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Maple Leafs News and Views => Leafs Media Rumours => General Rumours & Speculation => Topic started by: sb78 on February 13, 2013, 11:10:36 AM

Title: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: sb78 on February 13, 2013, 11:10:36 AM
Apologies if this has been discussed elsewhere, but i haven't seen a thread related to this.   There has been a lot of chatter the last couple of days about O'Reilly being on the trade market and 590 was speculating as to what the Leafs would have to give up to get him.  Brady suggested Kadri plus additional assets, which to me is absolutely absurd.  He went so far as to suggest that anything short of kadri and gardiner would not be enough to get a deal done.  Now i don't watch must avalanche hockey, but looking at his numbers, these suggestions seem pretty ridiculous.

O'Reilly had a decent year last year with 55 pts in 81 games, but other than the fact that he's been developed in the NHL will Kadri has been developing with the Marlies, I wouldn't say he's all that much further ahead than Kadri.  At this point, O'Reilly is sitting on his @$$ at home while Kadri is playing at almost a point a game pace, so Kadri is catching up to him.   

While it would be nice to add another nice young centre to the mix, I wouldn't even think of making a 1-for-1 trade involving Kadri for an unsigned RFA that really doesn't have any more upside to him. 

What do you guys think is a fair price for O'Reiily and where would he fit in on this team, if anywhere? 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Joe S. on February 13, 2013, 11:16:07 AM
Kadri and Gardiner are the new Colaiacovo and Antropov...
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 13, 2013, 11:24:19 AM
Kadri and Gardiner are the new Colaiacovo and Antropov...

Only with more talent.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Can8899 on February 13, 2013, 11:30:29 AM
Would a trade including Gunnar for him be too much?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 13, 2013, 11:39:52 AM
Kadri and Gardiner are the new Colaiacovo and Antropov...

Only with more talent.

Less damage to their knees, as well.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Omallley on February 13, 2013, 11:42:16 AM
I am not convinced that O'Reilly is that much of an upgrade on what the Leafs have currently, or would have after the trade. He's proven to be a really defensively responsible forward, and did lead his team in scoring last year. But that's the bit I'd be worried about - paying the price that Colorado wants for him, paying O'Reilly the money that he believes he deserves, and expecting him to slot in as a first line center? Not sure that is going to fit.
Title: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Sudafederov on February 13, 2013, 12:42:57 PM
Kadri and Gardiner are the new Colaiacovo and Antropov...

Kadri + Gards + 1st
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Justin on February 13, 2013, 12:57:19 PM
I feel like we'll have to give up too much for him in order for a trade to be worthwhile. Not only that, but we'll have to sign him to a contract another NHL team obviously though too high/overpriced. As much as O'Reilly entices me, he'll be another 2nd line centre on a team that already has 2 or 3 of them. I'd rather keep my assets and sign Getzlaf in the off-season.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 13, 2013, 01:14:37 PM
Brady suggested Kadri plus additional assets, which to me is absolutely absurd.  He went so far as to suggest that anything short of kadri and gardiner would not be enough to get a deal done.  Now i don't watch must avalanche hockey, but looking at his numbers, these suggestions seem pretty ridiculous.

What do you guys think is a fair price for O'Reiily and where would he fit in on this team, if anywhere?

yeah i wouldn't put much stock in what Brady says, ever.  That deal makes no sense at all from the Toronto perspective, since as you suggest... Kadri really isn't all that far off from being just about as valuable based on his NHL production.  Give him another 10 games at even close to the current level and that would cement it.  So why trade a guy on his entry level deal for a guy about to cash in big time?  And throw Gardiner in to boot? Uh, no.

Gardiner + an expiring contract would be the best offer I'd make. Even then, I'm hesitant.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on February 13, 2013, 01:35:32 PM
Gardner, Komiserik, a bag of beans, a 2nd and 3rd round pick.. oh and we would pay half of Komiserks salary this year.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: A Weekend at Bernier's on February 13, 2013, 01:51:07 PM
Would a trade including Gunnar for him be too much?

Something built around this suggestion (+) would be reasonable, I think.  Gunnarson, Bozak and a 3'rd round pick? 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: iwas11in67 on February 13, 2013, 02:54:24 PM
Would a trade including Gunnar for him be too much?

Something built around this suggestion (+) would be reasonable, I think.  Gunnarson, Bozak and a 3'rd round pick?

I was thinking around the same.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Can8899 on February 13, 2013, 04:26:04 PM
Would a trade including Gunnar for him be too much?

Something built around this suggestion (+) would be reasonable, I think.  Gunnarson, Bozak and a 3'rd round pick?

I was thinking around the same.

That still seems like a lot, especially considering how well Bozak has been playing recently.  Bozak and O'Reilly have similar stats over the last few seasons however O'Reilly is 4 years younger. 

Even so, I would think we could get it done with Gunnarsson + MacArthur or prospect (McKegg, Ryan, Blacker, etc.) + pick.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 15, 2013, 01:42:41 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 15, 2013, 02:03:45 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

Do we really know what Kadri's "ceiling" is yet?  It's the first season he's been given a full time role.  He's averaging 14 min/game and is almost on a point a game pace right now.  O'Reilly last year averaged 19 min/game and had 55 points in 81 games.

Now i'm not suggesting Kadri is a bona-fide 70-80 point player, but we just don't know that yet.  I'd be hesitant to trade him away when he's just starting to find his role.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: TML fan on February 15, 2013, 03:09:30 PM
Is O'Reilly really that good, or is the interest in him there simply because he's available?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 15, 2013, 03:25:29 PM
Is O'Reilly really that good, or is the interest in him there simply because he's available?

People have suggested he's a solid 2nd line center on most teams and a 3rd on deep teams.  I don't see how acquiring him and giving up a Kadri or Gardiner is anything but a sideways move.  Maybe Kadri will become the 2nd center if he continues to develop?  I'm sure O'Rielly would be a nice addition, but at what cost to a team that is still finding out what they have in their own system.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 15, 2013, 03:28:32 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Sarge on February 15, 2013, 03:31:05 PM
O'Reilly + Kadri could potentially set us up long term 1-2 down the middle. The stars would need to align a little but I don't think it's out of the question. I would most certainly make a play for him but I'd like to retain Kadri.   
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 15, 2013, 03:52:38 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.

Kadri also has one of the best corsi ratings on the Leafs, if you believe in that stat unlike Don Cherry.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: princedpw on February 15, 2013, 05:11:24 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I don't know that I agree that Kadri is a useless player if he's not scoring. He'll probably never get a Selke nod but I think he's proving to be pretty feisty, able to throw a hit and can carry the play.

Kadri also has one of the best corsi ratings on the Leafs, if you believe in that stat unlike Don Cherry.

It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 15, 2013, 05:24:07 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

Do we really know what Kadri's "ceiling" is yet?  It's the first season he's been given a full time role.  He's averaging 14 min/game and is almost on a point a game pace right now.  O'Reilly last year averaged 19 min/game and had 55 points in 81 games.

Now i'm not suggesting Kadri is a bona-fide 70-80 point player, but we just don't know that yet.  I'd be hesitant to trade him away when he's just starting to find his role.

That's the nature of the business though. I'm sure Colorado would be hesitant to trade away O'Reilly without knowing his true ceiling too. The point is O'Reilly is more than a one dimensional player, whereas Kadri really isn't. If he isn't producing points, he's taking up someone else's spot in the lineup.

If you believe O'Reilly's offensive game is even close to that of Kadri's, which at this point in time it is, than 9 times out of 10 I make that trade.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: CarltonTheBear on February 15, 2013, 05:26:53 PM
It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 15, 2013, 05:35:19 PM
Hey Mirtle. Quit stealing ideas from this site. ;)

Mirtle's tweet...

Here's an interesting debate for Leafs fans: Would you move Kadri for O'Reilly? @jamiemclennan29 and @HayesTSN were getting into this today.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 15, 2013, 06:37:08 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

That is a heavily biased opinion based on all the information we have. I can't fathom giving up a similar player statistically and thensome for someone who has proven very little at the NHL level. I can't understand this move - why not deal from a position of strength than a position of utter weakness? Regardless, I think this is a sideways move at best and another miscalculated move of prospects and picks at worst.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 15, 2013, 06:48:06 PM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Lee-bo on February 15, 2013, 06:50:13 PM
I think it would be ridiculous to not pursue o'reilly. I don't think we should trade Kadri, but why not a defencemen? Having Kadri and o'reilly up the middle would set us up nicely for years to come.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Hampreacher on February 15, 2013, 09:07:52 PM
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: princedpw on February 15, 2013, 10:15:00 PM
It appears to be a useful stat but it is just one stat and needs to be taken in context.  If Kadri has a better Corsi than Kessel, the conclusion I would draw is that he's probably playing against vastly weaker opposition and/or starts his shifts more often in the Ozone or neutral zone.

