Author Topic: Armchair GM 2017-2018  (Read 12619 times)

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Online bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #150 on: September 15, 2017, 02:06:52 PM »
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.
"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #151 on: September 15, 2017, 02:39:12 PM »
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #152 on: September 15, 2017, 03:20:10 PM »
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

Offline Zee

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #153 on: September 15, 2017, 03:25:12 PM »
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

There you go, every single player on the Leafs is better than Marner. 

Offline Coco-puffs

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #154 on: September 15, 2017, 03:33:02 PM »
Management's decisions shouldn't entirely be based on long-term thinking.  There needs to be a balance.  Considering this team has a window of opportunity now, with all of the big three on entry-level deals, short term thinking isn't a bad thing.  I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.  Trade Bozak away and that takes a hit.  His value as "insurance for injuries" is much more than nil.  Kadri goes down in February for 4-6 weeks:  Matthews - Bozak - Nylander will probably still get you in the playoffs.  Matthews - Nylander - Brooks/Aaltonen?  I have my doubts.  With Kadri returning for the playoffs, you are back to a contender.  Don't get in, doesn't matter if you have a healthy lineup at the end of the season.

Yeah, on no level do I buy the idea that a line flanked by JvR and Marner - or even Marleau/Kapanen/whoever would be bumped up if one of JvR and Marner takes Nylander's spot of the top line - will take a significant hit in terms of level of contribution if Bozak is replaced by Moore (who is a more than capable 3rd line centre) or another reasonable NHL C, nor do I all accept that Nylander wouldn't at least equal - if not significantly out-do - Bozak's potential production filling in for Kadri.

In fact, I'd wager that, with the wingers the Leafs have available, Matthews-Nylander-Moore would lead to as good, if not better, results than Matthews-Bozak-Nylander.

Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.


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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #155 on: September 15, 2017, 03:38:22 PM »
Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

Honestly, a lot of those numbers really make me question the validity and value of that chart. Gardiner's WAR is like 0.2; Rielly's is somewhere between -0.5 and 0.5 and virtually the same as Marincin's; Marner's is negative, as is Zaitsev's; Hyman's is almost as high as Matthews'. There's too many things that are so obviously not a reflection of reality for it to be used as reasonable support for an argument.
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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #156 on: September 15, 2017, 03:38:53 PM »


Dominic Moore is nothing more than a decent 4th line center.

https://public.tableau.com/shared/K7NJ7B3HH?:display_count=yes

Why is Marner's WAR so awful??

I actually dug into that a little bit when that chart was posted because it didn't make sense to me.  But a big component of WAR is shot differential WOWY.  For Marner, who played with Bozak-JvR for 90% of the season they had fairly even shot distribution (ie 50.5-51% corsi).  However, when he was injured/sick and Brown filled in:  JvR-Bozak-Brown had something like 56% corsi.  Furthermore, Marner took a number of shifts with Matthews early in the season and they got killed possession wise.  (Marner CF% away from JvR is 45%)  That gives JVR and Bozak big boosts because their WOWY showed they were better without Marner.  And it makes Marner look back because JvR and Bozak had better numbers away from him. 

Its a problem with some analytics- deciding that Marner is BAD at shot differential because 10% of his time away from them was bad and 10% of their time away from him was good is definitely flawed to some extent.  Huge sample size issue there.  It works better for players who spend even amounts of time with different players.  Nylander, for instance, fully deserves his high ranking as he boosted shot differentials no matter which line he played on- and his sample sizes on the different lines are decent in size.

Ah, that rascally sample size, mucking things up again.  Thanks for looking into that.  :-)

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #157 on: September 15, 2017, 03:45:11 PM »
Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.
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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #158 on: September 15, 2017, 03:55:46 PM »
Please provide something more than "I'd wager" to prove that Moore >= Bozak.

That's quite clearly not the argument I'm making. I'm saying the line of JvR-Moore-Marner would not contribute substantially less to the team's success than the line of JvR-Bozak-Marner over a short period, because JvR and Marner drive that line's success, not Bozak - especially in light of the fact that Nylander replacing Kadri instead of Bozak would almost certainly contribute more.

Did you just tell me that {Matthews, Nylander, Moore} > {Matthews - Nylander - Bozak}? 
 
In both scenario's Nylander is replacing Kadri when he's injured.  Its a discussion of whether Bozak is replaceable by Moore and I still think you are nuts if you say so.

Also, nevermind the downgrade happening on the right side prior to the injury.  Nobody that would come in and replace Nylander on the right side is up to his level.  Moving Marner into his spot just creates a hole where Marner was.



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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #159 on: September 15, 2017, 04:45:57 PM »
a)  Dominic Moore is not someone you want playing above the 4th line.

