 16/17 isn't going to work in terms of player development. I'm guessing if we take anyone on, it will be based on burying cap hits for other teams.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 04, 2016, 05:11:25 PM
Move em whenever there are takers. I know those guys tend not to move until the trade deadline, but, if you can get a low pick sooner, sooner you can add another cheap UFA to maybe move for a pick. Unlikely though it might be. That was only point of that there.

I mean, if there's a reasonable offer put forward, sure, but, unlike the others you mention in that point, I wouldn't be shopping them. I also wouldn't just ship them out for wahtever later pick gets offered this summer. Quality over quantity.

I don't remember what the draft pick value chart said the difference was between two 4ths and a 3rd. Thought it was quantity over quality after you're out of the first round?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Highlander on May 04, 2016, 05:17:11 PM
We all know that great players show up in the later rounds.  There is a lot of skill and intangibles involved so people lie Hunter can discover these Gems, so after the first round ya quantity is a good thing
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 04, 2016, 05:19:14 PM
Move em whenever there are takers. I know those guys tend not to move until the trade deadline, but, if you can get a low pick sooner, sooner you can add another cheap UFA to maybe move for a pick. Unlikely though it might be. That was only point of that there.

I think we'll have to see a different philosophy this year, simply due to the icetime required to assess the younger players. Boyes, Spaling, Winnik, Parenteau, Grabner, etc - ate icetime, but also kept younger players with the Marlies. Backfilling them with more trade deadline bait in 16/17 isn't going to work in terms of player development. I'm guessing if we take anyone on, it will be based on burying cap hits for other teams.

I would guess that they'll be giving some older players ice time one way or another. I thought Babcock's preferred way of breaking players in was to have one vet on the line with them. If the plan is to trade Bozak, Komarov, JvR, and to Robidas Lupul, then they're down to Michalek and Greening. Oh, and Laich. I guess that works.

Soshnikov - Stamkos - Nylander
Michalek - Kadri - Hyman
Greening - Matthews - Marner
Laich - Gauthier - Brown
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Britishbulldog on May 04, 2016, 05:58:07 PM
I can't speak for mr grieves, but if I wrote that, my reason would be to open up room for the graduating Marlies/waiver eligibles/salary dumps.

I probably wouldn't bother with UFA signings, unless it's for a goalie, or unless the cheapo is a significant upgrade over what our pending RFAs/waiver eligibles can provide.

I was trying to find that list of Leaf players for next season.

I found this but I couldn't tell if it was last season or next season:
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 04, 2016, 06:54:11 PM
I can't speak for mr grieves, but if I wrote that, my reason would be to open up room for the graduating Marlies/waiver eligibles/salary dumps.

I probably wouldn't bother with UFA signings, unless it's for a goalie, or unless the cheapo is a significant upgrade over what our pending RFAs/waiver eligibles can provide.

I was trying to find that list of Leaf players for next season.

I found this but I couldn't tell if it was last season or next season:
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

They're showing this season's eligibility. Clicking the waiver button per player will show when they become eligible.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: RedLeaf on May 04, 2016, 07:18:04 PM
Do people really think we're going to get a major upgrade on defence by trading away a few 'B' grade prospects or players? That will just get us more of what we have already. What's needed to bring in a top notch, stud D-man is the trading of Kadri, Marner, or Nylander. Anything less would probably just bring in another Carrick, Harrington or Percy. We have those type of defenseman already.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: McGarnagle on May 04, 2016, 07:25:16 PM
Do people really think we're going to get a major upgrade on defence by trading away a few 'B' grade prospects or players?

I didn't see anyone suggest as much....?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Britishbulldog on May 04, 2016, 08:31:48 PM
I was trying to find that list of Leaf players for next season.

I found this but I couldn't tell if it was last season or next season:
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/mapleleafs

They're showing this season's eligibility. Clicking the waiver button per player will show when they become eligible.

Wow, I hovered over the symbol and didn't realize it was a button.  Thanks Herman.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 04, 2016, 09:11:30 PM
Do people really think we're going to get a major upgrade on defence by trading away a few 'B' grade prospects or players? That will just get us more of what we have already. What's needed to bring in a top notch, stud D-man is the trading of Kadri, Marner, or Nylander. Anything less would probably just bring in another Carrick, Harrington or Percy. We have those type of defenseman already.

There's a lot of real estate between Harrington, Carrick, or Percy and "a top notch, stud D-man." Combine a deep system, expiring RFA, present cap troubles, need to win now (Anaheim?), with the Leafs' stockpile of picks, forward prospects, cap space, and JvR, and you've maybe got a way to upgrade at the position. Could get another Gardiner that way, maybe.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Al14 on May 09, 2016, 12:44:42 PM
Do people really think we're going to get a major upgrade on defence by trading away a few 'B' grade prospects or players? That will just get us more of what we have already. What's needed to bring in a top notch, stud D-man is the trading of Kadri, Marner, or Nylander. Anything less would probably just bring in another Carrick, Harrington or Percy. We have those type of defenseman already.

There's a lot of real estate between Harrington, Carrick, or Percy and "a top notch, stud D-man." Combine a deep system, expiring RFA, present cap troubles, need to win now (Anaheim?), with the Leafs' stockpile of picks, forward prospects, cap space, and JvR, and you've maybe got a way to upgrade at the position. Could get another Gardiner that way, maybe.

JvR alone should be able to get us another Gardiner type player, IMHO.