There are stats that keep track of those things as well. Their Quality of Competition stat is nearly identical, and Kessel starts his shifts in the offensive zone just a tad more than Kadri does.

(Yes, I'm aware of other such stats.). Count me as shocked that they have the same quality of competition.  I'd have to look in to that to find out what I think of that ... feel free to post more details. Is it really the case that opposing teams are intentionally putting up the same talent against Kadri as Kessel?  Kadri's line cant possibly be viewed around the league as the same kind of consistent offensive threat as Kessel's. ... But I'd be interested to know why the numbers show that or what is going on.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 16, 2013, 12:21:44 AM
I'd trade Kadri and a 2nd for O'Reilly. Kadri might have similar upside at the offensive end of the rink, but let's face it, if Kadri's offense dries up or gets cold, he's pretty much useless. If O'Reilly's offense dries up or gets cold, he's still a damn fine defensive forward that you can send out in any situation.

I wouldn't. I'm fairly confident in saying that the difference between Kadri and O'Reilly's offensive abilities is larger than the difference in their defensive abilities.

I'm not prepared to give up on Nazem just because O'Reilly had one hot year. Who knows if he'll be able to recreate that again. Besides, I think Mirtle is overstating the differences in metrics. I'm looking through Kadri this year vs. O'Reilly last year and I honestly cannot see a big difference between them. This is a sideways move at best.

O'Reilly: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2011_s&f2=5v5&f5=COL&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67#

Kadri: http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_statistics.php?ds=30&f1=2012_s&f2=5v5&f5=TOR&c=0+1+3+5+4+6+7+8+13+14+29+30+32+33+34+45+46+63+67
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 16, 2013, 03:15:15 AM
Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 16, 2013, 10:19:36 AM
Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Not to get off into too much of a tangent regarding the use of advanced metrics in hockey but I think that the ones that are out there aren't anywhere near good enough or definitive enough to draw solid conclusions from them. For the most part none of them do the one thing that is problematic about hockey numbers to begin with, and that's try to identify individual play in a game with so many moving parts and outside factors. Things like Corsi measure results and then assume there's a sort of truth in the aggregate when applying them to individuals. That may be true in cases but ultimately that's the same argument that's made by people who rely heavily on +/- to determine defense.

I appreciate the instinct to try and pin down contributions in hockey better with numbers but I don't think that we're anywhere close to having anything that should be taken seriously in a meaningful discussion about the relative worths of players.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Leafaholic99 on February 16, 2013, 11:25:37 AM
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 16, 2013, 11:46:18 AM
I do not think I would deal Kadri for OReilly but say Graboski and Gunnerson.

I agree, why trade Kadri for a sideways move most likely, plus Kadri should company a huge pay raise in his next contract.

I agree too. I'd trade MacCarthur straight up for O'Reilly if I could. Thing is, I very much doubt Colorado would make either of those trades. If you follow/believe the reports, they want Kadri or Gardiner.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Peter D. on February 16, 2013, 01:48:48 PM
I'd be very leery in dealing Kadri or Gardiner (especially the latter) for O'Reilly.

He had a very good season as a 21-year old, but when I think of future #1 centers, he doesn't jump to mind.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: moon111 on February 16, 2013, 02:02:33 PM
A team with John Mitchell being 3rd in points is going to be giving ice-time to anyone without them actually having earned it. 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Britishbulldog on February 16, 2013, 02:15:25 PM
O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Guru Tugginmypuddah on February 16, 2013, 04:14:23 PM
O'Reilly has already refused to consider a $3.5 MIL a year contract after only 1 good year. How does Subban get hammered and this guy is being clamored after?

Kyle Turris signed a 5 year $3.5 MIL contract that will kick in next year and is comparable to Kadri as well.  Turris cost Rundblad (currently in the AHL!!) and a 2nd pick. 

I am very leery of trading almost anyone for a kid that thinks that much of himself after only ONE GOOD YEAR!

+1

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Jalili on February 17, 2013, 06:34:51 PM
I wonder if this whole issue isn't actually completely a money thing but rather his way of forcing a trade out of Colorado.

It might be that he sees himself stuck behind Duchene/Stastny, or it could be that he's ticked off that he got passed over for promotion to a younger guy and a rookie. I don't know if those are valid reasons but it's a strange situation.

Just seems as if there's something out of sight that went on between his side and management.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 18, 2013, 09:24:02 PM
Can anyone read these stats? Mirtle basically said that O'Reilly was much better two way and played against much better opposition. He said Corsi out of context proves nothing, but don't a lot of those corsi metrcis formulated to help produce a type of context?

*Edit: So O'Reilly appears to have been playing much of his time with Gabriel Landeskog. I have no reservation in my mind that this is a huge reason why O'Reilly did so well Offensively last year. Moreover, O'Reilly's relative Corsi, while high, is not amongst the highest on his team, which indicates quality of the player vs. the rest of the team.

Kadri's otoh, is at 20.8 this year, the highest on the team. His ice time per game is also more than 4mins less per game than O'Reilly. While O'Reilly faced the second highest quality of competition, this is no doubt due to playing alongside Gabriel Landeskog. While Matt Frattin is nice, he doesn't have a Landeskog to play with.

So blah blah blah, context Mirtle, you're obviously not giving any credit here to Kadri. I wouldn't say O'Reilly is far and away the better player. He's strong two-way, but I wouldn't let go of Kadri's offensive upside, who is playing as well as he is despite his linemates, not in spite of them. I think he'd do a lot better with Landeskog on his wing and I think it's a lot easier to teach two way play rather than offensive instincts, where I think Kadri has O'Reilly beat - I believe Kadri's upside is higher.


Anyone else want to take a crack at analyzing the numbers?

Anything I write will just be repeating what others have written, but this makes a pretty good case for O'Reilly's worth (especially the PPG comparables at his age):

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

I also find the WOWY stat interesting:

Quote
The one forward in the past two years whose Corsi % was actually better away from O'Reilly was, as you may have guessed, Gabriel Landeskog. Only one defenceman in two years had a worse Corsi % with O'Reilly than away from him, and that was Scott Hannan, who only just barely made the cut-off for this list at 105 minutes. It's pretty clear that O'Reilly is a player who drives play and makes those around him better. A play-making centre who can put up points while driving play and locking down the defensive side of the game? Sounds like exactly what the Leafs need on the Phil Kessel line.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Kessel Run on February 18, 2013, 09:30:45 PM
Do the Avs need any defensemen?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 19, 2013, 08:31:45 AM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 19, 2013, 08:53:33 AM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

The days of the Leafs giving away first round draft picks are over (at least for now)
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 19, 2013, 09:27:54 AM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 19, 2013, 09:28:54 AM
Do the Avs need any defensemen?

Yes.  They need a mobile guy in a big way.  I doubt they would go for Liles coming back, but you never know.  they will want Gardiner for ROR, almost guaranteed.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Erndog on February 19, 2013, 09:34:25 AM
Do the Avs need any defensemen?

Yes.  They need a mobile guy in a big way.  I doubt they would go for Liles coming back, but you never know.  they will want Gardiner for ROR, almost guaranteed.

They may want Liles sure, but certainly not in the ROR deal. 

And yeah, they'd want Gardiner + for ROR it sounds like.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: TML fan on February 19, 2013, 10:14:55 AM
Well, if O'Reilly is that good, you make that trade.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on February 19, 2013, 10:29:55 AM
With Reilly coming us Gardiner can move on. We need a first line centre in a big way. No offence Tyler, you are one of my faves, perhaps we send Grabovski with the G as he has been a big disappointment this year and Tyler can center Macarther and Kulimen when Frattin gets back to play with Kadri.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 19, 2013, 10:31:51 AM
Do the Avs need any defensemen?

Yes.  They need a mobile guy in a big way.  I doubt they would go for Liles coming back, but you never know.  they will want Gardiner for ROR, almost guaranteed.

They may want Liles sure, but certainly not in the ROR deal. 

And yeah, they'd want Gardiner + for ROR it sounds like.

I wouldn't do Gardiner in any way, but I would throw a bit more in if they would take a package that included Liles. The "plus" part of that deal would have to include a couple good assets though, so not sure how that would work out. I'm sure they would want a younger blueliner though.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 19, 2013, 10:35:45 AM
With Reilly coming us Gardiner can move on. We need a first line centre in a big way. No offence Tyler, you are one of my faves, perhaps we send Grabovski with the G as he has been a big disappointment this year and Tyler can center Macarther and Kulimen when Frattin gets back to play with Kadri.