It's not ideal, sure. But I don't think it's a catastrophe.   

b)  Sure, you could try and flip that 1st rounder back to someone else for someone who will be here longer-term.  But, if your long term plan is to play Nylander there then why?  Also, I think that type of move is much easier said than done.

Because you're asset-building. If and when Nylander does eventually transition over to Centre you'd then have a superfluous asset, whether it's Kadri or this hypothetical new #3 C.

c)  Sub-optimal lineup- I don't think the Leafs have that large a margin for getting into the playoffs that they should go sub-optimal.  Especially if we aren't as lucky on the injury front.

I feel like there's sort of an inherent contradiction here. On the one hand, the Leafs are so good they should be doing some short term "How do we maximize our chances at the cup immediately" thinking. On the other, they're so fragile that trading Bozak(an ok #3 C) seriously jeopardizes those plans.

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Offline Nik the Trik

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #160 on: September 15, 2017, 04:50:42 PM »
I believe the odds-makers have the Leafs in the Top 10 to win the cup at 14-1, tied with Tampa for best in our division.

Yeah, so Vegas Odds-makers make odds based not on what they think is likely to happen but based on where they think they can set the line to encourage the most betting without it being a bad investment for sports books. Top 10 worst odds for gamblers does not necessarily equal top 10 team in the league.

In particular a team like the Leafs, with a large and passionate fan base, is more likely to have artificially bad odds in case of a win and then a large payout.

Not to knock anyone's socks off but guys who run Vegas sports books aren't actually, like, the world's biggest authorities on what teams are good at sports.
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Online bustaheims

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #161 on: September 15, 2017, 06:54:29 PM »
Did you just tell me that {Matthews, Nylander, Moore} > {Matthews - Nylander - Bozak}? 
 
In both scenario's Nylander is replacing Kadri when he's injured.  Its a discussion of whether Bozak is replaceable by Moore and I still think you are nuts if you say so.

It's awful fun to completely ignore variables like usage and line mates when comparing players, isn't? And to reframe your argument - which was seemed to be pretty clearly based on having Bozak move into the spot vacated by Matthews or Kadri, not Nylander.

That being said, let's look at Moore vs Bozak for a moment here.

Based on the numbers at hockey-reference.com, last season, Moore put up an even-strength p/60 of 1.45, with an OZS% of 39.5. According to dobberhockey, his most common line mates (in no particular order) at even strength were Riley Nash, Noel Acciari, Jimmy Hayes, and Tim Schiller. Combined, these 4 players put up 38 even-strength points all season.

Meanwhile, Bozak put up an even-strength p/60 of 2.03, with an OZS% of 52.5. According to dobberhockey, his most common line mates - by an extremely wide margin - were JvR and Marner, each of whom had at least 40 even-strength points.

So, yeah, with better zone starts and better line mates - even if it's just one of Marner or JvR - I do think that Moore could equal or surpass the contributions that would Bozak make in the same scenario. He's a better defensive player with a similar face-off proficiency. Boak's offensive numbers are inflated significantly from the PP time that he shouldn't be getting when the Leafs are healthy, and probably shouldn't get in any significant amount even if one of Matthews or Kadri were injured when the team would still have Nylander, Marner, JvR, Marleau, whichever of Matthews/Kadri is healthy in this scenario, plus Kapanen, Brown, and other young guys the Leafs need to use more effectively - and that's assuming they stick to the 4 forward, 1 D PP formation.

Also, nevermind the downgrade happening on the right side prior to the injury.  Nobody that would come in and replace Nylander on the right side is up to his level.  Moving Marner into his spot just creates a hole where Marner was.

I think we'd see pretty quickly that putting Kapanen in that spot would make up a fair bit of that gap - obviously, he's not at Marner's level, but I'm confident he's closer than you seem to be giving him credit for. I actually think the defensive improvements from a JvR-Moore-Kapanen line could mitigate most of - if not all - the offensive drop off from Marner to Kapanen.
« Last Edit: September 15, 2017, 06:56:26 PM by bustaheims »
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Offline Dappleganger

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #162 on: September 15, 2017, 07:45:43 PM »
Why not trade Bozak to Montreal where he'd be their number 1 centre?  ;D

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #163 on: September 17, 2017, 12:28:28 AM »
Why not trade Bozak to Montreal where he'd be their number 1 centre?  ;D

No, they probably should get Moore. 

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #164 on: October 27, 2017, 02:26:31 AM »
Analytics and analysis:  Breaking down the Leafs' players' penalties both taken & drawn: 

(article a bit dated but still merits a look): http://faceoffcircle.ca/2017/10/17/toronto-maple-leafs-take-draw-penalties-matters/

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Re: Armchair GM 2017-2018
« Reply #164 on: October 27, 2017, 02:26:31 AM »