Now, if you add a forward prospect, and/or picks, we should be able to acquire a 1b or 2a type D at least.  It depends on the needs of the other team.  If they need a player like JvR and have the D to replace what they end up trading, then, we're good.  No?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 14, 2016, 02:24:09 PM
MR. GRIEVES REBUILD PLAN
Wherein the Leafs become the Chicago Blackhawks, Tampa Bay Lightning, or Islanders (with more playoff success). They could turn out to be the Panthers or Colorado, I suppose... but they've got better management than Dale Tallon's and better coaching than Patrick Roy's. So, optimistic fan fiction follows:

2016-2017:
* It's surprise, anyway, to those who overlooked the underlying numbers Babcock got out of a crap roster in 2015-16.

2017-18:

2018-19:

2019-2020 and 2020-21:

2021-22:

2022-23:

2023-24 on:
Keep winning. Become most hated team in the league. Moreso.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 14, 2016, 06:17:56 PM
If Marner is sent to the OHL, he can't be recalled unless it is on an emergency basis.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 14, 2016, 09:06:58 PM
If Marner is sent to the OHL, he can't be recalled unless it is on an emergency basis.

Actually, since he's under contract, if he's sent to junior, he can't be recalled at all until his junior season is over.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on May 14, 2016, 11:40:30 PM
Jeez, somebody should at least acknowledge grieves -- that's quite the piece of work there.  The end is pretty funny too.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: RedLeaf on May 15, 2016, 08:32:45 AM
Nice journey into the future grieves. I'd take that scenario in a heartbeat. And the hating? Better to be the most hated team and winning , than the most hated team and not. I mean at some point in the past 40+ years you would think the hating would have turned to a bit more empathy. So yeah, bring on the dynasty years and give all the Leaf haters a good reason ;)
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Tigger on May 15, 2016, 09:30:25 AM
Nice grieves, Marner has to stay up for the year I guess and you didn't fit in McDavid, but the best part is repealing the salary cap.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on May 15, 2016, 04:50:56 PM
Jeez, somebody should at least acknowledge grieves -- that's quite the piece of work there.  The end is pretty funny too.

Thanks for acknowledging the work, Mr. McFate. I did learn how to make bulleted lists and took that MLHS article on Stamkos and played around cap hits. But I failed in researching the relevant CHL-NHL agreements... So, yeah. It's all pretty suspect.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 20, 2016, 10:09:56 AM
I didn't really know where else to put this, but here is Craig Button's review on the top 2 players in his mind for next years draft:

1. Nolan Patrick: A foundation centre. Makes everybody around him better and excels in all areas of the game. Exceptionally smart with a thorough understanding of what is necessary at any given moment in any given situation. High skill with an ease to his play and while he may not 'catch' your eye with flash, he plays with the substance of fellow Manitoban Jonathan Toews.                                   

2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 20, 2016, 10:11:35 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 20, 2016, 10:13:58 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Yeah, I liked Babcock's quote during the season when asked about player comparisons.  "I only ever saw one player play like Nik Lidstrom, and that was Nik Lidstrom."

I think it's because people get bored with saying "This guy is good at hockey".
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 20, 2016, 10:14:18 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on May 20, 2016, 10:16:45 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 20, 2016, 10:31:13 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?

Don't forget the leadership qualities of Messier, and the intimidation factor of Chara.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 20, 2016, 11:04:33 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 20, 2016, 11:07:57 AM

All that said, he sounds like a heck of a prospect and potentially just the sort of perfect addition to the team's prospect base.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on May 20, 2016, 11:10:38 AM
Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.

It's a problem that I'm having with the Matthews-Kopitar comparisons too. None of this is a knock on Matthews of course, I just think people might be setting themselves up for disappointment if they're comparing him to Kopitar. That or people don't quite understand how dominant of a scoring/possession/two-way centre Anze is.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: cabber24 on May 20, 2016, 11:12:15 AM
I wish we drafted Noah Hanifin at the time and especially in hind sight. Would trade them today if we could Hanifin for Marner. We need d-man. I am afraid of following the EDM template.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: cabber24 on May 20, 2016, 11:13:45 AM
2. Timothy Liljegren: Elite defenceman who can impact the game everywhere on the ice. Smarts and vision that is reserved for the very few. Outstanding skater in every regard and uses it to gain advantages defensively and offensively. Puck play is excellent and can thread the needle with a pass or a shot. Has a game reminiscent of Drew Doughty with a splash of Erik Karlsson.

God I hate prospect-player comparisons.

Button needs to temper his expectations.

So I shouldn't describe Laine as the speed and power of Mario Lemieux combined with skill and grace of Wayne Gretzky?
The guys on the FAN590 were comparing him to Ovie this morning calling him the next Ovie.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 20, 2016, 11:14:48 AM
Yeah. I mean, when you take them for what they're really meant as - which is stylistic comparisons - they're tolerable. The problem is so many people take them to mean that player has an equivalent ceiling to the guys they're being compared to, and that . . . well, just ugh.

It's a problem that I'm having with the Matthews-Kopitar comparisons too. None of this is a knock on Matthews of course, I just think people might be setting themselves up for disappointment if they're comparing him to Kopitar. That or people don't quite understand how dominant of a scoring/possession/two-way centre Anze is.

Maybe but I think that if Matthews doesn't become roughly the same level of player that people would be disappointed regardless of what comparisons get made.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 20, 2016, 11:19:08 AM
I wish we drafted Noah Hanifin at the time and especially in hind sight. Would trade them today if we could Hanifin for Marner. We need d-man. I am afraid of following the EDM template.

The Leafs already have a young, talented defenseman they drafted in the top 5. That's something the Oilers never did and he's older than Marner/Matthews/Nylander so he's more likely to line up his prime with theirs.

The Oilers problem wasn't really that they didn't draft defensemen, it's that they drafted bad ones.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: bustaheims on May 20, 2016, 11:51:53 AM
The Leafs already have a young, talented defenseman they drafted in the top 5. That's something the Oilers never did and he's older than Marner/Matthews/Nylander so he's more likely to line up his prime with theirs.