They wouldn't do Grabo, because he would be stuck behind Statsny and Duchene anyway, same problem.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 19, 2013, 10:55:51 AM
ROR vs. Bozak....

Is the difference really that significant? Is ROR a 1st line centre, without question? If you can extend Bozak for $3.5 mil or something vs. paying $5 mil for ROR and the cost in trade or picks, is he going to deliver that much more? Even if ROR is better, he probably is not the legit 1st line centre this team needs, so you still have to go try and find that upgrade. 

I honestly have seen little to none of ROR so it's hard for me to get a feel for how good he can be.  If he is not a 100% legit 1st line centre, then I think sticking with what we have makes more sense than to blow a huge amount in trade and cap space on a guy who may be Grabbo II. 

Bozak is starting to win me over a little with his play the past few weeks.  Yeah he'd be a better 2nd or 3rd line ctr but he's doing an ok job where he is and his faceoff skillz are just nuts right now.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 19, 2013, 11:24:41 AM
ROR vs. Bozak....

Is the difference really that significant? Is ROR a 1st line centre, without question? If you can extend Bozak for $3.5 mil or something vs. paying $5 mil for ROR and the cost in trade or picks, is he going to deliver that much more? Even if ROR is better, he probably is not the legit 1st line centre this team needs, so you still have to go try and find that upgrade. 

I honestly have seen little to none of ROR so it's hard for me to get a feel for how good he can be.  If he is not a 100% legit 1st line centre, then I think sticking with what we have makes more sense than to blow a huge amount in trade and cap space on a guy who may be Grabbo II. 

Bozak is starting to win me over a little with his play the past few weeks.  Yeah he'd be a better 2nd or 3rd line ctr but he's doing an ok job where he is and his faceoff skillz are just nuts right now.

Most likely yes, ROR is much better, even if you ignore the age gap for now.

Some ugly stats for Bozak:

http://hockeyanalysis.com/2013/02/16/the-terrible-tyler-bozak/

Quote
I want to compare Bozak to other top 9 players and conveniently if we look at all forwards with 1250 minutes of 5v5 zone start adjusted ice time over the past 2 seasons we come up with 270 players which is precisely an average of 9 per team, or 3 lines per team. So, how does Bozak rank among these players?

    He ranks 208th in points/60 vs Kessel’s 45 and Lupul’s 47th.
    He ranks 197th in goals/60, 211th in assists/60 and 187th in first assists/60.
    He ranks 264th in shots/60.

So, despite playing predominately with first line players his individual offensive stats are at a 3rd line level.

Quote
There are 169 forwards with 250 5v4 PP minutes over the previous two seasons while Bozak has played 417:28 which puts him among the top 65 forwards in the league. How has Bozak fared?

    147th in points/60 to Kessel’s 65th and Lupul’s 18th.
    104th in goals/60, 140th in assists/60 and 150th in first assists/60.
    He ranks 165th in shots/60.

Think about that for a minute.  Of 169 forwards with >250 5v4 PP minutes over the past 2 seasons he ranks 5th last in shots/60 and has the 30th worst first assists/60 rankings. That means he is playing on the PP but isn’t shooting much and isn’t a primary set up man for the shooters either.

Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Rebel_1812 on February 19, 2013, 11:36:38 AM
With Reilly coming us Gardiner can move on. We need a first line centre in a big way. No offence Tyler, you are one of my faves, perhaps we send Grabovski with the G as he has been a big disappointment this year and Tyler can center Macarther and Kulimen when Frattin gets back to play with Kadri.

maybe they would do macarthur and kulemin for ROR.  Kulemin isn't scoring anymore and JVR+Lupul makes macarthur redundant.

They wouldn't do Grabo, because he would be stuck behind Statsny and Duchene anyway, same problem.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 19, 2013, 11:41:18 AM
Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.

Okay, so if Bozak really is not the man for the job (which I agree) long-term, do you go get ROR or do you hold off and see if the Getzlaf thing can happen?  I don't think you get both of them.

the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 19, 2013, 11:46:54 AM
Well, there's no doubt that the Leafs should probably make a trade of some kind, but I'm not sure if that is with Colorado. I'm on the fence about ROR.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 19, 2013, 11:48:00 AM
Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.

Okay, so if Bozak really is not the man for the job (which I agree) long-term, do you go get ROR or do you hold off and see if the Getzlaf thing can happen?  I don't think you get both of them.

the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak.

It's hard to say, but I probably wouldn't bank on getting someone UFA like Getzlaf (if that's the route hoped to get him) - but at the same time I'm not sure how prepared I'd be to meet whatever Colorado's demands are (Friedman suggests a D like Del Zotto is what they're after).

I really don't know why Kadri isn't at least the C on the 1st PP unit.  Maybe Carlyle wants Bozak there to win the draw and set up, but as those stats show, he's pretty much an offensive black-hole on the PP.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 19, 2013, 11:49:43 AM
the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 

Funny thing, Kadri has almost identical stats to Getzlaf offensively, except that he is doing it with 6 or so less minutes of ice-time.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: louisstamos on February 19, 2013, 11:55:03 AM
the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 

Funny thing, Kadri has almost identical stats to Getzlaf offensively, except that he is doing it with 6 or so less minutes of ice-time.

True, but also probably not facing the top defensive pair from the other team while doing it...
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: BlueWhiteBlood on February 19, 2013, 11:57:30 AM
the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 

Funny thing, Kadri has almost identical stats to Getzlaf offensively, except that he is doing it with 6 or so less minutes of ice-time.

True, but also probably not facing the top defensive pair from the other team while doing it...

No, definitely not.

If we can get Kadri to be Bozak in the face-off dot, I think he'd work on the top line with JvR and Kessel. He has better passing abilities, than does Bozak.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 19, 2013, 12:18:45 PM
the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 

Funny thing, Kadri has almost identical stats to Getzlaf offensively, except that he is doing it with 6 or so less minutes of ice-time.

True, but also probably not facing the top defensive pair from the other team while doing it...

but with all due respect to Frattin, Kadri doesn't have Corey Perry on his wing either.

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: princedpw on February 19, 2013, 07:31:41 PM
the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak. 

Funny thing, Kadri has almost identical stats to Getzlaf offensively, except that he is doing it with 6 or so less minutes of ice-time.

True, but also probably not facing the top defensive pair from the other team while doing it...

but with all due respect to Frattin, Kadri doesn't have Corey Perry on his wing either.

I think we have to wait more than 15 games before we start to compare Kadri's stats to Getzlaf's in a meaningful way.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 20, 2013, 02:11:58 AM
Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.

Okay, so if Bozak really is not the man for the job (which I agree) long-term, do you go get ROR or do you hold off and see if the Getzlaf thing can happen?  I don't think you get both of them.

the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak.

It's hard to say, but I probably wouldn't bank on getting someone UFA like Getzlaf (if that's the route hoped to get him) - but at the same time I'm not sure how prepared I'd be to meet whatever Colorado's demands are (Friedman suggests a D like Del Zotto is what they're after).

I really don't know why Kadri isn't at least the C on the 1st PP unit.  Maybe Carlyle wants Bozak there to win the draw and set up, but as those stats show, he's pretty much an offensive black-hole on the PP.

If we're going to shoot the moon for a top line center then I really dont think ROR is that player.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: moon111 on February 20, 2013, 05:14:50 AM
Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.

Okay, so if Bozak really is not the man for the job (which I agree) long-term, do you go get ROR or do you hold off and see if the Getzlaf thing can happen?  I don't think you get both of them.

the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak.

It's hard to say, but I probably wouldn't bank on getting someone UFA like Getzlaf (if that's the route hoped to get him) - but at the same time I'm not sure how prepared I'd be to meet whatever Colorado's demands are (Friedman suggests a D like Del Zotto is what they're after).

I really don't know why Kadri isn't at least the C on the 1st PP unit.  Maybe Carlyle wants Bozak there to win the draw and set up, but as those stats show, he's pretty much an offensive black-hole on the PP.

If we're going to shoot the moon for a top line center then I really dont think ROR is that player.
I hate that expression.
Title: Re: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 20, 2013, 08:33:28 AM
Really, Bozak's redeeming quality is his face-offs.  I don't even mind Bozak really, but we're lucky we have someone like Kessel who can make something out of nothing, because Bozak isn't getting the job done.

