TMLfans.ca

Maple Leafs News and Views => Main Leafs Hockey Talk => Marlies & Prospect Talk => Topic started by: Michael on July 08, 2015, 03:08:32 PM

Title: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Michael on July 08, 2015, 03:08:32 PM
I do not expect the Leafs to give us much to cheer about over the next two years, unless you like Tank Nation type cheering. What we can get excited about is the prospects, which over time is going to be a longer and deeper list for sure.

I'm wondering if people with better knowledge and insight than I have would be able to help start a discussion about the depth of prospects the Leafs have right now. How would you rank them? One to three are likely to be agreed on, but what about after that? Does anyone with the knowledge and the time to do so want to rank the top 10 or 20?

1. Mitch Marner
2. William Nylander
3. Kasperi Kapanen

Andreas Johnson
Zach Hyman
Frederick Gauthier
Connor Brown
Scott Harrington
etc. etc.

 



Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on July 08, 2015, 03:32:55 PM
Hockeys Future (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/toronto_maple_leafs/) does this with prospects under contract.

PensionPlanPuppets does a top 25 under 25 (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25) before every season as well.

Obviously, like scouting rankings, there are degrees of subjectivity and preference that come into play. I use these lists as a way to get to know the prospects in the pipeline, as I haven't the opportunity to watch them in action.

I have an eye on the following:
Forward
William Nylander
Mitch Marner
Kasperi Kapanen
Andreas Johnson
Connor Brown
Frederic Gauthier

Defense
Stuart Percy
Matt Finn
Petter Granberg
Viktor Loov
Travis Dermott
Jesper Lindgren
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Michael on July 08, 2015, 03:38:19 PM
Hockeys Future (http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/toronto_maple_leafs/) does this with prospects under contract.

PensionPlanPuppets does a top 25 under 25 (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25) before every season as well.

Obviously, like scouting rankings, there are degrees of subjectivity and preference that come into play. I use these lists as a way to get to know the prospects in the pipeline, as I haven't the opportunity to watch them in action.

I have an eye on the following:
Forward William Nylander Mitch Marner Kasperi Kapanen Andreas Johnson Connor Brown Frederic Gauthier
DefenseStuart PercyMatt FinnPetter GranbergViktor LoovTravis DermottJesper Lindgren

So you would not have Harrington in your top 5 D prospects?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on July 08, 2015, 03:45:36 PM
I don't really know much about Harrington. Stay-at-home defenders aren't really my cup of tea, either, so that's probably why I'm lukewarm at the moment.

Had I remembered him, I'd probably put him in the Viktor Loov/Petter Granberg pile.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 08, 2015, 03:55:35 PM
A year ago NHL.com listed this as our top-10 prospects:

Nylander
Percy
Gauthier
Brown
Finn
Johnson
Loov
Leivo
Bibeau
Nilsson

Is that a perfect list? Not really, but lets go from there. I would say that Brown, Johnson, and Bibeau  trended upward, while Percy, Finn, and Leivo had their stocks drop somewhat. So if we're just ranking those guys it'd look something like Nylander-Brown-Johnson-Gauthier-Loov-Percy-Finn-Bibeau-Nilsson-Leivo. You could make the case too that Carter Verhaeghe deserves to be there too, or at least he'd be very close.

Then we obviously added a decent amount of guys who deserve consideration. Marner and Kapanen for sure. Leipsic, Harrington, Bailey, Hyman. If I had to start ranking guys, I'd be more comfortable doing it in tiers like this:

Nylander
Marner

Kapanen
Brown
Johnson

Leipsic
Gauthier
Harrington

Bracco
Dermott

Loov
Percy
Leivo
Nilsson

Finn
Bailey
Hyman
Soshnikov
Verhaeghe
Valiev

And that just happens to be 20 players so I'll stop there. Some of the other guys from this draft like Lindgren, Timashov, and Korostelev deserve consideration here too, but maybe it's a little too early to start throwing their names out. I'd probably put their potential over some older guys like Leivo/Bailey/Hyman but they don't have the experience yet of course.

Then there's a handful of NCAA guys from before this draft like Cameranesi, Toninato, Joshua, Piccinich, and Vesey that I have no idea how I'd rank. They're all long-shots really but maybe we get one NHLer out of the bunch, who knows.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 08, 2015, 07:33:44 PM
Nylander(by some distance)

Marner

Brown

Kapanen

Johnson
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on July 08, 2015, 07:55:08 PM
I watched Cameranesi in the last game against Boston C. and he was amazing, he was on the puck all the time. He could be the sleeper and I think Toninato has some upside as well. Of course these are long horses but the more horses in the race the more that will cross the finish line. Man we seem to be filling the empty cupboards fairly quickly. Right now we have 11 picks for next year, at this rate we could end up with 15 for the 16 draft. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Michael on July 08, 2015, 07:59:32 PM
A year ago NHL.com listed this as our top-10 prospects:

This got me thinking. I wonder what it would look like if we kept a list of the top 10 or top 20 prospects year over year for the next few years. It's no stretch to think that the quality in the next 2 - 3 years is going to go up a lot.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Michael on July 08, 2015, 08:02:29 PM
Nylander(by some distance)

So, hypothetically speaking, you believe that if Nylander and Marner were not both prospects of the same team, that any GM would trade away Marner to get Nylander? I disagree, by some distance.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on July 08, 2015, 08:12:14 PM
Nylander and Marner on my watch are going to be almost of equal talents  in hope, although the mutual hope is they both become superstars.
I will be giving my full team list of nicknames shortly (which I don't use for offending most) but I will say I want to call this kid: Gran Marner (after one of my favorite nightcaps)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 08, 2015, 08:14:58 PM

Nylander(by some distance)

So, hypothetically speaking, you believe that if Nylander and Marner were not both prospects of the same team, that any GM would trade away Marner to get Nylander? I disagree, by some distance.

Marner had an unbelievable year in Jnr last year and still has that new draft pick smell that makes him fancy and exciting, but I'm absolutely stunned at how little coverage the year that Nylander had as a pro and a teenager at that, has had.

Nylander's first pro season was more impressive to me, for what he achieved on the ice and also in the weight room.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on July 08, 2015, 08:16:46 PM
www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2015/7/5/8894149/is-mitch-marner-or-william-nylander-the-leafs-best-prospect

This is a pretty good look at both, although I favor Nylander quite a bit more than the author.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on July 08, 2015, 10:19:03 PM
www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2015/7/5/8894149/is-mitch-marner-or-william-nylander-the-leafs-best-prospect

This is a pretty good look at both, although I favor Nylander quite a bit more than the author.

The author seemed pretty fawning over Nylander.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on July 09, 2015, 08:32:56 AM
This got me thinking. I wonder what it would look like if we kept a list of the top 10 or top 20 prospects year over year for the next few years. It's no stretch to think that the quality in the next 2 - 3 years is going to go up a lot.

Well even just from my completely unofficial rankings 6 of the top-10 are players that we've added since February. That's a pretty big injection of talent.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on July 09, 2015, 08:42:46 AM
This got me thinking. I wonder what it would look like if we kept a list of the top 10 or top 20 prospects year over year for the next few years. It's no stretch to think that the quality in the next 2 - 3 years is going to go up a lot.

Well even just from my completely unofficial rankings 6 of the top-10 are players that we've added since February. That's a pretty big injection of talent.

It borders on a full on transfusion. Other than Nylander and Brown, nearly everyone else brought in has bumped the old pool down a few tiers.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Michael on July 09, 2015, 11:52:25 AM
This got me thinking. I wonder what it would look like if we kept a list of the top 10 or top 20 prospects year over year for the next few years. It's no stretch to think that the quality in the next 2 - 3 years is going to go up a lot.

Well even just from my completely unofficial rankings 6 of the top-10 are players that we've added since February. That's a pretty big injection of talent.

It borders on a full on transfusion. Other than Nylander and Brown, nearly everyone else brought in has bumped the old pool down a few tiers.

And I think that watching this will be more exciting than watching the big team on the ice for the next couple of years. I might prefer a Marlies game this year over a Leafs game and I suspect I am not alone on that.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: hockeyfan1 on August 04, 2015, 05:21:18 AM
A summarized look at the Leafs' top prospects:

1. Mitchell Marner, C

How acquired:First round (No. 4), 2015 NHL Draft

Last season: London, OHL: 63 GP, 44-82-126

The Maple Leafs believe they have a player similar to the Chicago Blackhawks' Patrick Kane in Marner, right down to the fact Kane also played junior with the London Knights. Like Kane, Marner is a highly skilled player who's gifted with the puck.

Toronto signed the 18-year-old to a three-year contract July 28. In two seasons with the Knights, the 5-foot-11, 160-pound center had 57 goals and 185 points in 127 games. Marner is considered a solid two-way player who does not shirk his defensive responsibilities and is aggressive with his stick.

Projected NHL arrival: 2017-18



2. Kasperi Kapanen, RW

How acquired: Trade with Pittsburgh Penguins, July 1, 2015

Last season: KalPa Kuopio, Liiga (Finland): 41 GP, 11-10-21; Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, AHL: 4 GP, 1-1-2

The son of retired NHL forward Sami Kapanen is another of the Maple Leafs' small, skilled players; he's 5-foot-10 and 178 pounds. After playing most of last season in his native Finland, he joined the Penguins' American Hockey League affiliate to get a taste of North American hockey. Kapanen scored a goal and had an assist in four regular-season games, then had two goals and five points in five playoff games.

Goal-scoring is Kapanen's strong suit, but the 19-year-old is also a gifted playmaker who makes those around him better. He is a high-end skater with a quick release.

Projected NHL arrival: 2016-17



3. William Nylander, C

How acquired:First round (No.8 ),  2014 NHL Draft

Last season:Modo, Sweden: 21 GP, 8-12-20; Toronto Marlies, AHL: 37 GP, 18-14-32

The 19-year-old Canadian-born son of former NHL forward Michael Nylander is a speedy center with excellent offensive skills. Like Kapanen, Nylander started last season playing in Europe but came to North America to play in the AHL.

Nylander (5-foot-11, 174 pounds) has above-average speed, good hands and likes to shoot the puck. He performed well for Sweden at the 2015 IIHF World Junior Championship, scoring three goals and 10 points in seven games. The Maple Leafs hope he will become more engaged physically as he fills out and matures.

Projected NHL arrival: 2016-17



4. Stuart Percy, D

How acquired: First round (No. 25), 2011 NHL Draft

Last season:Maple Leafs: 9 GP, 0-3-3; Toronto Marlies, AHL; 43 GP, 1-10-11

Percy's greatest strength might be going unnoticed; for the type of game he plays, which is being smart with the puck, that's a good thing. The 22-year-old is a smooth-skating defender who makes few mistakes. He isn't overly physical but doesn't shy away from contact.

The 6-foot-1, 186-pound native of Oakville, Ontario, did not look out of place during a short stint with the Maple Leafs last season. He stays calm under pressure and is dependable at getting the puck out of the defensive zone.

Projected NHL arrival:2015-16



5. Frederik Gauthier, C[/close]


How acquired:[/color ] First round (No. 21), 2013 NHL Draft

Last season: Rimouski, QMJHL; 37 GP, 16-16-32

 stands out from Toronto's other top prospects because of his size; he's 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. The 20-year-old center is not considered to have top-six potential, but his defensive skills and ability in the faceoff circle suggest he'll be a dependable third-liner.

Gauthier represented Canada in the past two WJC tournaments. His game has been described as mature, and his offense has potential. Gauthier skates well and uses his size to win puck battles.

Projected NHL arrival: 2016-17



http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=776196&navid=DL (http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=776196&navid=DL)|NHL|home
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 04, 2015, 08:24:14 AM
Kapanen over Nylander? Well, that's one way for a list to lose all of it's credibility I guess.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: pmrules on August 04, 2015, 10:03:01 AM
Kapanen over Nylander? Well, that's one way for a list to lose all of it's credibility I guess.

Well, there's that plus I don't believe any of the heights and weights  - I think Nylander recently said he was heavier than that, and I think Kapanen is taller than what is reported.

I know its opinion, but I don't believe some of the starting NHL dates.

Marner - 2 more years in Junior?   Between 0, 1 and 2 more years in Junior, I put 2 years in Junior as the least likely.
Gauthier - 1 year in the AHL?  Its possible, but he likely needs 2 years.

Brings up an interesting dillemma - It's possible that Marner/Nylander (Kapanen maybe?) are all ready to start 2016/2017 with the Leafs.  Good problem or Bad to possibly have them ready all at once?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: pmrules on August 10, 2015, 11:21:00 AM
Saw this posted elsewhere re: our 3rd round pick from this year's draft:

Jérôme Bérubé @Jerome_Berube
Dzierkals (leafs prospect) won't report to R-Noranda camp. agent wants more $. Karlis Cuktse won't report either, will go to Waterloo USHL.

Background - Dzierkals was drafted by Rouyn-Noranda from the Q in the CHL import draft a few weeks back.  He has a few other options (including the AHL if he signs a contract), and is obviously not required to commit to his CHL team if he feels he is better served elsewhere. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 10, 2015, 12:40:04 PM

Kapanen over Nylander? Well, that's one way for a list to lose all of it's credibility I guess.

I was just coming here to say this, he's arguably the best prospect.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: moon111 on August 10, 2015, 06:47:02 PM
I wouldn't bring up young players if they were better then what we have now on one-year contracts.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 11, 2015, 04:39:57 PM
Corey Pronman's team rankings by prospect strength:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13413499/nhl-ranking-every-nhl-team-prospect-strength

If you don't have a subscription: some kind soul on reddit (https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/3glqlt/pronman_leafs_have_2nd_best_prospect_system_in/ctz8p8g) has posted the text.

Spoiler Alert: Edmonton is first.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 11, 2015, 05:32:03 PM
"The Leafs' system has skyrocketed the past 12 months, following a great 2015 draft, key trades and progression from some prospects. Mitch Marner and William Nylander are true top-flight names, and they have a lot of depth in quality prospects, many of whom are in my top 100 overall NHL prospects column."
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Lynx on August 11, 2015, 05:35:47 PM
When have the Leafs ever been ranked in the top 10 for prospects, never mind number 2? And the article says they're only number two because of McDavid. This is uncharted territory for the team.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 11, 2015, 06:41:02 PM
When have the Leafs ever been ranked in the top 10 for prospects, never mind number 2? And the article says they're only number two because of McDavid. This is uncharted territory for the team.

It's just one man's systematic ranking...

but I can't help but feel...
(https://pando-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/2013/02/1-zoolander.gif)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 11, 2015, 07:13:48 PM
I value Pronman's opinion a lot more, but I'd be interested to find out how Hockey's Future ranks the Leafs system overall now.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 12, 2015, 09:56:58 AM
PPP's Top 25 under 25 (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25) is under way.