The Oilers problem wasn't really that they didn't draft defensemen, it's that they drafted bad ones.

And, really, just that they drafted poorly in general when picking outside the top 10.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on May 20, 2016, 12:02:17 PM
The Leafs already have a young, talented defenseman they drafted in the top 5. That's something the Oilers never did and he's older than Marner/Matthews/Nylander so he's more likely to line up his prime with theirs.

The Oilers problem wasn't really that they didn't draft defensemen, it's that they drafted bad ones.

And, really, just that they drafted poorly in general when picking outside the top 10.

Well, relatively speaking, they didn't really do a great job of drafting inside the top 10 either.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Al14 on May 20, 2016, 12:10:39 PM
The Leafs already have a young, talented defenseman they drafted in the top 5. That's something the Oilers never did and he's older than Marner/Matthews/Nylander so he's more likely to line up his prime with theirs.

The Oilers problem wasn't really that they didn't draft defensemen, it's that they drafted bad ones.

And, really, just that they drafted poorly in general when picking outside the top 10.

I think they made some mistakes with their 1st overall picks too!
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on May 20, 2016, 03:06:58 PM
In the unlikely event that the Leafs don't sign Stamkos (I know, it's ridiculous to think that they won't), it might be interesting to take a run at Eric Staal for a 1 year deal for too much money, just to flog him at the deadline.

Not sure he'd be up for that, but after last season, he might need a show-me year to get a decent longer term deal.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 20, 2016, 03:12:09 PM
In the unlikely event that the Leafs don't sign Stamkos (I know, it's ridiculous to think that they won't), it might be interesting to take a run at Eric Staal for a 1 year deal for too much money, just to flog him at the deadline.

Not sure he'd be up for that, but after last season, he might need a show-me year to get a decent longer term deal.

I don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Al14 on May 23, 2016, 11:01:01 AM
In the unlikely event that the Leafs don't sign Stamkos (I know, it's ridiculous to think that they won't), it might be interesting to take a run at Eric Staal for a 1 year deal for too much money, just to flog him at the deadline.

Not sure he'd be up for that, but after last season, he might need a show-me year to get a decent longer term deal.

I don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.


verb (used with object), flogged, flogging.
1.
to beat with a whip, stick, etc., especially as punishment; whip; scourge.
2.
Slang.

    to sell, especially aggressively or vigorously.
    to promote; publicize.

 8)

Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on May 23, 2016, 11:30:17 AM
In the unlikely event that the Leafs don't sign Stamkos (I know, it's ridiculous to think that they won't), it might be interesting to take a run at Eric Staal for a 1 year deal for too much money, just to flog him at the deadline.

Not sure he'd be up for that, but after last season, he might need a show-me year to get a decent longer term deal.

I don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.


verb (used with object), flogged, flogging.
1.
to beat with a whip, stick, etc., especially as punishment; whip; scourge.
2.
Slang.

    to sell, especially aggressively or vigorously.
    to promote; publicize.

 8)

I still don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Al14 on May 23, 2016, 11:51:16 AM
In the unlikely event that the Leafs don't sign Stamkos (I know, it's ridiculous to think that they won't), it might be interesting to take a run at Eric Staal for a 1 year deal for too much money, just to flog him at the deadline.

Not sure he'd be up for that, but after last season, he might need a show-me year to get a decent longer term deal.

I don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.


verb (used with object), flogged, flogging.
1.
to beat with a whip, stick, etc., especially as punishment; whip; scourge.
2.
Slang.

    to sell, especially aggressively or vigorously.
    to promote; publicize.

 8)

I still don't think he'd be up for a deadline flogging.

Well, he might not want to be whipped viciously, but, he might like to be sold to a possible Stanley Cup contender.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on October 08, 2017, 02:45:28 PM
Thought I'd check the thread out again. Enjoyed it when it was started and alive... A few years on, sorta fun to see how it all turned out. Two key things all of us missed: winning the Matthews lottery (well, LuncheonMeat guessed this) and getting the goaltending sorted.

I've arranged predictions from most conservative to most rosy

LK
I think I see just one or two too many guys who still have something in the tank and are looking for rebound years this year.  I'm expecting a slow start that picks up around the end of November where the Leafs go on a run into January when the first trade gets made to unload one of the one-year rentals.  The Leafs start to wane in the second half but they don't manage to come close to the 51 points put up by the Coyotes.  They finish in 3rd just ahead of Carolina.

Year 1 (15-16): 72 points
Year 2 (16-17): 67 points
Year 3 (17-18): 72 points
Year 4 (18-19): 86 points
Year 5 (19-20): 95 points (playoffs)


Zanzibar
Or, you know, Nylander, Marner, and the other prospects now on board or gotten this year and next top out at an Antropov-like level, or there is no steady improvement, or injuries derail careers, blahda blahda blahda.

I just think it's kind of premature to make predictions about where a team will be in the next X years when they largely depend on guys who have never yet played an NHL game.


Nik
I think any predictions that start with the notion that basically all of the Leafs first rounders will turn into elite players and quickly are probably on the unrealistically optimistic side of things. Just from a strict numbers standpoint odds are that one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and whoever they draft this year won't be all that big a deal.

It's not a matter of believing in the staff or not on that one either. Most of the best teams, the teams we'll want the Leafs to end up looking like, whiffed on some top draft picks. The Blackhawks took Cam Barker at #3, the Kings took Thomas Hickey at #4, the Lightning took Brett Connolly at #6.

So expecting this team to get close to the playoffs next year [2016-17 -ed.], to me, is more or less expecting every single major prospect on the team to develop exactly the way we want them to as soon as we want them to and I just don't see where that's something anyone within the organization will really be planning for.

