Author Topic: Auston Matthews  (Read 46778 times)

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Offline herman

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #750 on: December 01, 2017, 04:55:33 PM »
What I really meant is:  Is there an argument that Matthews is becoming one of the best defensive players in the league.  (I agree that the actual award is more narrative-driven and typically goes to older guys who have built up the narrative.)

Another way to phrase the question:  Where does Matthews rank defensively amongst todays centers?

(The reason I ask is that you often seem to give interesting statistical arguments.  But if you have no particular response at this time, no worries.)

You're making me blush.

I guess it would depend on how you measure a forward's defense. On the most basic levels, it'd be ranking things like Corsi-against rates, GA vs xGA to get a measure of the quality of chances and his luck levels. None of those numbers individually and on an individual seasons' worth of information really paints the whole picture. His CA is rather high (not great), but it is off-set by the chances he generates (pretty frickin' great). Corsi is a function of linemates, opponents, team structure, and individual skill, so it's hard to be definitive about it, but shot attempts happen so often during the course of a season/career that it can paint a solid outline of a player.

I'd recommend poking around corsica and playing with the sorts to see how often certain names come up for each metric you're thinking about. The current single score models (GAR, WAR, etc.) have some difficulty sorting him out at the moment because they have built in corrections for low sample sizes that push towards the average.

What I can comfortably say is Matthews is a very complete player and still at the early stages of his development. Offensively, he can burn opponents in just about every way: rush strike, cross-ice one-timers, catch-and-release, goal mouth garbage, long distance snipes, net-front tips, one-handed tips, breakaway/shootout. Defensively, he is smart, fast, strong, deft with the stickwork, highly disciplined emotionally and competitively, and very teachable. His only 'problem' right now appears to be the ridiculous confidence that he has that he can make every play happen on the attack and on the backcheck, and that sometimes pulls him out of the team structure (and maybe that's a function of his 85% health at the moment).

He might not be #1 in every category (speed: McDavid; shot: Laine; etc.), but he's hovering top 5, top 3 in pretty much every category that matters.

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #751 on: December 01, 2017, 05:02:10 PM »
Hey Herman, is there a statistical case to be made that Matthews might already be a Selke contender?  I believe he was matched against Gaudreau the other night, who was on absolute fire, and he got nothing. I recall the Chicago game where he dominated Kane.... His Poseidon stats are pretty good (not top of the league though)...

Matthews is Aquaman, confirmed. (E5)

Did Matthews just throw a trident?

typo + autocorrect.

Really?

We thought you were serious.

 ;)

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #752 on: December 01, 2017, 06:37:32 PM »
Hey Herman, is there a statistical case to be made that Matthews might already be a Selke contender?  I believe he was matched against Gaudreau the other night, who was on absolute fire, and he got nothing. I recall the Chicago game where he dominated Kane.... His Poseidon stats are pretty good (not top of the league though)...

Matthews is Aquaman, confirmed. (E5)

Did Matthews just throw a trident?

typo + autocorrect.

These things happen.  Some would say it's an adventure.
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.” - Khalil Gibran

Offline princedpw

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #753 on: December 01, 2017, 06:37:54 PM »
Hey Herman, is there a statistical case to be made that Matthews might already be a Selke contender?  I believe he was matched against Gaudreau the other night, who was on absolute fire, and he got nothing. I recall the Chicago game where he dominated Kane.... His Poseidon stats are pretty good (not top of the league though)...

Matthews is Aquaman, confirmed. (E5)

Did Matthews just throw a trident?

typo + autocorrect.

Really?

We thought you were serious.

 ;)

😉

Offline princedpw

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #754 on: December 01, 2017, 06:39:17 PM »
What I really meant is:  Is there an argument that Matthews is becoming one of the best defensive players in the league.  (I agree that the actual award is more narrative-driven and typically goes to older guys who have built up the narrative.)

Another way to phrase the question:  Where does Matthews rank defensively amongst todays centers?

(The reason I ask is that you often seem to give interesting statistical arguments.  But if you have no particular response at this time, no worries.)

You're making me blush.

I guess it would depend on how you measure a forward's defense. On the most basic levels, it'd be ranking things like Corsi-against rates, GA vs xGA to get a measure of the quality of chances and his luck levels. None of those numbers individually and on an individual seasons' worth of information really paints the whole picture. His CA is rather high (not great), but it is off-set by the chances he generates (pretty frickin' great). Corsi is a function of linemates, opponents, team structure, and individual skill, so it's hard to be definitive about it, but shot attempts happen so often during the course of a season/career that it can paint a solid outline of a player.

