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Messages - herman

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1
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: Yesterday at 10:51:13 AM »
Burke and Nonis had a similar take when running the Leafs regarding analytics, but if I recall correctly, they were being inundated with stat companies trying to break into the league by offering proprietary metrics. For the mathematically disinclined, yeah, it can definitely impede your decision making (that had proven itself effective previously). At a certain age, when youre maybe leaning towards cementing a legacy, going out on a limb that you cannot prove the load-bearing capabilities of is quite challenging.

So it is entirely understandable to me why there is resistance to change, especially to a movement/philosophy that is perceived to be out to tell everyone (and by extension you) has been wrong this whole time re: grit, fighting, hits, blocking, slapshots from the point, dressing room character, WASP values, etc.

2
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Lou Will Not Return
« on: August 17, 2018, 11:08:56 PM »

It would have gotten in the way of signing Matt Martin and Leo Komarov.

3
General NHL News & Views / Re: 2017-2018 NHL Thread
« on: August 17, 2018, 10:03:08 AM »
Goalies are playing longer now though, right?  Not Bower old, but still.

Lundqvist is 36, Rinne 35...Luongo is 39, but he's hitting a wall.

Can you believe that Tuukka Rask is 31 !?!

Is that actually a new development? Seems to me like top level goalies have always hung on around that long. Hasek, Brodeur, Cujo, Belfour, Vernon...

You could very well be right, I really didn't look into the history of it.

But I guess the point I was trying to make was that it wouldn't be unusual if Price played really well for years to come, even into his mid-late 30's.

Carey Price has a history of knee and other lower body injuries, so I'm not sure how long his body lasts in a position that is so heavily dependent on lower body flexibility and mobility.

4
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 17, 2018, 09:53:02 AM »
PPP: 12. Rasmus Sandin

Rasmus Sandin coming in over someone with greater NHL proximity in Carl Grundstrom might be jarring to some, but Sandin is ridiculously smart with and without the puck and could conceivably be the next Travis Dermott (whom we already love). Grundstrom tops out as a complementary/dependent winger who brings a scoring touch with tunnel vision.

Nothing flashy. Just taking the puck to where it should go pretty much every time.

I have Sandin higher than the Brown, Carrick tier in my own minimal-effort ranking. This is not to say Brown and Carrick are not smart. Brown has a lot of the off-puck structure down pat, and is almost always in the right spot to capitalize. And Carrick can breakdown the game and the way to play better than some coaches. Sandin's higher value in my mind comes from his projected impact on the game as a top-4 defender that is always funneling the puck into generating opportunity.

TLN: 17. Eemeli Rasanen

16. Jesper Lindgren

5
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM
« on: August 16, 2018, 01:59:10 PM »

Brain health!

6
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 16, 2018, 11:03:56 AM »
PPP: 13. Carl Grundstrom

Grundstrom - Tavares - Marner 2020

Bigger/heavier Soshnikov is probably the most apt description of his style of play.

7
61 points, 49 points, and 53 points, the past 3 seasons.  5th, 11th, and 7th in Norris voting those 3 years, and is the team's captain...all while carrying a cap hit of $4m.

How is he overrated?

He's not at all bad. I just don't want defensemen shooting from the point as often as he does, because that takes away puck touches from your more potent shooters. People don't seem to know how to gauge good defense other than by how much they score, and to a degree that is very valuable, but it doesn't tell us much about how they play without the puck (which is their primary function).

8
Something might be up:

https://www.bardown.com/a-leafs-prospect-s-social-media-activity-has-fans-jumping-to-conclusions-1.1157984

This is why sites like PPP and TLN post their summer rankings day by day.

I'm ranking Nielsen higher now for this masterful troll job.

9
Main Leafs Hockey Talk / Re: John Tavares is a Maple Leaf
« on: August 15, 2018, 12:49:22 PM »
There is a downside to signing Tavares that I did not consider. 

At some point throughout the season I will be torn between whether I want Babcock to put Nylander, Matthews and Marner together for multiple shifts to see what happens or to put Nylander, Tavares, and Marner together for multiple shifts to see what happens.

We might see a more skewed version of last season, where certain lines were leaned on for certain roles. In particular I'm talking about score effects on TOI (and thus production).

When we were leading: Kadri and 4th line got lots of minutes (woo! another empty for Marleau). When we were chasing, Matthews and Bozak lines got all the shifts. Last season, we led a lot.

This season, I think we will be leading very often. Without Babcock's usual stalwarts of gudness to deploy, we'll see a lot of Kadri and Tavares I think (or Tavares and Lindholm/4C).

10
General Rumours & Speculation / Re: Armchair GM 2018-2019
« on: August 15, 2018, 12:38:22 PM »
would anyone do Nylander and Gardiner for Karlsson ? if he agreed to a contract extension....

No. Sorry.

11
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 15, 2018, 09:18:30 AM »

12
EDIT: Wait, am I thinking of Roman Josi?

Funny, the first thing I thought when I read your post initially was that Josi is more overrated than Ellis.

I poked through some data, and yeah, I was thinking of Josi this whole time.

They're like boy band members: Subban's the famous one, Eckholm is the actually good one, Ellis is the (really) short one, and Josi is the overrated one.

Nashville's defense as a whole does tend to shoot a lot.

13
Their scoring numbers prior to this season were very close, and Ellis actually scored at a higher pace this past season too despite not hitting the 50 mark (32 points in 44 games). Add in the fact that he's a righty and he kills penalties, it's pretty easy to make the case that Ellis is the more valuable player.

And while I've talk about how important it was for Gardiner to hit the 50 point mark myself, if I was Dubas I'd point out that he did it in a season where more defenceman than usual did it. 19 defencemen scored 50 or more points last season, usually that number hovers around 10.

That's a fair point. I do think Ellis is the most overrated of the 4 Nashville defenders though. He's Brent Burnsian in his propensity for shooting from a distance. Other than his shot metrics, his passing and entry stats are not Gardiner level.

If Dubas and co. can convince Gardiner that 6M is fair value for him, then I'm all for it.

EDIT: Wait, am I thinking of Roman Josi?

14
This contract makes me slightly more optimistic that we can get Gardiner re-signed at $6mil.

Ellis hasn't crested 50 pts. And he's a unicorn RHD. Playing for a team with minimal state income tax.

15
Marlies & Prospect Talk / Re: Ranking Prospects 2018-19
« on: August 14, 2018, 12:18:45 PM »
TLN's top 20 kicked off yesterday, so I'm back filling here:
20. Andrew Nielsen
19. Mac Hollowell

Note, TLN does its rankings by Calder Trophy eligibility.

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