25. Christopher Gibson (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/10/9116757/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-25-christopher-gibson)
24. Matt Finn (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/11/9099921/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-24-matt-finn)
23. Scott Harrington (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/12/9128981/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-23-scott-harrington)
22. Travis Dermott (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/13/9146043/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-22-travis-dermott)
21. Dmytro Timashov (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/14/9149619/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-21-dmytro-timashov)
20. Carter Verhaeghe (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/17/9124151/ppps-top-25-under-25-20-carter-verhaeghe)
19. Frederik Gauthier (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/18/9168311/ppps-top-25-under-25-frederik-gauthier)
18. Nikita Soshnikov (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/19/9171705/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-18-evgeny-soshnikov)
17. Taylor Beck (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/20/9176481/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-17-taylor-beck)
16. Viktor Lööv (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/21/9166419/ppps-top-25-under-25-16-viktor-loov)
15. Josh Leivo (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/24/9195169/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-15-josh-leivo)
14. Jeremy Bracco (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/25/9202215/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-14-jeremy-bracco)
13. Stuart Percy (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/26/9198283/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-13-stuart-percy)
12. Brendan Leipsic (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/27/9199427/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-12-brendan-leipsic)
11. Andreas Johnson (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/28/9214991/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-11-andreas-johnson)
10. Martin Marincin (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/31/9223503/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-10-martin-marincin)
9. Richard Panik (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/9/1/9222159/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-9-richard-panik)
8. Connor Brown (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/2/9239037/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-8-connor-brown-minus-72)
7. Peter Holland (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/3/9248185/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-7-peter-holland)
6. Kasperi Kapanen (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/4/9247177/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-6-kasperi-kapanen)
5. Mitch Marner (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/7/9248995/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-5-mitch-marner-London-Knights)
4. Nazem Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri)
3. Jake Gardiner (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/9/9286333/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-3-jake-gardiner)
2. William Nylander (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/10/9299551/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-2-william-nylander)
1. Morgan Rielly (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/11/9302277/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-1-morgan-rielly)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 12, 2015, 08:46:53 PM
Corey Pronman on TSN 1050 talking about his rankings and why the Leafs are his #2.
http://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/08/12/corey-pronman-discusses-ranking-maple-leafs-second-in-prospect-strength/

Quote
Andy McNamara: Last year, the Leafs were ranked 17th. This year, you have them all the way up to #2. Why?

Pronman: A lot has changed in the course of a year. The organization has made a clear direction change in terms of how they think they’re going to win, which is over the long term. They’ve also changed the emphasis on the kind of players they want to acquire. I think you look at how their 2015 draft went; they bulked assets in terms of trading down, and then took really upside/ceiling-type of players. You’re thinking of Travis Dermott, or guys like Jeremy Bracco, and some other guys in the later rounds. And then they obviously were big on getting prospects via trade. I really like Brendan Leipsic, the guy they got in the Cody Franson deal. We can talk for a long time about the Phil Kessel trade and whether or not it was equitable, but Kasperi Kapanen and Scott Harrington are very good prospects. Obviously they got Mitch Marner fourth overall; William Nylander, Connor Brown had very good seasons. You put all this together and the farm system looks dramatically different from 12 months ago.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 13, 2015, 10:24:27 AM
More from Pronman, he released his annual top-100 drafted prospects list (http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13409426/nhl-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-lead-list-top-100-prospects) this morning, here's how the Leafs prospects fared:

4) Marner
6) Nylander
29) Kapanen
39) Bracco
72) Brown
77) Johnson
84) Harrington
97) Leipsic

I'm sure someone else online will do the math, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Leafs have the most amount of prospects in this list.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: pmrules on August 13, 2015, 10:38:14 AM
More from Pronman, he released his annual top-100 drafted prospects list (http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13409426/nhl-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-lead-list-top-100-prospects) this morning, here's how the Leafs prospects fared:

4) Marner
6) Nylander
29) Kapanen
39) Bracco
72) Brown
77) Johnson
84) Harrington
97) Leipsic

I'm sure someone else online will do the math, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Leafs have the most amount of prospects in this list.

I don't quite understand how Bracco makes the list at a high ranking, yet Dermott doesn't? 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 13, 2015, 10:52:31 AM
I don't quite understand how Bracco makes the list at a high ranking, yet Dermott doesn't? 

Pronman had Bracco ranked 16th and Dermott 95th in his pre-draft rankings. The scouting services were all pretty split on those two. I think ISS, FC, and Sportsnet had Bracco going ahead and McKeens, CS, and TSN had Dermott.

Generally speaking you'll never find a true consensus for prospects after the top crop of the guys you're looking at.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 13, 2015, 10:57:02 AM
I don't quite understand how Bracco makes the list at a high ranking, yet Dermott doesn't? 

Forwards are sexier.

More from Pronman, he released his annual top-100 drafted prospects list (http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13409426/nhl-connor-mcdavid-jack-eichel-lead-list-top-100-prospects) this morning, here's how the Leafs prospects fared:

4) Marner
6) Nylander
29) Kapanen
39) Bracco
72) Brown
77) Johnson
84) Harrington
97) Leipsic

I'm sure someone else online will do the math, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Leafs have the most amount of prospects in this list.

Thanks, CarltonTheBear!
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 13, 2015, 10:57:58 AM
When PPP compiled the rankings of all the big scouting services (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/6/5/8733437/averaged-2015-nhl-draft-ranking) and averaged our the prospects rankings they had Bracco listed 31st and Dermott 47th. It's generally considered that Bracco slid a bit in the draft and that the Leafs reached a bit for Dermott.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: pmrules on August 13, 2015, 11:12:43 AM
I don't quite understand how Bracco makes the list at a high ranking, yet Dermott doesn't? 

Pronman had Bracco ranked 16th and Dermott 95th in his pre-draft rankings. The scouting services were all pretty split on those two. I think ISS, FC, and Sportsnet had Bracco going ahead and McKeens, CS, and TSN had Dermott.

So, does  this ranking make you question whether Dermott was the right pick then at 34?  What did Shanny/Hunter see in him that others didn't?  I only ask because Pronman's opinion is quite generally a good opinion and he doesn't seem to be a fan of Dermott. 

I only ask because I'm still somewhat miffed at the 2nd trade down - not greatly miffed...just somewhat miffed.  The first trade down was potentially great as it could have ultimately netted us Merkley/Roy at 29 and Bracco at 61.   Instead we traded Merkley/Roy for 34 and 68 (Dermott and Dzerkials).  I can understand if the Leafs all felt that Merkley=Roy=Dermott, then yes, of course you do the deal as Dzerkials is a bonus.  But I'm not sure based on the rankings if that equation is correct.

Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?   
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on August 13, 2015, 11:25:57 AM
Does anyone know how many of the top 100 picks make it to the NHL eventually on an average basis?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on August 13, 2015, 11:37:37 AM
So, does  this ranking make you question whether Dermott was the right pick then at 34?  What did Shanny/Hunter see in him that others didn't?  I only ask because Pronman's opinion is quite generally a good opinion and he doesn't seem to be a fan of Dermott. 

Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?   

At the time I didn't mind the 2nd trade-down but yeah Dermott wouldn't have been the guy I picked, just based on what I've read about the draft. Since then though I've sort of learned to give Hunter & Dubas the benefit of the doubt. They clearly had a plan in regards to how many times they wanted to pick and who they wanted to pick. I think that everyone knows that I was on #TeamSprong for picks in that area and while I still think Marner/Sprong/Bracco would have been freaking amazing I'll live with what we've got.

The first trade down was potentially great as it could have ultimately netted us Merkley/Roy at 29 and Bracco at 61.   Instead we traded Merkley/Roy for 34 and 68 (Dermott and Dzerkials).  I can understand if the Leafs all felt that Merkley=Roy=Dermott, then yes, of course you do the deal as Dzerkials is a bonus.  But I'm not sure based on the rankings if that equation is correct.

I don't know if I'd look at the equation exactly like that. It's more like would you have rather picked one guy with a 43% chance of becoming a regular NHL player or had two draft selections that that each carried a 32-33% of becoming regular NHL players (values from Scott Cullen (http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819)). Given what we know about Dubas I'm sure that's how he looked at it.

Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?

Merkley was 44th and Roy 48th. Dermott was included as an honourable mention.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: pmrules on August 13, 2015, 11:51:21 AM
So, does  this ranking make you question whether Dermott was the right pick then at 34?  What did Shanny/Hunter see in him that others didn't?  I only ask because Pronman's opinion is quite generally a good opinion and he doesn't seem to be a fan of Dermott. 

Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?   

At the time I didn't mind the 2nd trade-down but yeah Dermott wouldn't have been the guy I picked, just based on what I've read about the draft. Since then though I've sort of learned to give Hunter & Dubas the benefit of the doubt. They clearly had a plan in regards to how many times they wanted to pick and who they wanted to pick. I think that everyone knows that I was on #TeamSprong for picks in that area and while I still think Marner/Sprong/Bracco would have been freaking amazing I'll live with what we've got.

That's kind of where I'm at.  I'll live with Dermott and Dzerkials, but will always wonder what if, depending on how Merkley and Roy perform. (And I guess You'd be doing the same with Sprong). 

Quote
The first trade down was potentially great as it could have ultimately netted us Merkley/Roy at 29 and Bracco at 61.   Instead we traded Merkley/Roy for 34 and 68 (Dermott and Dzerkials).  I can understand if the Leafs all felt that Merkley=Roy=Dermott, then yes, of course you do the deal as Dzerkials is a bonus.  But I'm not sure based on the rankings if that equation is correct.

I don't know if I'd look at the equation exactly like that. It's more like would you have rather picked one guy with a 43% chance of becoming a regular NHL player or had two draft selections that that each carried a 32-33% of becoming regular NHL players (values from Scott Cullen (http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819)). Given what we know about Dubas I'm sure that's how he looked at it.

Yes...of course they obviously feel that the chances of Dermott + Dzerkials > Merkley or Roy were pretty high, so that's why they probably did the deal. 

Quote
Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?

Merkley was 44th and Roy 48th. Dermott was included as an honourable mention.

Hmm...this doesn't help with my being miffed at the 2nd trade down - quality prospects were obviously available at 29.  I personally haven't seen any of these guys play, so I value a guy like Pronman's opinion a lot, so let's hope that Dermott plus Dzerkials don't let us down.   
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 13, 2015, 02:57:11 PM
Pronman's full list here: https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/3guroo/can_someone_post_pronmans_new_rankings_released/

Quote
4. Mitch Marner, C, Toronto Maple Leafs Age: 18 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 161 | 2014-15 team: London (OHL) Previous ranking: Not eligible
Marner was absolutely dominant offensively in the OHL, generating grade-A scoring chances with consistency and was among the top OHL scorers for most of the season. His puck skills, vision and creativity are elite. Marner skates very well, and while he's not the biggest or bulkiest player, he works hard and his hockey IQ somewhat translates to his defense too. There is some risk on his physical progression, but he also has the potential to be an elite scorer in the NHL.

6. William Nylander, LW, Toronto Maple Leafs Age: 19 | Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 192 | 2014-15 team: Toronto (AHL) Previous ranking: 4
After a bit of a bumpy draft season, Nylander had a fantastic 18-year-old season. His production in the SHL was among the very best by a player his age in recent memory -- he was very good at the World Juniors and in the AHL. He's a dynamic puck-carrying threat with the speed, skill and vision to make very tough offensive plays. His all-around play still has to come, but teams try to get him the puck when he's on the ice because he keeps control away from the opposition.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on August 13, 2015, 03:04:08 PM
All Leafs prospects included are as follows.

Marner 4
Nylander 6
Kapanen 29
Bracco 39
Brown 72
Andreas Johnson 77
Scott Harrington 84
Brendan Leipsic 97 
HM Travis Dermott.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 13, 2015, 05:34:43 PM

I don't quite understand how Bracco makes the list at a high ranking, yet Dermott doesn't? 

Pronman had Bracco ranked 16th and Dermott 95th in his pre-draft rankings. The scouting services were all pretty split on those two. I think ISS, FC, and Sportsnet had Bracco going ahead and McKeens, CS, and TSN had Dermott.

So, does  this ranking make you question whether Dermott was the right pick then at 34?  What did Shanny/Hunter see in him that others didn't?  I only ask because Pronman's opinion is quite generally a good opinion and he doesn't seem to be a fan of Dermott. 

I only ask because I'm still somewhat miffed at the 2nd trade down - not greatly miffed...just somewhat miffed.  The first trade down was potentially great as it could have ultimately netted us Merkley/Roy at 29 and Bracco at 61.   Instead we traded Merkley/Roy for 34 and 68 (Dermott and Dzerkials).  I can understand if the Leafs all felt that Merkley=Roy=Dermott, then yes, of course you do the deal as Dzerkials is a bonus.  But I'm not sure based on the rankings if that equation is correct.

Do you know where Merkley/Roy ended up in Pronman's rankings - I don't have access?

You're not allowed to ask that question. I can assure you out of personal experience.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Tigger on August 13, 2015, 11:07:45 PM
8 prospects in Pronman's top 100? That's a new feeling.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on August 13, 2015, 11:43:50 PM
8 prospects in Pronman's top 100? That's a new feeling.

Not to mention 2 in the top 6.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 14, 2015, 12:29:51 AM
You're not allowed to ask that question. I can assure you out of personal experience.

Or, rather, if you do ask the question try to avoid doing it while weeping hysterically, pounding your fists against the ground and proclaiming that it's ruined hockey forever.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on August 14, 2015, 09:25:31 AM

You're not allowed to ask that question. I can assure you out of personal experience.

Or, rather, if you do ask the question try to avoid doing it while weeping hysterically, pounding your fists against the ground and proclaiming that it's ruined hockey forever.

I don't recall Liz Taylor saying that in "Cat on a Hot Tin Roof. "
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 14, 2015, 10:13:12 AM

Regarding Dermott specifically, and I'll admit this might be a bit of a tangent, I think that something that's happened in recent years is that there's been a sort of type of defenseman that's emerged who isn't a particularly great skater or the most offensively gifted or a huge hitter or the biggest guy in the world but who the numbers love and whose value can be a little hard to pin down just via the occasional game. Guys like Jake Muzzin, Anton Stralman, Vlasic and so on.

Reading between the lines on the various things they've said about the pick, I think it's pretty reasonable to say that our scouting staff, whose ability to uncover talent in the OHL semed to be their primary selling point for a while, think that Dermott can be that kind of guy and, for the most part, players like that who don't have the most easily identifiable skillset will probably be over looked by a lot of people who evaluate prospects. Stralman was a 7th rounder, Muzzin a 5th rounder, Vlasic a 2nd.