I think we're in for something similar to what LK predicts above. Three seasons or so of general lousiness followed by a "Hey, they've really got something going on" season that falls short followed by playoff contention.


herman
My (hopeful) guess:

2015-16:
[snip - ed.]
Kadri/JvR, if still around, are traded at the Draft for primo picks. We roll into the Draft with 12 picks and target high ceiling prospects as usual.

2016-17:
Nylander, Kapanen, Brown, Leipsic, Loov, Percy make the jump to the NHL. We finish in the bottom 5 and draft accordingly. Big trades: Gardiner (for a good pick +) and Bozak (for a song). Rielly is re-upped for $6M+/6yrs. Marner takes over 1C on the Marlies a third into the season.

2017-18:
Nylander starting to separate himself from the pack, and taking Kapanen and Brown along for the ride. Gauthier, Marner, Johnson make the jump and the Leafs are now possession fiends up and down the lineup, led from the backend by Rielly and Marincin. They make a good run at the playoffs but ultimately fall short by 2 spots.


bustaheims
The way I see it, is the next 2 seasons [2015-16 and 2016-17 - ed.], the team will be at or near the bottom of the league. This will be the time for accumulating picks and prospects, developing young players and trading away pieces that aren't expected to be part of the long-term plan. I don't think it's a coincidence that the team didn't sign anyone for longer than 2 years this summer. I really believe 2 more seasons of bottoming out is the plan.

Year 3 [2017-18 - ed.] is going to the when the transition starts to happen, but it'll be largely dependent on what happens with the goaltending. By then, the team will know if Bernier is the guy or not. If not, that'll extend the rebuild a little. Otherwise, I think your timeline is pretty close, CtB. You're just a year ahead of how I see it playing out.


Carlton
The biggest question I think is, what happens in Year 2 [2016-17 - ed.]? I think a lot of people are assuming that we'll have another garbage fire season but I actually think that we'll start to show a decent amount of improvement that season. Especially since both Nylander and Marner will likely be full-time NHLers that season. They'll be far from their peaks but I still think they can have a positive impact on the team. I think that the 16/17 Leafs will look a lot like the 14/15 Panthers did, with Rielly/Marner/Nylander being our Ekblad/Barkov/Huberdeau. The Panthers jumped from 66 points to 91 points there, I don't know if we'll have that big of a jump from 15/16 to 16/17, but I could see us getting to around the mid-80s.

That brings us into Year 3 [2017-18 - ed.]. Our 2016 top-5 first round draft pick likely joins the squad at this time. So we'll have 3 elite, young players still on their ELC in him, Marner and Nylander. We'll have a 23-year old Morgan Rielly entering his 5th NHL season who could very well be a legitimate top pairing NHL defenceman by that point. We could have 27-year old versions of Kadri and Gardiner and a 28-year old version of JVR who would all likely be guys in between 1st and 2nd line status. And that's just what I'm pretty confident in. Toss in a keen signing or trade and a few more prospects like Brown/Kapanen/Johnson who could be NHL players at that point and I think you have a team that could very well be playoff-ready.


Me
I'm on board with CtB's timeline, because I agree that the rebuild started with Rielly. Whether the Leafs were shedding core talent fast enough to draft high enough to begin assembling a core trio of top-5 picks (or whatever it takes to really be a year-in, year-out threat) doesn't mean they haven't been enjoying the benefits of a rebuild (drafting high end talent).

That said, I think the timeline is still largely a matter of choice. That is, if the team doesn't trade Kadri, Gardiner, and JvR in the next year or so, I think there could be enough NHL talent on the roster to shelter the arriving Nylander and Marner such that the team is out of the basement (though not a playoff team) in 2016-17. But if they shed Kadri &c. before next fall, then 2016-17 can be just as brutal as 2015-16 is going to be, and they'll have another top 5 pick, some more prospects/picks that'll need a lot of development, and so an extended rebuild, which lines up with what some folks are anticipating and others are advocating (getting a bit better in 2017-18).

[snip - ed.]

Guess my answer is the future is hard to predict, but status quo says (I think) this team isn't an absolute disaster in 2016-17, and they get better from there.



Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 10, 2017, 05:28:42 PM

I think my bad prediction there is at least somewhat muted by the fact that A) I really assumed they'd deal JVR/Bozak and B) I still think I'm kind of right about "one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and (Matthews)" but that one just happens to be Rielly.

And I still kind of think that making the playoffs last year will be bad for the team long term.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on October 10, 2017, 07:25:53 PM

I think my bad prediction there is at least somewhat muted by the fact that A) I really assumed they'd deal JVR/Bozak and B) I still think I'm kind of right about "one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and (Matthews)" but that one just happens to be Rielly. 

I too assumed that one or both of Bozak and JVR would be traded and kind of see what not trading them has caused in terms of logjam. I don't mind the youngish ones overcooking in the A, but I don't want to lose good assets for nothing either. I do see the value they bring to this particular team for the entire season, but I want a pick or two back for JVR and I'll take the loss for  Bozak and Komarov and let them walk.

Why do you think it will be Rielly that goes?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Britishbulldog on October 10, 2017, 07:35:02 PM
I feel it will be Gardiner who might get traded at some point.

I see the talk of trying to get Doughty from LA but I feel that it would be difficult to handle without a major shakeup of the roster. 

We have Liljegren in the fold already who is considered a Karlsson-lite.  It was reported that the Leafs have talked to Igor Ozhiganov who has changed his game from goonery to responsible offensive dman with the hardest shot at the KHL Allstar game   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t962QOidIAs&vl=en   and at 6'2" 210+ lbs he has size to play a heavy game.   http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/411-igor-ozhiganov-russian-defenceman-connected-leafs/  Hopefully he will be coming here this coming summer and is comparable to Trouba-ish and not Gudbranson-ish.