Okay, so if Bozak really is not the man for the job (which I agree) long-term, do you go get ROR or do you hold off and see if the Getzlaf thing can happen?  I don't think you get both of them.

the other potential is Bozak and Kadri filipping roles at some point.  Kadri as the 1st line centre sure makes sense from an offensive point of view.  He's no less of a danger in the defensive zone than Bozak.

It's hard to say, but I probably wouldn't bank on getting someone UFA like Getzlaf (if that's the route hoped to get him) - but at the same time I'm not sure how prepared I'd be to meet whatever Colorado's demands are (Friedman suggests a D like Del Zotto is what they're after).

I really don't know why Kadri isn't at least the C on the 1st PP unit.  Maybe Carlyle wants Bozak there to win the draw and set up, but as those stats show, he's pretty much an offensive black-hole on the PP.

If we're going to shoot the moon for a top line center then I really dont think ROR is that player.
I hate that expression.

I was expecting discussion on ROR not idioms but OK.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: sneakyray on February 20, 2013, 10:41:26 AM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

so maybe if somebody trades for him they do get that Turris type contract?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: TML fan on February 20, 2013, 11:16:21 AM
Has he demanded a trade? Has he told the Avalanche he won't play for them again?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 20, 2013, 11:18:16 AM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

I don't know why, but for some reason, that feels like more serious of a red flag to me than if he was holding out because of the money.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Deebo on February 20, 2013, 11:22:04 AM
In a full season, unsigned RFAs had until January to sign or they were ineligible for the rest of the season, anyone heard if there was a similar drop date date for this shortened season?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: TML fan on February 20, 2013, 11:23:06 AM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

I don't know why, but for some reason, that feels like more serious of a red flag to me than if he was holding out because of the money.

With something like this, it pretty much guarantees he'll never play in Colorado again. Questioning someone's character is pretty serious IMO.

If this is the case he's holding out for a trade, not for a contract, which would make this technically true, but I don't believe this was the case when the negotiations started.

So yeah, it's about money.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 20, 2013, 11:24:18 AM
In a full season, unsigned RFAs had until January to sign or they were ineligible for the rest of the season, anyone heard if there was a similar drop date date for this shortened season?

No such limitation this season.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 20, 2013, 11:27:29 AM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

I don't know why, but for some reason, that feels like more serious of a red flag to me than if he was holding out because of the money.

I wouldn't read too much into this article. The actual quote, I mean, it's barely a step up from gibberish.

Quote
"This is not about money and never has been. As you know you don’t build team based on dollars. If you did then the people with the most expensive players would be our champion . You build a team on its character. Ryan is not a superstar based on skill but character. I know this for a fact the players he was yesterday will not be the player he was tomorrow he will continue to grow learn and thrive .The world values it less and less, yet everyone is looking for those players that eat sleep and drink the game and are unselfish plus compete because they are intrinsically motivated for excellence."

And... "So when I looked at the Colorado Avalanche and the negotiations l see well-prepared agent, Willing to negotiate but an organization that does not look at the necessity of character. They can pick their players anyway they choose to and it’s none of my business or my son’s business."

Also..."Ryan loved playing at Colorado he has great teammates, friends and great fans.

Look at the character of (Craig) Anderson as a goalie does that not speak for itself. He’s a gamer, he wins."

And finally... "Quality of character is really hard to describe but you recognize it instantly in someone’s behavior. Each one of us has to decide the value of their own character and the character of others by how they treat you.

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 20, 2013, 11:29:22 AM
I wouldn't read too much into this article. The actual quote, I mean, it's barely a step up from gibberish.

Ahhh. Raving lunatic father. That's a very different kind of red flag.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: TML fan on February 20, 2013, 11:32:33 AM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

I don't know why, but for some reason, that feels like more serious of a red flag to me than if he was holding out because of the money.

I wouldn't read too much into this article. The actual quote, I mean, it's barely a step up from gibberish.

Quote
"This is not about money and never has been. As you know you don’t build team based on dollars. If you did then the people with the most expensive players would be our champion . You build a team on its character. Ryan is not a superstar based on skill but character. I know this for a fact the players he was yesterday will not be the player he was tomorrow he will continue to grow learn and thrive .The world values it less and less, yet everyone is looking for those players that eat sleep and drink the game and are unselfish plus compete because they are intrinsically motivated for excellence."

And... "So when I looked at the Colorado Avalanche and the negotiations l see well-prepared agent, Willing to negotiate but an organization that does not look at the necessity of character. They can pick their players anyway they choose to and it’s none of my business or my son’s business."

Also..."Ryan loved playing at Colorado he has great teammates, friends and great fans.

Look at the character of (Craig) Anderson as a goalie does that not speak for itself. He’s a gamer, he wins."

And finally... "Quality of character is really hard to describe but you recognize it instantly in someone’s behavior. Each one of us has to decide the value of their own character and the character of others by how they treat you.

He sounds like Adam West from the Mayoral debate scene on Family Guy.

"Without questions we just have answers, and an answer without a question is a statement."
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Heroic Shrimp on February 20, 2013, 12:01:20 PM
theres an article on sportsnet right now where ROR's dad says this holdout isn't about money but is about the avalanche not respecting ROR's character.

I don't know why, but for some reason, that feels like more serious of a red flag to me than if he was holding out because of the money.

I wouldn't read too much into this article. The actual quote, I mean, it's barely a step up from gibberish.

Quote
"This is not about money and never has been. As you know you don’t build team based on dollars. If you did then the people with the most expensive players would be our champion . You build a team on its character. Ryan is not a superstar based on skill but character. I know this for a fact the players he was yesterday will not be the player he was tomorrow he will continue to grow learn and thrive .The world values it less and less, yet everyone is looking for those players that eat sleep and drink the game and are unselfish plus compete because they are intrinsically motivated for excellence."

And... "So when I looked at the Colorado Avalanche and the negotiations l see well-prepared agent, Willing to negotiate but an organization that does not look at the necessity of character. They can pick their players anyway they choose to and it’s none of my business or my son’s business."

Also..."Ryan loved playing at Colorado he has great teammates, friends and great fans.

Look at the character of (Craig) Anderson as a goalie does that not speak for itself. He’s a gamer, he wins."

And finally... "Quality of character is really hard to describe but you recognize it instantly in someone’s behavior. Each one of us has to decide the value of their own character and the character of others by how they treat you.

He's just channelling MLK:
"I have a dream, that my son will one day play for a team where he will not be judged and paid by his accumulated statistics, but by the content of his character."
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 20, 2013, 12:28:45 PM
He's a "Life Coach" or something.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Bender on February 20, 2013, 12:35:47 PM
I wouldn't read too much into this article. The actual quote, I mean, it's barely a step up from gibberish.

Ahhh. Raving lunatic father. That's a very different kind of red flag.

Right, as of right now we don't know much. But I did read somewhere that one of the issues was they didnt give O'Reilly the captaincy. Now that, imo, is a VERY big red flag. Maybe he's just strong arming a trade, who knows.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 20, 2013, 12:52:05 PM
Right, as of right now we don't know much. But I did read somewhere that one of the issues was they didnt give O'Reilly the captaincy. Now that, imo, is a VERY big red flag. Maybe he's just strong arming a trade, who knows.

Yeah. Sure, most of it is speculation right now, but, some of it comes across as ego issues and makes O'Reilly out to be a bit of a prima donna, and, if any of those are true . . .
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 20, 2013, 12:58:17 PM
Like Turris.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 20, 2013, 03:11:37 PM
Good article for those passing judgement on ROR just by looking at his numbers...

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=416077
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 20, 2013, 03:20:05 PM
Good article for those passing judgement on ROR just by looking at his numbers...

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=416077

It's like O'Reilly's agent wrote that article.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 20, 2013, 03:37:40 PM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: nutman on February 20, 2013, 04:30:55 PM
I'm guessing if we deal for him, it will be from our position of strength, aka defense. I could see us putting together a package of defensemen and a pick, and without Gardner or Reiley involved.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 20, 2013, 09:40:20 PM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 07:53:07 AM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.

I knew someone would say something like this. ;)

Thing is, the GM has to take calculated risks all the time if he wants to improve the club and eventually challenge for the cup. That risk may be to hold on to the picks or trade them. Either decision is a risk.

It's the GMs job to weigh all the options and to make the right choice.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 21, 2013, 09:01:22 AM
I think it was Healy that suggested the Leafs sign him to an offer sheet, and front load it so that Colorado can't match. Make sense? A 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd ,plus more cash.