Personally, I was for Kylington in that spot but I'm as suceptible to being easily impressed by one or two obvious NHL qualities as anyone.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 14, 2015, 10:50:25 AM
Is that similar to what Dubas said about Gauthier?

Quote
With Frederik, I think he’s the type of guy a lot of people who are big on statistics and analytics would say he hasn’t produced as much as some of these other guys. And that’s true, he hasn’t. Mike uses a phrase that some guys are scout players and some guys are coach players. Every coach wants a player like Frederik on their team. You watch him, his skillset, his skating, his ability to move with the puck a little bit out here on the ice, and it’s come so far. When you talk to Sheldon, when you talk to Mike, he’s one of the players they’re most excited about. I think everybody gets excited about the high end, flashy skilled guys, but with Sheldon and Mike – the people who are standing behind the bench – they get excited about him because he’s a guy you can trust out there in any circumstance. He’s great on faceoffs, he’s a big body, he plays extremely well defensively, he’s got a great stick defensively, able to get his stick on the puck and move it up the ice. He’s going to need to be able to be a little more assertive defensively and break out of our own zone quickly.

He’s a better player in that regard [advanced statistics]. There’s a couple players in this year’s draft that were eligible and then there’s a guy like Frederik, where people who are pure analytics people would say, “he’s not the type of guy you would suggest taking in that spot,” but if you go down to the shot attempts and the possession parts of it, he’s a guy that charts out extremely well. It’s just an interesting kind of paradox with where we’re at with hockey and advanced statistics. Frederik is a guy that’s a prime example, he’s a polarizing player in that regard. It’s interesting because baseball has gone through this already – people that have really strong defensive value – in hockey, how do we measure that? For us, he charts out really well in that regard.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 14, 2015, 11:11:48 AM
http://thehockeywriters.com/thws-top-50-drafted-nhl-prospects/

Some interesting choices here.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 18, 2015, 07:05:21 PM
Quote
Pronman's summary on the Leafs prospects from ESPN (http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/insider/story/_/id/13457041/top-10-toronto-maple-leafs-prospects-2015-16):
In one year, the Maple Leafs have quickly turned their pipeline around from mediocre to elite on the backs of trades and a strong 2015 draft class. The question I'd ask is: "Who doesn't believe in the little people?" because their system is very small, albeit dynamic.

Travis Dermott is a guy I wasn't too sold on heading into the draft, but after talking to a lot of hockey people about him in the following months -- and after a great under-20 camp for Canada -- I've been sold. He is a skilled two-way defenseman, but his value is tilted more toward offense. He rarely forces plays, and makes good outlets under pressure. He's slightly undersized, but does battle hard for pucks and shows fine defensive IQ.

Nikita Soshnikov will need some time in North America before he's ready to make an NHL impact, but he's toolsy, including above-average or better speed and puck skills, though he has work to do to round out his game.

Stuart Percy (11th) had an impressive start to this past season when he got a look up on the big club and showed fine. He's a very smart and safe defenseman who can make plays at both ends and has some skill. However, he's a pretty bland prospect in terms of upside and raw talent. Josh Leivo (12th) is a tough player for me to read. He's shown strong play at times during the past two years, getting a few NHL stints. He has size and above-average playmaking skills, quality all-around hockey sense, but there isn't a real "wow" factor to his game. He may be too bland to be an everyday NHLer, but he also has enough good tools to potentially get onto a third line.

The Leafs have above-average pipeline depth as well, with forwards like Nikita Korostelev, Dmytro Timashov and Carter Verhaeghe being young players with upside. I also liked the two-way play of defenseman Viktor Loov when I saw the Marlies play this past season.

Noteworthy prospect
Former first-round pick Frederik Gauthier has been somewhat stagnant as a prospect after being taken at No. 21 overall in 2013. He's big, and has improved his skating, with his mainstays being his great checking and faceoff abilities. I once envisioned a player with average offensive upside combined with high-end defensive skills when he was an under-18 player, but that reality is starting to look pretty unlikely, given his lack of development offensively during the past two years.

2015-16 impact
Both Mitch Marner and William Nylander will get looks at camp. If you'd asked me a few months ago, I'd have said I expected Marner to go down for a season to the OHL, but after how dominant he was at the Canadian under-20 camp -- where his strength seems to have gotten better -- he could be a candidate to stick. Nylander will be an NHL candidate too, and if not, he could spend about another half season in the AHL before a call-up. At some point, whether due to injuries or the selling of veteran assets, I think you can expect an insurgence of young players during the season between Nylander, Connor Brown, Scott Harrington, Percy, Leivo and others.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bullfrog on August 18, 2015, 10:34:59 PM
Soshnikov is "toolsy"?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on August 19, 2015, 09:28:43 AM
Soshnikov is "toolsy"?

Maybe he meant "toothy"?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 19, 2015, 09:34:52 AM
Soshnikov is "toolsy"?

Toolsy, as in he has the physical capabilities, but doesn't quite have the experience/technique to apply it as a complete package?

Speaking of Soshnikov:#18 on the PPP T25U25 (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/19/9171705/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-18-evgeny-soshnikov)

Quote
[PPP] talked to ESPN's Corey Pronman about Soshnikov and where we might expect him to fit into the Leafs plans this season;

PPP: Soshnikov is almost a forgotten man in the Leaf system, with so many new faces brought in this offseason. What can we look forward to from him?

CP: Very good puck handler and skater with high-end creativity, with a subpar off the puck game. Good not great prospect, but for sure arguably a top 10 player in that system.

PPP: Do you think his experience playing professionally in the KHL gives Nikita a leg up in trying to compete for an NHL job, or does he need seasoning in the AHL?

CP: That always helps but he'll need a huge summer training wise to be a guy to look for out of camp. Midseason or next season seems more realistic.

PPP: If Soshnikov succeeds in cracking the NHL lineup, where do you see him fitting?

CP: 3rd line player, maybe a 2nd in a best case scenario.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on August 25, 2015, 10:01:05 AM
PPP has Jeremy Bracco at #14 prospect http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/25/9202215/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-14-jeremy-bracco

Could be a great signing.  I think he should stay at Boston U, would allow him to play for the Marlies in 16-17
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 27, 2015, 09:33:29 AM
Today's T25U25 is #12: Brendan Liepsic (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/8/27/9199427/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-12-brendan-leipsic), who is smaller than his dogs.
Invalid Tweet ID
and always stays hydrated.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etnrGmcGhTM[/youtube]
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 27, 2015, 10:59:58 AM
Is that similar to what Dubas said about Gauthier?

I think Gauthier is a different phenomenon where he has one attribute that is easily identifiable and highly prized(size) and his supposed defensive ability was always what carried him to a first round grade.

You might know this and not me but I can't really think of a player who sort of fits the Gauthier mold in the NHL of being a primarily defensive center who the advanced stats guys love and will argue is much more valuable than traditional metrics show. In fact, the way I understand things, those guys tend to be players that possession numbers tend not to reflect well on as they're in their own zone a lot.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on August 27, 2015, 11:31:36 AM
Is that similar to what Dubas said about Gauthier?

I think Gauthier is a different phenomenon where he has one attribute that is easily identifiable and highly prized(size) and his supposed defensive ability was always what carried him to a first round grade.

You might know this and not me but I can't really think of a player who sort of fits the Gauthier mold in the NHL of being a primarily defensive center who the advanced stats guys love and will argue is much more valuable than traditional metrics show. In fact, the way I understand things, those guys tend to be players that possession numbers tend not to reflect well on as they're in their own zone a lot.

I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers.  I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players.  I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics.  But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 27, 2015, 11:40:27 AM
I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers.  I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players.  I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics.  But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.

Fair enough. Either way Gauthier isn't a guy who I think could be credibly said to have had his draft position largely influenced by how he might look to an analytically minded team and that was more my argument re: Dermott. That he might fit this new mold of defensemen without obvious attributes but who the numbers love. Gauthier seems to fit into a traditional concept of a 3rd line center pretty neatly.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on August 27, 2015, 12:03:27 PM
I think it's probably a situation where in junior a player might be able to have primarily defensive zone draws but overcome it in the possession numbers whereas in the NHL if they were given a same number of defensive zone draws it would be more difficult to post positive possession numbers.  I think there are probably a number of defensive first centre's in the NHL where the possession numbers aren't great but I think analytics people would still agree they are good defensive players.  I can't think off-hand of players who primarily play defensively the way Gauthier has (Malholtra maybe) and still put up really good possession metrics.  But maybe they look better by other ones, I'm not sure.

Fair enough. Either way Gauthier isn't a guy who I think could be credibly said to have had his draft position largely influenced by how he might look to an analytically minded team and that was more my argument re: Dermott. That he might fit this new mold of defensemen without obvious attributes but who the numbers love. Gauthier seems to fit into a traditional concept of a 3rd line center pretty neatly.

Yeah I think Gauthier was ranked based on scouts viewing of him, there were constant comments about his positioning defensively being so far advanced for instance.

Ideally the team will have traditional scouts having their expertise augmented by more statistics to enable them to do their job better.  I think you'll see more of the Dermott type players popping up in earlier rounds as their skill sets start to be noticed or targeted earlier.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 27, 2015, 02:37:15 PM
I don't have a full read on Dermott yet, but he sounds quite a bit like Stuart Percy in that he plays a very cerebral game with simple, efficient movement.

Gauthier I've heard more about now, and I think he's one of those players that most traditional and mainstream advanced stats will undersell because of his assigned role (stats being largely offense oriented). He didn't shoot much (only 1.9 shots per game) in his draft year as a rookie in the Q, but still put up near-PPG numbers as a shutdown centre.

His recent playoff performance (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-prospects/2015/4/15/8417487/gauthier-dominant-in-qmjhl-playoffs) was eye opening. I recently learned that he quarterbacked in football to a fairly high level before committing to hockey, which could explain a lot of his team-focus, on-ice vision, structured play, and more recently those feathered passes to infiltrate the offensive zone.

I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on August 27, 2015, 03:19:32 PM
I agree Herman, may be better to have him for at least 1/2 a years start as the first line Centre of the Solar Bears and get a ton of ice time and then bring him up at some point. For the first time in eternity we seem to have a glut of Centres.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 27, 2015, 03:32:38 PM
I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.

I don't think they should develop him based on the pretty slim possibility he becomes a top line or top 6 player as opposed to focusing on his more realistic top end as being a bottom 6 player.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on August 27, 2015, 05:23:28 PM
Can we still trade guy or is that window closed?  At this point I would like to see Bozak gone.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on August 28, 2015, 09:22:38 AM
I'd be very interested to see how Gauthier turns out if they use him like Patrice Bergeron down in Orlando, as opposed to a 3rd line centre on the Marlies.

I don't think they should develop him based on the pretty slim possibility he becomes a top line or top 6 player as opposed to focusing on his more realistic top end as being a bottom 6 player.

I just looked up Dubas' remarks on Gauthier again, and you're right, he's penciled in for the Marlies, but they're looking to expand his offensive role on the team.

From: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015/07/09/kyle-dubas-on-frederik-gauthier-william-nylander-and-more/
Quote
[Gauthier will] be with the Marlies. Sheldon really likes him. The more he sees him out here on the ice, he likes him even more. For us, we don’t just want to have him pigeonholed as this defensive center, we want him to grow as a player, we want him to expand offensively, we want him to be more assertive defensively – [Rimouski] was great spot for his development that he played so much. You could see it, especially in the Memorial Cup after the end of a long playoff run — especially in the later games in the tournament — you could see him start to try to conserve his energy and be a bit more passive and play a bit more in containment on defence. We’re going to want him to be more assertive, quicker, close on people quicker and get the puck moving up the ice, and I think you’ll see his offensive game expand from there.

Perhaps the Marlies top six is looking like:
Leipsic - Nylander - Brown
Soshnikov - Gauthier - Kapanen
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on August 28, 2015, 10:11:39 AM
I just looked up Dubas' remarks on Gauthier again, and you're right, he's penciled in for the Marlies, but they're looking to expand his offensive role on the team.

I'm sure they would love him to grow as a player. Realistically being a decent offensive option is probably going to be what separates a defensive player from 3rd or 4th line duties and obviously they'd prefer the former.

I don't think they're going to put too many eggs into that basket though.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 03, 2015, 11:08:33 AM
Peter Holland is PPP's #7 (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/3/9248185/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-7-peter-holland) T25U25, which means the top 6 are going to be some listing of:

I think it shakes out as: Nylander, Marner, Rielly, Kadri, Gardiner, Kapanen
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on September 03, 2015, 01:17:06 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bender on September 03, 2015, 01:21:42 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 03, 2015, 01:36:43 PM
Yeah, the criteria for each voter is a bit different and far from absolutely objective (just like mine!).

I feel like I have a pretty good read on Kadri (just above average 1st line centre with occasional flashes of brilliance) and Gardiner (2/3D) now, which is why I put the potential of Nylander, Marner, and Rielly above them. Kapanen is still young and has some flaws to iron out, but the ceiling is definitely higher than the NHL players he surpassed on this list (Holland/Panik).

Marner has the most to prove still of the top three, but he has all the right tools and attitude. Nylander has dominated everything he's been involved in and looks to be on pace to do the same this year with a full season in the AHL. Rielly is definitely an NHLer, but hasn't yet turned the corner to take on the 1D workload; it would've been really helpful to see that 1 more year in Junior + WJHC following his draft.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: skrackle on September 03, 2015, 07:35:35 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 03, 2015, 11:09:17 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 04, 2015, 01:06:49 AM

Or, you know, where a team drafts in the top 10 matters somewhat.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: skrackle on September 04, 2015, 01:30:20 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...

I expect the Leafs to be pretty bad this year, so if they end up with a great draft pick, plus whatever other picks/prospects they can trade for, maybe that will do it. They have some good prospects now, but I have a feeling they don't yet have the elite franchise player(s) that will win them a Cup.

Of course, I could be wrong on that as I haven't seen any of the younger guys play yet. But, the Leafs are attempting to dig themselves out of a very deep hole and I don't see it turning around dramatically in a season or two. Now is the time for them to keep stocking up on picks and prospects and get their development on track.

Maybe by 3 seasons from now, they are turning the corner. I hope they are. I do believe Babcock when he says there is pain coming, but it's more like pain is continuing. If the new management starts building the team properly instead of the shuffle the deck and hope for the best philosophy of the Nonis era, then 2-3 years isn't a big deal to me.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 04, 2015, 02:05:17 PM
how about Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Kapanen, Kadri, Gardiner?  We should wager!