I'd recommend poking around corsica and playing with the sorts to see how often certain names come up for each metric you're thinking about. The current single score models (GAR, WAR, etc.) have some difficulty sorting him out at the moment because they have built in corrections for low sample sizes that push towards the average.

What I can comfortably say is Matthews is a very complete player and still at the early stages of his development. Offensively, he can burn opponents in just about every way: rush strike, cross-ice one-timers, catch-and-release, goal mouth garbage, long distance snipes, net-front tips, one-handed tips, breakaway/shootout. Defensively, he is smart, fast, strong, deft with the stickwork, highly disciplined emotionally and competitively, and very teachable. His only 'problem' right now appears to be the ridiculous confidence that he has that he can make every play happen on the attack and on the backcheck, and that sometimes pulls him out of the team structure (and maybe that's a function of his 85% health at the moment).

He might not be #1 in every category (speed: McDavid; shot: Laine; etc.), but he's hovering top 5, top 3 in pretty much every category that matters.

Thanks.  His take-away skills seem pretty elite too.

Offline sickbeast

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #755 on: December 09, 2017, 09:55:59 PM »
There is something not right with Matthews lately.  I think he has been playing hurt this season.  He just had a minor bump with Connor Brown during the game tonight and he was in major pain, I really thought he was going to go to the dressing room.  It's such a shame because he's Toronto's best player by far.  Hopefully he can recover quickly.

Offline WhatIfGodWasALeaf

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #756 on: December 09, 2017, 10:02:20 PM »
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better. 

They’ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.

Let the kid heal.

It of course hasn’t helped that they’ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative. 


Offline Chris

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #757 on: December 09, 2017, 10:34:08 PM »
That hit he took from Rielly looked like it shook him up pretty good, wouldn't be surprised to see him miss at least the next game. If he plays, they gotta get Nylander back on that line, that will free up some room for Auston.

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #758 on: December 09, 2017, 11:03:04 PM »
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better. 

They’ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.

Let the kid heal.

It of course hasn’t helped that they’ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.

This is a line of reasoning I hadn't thought of before.

But if they are shielding him it makes more sense to hold him out than saddle him with suboptimal linemates.  Although Brown can finish.

I hate to say it but I wonder if he will be fighting back problems his whole career.

Offline caveman

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #759 on: December 10, 2017, 12:57:15 PM »
he is not handling the puck as well as before...which makes me wonder if it is wrist / hand problems...

Offline Bender

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #760 on: December 10, 2017, 05:14:55 PM »
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better. 

They’ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.

Let the kid heal.

It of course hasn’t helped that they’ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.

This is a line of reasoning I hadn't thought of before.

But if they are shielding him it makes more sense to hold him out than saddle him with suboptimal linemates.  Although Brown can finish.

I hate to say it but I wonder if he will be fighting back problems his whole career.
Isn't the thinking that he may have back problems his whole career a little premature?
"They say you can judge a man by the company he keeps. So here is the professor's oldest friend, a grotesque, stinking lobster." - Bender

Offline Significantly Insignificant

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #761 on: December 10, 2017, 06:52:26 PM »
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better. 

They’ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.

Let the kid heal.

It of course hasn’t helped that they’ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.

This is a line of reasoning I hadn't thought of before.

But if they are shielding him it makes more sense to hold him out than saddle him with suboptimal linemates.  Although Brown can finish.

I hate to say it but I wonder if he will be fighting back problems his whole career.
Isn't the thinking that he may have back problems his whole career a little premature?

I think it stems from a report that he missed time in his draft year due to a back problem, and now that this has come up this year, it probably has some people a little worried. 
"Progress lies not in enhancing what is, but in advancing toward what will be.” - Khalil Gibran

Offline Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #762 on: December 10, 2017, 07:57:49 PM »
Yeah, Matthews is legit hurt and they need to let him sit until he is better. 

They’ve given themselves a little cushion by racking up points early.

Let the kid heal.

It of course hasn’t helped that they’ve added two worker bees to his line to try and protect him from board work and therefore opposition can focus on Matthews with nobody else on the line capable of doing anything really creative.

This is a line of reasoning I hadn't thought of before.

But if they are shielding him it makes more sense to hold him out than saddle him with suboptimal linemates.  Although Brown can finish.

I hate to say it but I wonder if he will be fighting back problems his whole career.
Isn't the thinking that he may have back problems his whole career a little premature?

I think it stems from a report that he missed time in his draft year due to a back problem, and now that this has come up this year, it probably has some people a little worried.

Exactly.  As a Leafs fan, my DNA is to latch onto worst-case scenarios and ride them into the ground.

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Re: Auston Matthews
« Reply #762 on: December 10, 2017, 07:57:49 PM »