It just makes no sense to do this.  I've heard this a few times and don't get why people think they won't match, and if they didn't, why this is a wise approach.  "oh yeah just offer sheet the guy, that will make it all happen, no problem."

If you do, you lose the picks, which in the case of the Leafs right now is still very risky, then you get a player who is colossally overpaid and all the fun things that can happen with that. 

If they want this guy, just trade for him and make it happen that way. Sign him to a reasonable contract without stupid front loaded silliness and don't risk throwing picks you don't know what they will be.

And no, not for Kadri.  Bozak.. given what he's doing for this team right now I'm siding with those who think adding him to a deal is not a wise idea.  He's so good on faceoffs right now, it's ridiculous. 

Gardiner + Kulemin for ROR and a lesser prospect or pick.

I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Hmmm sounds an awful lot like Burke when he said that the two 1st rounders given up for Kessel wouldn't amount to much because the team was a playoff team....We know how those scratch tickets turned out.

I knew someone would say something like this. ;)

Thing is, the GM has to take calculated risks all the time if he wants to improve the club and eventually challenge for the cup. That risk may be to hold on to the picks or trade them. Either decision is a risk.

It's the GMs job to weigh all the options and to make the right choice.

I'd really like it if our GM collected other team's first round picks instead of giving up ours.  You never know what the picks will turn out to be, but more often than not you get NHL players in the first round, so the more picks you can acquire the better.  If they're top 15 or better, all the more chance of landing a good NHL prospect.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 09:19:24 AM
I agree that the offer sheet route isn't ideal, but its the only way to add a talent like O'Reilly without losing any valuable pieces like Kadri or Gardiner.

Edit: As far as parting with the draft picks, unless the unimaginable happens again this year and the Leafs fall to the bottom of the standings, those picks are like scratch tickets anyways. Are the Avalanche going to get a player as good as Kadri or Gardiner with those picks? Chances are pretty slim I would think. I would guess that adding a player like O'Reilly to the team, along with all the players coming off the IR soon, should prevent the team from finishing anywhere near the basement this year. That 1st rounder shouldnt be a top 5 or even top 10 pick IMO.

Yes.  Probably.  Most likely.  Quite likely, in fact.  But there's always that chance.

Have to look at the worst case scenario from the other perspective.... Gardiner, or one of McKinnon, Jones or Droun, plus whatever else you give up in picks?  Is that something you are willing to take the risk on giving up?   The old once bitten, twice shy adage comes to mind.  The Leafs have just had so much bad luck when it comes to mortgaging their first round picks, it scares me to no end when we talk about doing this. 

Calculated risk? Yeah, but the history in this particular scenario is so very dangrous. 

Yeah this team is probably not going back to the bottom 5 this year, but we are still relying on Reimer/Scrivens to take us away from there.  One setback for Reimer plus Scrivens not able to play at the level he has this past week consistently and we are right back down there.

Scary.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 21, 2013, 09:41:42 AM
Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 10:33:41 AM
Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 21, 2013, 10:39:40 AM
Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Until the team is on the verge of becoming a legit Cup contender, not trading away 1st round picks is a sound policy, no matter how much the risk may be mitigated. The more quality prospects there in the system, the more flexibility the team will have when they actually need it.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 10:42:19 AM
Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal. 

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 10:44:26 AM
Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Until the team is on the verge of becoming a legit Cup contender, not trading away 1st round picks is a sound policy, no matter how much the risk may be mitigated. The more quality prospects there in the system, the more flexibility the team will have when they actually need it.

That's true, but you can't always pass on a player that is age appropriate to the club you are building on a chance that a draft pick will help out your team down the road either. The leafs now have some picks and prospects in the cupboard. They can afford to trade away some picks for one draft year to bring in a quality, NHL ready player, as long as they continue to keep the majority of their pics moving forward. Remember, a GM can always trade away players that don't fit into their plans for more picks anytime they choose too.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 21, 2013, 10:46:51 AM
Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I think the pick in the Nolan deal became Mark Stuart eventually but that was such a good draft year that holding onto the pick was the smart move.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 10:47:36 AM
Any new GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs should have a rule when they take over:

No trading of 1st round picks within the first 3 years of the start of their job.

Just because the Kessel deal wasn't a good one for the Leafs, it doesn't mean a GM will lose every time he trades away a 1st. A GM can't be gun shy because the last GM made a bad trade. I'm sure there are plenty examples out there of teams trading way their first round for a player that is way better than the player the other team picked up in the draft. Again, if the deal is calculated properly and with a little luck, the team trading away the pick ends up with the better player. Its an old cliche, but you don't get reward without risk.

Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 21, 2013, 10:51:10 AM
I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.

I think what you'd typically find in terms of teams "winning" trades where they dealt first round picks are teams near the back of the draft dealing low first rounders for established veterans who can fill a specific role.

What we're talking about here is a different situation. O'Reilly's value is hardly a given and he wants a contract that, in most people's eyes, he hasn't really earned. As much as you want to talk about the "risk" involved in a first round pick there's also risk in trading for a talented young player who might have an inflated sense of his own worth and wants to be paid accordingly.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 10:54:42 AM
Is there a trade in the last 30 years where we can say that the Leafs dealt their 1st round pick and it didn't come back to haunt them?

The only one I can think of is in the Brian Leetch deal.

I think the pick in the Nolan deal became Mark Stuart eventually but that was such a good draft year that holding onto the pick was the smart move.

03 was definitely the wrong year to not have a 1st.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 10:55:45 AM
I didn't necessarily mean the Leafs. Well managed teams, unlike the Leafs over the past 30 years, have won trades while giving up 1st rounders. I would have to do some research to find them, but there is little doubt they are out there.

I think what you'd typically find in terms of teams "winning" trades where they dealt first round picks are teams near the back of the draft dealing low first rounders for established veterans who can fill a specific role.

What we're talking about here is a different situation. O'Reilly's value is hardly a given and he wants a contract that, in most people's eyes, he hasn't really earned. As much as you want to talk about the "risk" involved in a first round pick there's also risk in trading for a talented young player who might have an inflated sense of his own worth and wants to be paid accordingly.

Well, deciding on whether or not O'Reilly is the guy you make that trade for isn't really our call. My point was whether or not a GM should pass on a player just because the other team is demanding our 1st rounder in exchange.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 10:56:16 AM

No doubt other teams have done it with plenty of success.  The Leafs haven't been gambling those picks at the right time, almost ever. 

Philli used to throw 1sts around like candy yet they always managed to work things out and usually recover the pick at some point. 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 11:01:11 AM

No doubt other teams have done it with plenty of success.  The Leafs haven't been gambling those picks at the right time, almost ever. 

Philli used to throw 1sts around like candy yet they always managed to work things out and usually recover the pick at some point.

Yep. It can/should be done for the right player at the right time. (Although sometimes you only have a short window when the player you want is available) I don't know how much stock they put into O'Reilly, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 21, 2013, 11:12:00 AM
Well, deciding on whether or not O'Reilly is the guy you make that trade for isn't really our call. My point was whether or not a GM should pass on a player just because the other team is demanding our 1st rounder in exchange.

But I don't think the takeaway from the Kessel deal and why it was referenced here was as an example of why you should never, ever trade away a first round pick but rather that if you engage in trading away a first round pick without having a particularly good idea of what your team is or what you're getting then you're essentially playing poker blindfolded, at which point the concept of a "good risk" becomes pretty hard to judge.

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 21, 2013, 11:18:28 AM
That's true, but you can't always pass on a player that is age appropriate to the club you are building on a chance that a draft pick will help out your team down the road either. The leafs now have some picks and prospects in the cupboard. They can afford to trade away some picks for one draft year to bring in a quality, NHL ready player, as long as they continue to keep the majority of their pics moving forward. Remember, a GM can always trade away players that don't fit into their plans for more picks anytime they choose too.

But, that's starting down a slippery slope. Once you open that door, it can be hard to justify closing it. It sets up expectations for the future of the team and other moves would need to be made to make sure that the years before someone like O'Reilly would hit UFA status and even bigger money than he's already asking for aren't wasted. I think that's one of the lessons that's often overlooked when it comes to the Kessel deal. Just because the Leafs have some prospects in the cupboards doesn't mean that don't need more. In fact, it's quite the opposite - they always need more. There's no sense in starting move out picks and prospects now, because, realistically, it'll only build the team to the point where they'd need to be able to move those picks and prospects to get to over the hump and become a true Cup contender.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 12:18:03 PM
More statistical analysis on O'Reilly.