1. Mitch Marner
2. Morgan Rielly
3. William Nylander
4. Nazem Kadri
5. Jake Gardiner
6. Kasperi Kapanen

I think the top 3-4 are fairly tough. It depends on criteria. Is Nazem Kadri being in the NHL worth more than Marner killing it in the O?  Or is Nylander doing well in the AHL worth more than either? Who knows.

That's a nice list of players. It will be fun to watch these guys develop. It also really illustrates the necessity of keeping the focus on drafting for the near future.

Ideally, the Leafs draft high and often over the next 2-3 seasons.

I really like signing short term deals for the likes of Winnik, Santo, and others who can be converted into 2nd and 3rd round picks at the trade deadline, and the current management seems to be savvy enough to get rid of players on favorable but expiring deals. That seems a pretty sustainable way to draft often.

But Leafs have been drafting high a lot lately -- top ten in 3 of the last 4 years. Given that they haven't been screwing up completely, do you really think it's likely they'll still be drafting high in three years? How many teams draft in the top 10 that often? I'm guessing only the more ineptly managed ones...

I expect the Leafs to be pretty bad this year, so if they end up with a great draft pick, plus whatever other picks/prospects they can trade for, maybe that will do it. They have some good prospects now, but I have a feeling they don't yet have the elite franchise player(s) that will win them a Cup.

They haven't drafted high enough to have the elite franchise player that makes for a perennial contender, no. But, as Nik points out, it matters where you draft, and they've been drafting high enough that I don't think they can engineer the suck necessary to draft in the top five through 2018.

They've already got Kadri and Rielly on the NHL roster. A lot of folks are saying Nylander might become a regular after the trade deadline and will be a full-time NHLer in 2016-17 (and, for a guy drafted outside the coveted top 3, he is rated the 6th best prospect in the NHL). I don't think Marner's the sort to spend a full year in the AHL (4th best prospect in league?), so he'll be up in 2016-17. And, if the Leafs are as bad as their roster suggests they'll be this season, they're looking at a top 3 pick for 2016. I don't recall the numbers, but not too many players drafted in the top 3 are sent back to junior.

So... I don't think they're contenders after next year's draft. But, even just looking at the first round picks and how they graduate into the NHL, I don't see how they don't have enough talent to be much worse than a young, borderline playoff team in 2016-17 (drafting 10-15).


Maybe by 3 seasons from now, they are turning the corner. I hope they are. I do believe Babcock when he says there is pain coming, but it's more like pain is continuing. If the new management starts building the team properly instead of the shuffle the deck and hope for the best philosophy of the Nonis era, then 2-3 years isn't a big deal to me.

I guess the question is what you mean by 'turn the corner.' Let's say there are bottom feeders/ tanks (who draft top 3), perennial losers & the deeply unlucky & 'rebuilding' (4-10), teams on the way up/down (10-20), contenders (21-30). Seems to me there are a lot of corners to turn between 'in a position to draft franchise talent that'll win a Cup' and 'contender.'

How long do you really think until they've 'turned the corner' from bottom feeder to something that doesn't pick at the very top of the draft?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on September 04, 2015, 03:36:51 PM
Herman & Bender win todays version of pick a pick; #6 is Kapanen as the big the H & B predicted.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 04, 2015, 05:35:56 PM
But, as Nik points out, it matters where you draft, and they've been drafting high enough that I don't think they can engineer the suck necessary to draft in the top five through 2018.

That assumes that the players in the Leafs system not only make the NHL in the next couple of years but that they're immediately significant difference makers. That's something that is genuinely uncommon for players picked where the Leafs have been picking. The Leafs have not been picking at the spots that enabled teams like the Lightning, Penguins or Blackhawks to make a quick turnaround.

And, if the Leafs are as bad as their roster suggests they'll be this season, they're looking at a top 3 pick for 2016. I don't recall the numbers, but not too many players drafted in the top 3 are sent back to junior.

Again, your point only works as a vague generality rather than a pesky specific.

In the five drafts prior to this year, 7 out of 15 players taken in the top three spent a significant amount of their next season in Junior(I'm including Draisatl/Galchenyuk who played partial seasons in the NHL but who didn't make much of an impact there regardless)

Of course if you really break it down it goes:

#1 Pick: 0
#2 Pick: 2
#3 Pick: 5

None of the #3 picks in the league over the last 5 years had impactful rookie seasons and 4 of the 5 spent their entire post-draft year in junior. Jonathan Huberdeau is the closest any of them have come to becoming an impact player.

Go back another 5 years and you have more success at the #3 pick with Toews and Matt Duchene in the picture but you also include Jack Johnson, Zach Bogosian and Kyle Turris. The idea that just getting a "Top 3" pick will lead to a quick turnaround is far from fact and, in actuality, the odds are pretty long against it. For the Leafs to have a quick turnaround they'll need legitimate franchise players who:

A) Usually do not develop from where the Leafs have drafted in recent years
B) Usually only turn up in the top 2 picks in the draft

So the Leafs need to not only be bad this year to have a really good shot at a player like that, they need to be lucky at the lottery too. So it's actually a pretty good bet that as bad as they'll be this year, they'll probably be for a year or two afterwards as well.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 04, 2015, 06:40:48 PM
Timing is an issue as well. You can usually be assured that you end up with a pretty good player drafting 1st overall, but, every so often, the best available guy is Chris Phillips. And, sometimes, that guy is good, but not franchise level good - like Fleury, RNH or Yakupov. There's a lot of variables at play.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 04, 2015, 07:30:39 PM
Timing is an issue as well. You can usually be assured that you end up with a pretty good player drafting 1st overall, but, every so often, the best available guy is Chris Phillips. And, sometimes, that guy is good, but not franchise level good - like Fleury, RNH or Yakupov. There's a lot of variables at play.

True. Also, even in a best case scenario anyone other than a Crosby/McDavid type prospect is going to take a year at least until they're making a huge impact. Players like Stamkos, Tavares and Hall all look like they're absolutely legitimate #1 picks but between the three of them their first seasons average out to:

75 GP, 23 goals, 47 points.

So not exactly guys who come in and take teams to the next level. In fact, after drafting those guys at #1 this is where those teams drafted the next year:

Tampa: 2nd
NYI: 5th
EDM: 1st

I could be wrong about this but in the last 10 drafts it seems to me that the only instances of a team drafting a player at #1, that player having a pretty significant season and the team taking a big step forward are Chicago with Kane, Colorado with Mackinnon and Florida with Ekblad. But what do those situations have in common? All of those picks were at the end of runs where those teams made multiple top 3 picks. Colorado had already taken Landeskog and Duchene in the top 3(and their "improvement" was short lived), Florida had Barkov and Huberdeau, Chicago had Toews and Barker(who, admittedly, didn't play a huge role in their improvement).

So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 04, 2015, 09:22:47 PM
So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.

Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 04, 2015, 09:45:26 PM
So it usually takes teams multiple shots at top 3 picks and those players coming together for a team to make that leap forward. Even the Penguins. They take Sidney Crosby after drafting #1 and #2 the previous two years, he has one of the all-time great rookie seasons and they finish...with the second worst record in the league.

Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

Yep.  And that's probably why the Leafs are drafting in larger numbers...increasing your probability of drafting an impact player. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 04, 2015, 09:51:54 PM
Yep.  And that's probably why the Leafs are drafting in larger numbers...increasing your probability of drafting an impact player.

That's the hope, yeah. Also why they overhauled the scouting staff. Trying to bring in better scouts, scouts with different perspectives, fresh eyes, etc. Gotta do everything you can to maximize your chances at finding quality NHLers outside the 1st round, and finding those unpolished gems.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 04, 2015, 11:13:50 PM
Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

Which is where the Leafs lousy drafting under Burke and potentially Nonis really hurts the idea of a "quick" turnaround. If you look at the Blackhawks then in the three years prior to them drafting Kane and Toews in the top 3, they drafted Hjalmarrson, Bickell, Boland, Brouwer, Seabrook, Byfuglien and Crawford. Go back another year and you add Keith.

By comparison, in the three years prior to the Leafs run of picks in the top 10 the Leafs have...Kadri. And outside of people expecting big things from Garrett Sparks or Stuart Percy I don't think any of those players are going to develop into NHL regulars.

So this idea that the core of the team that'll shoot out of the basement next year is Nylander, Rielly, Marner and whoever the Leafs pick next year is further hampered by the fact that there's just not much of a base right now. The Blackhawks taking the leap forward that they did wasn't just because of their two teenaged superstars, it was that they had a whole bunch of 23 and 24 year old players who were able to competently fill roles. The Leafs aren't in that position.

Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 05, 2015, 11:57:40 AM
Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

Which is where the Leafs lousy drafting under Burke and potentially Nonis really hurts the idea of a "quick" turnaround. If you look at the Blackhawks then in the three years prior to them drafting Kane and Toews in the top 3, they drafted Hjalmarrson, Bickell, Boland, Brouwer, Seabrook, Byfuglien and Crawford. Go back another year and you add Keith.

By comparison, in the three years prior to the Leafs run of picks in the top 10 the Leafs have...Kadri. And outside of people expecting big things from Garrett Sparks or Stuart Percy I don't think any of those players are going to develop into NHL regulars.

So this idea that the core of the team that'll shoot out of the basement next year is Nylander, Rielly, Marner and whoever the Leafs pick next year is further hampered by the fact that there's just not much of a base right now. The Blackhawks taking the leap forward that they did wasn't just because of their two teenaged superstars, it was that they had a whole bunch of 23 and 24 year old players who were able to competently fill roles. The Leafs aren't in that position.

I think this kind of lends to my contention that Gardiner and Kadri may not fit this rebuild because they're just a bit too old.

Given the Chicago template, I'd prefer the Leafs to acquire a couple more 19-21 year old high-upside defensemen...a couple of years ahead of Marner/Nylander.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: L K on September 05, 2015, 01:10:12 PM
Also, to really turn from a bottom feeder into a Cup contender, you have hit a couple homeruns outside the 1st round. You have find the Keiths, Letangs, etc, and they're much harder to put a timeline on finding. If you're lucky, you already have a couple guys like that in the system when you're bottoming out, but most teams don't, and a lot of teams never find them.

Which is where the Leafs lousy drafting under Burke and potentially Nonis really hurts the idea of a "quick" turnaround. If you look at the Blackhawks then in the three years prior to them drafting Kane and Toews in the top 3, they drafted Hjalmarrson, Bickell, Boland, Brouwer, Seabrook, Byfuglien and Crawford. Go back another year and you add Keith.

By comparison, in the three years prior to the Leafs run of picks in the top 10 the Leafs have...Kadri. And outside of people expecting big things from Garrett Sparks or Stuart Percy I don't think any of those players are going to develop into NHL regulars.

So this idea that the core of the team that'll shoot out of the basement next year is Nylander, Rielly, Marner and whoever the Leafs pick next year is further hampered by the fact that there's just not much of a base right now. The Blackhawks taking the leap forward that they did wasn't just because of their two teenaged superstars, it was that they had a whole bunch of 23 and 24 year old players who were able to competently fill roles. The Leafs aren't in that position.

I think this kind of lends to my contention that Gardiner and Kadri may not fit this rebuild because they're just a bit too old.

Given the Chicago template, I'd prefer the Leafs to acquire a couple more 19-21 year old high-upside defensemen...a couple of years ahead of Marner/Nylander.

I think that's a bit of an exaggerated concern.  Realistically we are looking at 4-5 years before this team is doing serious damage and at that time Kadri and Gardiner are going to be 30.  It's not like they are going to be 37 year old guys who aren't able to keep up at that point.  If anything that might be the prime period of Gardiner's career and Kadri would have more of a veteran role on the team at that point.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 05, 2015, 02:44:49 PM
Timing is an issue as well. You can usually be assured that you end up with a pretty good player drafting 1st overall, but, every so often, the best available guy is Chris Phillips. And, sometimes, that guy is good, but not franchise level good - like Fleury, RNH or Yakupov. There's a lot of variables at play.

True. Also, even in a best case scenario anyone other than a Crosby/McDavid type prospect is going to take a year at least until they're making a huge impact. Players like Stamkos, Tavares and Hall all look like they're absolutely legitimate #1 picks but between the three of them their first seasons average out to:

75 GP, 23 goals, 47 points.

So not exactly guys who come in and take teams to the next level. In fact, after drafting those guys at #1 this is where those teams drafted the next year:

Well, that's part of an answer to my question (how long can the Leafs suck/ draft in the franchise-level elite spot?). Nylander and Marner joining the team shouldn't hurt that too much. But is this team as stripped down as the Chicago teams that drafted Kane and Toews? The one that drafted Crosby? -- There are still some serviceable, albeit overpaid and so (apparently) unmoveable, NHLers on this roster...

I don't think the rebuild will be particularly fast because they've already got some good players. I'm not optimistic about that. But I'm not optimistic that they'll be drafting in the lottery range as often/for as long as we'd like if (a) they haven't moved out any talent besides Kessel, (b) have improved their coaching staff, (c) are getting better at identifying useful contributors in the FA market, and (d) have some high-end talent joining the team in relatively near future...  Does it only seem possible to me the closest they get to the Kanes, Toews, Crosbys of the world -- the franchise cornerstone types -- could be Nylander, Marner, Rielly, and one of Puljujarvi, Chychrun, or Tkachuk?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 05, 2015, 02:49:46 PM
I think this kind of lends to my contention that Gardiner and Kadri may not fit this rebuild because they're just a bit too old.

Given the Chicago template, I'd prefer the Leafs to acquire a couple more 19-21 year old high-upside defensemen...a couple of years ahead of Marner/Nylander.

I think that's a bit of an exaggerated concern.  Realistically we are looking at 4-5 years before this team is doing serious damage and at that time Kadri and Gardiner are going to be 30.  It's not like they are going to be 37 year old guys who aren't able to keep up at that point.  If anything that might be the prime period of Gardiner's career and Kadri would have more of a veteran role on the team at that point.

At the same time, I think it's a pretty good time this upcoming trade deadline to spin Kadri, Gardiner, and van Riemsdyk off for 1st rd picks and/or high potential prospects more in-line with the 4-5 year window, and potentially help package off some of the harder to move pieces (Robidas, Lupul, Bozak).

Edit: I've been spelling JvR's name wrong all this time... =(
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 05, 2015, 03:51:08 PM
Well, that's part of an answer to my question (how long can the Leafs suck/ draft in the franchise-level elite spot?). Nylander and Marner joining the team shouldn't hurt that too much. But is this team as stripped down as the Chicago teams that drafted Kane and Toews? The one that drafted Crosby? -- There are still some serviceable, albeit overpaid and so (apparently) unmoveable, NHLers on this roster...