That makes the Leafs LH as Rielly, Gardiner, Hainsey, Rosen, Borgman and Dermott.  The RH will be Zaitsev, Carrick, Liljegren and possibly Ozhiganov. 

In the 2019/20 season the Leafs have 8 players signed for $33 + MIL.  Not signed on forward yet are Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Gardiner. 

Defense: If Ozhiganov does come and plays as well as Zaitsev then I could see him getting a similar multi year $4.5 MIL contract.  Gardiner hopefully signs a Rielly contract of 6 years @ $5 MIL per.  Liljegren should be ready to call up and will still be on his ELC.  Add a 6th LH dman for a $1 or so you have a $22 MIL defense

Offense:Hoping Matthews signs a team friendly $10 MIL x 8 year deal next summer to go along with Nylander and Marner signing team friendly $6.5 MIL 8 year deals.  In this scenario I would still like to sign JVR to keep the 2 duos together: Matthews/Nylander, Marner/JVR and Kadri/Brown.  JVR would have to sign for a $5.5 MIL contract at most with young 3 signing the team friendly deals listed above. 

If JVR isn't re-signed then I see no replacement for his production in the Leafs prospects.  I really don't see any UFAs at his skill level and age ever coming available in this cap era.

The following summer Marleau's $6.25 MIL would be coming off the books giving room to re-sign Liljegren.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 10, 2017, 07:49:24 PM
I too assumed that one or both of Bozak and JVR would be traded and kind of see what not trading them has caused in terms of logjam. I don't mind the youngish ones overcooking in the A, but I don't want to lose good assets for nothing either. I do see the value they bring to this particular team for the entire season, but I want a pick or two back for JVR and I'll take the loss for  Bozak and Komarov and let them walk.

Why do you think it will be Rielly that goes?

That line isn't about one of them being traded. It's about how I thought that some of the rosier predictions were all predicated on all of the Leafs young players developing exactly the way they wanted them to. I thought the odds were that at least one wouldn't. Right now, I think that one is Rielly. Which isn't to say Rielly is a bad player, he's not, but I don't think he's going to develop into an elite top pairing defenseman either.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 10, 2017, 07:51:33 PM
If JVR isn't re-signed then I see no replacement for his production in the Leafs prospects.  I really don't see any UFAs at his skill level and age ever coming available in this cap era.

This is at least in part because most teams have to deal with the reality of not every single one of their players signing the most team-friendly deals imaginable.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on October 10, 2017, 07:54:35 PM
That line isn't about one of them being traded. It's about how I thought that some of the rosier predictions were all predicated on all of the Leafs young players developing exactly the way they wanted them to. I thought the odds were that at least one wouldn't. Right now, I think that one is Rielly. Which isn't to say Rielly is a bad player, he's not, but I don't think he's going to develop into an elite top pairing defenseman either.

Oh, my apologies, misunderstood that one. I agree then, it certainly looks as though Rielly is the one falling a bit behind. I wonder how much of that is due to his injury? I hold out hope that Rielly will be elite.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: slapshot on October 10, 2017, 08:51:08 PM
I think we'll have a better read on Rielly after this season. Last couple of years Babcock seriously focused Rielly on his defensive game, either with a sub-par partner or with Zaitsev who had to spend the year adjust to new league and new environment. Last year Rielly was often the 3rd d-man choice for the power play, behind Gardiner and even Zaitsev. This year, Babs is throwing Rielly over the boards  as the first d-man option on the powerplay, even ahead of Gardiner. This is no accident, just more methodology by Babs in Rielly's development. I have to say Hainsey has been a pleasant surprise in terms of just being very solid. I am not sure why he should be a surprise that way or that he'll be in the top 4 for long, but I thnk pairing him with Rielly for now was a good idea.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Frank E on October 10, 2017, 09:29:13 PM
I think the problem with Rielly on the PP is that he's just not a threat to score. 

Opposition just doesn't take him seriously as a shooting threat.

I think they might need a guy that's got a bomb, or is at least a greater threat to score.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 11:41:52 AM
I think the problem with Rielly on the PP is that he's just not a threat to score. 

Opposition just doesn't take him seriously as a shooting threat.

I think they might need a guy that's got a bomb, or is at least a greater threat to score.

Name the two players with the biggest bombs from the backend on the PP.  To save time, I'll name them for you:

Weber, Burns.

Guess what?  Their power plays are generally ineffective.  Gone are the days of the PP bomb being the most effective way to score. 

https://theathletic.com/78268/2017/08/02/column-why-the-sharks-and-brent-burns-should-stop-emulating-the-warriors/

Quote
Five (PP) units scored at least 10.0 GF/60 in a 4F1D. They all had similar shot volumes to the Sharks....
What really sticks out is how often the defensemen on these units — Torey Krug, Nikita Zaitsev, Andrej Sekera, John Klingberg and Rasmus Ristolainen — are shooting the puck as compared to Burns. On the modern high end 4F1D power play, the role of the point man in the offensive zone is more to create space by moving the puck than it is to shoot it. That's not what Burns is doing.

https://theathletic.com/100214/2017/09/14/dellow-three-questions-facing-canadiens-at-5-on-4/

Quote
The problem is that defencemen who attempt 30 per cent or more of their team's shots at 5-on-4 tend to not be on the ice for a lot of goals scored. Part of the reason a 4F1D is preferable to a 3F2D is that it tends to result in fewer shots from defencemen at the point and more shots created by forwards closer to the goal. As you can see in the graph below, the majority of the defencemen taking such a high percentage of their team's 5-on-4 shot attempts were on power plays that were below league average...... None of the defencemen on the league's really elite units take such a high percentage of their team's 5-on-4 shots.

Rielly and Gardiner are perfect for the PP quarterback role.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 11:53:15 AM

Seems pretty weak to look at someone like Webber, who's scored more PP goals over the last 3 years than players like Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko or Evgeni Malkin and say that because his team's PP success rate isn't great that his shot isn't a terribly effective weapon.