Quote
O'Reilly kicked off his NHL career with back-to-back 26-point seasons on Colorado's checking lines before vaulting to 55 points in 2011-12 on their top unit, earning him more total points than currently all but three players drafted in 2009, including the player the Avs selected ahead of him, Matt Duchene.

...

When players make that kind of scoring jump, it's natural to wonder if it's temporary, but have no fear. Most youngsters O'Reilly's age (20) haven't even cracked an NHL lineup yet, and most players haven't even begun to peak for another three seasons.

Sudden improvements can sometimes be explained by favorable playing conditions or tremendous shooting luck ("riding the percentages") and can therefore ultimately prove temporary, but this really isn't the case with O'Reilly.

Was O'Reilly riding luck shooting percentages? No, his shooting percentage was actually down last season, from 10.9% to a modest 9.5%. His on-ice shooting percentage was also down, from 7.7% as a rookie to an almost miserable 6.6% these past two seasons.

Was O'Reilly enjoying favorable ice-time? No, he was being used against the toughest opponents, often in the defensive zone, and the only help he got was from a rookie (albeit a uniquely talented one in Gabriel Landeskog).

Some players have indeed fooled analysts and fans with sudden and dramatic increases in scoring, but it would be very surprising if such a young and well-rounded two-way playmaker turns out to be one of them.

...

O'Reilly started off as a defensive star in the OHL, being voted the conference's best penalty killer in his final season, and he went on to finish sixth among NHL forwards in penalty killing time the following season—an amazing feat for an 18-year-old rookie.

Playing on the checking line alongside glorified thug Cody McLeod and the completely expended veteran Darcy Tucker, O'Reilly started only 43.0% of his shifts in the offensive zone—second lowest on the team.

It would drop to an even lower 40.0% the following season, a year that was fortunately spent with a significantly upgraded linemate in Daniel Winnik. His team-leading takeaway rate of 3.0 per 60 minutes went up to an even higher 3.6, and would somehow continue to rise up to 3.8 last season—all of which is especially amazing when compared to his stingy giveaway rates of 1.2 to 1.4 per 60 minutes.

To determine how well a team is performing with certain players on the ice, we like to use the Relative Corsi statistic, which is simply a player's shot-based plus/minus per minute relative to his teammates. This critical (albeit contextual) metric measures a player's possession-driving ability, and is truly the hockey breakthrough equivalent to on-base percentage in baseball.

In this important regard, O'Reilly gave the Avalanche an advantage of an amazing 11.1 shots per 60 minutes in 2010-11 playing with Winnik, followed by an amazing 12.4 last year with Landeskog.

While the percentage of shifts O'Reilly starts in the offensive zone rose from second lowest among the team's forwards in his two teenage years, his more balanced 50% last year was still sixth lowest. He also went from facing third line competition to being trusted with the second-toughest competition on the team.

In short, not only was O'Reilly the player to whom the team turned when top opponents like the Sedins were on the ice, but he absolutely dominated them possession-wise.

...

In the NHL, he has been even better, taking just 23 minor penalties in 236 games. He has also consistently drawn 0.8 minor penalties per 60 minutes throughout his career, a true and undervalued 'Moneypuck' talent that translates into roughly 0.2 goals per additional power play opportunity.

Speaking of undervalued Moneypuck talent, O'Reilly took 31.3% of the team's faceoffs last year, winning 52.8% of them, up from 51.8% the year before. Each faceoff win keeps the puck out of the opponent's possession, and helps give Colorado the next opportunity to score. In general, every 76 additional faceoff wins is worth a goal (according to Michael Schuckers' latest study), or just 41 on special teams. Last year, O'Reilly had 81 extra faceoff wins, of which 21 were on special teams.

...

According to GVS (Goals Versus Salary, which measures a player's contributions relative to a comparably-priced player), O'Reilly is easily worth $4 million per season today, just like Colorado offered P.A. Parenteau and David Jones this summer, and could be a great theft target if he is offered any less.

Colorado has been enjoying O'Reilly's services for a cap hit of just $900,000 per year throughout his entry-level contract, which made him one of the league's best values according to GVS. In total, he provided an extra 13.5 goals of value—or a savings of $4.5 million if you prefer to look at it that way—over his three seasons.

Turning to history to help plot his career path, the list of the most statistically comparable players at his age actually include Mark Messier and Joe Thornton. The closest match is probably Troy Murray, a strong defensive-minded, penalty-killing, playmaking, faceoff-winning forward for the Chicago Blackhawks throughout the 1980s, who won the 1996 Stanley Cup with the Avs in the twilight of his career. Murray, who was far more physical and had a much better shot, won the Selke Trophy as the league's top defensive player at age 23, something we wouldn't be surprised to see matched by O'Reilly.

As for scoring, both of the two most popular statistical projection systems (VUKOTA and Snepsts) have him down for an exact repeat of his 55 points, but with a potentially much higher long-term upside.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1423
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 12:30:40 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: OldTimeHockey on February 21, 2013, 01:15:20 PM
Perhaps he realizes it may be a flash in the pan and that's the reason he's holding out for the big pay cheque. I sure as heck hope that the Leafs don't pay it.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 02:55:22 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   

You could say that about any young player really, but his comparable PPG stats at his age are impressive.  I don't think anyone is saying to base any decision on O'Reilly based solely off of numbers, but based upon a combination of watching him play, scouting, and statistics.  Even the most ardent advanced stats guys only advocate using them in combination with other traditional tools, and in context. 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 21, 2013, 03:08:52 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   

You could say that about any young player really, but his comparable PPG stats at his age are impressive.  I don't think anyone is saying to base any decision on O'Reilly based solely off of numbers, but based upon a combination of watching him play, scouting, and statistics.  Even the most ardent advanced stats guys only advocate using them in combination with other traditional tools, and in context.

Well I've seen at least one site (PPP) putting him up there with Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, Stamkos, Skinner as playres who have produced similar stats while under 20 years old. 

Soooo yeah some lofty assumptions going on based on one year of numbers, and only numbers from that particular point of view.  Seen a lot of others using stats only to justify the ROR fetish.

I agree with you ... based on what eyeballs have seen of this guy you make the call and the nice looking stats are one piece of info.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 03:17:16 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   

You could say that about any young player really, but his comparable PPG stats at his age are impressive.  I don't think anyone is saying to base any decision on O'Reilly based solely off of numbers, but based upon a combination of watching him play, scouting, and statistics.  Even the most ardent advanced stats guys only advocate using them in combination with other traditional tools, and in context.

Well I've seen at least one site (PPP) putting him up there with Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, Stamkos, Skinner as playres who have produced similar stats while under 20 years old. 

Soooo yeah some lofty assumptions going on based on one year of numbers, and only numbers from that particular point of view.  Seen a lot of others using stats only to justify the ROR fetish.

I agree with you ... based on what eyeballs have seen of this guy you make the call and the nice looking stats are one piece of info.

I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 21, 2013, 03:39:49 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   

You could say that about any young player really, but his comparable PPG stats at his age are impressive.  I don't think anyone is saying to base any decision on O'Reilly based solely off of numbers, but based upon a combination of watching him play, scouting, and statistics.  Even the most ardent advanced stats guys only advocate using them in combination with other traditional tools, and in context.

Well I've seen at least one site (PPP) putting him up there with Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, Stamkos, Skinner as playres who have produced similar stats while under 20 years old. 

Soooo yeah some lofty assumptions going on based on one year of numbers, and only numbers from that particular point of view.  Seen a lot of others using stats only to justify the ROR fetish.

I agree with you ... based on what eyeballs have seen of this guy you make the call and the nice looking stats are one piece of info.

I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

I wouldn't move a significant amount for about half of those guys.

So it's about 50/50. If he turns out to be Thornton, Lecavalier, Spezza or Getzlaf you win the trade.

If his career goes the direction of the others.......well they're hardly franchise cornerstones.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 03:48:26 PM
The majority are all either very good to great players (or were in their prime) though.  Just a matter of making an 'educated guess' on him.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: princedpw on February 21, 2013, 03:50:25 PM
His numbers all look really good, but... it's.... just....one... season... of ... success.  We've seen a million times guys have a huge season and then never repeat it.  How do we know he's going to continue to get better or worse, not regress?

Too small a body of work to base a decision on stats, IMO.  If I were a GM I would be digging up 5 years of scouting notes on this guy plus what my pro scout eyes have seen this past year.   

You could say that about any young player really, but his comparable PPG stats at his age are impressive.  I don't think anyone is saying to base any decision on O'Reilly based solely off of numbers, but based upon a combination of watching him play, scouting, and statistics.  Even the most ardent advanced stats guys only advocate using them in combination with other traditional tools, and in context.