All bad teams have serviceable NHL players. Look at the Oilers the last couple of years. In addition to a ton of young offensive talent they've had guys like Andrew Ference, Boyd Gordon, Benoit Pouliot, Jeff Petry, David Perron...all guys who are legit players who have either played roles for good teams or that good teams thought enough of to acquire.

 
I don't think the rebuild will be particularly fast because they've already got some good players. I'm not optimistic about that. But I'm not optimistic that they'll be drafting in the lottery range as often/for as long as we'd like if (a) they haven't moved out any talent besides Kessel, (b) have improved their coaching staff, (c) are getting better at identifying useful contributors in the FA market, and (d) have some high-end talent joining the team in relatively near future...  Does it only seem possible to me the closest they get to the Kanes, Toews, Crosbys of the world -- the franchise cornerstone types -- could be Nylander, Marner, Rielly, and one of Puljujarvi, Chychrun, or Tkachuk?

I'm pretty confident that 1) the people running the Maple Leafs are at least as smart as I am and as such can figure out what I've figured out and 2) they can figure out a way to be at the bottom of the league.

As to the specific concerns:

A) Just because they've only moved Kessel this summer doesn't mean that's all they'll be able to do. We haven't heard much about them hard shopping Kadri or JVR or Gardiner but I'm guessing that if they did, they'd be able to find takers. Others, like Polak will certainly be dealt this year and quite a few of the "untradeable" players you mention might be more attractive to teams with less time on their contracts. The tear down, like the rebuild, isn't going to happen overnight.

B) I think you're both drastically overrating the impact coaching will have on a talent shy team's record and underestimating Babcock's ability to engineer the results the front office actually want.

C) The results of which have yet to be seen. All we know from the off-season this management team has had is that they've got no real interest in anyone who will credibly make a major impact in a short term sense and, realistically, very few guys who'll even be on the team next year.

Regardless, if they've gotten really good at identifying what UFA's will contribute heavily to a better record in the short term then, presumably, if they want bottom of the league finishes they can choose not to sign those players.

D) As mentioned previously, being realistic about the "high-end" talent the Leafs have in the system means expecting major contributions from them 2 or 3 years down the road which was the number of high lottery picks that corsi fenwick thought they'd have.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 07, 2015, 06:03:44 PM
#5: Mitch Marner (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/7/9248995/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-5-mitch-marner-London-Knights)

Quote
What we're seeing in voting this time around is a clear split in those who are voting with a "what can you do for me now" look at the top five and those who are looking for future potential. Marner had all his votes in the top 5, ranging from 1-5, but only four voters had him in their top two.

Followed by Scott Wheeler's own note in the comments:
Quote
I think there was way too much emphasis placed on the present here. Marner is without a doubt one of the best prospects the Leafs have ever had (in a nearly 100-year history). His value [to] the current state of the Leafs franchise (one that isn’t thinking in the present, though many of the voters did) supersedes the value of any of the current NHLers. Sans-McDavid/Eichel he’s in the first overall pick conversation. If he was taken there, I doubt we’d see him ranked where he currently is. The Leafs would deal Kadri/Gardiner/probably Rielly for another Marner without thinking twice.

My own opinion echoes Wheeler's. With Nylander/Marner/Rielly in the fold, I would trade Kadri/Gardiner/van Reimsdyk in a heartbeat for shots at drafting more of the former.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: skrackle on September 07, 2015, 06:58:20 PM
#5: Mitch Marner (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/7/9248995/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-5-mitch-marner-London-Knights)

Quote
What we're seeing in voting this time around is a clear split in those who are voting with a "what can you do for me now" look at the top five and those who are looking for future potential. Marner had all his votes in the top 5, ranging from 1-5, but only four voters had him in their top two.

Followed by Scott Wheeler's own note in the comments:
Quote
I think there was way too much emphasis placed on the present here. Marner is without a doubt one of the best prospects the Leafs have ever had (in a nearly 100-year history). His value [to] the current state of the Leafs franchise (one that isn’t thinking in the present, though many of the voters did) supersedes the value of any of the current NHLers. Sans-McDavid/Eichel he’s in the first overall pick conversation. If he was taken there, I doubt we’d see him ranked where he currently is. The Leafs would deal Kadri/Gardiner/probably Rielly for another Marner without thinking twice.

My own opinion echoes Wheeler's. With Nylander/Marner/Rielly in the fold, I would trade Kadri/Gardiner/van Reimsdyk in a heartbeat for shots at drafting more of the former.

So would I.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 08, 2015, 09:19:18 AM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 08, 2015, 09:48:20 AM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 08, 2015, 10:09:35 AM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2015, 11:23:49 AM

I think PPP is a good website but I fear we may be approaching a point where their rankings are being taken a little too seriously in this thread.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 08, 2015, 11:28:10 AM
Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

Draft Schmaft?

Really all this says is that a large chunk of the voters placed way too much emphasis on who the best player is at this very moment. Which is a weird thing to do in a ranking like this, but that's their prerogative I guess. I don't think that any of them would really say that Kadri's ceiling is higher than Marner's.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on September 08, 2015, 11:38:52 AM
Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

Draft Schmaft?

Really all this says is that a large chunk of the voters placed way too much emphasis on who the best player is at this very moment. Which is a weird thing to do in a ranking like this, but that's their prerogative I guess. I don't think that any of them would really say that Kadri's ceiling is higher than Marner's.

Well it's "Top 25 Under 25" so that might mean "most potential under 25" to some or "best right now" to others - they didn't set any parameters on it, seems they just let the voters interpret it and vote how they wanted. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 08, 2015, 11:51:42 AM
I'm only using the PPP list to help generate discussion. I like seeing others' opinions and views on these prospects and players. In this year's edition of the list, they collectively went in a direction that I personally would not have, but I'm not their staff, nor am I a professional hockey writer, so it doesn't matter.

One of their commentors put it most poignantly:
Quote
I understand how different people rank based on different criteria, but for the top 5 the criteria should be based on one question; If you had to pick one player between two, who would it be?

Kadri or Rielly?
Kadri or Nylander?
Kadri or Marner?
Kadri or Gardiner?

Even outside the context of our current NHL lineup situation and prime timing of prospects/contracts, I'd still put Nylander/Marner/Rielly as Tier 1 over Kadri/Gardiner/JvR based on their junior/pro numbers and projections.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2015, 12:06:05 PM
I like seeing others' opinions and views on these prospects and players. In this year's edition of the list, they collectively went in a direction that I personally would not have, but I'm not their staff, nor am I a professional hockey writer, so it doesn't matter.

Well, they put it out there for it to be consumed and, one hopes, thoughtfully criticized so it should matter what you think of it. Like CtB said, this seems like a strange exercise without stricter parameters of just what it was they were measuring but, well, it's the off-season and content needs a generatin'.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 08, 2015, 12:16:08 PM
I like seeing others' opinions and views on these prospects and players. In this year's edition of the list, they collectively went in a direction that I personally would not have, but I'm not their staff, nor am I a professional hockey writer, so it doesn't matter.

Well, they put it out there for it to be consumed and, one hopes, thoughtfully criticized so it should matter what you think of it. Like CtB said, this seems like a strange exercise without stricter parameters of just what it was they were measuring but, well, it's the off-season and content needs a generatin'.

I've given them so many page hits this offseason...

The T25U25, if anything, has proven to be a good way to generate interest ramping up to the rookie tournament and training camp. I peruse other team rankings for tradebait.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 08, 2015, 12:31:55 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That Kadri's really good -- elite in some ways -- and chucking a really good player that you've drafted and developed, who'll still be very good when you want your team to be good, for the chance to draft another really good player to develop seems... hasty? Pointless? I mean, until he's really tried out in the 1C role, seems trading him away would be Steen Redux.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bender on September 08, 2015, 12:42:28 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.
Dont follow
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 08, 2015, 12:44:50 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.
Dont follow

Getting rid of what good players you've drafted and developed to be a perennial loser draft junkie is dumb.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bender on September 08, 2015, 12:46:00 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That Kadri's really good -- elite in some ways -- and chucking a really good player that you've drafted and developed, who'll still be very good when you want your team to be good, for the chance to draft another really good player to develop seems... hasty? Pointless? I mean, until he's really tried out in the 1C role, seems trading him away would be Steen Redux.
We can still have another shot at the draft even with him in the lineup. But the time will come when you have to evaluate whether he will be valuable when we are competitive or if we should turn over the roster.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 08, 2015, 12:48:23 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That Kadri's really good -- elite in some ways -- and chucking a really good player that you've drafted and developed, who'll still be very good when you want your team to be good, for the chance to draft another really good player to draft and develop seems... hasty? Pointless? I mean, until he's really tried out in the 1C role, seems trading him away would be Steen Redux.

I've argued this for a while here, but I think it's a timing/cap issue with Kadri and Gardiner.

Like they'll be earning max-dollars in their prime within the next few years, and that production and cap $ wouldn't be very well spent given the core of the talent won't be properly productive until 2019-2020.

It's not a comment on Kadri's development or future production, it's more about what you could fetch for him right now that could develop into Kadri 2.0 timed with the rest of the talented core.  At that point, you maintain enough cap room so that you can look at adding FA's to supplement your core.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2015, 01:00:04 PM
I've argued this for a while here, but I think it's a timing/cap issue with Kadri and Gardiner.

Like they'll be earning max-dollars in their prime within the next few years, and that production and cap $ wouldn't be very well spent given the core of the talent won't be properly productive until 2019-2020.

It's not a comment on Kadri's development or future production, it's more about what you could fetch for him right now that could develop into Kadri 2.0 timed with the rest of the talented core.  At that point, you maintain enough cap room so that you can look at adding FA's to supplement your core.

I think it's some pretty simple math. Will having Kadri on the team over the next few years mean anything? Not really. When the Leafs get good again will an older Kadri provide anything vital? Honestly, you hope they have at least a few centers on his level or better.

So the actual benefits to signing him to the sort of long-term deal that would be needed to keep him around that long seem pretty small.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 08, 2015, 01:06:41 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That Kadri's really good -- elite in some ways -- and chucking a really good player that you've drafted and developed, who'll still be very good when you want your team to be good, for the chance to draft another really good player to draft and develop seems... hasty? Pointless? I mean, until he's really tried out in the 1C role, seems trading him away would be Steen Redux.

I've argued this for a while here, but I think it's a timing/cap issue with Kadri and Gardiner.

Like they'll be earning max-dollars in their prime within the next few years, and that production and cap $ wouldn't be very well spent given the core of the talent won't be properly productive until 2019-2020.

It's not a comment on Kadri's development or future production, it's more about what you could fetch for him right now that could develop into Kadri 2.0 timed with the rest of the talented core.  At that point, you maintain enough cap room so that you can look at adding FA's to supplement your core.

I hear what you're saying, mr grieves, and for such an elite player, I'd wholeheartedly agree.

I see Kadri as being just short of his peak, on a really good contract with a very good opportunity coming up this year to shine as the go-to guy. Gardiner and JvR as well. Are they the untouchable core of a championship-calibre team though? Ehhh...

By my (admittedly inexpert) assessment of their play and projections, they're more valuable to me as top dollar trade chips than as roster players at this time. All three of them are going to hit pay dirt on their next contracts and I'd rather have the cap flexibility.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on September 08, 2015, 01:10:27 PM
Just a housekeeping observation: judging from the activity in this thread, and the deadness of the threads on the main board, I wonder if the prospects talk shouldn't be moved to the main board?  The prospects are going to be vastly more interesting than the actual team for at least a couple of years.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: hockeyfan1 on September 08, 2015, 03:54:15 PM
I see Kadri as potential trade deadline bait. 

(His one year extension will soon thereafter expire and giving him his desired long-term contract will no doubt be put in question).

If the Leafs let Kadri go, they risk losing out.  If they keep him long-term, there may be questions marks (depending on in which direction the team decides to proceed with it's stock of talent).  If he's traded for future draft prospects (perhaps together with some other player), the return should be favourable.

So, where's Kadri gonna be -- continuuing as a Leaf, or, an eventual goner?

Personally-speaking, I like Kadri and what he brings to his game.  Long-term, he can be a 'mentor' to the younger players on the team, having been a draft pick himself and having gone through the rigors of what it takes to make the team and to playin the league.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: mr grieves on September 08, 2015, 06:40:14 PM
Kadri (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/8/9270501/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-4-nazem-kadri) is #4

Reminding us why a 'shot' at another shiny new toy like Nylander or Marner doesn't make a lot of sense.

I don't understand what you're saying here.

That Kadri's really good -- elite in some ways -- and chucking a really good player that you've drafted and developed, who'll still be very good when you want your team to be good, for the chance to draft another really good player to develop seems... hasty? Pointless? I mean, until he's really tried out in the 1C role, seems trading him away would be Steen Redux.
We can still have another shot at the draft even with him in the lineup. But the time will come when you have to evaluate whether he will be valuable when we are competitive or if we should turn over the roster.

Sure, and my argument with the original post was the proposed timeframe of "in a heartbeat." The time you're talking about hasn't yet come -- need to see how he does in a greater role, how his next contract is looking, etc. I expect this year will be about seeing if Kadri's as good as those advanced stats suggest, if he can become a leader on the team over the next few years. It wouldn't be bad to have someone in that role who came up through the organization (beats trying to buy 'leadership' on the UFA market...). And even then, if the contract demands exceed the value wildly -- yeah, move him. But the fact that he won't be an RFA forever doesn't, on its face, bother me.

My underlying discomfort is with this idea of planning to be horrible to the extent that it becomes self-defeating. I think good teams hold on to the good players they develop, and don't go out of their way to sustain terribleness. After all, the Blackhawks had a mid-20s Patrick Sharp on their roster the season they drafted Toews, the one before they drafted Kane.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 08, 2015, 09:12:58 PM
Patrick Sharp was a 25 year old former 3rd round pick, making $500K, and a  fringe NHLer when the Hawks acquired him for peanuts from the Flyers 10 years ago.

Not a Kadri comparable situation at all.  Patrick Sharp wasn't worth then what Kadri will be worth this season.

Kadri could net you significant assets that could help this rebuild keep moving in the right direction, and really, the Leafs don't have too many of those kinds of guys right now.

EDIT:..and furthermore, the Hawks also drafted Skille at #7, and Kyle Beach at #11 in the past 10 years.  The Leafs are likely going to draft some duds as well.  They also got into a cap problem, and reluctantly traded away Byfuglien along with a couple of guys (Sopel and Eager) for picks just to dump some cap.  And to get to some of these cups, they had to sign some expensive guys to cap-circumvention deals to make it work. 

It's why I've argued that this tear-down and rebuild needs to be moving more quickly here.


Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 08, 2015, 10:25:17 PM
Sure, and my argument with the original post was the proposed timeframe of "in a heartbeat." The time you're talking about hasn't yet come -- need to see how he does in a greater role, how his next contract is looking, etc. I expect this year will be about seeing if Kadri's as good as those advanced stats suggest, if he can become a leader on the team over the next few years. It wouldn't be bad to have someone in that role who came up through the organization (beats trying to buy 'leadership' on the UFA market...). And even then, if the contract demands exceed the value wildly -- yeah, move him. But the fact that he won't be an RFA forever doesn't, on its face, bother me.

My underlying discomfort is with this idea of planning to be horrible to the extent that it becomes self-defeating. I think good teams hold on to the good players they develop, and don't go out of their way to sustain terribleness. After all, the Blackhawks had a mid-20s Patrick Sharp on their roster the season they drafted Toews, the one before they drafted Kane.

Looking at the rest of the roster, is hanging on to Kadri going to net us a championship? Or does he have more value to a team that is not looking to compete for a championship in the next two years as a tradechip to net a 1st Rd + prospect + cap space?

Kadri is not Toews/Stamkos/Taveres elite. I think he's really good, and I like him on the team, but he is not in the conversation of top 1Cs in the league, and he certainly will not be when we're truly driving for the Cup 3+ years from now.

I agree with the principle of what you're saying, just not as it relates to Kadri. Using PPP's ranking to demonstrate that Kadri is the type of elite player you pay all the moneys to is confusing to me.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 08, 2015, 10:28:25 PM
It's why I've argued that this tear-down and rebuild needs to be moving more quickly here.

And, it will. It just didn't all have to get done this summer. There's really not a whole lot of difference between a trade getting done in July and one getting done at the trade deadline. In fact, the returns will likely be better at the deadline. Moving Kessel was really the only pressing move. That would have been an unnecessary distraction. If it takes a couple seasons to get it all done, that's fine. That's a pretty good timeline to make it happen.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 08, 2015, 11:42:59 PM
My underlying discomfort is with this idea of planning to be horrible to the extent that it becomes self-defeating. I think good teams hold on to the good players they develop, and don't go out of their way to sustain terribleness. After all, the Blackhawks had a mid-20s Patrick Sharp on their roster the season they drafted Toews, the one before they drafted Kane.

But, again, that was when the Blackhawks were near the end of the process, not at the beginning. The 2003-2004 Blackhawks had 4 players who were under 25 and who scored 20+ goals. Not a single one of them would be on the team when they made it back to the playoffs in 08-09. The Blackhawks, when they were beginning to rebuild, traded a lot of promising young players off the team.

Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 09, 2015, 10:39:50 AM
But, again, that was when the Blackhawks were near the end of the process, not at the beginning. The 2003-2004 Blackhawks had 4 players who were under 25 and who scored 20+ goals. Not a single one of them would be on the team when they made it back to the playoffs in 08-09. The Blackhawks, when they were beginning to rebuild, traded a lot of promising young players off the team.

Most of those players that you mentioned were basically out of the NHL by the time Chicago made it back to the playoffs though. Tuomo Ruutu was the only one who stuck in the NHL and he was also the only one that was traded for anything noteworthy. So I'm really not sure you could compare those guys to Gardiner and Kadri. I wouldn't trade either of them for the combined returns of Arnason/Bell/Calder.

I don't think the 08/09 Blackhawks having basically nobody over the age of 25 was part of some master plan. Their drafting and development was just pretty putrid in the years prior to their Toews/Kane coming along and they didn't have any legit impact NHLers in those years. They weren't trading Kadri/Gardiner types away, they were trading guys like Stajan and Ponikarovsky.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 09, 2015, 10:47:36 AM
Most of those players that you mentioned were basically out of the NHL by the time Chicago made it back to the playoffs though. Tuomo Ruutu was the only one who stuck in the NHL and he was also the only one that was traded for anything noteworthy. So I'm really not sure you could compare those guys to Gardiner and Kadri. I wouldn't trade either of them for the combined returns of Arnason/Bell/Calder.

I don't really see that as being a rebuttal to anything I said though. Bell was a pretty high draft pick(8th over all coincidentally) so I don't think that Chicago knew that he'd flame out the way he did. Unless, of course, the off-ice problems that did eventually derail Bell's career were ones that the Blackhawks were aware of and tried to deal with.

Although, you know, not that that has any relevance to the situation here. 

I don't think the 08/09 Blackhawks having basically nobody over the age of 25 was part of some master plan. Their drafting and development was just pretty putrid in the years prior to their Toews/Kane coming along and they didn't have any legit impact NHLers in those years. They weren't trading Kadri/Gardiner types away, they were trading guys like Stajan and Ponikarovsky.

I think that's chiefly said with the benefit of hindsight though. These were young players having pretty good years and the extent to which Kadri or Gardner are "impact" NHL players is pretty debatable.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on September 09, 2015, 11:07:22 AM
But you can look at their trade returns to get a good idea as to how they valued those players or what Chicago's thinking was then they dealt them. Arnason was moved for a 2nd rounder and a 24-year old AHL scoring stud. Bell and Calder were both actually moved for older players (Havlat, Smolinski, Handzus). Havlat was a big part of their first playoff appearance and Handzus probably would have been if it wasn't for a freak injury that limited him to just 8 games as a Hawk.

Based on those moves I just don't think that those guys were traded for the same reason that some want Kadri and Gardiner moved. Especially since two of them were traded for older, established NHL forwards and the idea behind moving Kadri and Gardiner is largely based around the idea that they're too old.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 09, 2015, 11:24:08 AM
But you can look at their trade returns to get a good idea as to how they valued those players or what Chicago's thinking was then they dealt them. Arnason was moved for a 2nd rounder and a 24-year old AHL scoring stud. Bell and Calder were both actually moved for older players (Havlat, Smolinski, Handzus). Havlat was a big part of their first playoff appearance and Handzus probably would have been if it wasn't for a freak injury that limited him to just 8 games as a Hawk.

Based on those moves I just don't think that those guys were traded for the same reason that some want Kadri and Gardiner moved. Especially since two of them were traded for older, established NHL forwards and the idea behind moving Kadri and Gardiner is largely based around the idea that they're too old.

Then are you referring to people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild? Because I'm referring to the people who want them moved primarily so the team can bottom out and add players who, hopefully, will be on a comparable level to Toews and Kane and the return the Blackhawks got on those guys seem like a pretty clear indication that despite whatever promise they may have had they wanted them gone so they could bottom out as efficiently as possible.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 09, 2015, 11:52:12 AM
But you can look at their trade returns to get a good idea as to how they valued those players or what Chicago's thinking was then they dealt them. Arnason was moved for a 2nd rounder and a 24-year old AHL scoring stud. Bell and Calder were both actually moved for older players (Havlat, Smolinski, Handzus). Havlat was a big part of their first playoff appearance and Handzus probably would have been if it wasn't for a freak injury that limited him to just 8 games as a Hawk.

Based on those moves I just don't think that those guys were traded for the same reason that some want Kadri and Gardiner moved. Especially since two of them were traded for older, established NHL forwards and the idea behind moving Kadri and Gardiner is largely based around the idea that they're too old.

Then are you referring to people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild? Because I'm referring to the people who want them moved primarily so the team can bottom out and add players who, hopefully, will be on a comparable level to Toews and Kane and the return the Blackhawks got on those guys seem like a pretty clear indication that despite whatever promise they may have had they wanted them gone so they could bottom out as efficiently as possible.

Whoa, there are "people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild"?!
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 09, 2015, 11:59:20 AM

Then are you referring to people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild? Because I'm referring to the people who want them moved primarily so the team can bottom out and add players who, hopefully, will be on a comparable level to Toews and Kane and the return the Blackhawks got on those guys seem like a pretty clear indication that despite whatever promise they may have had they wanted them gone so they could bottom out as efficiently as possible.

I want both the picks and the bottoming out.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 09, 2015, 12:12:07 PM

Then are you referring to people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild? Because I'm referring to the people who want them moved primarily so the team can bottom out and add players who, hopefully, will be on a comparable level to Toews and Kane and the return the Blackhawks got on those guys seem like a pretty clear indication that despite whatever promise they may have had they wanted them gone so they could bottom out as efficiently as possible.

I want both the picks and the bottoming out.

I think the high returns Nik is referring to in group 1 are established NHL players (e.g. trading for Phil Kessel).
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bender on September 09, 2015, 12:54:02 PM
I don't know how they can have Gardiner at #3. Unreal. He's not bad but I think Marner will easily be better than him and one could argue Kadri is ahead of him on the depth chart as a centre I think.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 09, 2015, 01:00:09 PM

Then are you referring to people who want to move those guys because they think the returns on them will be super high and contribute heavily to the rebuild? Because I'm referring to the people who want them moved primarily so the team can bottom out and add players who, hopefully, will be on a comparable level to Toews and Kane and the return the Blackhawks got on those guys seem like a pretty clear indication that despite whatever promise they may have had they wanted them gone so they could bottom out as efficiently as possible.

I want both the picks and the bottoming out.

They're not mutually exclusive but I think that if the Leafs tried to trade Kadri now there'd be some pretty disappointing offers on the table.

It's why keeping Kadri(and to a lesser extent Gardiner) makes sense for this season. With an increase in ice time, #1 PP duties and better linemates, Kadri could very well play himself into a position where he could be pretty valuable next summer.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 09, 2015, 01:44:31 PM
I want both the picks and the bottoming out.
They're not mutually exclusive but I think that if the Leafs tried to trade Kadri now there'd be some pretty disappointing offers on the table.

It's why keeping Kadri(and to a lesser extent Gardiner) makes sense for this season. With an increase in ice time, #1 PP duties and better linemates, Kadri could very well play himself into a position where he could be pretty valuable next summer.

I agree, and as usual, I've probably done a poor job of explaining myself.

I think Kadri and Gardiner are trading chips that I would wait until February to move (or summer) for the reasons you described above.

It's JVR and Bozak, and the tougher ones, Lupul and Phaneuf, that I wanted moved out this summer. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 10, 2015, 10:12:42 AM
Here comes #2: William Nylander (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/10/9299551/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-2-william-nylander)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 10:25:20 AM
It's JVR and Bozak, and the tougher ones, Lupul and Phaneuf, that I wanted moved out this summer.

I'm guessing that the people running the team wanted Bozak, Lupul and Phaneuf moved this summer also.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 10, 2015, 11:58:52 AM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 10, 2015, 12:05:49 PM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?

I think it's more of the same rationale of trading pieces with value to get value back for the rebuild.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 10, 2015, 01:25:20 PM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?

I think it's more of the same rationale of trading pieces with value to get value back for the rebuild.

Value that is timed to peak when the team is slated to peak, i.e. high draft picks.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 10, 2015, 02:43:59 PM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?

He's probably the team's most valuable asset over the age of 25, which means he'd come with the best return, and will probably be on the downside of his career when the rebuild is coming to an end.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 11, 2015, 09:23:14 AM
#1: Morgan Rielly (http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/toronto-maple-leafs-top-25-prospects-under-25/2015/9/11/9302277/maple-leafs-top-25-under-25-1-morgan-rielly)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 11, 2015, 09:25:52 AM

I think this will be a very interesting year for Rielly. I think that most defensemen who eventually make it into the Norris conversation tend to show real signs of it within their first few years in the league. Not doing so wouldn't rule it out for Rielly but I think it would be a strong sign that he'd probably slot in that group just below that.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 11, 2015, 09:48:37 AM
I can see Rielly growing into a Drew Doughty-esque player.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 11, 2015, 09:58:12 AM
I can see Rielly growing into a Drew Doughty-esque player.

Right now that strikes me as a bit of stretch. Unless you just mean stylistically.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 11, 2015, 10:19:50 AM
I can see Rielly growing into a Drew Doughty-esque player.

Right now that strikes me as a bit of stretch. Unless you just mean stylistically.
I do mean stylistically, and not quite the raw numbers. Peaking at 80% Doughty would still be plenty elite.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on September 11, 2015, 11:42:40 AM
Don't forget when he was drafted, a few top scouts mentioned him in the same sentence with someone named Bob Orr. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 11, 2015, 12:23:27 PM
(https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/py-pcwJs3dwsaMOfOwTB9zFMv4w=/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3388640/rielly.0.gif)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 11, 2015, 01:04:19 PM
Don't forget when he was drafted, a few top scouts mentioned him in the same sentence with someone named Bob Orr.

Were they saying "There's no way that Rielly will be as good as Bobby Orr"?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on September 11, 2015, 01:05:42 PM
Don't forget when he was drafted, a few top scouts mentioned him in the same sentence with someone named Bob Orr.

No, they weren't. Not with any degree of seriousness. He was legitimately being compared to guys like Leetch. Any comparisons to Orr were either tongue-in-cheek or from people who were kissing Burke's behind.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on September 11, 2015, 01:23:08 PM
only repeating that a few scouts were comparing in a favorable way, not creating any hyperbole
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on September 11, 2015, 01:24:38 PM

I mean, who cares regardless? Schenn's defensive game was compared to Chris Pronger's.

Draft Day is a time for hype.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: L K on September 12, 2015, 02:30:21 AM
Don't forget when he was drafted, a few top scouts mentioned him in the same sentence with someone named Bob Orr.

They also called Schenn the next Scott Stevens.  Hyperbole flows rampant around the draft.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: OldTimeHockey on September 12, 2015, 09:01:25 AM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?

He's probably the team's most valuable asset over the age of 25, which means he'd come with the best return, and will probably be on the downside of his career when the rebuild is coming to an end.

Do we not need to hold onto some player over the age of 25 that resembles a hockey player? The good ones don't seem to make it to UFA anymore so holding onto a 30 goal scorer doesn't seem like that bad of an idea. especially a 26 year old one.

But considering how low Lupul's value is and how hard Phaneuf's contract is for a team to take on, I guess I can see why he'd be moved

I love having these conversations with myself.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: LuncheonMeat on September 12, 2015, 11:28:31 AM
Is there a reason I'm missing for wanting to move JVR?

He's probably the team's most valuable asset over the age of 25, which means he'd come with the best return, and will probably be on the downside of his career when the rebuild is coming to an end.

Do we not need to hold onto some player over the age of 25 that resembles a hockey player?

This guy has hockey player written all over him.

(https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/3e/cc/ca/3eccca0307e992a6b12c307ce6d55f0c.jpg)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on September 12, 2015, 11:45:47 AM

Do we not need to hold onto some player over the age of 25 that resembles a hockey player? The good ones don't seem to make it to UFA anymore so holding onto a 30 goal scorer doesn't seem like that bad of an idea. especially a 26 year old one.