And stop posting stuff from the Athletic. If nothing else, it's an ineffective argument to post something saying "look at this chart" when the chart is behind a paywall.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 12:10:37 PM

Seems pretty weak to look at someone like Webber, who's scored more PP goals over the last 3 years than players like Patrick Kane, Vladimir Tarasenko or Evgeni Malkin and say that because his team's PP success rate isn't great that his shot isn't a terribly effective weapon.

And stop posting stuff from the Athletic. If nothing else, it's an ineffective argument to post something saying "look at this chart" when the chart is behind a paywall.

Burns also has alot of goals on the PP.  Them having a bomb from the backend is great for THEM scoring goals, but it doesn't make their PP's more effective.  I'd much rather have Rielly and Gardiner quarterbacking a top 5 PP than Weber/Burns bombing shots to the tune of a PP getting average results.  That doesn't seem like a weak argument to me.  However, if we were to add someone like them to our PP, as long as they aren't bombing all the time, it might actually create more opportunities for our forwards- but that goes against the instincts of a Weber/Burns so I do wonder if it would really work better in practice.  Its not like San Jose doesn't have a heck of a forward group that should get more scoring opportunities, but instead, Burns is bombing away.

And I believe this forum does not have rules about posting from the Athletic.  I'll continue to post as I see fit, and provide the quotes from it necessary to prove the point without posting the whole article.  If you have a subscription, then great, you can see more details.  If not, well that's too bad for you.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 12:26:02 PM
Burns also has alot of goals on the PP.  Them having a bomb from the backend is great for THEM scoring goals, but it doesn't make their PP's more effective.  I'd much rather have Rielly and Gardiner quarterbacking a top 5 PP than Weber/Burns bombing shots to the tune of a PP getting average results.  That doesn't seem like a weak argument to me.

I'd much rather earn 50,000 dollars a year with a billion dollars in the bank than earn 100,000 dollars with no money in the bank. That doesn't make 50,000 dollars greater than 100,000 dollars.

No one individual or one individual skill is going to make a PP effective. That has no bearing on whether or not a good shot from a defenseman, one of the people on the PP, is an effective weapon on the PP. The Ottawa Senators had the 23rd ranked PP last year, 26th the year before that. Is Erik Karlsson an ineffective PP presence?

And I believe this forum does not have rules about posting from the Athletic.

I suppose I was relying on people understanding general etiquette about these things but you do you.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 12:52:55 PM
Burns also has alot of goals on the PP.  Them having a bomb from the backend is great for THEM scoring goals, but it doesn't make their PP's more effective.  I'd much rather have Rielly and Gardiner quarterbacking a top 5 PP than Weber/Burns bombing shots to the tune of a PP getting average results.  That doesn't seem like a weak argument to me.

I'd much rather earn 50,000 dollars a year with a billion dollars in the bank than earn 100,000 dollars with no money in the bank. That doesn't make 50,000 dollars greater than 100,000 dollars.

No one individual or one individual skill is going to make a PP effective. That has no bearing on whether or not a good shot from a defenseman, one of the people on the PP, is an effective weapon on the PP. The Ottawa Senators had the 23rd ranked PP last year, 26th the year before that. Is Erik Karlsson an ineffective PP presence?

And I believe this forum does not have rules about posting from the Athletic.

I suppose I was relying on people understanding general etiquette about these things but you do you.

My understanding of the general etiquette is don't transcribe the article because its behind a paywall and that's not fair to the writers.  I haven't done that.  If there is another etiquette that those whom don't want to spend money on the Athletic should be catered to, I don't buy it.  I see links and quotes from lots of athletic articles being posted here, and while I'm sure you've complained to them as well, I don't think its fair to limit discussion of them because some people don't have access.  There is high quality information being presented in their work and avoiding it entirely does not seem prudent to advancing the discussion here. 

But since you are "the king" I suppose I can try to use other sources of information to prove my point going forward.

And back to the subject at hand.  The original poster stated

I think the problem with Rielly on the PP is that he's just not a threat to score. 

Opposition just doesn't take him seriously as a shooting threat.

I think they might need a guy that's got a bomb, or is at least a greater threat to score.

Agreed, one individual player does not make a PP effective or ineffective.  What the unit does as a whole does, and the units with d-men bombing away aren't the most effective, no matter how good the shooters are. 

My point was that the most effective PP's going these days don't have a guy bombing away.  The Leafs had one of the top units in the league last year, with Zaitsev actually shooting THE LEAST among the defensemen on top 5 units.  Yes, the fact that the forwards are Bozak, JvR, Marner, and Kadri on the unit is most likely what led to the success.  Zaitsev still had a job to do in his role there and I don't think Rielly chosen over him to start this year is a big deal.

If we could have Karlsson on our PP, I wouldn't disagree with Frank that Rielly shouldn't be on the PP.  Karlsson would no doubt make our PP even better.  But we don't have him.  Carrick, Rosen, Zaitsev probably have better shots than Rielly.  That doesn't mean they would make the unit more effective if they can't quarterback the PP as well as him. 

While the sample size is quite small, I see Rielly has been on the ice for 3 PP goals, in 9 min of PP ice time.  He has 2 assists on those goals.  Until the results begin to show us that Rielly's lack of a shot is really hurting the effectiveness of the unit, plus the proof showing that bombing away isn't as effective as what the Leafs were doing last year, I suppose the argument that Rielly shouldn't be on the PP because of his lack of a good shot doesn't hold water.

Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 01:04:07 PM
But since you are "the king" I suppose I can try to use other sources of information to prove my point going forward.

I guess I can only hope someone at the Athletic writes an article explaining the concept of irony to you.