Well I've seen at least one site (PPP) putting him up there with Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, Stamkos, Skinner as playres who have produced similar stats while under 20 years old. 

Soooo yeah some lofty assumptions going on based on one year of numbers, and only numbers from that particular point of view.  Seen a lot of others using stats only to justify the ROR fetish.

I certainly haven't seen all the comparisons made in the world, but I have seen a few.  I haven't seen anyone compare him to Crosby, Malkin, Ovie, or Stamkos. Obviously, those comparisons would be inaccurate and no sensible person expects him to be that good and his stats at age 20 don't come remotely close to any of those guys.  eg:  Malkin as a rookie at 20 scored 85 points.  Stamkos scored 95 and 51 goals in his second season (as a 19-20 year old) ... Ovie, Crosby, etc.

I think people are suggesting he may become a top 25 center (still an incredibly valuable and hard-to-get commodity) but not a top 5 center.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: princedpw on February 21, 2013, 04:10:08 PM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

I wouldn't move a significant amount for about half of those guys.

So it's about 50/50. If he turns out to be Thornton, Lecavalier, Spezza or Getzlaf you win the trade.

If his career goes the direction of the others.......well they're hardly franchise cornerstones.
[/quote]

If those guys accurately represent the probability distribution of O'Reilly's scoring career, that is pretty spectacular and one should really have to give up a lot to get a 20-year-old with that kind of projection.  That looks like the kind of projection you'd get for perhaps a #2 overall draft pick.  There are only 2 busts (Wolski, Bernier).  Of course #2 overalls will bust some times too.  I would say that a *center* with the scoring potential of Tanguay, Horton, or Havlat in their prime coupled with what I've heard about O'Reilly's incredible defensive potential (some say future selke candidate) would very, very comfortably make him a first-line center.  Eg:  Horton-as-center-with-great-defence sounds like Patrice Bergeron, but a slightly better goal scorer.  That would appear to be the kind of guy that could help anchor a stanley cup run.  Tanguay had multiple ppg seasons --- imagine if he actually played on the defensive side of the ice against top opponents!
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zee on February 21, 2013, 04:10:59 PM
I hope he gets traded to some other team soon so we can stop talking about this guy.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 04:14:42 PM
I hope he gets traded to some other team soon so we can stop talking about this guy.

I should point out that I'm not necessarily advocating breaking the bank to get him, but just presenting the argument that I think he's going to be a very good, very valuable player that I would love to have.  I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions, though. 
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 21, 2013, 04:18:14 PM
I hope he gets traded to some other team soon so we can stop talking about this guy.

I hope Nonis makes a good trade to come play for the Leafs so we can talk about him some more.  ;)
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Britishbulldog on February 21, 2013, 10:17:24 PM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

There is a small detail being over looked when 5'11" ROR is being compared to Lecavalier, Thornton, and Getzlaf.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 21, 2013, 10:28:28 PM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

There is a small detail being over looked when 5'11" ROR is being compared to Lecavalier, Thornton, and Getzlaf.

That's because it's a list of comparable PPG players at that age, not similar players in height.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Britishbulldog on February 21, 2013, 10:35:27 PM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

There is a small detail being over looked when 5'11" ROR is being compared to Lecavalier, Thornton, and Getzlaf.

That's because it's a list of comparable PPG players at that age, not similar players in height.

Oh.  I overlooked that....
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Significantly Insignificant on February 22, 2013, 09:46:01 AM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

There is a small detail being over looked when 5'11" ROR is being compared to Lecavalier, Thornton, and Getzlaf.

That's because it's a list of comparable PPG players at that age, not similar players in height.

Oh.  I overlooked that....

Much like any centre who is over 6'1" will be overlooking him....
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Corn Flake on February 22, 2013, 09:53:52 AM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

Sorry I should be more clear.. it wasn't a piece on their site it was a tweet with a link to a search result on hockey reference and it had O'Rielly in and amongst the guys I mentioned.  I don't really read their site so I hadn't seen this piece.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 22, 2013, 02:24:08 PM
I hope he gets traded to some other team soon so we can stop talking about this guy.

I should point out that I'm not necessarily advocating breaking the bank to get him, but just presenting the argument that I think he's going to be a very good, very valuable player that I would love to have.  I'm glad I don't have to make these decisions, though.

I want him a Leaf so I can feverishly work on popularizing a new nickname for him.... 'Baba' O'Reilly.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on February 22, 2013, 07:40:01 PM
Who??
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on February 22, 2013, 10:11:20 PM
Who??

Yep.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 22, 2013, 10:15:19 PM
I'm not sure what PPP post you're talking about, but I posted one earlier that had comparables from their site and none of them are those players:

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2013/2/4/3938826/why-the-maple-leafs-should-offer-sheet-ryan-oreilly

Lecavalier, Thornton, Spezza, Havlat, Bernier, Getzlaf, Tanguay, Wolski, Horton

Sorry I should be more clear.. it wasn't a piece on their site it was a tweet with a link to a search result on hockey reference and it had O'Rielly in and amongst the guys I mentioned.  I don't really read their site so I hadn't seen this piece.

Probably thinking of this: http://www.tsn.ca/fantasy_news/story/?id=416077

It is just comparing the number of minutes O'Reilly played at ages 18 and 19.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: nutman on February 27, 2013, 03:36:30 PM
This kid sounds tempting, but I wouldnt give up much for him.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Hampreacher on February 28, 2013, 07:40:05 PM
Flames reportedly signed him to an offer sheet. Leafs out of running now.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: sneakyray on February 28, 2013, 09:52:56 PM
avs matched...per tsn
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Spider on February 28, 2013, 10:15:22 PM
avs matched...per tsn

Maybe a sign and trade?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 28, 2013, 10:19:26 PM
avs matched...per tsn

Maybe a sign and trade?

Can't be traded for a calendar year.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: L K on February 28, 2013, 10:19:56 PM
avs matched...per tsn

Maybe a sign and trade?

They can't trade him for another 365 days, so a pretty prolonged one if it is.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Nik the Trik on February 28, 2013, 10:25:20 PM
So his salary is pro-rated but he gets the 2.5 right upfront, yeah?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on February 28, 2013, 10:29:33 PM
So his salary is pro-rated but he gets the 2.5 right upfront, yeah?

Yup. Pretty good deal for him.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Rebel_1812 on March 18, 2013, 01:57:50 AM
So his salary is pro-rated but he gets the 2.5 right upfront, yeah?

Yup. Pretty good deal for him.

Yeah, Colorado caved.  Which they pretty much had to.  Pay up or lose him.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: hockeyfan1 on January 18, 2015, 07:38:10 PM
Leafs interested in O'Reilly...

Nick Kypreos   @RealKyper[/color]
#Avs putting out feelers on Ryan O'Reilly as they search for D help. 2 teams showing interest include #Sabres #Leafs

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/maple-leafs-interested-in-avalanches-oreilly/

Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: sickbeast on January 18, 2015, 08:04:49 PM
The leafs need to trade pretty much the whole team at this point for picks and they need to tank.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: AvroArrow on January 19, 2015, 11:58:54 AM
The leafs need to trade pretty much the whole team at this point for picks and they need to tank.

This.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on January 19, 2015, 12:54:48 PM
The leafs need to trade pretty much the whole team at this point for picks and they need to tank.

This.

I don't think anybody's holding their breath for this to happen. The best we could probably hope for is a few new faces and a few departures. Lets just hope they are bigger names that are coming and going and not just a couple of fringe players.

O'Reilly would be a real nice addition, but who goes back to Colorado to make it happen? Phaneuf, Rielly, Gardiner, Franson? A combination of defensemen and forwards?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on January 19, 2015, 03:23:37 PM
I would prefer to give up Franson over Gardiner and Bozak can go as well.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on January 20, 2015, 02:32:55 PM
Oh I thought they were ready to deal Baba O Rielly..we won't get fooled again.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: LuncheonMeat on January 24, 2015, 08:41:48 PM
I thought this was a pretty good read by Stephen Burtch (who I enjoy reading), who makes a case for acquiring O'Reilly.  Part of it is about Kadri's development and growth toward being a 1C, and the other is about O'Reilly as an upgrade over Bozak on the second line.  He could help upgrade the defence and drive more possession, and maybe shelter guys like JVR/Kessel. 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/why-the-maple-leafs-should-trade-for-ryan-oreilly/

I kind of like the idea...   8)
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Rebel_1812 on January 24, 2015, 09:48:46 PM
I would prefer to give up Franson over Gardiner and Bozak can go as well.