But considering how low Lupul's value is and how hard Phaneuf's contract is for a team to take on, I guess I can see why he'd be moved

I love having these conversations with myself.

Yeah, it's more about getting some picks or prospects in that 18-21 year old range at this point to build up a strong base of talent for the team.  They aren't free, and the only strong currency the Leafs have to acquire these is JVR, Kadri, and Gardiner, and a little less so, Polak on an expiring contract and some of the 1yr. deal guys they signed this summer.

Getting a glut of high-upside prospects in and around the same age range is job 1 to get that needed talented core.  They can worry about adding UFA talent to supplement the core in 5 years.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: RedLeaf on September 12, 2015, 01:12:39 PM

Do we not need to hold onto some player over the age of 25 that resembles a hockey player? The good ones don't seem to make it to UFA anymore so holding onto a 30 goal scorer doesn't seem like that bad of an idea. especially a 26 year old one.

But considering how low Lupul's value is and how hard Phaneuf's contract is for a team to take on, I guess I can see why he'd be moved

I love having these conversations with myself.

Yeah, it's more about getting some picks or prospects in that 18-21 year old range at this point to build up a strong base of talent for the team.  They aren't free, and the only strong currency the Leafs have to acquire these is JVR, Kadri, and Gardiner, and a little less so, Polak on an expiring contract and some of the 1yr. deal guys they signed this summer.

Getting a glut of high-upside prospects in and around the same age range is job 1 to get that needed talented core.  They can worry about adding UFA talent to supplement the core in 5 years.

I guess trading away JVR/ Kadri or keeping them will be a pretty clear indicator of whether the plan is for a full on rebuild or not.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on September 13, 2015, 03:34:02 PM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/9/12/9296861/wheelers-top-25-under-25-ranking-explained

This was more in line with my perspective of 'value' to the rebuilding organization.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on September 17, 2015, 02:14:06 PM
I said somewhere two days ago that Finn would never wear a Leaf jersey. I better buy a lottery ticket.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on September 17, 2015, 09:43:26 PM
I said somewhere two days ago that Finn would never wear a Leaf jersey. I better buy a lottery ticket.

He could come back.  Really at this point it's just a possibility that it's delayed.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 27, 2016, 02:49:20 PM
Prospect Pools Ranked by the Bleacher Report
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2647891-nhl-draft-2016-results-re-ranking-every-teams-prospect-pool

Criteria (which is quite limiting when measuring some teams):
Quote
For our purposes here, a prospect is defined by eligibility for the NHL's Calder Memorial Trophy. That means we will ignore those players who have accrued 25 or more career NHL games or who have played two consecutive seasons of six or more games. We also ignore anyone who will be older than 26 by September 15.

Quote
1. Toronto Maple Leafs
Existing Talent
Forward: Mitch Marner had 44 points in 18 playoff games in the OHL last year; that was on the heels of a second consecutive 100-plus point season. William Nylander scored at a better than point-per-game pace in the AHL and didn't look out of place during a 22-game major league cameo. They are the two best forwards in the system, but they head up a pool that includes Kasperi Kapanen, Frederik Gauthier, Connor Brown, Brenden Leipsic, Tobias Lindberg and others.
Defence: KHL All-Star Nikita Zaitsev is a nice addition to a defence group that is decidedly overshadowed by the forwards. Even so, Stuart Percy, Rinat Valiev, Travis Dermott and Andrew Nielsen (who had a spectacular year) ensure there's talent to come on the blue line as well.
Goal: College free agent Kasimir Kaskisuo bolstered a system that already included the rapidly improving Garret Sparks and competent AHLer Antoine Bibeau.
 
2016 Draft Additions
Auston Matthews is almost unanimously acknowledged as the best player in the 2016 draft, a slick, mature two-way centre with top-line offensive ability. He has NHL size (6'2", 210 pounds) and experience playing the pro game; he will almost certainly jump to the major league immediately.

The Toronto Maple Leafs' draft didn't end with the first overall pick, though. They made seven of the first 101 selections, stockpiling prospects at all positions. The list is too long to go through individually, but we should at least highlight No. 31 pick Yegor Korshkov, a 6'3" winger who was passed over in two previous drafts but had a strong campaign in the KHL.

Summary
No other team in the NHL can rival the collection of talent the Leafs have in the system.

Quote
2. Arizona Coyotes
Existing Talent
Forward: The Arizona Coyotes are wonderfully well-stocked. Centre Dylan Strome has elite potential, though he faded a little this season. Christian Dvorak, in contrast, scored at nearly a goal-per-game pace in junior. Ryan MacInnis and Christian Fischer both progressed nicely too. All that wealth makes it a little easier to handle disappointing campaigns from Brendan Perlini, Nick Merkley and Henrik Samuelsson.
Defence: Kyle Wood was a nice addition at the trade deadline to a position of relative weakness, but he's not a high-end prospect. Neither is anyone else in the system.
Goal: With the graduation of Louis Domingue, Adin Hill is the best of a middling group of goalie prospects.
 

2016 Draft Additions
The Coyotes had some later picks too, but three players stand out as the team's primary haul from the draft. Clayton Keller was the club's first pick, seventh overall, and he is another exceptionally skilled centre for the team's already rich group of prospect forwards.

Jakob Chychrun slipped to No. 16, and Arizona was able to trade up and grab him; he has the potential to have the best career of any defenceman in the draft. Another defenceman, Anthony DeAngelo, was brought in from the Lightning via a trade, shoring the position up further. Just for good measure, the club added three other rearguards with later picks.

Summary
Arizona is bursting with forward prospects, and adding Chychrun and DeAngelo dramatically alters the team's situation on the blue line.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: TBLeafer on June 27, 2016, 03:29:24 PM
Quote
Summary
No other team in the NHL can rival the collection of talent the Leafs have in the system.

So I guess they can work to ice the most competent NHL team possible now.  ;)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 10:02:17 AM
We still have a few days until July. The draft is over, so I'm bored.

Top 10 Toronto Maple Leafs under 25 as of Jan 1, 2017, according to me:

Don't know enough, but still interested in:
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 28, 2016, 10:10:54 AM
I'd have Johnson above Dermott and Timashov, largely just because of what he's done as a pro. Zaitsev's the big question mark, he could definitely slot anywhere between 5-10 on that list (or not at all).
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Crucialness Key on June 28, 2016, 10:14:13 AM
I'd have Johnson above Dermott and Timashov, largely just because of what he's done as a pro. Zaitsev's the big question mark, he could definitely slot anywhere between 5-10 on that list (or not at all).

On that note, have there been any updates as to Johnson's recovery status? 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on June 28, 2016, 10:19:05 AM
I'd have Johnson above Dermott and Timashov, largely just because of what he's done as a pro. Zaitsev's the big question mark, he could definitely slot anywhere between 5-10 on that list (or not at all).

On that note, have there been any updates as to Johnson's recovery status?

There was something in the Swedish press about him where he said it took a few weeks before he felt fine again and that he's now started to do some working out again.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 10:21:53 AM
I'd have Johnson above Dermott and Timashov, largely just because of what he's done as a pro. Zaitsev's the big question mark, he could definitely slot anywhere between 5-10 on that list (or not at all).

I would have too, but I valued skating pretty high (as if I did this statistically -- ha); it is something Johnson can work on now that he is in the Marlie fold, once he comes back over from his recovery in Sweden.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: TBLeafer on June 28, 2016, 10:36:39 AM
FWIW here is my own top ten to contribute:

1. Auston Matthews
2. Mitch Marner
3. William Nylander
4. Connor Brown
5. Kasperi Kapanen
6. Nikita Zaitsev
7. Connor Carrick
8. Zach Hyman
9. Nikita Soshnikov
10. Andreas Johnson

HM's Dermott, Loov, Nielsen, Timashov, Valiev, Bracco, Lindberg, Rychel, Dzierkals, Gauthier in no particular order.

LOL, I guess that's actually a top 20 list, with an unranked 11-20 after all.   :)

I don't have Rielly there because I view him as a core NHL'er not a prospect.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 28, 2016, 10:37:13 AM
My rankings are more based on potential than how much has this player done in the pro's, hence having Marner ahead of Nylander.  Then again, Connor Brown looks like a solid 2nd line winger and Kapanen may have a higher ceiling than that, but I do like Brown more :)

1.  Auston Matthews
2.  Mitch Marner
3.  William Nylander
4.  Morgan Reilly
5.  Nikita Zaitsev (has 1st pairing potential in my eyes)
6.  Connor Brown
7.  Connor Carrick
8.  Kasperi Kapanen
9.  Travis Dermott
10.  Dymtro Timashov
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 10:40:52 AM

Looks like people are a little higher than Carrick/Brown than I am, less so on Bracco.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 10:43:56 AM
My largely subjective scouting ratings breakdown a la Button and video games:

PlayerSmartsSpeedStrengthSkillsScoringAverage
Auston Matthews5.05.05.05.05.05.0
William Nylander5.05.03.55.05.04.7
Mitch Marner5.05.03.05.04.54.5
Morgan Rielly4.55.04.54.03.04.2
Connor Carrick4.04.04.04.54.04.1
Connor Brown4.53.04.04.54.04.0
Kasperi Kapanen3.55.03.54.04.04.0
Travis Dermott4.04.03.54.03.03.7
Dymtro Timashov3.54.04.03.53.53.7
Andreas Johnson3.53.03.54.04.03.6

Feel free to disagree or whatever!
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 28, 2016, 10:45:09 AM

Looks like people are a little higher than Carrick/Brown than I am, less so on Bracco.

I'm kind of taking the same approach to guys like Bracco and Timashov as I did with Brown back in 2013-14. Gotta see them translate their play to the professional ranks before I get too excited about them.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Britishbulldog on June 28, 2016, 11:16:18 AM
I have seen some here mention don't trade anyone in 'The Big 4'.  I assume that it includes Matthews, Nylander and Marner but who it number 4?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 11:17:31 AM
I have seen some here mention don't trade anyone in 'The Big 4'.  I assume that it includes Matthews, Nylander and Marner but who it number 4?

I've been using it with regards to Rielly.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 11:17:53 AM
I have seen some here mention don't trade anyone in 'The Big 4'.  I assume that it includes Matthews, Nylander and Marner but who it number 4?

When I used the term Rielly was the 4th.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Britishbulldog on June 28, 2016, 11:23:37 AM
Thanks guys
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 28, 2016, 11:24:15 AM
Seems like some pretty serious underestimating of Andreas Johnson here, in terms of ceiling he might be our 5th best prospect and he's already had spells where he dominated in the pro's.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 11:27:02 AM
Seems like some pretty serious underestimating of Andreas Johnson here, in terms of ceiling he might be our 5th best prospect and he's already had spells where he dominated in the pro's.

I think there's a lot of waiting to see what he can do in North America. He's definitely a promising/intriguing prospect - but, at the same time, I'm not sure there's a ton of separation between the guys ranked 5th to 12th or so in terms of what their likely ceiling.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: TBLeafer on June 28, 2016, 11:27:27 AM
I still value Kadri ahead of Nylander, until Nylander shows otherwise.

Babcock is moving him to the wing as an NHL'er next season.

It's probably just me, but I think its MORE important to have a highly skilled, two way physical center, than another scoring winger who's play without the puck is highly questioned by Babcock.

Nylander also disappointed me in the playoffs.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Highlander on June 28, 2016, 11:31:24 AM
Ya Nylander floated for most of the playoffs and got serious for only one game.  I think he has a lot of competition around him. As Babcock said, Matthews will make Nylander better.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bullfrog on June 28, 2016, 11:39:19 AM
Seems like some pretty serious underestimating of Andreas Johnson here, in terms of ceiling he might be our 5th best prospect and he's already had spells where he dominated in the pro's.

I'm with you on this one. I just have a really good feeling about him.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bullfrog on June 28, 2016, 11:40:04 AM
My largely subjective scouting ratings breakdown a la Button and video games:

PlayerSmartsSpeedStrengthSkillsScoringAverage
Auston Matthews5.05.05.05.05.05.0
William Nylander5.05.03.55.05.04.7
Mitch Marner5.05.03.05.04.54.5
Morgan Rielly4.55.04.54.03.04.2
Connor Carrick4.04.04.04.54.04.1
Connor Brown4.53.04.04.54.04.0
Kasperi Kapanen3.55.03.54.04.04.0
Travis Dermott4.04.03.54.03.03.7
Dymtro Timashov3.54.04.03.53.53.7
Andreas Johnson3.53.03.54.04.03.6

Feel free to disagree or whatever!

No compete level? :-X
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 28, 2016, 11:41:51 AM
My largely subjective scouting ratings breakdown a la Button and video games:

PlayerSmartsSpeedStrengthSkillsScoringAverage
Auston Matthews5.05.05.05.05.05.0
William Nylander5.05.03.55.05.04.7
Mitch Marner5.05.03.05.04.54.5
Morgan Rielly4.55.04.54.03.04.2
Connor Carrick4.04.04.04.54.04.1
Connor Brown4.53.04.04.54.04.0
Kasperi Kapanen3.55.03.54.04.04.0
Travis Dermott4.04.03.54.03.03.7
Dymtro Timashov3.54.04.03.53.53.7
Andreas Johnson3.53.03.54.04.03.6

Feel free to disagree or whatever!

No compete level? :-X

I think it should be "Jam" level.  Then we rank them in terms of Jams, like Strawberry or Raspberry.  But first we need to rank the Jams.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 11:45:58 AM
I think it should be "Jam" level.  Then we rank them in terms of Jams, like Strawberry or Raspberry.  But first we need to rank the Jams.

1. Raspberry
2. Strawberry
3. Blueberry
4. Black Current
5. Apricot
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 28, 2016, 11:48:23 AM
What's the difference between jam and jelly?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 11:49:54 AM
What's the difference between jam and jelly?

When making Jelly you strain the fruit so that you're making it with, more or less, juice. Jam is just made with crushed fruit.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 11:50:56 AM
No compete level? :-X

I needed measurable S's.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 11:52:59 AM
I think it should be "Jam" level.  Then we rank them in terms of Jams, like Strawberry or Raspberry.  But first we need to rank the Jams.

1. Raspberry
2. Strawberry
3. Blueberry
4. Black Current
5. Apricot

Apricot seems like a choice out of left field based on your currant list. No mixed berry?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 11:55:05 AM
I think it should be "Jam" level.  Then we rank them in terms of Jams, like Strawberry or Raspberry.  But first we need to rank the Jams.

1. Raspberry
2. Strawberry
3. Blueberry
4. Black Current
5. Apricot

Apricot seems like a choice out of left field based on your currant list. No mixed berry?