Agreed, one individual player does not make a PP effective or ineffective.  What the unit does as a whole does, and the units with d-men bombing away aren't the most effective, no matter how good the shooters are. 

I think that implicit in what Frank said is that we're still talking about Morgan Rielly. So that is to say the sum total of why Rielly isn't a great PP option isn't just a lack of a good shot but rather the lack of a good shot combined with average-ish abilities elsewhere. Like you said, last year the team was very effective with Zaitsev in the role. They're good with Gardiner there too.

I think in general any good PP isn't going to be defined by any one particular strategy or attribute but rather by bringing a wealth of skills to the table and the fluidity to deploy individual ones against the adapting defensive techniques they're bound to encounter throughout a game. Point shots can be a piece of that puzzle just like anything else.

Remember, this is all taking place within the larger context of Rielly's development. Not "how can we possibly make the Leafs PP most effective". So it's not "Rielly's lack of a shot means he shouldn't be on the PP" but rather "Rielly's value right now is somewhat limited because he's not bringing anything exceptional to the table on the PP".
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 02:05:41 PM
But since you are "the king" I suppose I can try to use other sources of information to prove my point going forward.

I guess I can only hope someone at the Athletic writes an article explaining the concept of irony to you.


Could you be more condescending?  Seriously?  I just gave in to your request despite the fact it means I have to spend MORE time looking for proof to back up my statements, and this is the response I get. 

You are pretty smart, witty, and generally push discussion in the right direction but the amount of times you've been a complete a** to a number of people here is alarming.  I'm done responding to you when your posts involve putting other people down. 
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 02:12:36 PM
Could you be more condescending? 

Absolutely I can. Can you be more hypocritical?

But since you are "the king"
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 02:16:46 PM
Could you be more condescending? 

Absolutely I can. Can you be more hypocritical?

But since you are "the king"

You called yourself that, in another fantastic moment of being a condescending a**hat.

Seriously, busta did it the other day and now you. Don't try to "technically" me. Come at the King, you best not miss.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 11, 2017, 02:18:00 PM
So, that's a no to Rielly on the powerplay?  Just checking.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 02:22:16 PM
You called yourself that, in another fantastic moment of being a condescending a**hat.

No. That was me using a line from the Wire, a line in reference to an attempted murder on a drug kingpin, to declare myself as being "the king"(the quotes there to indicate irony) of needlessly pedantic specificity. To be clear, I do not think that is a necessarily good quality and so being "the king" of it was, in fact, ironic self-deprecation. Using the line from the show was an attempt to emphasize the silliness of it.

You, however, took it at face value and have no more than once used it while rolling your eyes because you somehow thought this was me bigging up myself. Then you came in with a "how dare you insult me when I was insulting you" bit of whining which I didn't really have time for.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Coco-puffs on October 11, 2017, 02:35:24 PM
You called yourself that, in another fantastic moment of being a condescending a**hat.

No. That was me using a line from the Wire, a line in reference to an attempted murder on a drug kingpin, to declare myself as being "the king"(the quotes there to indicate irony) of needlessly pedantic specificity. To be clear, I do not think that is a necessarily good quality and so being "the king" of it was, in fact, ironic self-deprecation. Using the line from the show was an attempt to emphasize the silliness of it.

You, however, took it at face value and have no more than once used it while rolling your eyes because you somehow thought this was me bigging up myself. Then you came in with a "how dare you insult me when I was insulting you" bit of whining which I didn't really have time for.

I did not take it at face value.  I am fully aware that it is a quote from the Wire.  I don't know how you can use that quote and NOT consider it bigging yourself up- while belittling me.  Since then, I've called you "the king" in jest because I'm sick of your condescension... which, in this thread started with "I suppose I was relying on people understanding general etiquette about these things but you do you". 

Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: CarltonTheBear on October 11, 2017, 02:38:32 PM
Ooook. Let's keep this thread focused on what it was intended to discuss: our rebuild plan circa 2 and a half years ago.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 11, 2017, 02:39:31 PM
I don't know how you can use that quote and NOT consider it bigging yourself up

Because who in their right mind would want to be known as "the king" of pedantry? Or associate silly arguments about technical language with violent disputes over drug territory?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Rick Couchman on October 11, 2017, 02:42:33 PM
Ding Ding.  Everyone back to their corners.

Here's the guideline for copying of content from another source:
http://www.tmlfans.ca/community/index.php?topic=4707.msg304898
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: herman on October 11, 2017, 02:43:12 PM
Oh man, pre-Matthews herman was such a sweet summer child. He thought Marner was AHL-eligible 2016-17.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on October 11, 2017, 07:26:10 PM
Oh man, pre-Matthews herman was such a sweet summer child. He thought Marner was AHL-eligible 2016-17.

This was before Seth Griffith broke your heart.  Also, I believe pre-Matthews herman wanted Marner to be a centre.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on October 12, 2017, 03:24:37 PM
I think my bad prediction there

I think we all had pretty bad predictions. No one was expecting playoffs last year. I copy/pasted predictions and arranged them from bleak to bullish because I was struck, reading them in that order, that you can say "nope, things went better than that... and that... and that..." and hit the bottom of the list. It highlights how astonishingly well this rebuild has gone... for example:

B) I still think I'm kind of right about "one of Rielly, Nylander, Marner and (Matthews)" but that one just happens to be Rielly.

If I were told, 2 years back, that, yes, one of those four top-ten picks will disappoint: the guy we'd hope would end up a #1D is probably going to top out as a #2... well, that's still getting really lucky, as these things go, no?


is at least somewhat muted by the fact that A) I really assumed they'd deal JVR/Bozak and...

Biggest difference between those of us who saw a shorter path to respectability than those on the five-year plan was assuming that they'd trade not only Bozak and JvR but also Gardiner, Kadri, Rielly... I never really thought it likely they'd look at the latter guys and think there aren't useful contributors to a potential contender there.