How?  Gardiner makes way more defensive mistakes then franson.  Franson hits more, is bigger and has more points.  Franson this year is showing he is by far the better defense men.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: OldTimeHockey on January 25, 2015, 08:23:56 AM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on January 25, 2015, 11:02:45 AM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: LuncheonMeat on January 25, 2015, 11:14:34 AM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

I wonder how much Carlyle messed up his head.  He was making mistakes under Wilson but he seemed to be oozing with confidence, and really showing his potential.  Under Carlyle, he stopped looking like 'Silver Stick' a while ago, and just looks scared to make a mistake.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on January 25, 2015, 11:25:15 AM
I wonder how much Carlyle messed up his head.  He was making mistakes under Wilson but he seemed to be oozing with confidence, and really showing his potential.  Under Carlyle, he stopped looking like 'Silver Stick' a while ago, and just looks scared to make a mistake.

Yeah. I mean, I don't want to be the guy that blames Carlyle for everything, but, he did have some influence here. He definitely discouraged defencemen skating with the puck, and that hurt both Rielly and Gardiner. It was a strength in both of their games - and a big part of what earned Jake the "Silver Stick" nickname - and without it, they've both made more mistakes. Rielly seemed to brush them off a little more easily, but, they seem to have gotten to Gardiner a little. Horachek has removed that restriction, and you can see both of them starting to get their play back in order.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate on January 25, 2015, 11:46:15 AM
I wonder how much Carlyle messed up his head.  He was making mistakes under Wilson but he seemed to be oozing with confidence, and really showing his potential.  Under Carlyle, he stopped looking like 'Silver Stick' a while ago, and just looks scared to make a mistake.

Yeah. I mean, I don't want to be the guy that blames Carlyle for everything, but, he did have some influence here. He definitely discouraged defencemen skating with the puck, and that hurt both Rielly and Gardiner. It was a strength in both of their games - and a big part of what earned Jake the "Silver Stick" nickname - and without it, they've both made more mistakes. Rielly seemed to brush them off a little more easily, but, they seem to have gotten to Gardiner a little. Horachek has removed that restriction, and you can see both of them starting to get their play back in order.

They both need to keep working at their defensive game.  Both are more offensive d-men types and you just hope that they eventually develop into more of Brian Leetch type player.

But I'm all in favor now of keeping both.  I would have been happy to see Gardiner traded earlier, but I think you have a point about RC.  And it bugs the bejesus out of me when they give up on d-men too early (as in Stralman).
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: bustaheims on January 25, 2015, 11:57:43 AM
Another thing - Carlyle seemed to single out Gardiner for his mistakes in ways he really didn't do to anyone else in the lineup (except maybe Kadri), and I think that played into things, too.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Tigger on January 25, 2015, 12:09:16 PM
Gardiner is still learning to read the game. There's nothing wrong with skating the puck when you have the chance but passing is a very desirable and effective way to move the puck up the ice quickly, if we're picking one thing to point out, but he's also shown to be a bit of a bonehead with his positioning in general. He has a ton of skill so you can live with that learning curve, well I can at least, Randy was also the guy saying you don't really know what you have in a defenseman until he's played at least 300 games...

Scott Gordon on Gardiner and Carlyle.

“There’s this perception that Randy doesn’t like Jake Gardiner, and it’s comical,” Gordon told The Globe and Mail in an interview. “I can’t tell you how many times that Randy has said that the thought of trading Jake can’t even be discussed until he’s played 300 games.”

“He personally thinks it takes 300 games to get to the point where you can make a decision on them,” Gordon said. “Here’s somebody who knows there’s going to be growing pains. Is he hard on them? Does he take away ice time? Yes. All he’s trying to do is make them accountable and try to get them on the right path.

“It never gets played out in the media that that’s his approach; I never heard anybody talk about that.”

“When you think about it, where Jake has come from, in his first year to now – to me, in the last 20 or so games, a lot of nights he was our best player. You can say what you want, but it’s Randy putting him over the boards for 20-plus minutes a game,” Gordon said. “He’s a talented kid. And it’s a lot because of Randy’s patience with him.”
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Highlander on January 25, 2015, 01:20:59 PM
I will agree that Cody has been perhaps our best D man but unless we can move the Pylon or Clarkson, Lupul and Bozak where will we get the money to sign him? Hopefully they can move the Pylon to Dallas as has been reported of interest.
There is also no doubt in my mind that Gardiner has perhaps the best raw talent on the team.  He was fab in the Tampa game I attended a few years back, lights out the best player on the ice back then. Under Horachuck lets hope he finds his way to his true greatness, which is within him at this point.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: OldTimeHockey on January 25, 2015, 05:33:31 PM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

You could be 100% correct. Most players don't make the NHL without hockey sense but it does happen(ahem Clarkson).

The question then becomes, does he ever regain his confidence under the microscope here in Toronto or does he need to be moved to return to form?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on January 25, 2015, 07:19:56 PM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

You could be 100% correct. Most players don't make the NHL without hockey sense but it does happen(ahem Clarkson).

The question then becomes, does he ever regain his confidence under the microscope here in Toronto or does he need to be moved to return to form?

Small sample, but he's looked markedly better under Horachek so far.  Rielly too.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on January 25, 2015, 07:53:16 PM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

You could be 100% correct. Most players don't make the NHL without hockey sense but it does happen(ahem Clarkson).

The question then becomes, does he ever regain his confidence under the microscope here in Toronto or does he need to be moved to return to form?

Small sample, but he's looked markedly better under Horachek so far.  Rielly too.

Markedly better as in a difference of not too bad instead of horrific?

He's yet to play a solid game IMO.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: RedLeaf on January 25, 2015, 08:18:31 PM
O' Rielly is someone the Leafs need to be targeting. He's just the type of player they need moving forward. Maybe some sort of package including Phaneuf for him?
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on January 25, 2015, 08:30:05 PM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

You could be 100% correct. Most players don't make the NHL without hockey sense but it does happen(ahem Clarkson).

The question then becomes, does he ever regain his confidence under the microscope here in Toronto or does he need to be moved to return to form?

Small sample, but he's looked markedly better under Horachek so far.  Rielly too.

Markedly better as in a difference of not too bad instead of horrific?

He's yet to play a solid game IMO.

That's not remotely true.  He's had a number of solid games, a number of very good games, a number of awful games.  He's been pretty good since the coaching change.

The stats bear that out too.

Since coaching change:
CF%: 57.7%
SCF (scoring chance for)%: 59.6%
FF%: 54.8%

Before coaching change:

CF%: 44.8%
SCF%: 44.7%
FF%: 44.8%

I haven't looked any deeper into it, but from what I've seen he's looked good and the numbers say he's been much, much better since Horachek took over.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Rebel_1812 on February 21, 2015, 11:26:58 PM
Gardiner is a head scratcher. You can see the talent. And it's not the high risk plays that really bug me. At times he seems to not be moving his feet and watching the play develop instead of anticipating. Perhaps it's a lack of hockey sense?

I think, right now, it's more a lack of confidence than anything else.

You could be 100% correct. Most players don't make the NHL without hockey sense but it does happen(ahem Clarkson).

The question then becomes, does he ever regain his confidence under the microscope here in Toronto or does he need to be moved to return to form?

Small sample, but he's looked markedly better under Horachek so far.  Rielly too.

Markedly better as in a difference of not too bad instead of horrific?

He's yet to play a solid game IMO.

That's not remotely true.  He's had a number of solid games, a number of very good games, a number of awful games.  He's been pretty good since the coaching change.

The stats bear that out too.

Since coaching change:
CF%: 57.7%
SCF (scoring chance for)%: 59.6%
FF%: 54.8%

Before coaching change:

CF%: 44.8%
SCF%: 44.7%
FF%: 44.8%

I haven't looked any deeper into it, but from what I've seen he's looked good and the numbers say he's been much, much better since Horachek took over.

looking at those stats it seems like he is better.  What about winning percentage?  Did that get better or worse since the coaching change.  Stats are meaningless if they don't translate into wins.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Chev-boyar-sky on February 21, 2015, 11:43:20 PM
Is it just me or is O'Reilly having a pretty Bozakian season (worse actually) playing with better players and earning more money.

I for one, am not sold on him.
Title: Re: Ryan O'Reilly
Post by: Potvin29 on February 22, 2015, 08:51:08 PM
Is it just me or is O'Reilly having a pretty Bozakian season (worse actually) playing with better players and earning more money.

I for one, am not sold on him.

He's deployed like a shutdown C, always as been.  Gets the tough, defensive minutes.  I can't comment on how his D has been.