I see what you did there.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 11:58:54 AM
Apricot seems like a choice out of left field based on your currant list. No mixed berry?

Alright, I see how we're going to be. Fine.

And Mixed Berry seems like cheating.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:04:16 PM
Apricot seems like a choice out of left field based on your currant list. No mixed berry?

Alright, I see how we're going to be. Fine.

And Mixed Berry seems like cheating.

Mixed berry is admittedly an abomination. Delicious, nonetheless.

I recently discovered the joy of lingonberry.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 12:09:40 PM
Mixed berry is admittedly an abomination. Delicious, nonetheless.

I recently discovered the joy of lingonberry.

I figured we were limiting ourselves to commonly available commercial jams.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:12:49 PM
Mixed berry is admittedly an abomination. Delicious, nonetheless.

I recently discovered the joy of lingonberry.

I figured we were limiting ourselves to commonly available commercial jams.

IKEA carries it if you have one near by. They're a touch sour for more common jam usage (toast), but really complements a savoury dish nicely.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 12:15:20 PM
IKEA carries it if you have one near by. They're a touch sour for more common jam usage (toast), but really complements a savoury dish nicely.

Savoury jams/jellies is a whole other list. Also, we'd have to figure out where Chutneys fit. This might not be a one-day project.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: L K on June 28, 2016, 12:21:53 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: TBLeafer on June 28, 2016, 12:23:57 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.

What is stickier?  Not many of Burke's picks seemed to have stuck around anymore.  :(
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:24:20 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.

Nut butter is a valid category to include in the ranking of jams (traditional), jams (savoury), jellies, and chutneys.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 12:34:29 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.

Nut butter is a valid category to include in the ranking of jams (traditional), jams (savoury), jellies, and chutneys.

What about other butters/spreads? Where would various cookie butters fit in? Nutella? Reese's spread?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:46:07 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.

Nut butter is a valid category to include in the ranking of jams (traditional), jams (savoury), jellies, and chutneys.

What about other butters/spreads? Where would various cookie butters fit in? Nutella? Reese's spread?

Nutella is a nut butter already, so it should slot in pretty high in that category.

Cookie butters don't really fit. They're not made of crushed plant gonads.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 12:49:11 PM
Cookie butters don't really fit. They're not made of crushed plant gonads.

Technically, they are. They're made of flour, which is crush wheat gonad.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 28, 2016, 12:50:17 PM
What about other butters/spreads? Where would various cookie butters fit in? Nutella? Reese's spread?

I was pretty excited when this came out but I found them waaaayyyyyy too sweet. Didn't even finish the jar.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on June 28, 2016, 12:51:25 PM
Cookie butters don't really fit. They're not made of crushed plant gonads.

Technically, they are. They're made of flour, which is crush wheat gonad.

I'm going to need to see a published report that explicitly links flour to wheat gonad.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 12:51:34 PM
Is cookie butter a common thing? I've never even heard of it until now.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:55:12 PM
Cookie butters don't really fit. They're not made of crushed plant gonads.

Technically, they are. They're made of flour, which is crush wheat gonad.

Fair point, I thought it was less direct, but a gonad's a gonad. Is the plant origin something that should be distinguished? Tree/Bush/Vine vs Grass/Grain? Do we make botanical or culinary distinctions?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 12:57:44 PM
Is cookie butter a common thing? I've never even heard of it until now.

Pretty common in European fare. It was hard to find here in Toronto when I last looked about 4 years ago. Seems more common now, i.e. PC has commissioned a reverse-engineered version.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Bullfrog on June 28, 2016, 01:33:32 PM
Marmalade.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 01:47:28 PM
I wish Burke was still here.  We wouldn't be talking about silly jams/jellies and would be sticking to a good old discussion on chunky peanut butter.

There's not much of a discussion to be had there. There are people who prefer chunky peanut butter and people who are wrong.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 01:48:01 PM
Pretty common in European fare. It was hard to find here in Toronto when I last looked about 4 years ago. Seems more common now, i.e. PC has commissioned a reverse-engineered version.

It's definitely becoming easier to find here, but we still don't have the variety offered at Trader Joe's.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 01:50:38 PM
I was pretty excited when this came out but I found them waaaayyyyyy too sweet. Didn't even finish the jar.

It's not as good by the spoonful as I hoped, but, as an actual spread, I find it's a pretty solid recreation of the peanut butter cups.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: CarltonTheBear on June 28, 2016, 01:51:49 PM
There's not much of a discussion to be had there. There are people who prefer chunky peanut butter and people who are wrong.

Finally, Nik says something that we can ALL agree on.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on June 28, 2016, 01:59:16 PM
Please let the season start.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 28, 2016, 02:50:07 PM
What's the difference between jam and jelly?

When making Jelly you strain the fruit so that you're making it with, more or less, juice. Jam is just made with crushed fruit.

Not the answer I had in mind, but you probably saved me from a banning anyway.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 28, 2016, 02:52:47 PM
Marmalade.

They have internet in deepest darkest Peru?

Amazing.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: bustaheims on June 28, 2016, 02:58:22 PM
What's the difference between jam and jelly?

When making Jelly you strain the fruit so that you're making it with, more or less, juice. Jam is just made with crushed fruit.

Not the answer I had in mind, but you probably saved me from a banning anyway.

Yours had something to do with an old joke about peanut butter, I would imagine.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 03:00:38 PM
Not the answer I had in mind, but you probably saved me from a banning anyway.

Working blue is the lazy man's comedy.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: WhatIfGodWasALeaf on June 28, 2016, 03:05:01 PM
Not the answer I had in mind, but you probably saved me from a banning anyway.

Working blue is the lazy man's comedy.

You know me so well.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 03:08:52 PM
Not the answer I had in mind, but you probably saved me from a banning anyway.

Working blue is the lazy man's comedy.

You know me so well.

Now to rank comedy styles.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 28, 2016, 03:13:47 PM
Seems to me like the last 2 pages of this thread belong in the Useless thread.

So, based on this...

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/27/12048420/keaton-middleton-comparable-colton-parayko

Middleton in anyone's Top 10 under 25? :P
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 03:30:23 PM
Seems to me like the last 2 pages of this thread belong in the Useless thread.

So, based on this...

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/27/12048420/keaton-middleton-comparable-colton-parayko

Middleton in anyone's Top 10 under 25? :P

Middleton's problems are decision making and moving. Both are fixable, but I'm not holding my breath for anything exciting out of him for the next 4 years. He's like growing our own meaner Marincin.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on June 28, 2016, 03:39:59 PM
Seems to me like the last 2 pages of this thread belong in the Useless thread.

So, based on this...

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/27/12048420/keaton-middleton-comparable-colton-parayko

Middleton in anyone's Top 10 under 25? :P

Middleton's problems are decision making and moving. Both are fixable, but I'm not holding my breath for anything exciting out of him for the next 4 years. He's like growing our own meaner Marincin.

I think you're being very kind.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Coco-puffs on June 28, 2016, 03:40:45 PM
Middleton's problems are decision making and moving. Both are fixable, but I'm not holding my breath for anything exciting out of him for the next 4 years. He's like growing our own meaner Marincin.

Funny, it seems his scouting reports are all over the place. 

Quote
While Middleton isn’t routinely ranked as a top prospect for the 2016 NHL draft, there’s no shortage of appealing assets to the hulking defensemen’s game. For instance Middleton boasts impressive mobility for a player of his stature, along with a lengthy and powerful stride that allows him to generate deceptively good speed and cover a large amount of ice in a small amount of time. While his puck skills aren’t elite, Middleton shows deceptively good vision and an ability to make a strong an accurate first pass. A player who shows poise and patience in possession, Middleton makes strong decisions in possession, rarely forcing plays as he keeps his game simple and takes whats given to him.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/27/12033998/why-did-the-leafs-draft-keaton-middleton

(BTW, I'm not sticking up for this selection.  Korshkov and this pick were my least favourite, but I didn't hate the rest of the draft like some others)
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: herman on June 28, 2016, 03:52:09 PM
I think you're being very kind.

Thank you; I try.

Middleton's problems are decision making and moving. Both are fixable, but I'm not holding my breath for anything exciting out of him for the next 4 years. He's like growing our own meaner Marincin.

Funny, it seems his scouting reports are all over the place. 

Quote
While Middleton isn’t routinely ranked as a top prospect for the 2016 NHL draft, there’s no shortage of appealing assets to the hulking defensemen’s game. For instance Middleton boasts impressive mobility for a player of his stature, along with a lengthy and powerful stride that allows him to generate deceptively good speed and cover a large amount of ice in a small amount of time. While his puck skills aren’t elite, Middleton shows deceptively good vision and an ability to make a strong an accurate first pass. A player who shows poise and patience in possession, Middleton makes strong decisions in possession, rarely forcing plays as he keeps his game simple and takes whats given to him.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2016/6/27/12033998/why-did-the-leafs-draft-keaton-middleton

(BTW, I'm not sticking up for this selection.  Korshkov and this pick were my least favourite, but I didn't hate the rest of the draft like some others)

Yup, this one no one knows what to do with.

In that same article:
Quote
Middleton has huge size and a massive frame, which can make him tough to get around. He has a pretty good stick and loves the physical stuff in his own zone. His balance and skating need improvement, but they have come miles since his Minor Midget season. Keaton's puck play has also come along over the past couple years, he is often able to make the smart simple pass up ice. He still makes a fair amount of puck mistakes and can get stripped, but he has shown consistent improvement in this area. He is a relentless competitor along the wall and wins a ton of battles through his size, strength and a relative comfort in these types of situations. Middleton played top minutes 5 on 5 and on the penalty kill, and secondary minutes on the power play. He's relentless in the slot area, making life difficult for forwards and has the reach to take away passes shorthanded. He's not an over the top fighter, but he has good toughness and isn't afraid to drop the gloves when necessary.

And then from the original article you posted, one of the commentors dug up:
Quote
From Brock Otten /OHL Prospects (#35 of top 50 OHL draftees)

35. Keaton Middleton – Defence – Saginaw Spirit
Hulking defender (6’6, 235lbs) who is still scratching the surface of his potential. Even if he didn’t have the greatest of seasons, I’m still a fan. Look at it this way. If both players reach their high end potential, is there really much separating Middleton and Logan Stanley? Stanley is without a doubt progressing quicker and demonstrating more now, but is that a guarantee 5 years from now? You’ll have to use a 1st or 2nd on Stanley, but you could have Middleton in the mid rounds. Keaton, the brother of 67’s defender Jacob (and one of the best defensive defenders in the OHL), has so much potential as a stay at home blueliner. He’s got a great stick and he does a great job of using his long reach to disrupt passing lanes. Middleton is also an incredibly physical player who loves to engage forwards cutting across the blueline or in front of the net. The key to his development moving forward is his lateral and backwards mobility, and his puck distribution ability. These two areas of his game remain works in progress and they are why he struggled at times this year. But, it’s not impossible to improve (look at Stanley this year versus his rookie year).

To me, there is nothing compelling here at all. It does illustrate how a handful of views can't paint a full proper picture. I can only assume that Hunter and Co. saw enough here to spend a pick, or Dubas' team is banking on a data nugget.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Potvin29 on June 28, 2016, 04:19:55 PM
I mean, it goes without saying that Hunter and Co. saw enough to spend a pick because they did spend a pick.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: McGarnagle on June 28, 2016, 07:29:29 PM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/7/20/9006441/blue-jackets-draft-video-shows-leafs-offered-pick-no-4-for-picks-no-8

I don't know if this is the spot for this, but I must of spaced on this if it was mentioned earlier. So it would appear Marner was never the Leafs preference?
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: No.92 on June 28, 2016, 07:45:45 PM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/7/20/9006441/blue-jackets-draft-video-shows-leafs-offered-pick-no-4-for-picks-no-8

I don't know if this is the spot for this, but I must of spaced on this if it was mentioned earlier. So it would appear Marner was never the Leafs preference?

I don't care what happened, but thank God it worked out in our favor.  I'm happy we have Marner.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 07:53:58 PM
http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2015/7/20/9006441/blue-jackets-draft-video-shows-leafs-offered-pick-no-4-for-picks-no-8

I don't know if this is the spot for this, but I must of spaced on this if it was mentioned earlier. So it would appear Marner was never the Leafs preference?

That they were open to a trade down doesn't necessarily mean he wasn't their preference, just that they were pursuing other options. You can think Marner is the right choice at #4 while still thinking other things might be more valuable. That's a heck of a collection of picks.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: McGarnagle on June 28, 2016, 07:59:08 PM
That they were open to a trade down doesn't necessarily mean he wasn't their preference, just that they were pursuing other options. You can think Marner is the right choice at #4 while still thinking other things might be more valuable. That's a heck of a collection of picks.

It is a haul of picks, and it is too early to say it would have been the wrong decision, even now in hindsight.

 If I'm understanding correctly, I guess I was just under the impression that Hunter was drafting Marner at that spot as a first priority and plan. If the link it to be believed, they didn't think enough of him to prefer giving up that spot and trading down. That surprised me.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 08:07:22 PM
It is a haul of picks, and it is too early to say it would have been the wrong decision, even now in hindsight.

 If I'm understanding correctly, I guess I was just under the impression that Hunter was drafting Marner at that spot as a first priority and plan. If the link it to be believed, they didn't think enough of him to prefer giving up that spot and trading down. That surprised me.

Me too but, to give the organization credit, I think there's real value in exploring all of your options. That very well might have been a "they'll never give us all that, will they?" sort of offer.
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Frank E on June 28, 2016, 08:13:39 PM
It is a haul of picks, and it is too early to say it would have been the wrong decision, even now in hindsight.

 If I'm understanding correctly, I guess I was just under the impression that Hunter was drafting Marner at that spot as a first priority and plan. If the link it to be believed, they didn't think enough of him to prefer giving up that spot and trading down. That surprised me.

Me too but, to give the organization credit, I think there's real value in exploring all of your options. That very well might have been a "they'll never give us all that, will they?" sort of offer.

If the Leafs think Columbus' rookie GM wants Hanafin, they make the offer to see if they'll bite.  It was the Leafs trying to take advantage here, not so much them not liking Marner.

They seemed to like Werenski enough to keep their stash.

So, I agree. 
Title: Re: Ranking Prospects
Post by: Nik the Trik on June 28, 2016, 08:20:41 PM
Another thing to consider is that Toronto might, and I realize this is a big might, might have thought Marner would still be around at #8. Because if you figure that the reason to trade up for Columbus is to take Hanifin and then Carolina and Philadelphia still want defensemen and take Werenski/Provorov in some order then all Marner has to do is get by New Jersey and he's there. So if they knew that Jersey was in love with Zacha...