And I still kind of think that making the playoffs last year will be bad for the team long term.

But even here, back to marveling at our good fortune: if I were told the Leafs would make the playoffs and still be able to draft a guy who'd been scouted the year prior as having top-3 skill...
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 12, 2017, 04:11:18 PM
If I were told, 2 years back, that, yes, one of those four top-ten picks will disappoint: the guy we'd hope would end up a #1D is probably going to top out as a #2... well, that's still getting really lucky, as these things go, no?

I don't entirely agree with that reading of Rielly(in at least as much as I think the #1, #2, etc thing is a terrible way to rate players) but yes. I don't want to ascribe too much to luck but there's no getting around that things in that sense have generally gone pretty well. Winning the Lottery, for instance, is certainly a huge bit of good fortune.

But even here, back to marveling at our good fortune: if I were told the Leafs would make the playoffs and still be able to draft a guy who'd been scouted the year prior as having top-3 skill...

I mean, you're going to try and make me say Angelo Esposito again but I...dangit.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 12, 2017, 04:18:16 PM

Just as a for instance, I think a lot of what people didn't foresee was Andersen coming in and providing the team with immediately above-average goaltending. Now, you can chalk that up in part to luck but it's also a credit of sorts to management and a result of a designed strategy to be good sooner rather than later.

Will that prove to ultimately be a good decision? We sort of have to wait and see on that one. You don't want to read too much into early results but I have some doubts that Andersen is going to be in that fairly elite modern group of Goalies who are going to be above average every year.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Bender on October 12, 2017, 10:06:35 PM
One thing Andersen has consistently shown is inconsistency.

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Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Zee on October 13, 2017, 08:53:00 AM
One thing Andersen has consistently shown is inconsistency.

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It's a bit infuriating.  I mean last season he had months where he played under .900 save% and then months where he was crazy good .930% or something, and it all evens out to something like .918...would be nice if he just played .918-.920 all the time so you know what you're getting every start.  I guess that's not realistic.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: mr grieves on October 13, 2017, 11:38:16 AM
If I were told, 2 years back, that, yes, one of those four top-ten picks will disappoint: the guy we'd hope would end up a #1D is probably going to top out as a #2... well, that's still getting really lucky, as these things go, no?
I don't entirely agree with that reading of Rielly(in at least as much as I think the #1, #2, etc thing is a terrible way to rate players) but yes. I don't want to ascribe too much to luck but there's no getting around that things in that sense have generally gone pretty well. Winning the Lottery, for instance, is certainly a huge bit of good fortune.

I enjoy how even when you don't disagree with someone you can find some semantics to quibble over (whatever Rielly is, it's a pretty good "bust" to have).

1. Matthews was a huge bit of good fortune.

2. Drafting Nylander, Marner, Rielly and having all turn into good NHLers is either being good or (cos injuries, whatever) lucky. Sometimes guys just don't turn out as expected (as you noted with Hawks' top picks)

3. Keeping Kadri and Gardiner was smart.

4. Keeping Bozak and JvR inflated their performance to some degree, to be sure. Over the long term, I think not a smart move.

5. Getting the goalie seemed premature, has worked out so far. Over the long term... I dunno.

The Leafs probably don't make the playoffs without 4 and 5, which none of us really expected or really like(d) as moves.

But 1-3 are key parts of the rebuild, I think, and, with them going as they have, the Leafs might not be a playoff team yet without 4 & 5, but they'd be looking a lot better than any of us expected.


But even here, back to marveling at our good fortune: if I were told the Leafs would make the playoffs and still be able to draft a guy who'd been scouted the year prior as having top-3 skill...
I mean, you're going to try and make me say Angelo Esposito again but I...dangit.
[/quote]

Sure. That could happen. I wondered back around draft time what the history was on guys who fell out of the top three/five over the course of their draft year. How many are Espositos? How many are Nylanders? How many are somewhere in between?
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: Nik the Trik on October 13, 2017, 11:54:43 AM
I enjoy how even when you don't disagree with someone you can find some semantics to quibble over (whatever Rielly is, it's a pretty good "bust" to have).

To be clear, I do disagree re: Rielly. I was just moving past it because I didn't want to get bogged down in "Where do we see Morgan Rielly in 5 years?".

Also, semantics is typically about the meaning of words. Saying a rating system is misleading or overly simplistic isn't really a semantic discussion. What I just wrote, however, is.

But 1-3 are key parts of the rebuild, I think, and, with them going as they have, the Leafs might not be a playoff team yet without 4 & 5, but they'd be looking a lot better than any of us expected.

Sure. I don't think we can overstate the importance to a rebuild of winning a lottery and drafting someone like Matthews. Not just because of how good he is but because of the ripple effects it would have on the roster. 

Sure. That could happen. I wondered back around draft time what the history was on guys who fell out of the top three/five over the course of their draft year. How many are Espositos? How many are Nylanders? How many are somewhere in between?

To be fair, I think there's less "could" and more "did" there. That's not to say that Liljegren can't still develop into a really good player, he can. But that's true of anyone drafted in the first round, one time projected top 5 pick or not.

Which is to say that if you'd told me that the Leafs would make the playoffs but they'd still draft Liljegren with their pick I'd probably wonder why he was available as opposed to chalking it up to divine favour.
Title: Re: Your TML Rebuild Plan
Post by: disco on October 19, 2017, 12:39:35 PM
Nick just made a good point just now on Hockey Central about how much the Leafs spend outside the cap now on things like scouting, sports-sciences, farm-team, coaching... etc. Speculating it's tops in the League and good on them. For sure, when you're as rich as MLSE it seems reasonable that all you divisions are well funded, but it's not a guarantee.